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Guest Post: QE3 - Just A Matter Of Time

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Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:06 | 1345029 Winston Were Wolf
Winston Were Wolf's picture

No worries though... I know the wieners story is much more important, bitchez.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:31 | 1345148 NoBull1994
NoBull1994's picture

Hard to take anyone seriously who thinks White House is one word:  "Whitehouse".

Idiot.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 20:14 | 1345292 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Your the moron that told me XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation was a bad buy at $59 ....

 

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 22:21 | 1345689 Tejano
Tejano's picture

'Whitehouse' works.  So does 'presidential palace' - it has a nice banana republic feel.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 00:31 | 1345957 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

hard to take seriously anyone who gives a fuck if there is a space between whitehouse

douche

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 04:28 | 1346144 Michael
Michael's picture

So what do we call QE3? I think the ZH community should get the honors of naming it.

My vote is for DM3(Debt Monetization 3)

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 06:43 | 1346198 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

Ah, no no no, the word 'debt' is too negative, what about:

AI - Asset Internalisation

QQ - Qualitative Quantification

WR - Wealth Restructurization

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 08:38 | 1346312 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

PRP: Proactive Recovery Paradigm 

or Proactive Recovery Program

Sounds just dumb enough to be convincing to stupid people who want to feel important.

(Copyright 2011. All rights reserved). I dare them to use it.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 13:14 | 1347350 Ryman1075
Ryman1075's picture

Please give us the address for your blog, we would love to read it...

Oh? You don't have a blog? Maybe you should start one and write stories about the "White House".

Your post and my response just stole 2 minutes of my life that I will never get back...thanks man.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:09 | 1345038 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I think that Tyler and the fantastic staff of Z/H put the point in(on) the HEAD.  QE-#3 is the antimatter of QE-2  

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 20:46 | 1345377 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

QE 3 Schmuee 3, it doesn't matter at the rate the real economy is collapsing at. QE 3 will hit when it has the most impact, around the end of Sept to Oct when the market is in full crash mode.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 22:42 | 1345743 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

QE, the Fukushima of monetary policy!

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:06 | 1345040 kito
kito's picture

all the analysis in the world does not foretell the future.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:40 | 1345171 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

And if it did, the game would be even more rigged than it already is.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 00:09 | 1345915 Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

Jim Sinclair has been saying QE to infinity for years.  His track record has been "almost"  precise since 2001

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 01:34 | 1346045 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

same with Marc Faber

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:11 | 1345044 benkei54
benkei54's picture

It's not about Obama - Ben has to bail out Lloyd.  They were college buddies at Winthrop House  - Harvard Class of '75.  Check the yearbook.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:32 | 1345156 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

I would not count on the old friendship as a lock to future bets. Ben does have a Rothchild as a boss.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:58 | 1345218 TheJudge2012
TheJudge2012's picture

Obama is used up & done far as I can see, and there will be a fake Republican to take his place. Can't let the dollar collapse too soon when they want war, more war, MORE WAR!!!

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 20:24 | 1345328 Manthong
Mon, 06/06/2011 - 22:50 | 1345770 tired1
tired1's picture

Is this fake gonna have nice tits?

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:16 | 1345052 Michael Victory
Michael Victory's picture

QEX

 

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:16 | 1345062 augie
augie's picture

FInally, the elephant is out of the closet. Or is it the gorilla in the kitchen?

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:23 | 1345097 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

The bull in the china shop

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:37 | 1345164 augie
augie's picture

The chicken is in the pot.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:42 | 1345179 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

The fox is in the henhouse.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:44 | 1345190 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Like finding a diamond in a haystack. 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 03:59 | 1346134 mee-mee-mee
mee-mee-mee's picture

off like dads pants on pay day.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:45 | 1345191 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

The snake is in the grass.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:47 | 1345210 augie
augie's picture

My balls in Bernanke's mouth...... too far?

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:57 | 1345236 tawdzilla
tawdzilla's picture

...And monkeys will fly out my butt.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:59 | 1345244 sabra1
sabra1's picture

weiner in someones buns!

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 20:23 | 1345310 Michael Victory
Michael Victory's picture

hocus pocus.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 21:10 | 1345490 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

Abra pocus. hocus cadabra.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 02:02 | 1346068 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Colonel Mustard in the Study (with the candlestick!)

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 22:58 | 1345787 tired1
tired1's picture

The elephant is going to take another dump. Brace yourself.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:14 | 1345066 Shameful
Shameful's picture

QE3 will happen because I have yet to hear who on Earth will line up to buy 1.6 trillion in Fed Gov paper every year from here to eternity.  It's about what 3% in world GDP, and it's not like the other world govs aren't struggling right now (Name me one major not mired in problems).  Unless space aliens show up and get sucked into the ponzi I can't see any way but QE3.  Well ok there could be an honest default , restructuring, and cutting of spending...but I think the space aliens showing up is more likely.

But I'll admit I could be wrong, someone show me the deep pockets that will fund this debt with something other then funny money.  China has problems, Japan is a basket case, Europe is mired in their own problems with debt, Oil Exporters have a little revolt risk on them.  Don't think the BRICs got enough juice in them to keep blood in the US corpse even if they really wanted to.  Only thing I can see is "Caribbean Banks and Hedge Funds" aka the Fed funny money rolling this turd forward.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:21 | 1345084 Medea
Medea's picture

I think we should all scrap the phrase "kicking the can" in favor of "rolling the turd."

