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Guest Post: Suicide is Painless

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted bu Jim Quinn of the Burning Platform

Suicide is Painless


File:The Mash Suicide Is Painless single cover.jpg

Everyone has watched one of the best TV series of all-time – M*A*S*H.
You also know the tune that played during the opening credits as
helicopters delivered wounded soldiers to the 4077 Mobile Army Surgical
Unit. Most people have never heard the lyrics that go with the music.
The song is Suicide is Painless and the lyrics were sung during the  M*A*S*H  Movie.
As I watched the movie a few weeks ago, the lyrics struck home. Our
country has been slowly committing suicide for the last 40 years. The
movie and TV series were set during the Korean War. It is fitting that
military spending is one of the major causes of our suicide as a nation.
On an inflation adjusted basis, the US has doubled spending on Defense
since 1962. It is on course to rise another 20% in the next four years.
Dwight D. Eisenhower warned us about the military industrial complex in

“In the councils of government, we must guard against the
acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the
military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of
misplaced power exists and will persist.”

The fact that the US currently spends 7 times as much on Defense as
the next nearest country is proof that the military industrial complex
has gained unwarranted influence and a disastrous rise of misplaced
power has occurred.

                           U.S. DEFENSE SPENDING


When you critically analyze why we would need to spend 7 times as
much as China on military when there is no country on earth that can
challenge us, the answer can only be OIL. Our own military came to the
following chilling conclusion in their Joint Operating Environment
report, issued earlier this year:

By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely
disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach
nearly 10 MBD. 

A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion
of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict
precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a
shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth
in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown
would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing
states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious
economic impact on both China and India. At best, it would lead to
periods of harsh economic adjustment. To what extent conservation
measures, investments in alternative energy production, and efforts to
expand petroleum production from tar sands and shale would mitigate such
a period of adjustment is difficult to predict. One should not forget
that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that
sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest.


The U.S. military knows we are on the verge of an oil crisis. There
are no new supplies ready to come on line before 2015. The President and
his advisors know that an oil crisis is in our immediate future. We
have military bases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait. We have active
fighting forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan. We have a naval armada of
aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf. Our forces completely encircle
Iran. Is this a coincidence when the countries with the largest oil
reserves in the world are noted?

  1. Saudi Arabia – 262 billion barrels
  2. Iran – 133 billion barrels
  3. Iraq – 112 billion barrels
  4. Kuwait – 97 billion barrels

The war on terror is a cover for access to the hundreds of billions
of barrels of oil in the Middle East. A 10 million barrel per day
shortfall by 2015 would be disastrous for a country that consumes 25% of
all the oil in the world. Our hyper-consumer society is like a drug
addict, dependent on its oil fix. If we are denied oil for even one day,
the withdrawal symptoms would be traumatic and harrowing.

There are 255 million passenger vehicles in the U.S. Our society will
collapse within weeks without a sufficient supply of oil. The average
American’s only concern about oil is when they get a card in the mail
from Jiffy Lube telling them it is time for their 5,000 mile oil change.
They stick a hose in their gas tank and fluid pours out, allowing them
to motor freely around mall dotted suburbia. Within five years they will
be paying over $5 per gallon for this fluid or they will be waiting in
lines for three hours to get 10 gallons of that precious fluid. Peak
cheap oil has been predictable for decades. The Department of Energy was
created 31 years ago. Preparing for peak cheap oil would have required
some pain, sacrifice and forethought. But, suicide is painless.

Visions of Things To Be

Through early morning fog I see
visions of the things to be
the pains that are withheld for me
I realize and I can see…

That suicide is painless
It brings on many changes
and I can take or leave it if I please.

                            Suicide is Painless – M.A.S.H. Movie 

As I peer through the fog and attempt to see visions of things to be,
I see nothing but pain ahead. Anyone who can look at the following
chart and not conclude that there is much pain ahead for this country is
either a Goldman Sachs banker, a Federal Reserve Governor, or a bought
off politician in Washington DC. It is no coincidence that after Richard
Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 and allowed the Federal Reserve to
“manage” our economy that total debt outstanding in the US surged from
$2 trillion to over $50 trillion. GDP has risen by 1,300% since 1971,
while total US debt has risen by 2,600%. Now for the kicker. Real GDP
has only gone up by 292% since 1971. This means that 1,000% of the
increase in GDP was from Federal Reserve created inflation. Over this
same time frame, real wages have declined by 6%, from $318 per week in
1971 to $299 per week today. Inflation has been the American drug of
choice to commit suicide over the last 40 years. It is stealthy,
seemingly painless, and deadly.

File:US debt outstanding by sector.png

Inflation is the “painless” method through which the Federal Reserve
has decided this country will commit suicide. It is like turning on the
car in the garage and letting the carbon monoxide slowly put you to
sleep. The ruling elite are content that the American public is dumbed
down by the government run public schools. They count on the fact that 9
out of 10 Americans do not understand inflation. It is an
insidious scheme of robbing the working middle class and funneling it to
the Wall Street/K Street ruling class. The Federal Reserve has gotten
bolder in the last few years as they realized the public doesn’t
understand or care what they do. Bernanke has relished in the mainstream
media adulation that he saved the world with his printing press in
2008/2009. Even though critical thinkers know for a fact that it was
Federal Reserve policies that created the worldwide financial
conflagration in the first place, the corporate mainstream media and the
Wall Street beneficiaries have been cheerleaders of Easy Al and
Helicopter Ben. These men are traitors. They have purposefully
impoverished senior citizens and the working middle class in order to
enrich their ruling elite masters on Wall Street and in Washington DC.

Ben Bernanke on Wednesday afternoon will announce Quantitative Easing
Part Deux. This is a fancy name for Ben printing $1 trillion out of
thin air, buying US Treasuries and/or more toxic mortgage securities and
artificially lowering interest rates to convince Americans to spend
money they don’t have. Jeremy Grantham, in his recent quarterly letter,
issues a scathing indictment of Bernanke’s methods: 

all of us, unfortunately, there is still a further great disadvantage
attached to the Fed Manipulated Prices. When rates are artificially low, income is moved away from savers, or holders of government and other debt, toward borrowers. Today, this means less income for retirees and near-retirees with conservative portfolios, and more profit opportunities for the financial industry; hedge funds can leverage cheaply and banks can borrow from the government and lend out at higher
prices or even, perish the thought, pay out higher bonuses. This is the
problem: there are more retirees and near retirees now than ever
before, and they tend to consume all of their investment income. With
artificially low rates, their consumption really drops. The offsetting benefits, mainly shown in dramatically recovered financial profits despite low levels of economic activity, flow to a considerable degree to rich individuals with much lower propensities to consume.”

The ruling elite in Washington DC and Wall Street decided that fraud,
misinformation and cooking the books was preferable to the pain of
honesty, orderly bankruptcy, and assets valued at their true worth. Ben
Bernanke ”saved the world” by putting the taxpayer on the hook for $1.5
trillion of toxic mortgage garbage he bought from his masters on Wall
Street. John Hussman describes the decision to choose painless suicide
over choosing painful medicine to cure our disease:

“Over the short run, two policies have been primarily responsible
for successfully kicking the can down the road following the recent
financial crisis. The first was the suppression of fair and accurate
financial disclosure – specifically FASB suspension of mark-to-market
rules – which has allowed financial companies to present balance sheets
that are detached from any need to reflect the actual liquidating value
of their assets. The second was the de facto grant of the government’s
full faith and credit to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities. Now,
since standing behind insolvent debt in order to make it whole is
strictly an act of fiscal policy, one would think that under the
Constitution, it would have been subject to Congressional debate and
democratic process. But the Bernanke Fed evidently views democracy as a
clumsy extravagance, and so, the Fed accumulated $1.5 trillion in the
debt obligations of these insolvent agencies, which effectively forces
the public to make those obligations whole, without any actual need for
public input on the matter.”

The Only Way to Win is Cheat

The only way to win is cheat
And lay it down before I’m beat
and to another give my seat
for that’s the only painless feat.

That suicide is painless
It brings on many changes
and I can take or leave it if I please.

