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Guest Post: Silver Is Getting Too Popular… Right?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Jeff Clark of Casey Research

Silver Is Getting Too Popular… Right?

It’s no secret that the silver market is red hot. As I write, silver American Eagles and Canadian Maple Leafs are sold out
at their respective mints. Buying in India has gone through the roof,
especially noteworthy among a people with a strong historical preference
for gold. Demand in China continues unabated. Silver stocks have
screamed upward.

So, as an investor looking to maximize my profit,
I have a natural question: is the silver trade getting too crowded,
meaning we’re near the top? Have the masses finally joined the party
such that we should consider exiting? After all, it’s not a profit until
you take it, and you definitely want to sell near the top.

There
are several ways to measure how crowded the silver market might be. I
prefer to look strictly at the big picture and not get caught up in the
weeds. This means I’m looking for signs of market exhaustion or the
masses rushing in. Nothing says “peak” more than an investment everyone
is buying.

So how crowded are silver investments right now? Let’s first look at the ETFs.

  

At
$35 silver, all exchange-traded funds backed by the metal amount to
$20.7 billion. You can see how this compares to some popular stocks. All
silver ETFs combined are less than a quarter of the market cap of
McDonald’s. They’re about 10% of GE, a company that still hasn’t
recovered from the ’08 meltdown. Exxon Mobil is more than 20 times
bigger. And this isn’t even apples-to-apples, as I’m comparing the
entire silver ETF market to a few individual stocks.

This is even
more interesting when you consider that it’s the ETFs where most of the
public – especially those that are new to the market – first invest in
silver. So while the metal has doubled in the past seven months, total
investment in the funds is still far beneath many popular blue-chip
stocks.

Okay, maybe all this money is instead going into silver
mining stocks. How does the market cap of the silver industry compare to
other industries?

  

While
you fetch your magnifying glass, I’ll tell you thatthe market cap of
the silver industry is $73.1 billion. It barely registers when compared
to a number of other industries I picked mostly at random. The dying
newspaper industry is over 26 times bigger. Drug manufacturers are 213
times larger. Heck, even the gold market is 19 times greater. And here’s
the fun one: the market cap of the entire silver market, with all its
record-setting prices and stock-screaming highs, represents just
one-third of one percent of the oil and gas industry.

To be fair,
there are a number of sectors that are smaller than silver. Radio
broadcasters ($43.2B), video stores ($10.9B), and sporting goods stores
($2.5B) have puny market caps, too. But then again, who's buying DVDs or
baseball mitts to protect their wealth from a coming inflation?

Silver hardly resembles the picture of an investment that is too crowded.

I’m not saying one should rush to buy silver right now. After all, it has
doubled in seven months. Unless this is the beginning of the mania,
prudence would certainly be called for at this juncture. The price will
always ebb and flow in a bull market, and an ebb is overdue. 

The
question, of course, is from what price level it occurs. What if a
correction doesn’t ensue until, say, a month from now, and the price
falls back to… where it is now? I remember some articles in January that
insisted silver would fall to as low as $22, and, well, they’re still
waiting and have in the meantime missed out on some huge gains. For
silver to fall back to $22 now would require a 40% drop; not impossible,
but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Fixating on market timing takes
your focus off the ultimate goal. In my opinion, instead of worrying
about what will happen next week or even next month, focus on how many
ounces you have, and then buy at regular intervals until you reach your
desired allocation. This has the added benefit of smoothing out your
cost basis. And don’t forget to buy more as your assets and income
increase.

This is a market where you'll want to be well ahead of
the pack. Someday in the not-too-distant future, average investors will
be tripping over themselves to join in. That will make the market caps
of our silver investments look more like some of the others in the
charts above. And that will do wonderful things to our portfolio.

 

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Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:26 | 1146766 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Personally, I don't know anybody who is buying silver.

Let's say, I know about 100 people in my inner circle.

And none of them knows anyobody who buys it but me.

That doesn't sound so crowed to me.

 

Silver might be called "hot" if 1 out of 10 people start to invest in silver.

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:26 | 1146772 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Buy more.  All these folks will work for you soon enough.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:46 | 1146804 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Sorry for the OT -

Gundersen says Areva document is out that says Fukushima is greatest disaster of modern times unfolding. Reports have been kept guarded; he has seen the report.

Exact Areva report quote: "We are witnessing greatest disaster of modern times."

Video link in blue with my summary of his presentation:

April 6th Video of Arnie Gundersen, of Fairewinds Energy.

Closing Ranks: The NRC, the Nuclear Industry, and TEPCO are Limiting the Flow of Information

Gundersen says No 1 and No 2 are in deep trouble, plutonium was ejected from fuel pool during explosions, and that heavy, radioactive mud are making remaining structures unstable. Says info has been witheld and documents exist proving it. Says Areva has filed reports that show nuclear fuel in all 3 reactors reached 5000 degrees, which is higher than melting point of stainless steel and Zircaloy. Also says that disintegration of core is obvious. Says unit 2 containment was breached ALONE by hydrogen explosion. Areva and NRC know this yet failed to disclose it. Areva report states all crops and dairy products within a minimum of 50 kilometers are totally contaminated. Says unit 4 fuel pool cracked due to earthquake, and now with no water, Zircaloy/Hydrogen reaction was inevitable. Water didn't boil out, but leaked out due to crack. Says largest release is coming from unit 4 and that all releases are being volatalized. Exact Areva report quote: "We are witnessing greatest disaster of modern times."

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:46 | 1146863 illyia
illyia's picture

Thanks for tragic report.

Truth hurts.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:53 | 1146881 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Need to see Areva doc; won't take his word for it.

Fuel pool crack was the biggest worry...a total coffin corner.

That said, UCB is showing markedly declining rad levels across the entire isotope spectrum.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:56 | 1146893 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I take his word for it. Did you watch the video?

Go to 06:46 of the video.

 

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:57 | 1146910 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

thanks for the link and your points.  I don't find much of it surprising to be honest, if everything was fine they'd have been open.  Thanks to Arnie too.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:16 | 1147262 Creed
Creed's picture

quit posting this shit in every thread

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:46 | 1147383 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Since the boiling (not melting) point of Fe is 3134 K (2861 °C)...5000 sounds absurdly high...Iron boils and vaporizes at 3,134....I would rather doubt that 5,000 degrees was reached....if it had been nothing would have contained it.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:54 | 1147416 anonnn
anonnn's picture

Careless author, you are. Those are NOT exact quotes, either from Gundersen or his sources.   

Goto Gundersen site and use your own eyes and ears:

http://www.fairewinds.com/

Another helpful source is ex-skf' website:http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/04/m71-or-74-aftershock-and-status-of-nu...

