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Guest Post: Silver Is Getting Too Popular… Right?
Submitted by Jeff Clark of Casey Research
Silver Is Getting Too Popular… Right?
It’s no secret that the silver market is red hot. As I write, silver American Eagles and Canadian Maple Leafs are sold out
at their respective mints. Buying in India has gone through the roof,
especially noteworthy among a people with a strong historical preference
for gold. Demand in China continues unabated. Silver stocks have
screamed upward.
So, as an investor looking to maximize my profit,
I have a natural question: is the silver trade getting too crowded,
meaning we’re near the top? Have the masses finally joined the party
such that we should consider exiting? After all, it’s not a profit until
you take it, and you definitely want to sell near the top.
There
are several ways to measure how crowded the silver market might be. I
prefer to look strictly at the big picture and not get caught up in the
weeds. This means I’m looking for signs of market exhaustion or the
masses rushing in. Nothing says “peak” more than an investment everyone
is buying.
So how crowded are silver investments right now? Let’s first look at the ETFs.
At
$35 silver, all exchange-traded funds backed by the metal amount to
$20.7 billion. You can see how this compares to some popular stocks. All
silver ETFs combined are less than a quarter of the market cap of
McDonald’s. They’re about 10% of GE, a company that still hasn’t
recovered from the ’08 meltdown. Exxon Mobil is more than 20 times
bigger. And this isn’t even apples-to-apples, as I’m comparing the
entire silver ETF market to a few individual stocks.
This is even
more interesting when you consider that it’s the ETFs where most of the
public – especially those that are new to the market – first invest in
silver. So while the metal has doubled in the past seven months, total
investment in the funds is still far beneath many popular blue-chip
stocks.
Okay, maybe all this money is instead going into silver
mining stocks. How does the market cap of the silver industry compare to
other industries?
While
you fetch your magnifying glass, I’ll tell you thatthe market cap of
the silver industry is $73.1 billion. It barely registers when compared
to a number of other industries I picked mostly at random. The dying
newspaper industry is over 26 times bigger. Drug manufacturers are 213
times larger. Heck, even the gold market is 19 times greater. And here’s
the fun one: the market cap of the entire silver market, with all its
record-setting prices and stock-screaming highs, represents just
one-third of one percent of the oil and gas industry.
To be fair,
there are a number of sectors that are smaller than silver. Radio
broadcasters ($43.2B), video stores ($10.9B), and sporting goods stores
($2.5B) have puny market caps, too. But then again, who's buying DVDs or
baseball mitts to protect their wealth from a coming inflation?
Silver hardly resembles the picture of an investment that is too crowded.
I’m not saying one should rush to buy silver right now. After all, it has
doubled in seven months. Unless this is the beginning of the mania,
prudence would certainly be called for at this juncture. The price will
always ebb and flow in a bull market, and an ebb is overdue.
The
question, of course, is from what price level it occurs. What if a
correction doesn’t ensue until, say, a month from now, and the price
falls back to… where it is now? I remember some articles in January that
insisted silver would fall to as low as $22, and, well, they’re still
waiting and have in the meantime missed out on some huge gains. For
silver to fall back to $22 now would require a 40% drop; not impossible,
but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Fixating on market timing takes
your focus off the ultimate goal. In my opinion, instead of worrying
about what will happen next week or even next month, focus on how many
ounces you have, and then buy at regular intervals until you reach your
desired allocation. This has the added benefit of smoothing out your
cost basis. And don’t forget to buy more as your assets and income
increase.
This is a market where you'll want to be well ahead of
the pack. Someday in the not-too-distant future, average investors will
be tripping over themselves to join in. That will make the market caps
of our silver investments look more like some of the others in the
charts above. And that will do wonderful things to our portfolio.
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same here, and, even with all of its gains, i'm still being ridiculed for wearing a tin foil hat.
I do wonder if it's ran up too quickly here. Weakening dollar hasn't kept up with sky-rocketing silver lately. At this pace when does it end...$40, $50, $60, $70?
I have had the some thought and every time I say to myself, "Dollars are FIAT" I need something that can hold it's value at the very least. As long as the US has gargantuian debt...the world has hundreds and hundreds of Trillions of derivative debt silver will keep going up...not in a streight line mind you, no market does. From here to 2020 silver will be a bull market! :)
As I type this, Au = $1466/Toz and Ag = $40.07/Toz. (Dollar index = 75.23)
logic, which unfortunately has little to do with markets especially of late, would dictate that given marketshare and scarcity silver should only go up. And it should go up even with many more buyers driving the price up, right?