                                             Suicide is Painless – M.A.S.H. Movie 

Federal Reserve has incessantly created new bubbles every time one of
their old bubbles has burst, since the elevation of Alan Greenspan as
Fed Chairman in 1987. The bailout of LTCM convinced Wall Street that
uncle Al would come to the rescue if their gambles endangered the
financial system. Greenspan cheered on the internet revolution and
flooded the system for the fake Y2K crisis. When the internet bubble
burst in 2000 and the 9/11 attack struck in 2001, Greenspan aided and
abetted the greatest bubble in history. He dropped interest rates to
historic lows, encouraged the use of adjustable rate mortgages, didn’t
enforce bank regulations, and pretended that he couldn’t see the bubble
forming. Jeremy Grantham explained the Federal Reserve, Wall Street and K
Street conspiracy to avoid the pain of dealing with our long-term
structural problems in his latest letter: 

prices may often not be susceptible to manipulation. Low interest rates
may not be enough: they may stimulate hedge fund managers to speculate
in stocks, but most ordinary homeowners are not interested in
speculating. To stir up enough speculators to move house prices, we
needed a series of changes, starting with increasing the percentage of
the population that could buy a house. This took ingenuity on two
fronts: overstating income and reducing down payment requirements,
ideally to nil. This took extremely sloppy loan standards and virtually
no data verification. This, in turn,
took a warped incentive program that offered great rewards for quantity
rather than quality, and a corporation overeager, with aggressive
accounting, to book profits immediately.  It also needed a much larger, and therefore new, market
in which to place these low-grade mortgages. This took ingenious new
packages and tranches that made checking the details nearly impossible,
even if one wanted to. It took, critically, the Fed Manipulated Prices
to drive 
rates down. Even more importantly, it needed the global risk premium
for everything to hit world record low levels so that suddenly formerly
staid European, and even Asian, institutions were reaching for risk to
get a few basis points more interest. Such an environment is possible
only if there exists an institution with a truly global reach and a
commitment to drive asset prices up. In the U.S. Fed, under the
Greenspan-Bernanke regime, just such an institution was ready and

On Wednesday Ben Bernanke will inject more poison into the veins of
a once great country. This country, at one time, dealt with its
problems in a realistic manner and was willing to sacrifice, cooperate,
and make hard choices. QE2 will not help our economy or solve any of our

Is It To Be Or Not To Be?

A brave man once requested me
to answer questions that are key
‘is it to be or not to be’
and I replied ‘oh why ask me?’

‘Cause suicide is painless
it brings on many changes
and I can take or leave it if I please.
…and you can do the same thing if you choose.

                                                     Suicide is Painless – M.A.S.H. Movie 

The leaders of this country, with the full support of a zombie like
disinterested distracted electorate, have chosen to ignore and
defer every tough decision regarding energy, spending, entitlements,
deficits, and infrastructure. The Federal Reserve has
allowed politicians to run the National Debt up to $13.6 Trillion by
imposing no limits on the printing of fiat currency backed by nothing
but promises. Based on Obama’s 10 year budget projections, adjusted for
the real impact of Obamacare and extension of Bush tax cuts, the
National Debt will reach $20 trillion in 2015 and $25 trillion by 2019.
This is truly a suicide mission. We will never reach these levels
because the sweet relief of death will overtake our economic system as
the final vestiges of QE2 painlessly bring about the end. 
Grantham warns that Bernanke’s actions on Wednesday are a desperate
last ditch attempt to fend off the pain of reality. It will fail.

“Thus, our current policy of QE2 is merely the last desperate
step of an ineffective plan to stimulate the economy through higher
asset prices regardless of any future costs. Continuing QE2 may be an
original way of redoing the damage done by the old Smoot-Hawley Tariff
hikes of 1930, which helped accelerate a drastic global decline in
trade. We may not even need the efforts of some of our dopier Senators
to recreate a more traditional tariff war. And all of this stems from
the Fed and the failed idea that it can or should interfere with
employment levels by interfering with asset prices.”

The only difference between Dr. Bernanke and Dr. Kevorkian is that
Kevorkian helped the terminally ill commit suicide. Dr. Bernanke and his
colleagues at the Federal Reserve have inflicted suicide on a patient
that was healthy and capable of living many more years. The suicide
concoction of fiat currency, debt, military empire, and delusion has
been painless for those in power, but painful for the working middle
class of this country. Dr. Bernanke fancies himself as an expert on the
Great Depression. He is destined to be remembered as the man who killed
America. Suicide is painless, it brings on many changes.



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Tue, 11/02/2010 - 09:52 | 692938 Wynn
Wynn's picture

First Col. Blake, then Trapper John and Frank Burns. I miss the old days.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:41 | 693092 ATG
ATG's picture

The interesting mass psychology of market tops is that participants become evem more convinced and bullish after the top

ZH friends and foes, the top is in for inflation

Using consistent methodology, it was set in 1980 with 15% real inflation, and 2008 with 13%. Now only 8%, headed downtown

Yes, corn, coffee, wheat and cotton were up 70 - 191% recently, these exceptions proving the downtrend$DJACN$DJAKC$DJAWH$DJACT

The annual rate of change in monetary indicators is collapsing despite talk of QE II[1][id]=BASE&s[1][transformation]=pc1

Money multiplier and velocity are contracting

Gold is targeting -10%, Long Bonds +30%, dollars +49%


This is not the stuff of inflation, but debt default deflation.

As usual, the Fed and other central banks may be well behind free market curves far bigger than they are

Generals fight the last war, and not one man in a million understands deflation

People betting on up instead of down may become broke, humbled and hungry while fat cats short inflation hedges and long bonds and cash get richer

Matthew 7:13 Enter ye in at the strait gate: for wide is the gate, and broad is the way, that leadeth to destruction, and many there be which go in thereat: 14 Because strait is the gate, and narrow is the way, which leadeth unto life, and few there be that find it

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:53 | 693134 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture


Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:10 | 693149 ATG
ATG's picture


You are stupid to use that garbage technical analysis on gold. That is not even real technical analysis. Gold is not overbought. It is in a 30 year oversold condition. The market will punish your ignorance harshly.

ad hominems do not become you Q or enlighten us

Matthew 16:2-3

When evening comes, you say, ‘It will be fair weather, for the sky is red,’ 3 and in the morning, ‘Today it will be stormy, for the sky is red and overcast.’ You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:12 | 693195 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Ignorance becomes you.  Your post was so ignorant it was not even worth taking it apart point by ignorant point.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:14 | 693207 ATG
ATG's picture
by Quinvarius
on Wed, 06/16/2010 - 12:34


Spoken like a man who does not know the definition of inflation.  This time you are going to buy the bottom instead of sell it becasue this time you can predict the crash, right?  The world is not going to conform to your personal definitions or economic bias.  We have massive inflation now.  Inflation is not price changes.  Inflation is an increase in the money supply.  Period.  Insane fears of deflation, like yours, are why we are going to sail directly into hyper inflation.  You want a do over.  Tough luck.  We are on to the next crisis and it has nothing to do with shrinking the money supply.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:24 | 693237 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It is funny that you are so ignorant you think that supports your point.  That is how truly ignorant you are.  Really dude.  I am laughing at you.  You should have listend to me then.  You would have made 60% betting on the food inflation that you wrote off as fluke.

Please.  Tell me you are being sarcastic in your original post.  Then I will apologize.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:49 | 693334 ATG
ATG's picture

Q, listened to you?

Name calling, projecting and posting off the point do not work as a substitute for value

Bought gold stocks and Mexican Gold and Silver Angel Peso coins around $105 and $4 and sold Gold and Silver eagles around $1210 and $25 with Big4, currently up 1597% year to date

Taught Stanford students about the Continental and Greenbacks

And you have been predicting Weimar hyperinflation for how long?

