This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Guest Post: Some Elliott Waves
MortiES’ Weekend Analysis 22May2010 ~ Bulls Bank Profits, Submitted by Value of Perfect Information
A Wave 4 is described as a Profit-Taking Wave. It is not so much that the Bears are getting stronger as the Bulls are taking profits off the table as they see them eroding. The mini-crash on 6May may not have been real in the eyes of many, but it did technical damage to the market. The emotions of traders are seen in the market as fear and greed have their way. That is also why I said in my post on 6May that the low of that day would be taken out, even though the massive rebound made many think it was just an anomaly. That low (1056) was broken Friday as ES dipped to 1051.25. I think we still have more to go, but I’ll take that new low for now. If that first leg down on 6May didn’t convince traders and investors that there was a significant correction beginning, then the more deliberate decline to the new low on Friday should have convinced them that there is trouble brewing with their new-Bull market. IMO, this is why technical analysis is so great. It is based on repeatable mass psychology, and it is driven by the emotions, fear and greed. Fear and greed are ever-present human emotions that form repeatable patterns in the market, whereas news and world events cannot be anticipated and measured by the lowly traders like myself.
The first chart below is an aggressively projected path for ES. As markets unfold, they reveal more information and counts can change, but for now this is how I am reading this 90 Minute Globex Chart. I am counting it as an ABC correction, making up W4 of the impulsive rally beginning 6Mar2009. I’m sure EWI – the Elliott gods in Atlanta – have this as the beginning of an impulsive move down after the completion of what they would call P2. They might turn out to be right, but that is not the flavor of Kool Aide I like at this time. I find that I have done well in analysis by not throwing the towel in too quickly by calling an end of a trend prematurely. Because this move up from 6Mar can contain a correction like the one I am proposing, I will go with it until proven otherwise by market action. Either way, I am Bearish until we end this wave and reverse into a W5.
For the new subscribers who may not have seen my Weekly chart that has the most Bullish scenario for ES, it is presented here with the newest data.
And then the most important question for short-term traders, what is it going to do Monday? Well, even during Bearish times, there are situations when we have to project rallies. Monday is one such time. I have no idea how ES will get to my target on Monday. I could take all day to form a green candle that makes it to the end of W4 or it could gap up during Globex and head down. We will just have to wait and see. W3 is at its typical, yet minimal, target level. It could also extend and continue on down to another Fib level, but my impression is that we will see a rally to at least the 1100′ish level.
»
- 17928 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
This is an unusually clear tactical application of Fib/Elliot...
Its so awesome to found this technical information that was to amazing in a summer vacation trip. This course will be so interested because its so technical.
Fast Payday Loans
This is a great inspiring article.I am pretty much pleased with your good work.You put really very helpful information.
Car Stereo
Waves Bitches!!!
http://www.hawaiiguidebook.com/files/images/surfer-girl-hawaii.jpg
But is it the Banzai Pipeline?
http://archives.starbulletin.com/2007/02/07/news/artwildx.jpg
well done sir
does this mean ann margaret is NOT coming?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5IKuKx4fwY
I like the 1100 number and the charts look great, thanks for your info. 1101 (38% retracement from May 13th) is what I am looking for and I do think it happens Monday but like you not sure how but the markets will tell us. A good deal of FX pairs (aud/usd, nzd/usd, eur/usd, usd/chf) went well below or above (usd/chf) their flash crash highs or lows this is what makes me think we see the markets much lower before we get anywhere close to a meaningful DEADCAT bounce. You can also look at xau/eur (euro/gold) and this pair too went well above its flash crash high and has now pulled back. The eur/jpy pair did get rejected at the 38% retracement from the May 10th high to May 20th low but we shall see.
One problem I see on your weekly chart is that RSI is highest on wave one and is way down on your third of a third which seems more corrective (WXYXZ).
Indicators have been diverging during this entire rally.
If you say so, but RSI at Oct 08 on your weekly is what my idea of a 3rd of a 3rd etc at that degree of scale looks like to me. Anyhow I am bias because I went short on May 11 at 1160 with my stop at 1221. By my reconning, my labeling (that we are in a wave 3 of a larger wave 1 down) dies at 1173 at small degree and 1221 at larger degree. Your labeling dies at 956 were wave 4 goes below the top of wave one. Thanks for the reply.
