Guest Post: The Sound Of One Hand Clapping - What Deflationists May Be Missing

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Thu, 10/08/2009 - 11:43 | 92843 nhsadika
nhsadika's picture

I believe the same.  The housing market is the lynchpin of this game, keeping prices up somehow and doing a massive transfer in the dark via asset purchases and cheap money.

What that says to me is STAY FAR away from Wall St - don't invest in banks, don't short the Fed.

 

What that also says to me is the MANIA won't easily jump the shark to the real world.  If you're a bear stay on Main St.

 

Long Fed, Short Main.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:08 | 92890 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

There is no dark conspiracy in the housing market - delinquencies are growing, you can look at any report - Fannie's monthly summary, private label remittance reports, etc.

These losses have not been "recognized" (i.e. houses liquidated) because of the government-imposed foreclosure moratoriums and the HAMP program.

Pretty soon these REOs will hit the market, they are already starting to.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 11:47 | 92846 Project Mayhem
Project Mayhem's picture

Chris Martenson is win.  So is Dada for that matter.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 11:50 | 92851 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What is the value of evidence if it goes unseen or unacknowledged ?

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 14:05 | 93112 defender
defender's picture

priceless if you act on it when no one else will.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 15:20 | 93260 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

No.  Being right at the wrong time is the same thing as being wrong.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 11:52 | 92854 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Seems that it shows up in the USD $ taking a dive and gold breaking out to all time highs and skying, both of which is happening.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 11:52 | 92855 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Interesting - couldn't the Fed then start to use 'selective' application of honest accounting as a knob to 'destroy' money in a controlled manner? If inflation starts up, just start leaking money back into the black hole...

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 14:57 | 93223 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yeah why not.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:33 | 93489 Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

The problem is that foreign countries smell blood in the water.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 11:55 | 92861 bruce wayne
bruce wayne's picture

Contracts for commodities are jumping through the roof though.  If we have a prolonged period of shrinking goods and services, these commodities will not need to be used but there is incentive to mine, drill, harvest, etc.; in general pull out of the ground.  At some point these commodities need to hit the market and there will be no way to keep prices up at that point.  Financial assets are skyrocketing in value because they are the only assets that have liquidity at the moment.  When this liquidity ends, i.e. when these goods are not a paper profit but a physical holding that cannot be stored somewhere the shell game must come to an end.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 11:56 | 92864 Mos
Mos's picture

Any chance they, the Fed, pull this off and avoid a total financial and social collapse of the US?  Seems to be working so far other than the dollar sinking, things getting worse for main street, and growing populist outrage.  If they can somehow control those three issues they may have a chance although I think the American people are starting to wise up to what is going on and I see a lot of incumbents getting voted out in 2010. Not to mention black swans that are likely to occur either domestically or internationally that the Fed won't be able to control.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:36 | 92945 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

No chance, and it has nothing to do with incumbents, democrats or republicans. It has to do with the fact that the path we are on is not sustainable. Infinite growth is not sustainable in a finite world. Did you not read the article?

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 15:05 | 93237 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Actually in the article Chris said that he expects inflation, which means exponential monetary creation to continue. It seems it is you that should re-read the article. Theoretically there is no need for the system to crash just because more money is required to pay off interests on existing loans. Just keep on adding zeroes, no biggie! Just add them slowly so the frogs don't jump out of the pot.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 13:23 | 93030 Noir
Noir's picture

Your icon cracks me up everytime I see it :-)

Yes, I'm wondering what will be the Black Swan for this situation. Some European nation goes under? Or is it gonna be the stonewall by the BRIC nations.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:01 | 92868 Daedal
Daedal's picture

Dadaism, not to be confused with Daedal-ism.