Tripling the Fed Balance sheet or monetary base did not matter because defaulting debts and derivatives dwarf anything the Fed can throw at the American or global economy

Big4 noted coffee, corn, cotton, wheat et al bull markets long ago when they were unpopular

No need to apologize

Might bone up on Leviticus and Irving Fisher re the deleterious effects of usury and debt default deflation before you lose your assets

It took the Yale and Harvard Club Economist four years to figure out why we were not on a plateau of permanent prosperity as he declared in October 1929 days before the bottom fell out



Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:05 | 693394 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I have no idea what you are saying anymore.  You take my side of the argument now but don't say which half of you is sarcastic.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:08 | 693491 ATG
ATG's picture

Never took your side of the bogus argument Q

Highlighted your past bully false insult posts for all to see

Ad hominems not an argument but an embarrassment for the slinger

In three words, what I am saying is Debt default deflation, not QEII monetary inflation, increasingly plain for most to see, if they but look

You have not refuted any points in the original post disagreeing with (monetary) suicide is painless

Massive voter fraud today illustrates exactly how bankrupt the establishment is with their Eric Holder neoCon neoKeynesian 0Care Eric DHS Terrorism posse comitatus teleprompter fantasies

When the bottom falls out, maybe more will see what's going on

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:16 | 693648 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Ignorant.  Your posts refute themselves.  That is why no one is wasting bandwidth ripping you a new one.  Your whole argument is that you choose to ignore what you don't like, while at the same time stating you are ignoring it as if it proves your point.

You need to read some books on economics, son.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 18:49 | 694322 ATG
ATG's picture
Troll put-down artist reputation precedes and haunts you Q Lack of reading comprehension, vocabulary or intelligent material rebuttal speaks volumes: eg by Quinvarius
Sun, 10/31/2010 - 09:45

Everything in that post was completely ignorant.  Please tell me you are being sarcastic.

Sat, 11/06/2010 - 12:08 | 705123 Tursas
Tursas's picture

Q you have it right!

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:39 | 693742 ffart
ffart's picture

Deflation or inflation, the dollar is fucked. But if you're concerned about your gold losing value I'll buy it all off you for a reasonable price say $50/oz.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 18:46 | 694438 ATG
ATG's picture


As posted, gold sold

$50 is the face value of the legal tender one ounce Gold Eagle coin

Would be very surprised to see gold go that low

Right now they are selling at premiums up to $1599, a sucker bet to be sure

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 20:18 | 694670 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Sucker bet? Compared to FRN's?!

Johny Bravo, eat your heart out, there's a new kid in town.

Wed, 11/03/2010 - 12:42 | 696048 ATG
ATG's picture


Ok, you got me laughing GF, goodonya;

Gold fluctuated for many of the last 5000 years, while FRNs in 2010 are worth 2% of what they were in 1913 ninety seven years earlier

What does that have to do with us here now for the rest of our lives?

A few pretend to have a crystal ball that works

The end of the world was advertised many times the last 5000 years

Gold was in yet another mania from $254 in 1999 to $1388 in 2010, echoing $105 in 1974 to 887 in 1980 and $20 in 1919 to $42.22 in 1973

The mean gold price for the last two centuries was $666 and prices can return to their mean

If they go parabolic like now, they can go below the mean

Now people who plunged closer to the top are waking up, some of them anyway

Soros said gold was in a bubble when he bought

Will he say it is undervalued when he sells?

How about John Paulson who just took hits on banks, or the Central Bankers?

Gold fluctuated many times in the last 5000 years, 1492 Conquistadores the most noteworthy example, but Napoleanic Wars, CA OZ discoveries, African Yukon gold, World War II and Vietnam War too, with Central Banks often selling when they should be buying and vice versa

Napolean bragged that he paid brandy, food and gold (loaned from the Rothschild Bank for an army that marches on its stomach)

Air America allegedly shipped gold for drugs, personnel and materiel during Vietnam

Gold may be right on target for this latest peak in 1998 dollars

Human nature does not easily change

Most plunge near the top in greed and sell at the bottom in fear

In the 1980 peak, I saw people excitedly buy gold at premiums over $877 and sell despondently near lows over the next twenty years

In the 1987 Crash, people bought year-old Gold Eagles from $480 to $499.75 on the 19th of October to early December and watched them go down toward 395.40 a year later

Blanchard, at one time the world's largest gold coin dealer, acquired by my client at GE, turned bearish on gold at the 1999 bottom

Only those like GL and ZH Gold Bugs who thought Ben Bernake and Tim Geithner had stupid self-destructive urges for defenestration or piking themselves with runaway interest rates and cascading government defaults need apply

The Fed may end before its Century Birthday as Saxo Bank and others wish, peace may break out or the Treasury may default, I do not know if or when

But human nature does not change

Gold was a crowded trade almost a year, about the time those Gold Greed Ads started showing up at $1226.40 last December

Shall we agree to correspond cordially in a year to see how we did with our differing investment outlooks?


Tue, 11/02/2010 - 14:07 | 693835 redrob25
redrob25's picture



Debt and money are flip sides of the same coin. As one goes up, the other will come down. That is the way of the Federal Reserve system.


So yes bubble assets like housing and stocks will crash (they have a ways to go yet), while money will hyperinflate and 'revalue', in dollars, true money in gold and silver. It will also drive up commodity prices.


This is why Tyler spends so much time documenting the fact that while retail investors are bailing out of stock market and corporate insiders are running for the doors as fast as their cockroach legs can take them, gold, silver, and other commodities bull markets continue. The money is just moving from one area to the other. Deflation in some assets, inflation in others, and currency hyperinflation eventually.


The middle class will get 'murdered' because they won't have figured out the game in time.


My book for reference:

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 18:15 | 694331 ATG
ATG's picture


Popular overpriced diet and get rich quick books push expensive fads, then crash, burn their readers and sell for a buck on the bargain counter

Here are some previous top sellers from the 1980 gold peak:

    1. Crisis Investing: Opportunities and Profits in the Coming Great Depression, Douglas R. Casey

    3. Free to Choose: A Personal Statement, Milton and Rose Friedman

    6. The Sky's the Limit, Dr. Wayne W. Dyer

    7. The Third Wave, Alvin Toffler

    8. Craig Claiborne's Gourmet Diet, Craig Claiborne with Pierre Franey

    9. Nothing Down, Robert Allen

    10. How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years, Howard Ruff

    See a pattern?

    Every one of them was very popular and very wrong

    What goes up falls down

    Trees do not grow to the sky

    Good luck


Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:12 | 693417 caconhma
caconhma's picture

(Reuters) - President Barack Obama said on Monday he should not have used the word "enemies" to describe his political opponents as Republicans sought to make an issue of the comment a day before congressional elections.


How soon will Marxist-comrade Obama start calling his opponents "enemies of people" and like his Jewish Bolsheviks predecessors in Russia start building concentration-extermination camps for American people?


Looks like "the war on terror" is about to move against fellow Americans. How soon will we have a second civil war in America?

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:17 | 693437 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Probes ain't gonna like this:

Schwarzenegger bans welfare cards at psychics

Gov. Arnold Schwarzeneger says welfare recipients can no longer use state-issued debit cards at medical marijuana shops, psychics and other businesses whose services have been deemed "inconsistent with the intent" of the program.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:14 | 693206 fuu
fuu's picture

I see being bought by Oracle did nothing for your data integrity.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:27 | 693254 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Yes, the U.S. is finished. The big global capital is moving to Asia and China. It's a rap here, the wealth extraction is complete, toast, done, stick a fork in it. Now, here in the west, there is no ROI...just fat slobs and pensioners, and un-funded liabilities.


During the entire existence of mankind, we have had only 4 economies;

1) Hunting and Gathering (100% food economy for 100,000 years)

2) Agriculture economy (10,000 years)

3) Manufacturing economy (200 years)

4) Service (30 years)


What's next? Unemployment and starvation, since we are not able to directly access food, even if we returned to Hunting/gathering, the land has been stripped, and even if we had prinstine hunting grounds, North America will only carry about 10 million top predators. Yes, man is one of the top predators on planet earth, like the Lion, can you imagine 7 Billion Lions roaming the earth, not going to happen...just not enough to go around.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:30 | 693273 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

guess it's clear which economy was the most self sustaining

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:36 | 693297 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

Civilization IS the problem.  Sooner or later we will realize that money cannot be eate and the only sensible way to live is in harmony with your environment as an animal.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:21 | 693449 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

If only those that lament the success of humanity would kindly exit the scene, you know, jump of this mortal coil under their own power, that would solve 25% to 50% of the "problem"  -I mean the problem as they see it- right there.   

