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Guest Post: Russia Bans Grain Exports as the End Game Trade Begins
Russia Bans Grain Exports as the End Game Trade Begins
Submitted by Michael Krieger
Come you masters of war
You that build all the guns
You that build the death planes
You that build all the bombs
You that hide behind walls
You that hide behind desks
I just want you to know
I can see through your masks…
You fasten all the triggers
For the others to fire
Then you sit back and watch
When the death count gets higher
You hide in your mansion'
As young people's blood
Flows out of their bodies
And is buried in the mud.
- Bob Dylan, Masters of War
Think of the press as a great keyboard on which the government can play.
- Joseph Goebbels
Has the Decoupling Already Started?
Two weeks back I wrote that we were at some major inflection point with oil being at $80/b and the market having had a significant bounce from the lows. At the time I pondered whether we might start to see a break down in the “risk on/risk off” mindset that has led to commodities and equities trading almost in perfect conjunction with one another since mid 2008. I said that I thought no one was positioned for a powerful move higher in commodity prices coupled with a flat to down market and that I saw evidence there was a good chance this was about to happen. I mentioned that agriculture, oil and precious metals would likely be the leadership to the upside in the commodities space should this occur.
Looking simply at the S&P500 and the oil price since that day we see that the oil price is up 3.4% and the market is up 3.1% so they have essentially moved together to the upside. However, the Asia Tapis oil price benchmark has seen a much more parabolic move in that same time frame up 8.8%. Meanwhile, wheat is up 32% and rice is up 12%. It’s a very good thing that food and energy are not included in the core CPI because if people around the world actually had to eat and consume energy there might be a problem.
Russia Bans Grain Exports as the End Game Trade Begins
I am now more convinced than I was two weeks ago that we are once again in the “end game trade.” Just like in the late 2007 to mid 2008 timeframe no one seems to notice or care. Back then the parabolic rise in commodities was attributed to phenomenal ROW growth that had decoupled from the U.S. and so no one really worried about the moves until it was too late. This time people don’t even seem to notice! I don’t even hear a make believe storyline that attempts to explain away what is happening in a bullish context….yet. The news this morning that Russian Prime Minister Putin has banned the export of grain and related farm products as a result of the drought is extraordinarily important. While the ideological nitwits at the Federal Reserve who pray to a false economic religion and Obama’s economic dream team of Neo-Keynesian psychopaths will completely fail to grasp what is happening due their never having worked a job in the real world in their lives instead having spent their entire existence being fawned on by their fellow academics and bureaucrats, the Chinese and others know exactly what is happening…
Before you rush out this morning and sell things across the board take a step back and think about the world from the perspective of government leaders. At a time like this when every government understands they will collapse overnight if they can’t feed their people don’t you think leaders are going to scramble like mad to get a hold of whatever food they can? What about oil? Do you think that countries like China might want to build up stockpiles as much as possible at such a juncture? Perhaps this is why oil prices in Asia are up so much more than here at home. Let’s also not forget that oil is rising as the economy has slowed. It is at $87/b in Asia and this is as China has tightened and cooled things off. What if they push on the accelerator again? Then there are precious metals. Anyone that doesn’t understand the comex is a manipulated illusion isn’t paying attention. More and more investors around the world are coming to understand this, which is why there is a movement into the physical. Real gold versus paper gold. Which do you own? The article in the FT the other day that seemed to uncover the mystery of the BIS gold swap is required reading (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3e659ed0-9b39-11df-baaf-00144feab49a.html). Here is one excerpt:
The gold used in the swaps came mainly from investors’ deposit accounts at the European commercial banks. Some investors prefer to deposit their gold in so-called “allocated accounts”, which restrict the custodian banks’ ability to use the gold in their market operations by assigning them specific bullion bars. But other investors prefer cheaper “unallocated accounts”, which give banks access to their bullion for their day-to-day operations.