Great post. I'd like to see if Mike Shedlock has anything to add.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:21 | 92918 Project Mayhem
Project Mayhem's picture

Mish would say go long the failbuck -- and there is no systemic corruption or collusion, only 'incompetence'

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 13:01 | 92995 pinkboxtrader
pinkboxtrader's picture

lol failbuck

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 13:33 | 93043 geopol
geopol's picture

Ripley's,

 

mish the only living brain donor..

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 13:42 | 93057 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

But they are about to finally get it figured out. This time it will be different?

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:00 | 92871 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Off topic, however can anyone explain why the bid-to-cover of 6.29 was so high for the latest tbills auctioned?

Why is there so much demand from the primary dealers for 16 day paper?

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2009/R_20...

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:02 | 92874 koaj
koaj's picture

prices on things we dont need like houses and cars and boats are coming in yet prices on goods we need like oil and food are going up

fantastic. FTW American Middle class

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:19 | 92914 RatherBFlying
RatherBFlying's picture

... except we're not. I'm buying gasoline cheaper than I did the entire past year, rents are going down, natural gas to heat my house is down, food in the grocery is down in price, eating out is cheaper (at least in my neck of the woods.)

The only part of Chris's analysis I see above is that the Fed isn't buying the worthless loans from the Banks... they are taking them on to their books, but they can exchange them back anytime they want. The Banks know that and that's why they aren't restarting lending. These aren't really "reserves" in the traditional sense. They are window-dressing that allows the FDIC to not execute their legally mandated duty to liquidate insolvent banks, which would wipe out equity and bond holders like the Pension Funds.

 

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 13:21 | 93028 lovejoy
lovejoy's picture

One of the best explanations I have seen for those large bank reserves. Thus if real estate tanks more, the FED may decide that it longer wants to hold the collateral. I would think that the FED steps in before FDIC if any goes wrong. I can also see why the FED is against any audit. I don't think think they are worried who they money to -- they gave money to everyone. They don't want the public to know that FED that generally only takes AAA collateral has taken junk collateral. That would destroy the FED. CAPUT.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:03 | 92877 perfectlyGoodWh...
perfectlyGoodWhiteBoy's picture

I thought we were a credit economy, not a money economy.  Does MZM include credit?

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 15:32 | 93283 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Astute.  It appears the author conflates money and credit.

In a fractional reserve system, what is being loaned?  Capital?  Money?  Credit?  If capital starts off being real store-of-value money capital, then is loaned out at 10:1 in a fractional reserve system, what exactly are you borrowing?  This is not merely a semantic question, because when the loan defaults, exactly what has been lost?  1/10 of the capital?  Mathematically, how can you measure capital destruction in a fractional reserve system?  I've never seen this discussed anywhere, all discussions conflate money and credit.  Is money capital?  Is fiat money capital?  Is borrowed capital, in a fractional-reserve system even capital at all?

I think we would all agree that capital cannot be printed, yet that is what Bernanke is trying to do.  The whole inflation/deflation debate is a red herring.  You cannot understand the impact of printing trillions of thingies and pouring them into a hole that is tens of trillions of thingies deep and try to figure out what will happen.  It makes no sense at all, because what were the thingies that were lost into the hole?  What are the thingies that are being printed?

Fractional-reserve credit / lending affects price.  If we hadn't been loaning out "credit" at 10:1, would house prices have gone as high as they did?  Of course not. 

So when house prices fall, what is lost?  If we can merely print up replacement tokens, what are the tokens worth?  Why don't we print up enough to make everyone millionares?

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:36 | 93493 Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

Don't forget the hole that is tens of trillions of thingies deep is still getting bigger as we speak.

 

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 20:36 | 93657 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

If we can't even define what the thingies are, why does the size of the hole matter?  People say Bernanke can't print it up fast enough to fill the hole; they say that like the thingies are more than mere tokens, like they have value.  If they have value, how can Bernanke just print them up?  And if he can just print them up and they ARE valuable, why doesn't he just print up a shitload for everyone and then we all quit work?  If they DON'T have value, then what is the point of printing them, and who cares how many we print, or how many have fallen into the hole?

