This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Guest Post: The Sharpest Rally Since 1644
Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds
The Sharpest Rally Since 1644
The recent stock market rally's manic force is deeply suspect.
According to my research, last week's stock market rally was the sharpest such surge since 1644, just before the Ming Dynasty collapsed and Europe was decimated by an epidemic of plague. Perhaps that is coincidence, perhaps not. The Status Quo always tries to brighten the outlook just before things fall apart, and nothing cheers flagging spirits more than a sudden rise in wealth.
The rally in barley in Babylon during the last week of December 1748 BCE was almost as robust, a peculiar coincidence given the next sharpest rally on record was the rebound in Dutch tulip bulb contracts which also occurred in the month of December, 1636.
Shares in the South Seas Company recovered much of their initial losses in a similar rebound in London, September, 1720, a welcome respite for all the investors who were about to be wiped out by the 80% decline in share value when that bubble popped.
More recently, condos in Florida saw a sharp uptick of sales and prices fetched in August, 2007, just before that market collapsed in a great heap.
You see the pattern: the sharper the rally, the closer the market is to the bubble's end-game. The South Seas Company is the closest analog financially to today's Fed-goosed stock rally; massive insider profiteering and official intervention pushed share prices up, fueling a frenzy of buying and forecasts of rising profits forever. In another eerie parallel, the South Seas Company's entire raison d'etre was to offload government debt onto a proxy entity to evade the perception that government debt was out of control. (Funding various wars tends to do that to national debt.)
Does anyone seriously believe this rally is based on fundamental strengths in the U.S. and global economy? Uh, sure. Let's be honest, the whole thing reeks of massive goosing by proxies with the goal being perception management. If the stock market is rising, wealth is increasing and the economy is healthy. Or so goes the marketing pitch.
With the end of QE2 and endlessly rising government deficit-spending stimulus in sight, the market sagged. No wonder; without the hot air supplied by the Fed and $1.6 trillion deficit borrowed and blown annually, what the heck is going to keep the Central Planning "recovery" inflating?
Nothing. Where does that leave The Powers That Be? Horribly exposed to the chill wind of reality. And what's the easiest way to engineer a perception that all is well? A massive stock market rally that forces everyone who bet against the Fed to cover their bets, a rally so sharp and powerful that it triggers every technical "buy" on the planet: Advance-decline line: BUY! Rising moving averages: BUY! Dow Theory: BUY! etc.--except for volume, which is declining, insider buying, which is as usual swamped by insider selling, and a few other indicators that the players can't control.
Doesn't it strike you as a bit too perfect? The central bank ceases officially propping up of risk assets to the tune of $100 billion a month, and in the normal course of events it would be natural for doubts about the future to weigh on risk assets. Instead, they all go nuts in a straight line up. Interesting, to say the least.
The entire ramp in corporate profits was a see-saw result of the Fed trashing the U.S. dollar. Dollar goes down, profits earned abroad in non-dollar currencies go up. Simple. But unfortunately for the Fed and global Corporate America, the dollar, despite the Fed's numerous arrows in its back, is still alive and is heading for its see-saw date with the euro, a.k.a. the DXY. If the euro implodes--and what exactly is holding it up other than empty promises and ECB duct tape?--then the dollar will necessarily rise, regardless of other conditions.
And when the dollar rises, Corporate America's ever-rising profits hit the reef and sink. It's really that simple.
The stench of official desperation is in the air. The release of oil reserves, the stunning rally on threadbare "good news," the touting of absurdly trivial increases in consumer debt--it rose by $5 billion in a $14 trillion economy, oh happy day, we're saved!--it's all so transparently designed to manage perceptions, because perceptions are what drive the "animal spirits" of borrowing and spending.
It's nice that luxury auto sales have skyrocketed to new highs--good going, guys. Wealth is back, baby, and everything's fantastic.
But soaring luxury auto sales might not create the perception the handlers intended. Note to Fed, Treasury, White House, Congress, mainstream financial media: you need to get out more. Goosing the stock market works for "your people," just like that last big rally in 1644 gave a warm and fuzzy feeling to the Ming Dynasty insiders. But it didn't move the needle on the real economy or dissolve the perception that the whole rotten edifice was crumbling.
»
- 15905 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Having weathered this storm, we need to get on to predicting the next dip. Don't want another 2 months like the last.
your right Aladdin. onwards and upwards! (no pun intended.)
your right Aladdin. onwards and upwards! (no pun intended.)
A key point he makes that I could not have said any better:
"...what's the easiest way to engineer a perception that all is well? A massive stock market rally that forces everyone who bet against the Fed to cover their bets, a rally so sharp and powerful that it triggers every technical "buy" on the planet: Advance-decline line: BUY! Rising moving averages: BUY! Dow Theory: BUY! "
The underlined boldface emphasis is my own and my point of the idiocy of believing that the manipulators are not more than aware of the technical trading community that perpetuates the fraud Ponzi scheme by feeding into their old technicals that used to be backed by volume and real market participants giving the price movements in the respective markets their legitimacy. If I had a trillion dollar printing press, I could put ANY market into a "buy" uptrend breakout Andrews pitchfork Fibonnaci salad spinnner Jack LaLanne juicer Big Bird boo-yah buy signal.... Watch out Uncle Ben, black swans seems to come out of nowhere....