And another:   http://www.youtube.com/user/leakspinner

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 22:39 | 1148128 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

From New York Times tonight:

Powerful Aftershock Complicates Japan's Nuclear Efforts

While a spokeswoman for Tokyo Electric dismissed the analysis, a spokesman for the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency of Japan agreed that it was possible that the core had leaked into the larger containment vessel.

The possibility raised new questions. The Nuclear Regulator Commission said that its speculation about the flow of core material out of the reactor vessel would explain high radiation readings in an area underneath, called the drywell.

But some of the radiation readings taken at Reactors Nos. 1 and 3 over the last week were nearly as high as or higher than the 3,300 rems per hour that the commission said it was trying to explain, so it would appear that the speculation would apply to them as well. At No. 2, extremely radioactive material continues to ooze out of the reactor pressure vessel, and the leak is likely to widen with time, a senior nuclear executive said.

“It’s a little like pulling a thread out of your tie,” said the executive, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to protect business connections in Japan. “Any breach gets bigger.”

Flashes of extremely intense radioactivity have become a serious problem, he said. Tokyo Electric’s difficulties in providing accurate information on radiation are not a result of software problems, as some Japanese officials have suggested, but stem from damage to measurement instruments caused by radiation because it exceeds the maximum dose that they are designed to measure, the executive said.

“It’s killing the measuring equipment,” he said. “They’re blaming it on software — it’s their meters getting cooked.”

Broken pieces of fuel rods have been found outside of Reactor No. 2, and are now being covered with bulldozers, he said. The broken pieces may be from rods in the spent-fuel pools that were flung out by hydrogen explosions.

Keith Bradsher contributed reporting from Hong Kong, and Matthew L. Wald from Washington.

 

This had been in the original article (I can prove it), but has since been removed by the New York Times:

 

"They're running bulldozers around to bury the stuff so it doesn't cook people going by," he said.

 

It was the last sentence of the article as of 7:40 pm on April 8th and has been since removed.

Here is a link with the last sentence NOT since redacted:     

 

http://2012indyinfo.wordpress.com/2011/04/07/powerful-aftershock-complic...

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 02:46 | 1148921 i-dog
i-dog's picture

I was also amused last night (Japan time) by a TEPCO spokesman on NHK saying "There is no damage at all at the plant. The workers will go outside to investigate [if there is any damage] after the Tsunami warning has been removed."

WTF?!

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 21:00 | 1147835 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

And what exactly does this have to do with silver?

Wait to post it in the next ZH thread about the plant... there's only 3 or 4 per day. All of which predict that the entire world is utterly fucked.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 21:02 | 1147854 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Only Daiichi-3 had MOX fuel in the core--no MOX in the pools nor in other cores.

u b rather breathless here, take a knee.

Steam-Zirc reaction at 2,300 DegF is exothermic, so would reach 5,000 DegF and prob is the "burning" phenom we've been discussing for > 10 days.  We've seen secondary containment buildings blow-out panels doing their blow-out thing.

NRC may "know" stuff, but do not KNOW stuff, in sufficient KNOW to make definitive statements.

Highly likely that SFP and RWST and other safety related vessels cracked and leaked--in the timelines discussed here there were sequential reports of each unit running out of cooling water (I guess RCIC turbine pump suction went dry due to cracked feed pool--just a guess).  And perhaps wetwell crack/imbalance in forces from RCS fracture?

What else did Madame Non say?

- Ned

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:32 | 1147107 SparkyvonBellagio
SparkyvonBellagio's picture

To the moooooooooooon and beyond. What a gift horse rocket.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:49 | 1147166 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

sell your silver stocks if you wish....my coins are insurance and for the kids

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:29 | 1146785 augie
augie's picture

same boat. I dont know anyone who has physical silver. Then again the 25-30 age group isn't particularly savy when it comes to planning ahead. Perhaps i'm not a good example.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:34 | 1146814 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I'm 34 so the group I know is between 30 and 40 and they aren't so good in planning ahead either :)

I'm like to only one who got his pension in order already and downpaid most of my debt.

 

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:41 | 1146846 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

SD: You're hanging out with the wrong crowd. In Turd's World, almost everyone owns some physical silver.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:58 | 1146909 magis00
magis00's picture

TUUURRD!!  YOU THA MANNN!!!! 

 

 

(warming up for some Masters watching ... from the couch.  Don't own that much physical)

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:23 | 1147073 Chicken_Little
Chicken_Little's picture

I'm part of the Turd Herd and have lots of physical, but I can't find one of those hats anywhere...

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:13 | 1147009 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

how big is your world?  i don't know anyone except myself who fools with physical metals........nobody.......i bet in this town the number might be less than 20 for town of 60,000.

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:18 | 1147271 DosZap
DosZap's picture

All of my friends I have given heads up, have either said, I do not have the capiltal (could buy and sell me 10x's).

And are investing in equities like maniacs.But has no capital.

Others, "I do not believe in investing in Commodities".

Not once, has ONE come back to me and said "Darn, I wish I had listened to you earlier".

These are business owners, and well off professionals...they act like things will be as usual, like they have for the past in their lives.

So, I do not push metals on anyone.When the ball drops, can't say I did not warn you.

I didn't take you to raise...........

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 20:32 | 1147746 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

yeh they think that things will just keep on going like they always have during their lives. they cannot believe that this is the end of the line. they figure, that the government will fix it as they have many times before and anyone who goes around making warnings is paranoid idiot........

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:52 | 1147170 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i widow's house i have been completly remodeling...has given me authority to purchase 150,000.00 in silver in gold......she is the lower middle class, that husband invested and received the asbestos settlement...i told her she should have at least 15 20 % in metals.......we are half way thru the processess

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:31 | 1147313 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Well, I'm old. Some might say crusty? But I hang out with many females in their 20's. They prefer paper because it folds and is carried more easily when wearing beach attire. So I oblige.

Stay thirsty my friends.

signed,

The most interesting man in the world.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:48 | 1146862 augie
augie's picture

I blame the parents.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:20 | 1147046 Dr_Dazed
Dr_Dazed's picture

Why not the Grandpartent?  And while we're at it, if the general consensus is that the USD is toast, why aren't we all borrowing to the hilt when we expect to be able to pay back later with play money?

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:22 | 1147061 augie
augie's picture

I'm 25 sir, I haven't progressed through that stage of therapy yet. I"M THE VICTIM HERE! ME! ME! ME!

see i'm working it through, give me time.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:13 | 1146995 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

People talking about silver/gold isn't a good barometer. Gold & silver are still largely considered relics of bygone times, and a sign of being a bug, or nut. Plus, if you hold physical, it's best to keep quiet so you don't end up being the target of thieves. I would never discuss gold/silver in a crowded conference room at the office.

While still a small fraction of the populace, I guarantee that a lot more people hold precious metals than one would think.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:21 | 1147528 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

I agree.  Who's stupid enough to go around talking about the 5,000 oz's they have in their basement?

