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Guest Post: Short Squeeze! Here Comes 50-dollar Silver
Smart Money Europe – http://www.smartmoney.eu
Short squeeze! Here comes 50-dollar-Silver
Silver is blasting through all barriers, topping $36.5 this morning! The white bullion market is tight, and the short squeeze in the futures market is exerting a constant upward pressure on the price. If current trends persist, the all-time high of $49.45/ounce will be reached in the near future.
Silver is performing exceptionally, outstripping a vast array of commodities and stocks. Even unrest in the Middle East has not stopped the price increasing, whereas during similar circumstances in the past, silver would have taken some serious blows.
As far as silver is concerned, we are living in exceptional times. Supply shortages have existed since the Fifties, but this deficit was traditionally eliminated with the (once strategic) reserves of central banks and other financial institutions, who wanted to get rid of their silver due to its lack of monetary use. Consequently, bank supplies have fallen rapidly. Today, the shortage on the silver market is mainly supplemented by recycling used silver, aka ‘scrap’.
Nick Laird of ShareLynx, who supplied the chart below, gave the following explanation in a recent MoneyWeek interview: “Since 1950, the demand for silver increased up to 925,000 tonnes, while the production only amounted to 570,000 tonnes. This equals a silver production deficit of 16 years!”
Continuous increases in demand for silver means producers can barely keep track with demand, particularly now from the investment community. Recently, Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management reported exceptional delays on deliveries of physical ingots, and national mints are pointing at shortages, in part owing to the gigantic increase in demand for coins. The US Mint recorded selling 4.6 million Silver Eagles in January 2011 – a one-month record – while the website King World News recently reported shortages at the Royal Canadian Mint, producers of the popular Maple Leaf.
Futures markets are becoming increasingly important in the commodity pricing and silver is no exception; indeed, trends in silver futures are largely responsible for the price rise over the past few months. This is due to the gigantic short positions retained by some major (American) banks. The four largest traders are short an impressive 104 days of global silver production on the COMEX. The eight largest traders are short for almost 140 days of silver production. Herewith, silver is the highest in advance sold metal within the entire commodities complex.
The largest short position is held by JP Morgan. JPM’s short position was vastly increased by its acquisition of the bankrupt Bear Stearns in 2008, which prior to bankruptcy held an impressive commodity-trading desk.
Because of the negative press surrounding several banks trading on their own accounts, JP Morgan decided to shut down its proprietary trading department at the end of August 2010. JPM’s “prop desk” was one of the largest active short players on the silver futures market. It is no accident that the price has risen dramatically since then.
In technical terms this is called a short squeeze, whereby the upward price spiral – caused by the settlement (or resale) of short contracts – ensures that more and more shorts have to cover: the snowball effect. Nobody can tell when a short squeeze will end. It is a phenomenon that usually originates from a small inducement and could end as suddenly as it began. They can last just a couple of days, or a couple of months or even years!
Given the still gigantic short positions on the silver futures market, this short squeeze could persist for some time. Increasing price volatility as the squeeze continues is likely. But the all-time high of just under $50 per ounce could, if the current pace of appreciation persists, be broken this year. Astute investors make sure they get some of this action!
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I know what you mean. My grocery bill is skyrocketing to.
And the more I look at it, the more it makes me sick.
My fuel bill for the car is about 700 euro a month.(980 dollar) so I can go to work.
Grocceries are about 1200 euro a month
Downpayment of my house 1740 euro a month
...
I can't imagine getting by on 1 salary. I have 2 kids but my wife needs to work to, to keep our luxery at level.
I feel your pain. We've squeezed about all we can squeeze. I was planning on getting a a second job and her working once the kids were older and didn't care if we were around anyway. I've got little ones right now, but I don't think we're going to be able to get by with this inflation much longer with out cutting more expenses or me getting a second job...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aquaponics
Might want to try and build yourself something sustainable before it really is too late. I can answer question's on this topic if need be.
Biff, I see you've been a member for quite a while. Purely out of curiosity, how did you happen onto ZH, especially so (relatively) long ago?
A post will accomplish nothing - you and everyone like you need to follow the examples set by Tunisa, Greece, Egypt, etc.....