+1111 well said
Just a last spasm of a corpse that has not understood the brain is long dead prior to the bacterial work that is about to happen.
Even the parasites that killed the host too will be cremated for public safety prior to disposal. I understand that they are developing acid disposal and pour corpse down drain as being easier and less energy intensive versus the fire.
I have an acquaintance that used to sell/deal a fair amount of drugs. This is a person that I pretty much only knew in passing. Anyway, he was one day discussing body disposal in Mexico. One day he talked about some guy that dissolved the bodies in hydrochloric acid for about $5/body. Then there was another group of people who would take the bodies out to the desert, dump the bodies and let the crows and ants eat the bodies, then come back and pulverize the bones to dust.
The world is actually a lot more scary than people realize.
I farm all my body disposal duties to a subsidiary in China. For .50 cents per body, they unpack them from the shipping containter, dress them in a Mao Suit, and salt them away at some party position. Oftimes they get a salary.
hilarious!
hilarious!
Really? I saw the DOW rally nearly 1000 points in the course of 24 hours last year. That seemed pretty sharp to me.
Really? When exactly was that? I just checked and besides a flashcrash there is no such 1000 point rally in a day.
The Dow soared 15% in ONE FRICKING DAY in mid-March 1933, when the NYSE reopened after the bank holiday. Last week wasn't no 15 percent rally.
Research doesn't 'show' anything unless CHS cites hard numbers to prove his point. Until proven otherwise, his assertions about 1644 et al are just a load of sensationalist bilge ... and way below his usual high standard.
Not taking sides as im dubious on what CHS is saying here but using the 40% dollar deval v gold to produce a 15% one day anomoly isnt worthy of disproving his claims.
Sorry, the dollar devaluation against gold didn't start until several months after the bank holiday. Consult 'Monetary History of the United States' and then try again.
I stand corrected. I think this is the chronological order of events :
March 6th the President forbade the hording of gold , $10,000 fine and/or 10yr prison(order 6102)
March 9th Emergency banking act (bank holiday) a de facto deposit guarantee ending the bank runs.
March 15th , first day of trading since EBA , market +15%
April 5th Exec Order 6102 signed
May 1st 1933 deadline for gold returns
Jan 31st 1934 Gold officialy revalued from 20 to 35
look at one year weekly and this candle stands out like a sore thumb to you
Extra Extra! Read All About It! On Zero-Hedge, why only yesterday...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-comparing-2007-topping-pattern-now
"117 SPX pts 10 days 8.4% increase Nov-Dec 2007"
So, suckwallamadugga, Charlie. Hi Zilch!
One day Charile will be right about the market. People comment on the economy should stop trying to call market turns. Wipeeeeee ouuuuuuut
As Marcus said yesty, and I quote:
by MarcusAurelius
on Fri, 07/08/2011 - 19:33
#1438673
You know this is mind boggling that people even remotely consider that this is anything but a dead cat bounce. What recovery in the past fifty years was quatitative easing used? What recovery had unemployment this high and with no end in sight? What recovery had consumers in so much debt? What recovery happened with no corporations hiring and afraid to hire. What recovery happened where proper accounting was thrown out the window? What recovery was there where housing was contracting like it is still? I mean this is as obvious as the sun rises that governments are dealing with a global depression becuase of debt. It won't be solved until the debt is purged.
Chucky's on a real roll these days, but prolly about time to STFU for a while...
Biggest rally since 1644?? Gimme a fucking break--CHS is the new Leo...
Go long, please. All in, if possible. I'll even borrow the shares to sell you.
what about the panic of 10,000 BC and the massive glacier short? no mention...
That was actually bullish. The distruction of the glaciers was epic and the resulting rebuilding added significant GDP.
And the glaciers themselves were only transient.
I am still short North Sea glaciers...
all betting on the come, buy the rumor, sell the news. trouble is the news leaking out (Friday's smployment numbers and today's WP revelation that the Senate Dems are back to smokin' rope)...portends a very, very bad outcome.
With that Democratic Senate proposal ($4 trillion in non-entitlement cuts, $2 trillion in taxes) Monday could be 'very interesting'
Since Oct 1928, The Dow has increased by 5.43% (last week's rally) or more on a weekly basis in 80 different weeks.
Articles like these turn Zero Hedge into Fox News Rants....
Which begs the question, why did he say this? His credibility will vanish in a heartbeat with historical errors like this.
Really --- I was wondering if I had somehow slipped into reading "The Onion" by mistake.
Actually into staged talking head arguments by forum, not on live tv. Less filling and less stressful.
I guess Tyler felt the need for some putative if dubious "balance", given how leo quislingasskiss' liberal-statist rants were turning his particular soiled corner of ZeroHedge into MSNBC.
-1
+1000. Posters need to get their fucking facts right before they come here ( or cum here)
The consumer debt numbers are giving a false impression of growth because the government has apparently added into the data recently government student loans. This info comes from Pragmatic Capitalism:
The Federal Reserve reported a rise in consumer credit this afternoon, but as I’ve noted in past months, this data is entirely skewed by the newly added Federal Government student loan program which has given recent consumer credit data the appearance of a significant improvement. If you back out this newly added data you actually get a continuation in the negative trend in consumer credit with a month on month decline of $1.6B. Year over year the figure is still dropping 5.6%. It’s not a pretty picture out there despite the government’s efforts to right the ship.