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:25 | 1345115 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

One of these days they are going to kick the turd and it will be a fresh, wet one.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:36 | 1345159 tamboo
tamboo's picture

forget about a pot to piss in,

qe til you wont even be able to dig a hole to shit in.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 13:16 | 1347365 Ryman1075
Ryman1075's picture

+1

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 23:38 | 1345856 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

All money is real until it isn't.  We all use the USD in our daily activities.  It's real.  It will only become funny when everyone collectively agrees to stop using it.  The FED will buy most of the debt it issues with QE3 and the money that's created will be real because we will keep using it... for now.  The cracks are being to show and faith in the system will continue to deteoriate.  Someday the USD will be funny.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:19 | 1345071 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Does Ben tweet?

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:19 | 1345072 Cdad
Cdad's picture

The "when" is truly the question...not so much the "how much" because, as the author states, it will fail anyway.  If they announced QE3 today, there would be massively negative implications for the US dollar.  The Dixie is still sitting in a precarious position, and a disorderly decline in the US dollar right here would undermine the attempt to stabilize things per the central bank planner's wildest dreams.

As such, I rather think a big bounce in the US dollar is necessary in order for them to attempt to maintain order with their pathalogical money printing schemes. [I cannot believe I wrote that sentence]

Then again, setting aside the "when" and the "how much", we're screwed anyway you slice this thing.  Sure would be nice if old Ben just faced up to the fact that the market [especially in housing] needs to clear, which means decline...and yes, the equity market would need to follow housing down.

Who knows in this freak show anymore?

 

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:25 | 1345128 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Decline against what?  Really all they need to do is take the Euro down a few pegs and then unleash QE so Euro goes back up and dollar goes down.  If they can sawtooth the Euro/Dollar down in a somewhat orderly fashion the indexes will look alright.  Sure commodity prices may be through the roof but they can try a couple of exchange tricks on them to at random to slap the longs around.  And with controlled indexes it's easier to spin the narrative that commodities and stuff like gold and silver are in a bubble.  Perception management at it's finest.  There is still wealth to extract, so they aren't going to leave this much wealth on the table.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:53 | 1345230 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Decline against what?

Ummmm....

Really all they need to do is take the Euro down a few pegs and then unleash QE so Euro goes back up and dollar goes down.

I think that was my suggestion.  The Euro/USD is the primary "risk on/off" cross.  Others would follow, and this would put a bid into the the Dixie and move it away from its all time low...which is not far beneath where it is sitting just now.  Not far enough, anyway, to graceful receive the news that QE3 is on.

The Fed cannot risk a disorderly decline into new all time low territory on the dollar basket.  The commodities bid would resume, and the conversations about hyperinflation would resume, inflation expectations would resume.  As such, it MUST bounce.

Get ready for the totally pissed off USD studman, with his tube of lube in hand, having recently had his way with Lloyd Blankfien, now ready to move on to other classes of folk...whose portfolios are about to receive a thorough going over by risk managers.





Mon, 06/06/2011 - 19:40 | 1345174 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

The Fed can expand its balance sheet without permission from any entity except the Banking Cartel that owns and controls them.  As ZH has pointed out before, the Fed can even use swaps/derivatives as hyper-leverage and hide it in "Other" on their B/S; just like AIG without any Goldman to margin call them into insolvency!  QE3 starts July 1, 2011 whether announced or not, IMO, (and that of many, many long-time readers).

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 20:16 | 1345289 Cdad
Cdad's picture

The Fed can expand its balance sheet without permission from any entity except the Banking Cartel that owns and controls them. 

Strictly speaking, you are correct.  However, to suggest that the Fed has zero political liabilities is not at all correct.

In any event, if the Fed does as you suggest, and does not allow the markets to function for even ONE DAY without its printing machine, that would send an incredibly weak signal to the markets and to the public at large.  I fail to see why you are confident that July 1 is the launch day.  Bernanke would look a fool and a failure [which he is...but...he's been pretty good at not announcing this fact publicly].

I don't agree with your calendar analysis.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 20:40 | 1345360 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

My point was/is that no outsider will be able to tell what the Fed is doing until they decide to tell us.  We all are familiar with accounting tricks.  Think about what they can do without an auditor!

 

You allude to political influence?  First of all, nobody of consequence in our corrupt federal Government is not bought and paid for by the Banking Cartel and the lawyers who serve them.  Secondly, the Fed may have Government appointed figure heads but even if that process was not corrupt, which it is, the composition of the Fed Committees that decide on the action menus report directly to the Fed owners, the Banking Cartel.  Look it up...

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 21:23 | 1345531 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Fed audits, the issue of the debt ceiling, rationalizing current monetary policy to the public...all of these things fall into the category of political risk.  The Fed requires political cooperation.  Up until now, the point is granted that they have had that.  Going forward, however, I'm not sure the carte blanche will necessarily remain intact.  

You say, "No outsider will be able to tell what the Fed is doing until they decide to tell us."  This statement is contradicted by the Fed data release of a last winter...as a result of an outsider who pressed back at the Fed with the rule of law.  It was this data release that allowed the American public to learn, among other things, that the Fed bailed out the Bank of Libya.  You are ignoring this precedent.  This historical precedent could easily be seen as a stepping stone to a Fed audit.

The status quo is a seductive thing.  This particular form of status quo is a tough nut to crack.  However, and as Ron Paul suggested, it is likely that the Fed will blow itself up before he ever gets a chance to shut it down.  This is likely true.  I think that is what is actually happening right now at the Federal Reserve.

Anyway, I am simply trying to tell you that if the Fed sends the dollar into a disorderly decline by prematurely announcing the next money printing scheme, and inflation intensifies or goes hyper, well, then the political liabilities of this Fed will become critical, the logical and last immovable object encountering the previously unstoppable force.

Whether or not you want it, I think you should prepare for the nasty, immoral USD studman to appear, bottle of lube in hand.  Whatever that means for your positioning, and no matter how improbable you might think it...I'd prepare were I you.

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