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 15:50 | 94469 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Best lines ever... I'm stealing this thank you!

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:04 | 92878 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If you guys are relying on "Limits to Growth," you are going to look very, very foolish. The big story in the 21st century will be the decline in the human population, not because we've reached some sort of resource "wall," but because people are not having children.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:51 | 92971 economicmorphine
economicmorphine's picture

That's only true in the west.  If one looks at global population, it is going parabolic.  If we have a population decline it will be because we outproduce the world's ability to sustain that population, resulting in a massive die off the likes of which we've never seen.  The present environment suggests a genocide the likes of which we've never seen may occur as well.  I hope your comment was satire.  It's incredibly naive if it isn't.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 13:57 | 93087 Galois
Galois's picture

I'm currently reading this book concerning the sustainability of the world population (you may download it for free):

http://www.earth-policy.org/index.php?/books/pb4

It will probably get very ugly in a few years :-( Especially if you read about the problems the big powers India and China will be facing and consider how desperate they might become. 

 

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 14:04 | 93110 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Which is why he cited Malthus in the previous article. The Malthusian end is not pretty, and that is an understatement of the most diabolical kind.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 14:25 | 93103 snorkeler
snorkeler's picture

We hit the "resource wall" quite a while ago. I would estimate 50 to 60 years ago.

Now we are beginning to realize what the true cost of feeding and housing this planet is going to be.

It is unaffordable, especially in light of what the climate change issues are going to cost.

 

As Bob says a "Malthusian" scenario.  The resource wars (no longer disgused by political bs as has been the case to date) begin very soon.

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 04:38 | 93893 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

There is a lot of contrivance on the whole Malthusian resource shortage perspective. For example, Haiti was a variegated agricultural country that was able to feed its population, but than through globalization, transnational agri-business undersold local agriculture, which drove farmers off the land and into work for the transnational corporations. The country became a transnational mono-culture agriculturally. Thus Haitians have been eating mud cakes to ward off starvation. This is contrived Malthusian, which doesn't occur if Haiti is left to its agricultural history. So, the same is true for globalization in other countries.

Resource wars are nothing but self-fulfilling prophecy; mainly because those prophesizing are the ones who are going to start the wars. Consider refocus of finances into renewable energies and expending there instead of financing 18th, 19th and 20th century endeavors and the resource shortages are addressed by new paradigms rather than the same tried and failed course of most of history.

Malthusian situations arise as a direct result of empire building. Countries attending to their local populations can stave off mass starvation and, by the way, may also be the way to save the planet.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:09 | 92894 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Pretending debt does not exist? Congress is free to pretend they are not broke is the solution to all our problems? Inflation with huge tax increases, is that the misery index thingy? So the debtor is "off the hook" yet the "new" debt the Fed is sending the US Treasury DOES have to be repaid? The American people, not to mention most taxpayers of the world, are not going to swallow that one.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:09 | 92896 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

Yes. Pretending the losses aren't there is a sure fire solution. How can it possibly fail?

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:13 | 92903 phaesed
phaesed's picture

Excellent article and perhaps the best analysis I have read from anyone in the present crisis on the actual nature of the problem.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:34 | 92940 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Except for the indefinite part, nothing works indefinitely.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:14 | 92907 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

So what will the impact be on the Fed when Ron Paul's bill gets passed and GAO finally audits them? I'm not sure "extend and pretend" will be able to continue past that point.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 15:28 | 93275 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I truly believe that the President will not sign any such bill. The best scenario (for the banksters) will be to have the bill arrive on his desk just before some holiday adjournment and exercise a nice little pocket veto, thereby having it look like he was not actually against it, just sort of a "hey, Congress didn't get it to me in time to sign - what could I do?"

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:20 | 92919 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Great Post.