Ignore the credit card data.
That is just Physical Silver and Gold purchased on a unsecured credit card.
I didn't say it was easy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxREh0VcJrQ&feature=player_detailpage
Who wouldn't want a Cakewalk into Town though?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBGbrFlWwsE&feature=player_detailpage
No, you're missing the wood for the trees. It isn't about stocks, it's about bonds.
Where do you go if you don't want to be in bonds?
Hmm?
cash
absolutely. having said that REIT's are still the better performer--with the Silver Surfer top dog.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zueZJSVp7lY&feature=player_detailpage
And all these girls these days trying to learn how to
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M80mwMmv074&feature=player_detailpage
Nope, the reason you don't want to be in bonds any more is the yield is too low. Cash is lower still.
They are going to stocks and maybe gold.
Invest in Barley.
Someone else who reads the Farmers Weekly.
Interesting [do a grep of my posts on Barley if you want].
Sorghum
Millet
Gold. Make way , 1600 coming through. All aboard. DOW-Gold ratio still has oodles more room before it gets to a level sustainable for an economic revival.
Yeah, well you and I might. But the sheeple have been well and truly told that gold is in a bubble. They know bonds and stocks. Period.
So when bonds tank at the next auction?
When bonds tank at the next auction , the dollar will drop a % or so against the other ugly sister fiat currencies (yawn , who cares) and stocks will probably rally a fraction of that % , and gold will jump up another 50 bucks. Rinse repeat until a dollar , euro or british pound wont buy you sachet of starbucks sugar and golds >4k , your 401k still looks like crap and so does the chances of selling your house.
Oh , and gas will be still be more expensive , relative to your income , to fill up than it is now.
Questions?
My research shows a pretty sharp rally back in 410.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pqt9sVYA_eU
Frogs to the boil yesterday, plague and dynastic collapse today.
Tyler -- could we please move on to the more pressing "Alien Takeover" or cometary impact soon? Even a supervolcano perhaps?
I'll take the Asteroid any time.
An excuse to break the seal on the Schnapps, Pack of Smokes and a Lady to sit a while on that last day. Hopefully the light off the oncoming night of nights will be bright enough for a while.
Pretty good plan. Made me realise that I han't had a borreltje in 11+ years and a smoke in nearly 10. The while(d) last day with a Lady friend would work well though...
Ah yes, that would add some solace to the end.. a bottle of MD 20/20 red grape, a Swisher Sweet and a knowledgable beauty from the Bunny Ranch.
*dupe*
Takes all kinds.
MD 20/20 wouldn't be that bad if there was no tomorrow, I guess. Think I'd hedge against a near-miss by drinking quality hooch anyhow, though.
Think I'd stick with my own lady, and my current smokes- though I'd maybe try out one of those rediculously priced bottles of vodka that are shaped like a skull for the last night, and maybe throw in a bottle of absinthe- been too long since I had a nice chat with the green goddess.
Might even be some of the Lightning! Be a hell of a hangover and a burned out Liver... if the damn thing missed! Haw!
"You see the pattern: the sharper the rally, the closer the market is to the bubble's end-game."
Patterns are abundant in markets, the way this market stands everyone was long, so the slightest dip in sentiment, the more violent the snap...but that works two ways, if the sentiment should reverse back a week later then the shorts get crushed in a hurry. Moreover, on another day you would be putting bullish technical analysts in the same boat as witches’ and wizards.
Does anyone seriously believe this rally is based on fundamental strengths in the U.S. and global economy?
We have already seen that most(89%?) of daily volume is spec/daytrading, so its safe to assume that no one believes it, the stock market is now officially a casino- do you depend on a lot of short term gamblers to call the real score?
With the end of QE2 and endlessly rising government deficit-spending stimulus in sight, the market sagged
That idea is already starting to fade, the markets were meant to drop like a stone when POMO's decreased - did not happen. (i .e " Instead, they all go nuts in a straight line up. " ) If you look back to 1664 then all bull markets have ignored bad news if favour of any decent tit-bits. Nothing new under the sun.
Doesn't it strike you as a bit too perfect?
Not at all, since you havent been around since 1664, you have no objective right to discern whats "too perfect". Saying that its all too perfect is on par with a weather man saying that rain is going to be too wet and umberellas will be useless.
The stench of official desperation is in the air.
Maybe that release of oil was a desperate OB manoeuvre, who knows(i dont), but when you jump the gun to say "it's all so transparently designed to manage perceptions", im just left with a reactionary taste of bullshit my mouth. Politicians couldnt plan a blowjob in whore house, you should know, you elected them.
Not being cheeky here, but ZH has been spurting these articles for the duration of my time here, every week a new imminent disatser, every second a new reason to flip. Here is one of my first posts in realation to the constant barrage of bad ZH vibes "When i was 17 i took mescaline one night and had a very bad experience too. I sat in my room and watched the door handle expecting it to open any second, and for a squad of hairy men to come in and kick me and beat me to death with baseball bats and hammers. I sat there for like 8 hours hearing people running up my stairs with the intent to murder me, sat there for 8 hrs waiting on that handle going down, any second now...any second now...