Query: If the market is so heavily wired by the algos and the FED then how does one trade on this analysis?
I think the answer would be something like:
Even the FED did not prevent the market from falling last 2 bear markets, they try but they are not in control.
Thx. Good point.
A "Megaphone" Top? Another new high before the bear market resumes?!?
Dude, let the poor thing DIE once and for all, stop the agony!!!!
Well, your blog is really useful for many people I think. You helped me in various situations because I many times I have found the useful information which was really important for me in your site. Reading this your post I have known many new things about the various smart-phones models which I have not known before. It is really great that you share for us such useful stuff. Thanks a lot one more time for the useful information. Thanks for publishing these articles here, your blog will be better than any book for me. Weight Loss doctor
One of the things I have never been able to grasp is that they don't account for currency fluctuation of the indexes home currency in their projections. Maybe it just doesn't matter to them.
I've always felt like I might actually pay attention to random movement on a chart if it actually talked about its value in real terms (in relation to everything around it). Yet, I don't discount the fact that if enough people believe in something then it has a better chance of actually happening.
Just ordered another 200 silver maples. Lucky me that they were having a fire sale! My physical silver doesn't seem concerned with waves.
BIDU to 17 and silver to 70, please.
I believe the thinking is that the waves reflect the flow of the smart money, and the smart money and the smart money thinks about all those things.
It works pretty well, imo, the catch is theres never 100 percent consensus as to an unfolding wave count. The forecasts of the better T/A guys like this one give you the most probable wave counts and alternate ones and then a trader knows what to look for as the week unfolds.
WHAT_ME,
Question, if we're going into a Bear Mkt(again),just curious, why you would buy 200 Mapes?.
If the Mkt does as it did before, the PM's will drop like a rock.
Seemingly a better way to buy more for less is WAIT.
Anyone pls feel free to expound on this, as I am confused on this move........
One can charts what it wants. The truth is nobody knows how this thing will play out, except the TBTF with 100% trading success.
Exactly. TA only works in small markets, where all participants are looking at the same charts. It becomes a type of self-fulfilling prophesy. In the general equity market or in FX, which are now manipulated beyond anything previously imagined, mid to long-term TA is utterly worthless. You might as well stop by a palmreader or Tarot queen. The information provided will be equally valuable.
Prechter et al can take their charts and shove them up their collective arses.
Turd Ferguson = Time on Target. Right on, Bro.
Looks like a sideways market like '04. I've looked for a double dip for seven months now but with the fed on hold till infinity we're going to trade sideways to up imho. It's a trader's market although there is a possible h&s top forming with the unmade right shoulder at 1150. I don't that h&s will follow through just like the one in June '09. Earnings have been too strong for a follow through and that was the same case in June '09.
wave 4? move to new highs on your bullish intrepretations? are you kidding me? with the ponzi out of the bag, who will bid it up to those highs? the government? jpm on behalf of the government? and people are angry...look to see how they (tea party and others) are going after (one by one) and selecting politicians in the usa, and in thailand they are fighting, and greece, and spain, and romania, and.....austerity the reality in europe....bubble in china with the chinese markets down 25% since august of 09......do i need to go on..... let me say it one more time - ARE YOU KIDDING ME???!! oh yeah, and i forgot to add - the technical damage that has already occurred since the top of april 26th will be difficult to just 'turn around' and repair......can i please say it one more time - r u kidding me!
Doggie
I am bearish too, for similar reasons - but you forget that SP500 is NOT an arbiter of value but just a barometer of supply and demand for equity paper. There are going to be some money bombs on perpetual horizon from monetary authorities - if that money doesnt make it into real system it will make it into monetary (equity and bond) system -so I would not bet against a new high (though i too, doubt it given everything else happening). Its just a number. The real wealth is non-market based.
(and why I get those weird label tags is beyond me)
It's a bear tag. They are watching you.
I agree.
LOL. Who thought the market would get this far in Mar2009? I just look at technical analysis and not the economic environment.
Mess with the bull and you get the horns
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/05/22/article-1280469-09B326E1000005DC-201_634x423.jpg
well then tart, i will raise you a bull with 2 bears....the power of the bears is scary - BEWARE!
http://www.lygwela.com/img/coloring-page/full/care-bears-0021.gif
Does BP look like a head and shoulders top here?