I'm sure some are, but many are simply quiet.

I went to the dentist about 4 months ago and the lady cleaning my teeth was telling me that her and her husband invested in PSLV because they think silver is going through the roof.

Another instance, a few weeks later, literally freaked me out.  Was getting a haircut from a lady that mentioned she is planning on holding onto her grandparents sterling silver collection because her financial advisor told her silver is headed straight up.

Is it crowded?  Probably not.  But word is out.  So, I see where the trade could be lower in nominal terms, but the fact remains the mints are sold out, and I highly doubt Blythe and the Morgue are buying from the mints.

More people hold a few oz's than you think.  They're just hush hush.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:17 | 1147035 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

I started buying silver back in 2004 ...and even though the price is about 9 times higher now...the amount of people I know that are holding physical metal is about the same.

Until the mainstream media gets ahold of this story...and we really start to see mania buying....I will not be too concerned.

All you have to ask youeself is this: 

Are the issues that are creating inflation and financial uncertainty out there going to be solved or go away anytime soon?  If  you honestly think that our nation will find a way out of the debt trap we are in...and you think that the U.S. Dollar will be worth more and more over the next couple years...then what the hell are you buying silver for anyway? 

 

Seriously....when I start to think that silver might be overvalued...all I have to do is put it into perspective and compare it to other things....is silver any more overvalued at $40.00 an ounce than an Ipad 2 is at $600.00?  Is it any more overvalued than Facebook is...at $50,000,000,000  Or is it more overvalued than our paper currency...which is worth less and less all the time.   The price increase of silver is based MOSTLY on the weakness of the dollar.  When we start to see the average retail investor start to buy silver...you will know...because we could see prices go up by $5.00 a week...$10.00 a week....I personally think we are still in the early stages of a run  - there will be corrections along the way - which usually just shake out those who do not truly believe in the fundamentals of sound and honest money...

 

LET IT RIP!!!!

 

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:41 | 1147357 DosZap
DosZap's picture

...and you think that the U.S. Dollar will be worth more and more over the next couple years

Yes I do, they are not going to do QE 3.(if so, it will be because things have gotten even worse, and the sheeple will demand something be done).

QE 2 ends, and the mkts will plunge(maybe not right away), but the dollar will get stronger, and I look for the sheep to pile back into Treasuries.

And PM's are going to take a big hit, if the dollar kicks but(but only for a short period).

The fundies are the same, and are not going to change.

Only way is if the GOP gets the POTUS seat, and gets radical on the debt(Paul Ryan style).

This scenario would cause the sheeple to think "Things" are going to get back to normal.

I, for one ,even in this FAR out scenario do not believe the American Sheeple will go with the Austerity measures he has put forth.This will cause Owbamba to get re-elected.

This election, he does not need that 38% cracker vote to get in.

Plus planning on spending up to ONE Billion dollars on the campaign, with really no competition will (IMHO) stop all hopes keeping him out.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 20:33 | 1147750 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

The fact that QE2 brought on the beginning stages of global revolt suggests the Bernank laid awake many 'o night knashing his teeth, thinking looong and hard about QE3 and the problems it will bring.  Very possibly you are right, a surprise no-QE3 is coming along to make food affordable, for a while anyway, in the frontier markets.  A good, old-fashioned market scare will help the coward Statists give QE3 the nod.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:53 | 1147407 JNM
JNM's picture

$65B USD now for Fb.

So, that's $52 for Ag.

Sure.  Why not.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:17 | 1147039 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

I started buying silver back in 2004 ...and even though the price is about 9 times higher now...the amount of people I know that are holding physical metal is about the same.

Until the mainstream media gets ahold of this story...and we really start to see mania buying....I will not be too concerned.

All you have to ask youeself is this: 

Are the issues that are creating inflation and financial uncertainty out there going to be solved or go away anytime soon?  If  you honestly think that our nation will find a way out of the debt trap we are in...and you think that the U.S. Dollar will be worth more and more over the next couple years...then what the hell are you buying silver for anyway? 

 

Seriously....when I start to think that silver might be overvalued...all I have to do is put it into perspective and compare it to other things....is silver any more overvalued at $40.00 an ounce than an Ipad 2 is at $600.00?  Is it any more overvalued than Facebook is...at $50,000,000,000  Or is it more overvalued than our paper currency...which is worth less and less all the time.   The price increase of silver is based MOSTLY on the weakness of the dollar.  When we start to see the average retail investor start to buy silver...you will know...because we could see prices go up by $5.00 a week...$10.00 a week....I personally think we are still in the early stages of a run  - there will be corrections along the way - which usually just shake out those who do not truly believe in the fundamentals of sound and honest money...

 

LET IT RIP!!!!

 

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:43 | 1147142 JNM
JNM's picture

I'm 26. I own 32.6 oz of physical gold and silver combined.  I'm trying (waiting for dips) to accumulate about 300 oz. of physical.  I *will* buy this much within the next year or two, and I will never exchange it for fiat.

To me, it's not an investment, it's a call-option on SHTF.

Maybe that's a better question, for the ZH community, rather than - "do you know anybody else".  How about "How much do you have? How much do you think you'll likely buy in the future?"  People could answer, as a fraction, if that makes people more comfortable.

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:00 | 1147201 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Trade the gold for more silver.   Check this link for evidence of why this is probably a GOOD idea.   GSR = Gold:Silver ratio

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$SILVER&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51721759934 

June2010: GSR ~70

Today:  GSR 36.82

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:45 | 1147377 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Could be a smart move.

But, there is a reason people have shied away from Slvr, it's not called the Devils Metal for no reason.

Gold goes up the stairs and down the escalator.

Slvr goes up the escalator, and off the side of the building.

More than a few have been murdered by over investing in the Devils Metal.

60/40....................

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:55 | 1147427 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Normally you would be right Dos but the evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of silver returning to at least a 20:1 ratio with gold. Some think it is going to trade on par for a short period, I would start trading it in for gold at 10:1 on down but silver really should be between 12:1 and 20:1. 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:18 | 1147512 Hacked Economy
Hacked Economy's picture

I agree.  If it approaches the classic 15:1, then I'll consider trading some silver for gold, but until then I'll keep acquiring the white stuff.  Gold is more stable, and silver is more volatile, but if you have a level head on your shoulders you can do fine with mostly silver.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 07:01 | 1149134 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

I agree, I started out at 60/40 and still about the same ratio in usd terms.

Silver is still climbing but gold is gold, and always will be.

