Guest Post: Suicide is Painless

Tyler Durden's picture

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Wynn's picture

First Col. Blake, then Trapper John and Frank Burns. I miss the old days.

ATG's picture

The interesting mass psychology of market tops is that participants become evem more convinced and bullish after the top

ZH friends and foes, the top is in for inflation

Using consistent methodology, it was set in 1980 with 15% real inflation, and 2008 with 13%. Now only 8%, headed downtown

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Yes, corn, coffee, wheat and cotton were up 70 - 191% recently, these exceptions proving the downtrend

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$DJACN

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$DJAKC

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$DJAWH

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$DJACT

The annual rate of change in monetary indicators is collapsing despite talk of QE II

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=BASE&s[1][transformation]=pc1

Money multiplier and velocity are contracting

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/page12.pdf

Gold is targeting -10%, Long Bonds +30%, dollars +49%

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=%24gold

\http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USB

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=%24usd

This is not the stuff of inflation, but debt default deflation.

As usual, the Fed and other central banks may be well behind free market curves far bigger than they are

Generals fight the last war, and not one man in a million understands deflation

People betting on up instead of down may become broke, humbled and hungry while fat cats short inflation hedges and long bonds and cash get richer

Matthew 7:13 Enter ye in at the strait gate: for wide is the gate, and broad is the way, that leadeth to destruction, and many there be which go in thereat: 14 Because strait is the gate, and narrow is the way, which leadeth unto life, and few there be that find it

http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/

ATG's picture

 

You are stupid to use that garbage technical analysis on gold. That is not even real technical analysis. Gold is not overbought. It is in a 30 year oversold condition. The market will punish your ignorance harshly.

ad hominems do not become you Q or enlighten us

Matthew 16:2-3

When evening comes, you say, ‘It will be fair weather, for the sky is red,’ 3 and in the morning, ‘Today it will be stormy, for the sky is red and overcast.’ You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times.

Quinvarius's picture

Ignorance becomes you.  Your post was so ignorant it was not even worth taking it apart point by ignorant point.

ATG's picture
by Quinvarius
on Wed, 06/16/2010 - 12:34
#417947

 

Spoken like a man who does not know the definition of inflation.  This time you are going to buy the bottom instead of sell it becasue this time you can predict the crash, right?  The world is not going to conform to your personal definitions or economic bias.  We have massive inflation now.  Inflation is not price changes.  Inflation is an increase in the money supply.  Period.  Insane fears of deflation, like yours, are why we are going to sail directly into hyper inflation.  You want a do over.  Tough luck.  We are on to the next crisis and it has nothing to do with shrinking the money supply.

Quinvarius's picture

It is funny that you are so ignorant you think that supports your point.  That is how truly ignorant you are.  Really dude.  I am laughing at you.  You should have listend to me then.  You would have made 60% betting on the food inflation that you wrote off as fluke.

Please.  Tell me you are being sarcastic in your original post.  Then I will apologize.

ATG's picture

Q, listened to you?

Name calling, projecting and posting off the point do not work as a substitute for value

Bought gold stocks and Mexican Gold and Silver Angel Peso coins around $105 and $4 and sold Gold and Silver eagles around $1210 and $25 with Big4, currently up 1597% year to date

Taught Stanford students about the Continental and Greenbacks

And you have been predicting Weimar hyperinflation for how long?

Tripling the Fed Balance sheet or monetary base did not matter because defaulting debts and derivatives dwarf anything the Fed can throw at the American or global economy

Big4 noted coffee, corn, cotton, wheat et al bull markets long ago when they were unpopular

No need to apologize

Might bone up on Leviticus and Irving Fisher re the deleterious effects of usury and debt default deflation before you lose your assets

It took the Yale and Harvard Club Economist four years to figure out why we were not on a plateau of permanent prosperity as he declared in October 1929 days before the bottom fell out

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usury

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/02/irving-fishers-debt-deflation-the...

Cheers

 

Quinvarius's picture

I have no idea what you are saying anymore.  You take my side of the argument now but don't say which half of you is sarcastic.

ATG's picture

Never took your side of the bogus argument Q

Highlighted your past bully false insult posts for all to see

Ad hominems not an argument but an embarrassment for the slinger

In three words, what I am saying is Debt default deflation, not QEII monetary inflation, increasingly plain for most to see, if they but look

You have not refuted any points in the original post disagreeing with (monetary) suicide is painless

Massive voter fraud today illustrates exactly how bankrupt the establishment is with their Eric Holder neoCon neoKeynesian 0Care Eric DHS Terrorism posse comitatus teleprompter fantasies

When the bottom falls out, maybe more will see what's going on

Quinvarius's picture

Ignorant.  Your posts refute themselves.  That is why no one is wasting bandwidth ripping you a new one.  Your whole argument is that you choose to ignore what you don't like, while at the same time stating you are ignoring it as if it proves your point.