During the initial phase of the Great Depression there was no deflation. Then it started to take off (-12%-15%). Unemployment soared. Then in Oct 1933, Roosevelt devalued the dollar by 60%. This caused unemployment to fall, but created 5%+ consumer price inflation while assets were decreasing in value. Who isn't to say that the FED isn't going down the same path (get rid of the debt by allowing asset prices to fall, while they devalue the dollar). It's the double edged sword on how to get rid of debt quickly. But it also rapidly lowers the standard of living.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:21 | 92920 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Max Ernst!

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:23 | 92924 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

We have become an immature society by ignoring the consequences of our actions, instead we have chosen to cover them up and continue with our bad behavior.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:35 | 92941 HEHEHE
HEHEHE's picture

Precisely what has happened.  Bernanke has created a bubble in trader bonuses.  You pay me a salary and tell me I don't have to pay my rent and utilities until 10 year from now and I'll look like Warren Buffet in the short term too.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:40 | 92959 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Chaos at Cobo: Detroiters turn out for federal help
Charlie LeDuff, George Hunter and Santiago Esparza / The Detroit News

Detroit -- Thousands hoping to get applications for federal help on rent and utility bills turned Cobo Center into a chaotic scene today.
They came by foot, wheelchair, bicycle and car. About six left by ambulance after tensions rose and people were trampled, according to a paramedic on the scene. One unfortunate soul got his car booted.
Detroiters were trying to pick up 5,000 federal assistance applications from the city at Cobo because Detroit received nearly $15.2 million in federal dollars under the Homeless Prevention and Rapid Re-Housing Program, which is for temporary financial assistance and housing services to individuals and families who are homeless, or who would be homeless without this help.
People in wheelchairs and others using canes were being leaned on by people too weak to stand. Emergency medical technicians on the scene said they treated applicants who were injured during the rush to get inside the venue.
That's what happens when a town full of broke people gets a whiff of free money, said Walter Williams, 51, who came before the sun to get an application and a shot at some federal assistance.
"This morning, I seen the curtain pulled back on the misery," he said. "People fighting over a line. People threatening to shoot each other. Is this what we've come to?"
Outside Cobo on Wednesday, some people reportedly were going through the crowd, snatching the necessary applications from those who'd already obtained them. There also was a constant din of screams from people insisting they be let inside.
LaTanya Williams, a 32-year-old Detroiter, quickly filled out her form because "people are stealing them."
"I am hoping to get any help that they will give me," she said. "Everybody needs help."
By early morning, the applications had run dry. But some hustlers got the bright idea to photocopy the original and sell the copies for $20 a pop. They were doing a brisk business. The desperate are easy prey. The white original applications stated clearly on the bottom: "Do not duplicate -- Must Submit Original Application."
By late morning, however, volunteers from the City of Detroit Planning and Development Department were handing out yellow photocopies themselves.
"I'm not even sure the government will accept those applications," said Pam Johnson, a volunteer. "But it's almost like they had to pacify people. There was almost a riot. I mean, they had to call out the gang squad. I saw an elderly woman almost get trampled to death."
John Paul, a 25-year-old Detroiter, said the crowd and chaos illustrates the need people have for help.
"We need it," he said of the money. "Whatever they have for me is great."
Detroit Police 2nd Deputy Chief John Roach said 150 officers on the scene got a handle on the situation. "There was some pushing and shoving, and some people have fainted," Roach said. "Given the fact that we have 15,000 people down there, I'm surprised things have been as orderly as they are."
It was difficult to estimate the crowd because lines snaked all through the convention center and outside along the building and down the parking ramp along Cobo Arena to the river. One police officer estimated the crowd at 50,000.
More than 25,000 applications were snapped up in less than three hours Tuesday at Neighborhood City Halls. That day, Karen Dumas, a spokeswoman for Mayor Dave Bing, said some people mistakenly believed they would receive cash on the spot.
"That is totally untrue," she said. "There is a process."
Response had been so great that Detroit police and fire officials considered shutting down the process because of the volume of people.
Kelley Turcotte, a Detroit dishwasher, was near the end of the line around 10:30 a.m. today. The 27-year-old just had a son and said he is only squeaking by on his bills.
"I hope the government sees this and realizes the city needs a lot more help than they are giving," Turcotte said.
Luis Irizarry, 35, drove from Flint for the chance he could get assistance. He later found out only Detroit residents are eligible. He said it was a shock to see this many people in need.
"This is ridiculous," Irizarry said about the thousands who showed up.
Tony Johnson came at 5 a.m. Johnson has not found a job in three years.
"If I could win the mega lottery, I'd be tighty-iddy. I wouldn't be here," Johnson said. "But there's no peace 'cause there ain't no jobs. Everybody's looking for the freebie, the hand-out. They don't count me as unemployed 'cause I ain't drawing a check. It's like I don't even exist. But I do. Look around. There's thousands ... millions of us."
Dan McNamara, president of the Detroit Firefighters Association Local 344, was looking down from his office window across from Cobo.
"This absolutely is representative of the struggling middle class in America," he said. "We've been betrayed by the government, Realtors and those who've got. The promise has been broken."