When you have Governments and privately owned Central Banks pump money into the market and never let it go on its natural technical course, what does technical analysis matter anymore? It is only good for free market.
Nonsense. That has been the case for over 23 years. TA works no matter what interventions occur since those would be fundamentals and irrelevant to the TA conversation. And what free markets? Show me one. Somewhere. Anywhere. Circuit breakers, broken trades, short selling bans--they stop nothing.
One thing there is very little discussion of is that by 1928, there were mutual funds of mutual funds which made the crash of 1929 that much worse. Now we have ETF's which are essentially the same thing, some created with swaps and other derivatives, others reflecting indices of stocks. Basically this makes the mutual funds of mutual funds problem look small since there is much more leverage involved now in the market. The double and triple leveraged funds have some of the highest volume on a daily basis.
This will not end well. S&P 300, bitches.
Agree on the free market
I totally agree. EW traces the reactions and psychology of the market regardless of any intervention. So long as the herd reacts to the manipulation, you have an EW structure forming. As the report stipulates, so long as there are human emotions involved, namely fear and greed, you'll be able to predict some behavior. Fibonacci, just like nature, follows these natural principles because they are simply the most efficient paths.
TA has been working for me in spite of the manipulations that are probably going on.
1 tick below the Feb 2010 low locks in a 3 wave move from the bottom of March 2000 and sets up the crash to come. Of course they won't give it to us on this down leg, it ain't ever that easy. What ever negatively effects the most people is what is going to happen, same as it ever was. Maybe this is the head and shoulders that works this time?
I know what you are saying, but I can't go as far as to say that a top is locked in. I see other scenarios. But you might well be right.
Oops, typo. 3 waves off the bottom from March 2009, not 2000.
I'm looking at the triple broadening top senario by Tony Cherniawski (thepracticalinvestor) on youtube that has real merit and least worth a look.Tony has been known to jump the gun and overreact sometimes but he is a fine analyst. May 6 Flash crash was whiplash from top 1, past week is picture perfect play of Top 2 and Top 3 is, well, frightning. By the looks of things Tony's Top number 3 should play out over the next 2 months and could make this the summer from hell.
I'll look at it. My views are my views, and I don't look at the views of others very much. My motto is "always original, sometimes right!"
Wave 4? It is obvious the bear market rally from Mar 09 has done its job on most of the commenters here. I'm with doggis and Repo 105. Those who actually believe the PPT or anyone else can stop a global market crash is delusional or a bear that got clubbed during the rally and has given in. Go ahead and buy the dips...enjoy your foodstamps and cardboard huts.
I'm in a Bearish mode right now as a daytrader.
Granted, anything can happen with respect to E-wave counts in real-time, however in this case I do not agree with the wave count on the weekly chart. The wave structure, according to EWI, is simply 5 waves up in a bear market bounce (off the March 666 low) to complete a 0.618 retrace of the larger primary wave 1 down. This retracement completes primary wave 2 up, and primary wave 3 down is now in progress.
Agreed. The slope of hope is over.
I believe that slope will be over, but I don't want to be premature.
I hear what you are saying. If I make this a Daily chart, it would agree with you that this is a completed 5 wave impulsive move. The Weekly chart gets a different count because of the Elliott oscillator that is used and the Fibonacci relationships. From a day-trader's perspective, both views have us in a corrective/Bearish mode right now. I will change my opinion when the market tells me to. Remember though, if ES makes a new high on this rally, then the Weekly count was correct.
I am new to this forum, but have been reading it for quite a while. Just wanted to say thanks to the posters and the stories...Also, thanks for the charts.
I'm new too! And you are welcome.
Assuming you count 5 waves down from Oct 2007 at primary degree to a bottom in Mar 2009, your projected 5 wave count from the bottom implies a super bullish (multi-year, perhaps decade long) bull market at cycle degree. A "five" to a "five" produces a bottom (or top) and indicates a reversal at the larger degree of trend. Also, your wave iii of 3 of circle wave 3 does not look the least bit motive, but corrective in form. Have you applied standard Elliott Wave guidelines to your analysis? Not sure what you have done here exactly other than slap on some labels and call it Elliott Wave.
Agreed. This analysis doesn't pass the various Elliott Wave rules tests. That said, someone could trade it and get lucky and have the market move in their direction nonetheless. As a wise man once said, "I'd rather be lucky than good".