Until then, NOTHING will change!
Biff Malibu,
Yes, we are the sheep who understand what Easter dinner means.
If we are content to be sheep.
If not, Max Keiser has some ideas of how to remind our 'pastors' that sheep, especially in numbers, can be quite dangerous.
http://maxkeiser.com/2011/03/07/save-lives-walk-away-from-mortgage/
BAAA! Blythe!
Biff - I wish you well. However, I think a lot of these bankers are soul-less creatures.
I hate to say this but your lifestyle is probably unsustainable - as you should be able to walk to the shop and/or grow your own food.
The time to invest in technology is now perhaps past given the epic personal consumption of the past few decades.
if you want to continue the above given the present technological constraints you or more likely your representatives will have to be prepared to kill on a mass scale.
Sorry about this chap , just saying.
double post , perhaps bad taste.
There is no god... never was.. never will be.. Just people fighting over faith and resources..
Talibans are expensive...
Be sure to vote to support your warlord.
Monkey or pig, place your bet.Duplicate (inflation hit?)
Let's go to the point :
Talibans sucked your blood, and your warlord is dangerous blood sucker. (The next one will be a pig, thank God).
Free will, my friend. If man "punishes" or destroys himself, so be it. It will be as a result of his own design; a supreme Diety will not have a whit to do with it.
Well Biff ... you could grow some food in your yard.
You can brew your own beer real cheap.
You could trade in your gas guzzlers for a small efficient car.
You could stop asking your government to kill brown people in far off places to support your hydrocarbon addiction. Then your taxes would be lower too.
In short, you could live like the rest of the world has for the past 30 years while we supported your indulgent and profligate lifestyle.
OR ... you could DEMAND your GOD GIVEN RIGHTS AS AN AMERICAN and DEMAND that your government DO SOMETHING while you go back to watching the superbowl.
Too much?
Bring on the silver bears!
500.000 oz of silver is held for investment purposes only now!
That doesn't leave any room for industrial demand!
Also demand for industrial use is rising in the 2 biggest fields:
Solar and water purification.
Now solar: Just look at oil and you'll get it.
Water purification: A basic.
Silver will go up way bigger then anytime before.
With the Hunt brothers, I was 2 guys and 1 Arab who bought up the stuff and caused a panic. It was a American thing.
NOW: IT'S A GLOBAL PHENOMENON!! EVERY COUNTRY IS RUNNING ON FIAT CURRENCY!!
Everybody is buying! AND SINCE THE 70's THERE IS ABOUT 20 TIMES AS MUCH MONEY IN CIRCULATION!!
In the 70's, buying silver wasn't that easy. NOW YOU TURN ON YOUR PC, TAKE YOU VISA AND YOU'VE GOT IT IN 2 MINUTES.
In the 70's, there where 2,5 billion people. If 1% bought silver then, and 1% buys silver now THAT IS ALMOST 3X AS MUCH!!
And silver above ground stocks where about 1,5 billion ounces in that time! Now it's only 500 to 700 MILLION ounces and applications in industrial uses are endless!
I expect a shortsqueeze that will rocket it ABOVE gold.
In the 50's, about 500 to 1000 ounces could buy you a median home. I expect this to return, BY FAR!
I had a friend who left the area ('79) to "go West, young man" in an old, clapped out car. He took his time, was paying attention to the Hunt Broz. Bought antique silver, medical photos, whatever, gunk-holin' the entire way across the country. Bought at like 15 VWAP, sold the week before the collapse. Set up for life.
Better to be lucky than it is to be good.
- Ned
A denarius started in Rome as a silver coin of 6.8 grams (1/48 roman pound). I was also the daily pay for a legionnaire. A US quarter is about the same weight of silver (6.25gr tw).
I suspect that when it's all over and fiat is dead that that pay rate will apply again.
Yes. perspective is everything. I have an agreement to buy gasolene for one quarter, (american silver), per gallon at my local market. The woman wants to keep the quarters for her childrens savings; a very reasonable plan. The amazing thing is that bags of US "junk" coins, (silver), are still available from dealers in the US. Everytime I verify this, I am amazed. These are the real deal; they're not going to become obsolete !
