Guest Post: The Silver Sleuth

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Wed, 10/27/2010 - 20:25 | 681993 bobert
bobert's picture

My bond portfolio, that I have reduced a great deal, is getting eatin alive these days.

Their is a "silver" ling out there for me somewhere!

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 20:31 | 682004 MiguelitoRaton
MiguelitoRaton's picture

We're the Hunt brothers nailed by the governent for trying to corner the silver market? So what's to prevent other Hunt brothers?...Uh prosecution? But yes, I'm a big fan of silver bullion as an economic insurance policy.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 20:44 | 682039 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The Hunt Brothers used margin, and the government changed the rules in the middle of the game on them, causing a margin call which shut them down and lost them a fortune.

Had they refrained from using leverage, and simply taken physical delivery, we would probably have a different monetary system now, and the Hunt's would be richer than Bill Gates, Sam Walton, the Rockefellers, and the Rothchilds put together.

So now it falls to us.  Take delivery of silver, and become rich.  It's that simple.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 21:49 | 682169 rocker
rocker's picture

The Hunt brothers used margin about the same way JPM got in trouble shorting silver.

When you short more than exist and use collusion of others to achieve your goals.

You belong in Jail. Just like Goldman Sachs does for their efforts in the CDO's and SIVs.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 22:01 | 682194 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

And that is the god damned irony of the whole JPM silver debacle right there.

The Hunt's were criminals but JPM is a respected bank? Right!

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 23:10 | 682311 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Anyone see that ad tonight during the World Series by JPM? I've never seen a bigger piece of propaganda in my life. Something like,

"This way forward, into the future, working together", type of busllshit.

I say let's burn these fuckers to the ground on the illegal and immoral gold/silver manipulation is the way "forward".

 

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 23:58 | 682403 Rahm
Rahm's picture

Not for long...

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 03:56 | 682664 Chappaquiddick
Chappaquiddick's picture

Rocker - I'm trying to get to the bottom of some of the current investment themes surrounding silver.  Could you please tell me where you have derived the information that the silver market is shorted more than exists?

I've written to GATA on claims they've made regards silver abundance ratios, recycling and silver going extinct and got pointed towards Ted Butler.  I'm looking to find the data that backs up these statements. Can you help?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 07:31 | 682793 BearOfNH
BearOfNH's picture

Ted Butler uses the CFTC Commitment of Traders report which lists the long and short positions broken down by trader type. Large speculators are net short a lot of silver, small speculators are net long. Convert from contracts to ounces, compare with mine production figures and you get these kinds of results.

 

Mon, 11/01/2010 - 16:09 | 691504 Chappaquiddick
Chappaquiddick's picture

Thanks Guys!

 

I wonder where exactly this thing will correct up to??

It must be the end of JPM - and exactly how is Greenspan et al going to explain why there's no gold in Fort Knox??

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 01:35 | 682554 slvrizgold
slvrizgold's picture

Its a lot more than just an insurance policy.  It's 100% pure unadulterated MONEY.   Undervalued "currency" if you will.

One point the author missed...   He wrote about central bank not being buyers of silver.  I think the more RELEVANT point is that central banksters hold no silver therefore they can never be a SELLER of silver!    Think about that for a minute.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 01:46 | 682570 pmn
pmn's picture

Hey Miguel, It may come as a shock to you but not everybody on the planet lives in the USA

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 20:37 | 682012 Spalding_Smailes
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Wells Fargo & Co., conceding that some foreclosure affidavits “did not strictly adhere to the required procedures,” said it will file supplemental statements to courts in about 55,000 proceedings.

The bank, which has proceeded with home seizures while rivals including Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. delayed theirs, said today in a statement that it found some lapses during a review of its processes. The bank will begin filings in 23 states immediately and aims to complete them by mid-November, subject to local laws, according to the statement.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-27/wells-fargo-finds-foreclosure-l...

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 23:39 | 682372 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for 55,000 indictments for perjury.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 20:36 | 682016 Chartist
Chartist's picture

Ah, the old silver to gold ratio argument for higher silver prices.....You know, the ole Nat gas to oil ratio argument hasn't worked out too good for Nat gas investors for quite awhile...

A friend of mine is one of the largest traveling buyers of old silver and gold jewelry in the country.  He tells me he'd feel a lot better about gold prices if they'd stop mining so much of it.