Actually, this count was generated by GET software with the Elliott Count being localized at the 6Mar2009 low. I localize the count when GET is counting the present wave as a W4, but with an extremely low probability of producing a successful W5. I override the GET settings when I don't agree with the count. I didn't get very detailed with the fractals of this count, since that is not my point here. I accepted AdvancedGET's count for the subwaves. I let GET "slap" the count on with its algorithms. I treat a weekly chart the same as I do a 1 minute chart. I was fooled by the 6Mar2009 low, and thought the rally was a W4. On all time-frames, a sharp impulsive move often does not have a typical W4, and this was the case here. My primary projection last July was that ES would retrace 50-62% of the correction down from Oct2007. That is a typical correction for a completed impulsive wave. Beyond that, I am not making any longer-term projections. I am a day-trader, and am most interested in what the market will do tomorrow. I like to keep an eye on the big-picture though for context. If you review my historical posts, you will see that my methods have been pretty accurate. I certainly don't claim to possess the Holy Grail of trading though. I'll let my record speak for my methods. To an Elliott purist, I can be considered a heretic at times. But I'm not interested in political correctness, but rather being on the right side of the market - whatever that takes.
My track record is right there on the front page:
http://www.bostonwealth.net/
Hey, if you are successful, you are successful.
But, what you linked to isn't a "track record", it's a bunch of posts where you have some historical information regarding your wave count at various points.
A "track record" is something like this:
200 trades recommended: 130 winners, 70 losers, average winner size 10 ES points, average loser size 9 ES points. Average 20 ES points "at-risk" per trade (3% of total trading capital).
That's at a minimum of what a "track record" is. From there, I can figure out your method's expectancy and risk-adjusted returns. As a trader, those are numbers I care about.
I was asked a question today about how to trade my charts and projections. That is the million dollar question! I still have a really hard time trading even my most accurate calls. People who have never traded may not understand, but those of us who put our money on the line know what I’m talking about. I have always said that analysis is much easier than trading! My charts and projections are not meant to be the Holy Grail of trading. There is none! They are meant to give you an edge to your trading. Don’t think that there are traders here today who are tripling their accounts every day. There aren’t! My goal is to be green every day. I take only what I consider to be the highest probability setups, and I make the market come to me. I don’t announce my trades, as a rule, because I can’t take the time to manage them for the site. I have a full-time practice, and I often can’t participate as much as I’d like. We have some outstanding traders here though whose trade setups are great. You’ll learn who they are very fast. If I were sitting in front of the screen all day long and giving blow-by-blow analysis with managed trades, you would be paying a lot more than $100 a month! This is not a place to shadow-trade me, but rather to develop your own trading skills. If you haven’t already looked at the classroom lessons, I would strongly advise you to do so.
Sorry, man, but that smacks of dodging the question of your track record. As I said, a track record tells me wins, losses, size of wins, size of losses and how much risk it took to get there.
I'll put it this way. Any good trader knows that data about his trades. Therefore, if you are a good trader, you know those statistics. If those statistics showed your trading in a good light, you would post them. Since you don't post them, either you don't know them or they don't show your trading in a good light. Either way, that just makes you a bad trader.
Furthermore, how would you know what set-ups have the "highest probability" if you don't keep track of the probabilities of your trades?
But, you do get people to pay you $100/month for your service, so you got that going for you, which is nice.
This looks completely perfect. All these tinny details are produced with lot of background knowledge. I like it a whole lot. This was a helpful post and I feel it’s rather straightforward to see from the other comments at the same time that this post is well written and useful. Embroidery Greensboro
Fair enough, but I would present the disclaimer up front to prevent purists from holding you accountable to Elliott Wave guidelines. Your methods are a derivation of EW, but they are not truly an Elliott Wave analysis. Secondly, your software is missing very important nuances of structure that can be misleading. Thank you for the clarifications and good luck trading.
Elliott Wave Theory: (n.) Unfalsifiable, arbitrary, and subjective technical market theory; ambiguous except in hindsight; static analysis of a dynamic system; profitable only for those marketing/explaining the theory to hapless, credulous traders and those fading said traders.
+100!
