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Guest Post: Senior-Sub Question On Risk: Part Two Of Three

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by JM

Senior-Sub Question On Risk: Part Two Of Three

If there was ever a setting where you would think risk is properly appreciated it would be in European banks.  Look at total return on senior-sub financial European financials since 2004.  On a total return basis, European senior bank debt has outperformed subordinate debt.  As a matter of fact, you’ve lost money if you own a portfolio that replicates the BarCap sub debt index going back to late 2004. 

Source:  BarCap

Question:  Why is sub such a persistent loser in times of crisis, precisely when people should be demanding compensating return for the risk?

Possible answers:

  • In light of the bailouts and liquidity provision, you can reasonably argue that the larger banks in Europe are quasi-sovereign entities.   As a result, there is no way to adequately discern the risk differential between senior and sub debt.
  • Is this an example of the foolishness of crowds? 

 

 

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Wed, 07/06/2011 - 19:18 | 1431198 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Probable answer : That sneaky ass Bernank is in play there too.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 19:32 | 1431229 1Fatboy
1Fatboy's picture

Concur.  No doubt those banks' 'sovereignity' has well defined boundaries that stop somewhere around $855B.  Seems like that would have just a slight way of influencing events.  

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-releases-details-secret-855-billion...

 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 19:30 | 1431226 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Because in good times you pick up a few extra bps and in bad times it costs you lots of points?

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 19:34 | 1431235 jm
jm's picture

There does appear to be an asymmetry in investing.  Note the option smile.

But this looks instead like people systematically and consistently underestimate risk in times of stress.  Strange.

 

 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 19:52 | 1431280 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Why is sub such a persistent loser in times of crisis, precisely when people should be demanding compensating return for the risk?

Not to be a smart ass here, but... because it's lower on the capital structure. People always run up the structure in bad times. You can see in most occasions, sub outperformed on the bounce. Firms like Avenue Capital have perfected this art. Ride the junk higher and step up on the decline. It is "subordinated" debt after all.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 20:02 | 1431296 jm
jm's picture

These are a reinvestible indexes, not based on a point in 2004 and tracking return statically.  So as principle is returned and reinvested, sub is more risky. 

You would expect that investors as they choose between senior and sub would demand higher yield for the risk of sub debt to outperform the safety of a higher capital structure, no?

What this is saying is that investors didn't.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 20:16 | 1431330 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

But the graph says "total return". So, and correct me if I'm wrong, but principal appreciation or depreciation are also factored in... no? And it depends on time. Look at the outperformance of senior vs. sub on the 3 sell offs...

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 20:22 | 1431343 jm
jm's picture

Right. So in the face of one sell-off, then another, why didn't investors demand a return that compensated them? Remember this is reinvesting principle as you go.

This is equivalent to saying the sell-off was more intense than investors thought it would be.  Why do they consistently underestimate?

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 20:53 | 1431395 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

But bond investors are only "rewarded" for taking more risk by getting a higher coupon. Their principal isn't guaranteed to outperform Senior. In a centrally planned, extremely volatile world like we have had over the last 3 yrs, taking the more extreme losses during the sell offs was probably where the sub investor lost his/her performance. There's also the uber-leverage that most credit funds/ banks are buying sub with to arbitrage as well.

 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 21:42 | 1431472 Raynja
Raynja's picture

assuming these prices reflect bonds held to maturity, otherwise the graphs make perfect sense, i would assume that some of the subs defaulted and it is reflected in total return. people commonly assume that the added interest rate wil compenstae them for increased default risk but this is often not true.  that would explain outperformance in good times (increased spread) and underperformance in bad times (loss of principal thru default)

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 21:48 | 1431490 jm
jm's picture

I actually thought it would compensate because of the diversification of the index across EU names, and the blue moon incidence of default in said bank debt.