Still waiting...Not only did ZH talk its brethren out of the biggest rallies since 1664(ha!), but when this market eventually does turn, ZH will be the first to be bullish. Its in its nature. Its so foward looking that it is close to backward.
You should scratch something other than your asshole once in awhile, sniffy.
TA is about as rational as Wicca, even more so in a market manipulated beyond any reasonable measure.
Commodities don't care if they are gamblers or not and you'll have a tough time convincing the guy at the Shell station that it's "just speculators" and he should let you pay $2.50/gallon.
Who called "drop like a stone"?...every deflation call I've seen says August to September. Keep counting those eggs as chickens though.
If there's one thing politicians are good at, it's bullshit and misdirection; we have decades of elections as empirical evidence.
Some people shouldn't do hallucinogens...I've dropped acid more times than I've gone around the sun and never had a bad trip once.
Stay long, please; we'll need the schadenfreude to get through what's coming.
"TA is about as rational as Wicca, even more so in a market manipulated beyond any reasonable measure."
Thanks for backing up my point.
"Commodities don't care if they are gamblers or not and you'll have a tough time convincing the guy at the Shell station that it's "just speculators" and he should let you pay $2.50/gallon."
I dont need to convince them, its not my job - dont preach to the converted, speak to 92% of the market, they might be able to help you out.
"Who called "drop like a stone"?...every deflation call I've seen says August to September. Keep counting those eggs as chickens though."
You obviously have not been paying attention.
"If there's one thing politicians are good at, it's bullshit and misdirection; we have decades of elections as empirical evidence."
Maybe so; but while you have decades, we have centuries of empirical evidence, and you can rest assured that its never going to stop, still dosent make them capable though.
"Some people shouldn't do hallucinogens...I've dropped acid more times than I've gone around the sun and never had a bad trip once."
Thanks for that advice, i must remember that when the schizophrenia keeps telling me to kill my granny by submission in a vat of boiling rat sperm.
"Stay long, please; we'll need the schadenfreude to get through what's coming."
Hey, were you christmans 2008?
Nope, I'd sold all my SDS by Christmas...and it was a good one too.
"You should scratch something other than your asshole once in awhile, sniffy."
He who goes to bed with an itchy asshole, wakes up with smelly fingers :- Confucius.
Only if he didnt clean his hole :- Scratch&Sniff.
Or if his wife did not clean hers:- Scratch&Sniff.
daytime tripping is the best, sunshine and a gentle breeze rustling the leaves
try a bike ride like Dr. Hoffman ;)
ZHs emphasis isnt on stocks going up or down, it is more about the deteriorating economy and the manipulation of central planners to hide the truth.
In fact they predicted what, Dow 36000 and have many times correctly observed that bad data and fundamentals and the djia on any given day are not connected.
The only thing Ive seen them push is PM physical and that has turned out well.
oh really.
maybe we're just looking at everything from the wrong point of view
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FB_Ne0SU1mk&feature=player_detailpage
New normal = +/-100pts or more on a daily basis. These are not the actions of a healthy market.
The question is:
"What role did Goldman-Sachs play in the fall of the Ming dynasty?"
PS: My Great-g-g-g-g-g-grandfather shorted the hell out of the tulip market and bought a fleet of canal boats.
And my granpa came back from the war between the states to build a railroad to take the load off the canal and speed up redemptions of accounts recievable.
Don't forget the 4...er....5....er....6? wars the peace prize winner Oblowme is pushing. Guess they figure it's now or never - time to take all the oil. Then again, one or two nukes in the middle east should really drive the price of FSLR through the roof...
But patterns are erratic, that only illogics can find.
see this for more details http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLxdjFuTZcA
Kinda reminds me of some Rally that Obama had before election in which he proclaimed that just because he was the Nominee the oceans were subsiding ,becasue he was being elected .. This nutty market kinda reminds me of this , or like when they were saying a few years ago to invest in ______ fill in the blank lol
Think about that.
I can't stand Obama, Bush, Clinton, Truman, Nixon, 99.7% of ConressPondScum, or any other piece of shit claiming to represent the people of the United States while selling the nation down the Yangtze -
...But Obama did literally tell Americans, at a Rose Garden Press Conference, that "now might be a good time to buy stocks," back near the lows in 2009, and it was one of the best calls purely on the movement of the market (whether organic, manipulated, government induced, orchestrated literally by Treasury & the Federal Reserve & PPT - whatever) that I can ever recall, and that I ever do recall by a President of the United States (I can't remember another president even commenting on whether to buy, sell or hold stocks, period).
Is there any doubt - ANY doubt - that this is not a total and complete orchestrated crack up boom, with the aformentioned entities literally juicing everything to the moon, for the last 28 months or so?
I wonder when Obama will comment on stocks again, and when he does, I wonder what he'll say.
So maybe we should collapse everything in on the Fed, close the private bank, and start issuing dollars (greenbacks) from the US treasury again DEBT FREE?