I look at it this way, If I bought silver @ say 17., sold it @ 40 and then bought gold @1470, My actual per ounce original investment frn price is around $700 an ounce for gold. Still a pm, just trading apples for oranges a little at a time.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:37 | 1147579 doggings
doggings's picture

timely piece on the gold : silver ratio

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:53 | 1147410 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

 

I am 28. My approach to buying PM's was always toward purchasing something else. It isn't that I have a number I would be willing to sell my silver or gold for it is what I want to trade it in for, and that is a house. So far doing pretty good, I have 600 ounces of silver and 3 ounces of gold. When the time comes I believe that it will be more than enough to buy me a house, it already is a very substantial down payment on one if I wanted but even by the end of this year I don't see housing prices rising and silver should pass $50 dollars by this summer. I wouldn't be surprised if silver was in the $70-$80 range by the end of the year and housing prices droped another 10%. I think whithin the next three years I should be able to buy a house with what I am holding right now, I think within the next 5 years I will be able to buy a house with a fraction of what I am holding now.

The only thing I am trying to buy up before things get worse is ammo reloading supplies like lead, tin, powder, primers, and some metal working equipment so I can do metal fabrication. 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:16 | 1147506 augie
augie's picture

I want 24" solid silver rims for my prius, however much silver that takes.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:44 | 1147607 SonnySkyy
SonnySkyy's picture

I started buying in January 2009, I'm up to about 250oz.  I don't really have a goal or a set amount I'm looking to hold.  I do a budget every two weeks, pay the bills, buy (and store) food, put some cash aside for beer and walking around money and the rest goes to Ag.  Like you said it's either a hedge against SHTF, part of a retirement savings plan or inheritance for my kids.  Whatever, it's a fun way to save.  Beats filling the safe with fiat all to hell.

As to the conversation, I'm 40 with large group of family, friends and co-workers.  Only my biker FIL owns gold and some silver proofs.  No one else messes with metals at all.  My investor brother thinks I'm nuts.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 21:26 | 1147703 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

I'm 50+% silver, ~20% gold, ~20% equity in a good rental house in Auckland, and a few % silver miners, palladium, armageddon puts, and cash.  Only got into silver after discovering ZH in late '09.  For an anti-government paranoid who reads way too many conspiracy theories, this is inexcusably late.

Last year I turned three or maybe four people into silver bugs, and these have turned at least three more people into silver bugs.  It was pretty quiet at first; only after the big runup did people truly appreciate the subtle joys of buggery and start spreading my disease.  I'm an exhibitionist and thus far I have only met one silver miner bug, three gold bugs and one platinum bug. 

What's more interesting is who is not a silver bug:  Physicists.  I know quite a few, and there is only one bug in the group, and he is a gold bug.  You would think these guys would know that when you ignore objective reality, it will sneak up and bite you in the ass- but most of them just blow off the facts because they come from a certified loon. 

Among the physics crowd, there is my dad who sold an old wedding ring last year to prepay his 4.5% fixed rate mortgage.  He's a reliable sheep who even supported the bailouts.  There are two Obama worshippers who think the government and the Fed are doing a good job and everything will work out because there are so many good Democrats with Ph.D.s working on the problem.  There is the guy who kept everything in cash for a decade trying to save up for a 50% down payment on a house, but now he is dithering because prices are falling and rates are rising.  There are guys who are heavily into bonds because their investment advisors said that's the way to go for old people.  There are a people who think the crash of '08 was a natural hiccup of a complex system, there is no vast conspiracy of evil puppetmasters, and things are returning to equilibrium.

Congratulations, guys.  You are all smarter than the smartest idiots in the room.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:04 | 1147216 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

I know a few that have silver but I had to push each one to do it.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:36 | 1146824 clymer
clymer's picture

ditto - one of my co-workers is in on it, and I turned him on to it. other than that - no one (and I have been pushing it since 07)

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:00 | 1146918 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Same here, my crowd think I'm an amusing eccentric curiosity. 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:07 | 1146957 augie
augie's picture

Fuck it, i wear my tinfoil hat with pride, and then cry myself to sleep on my bed of PM's like screwge McDuck.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:10 | 1146997 MaxVernon
MaxVernon's picture

Fucking priceless!

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:16 | 1147023 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

every morning i take out a bag of silver halves and run my hands through the coins and they turn black. i love the smell of junk silver too. it smells and feels and looks like real money because it is, i love the smell of junk silver in the morning.........

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:06 | 1147225 Hacked Economy
Hacked Economy's picture

Much of my silver is left untouched (as we all are classicly told to do), such as proofs and BU.  But some of the worn circulated "junks" I chose to clean (gasp!) to bring out the luster.  After all, if it's only the silver value and there's no numismatic involved, then why not?  Holding a few bright, revived 90% quarters (and listening to them give that special *clink*) is the stuff needed to lift my spirits.

That said, I hang with the 30s-60s crowd, and believe it or not, a few of my friends own physical.  One even invested in a full $1000 face bag.  My father began with gold and silver rounds about twenty years ago and showed me the value of holding physical, even though I didn't start myself until much later.

I agree with some of the posts here that we'll probably see a pullback/ebb/correction, perhaps even a deep one, but it will be only temporary, and the BTD action (of which I'll be a part) will serve to slingshot the price back in the upward direction.  At some point, as the MSM begins to shine the spotlight on PM, the bandwagon effect of the masses will ensue.

Is $40 silver overvalued?  Yes, if it will drop back down to $20 and stay there for a few years.  But since that doesn't seem likely...

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:02 | 1147458 Hearst
Hearst's picture

How are you cleaning your junk? I've tried the boiling water / baking soda / tin foil route which works great for my sterling.  But with junk Silver it doesnt seem to help much.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:34 | 1147543 Hacked Economy
Hacked Economy's picture

Let the coin(s) sit for at least 24 hours in some fresh squeezed lemon juice (that you squeeze yourself from a real lemon, not bottled juice), then clean with a soft-bristled toothbrush and tooth gel (or paste, but gel is easier on the silver's surface).  The lemon helps to break down the surface dirt/gunk, and the tooth gel acts as a gentle cleanser.  Then rinse under hot water, and Presto! you have a resurrected 90% coin.  No harsh chemicals needed.

Brush lightly, but consistently, and you'll like the results.  I only recommend this for circulated coins that are held only for their silver value...'cuz if you ever really need to use them in a barter environment, will anyone really look at your clean, shiny 90% silver coin and say "Hey!  You cleaned that sucker!  I'm not going to accept it for this loaf of bread.  Give me a dirty one instead!"  Nope.

But leave your proofs, BUs, and MS-rated coins as-is with no cleaning.  IMHO.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:55 | 1147642 Hearst
Hearst's picture

Thanks a lot.  Sounds like I am going to need a lot of lemons!  I agree with what you say about bartering.  While I am sure there will always be a place for numismatic coins, I view that market as secondary and for hobbyists.   The vast majority of 90% Silver will be traded for what it is.  

 

Strange that is has been called junk.  And amazing how again the lowly and humble things of this world become exalted when the evil deeds of the proud are laid bare in the light of truth.  And besides I would rather trade with nice shiny coins!