You're paying too much. You should get almost 2 gallons of gas for a silver quarter.
Methman will be crying with the Goldsteins
No, he won't, because he quite obviously doesn't follow his own "advice".
Nah SLV will save him, they hold allocated!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
Huge shorts moving in, so I wouldn't expect it to happen immediately.
I just checked Mocatta
Sold out of everything in bar silver!
https://www.scotiamocatta-estore.scotiabank.com/stores/scotiamocatta/cat...
I just looked over at Tulving. The last time I checked, he had over 500,000 oz. in inventory. Today? Over 300,000 oz., roughly 40% less.
He doesn't have any sealed monster boxes, and won't pay the current premium to get any 2011s. Otherwise, he's got lots of 10 and 100 oz bars.
Disclaimer, I do have sizeable holdings of PM's with silver being prominent (EU VAT permitting).
This is nonsense. Blythe has had ample time and warning put her house in order. The silver bulls have chiming on since before 2011. If JPM hadn't sterilized their portfolio, they would deserve to go down. Given their parameters though it's more likely than not that the last laugh will be Blythe's.
+1 - Too many around here are underestimating their enemy.
+1
Sell some into strength, buy some into weakness. Do what the bankers do. That is what you're up against.
You are on the side of Chinese; and Blythe has who for an ally? Your enemy has underestimated you and your allies.
What does Blythe's shoe-shine boy, Spalding have to say about all this?
Im amazed the paper mache cock-N-balls constructed by the paper wizards didn't blow its wad a long time ago. I'm continually amazed at the ability of the con artists to push back against a global phenomenon of head from ass removal. Don't underestimate yourselves either!
Will there be bumps? Hell yes you are correct. Will they ever be able to drive it down to 20? No fucking way.
On a serious note
be careful here, the pumpers sometimes can get the froth frothy.
BTFD people not the parabolics
Just saying - a dose of sanity helps in these times when you just want to mortgage the house, the kids, and your mother in law (not necessarily in that order).
there is a season, turn turn turn
Actually...
Almost every long is hoping that the price goes down A LOT to load up more.
I would be so happy if it would ever tough 25 again...
This money printing fiat thing will continue untill the metal strip in the paper is worth more then the money.
Inflation is getting worse and worse.
There's just no reason why this would be a bad investment long term.
For realsies.
If she drops to $25 i'll be all over that like a $3 whore on a crack-loaded meat pistol. Until then, I sit in the shadows...
Get to your local antique mall now and buy silver!
I have been predicting this since January 28th....
http://thehardrightedge.com/50-physical-silver-by-april-2011/
--
Easy to see...
100$+ silver by the end of the year... more like 140+ with upside potential staggering...
Well, no one knows. But it's neither impossible nor irrational as a prediction.
yes, but did you see it at silver$5.00, or even 10.00?
Lybian first lady has 20 tonns of gold:
http://www.newsmaxworld.com/global_talk/libyan_first_lady/2011/03/07/379...
Silver Long Johns are ON,
Got that right!
after market raid initiated on both metals...
20 cent of Silver down from 36.06 - 35.86
Gold 1433. down to 1431....same pattern, same time...
a little at a time to make it seem credible...it aint...
All these stupid raids are going to do is give silver buying opportunities to the asians at bargain rates.
Remember 2008 people, silver went from 21 bucks to 7 in 8 weeks or something. It can happen so keep your eyes open.
We have declared war on the Fed by holding Silver and Gold.
In essence you are an enemy of the Fed run state.
Not shitting ya.
Do I care? nope, the State is the problem.
By doing a Utah we too are saying fuck you. However, remember that this is the banksters' game not ours.
We are up against the animal farm and they own it. Yes some are more equal than others in this fine merry -go - round.
If they want to take you out - they will.
So never hold the precious on margin. They are waiting for you to do so.
peace brothers and sisters - the fun has begun.
Ted Butler's 25,000 short essay is a must read. I think Turd has it up on his site
I'll pull a Dennis Leary here right fucking now.
I'll bet my left nut that Silver will NEVER go below $20 ever again.
If I'm wrong MasterCard can have it (and 90% of fucking New England again)
It had a 20 year bear, 1980-2000, It will have a 20 year bull. So yes you have about 9 more years. Chit changes, that's the only constant I know.