This is what Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, and Abraham Lincoln did...maybe its time to learn some of our own history, and close the 4th private bank of the US!
http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/07/secret-of-oz.html
No, that is the LAST thing we need --- just another flavor of government-issued, and controlled, fiat currency.
What we really need to is cut the ties between government and money altogether --- we need the separation of money and state, just as much and for analogous reasons that we have the separation of church and state.
Please, no more of the pro-fiat propaganda disseminated by the likes of Bill Still the Fiat Shill, or Ellen Brown the Money Clown!
The Fed, who creates our U.S. dollar, is a privately held bank, and that's working out well, huh? If not government created money, or privately created money, what are you suggesting, akak?
Can you not read?
I expressly stated that what we need is NOT just a different kind of government-issued money, but to get the government OUT of the money-issuing or creating business altogether, which inherently means having only privately-issued money, doesn't it?
Okay, did you not read my post? We have privately created money NOW. Don't you get it? The Fed is not a government agency, it is a PRIVATELY HELD BANK. So, you approve of how they're doing, do you?
if you go to almost anyplace on the planet, right now, today, you can trade the local fiat currency for gold and silver, and often for mint-standard PM coinage.
think about it...
we have a PM standard. it even extends to platinum & palladium, in locales.
right now, $1 = 1/1544th oz gold = 1/37th oz silver, and likewise for other currencies.
like it or not, this is the working system we have and many billions of earthlings use it, every day, many even apart from the banking systems, or largely so. india, italy, or indiana. russian, rocquefort, or ranch. really. think about it...
preposterous, the 1st week of July 2010 moved 133% as fast with over 115% the magnitude across all indices
They were actually pretty close to each other, I think this one was a little sharper is what author is saying (?).
Ramp job; rally paid for by Treasury and FED.
Look at the 20 SMA and 50 SMA for both Summer rallies; same slope down and ramp up as the 20 day crossed the 50 day, almost identical.
check out Y2009Q3W2 if you want another example of an even sharper spike preceded by the exact same topping pattern - not saying the third such spike in as many years is certain to be resolved the exact same way as the previous two, just that the 1644 reference is indefensibly asinine
Ya mas! Ooops, sorry, I forgot this wasn't an article on those hard-working Greeks.
Makes sense to me but I'm just a "DumbAss". So what do I know?
The action in the dollar last week wasn't screaming SELL SELL for the near term. The action felt like one of silent panic. It seems to me that the only way to get people excited about bonds is to croak stocks.
You can't buy US Treasuries with Euros. Or can you?
I reckon all fiat currencies are welcome.
The market will be making all time highs soon (14k DOW isn't far away) and official unemployment will be >9.0%. The term "delusional" just doesn't suffice. It just doesn't encompass the magnitude of idiocy.
Benny has to be teasing the insiders with the idea of QE3. It's the only thing that makes any sense.
Can anybody tell me why there is a discrepancy in numbers here, between this report:
June 2010, page 124, table 22A, col: June 2009 / row: Other precious metals:
http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qa1006.pdf
and that report
June 2011, page 134, table 22A, col: June 2009 / row: Other precious metals:
http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qa1106.pdf
???
96 billion dollars in "disappearing" silver derivatives??? That's over three years of mine production at current prices.
"Europe was decimated by an epidemic of plague."
When TF!!! did decimate become the go to phrase for calamity!?!?! The plague wiped out over a third of Europe's population! They would have been ecstatic with a mere decimation!
Somebody needs to buy these writers a thesaurus and a dictionary.
If only the tax collector shared your interpretation of deci-mate.
Hummm!
My research shows that 1233 BC camel shit rose by a astonishing 1200% in just three days.
Go prove me wrong!
If economies are entirely dependent on confidence, then lies are the greatest tools available to bolster it.
As Senator Kyl and many others almost openly admit, lies, so long as they serve a good & moral cause, are not bad.
The trick is -what to lie about.
If you lie about the things that are bad, you falsely encourage those who would seek to do you harm.
"Under promising and over delivering" only harms those counting on an economy to under deliver. How can you prove that employment is 9.3%, the we owe $15 trillion, that hourly wages are down and 30 million are displaced? Retail sales are up 9%, auto sales are up, corporate earnings are at an all time S&P high of $95.
Everyone's happy except the un-American naysayers who refuse to get on board and as a result are the very one's who are paying for the recovery by shorting stocks or removing their bad attitudes from the economy.
In a world where everyone agrees that government lies, why is it that we only believe that they lie to our detriment?
In a world where "manufacturing a crisis" is routinely used to gain political advantage, wasn't it really just a matter of time before they discovered that these "crisis" could be extended forever simply by always making things look worse than they are?
But how can you prove that retail is up 9% , auto sales are up and corp earnings are
at an alltime high, since this would all be good to lie about.
After all it sucked you in now didn't it.
You one of those true believers ain't you bud.
it's all a religion, economics start with a belief system and then spins
bullshit to try to prove it.
ZH has any thoughts about inviting Martin Armstrong to write a piece? If I understand him correctly this is still continuation of the private wave cycle that start in the eighties, where money from from the public to private sector. So this upward moves should continue until the cycle switches back to the public sector in 2032 (IIRC).
From June 24th to Thursday July 7th (which included a holiday Monday and extremely low volume), the DOW moved up nearly 7%.