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 20:30 | 1147743 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

There is this sauce in England it is called "HP Sauce" and it cleans silver, platinum , diamonds so will it is not true.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 22:46 | 1148144 ShouldveLeftHer
ShouldveLeftHer's picture

For any silver, the best bet is a toothbrush and some baking soda mixed with water into a paste, then rinsed with water. IMHO lemon juice is highly acidic, where baking soda is slightly base, which is gentler on metals.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 22:18 | 1148081 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

I used water and vinegar that was warmed on the stove. You get a good shine from it and it breaks up a lot of the dirt. I think its something 5% vinegar to water. 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 22:48 | 1148137 Boston
Boston's picture

I've discovered a "secret" formula: Crest toothpaste, with a SOFT bristle toothbrush and warm water.  But I follow several steps:

1. Soak the coins in olive oil for at least 2 days, to loosen the dirt, etc.

2. After 2 days, scrub (gently) the oiled coins with a SOFT toothbrush. 

3. Remove oil from coins by scrubbing the coins with a second SOFT toothbrush using MILD dish liquid (I use Dawn foam) and warm water.

4. With coins rinsed (to remove soap) but still wet, scrub coins with a third SOFT toothbrush using Crest.

5. Rinse off toothpaste using warm water and dry using soft towel.

 

Be sure to scrub coins while they lie on a firm, but not abrasive, surface.  They coins will come out looking great--but without that horrible chemically cleaned look.

 

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 23:14 | 1148261 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

you guys are sick.  its money, its supposed to be dirty. 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 03:42 | 1148980 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

WTF?PM masterbation?

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:55 | 1147187 pirea
pirea's picture

I was pushing on PM since 2004, and everybody thought I am nuts. Starting 2008 I became silent on this subject, and now they come and say "You were a smart guy, but now is too late to buy". Final result: nobody I know bought some.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:51 | 1147396 DosZap
DosZap's picture

TOO LATE

Never too late, unless you get caught without any.

Refresh their memory.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 20:03 | 1147670 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

I finally got a coworker to start buying. I'd warned several people what was happening for the past couple of years. As an academic, I'm already seen as eccentric. Others thought I needed the foil hat, too. I just like silver foil and gold foil...for the coworker, I had to sell him my silver Roosevelt dimes. I've always had a grudge against FDR, because he is in the same list as Stalin, Hitler, and Mao- gold confiscators. Anyway, I gave him a small discount on $160 face of dimes. His wife thought he was uts, but it got him hooked as the 25x face I sold to him for went to over 28x face. He's been buying for the past couple of weeks and has only doubled to about $300 face in silver. But he has started.

The others- one was saving to have a down payment on a house so wouldn't buy silver, even when I told him he'd have more of a down payment if it was gold or silver. A second jumped out of the market and has remained in cash. I recommended the CAD, NOK, CHF, and AUS if he didn't want PMs. He chose the USD. We just don't talk about it any more. Only my one fellow foil hat wearer and me...

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:59 | 1146928 Triggernometry
Triggernometry's picture

I turn 30 on tuesday, and have been stacking silver since november; but you are correct that people my age haven't a clue. Only one of my friends has started stacking, and being almost done with a PhD in electrical engineering out of Stanford, he's among the brightest of our krew.

My only regret is not having started stacking back when I first read ZH in late '09; alas, woe is me. This site is the shit(minus the shills and trolls); keep up the awesomeness, and thanks in advance for the birfday wishes.

Boom-Brrap!

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:17 | 1147024 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

better late than never.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:04 | 1146946 watchingdogma
watchingdogma's picture

I'm 47 - first physical silver purchased in 2003.  I've been talking it up to family,friends and co-workers for the past 8 years.  My mom bought $3 face 90% silver last month.  That was her first.  I have one friend that has joined me just this past 30 days - he has no physical, but we're playing it up in the SLV options pits...

No one else I know (other than online) has any silver.

The only big change I've noticed is that they all stopped making fun of me for buying silver in the past year.  Now they just tell me to be careful.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:18 | 1147045 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

yeh they all look at you like you are crazy when you talk about bags of 90 percent silver coins........they don't want it and they don't like it and that is just the way it is. they don't think it is a sexy investment. well we shall see about that one won't we?  ha ha ha 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:13 | 1147017 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

I'm in the over 60 crowd and I've got some and I'm getting more. I talk to people from  30-80 years old and only one of them have silver or gold. Six months ago I told several upper middle class people that the US was bankrupt. They didn't believe me. I told several of these folks to start buying a little at a time. The reaction was "are you kidding? Gold and silver are in a bubble. I'm not buying any at these prices."

There is a wonderful restaurant near me that I eat at a couple of times a month. I have been telling the owners who have most of their savings in the market that the market is more dangerous than ever. They own C and they followed it all the way down to what, $1.00 or so. I told them that C and several other big banks may actually be bankrupt. The wife was that of some worry. The husband said, " Well, we'll see what happens". I gave them several reports and a couple of ZH articles. Well, they are still waiting to see what happens.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:28 | 1147094 augie
augie's picture

Jesus, so much for hoping that with age comes wisdom. Aparently from this sweeping account from every age group, you're either a moron, a nut, or a lawyer. I think i would still rather be a moron or a nut.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:10 | 1147235 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

So many people I tell just don't want to believe it's possible. I'm in Canada so it's worse since things are still strong up here.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:17 | 1147266 augie
augie's picture

I'd be buying guns not PM's if i was in canada. Shifty Amerikanski's gonna flee north to avoid the plauges brought up from mexico.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/07/uk-bacteria-superbugs-india-id...

 

the end is neigh!!! *gasp*

I love indian food too :(

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 21:01 | 1147845 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Thanks for the link, I follow anything related to or that might lead to a pandemic which we are way overdue for.

I wrote some thought on this situation earlier today based on another article out of Australia.

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=512

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 21:34 | 1147969 augie
augie's picture

Right back at ya. Fwd'd your work to one of my friends who loves pharma trades. I love Zerohedge, such a great resource.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:09 | 1147491 Hearst
Hearst's picture

I talked my 93 year old grandfather and WW2 vet into diversfying into Silver.  He sold some of his Pimco stock and I bought him $60K in Eagles back in Janurary.  I don't know how that compres with how Pimco has done since Jan, but so far so good.  I love the old guy.  Always has a great story to tell.  Like the time he was thrown off the back of a jeep and smashed General Patton to the ground!  