The banks identified in the swaps were HSBC, Societe Generale, and BNP Paribas. First of all I think it’s insane for anyone to have gold within a bank. The entire purpose of gold is to escape the banking system once it becomes so big, complex and fraudulent that there is no place to go but collapse upon its ponzi scheme structure. I smell a rat in this BIS deal. People are not going to be happy when they try to redeem their paper gold. I can’t tell you how many people I know that are selling GLD (HSBC is the custodian!!) and buying physical. Of great significance is also the fact that on every orchestrated comex plunge physical buying accelerates. As an example, the U.S. Mint reported selling only 85,000 coins in the first twenty one days of July but then sold 57,000 in the last seven days of the month. This sort of behavior is what will limit the downside. There are enough smart people with lots of money that see the current system for the fraud that it is and are getting out while physical gold is still available.
Massive Social and Geopolitical Change is Coming
What is happening at the moment on the world stage is that essentially the governments of all major countries on planet earth are on the verge of collapse one way or the other. While there are certainly many differences between the governments of China, Russia and the United States for example, there is one huge similarity. They are all highly bureaucratic centrally planned economies. What is so interesting about the present time is that we are witnessing the end of the current monetary and financial system that has dominated the world since 1971. This will also invariably mean that we are about to witness dramatic political and social change in virtually every country on earth. The very elite in the United States know this which is why they are using their puppets in D.C. to pass laws that will put the citizens into a neo-feudalistic debt slavery so that they will not revolt once it becomes clear to all that the politicians are a bunch of crooks and scoundrels that have sold them out entirely. On a positive note, I think a critical mass has already been achieved in the U.S. and I think D.C. will collapse under its own weight. As I wrote to a small group of friends earlier this week as relates to the fact that a sheriff there stated “Our Own Government Has Become Our Enemy.":
It doesn’t matter what you think about the AZ law. It is merely a microcosm for a bigger battle being waged between states rights and the gulag federal government. The second American revolution HAS begun and it started in Arizona (I thought it might be Texas). Either way, what I expect to happen in the months ahead is more and more people are going to STOP obeying federal laws and ultimately states will also simply not obey. This is not necessarily what I am endorsing I am just telling you where I think this is headed. This will put the Federal government into a corner where they will need to respond. The stock market is being used as a government weapon to make people think things are ok when there is a massive tempest brewing that will wipe away the entire structure. Either way, the revolution will not be televised. Commerce will increasingly move to a black market model (l have heard big discounts are being offered in Greece if you pay in cash and that will be here too).
This all fits into the whole “Dangers of a Failed Presidency” concept that I wrote about around a month ago. Washington D.C. has now officially lost the mandate of the people it governs and this is a very dangerous scenario. If history repeats itself the government will look for a way to vilify another country or a group of people within the country. As such, I implore everyone that reads this to be as vigilant as possible in the months and years ahead. Do not accept war (don’t we have enough wars) and do not allow the government or media to demonize a particular subset of the American people. This is the oldest trick in the book, it’s the divide and conquer or export chaos strategy. Right now we need to identify who sold us out and how they did it. Therefore when things crumble we know who the culprits are and we don’t let them change the story and divert anger and confusion elsewhere.
My Interview with Max Keiser
Last week I did another interview with Max Keiser and I have attached the link. I want to address something I said that has gotten many comment and that needs clarification. When discussing a new political party in the U.S. I said the word Progressive. This was totally misunderstood by many people and I can see why. I am not a politician and I don’t want to be one. The word brings to mind concepts and an ideology to which I do not adhere. That should be clear from everything I have written for years but to some apparently it wasn’t. I believe in the U.S. Constitution as the law of the land and I think it has been trampled on by both political parties for far too long. I believe that financial oligarchs, and the multi-national military/industrial complex have hijacked the U.S. via the Federal government and the Federal Reserve and are implementing immoral and unconstitutional policies extraordinarily detrimental to the American people. I just wanted to clear all this up and hopefully will never have to address it again.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piXQGmJTt_g
A MUST WATCH Video with Yuri Bezmenov
Please take the time to watch this video interview from 1985. Yuri is an ex-KGB agent and he discusses the process of brainwashing a nation and describes how this is being done in the United States. It is 25 years later. Mission accomplished.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeMZGGQ0ERk&feature=related
Mike
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I would label myself exactly as Turd. I am very conservative. Yet, I am a libertarian IN THAT I want you to be whatever you believe in, and to have the freedom to try to do so.