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 21:08 | 682088 unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

hmmm...idk, i haven't been seeing that. a bit of the opposite. haven't been reacting the same for a month or so. check out harvey organ blogspot. come back then let me know what you think. i'll look out for you in other posts too. not repitition..but rhyming..

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 21:22 | 682121 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Chartist,

Newsflash, there is a shortage of both Gold and Silver right now, matter of fact, wonder where SPROTT is going to get 20 Milllion+ ounces he needs NOW for his ETF?..............

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 22:25 | 682200 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

A friend of mine is one of the largest traveling buyers of old silver and gold jewelry in the country.  He tells me he'd feel a lot better about gold prices if they'd stop mining so much of it.

I'd feel a lot better about fiat paper if Ben would quit printing so much of it.  Fed money printing overwhelms gold production by orders of magnitude. 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 22:43 | 682259 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Nice try troll; gold production has declined considerably over the past decade.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 20:36 | 682021 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

So far, not much excitement yet.

You would have thought this would have taken off on the news.

Now only if silver could be used in catalytic converters.

Then it would take off like Palladium has....participating in the worldwide orgy of new car buying...

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 20:47 | 682049 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Wrong Chart, Robo.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

Though it is true that there is a surprising lack of activity.  Though when you think about it, it makes sense.  I would imagine that those who are paying close attention know that paper PM vehicles are probably worthless, and so they are buying physical at the retail level.  When the retailers run out of stock, and start making demands for delivery from the exchanges is when things will get interesting.  I'd say November 3rd is probably the key date.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 21:07 | 682086 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

"when" ... "if" ... yup .... as I have said below, there is no apparent shortage for industrial applications. So, when and if may very well become "never".

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 22:56 | 682282 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I didn't use the word "if", you'll notice.

There is no "if" involved here.  And never say "never".

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 22:19 | 682218 rocker
rocker's picture

I own Palladium as well.  I really like Platinum and nickel too.  I do think silver is the best opportunity.

I will soon reveal my best pick.  Hint ?  O.K.  It works well with platinum.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 22:42 | 682256 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

Nickel is a "cheap" play. Go to your bank, withdraw your savings in .05 nickels, you get an instant 20% gain in value with the metal vs frns.

http://www.coinflation.com/coins/1946-2007-Jefferson-Nickel-Value.html

How long at the interest rate you are recieving from your savings acount to make 20%?  Its a win win either way, hyperinflation or deflationary collapse, you have cash and nickel, and no separating pennies.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 23:17 | 682330 DollarMenu
DollarMenu's picture

I keep seeing this thought posted but I can't really see how it pays off.

If you disregard the laws against melting coinage, you probably won't escape

the 'coin fees' exacted by your bank for coins in any sizable amount.

Tell me please,

how does this 'buy nickels' thing result in a 20% profit for you?

Are you able to work a $50K nut to make a $10K income?

Do you do it weekly?

Every other day?

How does this actually work?

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 13:58 | 683860 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

It pays off in the future, this isnt a source of income, but a storage of wealth. Have you ever heard the term, "A part of all I make, is mine to keep"?

There are no "coin fees" if you buy them in reasonable amounts you can carry out of the bank. I buy twenty or thirty rolls at a time, and they dont mind trading out penny rolls either, to search through for pre 82 pennies. I still the same exact amount of currency. It is a slow process but they are worth more than the denomination printed on it. I dont care one bit about trying to melt it or make money in that sense, but if their is inflation or a hyper deflationary collapse, that little bit of currency will hold its value. Its not for everyone but I enjoy it.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 00:17 | 682421 bobert
bobert's picture

20% seems like a nice gain to me.

Whenever I receive those small random checks in the mail (rebates, premium refunds etc.)

I take it to my bank and request nickels.

The old female teller was a bit put out with me at first but has been accomodating.

I've been doing this for a few months now and have a pretty nice inventory of the stuff.

Building copper, silver, and other metals in a variety of ways also.

It's fun!

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 22:41 | 682255 Stormdancer
Stormdancer's picture

Golly!  Wonder of wonders.....a lawsuit gets filed accusing paper silver of being a scam, and you're surprised when the world doesn't scramble to bid up paper?  LOL....typical.