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 22:35 | 1148117 ShouldveLeftHer
ShouldveLeftHer's picture

26 yo here boss, I know four guys buying PHYSICAL only, but only a few that I decided to show the light too, and were all under 30. Dont doubt the youth, we troll the internet and have probably had more exposure to the "Silver Movement" than you might believe. Especially those who started asking Google "Who is Ron Paul?" which led to films about the Fed, which led to all the obscure silver junkies making a video a day tracking the fundamentals and statistics, which led to Mike Maloneys and Robert Kiyosakis books and writings and videos, which led them to think on thier own and realize its a no fucking brainer to have REAL money in your posession. I forgot to mention, a lot of us come across Alex Jones, and some never get out of the fear mongering stage he perpetuates on his followers. Even fewer of us put down the gas mask and dont pay for his free movies, instead just saying fuck it and "Im all in" at the local coin shop or most reliable bullion dealers. Most of us turn to Constitutional Republicans, self reliance, sound investing, and reasonable preperation for ALL situations. Funny, if it wasnt for Ron Pauls passion for the Constitution, a lot of us under 30s would still be completely blind and feeding into the welfare state and expecting everything to be handed to us because were "Americans"

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:33 | 1146799 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I have convinced a number of people to buy silver.  I have only ever met ONE family that had silver before talking to me, and they are survivalists (I am glad to have them as neighbors).

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:43 | 1146847 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

...and they are survivalists (I am glad to have them as neighbors).

That is until the SHTF and they raid your compound at gunpoint and strip you of all your survival material and PM wealth. Better sign a mutual assistance treaty with them while you can, then swear a blood oath to the local power broker. Or be ready to go it alone a la Mad Max. :>)

<humor>

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:57 | 1146903 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Snark aside, I don't know why you would think they need anything from me.  They are survivalists, meaning they have food, water, and silver ALREADY.  They don't need anything from me, except maybe my expertise in certain areas (like how to use a hydraulic windmill to cool your home, and other useful tidbits).  They have enough that they plan to provide for much of the neighborhood, especially the elderly who can't fend for themselves any more.  I have enough for my family and more, but nothing near their level of prep.  The only thing I have that they don't is solar power, which I am perfectly willing to share.

We are all armed, and we all know that we are all armed.  Things work out better that way in most any situation.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:06 | 1146963 Triggernometry
Triggernometry's picture

+Solar Power, its FREE

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:07 | 1147481 manipulate this
manipulate this's picture

Any prep recommendations you can make? Books, websites, etc.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 21:04 | 1147851 Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

survivalblog.com

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 21:10 | 1147884 tmosley
tmosley's picture

sunelec.com for solar panels, frugalsquirrels.com for handy tips on prepping, and maybe Ronpaulforums.com's "freedom living" forum for general interest material.

If I were starting to prep right now, I would put together enough food and water to last for a month, then buy at least 1-2 oz of gold for each member of my family (in small denominations, like 1/10th of an ounce) and a gun safe to put it in.  If there is a sudden major problem, a la Fukushima, grab your gold and run.  Next I would purchase a good handgun, either a 9mm or a .22, and some ammo (spend time learning how to use it, and how to clean it).  After that, I would start accumulating silver, while interspersing with bulk purchases of dry goods like rice, beans, cooking oil, as well as canned meat, fruits, and vegetables, etc--preferably enough to feed your family for a year, and gardening materials.  A victory garden never hurt ANYONE.  After you have that, I would invest in a small solar charger and a battery, so that you can charge up small electronics, or run a laptop, even in a "worst case" scenario.  After that (while still continuing to buy silver), get a shotgun and a .22 rifle.  I would suggest you purchase your firearms with cash at gun shows, rather than getting yourself on some list, FYI.  Similarly, buy the gold and silver with cash at a dealer.  I made the mistake of buying online to start with, so my name is probably in a bunch of databases.  Not sure that really matters.  But who knows?  The crazies think there is something to fear, so maybe there is.

With that, you should be fairly well off.  The next thing to consider is bail out property and/or solar panels, or going for the full self reliance package.  That's up to you and your situation.  

As for me, I have a nice fairly rural spread here, along with the option of bailing out to some family land where I already have a small residence set up.  If I were to bail out, depending on the situation, I would take both of my vehicles, load up the solar panels in the truck, and put the safe in the car, along with any food/water supplies I could fit, along with luggage.  More than likely, more time would be available, so I could make more than one trip, or rent/buy a trailer.  Depends though.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 23:39 | 1148403 manipulate this
manipulate this's picture

Much appreciated.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:08 | 1147226 Mr Anderson
Mr Anderson's picture

Cog & Mos,

In the past week, I've met with two community councils, The local mayor, his Police Chief, and the County Sheriff, and local fire chiefs.

We as a group are creating Local Disaster Management Plans for each community(which currently do not exist).

These are operational plans for the communities to deal with Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Flood, Resource management (ala no fuel), Wildfires, and man made disaster. I use the example of how we were supposedly 3 hours from an economic catastrophein 08. These local plan will fit together like a jigsaw puzzle and be filed underneath the County Management Plan, a useless piece of shelf stock.  

Not once has anyone thought of me as a "survivalist" or tin hat wearer. Instead I've come across complete support. The County sheriff is going to pitch in $ for bulk mailing in the county so the residents can hopefully prepare their own food and emergency supplies.

   The people in my area know that in any disaster we will be on our own. We are a rural area that produces far more food than we can consume but we still have to create new supply chain routes to ensure the people in the city are fed after their 3 day supply of food runs out. Luckily one of the Fire chiefs also owns the Fuel transport business in town, so the group is aware we have at most 4 days of Fuel (on normal usage) and plans to cope with this are in order.

Further is is our goal to ensure that 90% of the community knows the first 3 moves during any crisis which will allow for an operational and communications structure involving the community rather than just govt. employees, actually (there will likely not be any govt. employees able to reach us).

In the event of a massive earthquake we will be able to mobilize the resources to help our population. In a man-made disaster (economic) which disrupt the national supply chain. You will see a population of two towns, and 9 communities turn into a porcupine. We have a large metro area of 2 million, 60 miles away.

   As far as I know very few areas of the country are prepared for such man-made disasters or even large scale natural disasters.

  This community I believe can do a lot to help each of your communities.    

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:26 | 1147294 Eagle1
Eagle1's picture

Mr. Anderson

There is lots of information for your community at

http://www.fema.gov/prepared/plan.shtm

and there is grant money as well that is administered by your state preparedness office. You should get in touch with them. Ours in Alaska does  a lot of outreach to community preparedness and disaster planning

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:36 | 1147327 Mr Anderson
Mr Anderson's picture

Thank you for the link, I will use it at my meeting later today

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:42 | 1146851 Ergo
Ergo's picture

Almost no one I know has silver.  The only crowd is investors who are wise to what Central Banks are doing with their fiat.  And that isn't stopping.  And every month, those silver investors have more to invest. 