Yeah. This author's problem is he's still in a trading mentality, not an investment mentality. Silver's undervalued severaly compared to something like NFLX or another equity. It's losing supply and demand is increasing. There will be downs I'm sure of it, but the trend is your friend and frankly we're not going anywhere but up and I don't see that stopping at all unless people decide they no longer want:
There are hundreds of uses and then some. Somewhere along the process of making almost all goods Silver was involved. Besides, we consume 1/10th of what we mine as of 2009 so -- what the fuck are you doing "calling a top" for a commodity that's literally about to be extinct from the goddamn ground. These articles are just frustrating me lately. So many stupid posts about silver and no one's just stating the facts and moving on.
Personally I'm long silver and land fills.
Not sayin', I'm just sayin'
11. medicinal uses
12. solar panels
13. Anti bacterial applications
It can dip as far as it wants, it won't matter. Everyone buys the fucking dip now. I personally just buy regardless of price. I'm not seeing a top for several years out unless everything just shits itself, which I don't see happening just yet but, who the fuck am I anyway right?
What I do
This way it's way easier to handle the inevitable ups and downs -- and when opportunity comes knocking you're not sitting on your hands wishing you had some liquidity to throw at the dip.
Every friend I've attempted talking to about silver at most finds it a mildly interesting momentary topic - and then moves on. So, I don't talk about it anymore.
buy it whenever and forever.
silver can survive any market... same as trading cards
Just this week a colleague asked me where to buy silver, and that after I've been bragging about it for months(sorry). It made me stop to ask the same question, especially given the assumption a commodity is overbought the moment backwardation end. Nevertheless its hard to see how silver could be hot without seeing ads on tv for silver investment. Doesn't mean a correction isn't due; I'm actually toying with the idea of taking some profits soonish and jumping back in on the correction. Sell in May, huh?
Maybe...
There will be a top in the PM's when:
1. The world has solved its debt problems
2. America is not a war
3. There is peace in the middle east
Etc, Etc.......
Until then, BUY!
Nice logic
Nice Tits
You can say that again!
Nice logic
Nice Tits
but especially NICE tits!
My commodities account broker, who was also a friend, used to tell me on Friday Afternoon when I called to see if there was anything he wanted to tell me, "Well, you should be okay, John; unless peace and prosperity break out over the weekend". I always remembered this; it kind of sums up the situation. The only information we have as to conditions in the market is the price chart; the price chart will inflect and become exponential, ( like a ski jump ramp), when the market is topping. All attempts to second guess the market by "counting investors", etc. are not usable.
The key to silver that the elites don't want you to know is that it is a very scarce metal and may disappear from the planet within 40-50 years, or even sooner if the investment demand goes parabolic. Over 90% of silver ever mined has been lost forever due to industrial use. There was never a cost benefit to reclaiming a gram of silver, unlike gold.
Perhaps in my lifetime the ratio of gold/silver will reverse.
that is why silver should rise as more people get in. i don't understand the logic of this article that silver will depreciate as more on the bandwagon get in on this PM. Silver should on average rise. And silver has more uses in industry than gold and is much scarcer. But what the hell do I know?
IMO, the real key is that buying physical silver takes wealth out of the system that the drug-running, money laundering, war-mongering, ponzi fraudster elites can't use for all their illicit endeavors.
What be thy age in earth years?
humanity, at a point, will want the silver owners to run things.
they are smart, prudent, and efficient people.
when this wealth transfer happens it will be for a reason.
as the holders will then be given the power to... lets just say... rearrange things.
I don't think that silver recycling is not happening.
In one time in the future I will seriously consider going into recycling or scrap metal business
Until then.... Buying silver
maybe all those Berkshire Hathaway investors think Warren never sold his silver?
What will these threads look like when silver is approaching $45 in a few weeks?
My thought's exactly...
About the same, Turd. We are, for the most part, preaching to the choir. The real activity will be on HSN selling Eagles, and the lines at the WE BUY GOLD stores in the mall will lengthen. Other than that, it's a ho-hum event.
Oh, yeah, here's your joke-of-the-day:
Class-action suit accuses UBS of Charging Storage Fees On "Phantom" Silver.