Where I think I part ways with Liberals and many Libertarians, (and I "think" Turd would agree), is this: Do whatever you want, BUT YOU have to live with the consequences.
Liberalism, properly understood, is a dynamic, radical force pushing
for the liberation of individuals from arbitrary control by others.
It advocates private property, limited government, social tolerance
and peaceful relations with all. Over the centuries and across the world,
there have been voices calling for individual freedom.
Contrast liberalism with its nemesis, the conservative force of socialism.
How the Republicons tarred the Decepticratic party with this label, I'll
never know, since most contemporary Decepticrats support "Social", and yes,
"Progressive", ideas, which seem to always require Federal Govt involvement
in our lives. I believe that the Decepticrats CHOSE to use the "Liberal"
label to identify what they stand for, even though it has no basis in reality today.
I am sorry, what did he say?
What do you think the Communist where doing around the world during this CIA operation? Sitting on their asses?
Lets hear one for the KGB and Chicoms.
Just wait till the UN and the rest of the world gets to abolish the US government and it's agencies. Not saying the CIA is working all for Americans here ... otherwise the US elites would have never exported every tool needed to retain power.. stupid fools...only that the rest of the world sure as hell isn't for Americans.
End Game: Prediction of civil war in America on Russia Today TV
http://www.youtube.com/user/RTAmerica#p/u/6/0O4L0wNGgiY
"It’s a very good thing that food and energy are not included in the core CPI because if people around the world actually had to eat and consume energy there might be a problem."
Perhaps when this all comes to fruition, we will have seen that it all makes sense. Food, fuel, and water were all meant to (eventually) be allocated and rationed by the State.
And then the 2nd Revolution began........
"Where did all this start?" Where it ENDS!
With the FED
People who think they understand are a dime a dozen. Most of the events that will determine critical mass are yet to come.
the difficulty isn't the police state, its a state without police. when the police aren't there when you call 911, when the fire dept drives down a street of burning houses going eeny meeny miny mo, (Cedar Fires in SD county)when the cops just watch rioters loot LA during the Rodney King trial. Already the police are being replaced with red light cameras, ( they don't cost much and they bring in lots of revenue, so the cops hand out tickets for smoking on the beach..)
Recently a serial killer was arrested, the guy was a parole as a sex offender, and no one checked up on his whereabouts. They finally solved a cold case, after he killed another girl. The financial cops don't do their job either, or look at Wall Street. So worry about when there are no cops.
Secondly the Fed will impede their balance sheet to the point where the bond, or stock vigilantes, will take them down. Then we go back to 1913, and JP Morgan (and the market) will set interest rates. Such a move will destroy the existing political class, and a whole lot of second rate riff raff will be elected.
The border will be torn down and thousands if not millions will pour across - into Mexico from the United States. Mexico has arable land, water, plenty of coast line, very little pollution outside of Mexico City.
gold is good if you think the economy is going to crash, but after it actually crashes, not so much. food for shiny stones? what kind of logic is that? and with the technology build out not that much will change, you can still twitter your cousin in the Balkans, although there could certainly be some internet service shutdowns, and your brokers phone is busy all the time. that will destroy investor confidence, so they will keep the buzz going, if they can.
"food for shiny stones? what kind of logic is that?"
food for your paper FRNs? what kind of logic is that?
think before you type.
and gold for paper FRN's? rock scissors stone..
the grateful un..
Most of the posters don't think through to an end game. They stop with I get to keep all my money because there are no taxes because there is no government.
They never think what if the next gang is worse.
What if I need a doctor.
What if reivers burn my house down, rape my wife and kids cut my eyes out and steal my Gold.
So on.