Silver will run to $50.  I'll not worry about it before then. 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:34 | 1147110 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

eagles, maples, pandas at auction on Ebay are all near or at $50 already. as for most people i know, they have no idea and are at most, curious if that. the parameters and scale of the economic dislocation are generally far beyond ordinary comprehension. in this respect one must consider the extraordinary efforts devoted by the media to disinformation, misdirection and outright deception. most people will cling desperately to their paper as they both spiral down the consuming vortex. some of us however have been accumulating large reservoirs of the "tears of the moon".

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 22:04 | 1148047 uno2well
uno2well's picture

I go in here every time I'm in Vancouver to pick up some silver and gold maples: http://www.bullioncoinsandbars.com/products.htm

They always have a good selection on hand and there are no questions asked, just give me the cash and take the bullion.

I've been buying them since early 2009 when I watched a certain Middle Eastern country loading gold bullion on a private aircraft in the NYC area to fly it the fuck out of the country, so I got in at a pretty good price.

But I have a question for anyone on the board... Does anyone know anything about the reporting requirements to the Feds (in Canada) for cashing out bullion? There's a sign at J&M that says you must give them your driver's license for any sales to them (because of all the petty crime in Vancouver, fucking crackheads, but I think it's just a local requirement) and the last time I bought some, there was a new sign saying you needed to give your social insurance number in addition to your DL for any sales over $200.00. Does anyone know WTF that's all about?

I got in at a very decent price and was thinking of taking some of my original investment back (like when I go to the casino, I prefer to play with the house's money and keep mine.)

I'm in my 30's and plan on keeping the majority of my maples for a long time.

Thanks in advance!

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:53 | 1146887 Creed
Creed's picture

Don't talk about investing in silver to "friends" unless it's strictly paper silver.

If things get bad enough your home may become a target.

Never trsut anyone when it comes to money, too many worship it & will kill for it.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:19 | 1147043 Mangadan
Mangadan's picture

Get some friends who don't need inverted commas. Quickly.

Nicole Foss @ http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/ has a point when she says that irl social connections are the only way to get through financial collapse.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 22:19 | 1148080 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

well if they want some, they can come and get some..........

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:54 | 1146898 yabyum
yabyum's picture

I speculate in stocks and paper. I save in the metal (US junk).

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:02 | 1146930 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

I've been trying for two years to get family, friends, and colleagues into silver, with almost no success.  To a person, that admit they should have done it, but they think the gains are behind us, over and over again (afraid to catch a bounding mine).  I am convinced they will only enter when they see the value of their cash holdings deteriorate (obvious retail inflation).

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:30 | 1147309 Creed
Creed's picture

gao

bear in mind Mr. Walmarts statement about oncoming serious inflation

it's going to be out in the open soon; I see that statement as the leading edge of awareness

I think the herd is going to start looking at pm's real soon...by this fall

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:03 | 1147451 DosZap
DosZap's picture

gaop,

Sell the idea as INSURANCE, not profiteering at this point.

Ask them if they are prepared to lose 40-50%+ value of every dollar they have worked for all their lives...in that light, it makes a lot sense to the naysayers.

We're sitting at well over 10% inflation rate right now........

And that figure comes from using the OLD style Gv't method.

So, I figure it's closer to 20%.(certain items excluded), but, the really hard part has not even started yet.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:24 | 1147069 SparkyvonBellagio
SparkyvonBellagio's picture

SILVER/GOLD - The easiest money you'll ever make.

 

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:27 | 1147089 Crack-up Boom
Crack-up Boom's picture

Been trying to talk my sister into buying any PM for months (even small amounts).  She's afraid the transaction will be "tracked" and the PMs confiscated.  I don't know anyone else in PMs at all, but most of us don't discuss our investments too much.  I'm just trying to get people to see that the economy isn't recovering.  if I can get them to believe that, then we'll talk about what to do about it.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:04 | 1147461 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Then buy them for her, and there's no trace.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 21:09 | 1147879 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Nothing like a few silver coins as a gift...

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:14 | 1147502 solgundy
solgundy's picture

who is Jeff Clark and does he get paid to right this drivel??????????????????????

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:53 | 1147643 bigelkhorn
bigelkhorn's picture

and what about oil...that stuff is black gold recently.

 

Live video analysis on crude and what is happening in crude lately by the guy over at http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com Very interesting stuff. And worth a watch. WOW!


Video ==> http://bit.ly/i14IaI


Shows you the technical side to crude and proof for where it is going. A nice touch!

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:53 | 1147650 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I don't know anyone else thats buying silver either, SD. You, me and other wise folks on ZH is about it. Of course everybody in China, SE Asia, India and the Mid East are piling in. Good on them, push PMs up some more!

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 20:15 | 1147706 Slipmeanother
Slipmeanother's picture

Silver been on backorder at NZ mint but got another 40ozs today of the silver fern bullion coin

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 20:58 | 1147827 SparkyvonBellagio
SparkyvonBellagio's picture

Metals will allow you get rich quick. Support Obama and buy Precious Metals.

He's showing you the way to Easy Street.

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 22:49 | 1148149 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

you're gonna have a lot of friends down the road.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 00:09 | 1148506 mr66
mr66's picture

I go to an upscale gym in L.A. and I usually ask people I bump into if they saw the last price on Gold or Silver.  99% look at me like I was from another planet.  If silver is red hot, it is not even on the radar screen of the affluent in Los Angeles.  Most are still licking their real estate wounds and are like deer caught in the headlights.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 02:04 | 1148836 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Until Cash4Gold.com turns into Gold4Cash.com, we're nowhere near a bubble in Ag or Au!

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:27 | 1146769 Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

 

i'll tack on a 2nd mrtg if it gets south of $30

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:59 | 1146900 dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

Get your monster boxes while the premium is still below 5. W/ states after states passing laws to re-monetizing government minted gold and silver coins there'll be a tremendous demand of gold/silver eagles.

 

Government-minted PM coins will shine. If you are Americans then go for GE/SE. If Canadians then maples. If Australians then Perth Mint. The situation is Can and Aus is not as dire tho.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:04 | 1147467 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Or, Junk....................

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:28 | 1146771 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Sell in May and go away?

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:27 | 1146776 Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

...then buy it back in june

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:30 | 1146777 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

To call silver an "investment" is to seek gains in dollars, a possible, but wholly nonsensical goal.

It's backwards thinking like this that caused me to stop giving Doug Casey my money substitutes.

Silver and gold are money. One does not invest in money, one saves it for investment (or future consumption).

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:34 | 1146808 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, great store of value for your future investments after fiat dies or falters.  Perhaps even good for making purchases of assets that actually return a dividend along the way (i.e. I sold some gold in November and bought more land and rental properties).

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:41 | 1146845 mdwagner
mdwagner's picture

Exactly right.  An ounce of silver will always be worth an ounce of silver.  You can't say the same thing about dollars.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:47 | 1146868 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Nice perspective.