In 1984, Michigan resident Laurin Ramsey purchased 10 pieces of 100 ounce pure silver bars from the Swiss bank UBS or its Paine Webber subsidiary. Ever since, he had paid $25 per month for storage fees. A few years ago, he tired of paying the storage fees and contacted the bank to arrange delivery. Instead of delivery, Ramsey only got the runaround......READ MORE
Turd,
I have a feeling the march to $50 and beyond may come quicker than most people think. Thanks to ZH and sites like yours, the cat is out of the bag.
spaulding has left the building........
Ag at $40.10/Toz as I type this (Dollar index at 75.22)
Ppssstttt....
Where do you get silver at $35.00...?
The past.
Unfortunately, Marty and Doc Brown don't show up for four more years.
Bought three 2011 Eagles for $32.50 each earlier this week. Going to net 20% before they get here. By the time I hit "save" below, the USD lost 20%. It's not that complicated.
I don't know any of my friends buying silver or gold. I've talked to my Mom and convinced her to try to set aside some money and get some. I don't go around announcing that I have metals. There are some people I work with who come from India, and they buy silver and gold, because their view of it obviously differs from most in the west.
crash jp morgan...buy silver??? anyone following this jazz?
I have a very extended family and me and my brother are the only ones buying Silver. So this bubble may be hard to burst. We'll probably run out of Silver long before enough people can get in.
I have a very large extended family (10 households) allmost all capitalists, investors, landlords, real-estate developers, engineers, professionals.
My dad and I, are the only ones who own more than $1000K in physical silver or gold.
And even the two of us, we have less than 5% of our "wealth" in it.
We could see a 50% pull-back in silver. I'd welcome it. I know I'm a buyer on the first 10% correction. But if a 50% pull-back happends, it probably means stocks, gold, REITs are down at least 30%.
When the pension funds start moving in Blythe will be catching that flight to visit with Hugo.
Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment! Silver is not an investment!
We know that. It is hoarding and wealth preservation and we are glad it is not edible. Thus, non-organic non-perishable.
I agree, and I know at least 20,000 people who buy silver
Really? You KNOW 20,000 people........impressive. I doubt I know 1000 or 2 by name.....
Why is Kitco out of silver monster boxes? Did Kitco decide to sell all of them because of your bearish sentiment on silver? Sell them for more now than for less later, right?
i know nobody, except for a friend who opened my eyes, who is buying any silver, or gold for that matter. store signs that i walk by read "we buy gold" they dont even bother to advertise that they buy silver. when the day comes that stores read "we sell gold and silver" that is when you get out
Since there are "we buy gold" signs partout, do you imply that gold has peaked and it's time to get out?
Or, is it the underlying fundamentals (QE, Wars, TBTF etc.) that "give PMs value"?
I'm of the latter opinion, and won't be selling even when coin shops do want to buy.
@magis---nooo im not implying gold has peaked. im stating that silver is so unknown that stores dont bother stating they are buying it. gold is at least on the radar. and my point is that when these store signs turn the other way, offering to sell you gold and/or silver, thats when you get out.
Depends on GET out into WHAT.
Johnnysilverseed! ROTFL
The banksters with their free money stack it in large numbers no doubt, but more importantly the Indians and Chinese have discovered it as an investment, and that is what counts.
maybe you shold figure out how many people have the ability to invest these days. I am tapped out I would like to but can't
Late to the party? How did you feel when silver was $10/oz ?
You should be able to afford this:
The Mint is back selling the 2010 silver quarter sets after taking them down from the website. (Mint product: SV2) The previous price was $32.99 as I recall.
The pricing is still very attractive for several reasons. You all can figure out most of them, but for the tin-foil-hat crowd these are numismatic coins. The possibility that they would become illegal to own is very slim to nonexistent.
There is a tad over 0.90 ounce of silver in the set (regular content of silver for pre-1965 coinage). The Mint charges $4.95 for any purchase so that is all the charge for any size order. At $39.95 per set there isn't much downside.
I've got mine, so get what you want:
2010 United States Mint America the Beautiful Quarters Silver Proof Set
Buy some basic jewlery making equipment and declare yourself a silver/goldsmith. You can own all the pm's you want. Just learn the basics.
Perhaps. In some States these activities are already licensed and/or taxed. You'd have to show a history and IRS filings to qualify. TPTB have already been down that road.
I picked up a hundred sets at the old price. They made me jump through hoops before they would finally fill my order including two (time limit) letters from the Mint that I needed to sign confirming my order. I suspect they didn't want to sell me one hundred at $32.95 per. Too bad. I'm already in the green.