Personally I'm pretty psyched about eating industrially produced animal protein, burning the shit outta those fossil fuels, enjoying jet travel to vacation settings, coal powered chairlifts to get us up to the top of gasoline power groomed ski slopes, and all of that.  

Hunting is just fine too but that is mainly a shopping and drinking and networking activity...Goretex, guns and scopes and special clothes, RVs, hunting leases you can bring your customers along to, "camping" shit, trophies for the wall, trading tall tales around the campfire, shooting and cutting up nature with your bare hands.   The Awesome...once or twice a year.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:39 | 693497 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

You are forced to accept civilization. Civilization is your only choice, you cannot choose to live off the grid, YOU ARE A CONSUMER, it's the law.


For example, if one decided that he would like to return to the land and live off of it, were does he go? A National Forest? BLM lands? Private lands?


None of the Above.


You have NO CHOICE but to participate in the system which is set to incrementally drain your wealth and labor till the day you die, and if you have managed to accumulate any wealth, well, the system is set up to make sure that it is not passed to your children. Multi-generational wealth is against the law for citizens.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:08 | 693614 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture


Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:48 | 693535 kathy.chamberli...'s picture

i just made these same comments especially about ski areas. they put in big gondola that must consume a lot of energy to run up to the top of the mountain, three thousand feet up vertical. i am sure dick cheney had a lot to do with putting in the new huge replacement gondola at the HOLE, and a new chairlift to a restaurant. then fool the people with a green statement that they recycle. plus, aspen skiing company is owned privately by the crown family. so they don't serve blue fin tuna or a brazilian bass or something so they can claim green.


hunting season is just sick. do you know if you just purchased a hunting license in colorado you will be rescued for free if you are so dumb and get lost and found. no bill.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:28 | 693367's picture

can you imagine 7 Billion Lions roaming the earth, not going to happen...just not enough to go around.


"Lions in the street and roaming, dogs in heat, rabid, foaming -- a beast caged in the heart of the city." - Morrison

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:52 | 693350's picture

Matthew 7:13 Enter ye in at the strait gate: for wide is the gate, and broad is the way, that leadeth to destruction, and many there be which go in thereat: 14 Because strait is the gate, and narrow is the way, which leadeth unto life, and few there be that find it


"The gate is straight, deep and wide. Break on through to the other side." - Morrison

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:02 | 693591 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

Jesus and Morrison were both ANTI-Civilization

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:40 | 693745's picture

Please define your terms and provide citations to support your theses.

Thank you.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 14:00 | 693805 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

How bout you start thinking and listening to what each had to say.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 14:04 | 693815's picture

How about you back up your claims with facts?

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 14:54 | 693910 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

It's an opinion. Show me how Jesus and Morrison were defenders of Civilization and Progress.  Jesus was rebelling against the tyrannical civilization of Rome, saying we should be like lambs and so forth.  Morrison's idol was Dionysus, the god of wine and revelry, who's festivals routinely devolved into riots which threatened Civilization, which is Appolonian in nature.  read some Nietszche.  READ ANYTHING-other than The Fountainhead.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 19:17 | 694534's picture

Show me how Jesus and Morrison were defenders of Civilization and Progress.


I never claimed such a thing. You're the one with opinions which you can't be bothered to support beyond a few paltry observations.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:02 | 693385 BigJim
BigJim's picture

I've heard good arguments for inflation, deflation, and biflation.

The problem is - the economy is not deterministic. It all depends on how people respond to stimuli, and especially depends on what the government does to try to influence things. And there is an almighty feedback loop between those things, plus black swans, unexpected supply shocks, etc.

Yes, M1+ is decreasing, and QE will do nothing about that. So, we can expect deflation in the prices of things we need credit to buy. But we're competing with expanding economies for commodities, and so we can expect higher prices for these things to result. Unless... the US people realise inflation is a real possibility, and the velocity of money picks up, in which case all that newly expanded base money ricochets around the banking system and the banking multiplier works its dark magic, and voila! true monetary inflation.

If foreigners decide the US dollar is toast, they'll ditch dollar holdings and US treasuries and hyperinflation will result.

And given the complete capture of government by the finance industries, and their requirement to stave off deflation, I can see the government doing everything it can to induce inflation, and it all getting out of hand.

To say that you definitely can determine what will happen from here takes more than knowledge and genius - it takes omniscience. That's what makes it all so exciting; we really can have no certainty how this will all play out. 

But I will hazard it's not looking too good for anyone who isn't a financial insider.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:28 | 693472 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

"The problem is - the economy is not deterministic. "

Yeah, somebody should start a hedge fund based on that it the Quantum Fund or something.......then get in there jacking around not just with investments but also culture and politics and the media narrarative of what it all means!   You could make a lot of profit, OR if you are of that bent, just enjoy watching the world burn.   Can't think of a better way to ensure the latter than to destroy the constitution of the Unites States.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 19:51 | 694593 wake the roach
wake the roach's picture

There is no demand pull monetary inflation, period.

Rising commodity prices are being driven primarily by investor speculation based upon the perceived future expectation of demand pull monetary inflation within the real economy. Bubble economics 101. 

Oh sure, there is huge global demand for energy/commodities but demand and consumer ability to EXCHANGE VALUE for such (inflated) commodities are two completely different stories.  Until demand for credit within the real (worker/consumer) economy is rising (and is satisfied!) and thus re-inflating prices, and/or, the fed begins air dropping cash to the masses, speculative driven price increases in non-discretionary goods and services is further fueling the deflationary headwinds. 

It is credit that has fueled this global bubble and debt that cannot be repaid, will not be repaid. There is virtually nothing of monetary value today that is not carrying the scars of credit driven inflation. Everything is over valued (at least in nominal terms). The destruction of monetary credit units will outpace the best (hypothetical) attempt of central bankers to replace credit represented value with base monetary units.

Of course, given the scale of economic collapse we face, hyperinflation (loss of trust in exchange value) in fiat currency is a real possibility (timescale???) but its not a hand most people can afford to bet the farm on. Average Joe has virtually no understanding of the historical monetary value (trust) of pm's and as the overwhelming majority of the nations/worlds citizens do not own pm's, it is highly improbable that they will ever become a widely trusted medium of value exchange. Average Joe knows only one thing, cash is money. You cannot argue against stupidity so don't even try.

Ask yourself. Why would the monied elites of this world wish to sabotage the mechanism (cash) they are going to use to purchase credit inflated real assets for cents on the dollar? Just like they have done at the end of every other so called "debt cycle". Hold onto cash, we are deflating and beyond all control. If you have done everything within your means to become as self sufficient as possible and can afford to do so, only then should one invest in pm's.

Oh and remember, the fed is not liable for the losses of government creditors. They will exist long after the government is forced to default and so will their monopoly money.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:48 | 693530 ATG
ATG's picture

11 junks, but only one avatar willing to speak up

Says it all

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:53 | 693781 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Indeud: No junks yet for the avatar willing to speak up.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 09:56 | 692942 xPat
xPat's picture

Through early morning fog I see
visions of the things to be
the pains that are withheld for me
I realize and I can see...


That suicide is painless
It brings on many changes
and I can take or leave it if I please.

I try to find a way to make
all our little joys relate
without that ever-present hate
but now I know that it's too late, and...


The game of life is hard to play
I'm gonna lose it anyway
The losing card I'll someday lay
so this is all I have to say.


The only way to win is cheat
And lay it down before I'm beat
and to another give my seat
for that's the only painless feat.


The sword of time will pierce our skins
It doesn't hurt when it begins
But as it works its way on in
The pain grows it grin, but...


A brave man once requested me
to answer questions that are key
'is it to be or not to be'
and I replied 'oh why ask me?'

'Cause suicide is painless
it brings on many changes
and I can take or leave it if I please.
...and you can do the same thing if you choose.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:29 | 693227 Bob
Bob's picture


Easy to interpret it as an Anthem promoting withdrawal and suicide, but I think it more legitimately taken as a bracing, albeit exquisitely understated, wake up call. 

Pain is better than death.  The latter will make its call upon us all soon enough. 