Trhat was when a flight to safety was buying US Dollars. The flight to safety is now Gold and Silver.
"the fun has begun." yes. in any conflict, the victor takes best advantage of assymetrical conditions. bigger is not always better, yes? the same principles hold true in the present situation, the role of PSVL exemplifying how a simple weakness has been amplified by the very assymetry that characterizes the differences between the PM vigilantes and the banksters.
they got the guns, but we got the numbers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DfG1SNydnc
note the bull in the beginning ;)
Risk Assets probably topped out today.
Again? You say that ever friggin week. Time for a new schtick....
Robo brings luck when he junks silver.
He's like our local GS advisor :)
But he does post awsome chick pics :)
:)
yeah, robo - post the chick pics! We know what charts look like.
(my girlfriend gets the Garnet Hill catalog. Any chance you could post the chick who always makes slutty faces?)
The S&P 500 topped out around Feb. 20th.; and the shorts have all the profits. So now you know the answer to your question, "when will the market go down". A daily silver chart doesn't have any meaning in any question about a ten year bull market, "topping out"; you're very ignorant.
If he does it for the next 2 decades, chances are he'll be right one day.
sounds like Elliott Waves service!!!
I won't junk you Robot due to your exquisite breasts and come hither DSLs
Hey, Catfish mouth is FINALLY able to post a down day in a precious metal. How long has it been since you have been able to do that?
Go all in short, and gun for that 7th bankruptcy, dipshit.
Yo, RoboDodo, show mo' POMO momo!
Risk Assets probably topped out today.
Right, but wrong chart. You should have posted the DXY, not Silver.
Oh crap Robo, will you get me some Greece bonds ?
That's a nice beginning, but... we haven't fired the bullets for now, as it seems (still buying the dips?). Well, can it retrace back some dollars so I can add more?
The most wonderful death for JPM woul be, at the moment all shorts are burned and Blythe returns to oblivion, that there is no more silver sellers in the market. That would be a superb commercial signal <epic> failure.
Trader Dan's CSF:
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/what-is-commercial-signal-f...
y i p e e† maybe i won't have to kill myself after all
G O T c o i n?
What's the deal with HL (Hecla)? Getting crushed with silver going through the roof.......
There has never been any reason to buy a mining stock. If you wish to have Beta it is achieved by margin on the metal; not by speculating in the stock market.
iq 145
"Never" been a reason to buy a mining stock.
one such stock that one should never buy is GG.. at 5 now at fifty , dividends monthly, special dicidend a few years ago,, extra stock on GLG take over
and their are other mining stocks .
The lap top crazys have turned it to a nation of losing traders as 90 percent now lose .
and an industry made up of letter writers who can not make the same amount in the market as they can selling advice , right or wrong ,, the fees come in,
while the erstwhile new person wanting to make his fortune . makes the house the winner
excellent!
somehow, this applies:
http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/80767374/
The historical gold/silver ratio is 1:20.
Currently it's 1:40.
Way to go.
Btw, us Germans will help the Chinese to become world super power no. 1 by letting them steal our industrial secrets.
Why ?
Because we want a balance of power and a multipolar world.
It's not good if one superpower unfetteredly runs amok here.
Other than that, we've been screwed by the American Wallstreet mafia/Big oil/American steamrolling and grandstanding too often.
Can you Americans please stop driving these gaz guzzling SUVs and start driving cars with 50 mpgs ?!
Please, because the rest of the world has to live on 1 $ per day.
I don't care what brand, as long as it's sensible.
The profligate and squanderous "American way of life" is dead, in case you haven't noticed.
Get used to it.
What's wrong with this picture ?
5 % of world population consume 25 % of all oil ?
And no, there are no dead Jews in my police record.
I'm too young for that, just like 90 % of today's Germans.
Thanks for asking.
Btw. Who is Chaim Levine ?
A-hahahahaha !
you're not amusing, you're not informative, you have a wide ugly streak; how about giving us a break and typing notes somewhere else ? Thanks.
The information is in the article.
I'm not paid for being informative.
If I were, I'd be.