The great part was that they shipped the three boxes via overnight express, which must have put them back at least $100 in shipping and all I paid was $4.95. I loved it.
I knew you'd like that deal. I bought plenty but I already had an account at the Mint and have a credit card on file. No problemo. Just for grins I bought another 25 sets at the new, higher price. What the heck. I'm a numismatist, doncha know.
That was the odd thing. I've been buying from the mint for a decade and already had an account. Not sure why they were jerking me around but it worked out. I also bought more at the higher price. I see these silver proof sets as easily convertible/saleable at a later time when newbies are trying to buy silver. Or I can just sit on them.
I waited until the hype and smoke cleared and bought 3 sets of the America The Beautiful 5 ounce size "quarters". Got them at about 1% over spot; all the sets were under $975 per set. I really feel sorry for the folks who bought these things when they came out for thousands of dollars per set. The key was that the Mint told the primary dealers that they could not order the 2011 sets until ALL of the 2010 sets were sold. They then just dumped all the ones they had left. Have you seen these monster "coins"?
http://coins.coinupdate.com/america-the-beautiful-silver-bullion-coins/
You sent me an email on this and I bought a few sets. While they might not be as easy to move as small change, the purity and size makes them usable for large purchases or exchanges/barters.
I've been following a path of diversification in my silver purchases. I suspect some of my buys will never be quite as valuable as others, but by spreading my money over a wide variety of silver products I can never do worse than their melt value and might even hit it big on some special purchases. If I buy the same thing all the time I run the risk of that product falling out of favor for a period of time and I'm stuck with no alternative. While the bulk of my buys are Eagles, these Mint products will retain their value equally well.
And - and - and --- they are NUMISMATIC coins.
Da gummint ain't gonna take 'em from us!
Hey Rocky, so they are .18 ounces of silver each? There is 5 to the set.
These are standard 90% silver quarters. Just like the 1964 Washington quarter. 5 of them have 0.90+ ounce of pure silver. At today's silver price it's $35.844 in the set.
1932-1964 Washington Quarter $0.25 $7.1688Just ordered ten sets of the 2010 coins. They asked where I heard about it, zero hedge was not on the list so I said I do not know, then they asked what I like to collect, I said boxes, then they asked why I want coins, I selected Education to teach children etc. Anyway, the shipping and handling makes this deal for me. I can give them as gifts down the road. Thanks for sharing guys.
You were just under the wire. NO LONGER AVAILABLE at that pricing level.
RR - I want to thank you for that tip-off when you originally posted it! I went in and bought a TON of the stuff (maybe it was me who caused them to de-list of a while...oops). When it FINALLY came in the mail (a month?? Gimme a break!) I looked at the invoice and, guess what? Including shipping my entire purchase was made for under spot. Sweet! BFF! (God, did I really say that??)
Accumulated silver eagles Jan '08-May 2010. I was a leper talking to friends/family to buy under 20 spot! Had one friend ask me where to buy last month at 35 spot. Once we get to 100 an ounce, we early bird johnny silverseeds will leave the leper colony in style.
Our family does a gift exhange every year becuase of family size for a max. of $50.
Bought brother two Eagles and he looked at me
like WTF. That was two years ago. I reminded him the other day those Eagle are worth about $90 today.
He seems to get it now
Don't give up on the ones you love
yeah, I gave my brother in law a 1oz gold coin about 4 years ago for christmas...
i wonder if he gets it yet.
I think about giving a couple of Eagles to a couple of friends that are getting married soon. Risky?
I gave each of my nephews and nieces four 1 oz. silver bars for Christmas...
i have been buying PMs and specifically silver since the late 90s. Since then, I have converted 1 person to buy metals and he doesn't buy physical but just dabbles with the etfs for aa quick buck.
I have even been ridiculed for buying silve from a couple of folks. (smiling all the while.)
plus, i catch dave ramsey now and then, and while i agree with alot of what he says, he is wrong on metals. he preaches selling your scrap metals and to never invest in PM's. I heard him once say you shouldn't buy gold because it has no track record.
Ask them if they know what their annualized rate of return is.
I agree that silver's long term bull run is not over. But still, I want to see what happens with QE3 before getting back in.
Don't be too clever by half in this instance.
The only peeps I know who have silver are selling it because they think it's "high in price." I've tried to convince them otherwise, but they're severly brainwashed.