What if folks make voluntary agreements with other folks to provide all the services for which government currently screws them over? If I don't like price or the quality of a meal at a restaurant I simply shop around for a more satisfactory deal. You can't do that when government doesn't respond in a timely manner to your 911 call or when the DOT fails to fix the potholes on your street.
etc.
Why do so many people believe that only government can provide security, only government can provide transportation routes, only government can provide education, only government can provide healthcare? When have you ever gotten a good deal from the government (unless you fall into the class of people who get "free" stuff provided by the labor of others.
"Why do so many people believe that only government can provide....... "
Because that's what the government tells them?
God bless public schooling. The first step to controlling the populace.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence -- it is FORCE!" -- George Washington
Come on, Gully, don't feed the Reavers. ...she had become like they are...
"very little pollution outside of Mexico City"
Ummm, have you traveled there much, lately? My brother's wife is a native of the area between Monterrey and Saltillo. I get to visit every now and then (helps when you have "relatives" there).
Granted, some areas are pristine, others? Not so much so.
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/stabilizing-the-global-monetary-system.html
In a world that was not make believe, I'd agree to the idea that "this ain't good" and harkens an end
but we've been taken down
now we're going to
strawberry fields
nothing is real
and nothing to get hung about
strawberry fields forevah
.....
let's just be cool and do the hokey pokey
Ha!
I just bought another 50 lb bag of flour.
The tomatoes are almost ready to pick.
Zero Hedge is like the truth, not always believable, but good!
Ha!
until GS is barred from trading in the markets,
the world is on course for armageddon
GS is just a Capo.
Until the Boss(Fed) and Underboss(JPM) are marginalized, the average American probably have little chance of retaining their economic freedom. Basically, only Dr. Paul will come right out and say the Fed needs to be abolished. The best anyone else will do is demand transparency. 99% of our highest elected officials can't be wrong...by law. No chance of the Fed being roped in unless there were drastic changes to government and corporation's ability to control it.
Since both political classes are the EXACT SAME THING and voting for a 3rd party has no real chance of accomplishing anything, I will just vote against every incumbent unless they have explicitly proven they are competent(I can only name one and I'm not in Dr. Paul's district). I don't know if there is a name for this party, the A.B.I. party?
i WAS THINKING THE Same thing this am. Just the help we need
We can see trends and likely possibilities, but the rest is fantasy. The same people who are good neighbors will be, the same people who are predators will be. Mad Max was a fantasy. The Wiemar mark happened.
The youtube interview with the former KGB agent is a joke. The idea that the Soviets or Russians are responsible for the U.S. populace's dismay is absurd. The US populace is dismayed by failed leadership, a hollowed-out economy, and corrupt Wall Street kleptocrats.
"The idea that the Soviets or Russians are responsible for the U.S. populace's dismay is absurd"
Except when we elect Soviet Style leaders. Accidentally, of course.
"The US populace is dismayed by failed leadership, a hollowed-out economy, and corrupt Wall Street kleptocrats."
See, you agreed with me!
This progressive business you say and then explained is still disturbing. I like you but maintain a level of caution. No, we need no third party. We need to take back the Republican party. Will keep reading with caution. Don't you listen to Levin?
New party is the only possibility. But not much of anything will change politicly until the level of pain gets much worse.
Ambrose seems conflicted.
04- August 09
Wheat storm will soon blow itself out05- August 09
Agflation fears as Russia halts all grain exports"They won't be prepared to survive, but they will gladly provide you with "ideas", "solutions" and "answers" rather than labor or barter goods."
Nah...you can keep that!... I'll take the strong back and vested interest as CC stated earlier.
Everyone should be printing off "solutions and answers" now. Example: knowing how to grow potatoes and making potato vodka (such as distilling) among other things. Food will be everything and will make for great barter. You'll get more for your alcohol as the situation progresses. Take advantage of the net now or you may be saying soon... damn it!
Rural land, hand pump well, plenty of rifles, shoot guns, stored food for a year, farming skills, chickens (eggs), turkeys, couple of pigs (ya know...for the holidays), gold & silver (buried of course) and yes a bunker!
Interesting SP500 chart ...
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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