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:52 | 693347 ddtuttle
ddtuttle's picture

True enough for all of us, but in combat, 'life' is a different thing. It's not clear that endless days of murdering your enemy to save your own life, while your friends are blown to bits is all that great. Remember MASH was really about Vietnam using the politically benign venue of Korea to make the point. My friends were getting shipped off and not coming back. For what?
Today, we are staring economic ruin in the eye, and a few of us will choose to take the easy way out. Remember that crazy but very funny video "Jump You F&*kers"?

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:51 | 693342 Jim Quinn
Jim Quinn's picture

Lyrics were written by the 14 year old son of the director - Robert Altman.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 09:55 | 692946 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Suicide is Painless


Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:55 | 693140 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bernanke and the ruling elite have chosen inflation as the USA's suicide method.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:29 | 693476 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Duh.  The fed is a suicide machine...  credit is our drug and we have an insatiable demand for it.  Actually, it's not credit, it's dreaming of living beyond our means without having to do gutwrenching work all day...  credit is just the embodiment of those dreams.  Knowing this, once presented with the choice, it is only a matter of time before we suicide ourselves on the drug.  Our dealer, thinking ahead, has set up a nifty limited liability organization to limit potential risk posed by our death.  Through the years, he's been converting our drug money into hard assets and has enough now to "go straight" and engage in legitimate business...  rather, more accurately, to control a startling amount of of the survivors' productive capacity.

good plan.

PS, even if we survive, we're still a washed up/toothless/unemployable ex-junkie... 

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:56 | 693144 Yorick7
Yorick7's picture

Yeah, then grab his watch and wallet.  Hope the author is wrong.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 09:57 | 692952 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

This is perhaps a better piece of music to play:

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:12 | 693193 Tenma13
Tenma13's picture

I'd go with this:

A little less 'oh woe is me' a little more, ' unite and fight' 

stick tight!

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 09:59 | 692956 Jason T
Jason T's picture

This was a brilliant post!  The oil crisis coupled with the debt crisis go hand in hand.  You need oil to do work.  You need to do work to pay off debt.  We are going to try to print out way out of the debt and that is the deal with the devil and will lead to us to hell. 

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:26 | 693032 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

Vonnegut covered the oil crisis and suicide before he died in 2007.

I was just hoping for anarchy sooner than 2055...

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:04 | 693172 Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

Thanks for the link.  A very smart man.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:44 | 693324 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

"I was just hoping for anarchy sooner than 2055..."

No one hopes for that, but you may get your wish sooner than that. Much sooner. The banks are running out of cash now. Could be months, could be weeks.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:55 | 693364's picture

Anarchy is your friend. It simply means that individuals will have no masters. We get to keep all the benefits of a functional, volition based society. It's a good thing.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:06 | 693402 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

I agree with having no master but at the same time, anarchy is NEVER a good option. Then again, what TPTB are doing is nothing short of anarchic. Now, if everyone withdraws their money and buys gold...

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:35 | 693487's picture

I don't think you know what the word "anarchy" means. It simply means "no government." It does not mean rioting in the streets. People can obtain all the services provided by government at a lower cost and with higher reliability through a free market.

TPTB want you to believe that "anarchy" means burning old women and drinking the blood of babies because with "no government" TPTB will go out of business. Don't fall for their line of crap.


I'm in favor of reason over whim. As far as I'm concerned, and I think the rest of the movement, too, we are anarcho-capitalists. In other words, we believe that capitalism is the fullest expression of anarchism, and anarchism is the fullest expression of capitalism. Not only are they compatible, but you can't really have one without the other. True anarchism will be capitalism, and true capitalism will be anarchism. -- Murray Rothbard

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 16:05 | 694176 technovelist
technovelist's picture

Yes, it's amazing how many intelligent and otherwise knowledgeable people, including most of the posters here, think that anarchy means chaos, when in fact government means chaos. I guess that's a testimony to one of the very few things government is good at: pulling the wool over the eyes of the public.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:27 | 693042 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

I think the entire post can be seriously condensed by viewing things in terms of resource control and extraction by any means possible. It connects a lot of the dots, IMO.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:01 | 692963 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

I wanted to be Hawkeye when I grew up.  I succeeded and failed at that endeavor.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:08 | 692986 His Dudeness
His Dudeness's picture

But you dress like Klinger!

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:24 | 693457 Seer
Seer's picture

What are you doing in his closet?! :-)

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:07 | 692964 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

I want to marry Hawkeye Pierce when i grow up.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:53 | 693133 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

As a little girl, my wife had a major crush on Alan Alda.   I used to kid her about it.  All the cool, hunky guys out there, and you had a crush on that guy?  

Then I remembered she married me, and it all didn't seem quite so funny any more.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:31 | 693361 ATG
ATG's picture

On Honeymoon in Mediterranean some of the crew of Dynasty, Loveboat and Mash were at the Athens table next door in the candlelit dark with yet another socialist power outage

The only item available was seafood that turned out to have ptomaine poisoning cured only by ample Ouzo

Linda lovely, Alan funny, Klinger kitschy, but Radar a screaming hoot howl

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:02 | 692967 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture


Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:07 | 692971 Mako
Mako's picture

No, it's a stupid article.  If you don't have inflation of the money supply ie credit, you won't have the interest to pay off the prior money supply created.  Without inflation, you collapse and liquidate... this is what happens when you attach interest to your money supply. 

"Grantham warns that Bernanke’s actions on Wednesday are a desperate last ditch attempt to fend off the pain of reality. It will fail."

Of course, you can't exponential grow forever, which is the system all you lemmings want to have, well, at the end of the line... collapse and liquidation of the non-performing lemmings.

"This is truly a suicide mission."

It was a suicide mission the day the lemming decide to attach interest to their transaction and money supply.  The article is once again blaming the last straw instead the first straw.


Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:08 | 692984 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

"collapse and liquidation of the non-performing lemmings."


Please Please make this happen.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:10 | 692991 Mako
Mako's picture

I don't make anything happen but it will happen... always does.  I figure a billion or more non-performing will have to go during the first wave.

All this site is... is a bunch of lemmings blaming and pointing fingers yet they still haven't figured out the root cause.  Get rid of Benny and the problem you think will be eliminated will still exist.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:14 | 693001 Judge Smales
Judge Smales's picture

Relax, Photoguy.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 15:05 | 693989 merehuman
merehuman's picture

we are the lemmings we speak of!  You crazy ass americans Want to be wiped out?  i refer to "Please Please make this happen" Hell of  a feeling to know you wish me/us/them dead. Fuck you, with passion and conviction.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:11 | 692992 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Whoever junked this comment is a real jerkwad.

What don't people understand about the role credit plays as proxy for money?

Unless they start handing out cash on the corners, you don't have to worry about inflation. Rising prices does not equate to inflation, rising prices can be driven by the PERCEPTION and THREAT of inflation or debasement, but it will be short lived as the real economy that everyone but Benny and the boys live in is tied to the laws of physics and gravity.

People aren't going to chase rising prices. Oh no, when they don't have jobs or savings left, they'll simply just stop buying.

Stupid article, totally detached from reality.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:12 | 692997 Mako
Mako's picture

It's like a greek comedy isn't it?  They all think they have the answer to their problem, when in reality the only solution is collapse and liquidation, but they don't like that answer.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:20 | 693018 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

People will go to any length to run from the truth.

I heard one guy say that every time you buy an ounce of gold it takes $100,000 out of the banking system.

So I guess everytime the coin store down the street sells a coin, somewhere else another person is shoveling $100,000 cash into a furnace.


Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:26 | 693030 Mako
Mako's picture

It is quite strange sometimes.  I had this one guy tell me everyone will have to bring a wheel barrow to the store full of cash to buy groceries.  I told him if he and his neighbors ever showed up at the bank with their wheel barrows, not only would the bank refuse to fill them up, they would throw them out and lock the doors for good.

The lemmings are lemmings for a reason.  As you suggested, the run from the Truth and for good reason, because as soon as the Truth hits the lemmings over the head... a huge hole will open beneath the Lemmings feet.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:26 | 693242 hack3434
hack3434's picture

Omnipotent Mako has Say...What makes so immune to current events? Or is something getting lost in translation? 