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 20:50 | 682055 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

The next dip (by overnight Sunday into Monday at the latest) will take us sub 23, maybe to 22.50

Buy this dip with both hands. Silver will soon move through 25 and on toward 27. On the chart, there is no resistance until 35 or so. A very, very attractive investment.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 22:47 | 682267 Vernon Wormer
Vernon Wormer's picture

You've been right so far. I'm in.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 05:52 | 682750 iota
iota's picture

Really? I thought it looked like it made the dip on the 22nd? Been undulating upwards since then.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 06:49 | 682774 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

All in already! Mostly with Call warrants with strike 24.50 and an insurance of a (very cheap) put warrant strike 21...

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 20:55 | 682064 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"What if there are several Hunt Brothers out there?"

What if there are millions ;-) 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 22:09 | 682202 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

+1

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 23:41 | 682375 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

One can only imagine the stretch marks on Mamma Hunt.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 00:21 | 682428 bobert
bobert's picture

nm:

Your brevity is impressive.  You are in my opinion most often right on target.

Good post here also!

I agree! What if???

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 07:06 | 682778 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Why thanks Bob.

Just running through the news before I head off to work...here's a good laugh...off topic though;

"A judge had put the execution on hold because she said she was "left to speculate" whether this drug was safe for its intended use."

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/sc-dc-1028-court-execution-20101027,0,6859358.story

ROTFLMAO...sometimes life is stranger than fiction.

SeeYa

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 21:01 | 682075 benb
benb's picture

“….Yes, silver's spike was partly a direct result of hoarding by the Hunt Brothers, but my question to the skeptics is this: what's keeping us from seeing similar stockpiling today? What if there are several Hunt Brothers out there?”

We don’t need no stinking Hunt Brothers hoarding the silver. All we need is for the paper schmucks to wake up to realize the virtual silver is just that... nature will see to the rest.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 21:52 | 682174 rocker
rocker's picture

Do you mean like the hoarding of Copper by the CB's.  Are you suggesting it's only the CB's who control all.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 21:04 | 682078 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Just curious where this "silver shortage" is. The company I work for takes weekly high volume deliveries of silver from multiple sources for industrial applications and not one of the sources has once mentioned the possibility of being short of silver.

Seems like another bunch of logic-gap assumptions that are not in fact true. They are just made to seem true by using incorrect logic and incorrect assumptions.

We buy silver inside China as well and there is no apparent shortage there either.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 21:13 | 682098 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Industrial users have always gotten first priority.  Those who are investing in paper silver vehicles probably have no silver.  The market participants think they have the silver, so they are perfectly willing to sell their real silver for low prices.  Once the warehouse situation is made clear, the real shortage will materialize.  I'd suggest you and your company take possession of as much as you can while it is still easily available.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 21:16 | 682107 benb
benb's picture

“Just curious where this "silver shortage" is…”

At this point there is no shortage only because of the amount of none-existent (un-backed) paper silver being accepted by investors. If all paper silver were required to be backed with physical, the market would be turned on its ear overnight. When confidence in paper drops you’ll see the shortages. (IMO)

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 21:25 | 682128 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

I look at the silver paper as a simple gambling chip, just like a stock certificate ... and both are more than likely only electronic.

Virtually none of the people making this gambling bets wants to take possession of the silver under ANY circumstances. They are just gambling.... and sure if these gamblers started taking possession there would be a shortage. It has not happened yet. Why would they take possession in the future? Is the world ending and they did not get the memo?

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 21:34 | 682144 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

"Is the world ending and they did not get the memo?"

Far too few have your realistic vantage point and the bugs want to see some fireworks.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 22:30 | 682241 Blindweb
Blindweb's picture

Peak oil, impossibility of Western society paying off their debts, the crumbling of the U.S. empire...

Generally I don't even waste my time responding when people are this far behind the curve. 

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 21:40 | 682155 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Exactly.  This is why there has never been a bank run in the history of the Earth.  People just want the paper, they don't care if there is anything to back it up.

Incidently, I just wrote myself a check for $1,000,000,000,000,000,000.  Now I'm the world's first QUINTILLIONAIRE!  Suck on that Bill Gates!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 02:07 | 682594 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

Si Senor Mosley, these are the same people who settle for porn, and never end up getting the real cuchi.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 21:58 | 682188 benb
benb's picture

“I look at the silver paper as a simple gambling chip…”

Yes sir. The knowledgeable guys trading paper metal are in “Jack be nimble” mode. Great if they make some dough on the deal. I just wouldn’t want to be around when the music stops or when we hear that hellacious screeching scratch in the record.

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