I keep telling my wife we'll buy our mountain cabin retreat with some rolls of silver coins one day and she's ready for it to be next week. Well, it might not be a few rolls of silver coins, but who knows what the future holds.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:55 | 1146902 trav7777
trav7777's picture

tell her you're going to buy yourselves a younger woman as a companion

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:20 | 1147053 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

Don't you ever do anything but shit on people.  You are a pitiful example of a human being

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 09:16 | 1149482 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

Don't you ever do anything but shit on people.  You are a pitiful example of a human being

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:02 | 1147447 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Classic

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:50 | 1146873 Carl Spackler-t...
Carl Spackler-the Creator of Spackler Feather Bent's picture

Hmmm!  Silver is not an investment?  Then who owns the 120% gains in the last year I have made on Silver? 

FYI - the definition of an investment is:

"Investment is putting money into something with the expectation of profit. More specifically, investment is the commitment of money or capital to the purchase of financial instruments or other assets so as to gain profitable returns in the form of interest, dividends, or appreciation of the value of the instrument (capital gains)."

Nuff said!  Go enjoy your loss of 5% per year on paper.  I will continue to enjoy nice triple digit gains.  At least you can use your paper money in the fireplace to keep warm!

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:21 | 1147261 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

You seem to have missed my definition of money.

As for who owns your "gains," well, the answer is the IRS if you choose to lock them in.

Meanwhile, I have no taxable gains to worry about. All I have is money, real money.

FYI, if you want to invest in silver, then you buy mining companies, or start your own.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 19:57 | 1147655 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

bs... I observe PM sales all the time that go unreported. Check out your local swap meets on weekends, what you see will blow your skirt up.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:29 | 1146779 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Who on this board knows more then 2 people personally who buy silver?

 

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:30 | 1146790 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I've never met anyone that I didn't convince, which is probably around 5 people.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:47 | 1146860 gabeh73
gabeh73's picture

Only people I know are people I have personally convinced and had to show them where to buy it. The last tiem I convinced anyone was int he summer of 2008 and I think they finally bought some physical the week before silver crashed...so after that I don't try and convince anyone any more. fuckem.

 

With other people I still get made fun of  it even though I was telling people to buy at $5/oz...700% later and they still think I AM THE CRAZY ONE!

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:34 | 1146802 baustibaustafa
baustibaustafa's picture

Not that I know many people, but, I am the only one I know who buys silver. 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:36 | 1146816 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Me, pick me.

Aside from my clients, I know several that now purchase silver. But only because I introduced them to silver as Johnny Silverseed and then encouraged them to buy more on their own. Precious metals are so far from the mind of the average Joe that there's no longer a 'natural' market in the USA.

But that is rapidly changing.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/johnny-silverseed

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:34 | 1146817 koeleköpke
koeleköpke's picture

Prins Laurent from Georges Forrest !

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:54 | 1146894 Peterpaul
Peterpaul's picture

At my little firm of 13 lawyers and 8 aids, only two buy silver. One is a old enough to have bought before the last run up in the 1970s - and has continued to buy regularly for 40 years. He considers me the new accolyte.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:50 | 1146879 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Significant other, brother, cousins (RICH ones), mom, dad (deceased) ....

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:53 | 1146891 Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

Silversmith so I don't count.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:56 | 1146904 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Over the past 10+ years I've been buying silver most of the friends I talk to just give me one of those "pat on the head" looks of "awww...ain't he cute." Most of them don't seem to understand why anyone would buy silver, or gold, for anything other than jewelry.

I can't tell you how many times I've been told about the precious metals crash of the early 80s by folks who hopped on the bandwagon late and figured I was too stupid to see it coming again. I accept that I might be. However, my first indicator of when I should sell is when they start buying again, likely at the peak, and get drilled yet again.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:03 | 1146948 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Uh, me.

Believe me, this isn't the parabolic blow off top. When we see $95-$150, maybe. Alot of the issues in question to cause an actual super-spike are depending on Benron Bernanke.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:16 | 1147018 TeMpTeK
TeMpTeK's picture

I know several that own physical silver.. But they all have been harrassed and ear beaten into submission by yours truly.. Without me they would not have Silvation...

 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:16 | 1147257 medicalstudent
medicalstudent's picture

silvation... pinnacle terminology.

 

props measured in troy.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 17:21 | 1147057 dearth vader
dearth vader's picture

There are only a few people who know I bought PMs. I talked about it with three couples (of the boomer generation) and got only one of them slightly interested, but then they didn't buy and now prices have spiraled beyond their buying horizon.

The only one person I know of to possess PMs is an in-law, whom I believe has been a modest antique coin collector for several decades, and with a completely different outlook.

That's all.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 18:11 | 1147233 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

I do, but they are the ones I imposed my Will upon. Ceaseless rants and forced web visits to Harvey's and Turd's is what they got from me. This probably doesn't count.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 20:21 | 1147720 KingdomKum
KingdomKum's picture

Sorry, SD  -  I've been preaching to the wind for some time now to no avail -

but I suspect I'll discover many friends when doomsday arrives  .  .  . 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 22:23 | 1148085 uno2well
uno2well's picture

I know of only 1 person that took my advice back in 09 to load up on physical bullion... he bought me a bottle of Blue Label a couple months ago to say thank you! 

I tried to convince my extended family to do the same at the time, but my father was burned when the Hunts got taken out and doesn't trust it anymore and the rest of them think I wear a tin-foil hat 24/7. But they're all fucking sheep, totally and completely. 

On a separate note, I highly recommend one of these in addition to your bullion if SHTF: 

http://shop.katadyn.com/product/8013618?catalog_id=1&language_id=1

This is by far the best thing to have with you when you're camping or when the zombies attack and you need to bug-out ;-) Unfortunately, I don't think it filters out radiation!

 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 00:21 | 1148546 55 men
55 men's picture

I can think of 5 people, one is a friend and his mom and the others are my dad and my brothers. My dad has been buying for 20 years, in fact he got me involved in some sort of MLM that dealt with buying gold (best idea for an MLM). I used to love counting all his pm's, at the time I had no idea what it was all for or what it meant. The one thing he always told me was...This will always have value...In hind sight, I wish I would have taken his advice...I remember in highschool thinking were am I going to get $350 for an ounce of gold..I have been buying silver since it was $11, so for a couple years now. I am in for the long haul.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:29 | 1146784 Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

i don't count, i'm in a club...know lots...thankfully

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:32 | 1146787 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

Thoughtful people understand the earnings potential for Silver investment.  I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for more than 2% of the population to get wise either.  It will be a small number who benefit from attaching to the Silver market.  Industry jewelrymaking Silverware and photography will continue to be the main drivers of the market. 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 16:31 | 1146794 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

are you kidding???????????????????????????

do you grasp what is in a tomahawk missile?

and in half the electronics in your home?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!