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:08 | 693390's picture

Mako appeared in several episodes of MASH. When Hawkeye, Trapper and Frank took the bus to Rainbow Bridge to collect wounded GIs from the North Koreans, Mako is the NK officer. In the episode where Hawkeye goes on R and R but is held hostage by a North Korean whose young friend is wounded, well that fellow is also played by Mako. I think he's in one or two other episodes as well.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:39 | 693085 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

I've heard a lot of things from a lot of people...what is your point?  Silly...

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 14:05 | 693823 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Mako you're posts read like Italian Operas: the conflict hinges on an obvious, sometimes seemingly deliberate misunderstanding that results in misdirected rage that ends in a melodramatic tragedy.

IE Everyone knows that collapse and liquidation (reset) are the best answer, but you seem to be the only one who doesn't realize that the TBTF aren't going to let that happen. At least not 'til they have secured their reservations in the lifeboats, and convinced everyone else to stay on board, which is proving to be more and more difficult all the time.



Tue, 11/02/2010 - 15:04 | 693986 Mako
Mako's picture

"the only one who doesn't realize that the TBTF aren't going to let that happen"

If that is true, I am the only one that has any common sense.  You act like it's a choice to collapse or not... sorry, you better learn to swim.  For the record, I do not believe I am the only one.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 20:20 | 694477 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

You're half right, but you still don't get it. There is no choice for you or me, correct, however the TBTF can 'extend and pretend' as long as they think they need to, because they control those who control those who control the fiat 'printing' presses,  FASB, BLS, the courts, legislation, regulation, and most any other "-tion" you'd care to mention.

Ever hear the ol' adage,

"Free for those who can afford it, very expensive for those who can't"?

What event could possibly force their hand before they are ready for us to eat the shit sandwich it contains? 

Until the TBTF have a lucrative deflationary exit (ie they have offloaded enough of their toxic assets on the likes of you and me) inflation is their best and readily available option in the event these deeply in the red assets are forced to be marked to market.

JMHO, natch.


Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:31 | 693045 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Mako gets junked because he fails to demonstrate any sense of empathy for we lemmings. At least that is the response I get when I pose the same exact question. Of course, lost in their emotional rage, the junkers appear to neglect to consider that what Mako is asserting is absolutely correct.

With credit somewhere in the range of 80-90% of combined money system aggregates, merely printing the other 10-20% can only lead to non-credit price increases as credit 'money' deflates; hence stagflation. That being said, I disagree with Jim on other fundamental levels:

First, I have consistently asked how dollar destruction will assist the USA's strategic objectives with regard to military occupation & control of ME oil supplies. So far, no one has yet presented a rationale explanation.

Second, if the Tea Party members decline to raise the debt ceiling in the Jan/Feb 2011 time frame, all hell breaks loose. Alternatively, if they DO vote to raise the ceiling, all hell breaks loose.

For some reason, ZH and its contributors have this myopic interest in the Fed. While it is true that it played a crucial part during the last two year period of 'extend & pretend', that primacy has ended.

Perhaps its ZH's disinclination to wallow in political issues, but mark my words, the next two years are going to be all about politics. If ZH wishes to stay relevant, it might consider directing its resources at ferreting out legislative intrigue.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:36 | 693065 Mako
Mako's picture

Me showing "empathy" will not change any of the facts.  I can only assume the Lemmings or their offspring love to get liquidated, why should I show "empathy" for a species that wants what is going to occcur? 

Blaming Benny is like blaming the last straw that broke the camel's back instead of the first straw.  Lemmings are free to believe what they wish, nothing I can do to stop them... although I have given many hints on where to look. 

"All I can do is show you the door Neo, you must walk through it"

I am starting to believe things will never change for the Lemmings, they love the lie, they live for it.  Same as it ever was.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:58 | 693150 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

I am starting to believe things will never change for the Lemmings, they love the lie, they live for it.  Same as it ever was.

You might as well just pack it in and enjoy the show. Human nature is going to run its course, when you tell people the truth they just become bitter and resentful. The reaction I encounter most frequently is for people just to stonewall and seek the company of others who enjoy the same delusions.

Sad thing is that it's going to be just as bad for the people who know the truth as it is for the lemmings.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:13 | 693200 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

This lemming is not ready to pack it in or run away and hide.  I am just looking for a more elaborative explanation of mako, b9k9 and your point.  Most of us understand that credit is a large portion of the total monetary base.  Pardon my ignorance or failure to connect the dots but how physically then did folks in weimar come into possession of fat stacks are the pictures a lie?

Do I perhaps not understand the effect on the creit system vis a vis the cash contingent of our economy..  Feel free to junk or enlighten..

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:45 | 693323 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Weimar currency was the "papiermark", literally an economy awash in paper notes. Government deficits were printed and spent into the economy.

In todays economy money is loaned into existence by commerce. Couple this with the fact that every day we have to drill deeper for oil is a day in which commerce is less able to afford its very own inputs and margins shrink. Business can't afford to chase prices higher, 70% of economy is consumer driven and consumers balance sheets are just awful so business is just closing the doors now. The ones who really provided jobs were the mom and pop stores and factories which produced real goods, those really started going the way of the dodo once peak oil availability for a price occured in 1998 at $12 a barrel.

Today all America produces in reality is energy waste and valuable dollars which are exported for goods, emerging markets must have USD with which to purchase oil to drive their own commerce and trade.

So the only thing which could actually drive inflation (rising prices don't necessarily equate to inflation btw, shortages or "perception of impending inflation" can drive prices higher temporarily, thanks Benny but your gig is up now with QE2 priced in and a looming snapback) is small business paying people to work. But what would a small business do today in which ever less oil is available at a price? Since economic growth in essence is simply energy waste we have reached a point where we can no longer afford to do business. Oil is becoming too expensive to use. Can you imagine gas being at $4 today? You would easily see a 1/4 reduction in trade and commerce. Any attempts at creating inflation are doomed to immediate failure by driving prices to the point business will just turn out the lights.


Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:10 | 693623 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

EXACTLY!  They will use other items to trade for oil.  And the US dollar will be worthless.  HEnce, HYPERINFLATION.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:16 | 693646 ATG
ATG's picture

I am just looking for a more elaborative explanation of mako, b9k9 and your point.

Follow the trail of unspoken junks by lemmings from the top on down

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:54 | 693360 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Sad thing is that it's going to be just as bad for the people who know the truth as it is for the lemmings.

JD, excellent point. My esteemed father, who coined the phrase "He who complains has already lost", had another favorite saying:

The reward for knowledge is the booby prize.

It doesn't matter if you know what's coming or are completely ignorant (hence, the ever popular "Ignorance is bliss") - everyone is gonna get whacked. You may, just might have a leg up if you're prepared, but within weeks/months, guess who will stick out like a sore thumb looking all hearty & hale?

Think you can form an alliance with others sufficient to overcome the zombie hordes? LOL That's why I believe the best course of action is to have a bug out country already spotted & prepped.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:28 | 693475 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

The reward for knowledge is the booby prize.

that's classic!

ignorance=bliss is as knowledge=sorrow

RE: bug out...see my comment below. I'm prepared to embrace a far simpler standard of living although it would surely not be easy, having lived with all things I take for granted today.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 15:22 | 694031 merehuman
merehuman's picture

B9K9. 3 dogs and a 90 year old friend will keep me where i am. Here on the Oregon coast we are isolated from the main stream a bit . There are few roads and little here to gain. So its relatively safe and will remain such until ww3 or chemtrails get us. all my neighbors are lemmings still despite me harangueng them . There are times i feel very alone because even those near and dear do not take me serious, nor will they look on their own. 

Mako posts as if he lives on a different planet and none of this will affect him/her. The way he writes posits that he is above us or much smarter and that is what creates the hostility and junks therefore.

Where is the love Mako?

PS  i never junked mako as i agree with him



Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:29 | 693269 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

B9K9 wrote: "First, I have consistently asked how dollar destruction will assist the USA's strategic objectives with regard to military occupation & control of ME oil supplies. So far, no one has yet presented a rationale explanation."