If that isn't mania - in the midst of historic sovereign debt, unemployment, commodity prices, central bank currency debauching, thievery, and political paralysis - I don't know what is.
I have some lovely black tulips for sale.
This is the raw truth and plain fact.
95% of the people on this board totally missed the greatest retail stock frenzy we'll ever see in our lifetimes.
If you had loaded the boat with DECK, SBUX, PNRA, FOSL, CMG, LULU, ULTA, etc. in March 2009, and held on through all the bad news the last 2 years, your working days would be finished.
In fact, more than likely you would be:
- Done
- Finished
- Retired
There will probably never be another rally like this for the next 20 years.
A few smart guys on Wall St. loaded up, and they made a lifetime's worth of fortunes in just 2 years.
The reason there is so much anger and hostility on this board is because so many missed these eye-popping gains, never to be seen ever again.
It didn't happen in oil stocks.
It didn't happen in fertilizer stocks.
And not gold stocks.
It happened in consumer discretionary stocks.
Despite the thousands upon thousands of warnings from all kinds of "experts" claiming that the "Endgame" was near.
Lots of guys are going to start taking money off the table due to the vast gains on hand. Even if the market rallies another 15% - 20%, it won't matter. Huge money has already made, and guys who participated really don't have to take any more risk. Buy a little gold, and put the rest in foreign bonds paying 3% - 5% and they will be set for life.
Hitler did amazing things with the post Weimar ecnonomy, didn't he? It's not how or why you do it, it's just winning, is that it?
Already been there done that during the tech boom and just playing defense these days. So, you're style of trading is not for me, but that doesn't mean many don't appreciate what you bring to the table every single day. Things change, you keep us up to date.
I say good on anyone who can make money any way they can. If someone has found a sweet spot and knows how to play it, then they should go for it. Thanks for sharing at ZH every day. Truth is, everyone would miss you if you didn't.
So rock on yoooo..... bitch!
Okay, so why is this advice relevant to us??? You said yourself that 95% of the people on this board missed it. So what is your wise advice to all these people going forward? Buy'em up and ride the next wave to DOW 16,000? I've got to here this. Do tell.
Well said robo, but its lost on these monkey's.
Its cool to say "BUY GOLD, BUY GOLD AND BURY IT IN YER YARD, AND WE'LL BE RICH!!!", but some people wont look at the fact that if they had of bought stocks, oil, bonds & currency...they would be sitting on a fucking pile of gold rather than 10 or 20 so ounces. Sure, gold is a store of wealth and a safe haven, the trick is to go and get sufficient wealth to store, while you still have the brains to do so! Even a small amount of bullish spread bets would have got you all 100+ ounces of gold by now, yet you all junk this dickhead relentlessly for stating the obvious.
Robot, nailed it.
They were too occupied with conspiracy theories.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing. And since you did load up as mentioned, you have now retired, you have finished working. You have left the rat race.
No?
bobo stick to your 1099 filing.
Some of us have retired on winnings you will never see.
good luck , now get back to work.
smart guy.
So Mr Millionaire, why are you slumming it with the rest of us on this message board? Spending a few minutes with the dumb dolts?
The markets have become a freak show and a cartoon. We get it, Chaz. Thanks. And no quibbles from me when the Black Plague struck Europe.
The Bernank said over a year ago, out loud, pumping the markets for the wealth effect was his goal. Mission accomplished on that point. The markets are what they are --- fake.
Regardless where the market goes from here, economic textbooks will be discussing the "Bernanke Miracle Stock Market Rally" for the next 50 years.
It will go down as one of the greatest speculative opportunities of a lifetime.
I believe the guillotine robbed many a textook of an author.
The future is the judge of the past. Not the reverse.
not only that, RT, but didn't you, in a rare fixed income call, a while back, applaud those who were buying greek bonds for the interest? un-fuking-believable!
i didn't dream that, did i? you da man!
and yet, you seem to have missed it as you are still dancing with
that "state of the art" software system and ole Isaac along with some
1099 work on the side.
Your preening and after the fact bullshit gets boring, do you not regret it?
The stock market is a loser's game unless you literally are trading on inside information, which makes it a criminal enterprise.
What Robo fails to mention is that the Indexes are either at or lower than the levels they were in 2000 in NOMINAL terms, and that they are some 40% or more lower than where they were in 1988 in REAL terms.
Traders have to literally be right a majority of the time on direction, and they also have to ensure that their average gains are outsized relative to their average losses, continuously, BEFORE incredible tax inefficiencies are considered, to be able to book a long term net profit - and THEN, they have to hedge properly for the inevitable meltdowns, they have to minimize or eliminate exposure to the many stocks that ultimate crash to zed, and get delisted (index re-jiggering and survivorship bias is another epic scam).
But it's all so easy in Robo's alleged mad skills world, where he was massively short the markets in 2007 all the way through the 2009 lows, then went 80x ultralong on max leverage through last June, went short again until the reset happened, then went long...and so forth.
Oh, and Robo was massively leveraged short in 1999, especially on NASQAQ, and he also was massively leverage short the day prior to the 1987 Black Friday, but went massively leverage long immediately thereafter...and so on and so on.