I've been trading $US for PM's steadly over the past 8 months when I can, if there's a good pull back and as much as i can afford. The #1 thing is still worry about is not having enough. Last thing I want is to be caught with a pile of toilet paper Benny Bucks.
I've been buying dribs and drabs since it was $10/oz, wish I had bought much more. However, my question is what's best to buy. I know physical, but are the eagles and maple leafs the way to go, 90% silver US coinage, sterling silver flatware? Seems they all have different characteristics - bullion is wholly dependent on the price of silver. Old 90% silver coins do have possible numismatic value in addition to the bullion value? Just kidding about the sterling flatware......or was I.
Any thoughts?
100oz bars -lowest premium on 99.9%
Tough to store and transport and unload when you need to. Bars will need an assay when silver is high and just any regular Joe can't do that. I think keeping in mind the reason for having it will dictate the form it takes. 100 oz doorstops or boat anchors might be fine for you.
The original questioner should buy exactly what he listed other than the flatware, of course. Bullion grade coins are easy to use in transactions and recognized by anyone. Pre-1965 coinage will be all the rage! I can buy produce at my local farmer's market right now. Most of the sellers have a chart that shows the weights of common U. S. silver coinage. Tomorrow has come.
What do you think about base metals? Here, in Canada, 99.9% nickels are still very available. I see that some nickel bags is sold at weight on eBay.
I wish I'd pulled more silver coins out of circulation back when I was in junior high school!
1946-2011 Nickel$0.05 face
$0.0696080 metal value
Yes, and canadian nickels are worth around 12 cents US in base metals. I mean, it all goes down to how much time and dedication you have. I'm looking to pull by volume, but after my silver hoarding. I just can't leave those sweet sweet morgans dollars for 25$ CAD rot at my local coin dealer.
IF the CFTC ever actually impliments realistic Comex position limits, and the large banks begin to cover their massive shorts, $40 will be seen as a bargain for Ag.
I've got Mo at the convenience store going thru his change daily looking for junk silver for me,for his trouble's I trade him free-range egg's. win-win. And yes,the silver hold's up much better at room temp. than the egg's-indeed,a store of value!
The author talks about "selling at the top" ... who is this guy? Is it 1996 and silver is the new Iomega? Anybody who wants to top tick silver has more balls than I do, I buy and hold physical, long mining shares.
Pick your personal top price and move out of silver into whatever asset class you like. I don't see any inconsistency in the approach. I have a price. So do you.
does silver and gold drop as much as it did in 2008 when the market crashes again in the next year?
With rising margin costs, and silver having moved into much stronger hands, this seems unlikely. The unlikelihood is further compounded by the fact that significantly fewer people see the dollar as a safe haven any more. Talk of default is even on the MSM. That was no-where on the radar in 2008.
If it were to happen, all physical supply would simply disappear again, and your would likely end up with a COMEX default as those who are on to the game went long and demanded delivery at the low low prices. As I have said in the past, if the price falls significantly without the discovery of some new REAL supply, then the endgame in the COMEX will be upon us, at which point you hold on to your hat, and load up as much as possible.
Just me and my 15 year old son, the only folks I know... in Mexico...
Casey research makes money on gold and silver since the 80's or so.
For these guys and other like them, price going straight up without pullbacks is not profitable.
Chatter starts after each record breaking where some collective shorting or inactivity from the big boys starts. Then, after sometime of downward and sideways price they jump back in.
Google "gold price drop" or similar wording on a daily basis and when the hits start getting very high, ease off and get ready to re-enter. Just saying?
You sound like that's a hit to Doug Casey. It's not. That's what they do. Not like they hide it. Some people regularly buy and sell in/out of the metals based on the ratios. It's good tradable strategy.
I agree. That's why the article's timing. I am doing the same.
Why don't we all sell tomorrow and buy, let' say next Thursday en masse. Wouldn't that break Blyth's back?
dbl
Next week $40 we will reach the even number
It's like dow 10000 lol
Maybe tomorrow with this looming shutdown going on.
Hong Kong buyers have already driven the price of Ag to $40.12/Toz
Having just entered the PM arena via silver, I can tell you it had nothing to do with seeking a return, but everything to do with preserving some intrinsic value of all of my savings in a world where the Fed, Treasury, Ben Bernanke and our politicians seem content to destroy the value of the dollar. I am not looking for a gain. I am voting no confidence in their willingness or ability to pull the dollar out of a nosedive.