I posted a real time trade here at ZH last Sunday night shorting Gold at $1242 precisely at 11PM CST. It's here for the world to see. I used EW and Fibo price and time relationships. My risk was $2.20, my reward so far is $65. You guys look at EW the wrong way. It can be used skillfully to determine the best probabilities to take trades and to know exactly when you are wrong. Nothing can predict the future, but EW lets you determine what the risk of a trade is. Most successful traders focus 90% of their efforts determining risk, the rewards take care of themselves. EW is the only way I know how to subjectively determine risk without trying to impose your will on the market. If there is another method out there that can do that I haven't heard of it.
Some time ago I think this same guy posted a chart with the next day laid out in an abc prediction with the likely zones that each of the 3 waves would reach. I then referred to the chart the next morning, and lo and behold the days action produced the abc waves damn near just like drawn on the chart. The top one went to the uppermost resistance line but he noted on the chart that that could very well happen.
All 3 waves down, up and back down, were in the proportions depicted. I was impressed because considering all the variations a truly random or rigged market that could have occured, the accuracy was unlikely a random fluke.
I would subscribe, but cant afford to presently. I think its not the holy grail because like the weather, it must predict in terms of coditions and probabilities, but it gives a very good frame of reference to work from and with decent trading skills and money management, it could be a great tool.
Naturally, Im sure that there will be days that the market action contradicts the predicted wave count scenario, but a smart trader could then see the count was off, the trade is going off course, and simply bail. Then just let the market action clarify the likely wave count, and try again the next day or whatever. The days where you catch those waves and ride them up and down with reasonable accuracy will gain more than the off day lost.
You can say what you want about Elliott Waves...
We accurately forecasted 50 ES (E-mini) points of market action last week:
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2010/05/23/morties-track-record-week-of-17may2010/
The March 2009 lows won't hold.
Updated DOW daily and weekly charts:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
Thanks for taking the time to share this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful for me desentupidora
Pretty insightful post. Never thought that it was this simple after all. I had spent a good deal of my time looking for someone to explain this subject clearly and you?re the only one that ever did that. Kudos to you! Keep it up Seo Agentur
Thanks for taking the time to share this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain pass4sure mcts expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful for me Thanks for taking the time to share this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful for me Thanks for taking the time to share this, I feel pass4sure mcp strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful for me Thanks for taking the time to share this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful for me Thanks for taking the time to share this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind pass4sure mcpd updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful for me Thanks for taking the time to share this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more pass4sure crm on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful for me
This is a good piece of writing mate for this particular topic. I was wondering if I could use this write-up on my website, I will link it back to your website though. If this is a problem please let me know and I will take it down right away<a href="http://www.oneims.com/Web-Design">chicago web design</a>
You are fantastic as your work and I really think that this is a good topic to share deliver flowers to france & send mothers day flowers Netherlands.
The said post here is very informative. I am impressed as to the ways in which the author delivered the message to us readers. I am curious as to the details and have read and got my answers to my query. It is nice to know that this one here really exist. I would love to track your future posts. Embroidery Greensboro
Well, your blog is really useful for many people I think. You helped me in various situations because I many times I have found the useful information which was really important for me in your site. Reading this your post I have known many new things about the various smart-phones models which I have not known before. It is really great that you share for us such useful stuff. Thanks a lot one more time for the useful information. Thanks for publishing these articles here, your blog will be better than any book for me Gift Hampers
I visited this page first time and found it Very Good Job of acknowledgment and a marvelous source of info.........Thanks Admin!
http://www.reverse-phone-look-up.net
http://www.reverse-phone-look-up.net/phone-lookup
Windows 7 Serial Key are for you now!Windows 7 key store is authorized reseller for the software vendors mentioned by Microsoft.We are committed to providing authentic software such as windows 7 ultimate key and office 2010 professional plus key to prevent our software users.All of our softwares are free shipping! Order windows 7 and all windows product key Only in 24 Hours delivery with great discount promotion and best service.
we also provide:office 2007 serial | server 2003 trial key | windows vista product key | office professional plus 2007 product key |
Its one of the good platform for awareness of people. Keep sharing such stuff in the future too. xbox 360 slim
I found
lots of interesting information here. The post was professionally written and
I feel like the author has extensive knowledge in the subject. Keep it that
way
coachingmasters
This is very good blog and I also show you some imformation through this .
Austin SEO http://www.mindboxseo.com