This is an interresting question. Keep in mind that oil is paid for in dollars, so as long as that keeps up, it's a wash.  Also keep in mind that a lot of the debt out there world-wide is also in dollars, so that the debt costs are reduced. However, foreign countries get in a bind, because they have to pay their debts in dollars, and at the same time reduce their currency to keep exports going.

I don't have an answer to your question, but it strikes me that a cheaper dollar hurts others far more than it hurts the US (and the US military). Therein may lay the answer to your (rather important) question. But I'm just thinking off the top of my head here.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:02 | 693381 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Currency destruction benefits the first spenders (US fedgov) at the expense of everyone else who holds dollars (evil oil states). Also, unless the oil states are able to generate a supply squeeze in response (or speculators jump in), prices won't necessarily advance as fast as the dollar falls, so they are really taking a direct loss in purchasing power. Add to that ZIRP has taken the benefits away from recycling into Treasurys and you can see how they are left sitting on a deteriorating asset. This is why the oil states are moving to price oil in other currencies as a way to protect their wealth.

Of course, the end of the petrodollar (along with the accompanying wars) could also be the tripping point to induce hyper-inflation, as all those worthless dollars come rushing home.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:05 | 693392 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Actually, it's a loaded question. Everyone who believes in unlimited QE seems to treat the $USD as a mere unit of account, but it is also a store of value. And guess who are the primary users of this store of value? The Chinese & ME oil exporters.

Right now, we're using a carrot/stick method in our approach towards the ME occupation. But if we nuked the oil producers' store of value, then we'd have to switch over to a pure stick play. That is, unbar the mask and admit to the world that we are nothing more than the Japanese/Germans during WWII - a pure resource & domination empire.

This poses significant strategic disadvantages, in that the entire world would be united in opposition to us - with the Russians & Chinese providing both manpower & nukes. Right now, we get to dance around the issue, with enough confusion to deflect most direct inquiries. Strip the facade away, and it gets pretty nasty.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:47 | 693533 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

B9, you've been dancing around this explanation for quite some time now.   this comment just nailed it crystal clear.  

one variable that i feel is not discussed enough is the effect that hyperinflation of the FRN would have on the rest of the world considering it's still the defacto reserve currency.  foe example, like a poster a week ago mentioned, everyone in Caracas is clamoring for US$.

unlimited QE is a very short fuse to a global powder keg methinks.   and i also think whoever is pulling the strings on this realizes that as well.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:19 | 693657 ATG
ATG's picture

QE = Smoot Hawley redux

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:57 | 693795 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

"we are nothing more than the Japanese/Germans during WWII - a pure resource & domination empire"

- so true, 'justified' through arrogance, and a heavy sprinkling of 'manifest destiny' - I always hate to hear the typical american "we are the greatest country on earth' crap (yes, live in US) 

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:30 | 693053 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

Yes but this time when it collapses the currency will collapse too due to lack of faith.  So hyperinflation is still in the cards.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:40 | 693072 Mako
Mako's picture

That is not hyperinflation.  You use credit as money, credit will not be hyperinflating. 

People can turn their backs on anything they want regardless of the number of items in circulation. 

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:42 | 693095 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

Hyperinflation=loss of faith in currency.  People will still trade, just not in dollars.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:45 | 693103 Mako
Mako's picture

Inflation is the increase of the money supply.

Faith = faith

One is a fact, the other is a human emotion.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:50 | 693120 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

Exactly, if ppl lose faith in the currency, it will be worthless.  The same would happen if they lost faith in gold.  Most things in this world are abstract and emotional and based on faith.  The dollar relies on counterparty faith in government to pay off its debts and get out of this mess.  How much faith do you have?

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:02 | 693164 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

The dollar relies on faith that you can purchase oil with it. Until that fact is on the verge of changing I suggest you look to other, more pressing issues.

I have zero faith in society as a whole, that's why I own a little bit of everything and offer real services to people who produce real things such as food and materials.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:24 | 693236 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

It's always nice to have real things, but look at the world around you, the dollar is losing that status rather quickly.  It seems to me like the oil nations want to trade in gold nowadays, as they have already lost faith in the dollar.  If you ignore the trends you may miss the boat.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:53 | 693355 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

What trends, my friend?

These nations have a lot of dollar denominated debt to pay. They could of course repudiate it and we could pull out of the Gulf. A blowup in the ME would occur within 3 months probably and the global economy would melt down. Nobody knows for sure but that's a gamble I think few nations are willing to take


Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:47 | 693528 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

Who cares?  the dollar denominated debt is never going to be repaid by anyone.  It will be repudiated for all by the US FED.  DEFLATION IN THE US DOLLAR IS 100% PREVENTABLE BY THE CENTRAL BANK!  either way it's all going down and you can be stuck with pieces of paper or things that have value, real or perceived; ie GOLD BITCHEZ

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:29 | 693691 ATG
ATG's picture

the dollar is losing that status rather quickly

In 1913 the dollar bought one twentieth ounce of gold

In 2010 the dollar bought one 1388th ounce of gold

Not exactly overnight

The real practical scarcity is cash dollars in a virtual credit economy that can collapse overnight by CyberSecurity Executive Order or pending Lieberman Rockefeller legislation turning off ATMS and Internet Exchanges, not paper or bullion gold sold by central banks holding 16,000+ tonnes

Like debating angels on a pinhead

Let us know when Safeway gives Silver Eagle change for Gold Eagles for a loaf of bread or liter of beer

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 14:18 | 693858 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Yah, 'cuz the min. wage clerk at 'Food Flood' is likely to know the difference between specie and fiat.

A not so deliberately far fetched circumstance:

At your locally owned corner store or farmer's market, however, where the guy behind the counter OWNS the store... Well, if you were a regular customer and he was fairly certain you weren't some sort of tax-mole, I'd wager you could cut a decent deal with your maples, be they silver or gold.

Not to mention the benefits you would provide for your local economy by not shopping at MalWart.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:34 | 693289 fajensen
fajensen's picture

The dollar relies on faith that you can purchase oil with it.

The USD is already fraying at the edges; You cannot buy Russian wheat with it, You cannot buy Chinese Rare Earths, Phosphorus, Cokes, soon Rice will become "unobtanium". If you are an Arab or a Chinese, you cannot buy American businesses or land for "strategic" reasons with your USD. Only stupid bonds that probably will default while you are holding them. Eventually, when enough desirables are no longer traded in the markets, Oil will become difficult to get without some other physical desirable to trade with.

IOW: The USD is getting more and more useless. Creeping hyperinflation. A New Thing.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:59 | 693370 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Russians stopped exporting wheat, it's not a USD thing. Same w/rare earths. Not sure abt phosphorus, etc

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:31 | 693713 ATG
ATG's picture

As fast as middle eastern oil producers eschew the dollar, we invade them with DU

Will we do the same with China, Iran or Russia?

Stay tuned

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:31 | 693426 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

@ fajensen <TA DA!>


Meanwhile back in their Legendary Land of the Lemmings Mako (aka your enraged voice of Mishinformed paternalism) and crew ironically cry out with all the believability of a C-grade actor:

"NO... that's not true, that's impossible..Noooooooooooo, noooooooeechhhearerrgggh. <whinge>"

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:40 | 693501 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Hey Hank, we know lots of things are possible in your delusional mind. Hahaha

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:14 | 693618 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Was that vid meant to be analagous to my position, or yours?

I suppose if I was playing the role of Admiral there are some cognates...


Tell me again your fairytale where a quadrillion dollars in interest payments trumps a world full of nations with fiat currencies that can go from zero to infinity in under 10s.

Now, if things were to suddenly be 'Marked to Market' I might change my tune, but that will only happen once almost (if not) all the toxic debt has been offloaded upon the worlds' gov'ts' balance sheets.  Not there quite yet, still too many banks that would get in trouble should mark to skypies end.

Price inflation is a trailing indicator of what again? The RATE of price inflation YoY may be declining, but it sure as f isn't in negative territory, by even your stretches of the imagination. And this is happening despite all the egregious deleveraging that has been going on since late 2008. Please explain how that fits into your pet theory.