Since bagholders are dead (see first paragraph), survivorship bias and the cute little 'Index Re-Jiggering' goes on, and you have to be either trading on inside information or one of the select 2% of traders who can bank net profits long term (as in anything positive, if even only 1/2%, before taxes), let alone the select .0004% of traders who can bank Livermore type profits (and Livermore was probably trading on inside information, but I speculate and digress), I am comfortable saying that...
...Jeremy Siegel is full of shit, and that not only do Equity Markets not outperform bonds over the long term, but they are the biggest scam, responsible for sucking more money out the accounts of long time frame buy and holds along with traders, than any other enterprise ever invented in human history.
But manic episodes where people buy tulips, houses or stocks, completely detached from any attempt to discern real worth, let alone care about such things, are fun as hell to watch on the upside, and the inevitable crashes are epic.
Also, and this is not to boast whatsoever, but I've done quite well economically (thanks in large part to some priceless advice from a very intelligent and wise father, some hard work, and admittedly, part luck, and I am very conservative financially, and I'd put up a significant chunk of my wealth on the fact that whatever gerryrigged mechanism, in its precise form, the Federal Reserve, Treasury and President's Financial Working Team have cobbled together to goose stocks to these levels of absolute insanity won't hold for as long as even the most confident among them hopes that it will hold - the inevitable question I will be asked is if I am now aggressively short, and my response is that I won't be until near election time in 2012, but I will probably miss an epic crash that occurs before that point (because I'm too cautious, and because I put foolish faith in the 'most confident amongst them who hopes the gerryrigged mechanism holds up that long').
There's a helluva lot of hope everywhere today, and for damn good reason. Hope and confidence are worlds apart.
The only thing I hate more than a crooked cop, a child molester, an animal abuser, and Hitler is a fucking gloating, crooked central bank.
I hope Ben drops dead over the weekend. Maybe his family can get a place to live with the 1000's of homeless in Orlando , Fl. sleeping in hotels.
"The term, delusional,...doesn't encompass the magnitude of the idiocy". DWDollar.
LMAO. Indeed, sir.
Seems that the reference to barley rally in Babylon,etc, etc are tongue in cheek.
According to my research, the author didn't do any research. Last week's rally in the S&P 500 was 5.6%. In 2009 alone there were two weekly rallies that exceeded this: 7.0% in July and 10.7% in March. This is one lame article.
For every Rally there is a DisRally.
Charles Hugh Smith
Very interesting historical perspectives to todays equally delusional stock market rallys.. we're stupid enough to forget historical lessons and clearly dumb enough to repeat the same mistakes.. Thanks for reminding us :)
Yes, decimation is one of ten, but is a term often used to describe an event with a much greater percentage of loss to whole. Don't lose the excellent snark to ticky tacky. Rome didn't even know it was on fire until a hundred years after it started. Nice one CHS.
Research and history lessons kids. That is what I like about ZH. I hope we are not doomed to repeat history. I BELIEVE ZHers will endure these tumultuous times. PEACE!!
economies don't exist outside of reality; unless we accept the US reality has changed; which it may have. That being the case, the stock market speaks to an economic reality composed of a huge swath of economic losers and a significant swath of economic winners. I would further argue that the difference between the winners and loser's is their educational attainment, leverage and access to government largess. When government starts to dictate who the winners and losers are; as it is doing now, your relative positioning with respect to the political elite is critical. The US is now a Post Capitalist society. What is becomes is up for grabs. Post Fascist comes to mind. As for the stock market this past week. It stands as a tribute to Post Fascism's ability to create a shared reality which the winners adopt without question as the regime's new status quo, the losers as market interference and those like me that enjoy the watching the events unfold wondering what our new fascists have in mind next.
As with all facists; discrediting any discent is simple using two words: Prove It. Create the reasonable doubt. Problem is how does a nation like the US create new wealth? that is fundamental. Currently all we have seeing is a redistribution and concentration of wealth. In a post industrial world we have yet to redefine what post industrial wealth really is. My clone? access to human body part cloning based on stem cells so I can live to 150?
Without a new wealth definition in a post industrial world we will continue to see wealth concentration into the hands of fewer and fewer people; those closest to the political economic post fascist elite. Maybe, just maybe as to China's adoption of capitalist methods the US's adoption of Chinese central state control.
Just food for thought and ramblings from the edge.
No way is this is true. What about commodities last year during the russian drought. I'm not doubting things look sketchy but this seems more like fear mongering than anything else. The Ming are coming back!
I'd like to see said research.
Heh, my buddy Peteybear over at Wall Street Bear chat admitted that he left over $5 million on the table by not staying fully invested since March 2009.
If guys like him would have stayed long, he could be done with trading and retired.
http://www.wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=83379&post=296327
i wonder what the price of silver was in mar'09? some people have kicked back w/ PM's haven't they? a few?
Happy weekend Slewie. You have been quite busy. Regarding (a=xag) 2009 12-13toz max... Of the top of my head.
Yeah, well, a lot of traders did not listen to Bernanke say he was going to carpet bag dollar denominated assets, and a lot of economists do not understand trading and did not know where the big money would be made (oil, PMs, and some fliers like WFM and NFLX [cough cough]). You have to know both sides of the field to see the enemy in the forest.