The US is like a subprime borrower now, with multiple payday loans to make ends meet day to day. I am tightening my underwriting credit quality, and no longer believe they will pay their debts in full, so I'm cutting their credit by reducing exposure to FRNs and buying the only thing left on the pyramid - PMs.
exactly right. you cannot "gain" from an investment in PMs, but you can MAINTAIN the value of your "money" by converting fiat dollars into PMs. PMs rise or fall based on the value of the fiat dollar.
lol. Just left my friendly local credit union (need to pay for Maple Leafs with a cashiers check) and bumped into the manager on the way out. I asked if she was seeing a lot of new customers. She said "yes, everyone seems to hate the big banks these days". All I said was "physical silver baby".
She replied with a smirk: "Even the Mayans loved silver."
COMEX busts on silver deliveries next month.
SLV (physical gone) and GLD (physical almost depleted) have only paper IOU's.
Customers run making sure that all their precious is really in the vaults to find nothing but IOU's instead.
LBMA defaults.
Paper metals markets default.
SLV and GLD go to ZERO.
Derivitives default.
Banks default.
Complete collapse of the current paper fiat monetary system.
Precious metals price discovery is made on the streets, sending them 500%-1000% higher.
AC
Feels like it. Your time frame is spot on.
May is crash time.
Silver is the new Plutonium.
Good post. Still only know 2 outside of ZH that invest in physical gold and silver. Pull backs have been mild so far. I think 7% the largest this year. We have a long way to go. That and quality miners, no brainer for me.
Until silver gets to around the historical 16:1 ratio with gold it has nowhere near topped out.
At which point I would say transfer silver back into gold or other hard asset classes.
The silver to gold ratio is the real wealth play.
I think, depending on how long it takes to get to 16:1, it will blow past that on momentum. 10:1, 8:1, not impossible.
I agree the ratio may blast lower in the frenzy to come.
The window of opporchunity may not present it's self for long before a reality check and the action meets some gravity as we will be in bubble popping terrority at this point.
Nope. Silver is not too hot. Backwardation until 2015. Getcha some pronto.
It's increasing industrial demand puts a floor under the price of silver and the fiat currency race to the bottom has created an investment appeal that ain't a gonna quit any time soon.
And it just keeps getting better .... JPM and Blythe Masters is getting the short squeeze .... and it's also 75 degrees outside and sunny with birds singing, so buy buy buy.
There are only 2 potential flaws in your argument (and I'm not just being picky ... I believe silver is the best current option):
1. Industrial Production: When TSHTF, sales of iAnythings (and Tomahawks, and batteries) will go through the floor -- thereby removing the industrial silver "floor".
2. Fiat Currencies: TPTB will attempt to introduce an electronic-only currency regime in the US and EU as TSHTF -- thereby removing the ability to use PMs or barter for anything but your eggs and milk at the 'food speakeasy' down the lane. They won't need to physically confiscate when their primary aim is to track (and selectively prohibit) all transactions by all transactors through mandating electronic-only ("in the interests of national security", of course).
I started buying silver in '09 or '10 besides coins I had bought a few years ago as gifts and collectibles. I have only heavily started purchasing just recently. I did not know a single person who owned silver for economical reasons but I have convinced my brother, father (made a profit and sold), friend A whose mom bought also, friend B who was able to get a nice chunk of money from his parents to buy silver, friend B's father is looking to cash out his 401k to put it all in silver, friend C although I don't know if he has actually purchased yet, friend C told friend D to contact me about buying some which he did, coworker A would buy with me regularly, coworker B bought some, online friend A's father was going to but not sure if he did yet, my brother's friend A bought some and my brother's friend B bought some too. I have talked to many more about it and they seem uninterested.
Phase 3 of the bull market will be when the general public becomes aware and enters the fray.
And that will be the time the price rockets much higher and will peak in my opinion.
Timing your exit before the bubble bursts will be key during phase 3.
We are barely into phase 2, with phase 3 an long way off yet.
so the trade is not crowded and nobody is in silver but the few people on zh. then why is the price parabolic? so your buying something at inflated prices that virtualy nobody has an interest in? hahahahahah! Do you think i am going to take stocks or pm's for the food i grow, my storage of food and water, ammo, weapons, shelter etc.? no. you better bring something that you can truely barter. unless your wealthy quit worrying about nonsense and focus on the necessities of life.
Can anyone explain the after hours pop in SLV while spot silver marginally traded down?
It's when I read comments like this, that make me think 'bubble'.
