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Guest Post: Sector Pitch - Underweight Energy

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Sector Pitch: Underweight Energy; Submitted by the Maize and Blue Fund, University of Michigan School of Business and specifically by Naufal Sanaullah at www.shadowcapitalism.com

 

 

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Fri, 03/26/2010 - 17:10 | 277525 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Meh, how about the fact that ALL currentseas are on their way out?  ALL.  Oil is the reserve currentsea now, along with gold/silver.  Demand may or may not move up from here; supply is diminishing from here on out.

Good luck to anyone on the other side of this trade, but I will keep ready for all currentseas to fail.

PS, The IMF and World Bank are coming for your souls.

Fri, 03/26/2010 - 19:03 | 277648 Pamela Anderson
Pamela Anderson's picture

Has anyone heard about conversations between nat. gas producers and electric generators to use more nat. gas instead of coal for power generation?

Changing topics, if you have time read: The Big Short by Michael Lewis if you don't have time to read it, get the audio book.

Sat, 03/27/2010 - 08:25 | 278003 alexdg
alexdg's picture

That's exactly what has been happening in the EU. Fuel (diesel?) based electric generators are being phased out for nat gas. Don't think there are many coal based generators still left.

Fri, 03/26/2010 - 21:29 | 277787 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

-1

 

Fri, 03/26/2010 - 22:44 | 277822 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

-1 right back atcha! USD strength or what? what have you? way to throw no punches, but think you fought. bravo, bravo!

Fri, 03/26/2010 - 22:37 | 277832 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

So I am going to reiterate because I feel that this is important. FIAT monie is fictional. The money masters had been trying for the philosopher's stone for AGES...then they found it. All they had to do was trick people....stupid people....greedy people. It is a fantasy....have you seen fantasia? you know in the end when "M"ickey "M"ouse gets cut into infinity mouses? There is your doelarr'. It is more readily available than grass. We printed more monie than our entire history (Revolutionary War, Civil War, WWI, WWII, 'Nam, Iraq, Af/Pak) of the Treasry at once! Oh, and if this is a demand issue for you junkers you did not read the slideshow. A major reason for the opinion of "declining oil prices" is the DOELARR. SHUT YOUR FACES IF YOU ARE NOT GOING TO READ THE ARTICLES. Especially do not read my post if this be the case. Go waste someone else's time. Go get some funny money and throw it at strippers, or whatever all you dolla lovas do, see if I care.
Oil on the other hand is running out, and this while 'merica and the rest of the world use it up at a record pace. So is gold, and silver. Very rare these metals. Super novas and such.
So you want to junk me because you have "faith" and "hope" in FIAT,eh? Hope is the most pathetic emotion in the metaphysical universe. Hope in one hand...."sit back and relax 'merica, everything will be fine". Well if it makes you feel better, if it relieves your stress, go ahead, make my day.

Fri, 03/26/2010 - 18:03 | 277579 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Like he mentioned in his last slide:Sovereign credit crisis could shift to United States, depressing the USD and propping up commodities (and thus energy shares)

 

With the US have about 1.9 billion bonds maturing, California needing another 20 billion anytime soon, further writedowns in real estade....

 

Whatever, the oil market is really unpredictable, it's nothing more than gambling.

Fri, 03/26/2010 - 18:05 | 277582 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36054221

you read this stuff every day, so I wouldn't bet against it.

 

Fri, 03/26/2010 - 19:09 | 277654 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Demand???

WTF about supply??

You guys' logic on this is so pre-peak

Fri, 03/26/2010 - 20:17 | 277723 e1618978
e1618978's picture

Supply continues go go up even though OPEC has artificially limited production.  We have too much spare oil -

http://omrpublic.iea.org/

Last time there was this much spare oil in storage the oil price dropped in half (1997).

Fri, 03/26/2010 - 19:48 | 277694 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

actually what's "pre-peak" is natural gas.  of course I'm think of the 90's when i think of "pre-peak" and not of the mythical "Great Depression" you all keep fantasizing about for some strange reason.  fascinating to see investment in a valuable resource continuing to drive down the value of the resource.  it's what we now call a "technology play" and now that the banks have been given a "new toy" to play with (namely the balance sheet of Treasury amazingly) that means the possibilities in this sector are indeed extraordinary and staggering.  this is not an "arms race" ala automobiles and consumer finance mind you.  this is "the real deal" with actual "state wealth creation" as certain American communities become rich beyond imagination and others are left in the "dustbins of history."  it's very interesting that the evironmentalists radar is up early on this one--and with good reason.  they smell big money early (greed "for lack of a better word") and move in "large" to get the media moving on their agenda.  this is an area which has the potential of being "larger than oil" because it's not as "needful" per se but "purposeful."  in other words "engineering heaven" since one is allowed to "look beyond the commodity" and concentrate on the device purely for the device's sake.  i think a big winner in this space will be oshkosh mfg, a maker of public service commerical vehicles including fire trucks and garbage trucks.  another is orion bus, a subsidiary of daimler out of upstate new york which is the leading provider of cng buses already.

Fri, 03/26/2010 - 20:27 | 277734 aus_punter
aus_punter's picture

thats an interesting post, thx

- now back to the fucktards to hijack the thread with their lame polemics

Fri, 03/26/2010 - 20:39 | 277742 e1618978
e1618978's picture

What do you think of PCAR?  Peterbilt also makes lng trucks.

Fri, 03/26/2010 - 21:35 | 277793 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

nice comment.  i think you're right about the NG.  2 years ago, gas leases up in the marcellus shale region were being bid for next to nothing.  now, all top $.

something's going on that's for sure.  either they hit a jackpot up there or they think the price is going sky high soon.  otherwise, they could have easily sat on their bids for years and let the people come crawling to them eventually.

Sat, 03/27/2010 - 14:01 | 278153 Sun Tsu
Sun Tsu's picture

Wind and Solar developers are racing this year to build and collect CONgress and TreasURY subsidies; each unit of so-called "clean alternative" power requires an equal amount of upstream instant power backup. Combustion Turbines are the sole alternative available to install now and get TAX-Credits for Wind and Solar.  

Wind and Combustion Turbines combined are Less Green than conventional Combined Cycle Gas Turbines.

Fri, 03/26/2010 - 22:24 | 277836 RobotTrader
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The beatings will continue until morale improves...

LOL...

 

Tue, 04/13/2010 - 06:05 | 297754 mark456
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