Detroit News Staff Writer Christine MacDonald contributed to this report.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 13:44 | 93060 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

thank you sharing that stiff dose of reality.

a couple quotes deserve another shot:

"This morning, I seen the curtain pulled back on the misery," he said. "People fighting over a line. People threatening to shoot each other. Is this what we've come to?"

"But there's no peace 'cause there ain't no jobs. Everybody's looking for the freebie, the hand-out. They don't count me as unemployed 'cause I ain't drawing a check. It's like I don't even exist. But I do. Look around. There's thousands ... millions of us."

"We've been betrayed by the government, Realtors and those who've got. The promise has been broken."

this is your pain america.
this is your burning hand.
it's right here.
don't deal it with the way those dead people do.
we are god's unwanted children, so be it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuiKJ0rRTAo

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 20:30 | 93655 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Should have told people Obama was giving out "free" money at the G20 in Pittsburgh. The cops there would have had 30-40K more upset people to deal with. Just a thought.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:44 | 92964 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"If nobody recognizes a defaulted debt on their balance sheet, does it exist?"

"...what prevents the authorities from simply storing them (toxic debts) out of sight in perpetuity? ... I am now wondering if they cannot keep this up indefinitely."

Lets say your rich in the pre-internet days, and you and your wife are on a cruise round the world. During this time your kid (home alone) crashed your sports car and destroyed your garage (it happens, ask Ferris) -- but has rigged the "spy-cam" to show you an old looping video image.

So, you believe with utter confidence that your sports car and garage still exist. Can your son keep this up indefinitely?

Nope. One day you will return and the SWHTF.

Likewise, the government cannot "keep this up indefinitely" -- eventually the money the banks are holding in their "excess reserves" WILL come out into the real world. Eventually that big shadow inventory of houses WILL be sold at auction (if not by the banks, then by the local gov'ts when the prop tax defaults happen).

Eventually, boomers WILL want (need) to sell their stocks and bonds.

Indefinitely is a long time.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 20:47 | 93662 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If the FED can create money out of thin air, with the push of a few keys on the magic FED computer. Why can't the FED make bad debt's disappear into thin air, with the few clicks of the delete button? No one knows what they are up to. No real authorities to answer to.

If I had a magic money computer, I could create some electronic cash. Buy all my friends and families mortgages, credit card debts, car loans, etc... from whomever was holding the notes. Then I could rip up the notes. I would give my friends and family the best Christmas gift of all time, a debt free life. Sure the magic money I created would make all the other money worth a little less, but think how much my friends and family would thank me for erasing all their debts.

Did I get the gist of the article? As I stare at a 10 trillion dollar Zimbabwe bank note above my desk, it's beginning to look alot like Christmas.

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