Look, even the Don Quixote of Deflation Mike Shedlock isn't certain if we are in deflation or inflation as of this moment; I would take note if I were you. -Sancho Panza

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:40 | 693308 ricksventures
ricksventures's picture

Since times of Babylon people have not lost their faith in Gold but they will now ???? sure...only a denier of a complete collapse of dollar could say something silly like that

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:34 | 693724 ATG
ATG's picture

If/when gold goes from $1388 to $650,

and the dollar from 70.70 to 115,

may need lots of faith

Took 20 years from 1980 peak to 1999 bottom

Thu, 11/04/2010 - 18:16 | 701233 ricksventures
ricksventures's picture

thinking that the trouble we are in right now can still be fixed and we could just go back to the 80s is a pure pure delusion , its over buddy, there is no way out and we are pumping more and more worthless paper, that wasnt the case ever before ever since us dollar exists


80 was the only time it happened, who ever bought gold in 1930s is still a winner and even the person who bought it in 80s or 2000

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:52 | 693128 ricksventures
ricksventures's picture

Inflation is the increase of the money supply BACKED WITH WHAT EXACTLY ??? Ben's dirty underwear ????



Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:35 | 693730 ATG
ATG's picture

backed with usurious public debt and taxes sucking the life out of the economy

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:19 | 693017 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Correct Mako. 

All we as Americans need to do is look to our constitution. 



Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:27 | 693035 Mako
Mako's picture

The Constitution does not address the problem.  Matter of fact the United states was first given a loan by France to fight the British from which interest was attached.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:55 | 693141 ricksventures
ricksventures's picture

So what ??? Does that mean we have to go on borrowing forever and everafter ????

How about living within each means ? What happen to saving for when times will be bad ???


Unless we plan to write off all the debt and tell china to and load the nukes or better yet a good ol civil war

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:45 | 693330 fajensen
fajensen's picture

Unless we plan to write off all the debt

Throughout history sovereign states have *always* defaulted on their debts. It is a rather recent invention that "debt is sacred" and that sovereign states should loot and pillage their own population to service their debts instead of doing what the sovereigns were created to do: protect their people from foreigners claims on land, title and tithe.

This time will be no different. It is just such a long time* ago that a 1'st world power defaulted that people have forgotten about it and are happily lending to sovereings at less than 1% interest.

*) Market Time: It is less than 20 years ago that Russia went tits-up. This is generations of fund managers in the past.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:05 | 693396 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Do you know why Russia when tits up?

Hint; it has to do with grain and oil

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:46 | 693758 ATG
ATG's picture

Russia is the world's leading energy exporter, #3 in grain exports, #9 in gold reserves

Curtailing grain exports another ploy to destabilize USA

Russia collapsed for the same reason facing US = corruption

Today's diselection of incumbents replaced by Constitutionalists may save US, or not


Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:27 | 693044 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

UR 100% correct.  Interest is Usury.  Usury is theft. End of story.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:40 | 693310 Peak Everything
Peak Everything's picture

If people do not receive a reward for loaning others their saved capital then there will be no credit. Are you arguing for a creditless system?

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:48 | 693333 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

Yes.  A friend never expects to be repaid, when I loan to a friend, i consider it a gift.  Fuck usury.  Interest is why the banks own everything and you own nothing.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:18 | 693438's picture

So what should your friend do when he needs to borrow more money than you have available?

Usury is as usury does. Nothing wrong with voluntary agreements.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:34 | 693489 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

So what should your friend do when he needs to borrow more money than you have available?

Make damn sure he has a lot of wealthy friends other than just you?

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:41 | 693506 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

If people were smarter they would stop entering into voluntary agreements that are destructive.  Agreements with states, banks etc.  Fuck usury, it's your choice if you want to perpetrate it or be a victim to it...I choose neither.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:03 | 693595's picture

I am neither a borrower nor a lender. But I don't feel justified in calling folks who act differently than I do "stupid." At least not in the very broad way you go about it.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:14 | 693637 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

I do what I say.  And I say what I mean.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:43 | 693751 BigJim
BigJim's picture

There's nothing wrong with charging interest on money lent. It's the fractional reserve lending system that is the problem.

If I have a spare £1000, I can either invest it, put it in a bank to 'earn' interest, or stuff it under a mattress. If I stuff it under a mattress I get no return on it, unless we're in a deflationary environment. If I invest it, I have to accept the risk I'll lose a substantial proportion (or all) of my principle if my investments head south. If I put the money in the bank, I get a small, guaranteed compensation for giving them the opportunity to lend it out to people who need money now. They act as intermediaries between me and defaulting borrowers. This is all fine.

It's when you start introducing fiat currencies and fractional reserve banking that it goes bad.

It's reasonable to expect a return on money you've lent out to compensate for the risk of losing it, and the opportunity costs arising from being unable to put that money to work.

I don't charge my friends for loans either... though at the speed some of them pay me back, maybe I should.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 14:06 | 693827's picture

There's nothing wrong with charging interest on money lent. It's the fractional reserve lending system that is the problem.



Tue, 11/02/2010 - 14:40 | 693926 Walter_Sobchak
Walter_Sobchak's picture

I disagree.  The only reason you earn a little interest is because the bank is charging outrageous interest to others.  You end up paying 3X the value of a home when you take out a loan.  And if misfortune should befall you and you can't pay, the bank gets your fucking house.  Why should someone be homeless if there are empty houses?  Because banks own the damn houses through what amounts to theft.  Even if you don't default the bank still steals from you in an amount twice the value of what they lent.  hardly sounds fair.  Sounds more like theft to me.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 19:20 | 694536's picture

And if misfortune should befall you and you can't pay, the bank gets your fucking house.


If you didn't pay for it what makes it your house?

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:57 | 693146 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You seem to assume theyre trying to dig us out....those shovels full of dirt are Bernanke and the gang throwing the dirt ON us.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:16 | 693209 Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

Mako, very true.  Everything already existed as it is when everyone in this forum was born.  To blame anyone alive is to miss the point - we are merely perpetuating the status quo.  A better use of time is planning for the eventual collapse because we are near the end of the cycle.  I do ask Mako, what are your plans?  I am genuinely interested.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:16 | 693420 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

I'll chime in with my answer.

I have people laugh at me but I have a couple of kayaks, few hundred pounds of 9 grain wheat, plenty of fishing gear, firearms, heirloom seeds and unimpeded access to vast areas of uninhabited wildlands and waterways. Also keep enough fresh gasoline on hand to make it there with all my hand tools and some living necessities as well as medical gear and my wife's basic schoolteaching literature.

The best part is that my wife doesn't think I'm nuts, I've shown her some of the stuff on ZH and educated her as to my take on the situation we face with plateaud oil production and the backside of the curve.

I've made it clear to her (and others) that I don't see it as the most likely course of action we will have to resort to but she knows that if it boils down to it her best chances are with me and there's no reason for her to worry about anything except focusing on what she's best at until TSHTF


Tue, 11/02/2010 - 12:30 | 693389 ATG
ATG's picture


Junking in this case may be the sincerest form of flattery

No one ever made money investing in overvalued assets in a crowded trade without income

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 13:33 | 693496 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Unless the only truly 'overvalued asset' in your 'crowded trade' is fiat currencies. In which case there is a lot of real money to be made divesting out of them.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:05 | 692975 Dismal Scientist
Dismal Scientist's picture

Slightly OT, but I have to say you folks elected him...

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:20 | 693020 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

My 3 year-old is laughing because I was laughing so hard at this. 

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 14:48 | 693949 piceridu
piceridu's picture

That's so f''king funny! Thanks for the link.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:06 | 692978 spartan117
spartan117's picture

The GOT MILK graph is nice.  Too bad it's going to take so long to culminate into anarchy.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 10:58 | 693153 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I dont think it will take so long at all.

Tue, 11/02/2010 - 11:55 | 693362 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Past results do not guarantee future results. In this case, the 50+ years of the empire's rise will not indicate it will take 50+ years to decline. It takes years to build a reputation and a moment to destroy it. Or, it can be said, a large complicated building (such as the Vegas hotels of yore) take years to build but only moments to destory (to make room for new).


I'm very surprised everyone is focusing in on the Fed. [wink wink] The real story is how much the ECB is spending on Ireland...

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