The tenor of these articles can be subsumed in 3 sentences.
1. We'll see a hyperinflationary scenario.
2. Buy long lasting food like noodles and canned beans (expiry date 2020).
3. Buy gold, silver, arable land and in the special case you're in the U.S. buy a semiautomatic rifle and 10000 rounds of ammo because the government is coming for you with FEMA, National Guard, private mercenaries like Xe and such.
That's all.
The Mexicans have an old saying: "plomo o plata". But in the southwestern US we prefer "plomo y plata".
If not for America, the few Germans remaining alive in Germany today would be speaking Russian. So remember to say thank you, boy.
Today's America is not 1940s,1950s or 1960s America.
This is a totally different generation.
Today's Americans are brainwashed couch potatoes, except the few informed like the people here on this blog, watching American Idol, rambing in a townhall riled up by Astroturf groups, listening to Eminem and likewise crap rappers.
The NFL series and NBA playoffs are more important than 100 fellow G.I.s dying in a far away country for the profits of Big Oil and Big Banking by a roadside bomb or an IED.
Who cares as long as Charlie Sheen is having another one of his hangovers.
And I speak Russian nonetheless, tovarish, since I grew up in East Germany, the DDR.
This is my hymn:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTV92wqYjfA
+ 1 million
and in case anyone comes back with that tired rejoinder that America is no longer what it was in the 1950's, American blood was just shed on German soil last week
we need to bill Europe, the middle east & Asia for decades of protection & stability bought with American blood & tax dollars
MathMan must have finally given up swimming upstream on AG for today. Too much bad juju for his delusional mind to take.
the Bernank's got Jamie Dimon's back and Geithner has got Bernank's back....and of course it's the UStaxpayer who is financing the whole shitty enterprise!
...and empty-suit Oduma is either sending young men and women into murderous wars or playing golf (60 days in 2 yrs) !!
So unless there's a Egypt or Lybia-style uprising, the game will not expire for a while yet.
Gold follows silver and oil follows gold...
Will one decouple from the other?
I just wanna be like the Mogambo Guru and get filthy rich without have to work hard :)
I have a feeling anti-American sentiment will only become more and more emboldened, but that's ok because I take joy in the thought of bitch-slapping some overly-groomed, thin-mustached, foriegn-born fuck face from his 50cc electric scooter in front of his fiances frequently, forcibly fucked face. USA USA USA!
???????????????
PS: Define "Anti-American".
Hopefully silver will reach the moon now :)
Here's where most Germans use to buy their gold & silver & platinum & palladium:
http://www.proaurum.de/
http://www.westgold.de/
http://www.geiger-edelmetalle.de/
Regards
Not as easy to make a few euros on silver with that VAT, eh?
Yep! Started giving the silver as presents 2 years ago. They turned up their noses.
The kids didn't though! The kids all said, "Wow!" This year? The parents all say "Wow!"
scarecrow professing his rant for a long time would scare the feathers off the family crows, now they just glide in land sit and sit, this crow rants don't scare much anymore and crow for more.
Made my monthly trip to my local bullion dealer (I walk in, pay cash, talk for a bit and head on my way) but Jason had something interesting to say today, more so than usual. I asked hows business buyers sellers what do you have more of? His response surprised a bit, "more sellers than buyers lately but my buyers are big money and my sellers are small change, same as it ever was" Same as it ever was? "yeah man, my sellers are just paying the bills with grandpas coin collection and my buyers only buy"
Same as it ever was
Is that Jason Hommel in CA?
How can one invest in Silver during the hours of 5 p.m. EST - 9 a.m. EST - and just only trade while Wall Street is sleeping?
The charts on this trade are off the hook but I do not know how to take advantage as I buy from Coin Shops.
some online dealers allow a buy trade 24/7 (apmex.com) if you register. you have to get the money within 5 days. Selling, you need to talk to a person during biz hours.
there are other companies that allow purchases late night too.
franken stein, great grand dad scarecrow didn't catch his sails all the ways across the north atlantic pond from Birgden so his great-grandson would have to drive a freaking spec on the highways and byways of an American republic. nothing runs like a 4x4 for getting round the county.