In 1999 I went to a Y2K gold meeting. I was convinced to buy some gold and platinum. I bought 13 oz of gold eagles and 2 oz of platinum eagles for $5000. I still have those coins and continued to buy coins on a regular basis. For the last three years I have bought something every month regardless of the spot price and in both gold and silver. I kept putting the stuff in my SDB and had no idea what I had until I inventoried it last month. Holy crap!
how about mot looking at it ass an investment, but a savings plan, instead of giving your money to a bank to hopld , pay no interest, and leverage to the max on any loans they can manage to get. you save your wealth in silver and gold.
easily convert it back to cash when you need to buy something,. but basically a savings plan that doesnt help feed the beast!
Per Harvey Organ: Tuesday, April 12, 2011 will be the meeting by the CFTC on position limits at 9:30 am.
thanks!
I've been trying to convince the peeps I know to buy PM's especially silver. I keep getting those "god,
it's him again going on about that stuff" looks, y'know ..."he's a bit of a nutter..." NOBODY gets it.
Jeez, I mean what's zero-hedge all about if not exposing the financial disasters that are going to take
the economy to an ever bigger collapse this time round and sky-rocket inflation? Your money is going to
be worth less and less and then what's actually going to be worth something?
Err.... bash bash bash.
No point in measuring it's value against fiat. That's totally pointless.
Arse.
I feel like I'm late to the silver game, waiting for a significant pullback to jump in but it doesn't look like it's happening anytime soon.
I have some money in an extremely high risk stock that is ehh, floundering I'll say; some extra, low interest school loan money and a few thou in credit.
Will wait until QE2-QE3? gap and see what transpires.
Is buying physical on credit a bad idea?
Doesn't matter what the design of the silver is right, eagles, pandas, maggots, should be all the same .99 silver?
oh & btw thanks for that link Rocky.. might be my first silver purchase!
Silver content is what all it's about. You'll pay a premium for coins with fancy designs, limited editions, commemorative stuff etc (if you were thinking of going for coins), so that's a waste of money. Just go for .999 (or .9999). Cheapest you can get.
De nada. Jump on in, the water's fine.
I lost all my silver in a terrible boating accident.
Go long SCUBA gear! :>D
Ha ha Ha,guys,where do you hold your silver?Government will issue report that silver stocked at.......any one cares,you know,government knows where most silver stocked.......this silver got radiation,as result,please,take our appologise for hat silver confiscation.
FED and officials :)))))))))))))))))))
I've got Alzheimer's, please help me remember where I buried it...
We are probably.close to a top but not the ultimate top. I am going to sell soon. I bet i can buy back in at 35. We will see.
print this story out and refer back to it in a year.
:)
Sorry, SD - I'm all alone alone, no one will listen.
But I suspect I'll have many friends when doomsday arrives . . .
yesh, but they won't be friends anymore...
so the author is saying that the trade in ExxonMobil is crowded?
with that logic, katy bar the door on XOM (i.e., it will crash)
I dunno. You guys must not be very convincing...or maybe you have the charisma of an Internet board denizen. I've been very successful at convincing people to buy silver. Now my entire immediate family buys and has gone "all in," best friend now takes his monthly earnings down to the local coin shop and loads up on the 1st (had to buy two new safes he did.) And now at the secret underground bunker where I work, I am holding impromptu economics lessons for the working hausfrauen who are all terrified that their last shot at keeping the family solvent (them working) is going up in inflationary smoke. The two closest coin shops just opened up second branches...I don't know if my legion of loyal followers had anything to do with that, but now we have extra places to descend on. We just have to peel our way through the meth addicts selling grandpa's inheritance (coin collection if the poor sod is still living) and these coin dealers barely have time to inventory.
My take on the whole thing is that the sellers have gotten stupider looking (meth addicts, et al) and the buyers have become more sophisticated looking (i.e. not just coin nerds, but professionals on their luch breaks). That tells me a tipping point is coming. Only so many grandpas were coin collectors. The squeeze is on!!
(And get some charisma people. We need to spread this word...and by extension, our own wealth.)
"get some charisma".
On it's way, just ordered some. Should be here Monday latest.
Things are looking up!
As long as it isn't in backwardation!
(Should have added <humor> to my original post so that people don't think me too "draconian.")
I bought several 1 kilo coins perth Lunar type in oktober '10. It was one of my 1st buys, later I bought 1 oz's as generic as possible. Should I sell the 1 kilo coins and trade them (on dip) for 1 oz's or keep them ?