In the Ca gold rush there were crooked casinos. The "smart money" always betted with the house. This worked until angry miners burned the town down and murdered all the cheaters.
Life is full of woulda coulda shoulda. Get over it
Reverse the rearview mirror please RT
Rich getting richer. Stocks go up.
Poor getting poorer. Government being looted. Stocks go up so long as rich still getting richer.
Stock market is not a reflection of overall economic health and prospects of the economy. Stock market is a reflection of RICH PEOPLE'S and RICH CORPORATIONS overall economic health and prospects.
Um, no. You have to be savy like Robotfucker to make money in this market. Paulson, down 20%. Greenlight, down 5%. Buffet, senile and losing money. Insiders can't find their way out of a paper bag. The only ones making cash are prop desks, but they have so many losing assets (RE/MBS/CMO) that they too are getting whip sawed. Then you throw in dollar loss and even if you are returning 10% you are even with inflation. You are right to point to corporations as those treading water while everyone else drowns, but be reminded they couldn't have done it wothout ya. You bailed them out! Ahead of yourselves! Jesus died for your corporations....
Basically, the only people making money are those holding physical precious metal bullion. But, is anyone surprised? Not the Central Banks, the largest holders of PMs. And Bernanke "Has no idea why the price of gold is going up!" Sure, buds.
An implosion of the Euro makes the dollar strong? Have fun with your tulips, gang.
This Bull has months to run yet. Months. F*ck the fundamentals, they have little to do with the equity market moving.
Yes, I get nervous and jumpy, but I make money now. Twitchy is a better word. As soon as I get "a feeling" I will be out but I am riding little moves through early September. Bad crop potentials could be a trigger. In any case by September/October, I am out of equities and all cash until......
reality always wins. Stay tuned
Robot, you are the new Alan Abelson.
Another idiot trying to pick a top in the Dow. In the meantime, the Dow has rallied 100% since March, 2009. I'm 200% long the Dow and I'm lovin' it. Dow 15K here we come!
As long as those stop orders are tight and in place, you can't lose much.
Tight stops can't and won't get repeatedly blown out on garden variety plunges, and there will be plenty of fast take ups on asks during the inevitable crashes to come, as there were in crashes that preceded, in a super lubricious environment when benign market makers are doing their job, like in 1987, 2000 or 2008, or many meltdowns prior, when you couldn't catch a bid with Megan Fox's vagina, right?
In any case, ( x ² + y ²)² = a ²( x ² -- y ²)
Right?
You're all set.
/sarc/
Go, Icarus!
Who managed the coffers back then? The days before HFT...
Prior to the 2008 crash I was following some nut named John Lansing who is a elliot wave pro(supposedly).
He preached over and over that something 'huge' was going to happen in terms of positive for the market but he didn't know what it was. Everytime something came up he thought that might be it but it didn't have the desired effect. He also preached that there would be the mother of all rallies with virtually no volume. No one liked this idea and he continued to preach that 'the bus moves faster with no passengers' and his Nasdaq target was 3100 and when it reached that area he was going to short the piss out of the market as he said it was finished at that point.
Then came the crash, everyone thought he was nuts. Looks to me he just didn't see the crash coming and it was actually the catalyst for this 'huge' event he'd been looking for which came in the form of QE. So here we are a few years later---monster rally, no volume, and near his 3100 target.
Too much evidence that the guy actually knew this was coming, just didn't know when. Don't go and follow this guy though......he has a habit of telling you to follow a stock to zero and still insisting it's going to the moon and you'll be broke or shaken out before it happens.
I think a problem with any asset or investment class these days is the amount of debt and leverage involved in all markets. Even if you're not highly leveraged yourself, you can bet most of the other market participants will be, and that makes for an unstable investment (through no fault of your own) when the global economy has another dip and all asset classes get the jitters....... My biggest fear as an investor right now would be China. A drop in Chinese asset values would not only shake confidence in China's economic vitality, but it would also open debate about whether or not the global economy is over-leveraged and over-reliant on the success of China (it is). Excessive leverage is partly what made the property bubble aftermath so devastating for Japan, America and Ireland. There's a great discussion here (China Real Estate Bubble) about the Chinese economic bubble and it's potential impact on the global economy. Several months ago, so-called Chinese 'expert' Nick Lardy dismissed worries about what he called the "so-called property bubble" - this was during a conference held at Peterson Institute in DC. However, he now concedes that says a real estate downturn may cause a significant in China, and this is an opinion shared by many other mainstream economic analysts....... So what changed his opinion? I would suggest a dawning realisation that most of the massive Chinese stimulus, lending and spending during 2009/10 just ended up in property purchases, which drove real estate prices in an alarming and totally unsustainable manner. Also, a realisation that China's economic system frequently produces bubbles, and that's not very likely to change in the near future!! To understand why excessive debt and leverage is going to have a hugely negative impact on all asset classes going forward, read up on some of the work by Professor Steve Keen. He's the Australian guy who predicted the GFC, and he has also shown that unsustainable debt to GDP ratios in a country (which you definitely have in the USA, and we have in Australia too) will always result in deflation or depression....... Zoran Zlaveski Property Price Crash Forum