At $10 / gal. = 1.87 €/l you'll think twice about my advice.
Better to prepare for that scenario now, it might arrive sooner as many think.
The apocalypse has been displayed in numerous big screen movies.
Just think of "Mad Max" or "Stephen King: The stand".
I've watched them all.
Zero Hedge maybe deserves a name change as every Silver thread gets the same numbers as an Arab anti-Govt street protest .....are we into 6 figures yet on Silver thread posts?
...even Gold Bugs like me get their Gold threads trampled underfoot by uber-enthusiastic dare i say frothing at the lips Silver surfers within seconds of arrival....
...you can't fight this sort of populism, i give up, how about 'Silver Hedge' then?
JPM shot in the heart with a silver bullet... We can dream!
Silver and gold miners measure their cost of production by how much it costs to move the ore (ton-miles/gal diesel) and the cost of dynamite. Both diesel and dynamite are petro products. The PMs are not going to get any cheaper from increased production!
"US Mint recorded selling 4.6 million Silver Eagles in January 2011"
It was 6.4 million silver eagles in January. You are all dyslectic.
dyslectic.
hardehardeharharhar
The Fuck-Tards,cartel sure slammed the pm's back down the ladder all day today.
Charts look pretty fucked.
F
The Fuck-Tards,cartel sure slammed the pm's back down the ladder all day today.
Charts look pretty fucked.
F
The Fuck-Tards,cartel sure slammed the pm's back down the ladder all day today.
Charts look pretty fucked.
F
The Fuck-Tards,cartel sure slammed the pm's back down the ladder all day today.
Charts look pretty fucked.
F
"Save a cow,Eat a fat fucking Bankster"
Eggs"Benny" dick,for brerakfast.
Buying the dips Faithfully.
Banksters -in-my-feces.
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I'll take mermaid wedding dress spamming over MethMan and Williamthebastardizer any day!
Well, it's like with the train, when you see one leaving station, it's already too late and the smart ones are already on the other side :D
BTFD This IS the dip.
Hang on to your hats, gentlemen!
Great. But how do I smuggle my physical "positions" into Ecuador this Thursday?
well according to Ted Butler JP Morgan has massivley increased their shorts once again ( most likley at the request of the US government). This, of course would make no sense, and they will lose moeny doing it, but what the hell, they just put it all on the US taxpyer's bill
Often times, when silver gets correction, it is pretty violent.
we should be cautious
CPM's Jeff Christian tells me thru kitco interview very recently that now is not a good time to buy ,because in a few months it (silver) will be $20 an ounce.
What a fucking DULTZ...!
Now it's all about the heard behavior, when few people start to get out,,and,,,,
Gold/Silver weakness expected now that equity correction has commenced.
Gold chart at blog.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Its a bubble! Silver can neither gain nor lose value except as measured in fiat currency or barter value. Since there is no active silver barter economy, you lug nuts are just jerking yourselves off by bragging about how much your silver has risen in value. Do you rejoice when the cost of bread goes up because you have several loaves at home and now you have made money. Buy all the physical you can, but pray for continued low prices until it can not be acquired except through barter. This economy has taken one too many rotations around the bowl, and your thinking should be of sustainability and survival, not your fictitious wealth.
a loaf of good bread was $1.38 here last summer
and is still $1.38 today
meanwhile silver has gone from $18 to $36
Lots of discussion here about silver exploding and JPM's efforts at manipulation resulting in collapse and, ultimately, a govt bailout. Sure, JPM looks to be in bad shape with silver at nearly $36, and will look horrible if it goes any higher. But doesn't it make sense to consider, before buying any silver at $36, the possibility that JPM is right about, or at least will be effective in manipulating, silver's pullback? If you buy in at $36, and it pulls back to $22 within the next two months, you will end up selling in a panic. Then JPM and others pick it up at $22 and ride it to $50+. Silver is just so manipulated that it is difficult to know if Sprott and most ZHers are right about its inevitable and constant rise to $50+, or if JPM is calling it right, or manipulating it well, down to $22 or less.
No matter what, are SLV, AGQ, and other paper silver shares viable? AGQ is up, in a matter of weeks, from $120 to well over $200. Do you buy only physical metal at this point?