Depends on how high silver will go.... If it goes up-up-up (and it may) then coins will be easier to manage - sell a few when you need to.
Having kilo's means changing all it's value to fiat at once. Not a problem now but if inflation goes crazy ... ahem ... you're stuck with fiat that will lose it's value a lot faster than now - unless you decide not to keep it and spend it on stuff as soon as you exchange.
I prefer coins myself.... have some bars, but hey, I crazy guy.
i hear complaints if you sell thru legit dealers they have to report anything over $600 to tax man. so 1 oz coins have a lot longer to go till they are reported, say 3 years. where as 1kg coins will be reportable right now.
That idiotic 1099 requirement was recently excised from Obamacare (thanks, Nancy and the Decepticrats!)
I gave a friend an one ounce SML's and he has now bought ROLLS himself now.
A brother inlaw ,...the same thing.He too is now a Roll buy of SML 's
Good to know some people are keeping thier eye on the ball.
If you want to get others into the game, give them some! If you tell them to buy 1) they won't cause most people are broke 2) they'll think you're an idiot: "what? $150 for a roll of dimes!!?"
Start with holidays and birthdays.
I paid my hair dresser with 3 circulated Ike dollars (40%) about two months ago (close to an ouce, spot at $28 at the time). Told her to keep them until my next haircut at which point I promised to buy them back. I need a haircut soon and I expect her to give me a pretty good "WTF face" when I hand her $45. This is how you convert the masses.
When people stop referring to the price of silver in U.S. dollars or saying "silver is up" or "silver is down" that's when you will know that the consciousness has changed. Until then you are subject to those who control the supply of U.S. dollars. When people think about their holdings in silver, they consciously translate the value of their investment to dollars. As long as that is the case, the fear and greed component of the value is still present. Look at how many comments say things like "I bought at $15" or "silver is going to $500" or "precious metals are in a bubble." 100% of those comments are subject to someone else's control.
The natural conclusion of breaking free from the value of the silver measured in dollars however is not something to take lightly, for it will also lead to a breaking free from measuring value in anything that is a form. What are forms? Forms are things that are designed to take away your freedom. The form can be whatever you allow it to be. It can be money, real estate, food, possessions.
How valuable is gold & silver? It's as valuable as we decide to make it as a group. No one that I have ever met would be willing to trade their gold for someone they love. In that case, how exactly do you measure the price beyond measuring it in forms created by others?
Is there something wrong with the temporary stewardship of silver or gold? I don't think so. But you may want to consider this. Odds are every ounce of silver or gold that you "own" was "owned" by someone else before you. In that case, who really owns anything that takes any physical form?
I have had the distinct honor to clear out the office and financial records from two very successful men after their passing; my father and my grandfather. Their wealth took many forms that were measured by others, but the only thing left after the "forms" of their possessions had passed onto others is the truth they spoke, the live's they touched and the way that they showed to others.
Buy your silver, sell your silver, just don't count on your silver. It's a form, it's a tool for you to use while you're here to do what it is that you're called to do. It is your servant, not your master. If money's not your master, then Who is?
Dave Harrison
www.tradewithdave.com
well said
The precious can never become "to popular" or over purchas'd the crust of this planet cannot yield that much; gold perhaps too. Daily mortals are finding it's secrets as fresh water becomes a waring factor. New super bugs are coming fast and furious. The stowage of wealth and protection against hyper-inflation weighed against its highest and best use be akin to a popcorn fart in a cat5 hurricane.
If there was a "like" button next to your comment like on Facebook, I would've clicked it. Well said, the finite precious materials are the true currency of our planet.
www.forecastfortomorrow.com
I'm starting to wonder if there will ever really be a top this time. When/if you sell, what are you going to buy of better worth or increasing value? Not fiat currency--that's going down the toilet for the foreseeable future. Not real estate--that's continuing to drop like a rock. I guess you could buy other commodities, but then it's a shell game between commodities. In hyper-i dollars to buy gold/silver will skyrocket, but the value they buy will stay constant or drop further. Gold and Silver are becoming hard currency again bitchez!
I don't touch the stuff. I give my mother 5k a week to buy coins with. I'll know when she passes!
Better get the metal before she passes...2 b safe
The precious metals never go out of style. I was lucky enough to get a hold of some early last year, I'm gonna wait a bit longer and sell it or even keep it longer if I don't feel like I need extra cash. Next bronze is going to rise!
www.forecastfortomorrow.com