If there was a good chunk of default events, then I concur.  I didn't think there were that many bank defaults.  I could be wrong.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:47 | 1431576 Raynja
Raynja's picture

dint do a thorough check, back of the envelope, with 90% recovery (interest and principal) at 5% interst gives 135 (not accounting for pv of either) for sub and 138.5 at 4% senior. i dont know that these assumptions mirror reality in any meaningful way but they would provide an explanation for the downward movement in price during recessions. a print of the yields or prices would be informative for throwing ideas out without accouting for uncertainty.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 06:27 | 1431900 jm
jm's picture

Let me think a little more about this.  As the index is capitalization weighted, I thought this was an issue of price vol and insufficient yield to compensate. 

But if there are a lot of constitutients across the credit risk spectrum, then this probably does have more to do with default behavior in the tail.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 19:55 | 1431284 jm
jm's picture

I think markets actually do underestimate risk because they are short-sighted or look at risk from the perspective of the rear-view mirror.

Take the example of treasuries last night.

Most posters considered that the long bond performance in the firts exmaple was due to some idiosyncratic feature.  But long dated JGBs have outperformed everything in J-space the same way, no?

 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 20:34 | 1431364 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I'm going to double post tonight. Liberty post section is the next...


Today Obama Twitter'ed 'Be Quiet And Drive (Far Away)'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asqR6fDQw8s

 

Back at the ranch, LaGarde had her first IMF press confession. Do watch. Just keystroke to IMF site, posted the live feed this morning.

 

EU-IMF Program

http://www.kildarestreet.com/debates/?id=2011-07-05.146.0

 

7 flagship initiatives

http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/tools/flagship-initiatives/index_en.htm

 

*** The New Stability and Growth Pact*** <<<READ

 

Lastly, their planning has been exposed time after time. All we can do is point you to the playbook of facts that you will never read until it effects your personal financial life. To make change, it takes only one mouth breather to understand the scam.

 

Understanding Euroland Economic Statistics - September 2004<<<<< Read

http://www.scribd.com/doc/55807666/93/The-Stability-and-Growth-Pact-SGP-%E2%80%93-The-Stability-Plans

 

 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 20:37 | 1431371 virgule
virgule's picture

Maybe (debt) markets don't behave the way theories say they should?

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 20:42 | 1431378 jm
jm's picture

That's a reasonable answer.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 20:40 | 1431376 Fedophile
Fedophile's picture

Both.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 21:23 | 1431440 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

why do banks buy their nation's debt when there's a panic?  i would argue it's in the hope of being recapitalized after the proverbial "whoopsdababy."  unfortunately how this is done in the euro zone is simply unfathomable to me--and it simply isn't being done anymore by the Greek banks--so my guess would be "there is so much American money invested in Europe" since "it's like why do Americans prefer BMW's" that the EU does indeed have the most rich and powerful friends imaginable.  Having said that does not mean that God is your friend however.  I imagine he is the sort of "guy" who "witholds judgement" on these matters.  And since it would be easy in a financial sense to equate "oil priced in dollars" with "financial God" i would think the fact that there are interest rate blow outs throughout the entirety of the EU might be considered "a moral tale."  That's why John D. Rockefeller saying "God wanted me to be" the richest man on earth is truly instructive indeed.  "One may take it as a warning as well."

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:07 | 1431690 Anhedonia_Extremist
Anhedonia_Extremist's picture

pic test

 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:07 | 1431691 Anhedonia_Extremist
Anhedonia_Extremist's picture

pic test

 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:20 | 1431707 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

 Just buy physical Au and Ag and sleep like a baby every 

 night.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:24 | 1431712 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Ever since repeal of Glass Stegall (thank you R. Rubin/ S. Weill/B. Clinton) it has been a exercise in conglomeration for all financial services/assets.

Creating too big to fail, creating the destruction of the currency.

Holding them accountable is the only way out. Otherwise....we get Obama  and temporary chaos. 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:57 | 1431747 Peter K
Peter K's picture

And the answer is: for the same reason that Greek 10yr traded a few bp above the German Bunds for how many years? When the Euroland treasury market resembles that of the Soviet Union, provided that they would have had one, what's there to be surpised about ;)

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:50 | 1431842 Highrev
Highrev's picture

Excellent series!

 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:55 | 1431844 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

Answer:  Markets are broken.

Risk = loss

Legerdemain = gain

 

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