You need to read some books on economics, son.

ATG's picture
Troll put-down artist reputation precedes and haunts you Q Lack of reading comprehension, vocabulary or intelligent material rebuttal speaks volumes: eg by Quinvarius
on
Sun, 10/31/2010 - 09:45
#689076

Everything in that post was completely ignorant.  Please tell me you are being sarcastic.

ffart's picture

Deflation or inflation, the dollar is fucked. But if you're concerned about your gold losing value I'll buy it all off you for a reasonable price say $50/oz.

ATG's picture

ff

As posted, gold sold

$50 is the face value of the legal tender one ounce Gold Eagle coin

Would be very surprised to see gold go that low

Right now they are selling at premiums up to $1599, a sucker bet to be sure

http://www.goldcoineagle.com/

GoinFawr's picture

Sucker bet? Compared to FRN's?!

Johny Bravo, eat your heart out, there's a new kid in town.

ATG's picture

LOL

Ok, you got me laughing GF, goodonya;

Gold fluctuated for many of the last 5000 years, while FRNs in 2010 are worth 2% of what they were in 1913 ninety seven years earlier

What does that have to do with us here now for the rest of our lives?

A few pretend to have a crystal ball that works

The end of the world was advertised many times the last 5000 years

Gold was in yet another mania from $254 in 1999 to $1388 in 2010, echoing $105 in 1974 to 887 in 1980 and $20 in 1919 to $42.22 in 1973

The mean gold price for the last two centuries was $666 and prices can return to their mean

If they go parabolic like now, they can go below the mean

Now people who plunged closer to the top are waking up, some of them anyway

Soros said gold was in a bubble when he bought

Will he say it is undervalued when he sells?

How about John Paulson who just took hits on banks, or the Central Bankers?

Gold fluctuated many times in the last 5000 years, 1492 Conquistadores the most noteworthy example, but Napoleanic Wars, CA OZ discoveries, African Yukon gold, World War II and Vietnam War too, with Central Banks often selling when they should be buying and vice versa

Napolean bragged that he paid brandy, food and gold (loaned from the Rothschild Bank for an army that marches on its stomach)

Air America allegedly shipped gold for drugs, personnel and materiel during Vietnam

Gold may be right on target for this latest peak in 1998 dollars

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/600yeargold.gif

Human nature does not easily change

Most plunge near the top in greed and sell at the bottom in fear

In the 1980 peak, I saw people excitedly buy gold at premiums over $877 and sell despondently near lows over the next twenty years

In the 1987 Crash, people bought year-old Gold Eagles from $480 to $499.75 on the 19th of October to early December and watched them go down toward 395.40 a year later

Blanchard, at one time the world's largest gold coin dealer, acquired by my client at GE, turned bearish on gold at the 1999 bottom

Only those like GL and ZH Gold Bugs who thought Ben Bernake and Tim Geithner had stupid self-destructive urges for defenestration or piking themselves with runaway interest rates and cascading government defaults need apply

The Fed may end before its Century Birthday as Saxo Bank and others wish, peace may break out or the Treasury may default, I do not know if or when

But human nature does not change

Gold was a crowded trade almost a year, about the time those Gold Greed Ads started showing up at $1226.40 last December

Shall we agree to correspond cordially in a year to see how we did with our differing investment outlooks?

Cheers 

redrob25's picture

ATG,

 

Debt and money are flip sides of the same coin. As one goes up, the other will come down. That is the way of the Federal Reserve system.

 

So yes bubble assets like housing and stocks will crash (they have a ways to go yet), while money will hyperinflate and 'revalue', in dollars, true money in gold and silver. It will also drive up commodity prices.

 

This is why Tyler spends so much time documenting the fact that while retail investors are bailing out of stock market and corporate insiders are running for the doors as fast as their cockroach legs can take them, gold, silver, and other commodities bull markets continue. The money is just moving from one area to the other. Deflation in some assets, inflation in others, and currency hyperinflation eventually.

 

The middle class will get 'murdered' because they won't have figured out the game in time.

 

My book for reference:

http://www.amazon.com/Drop-Shadow-Economy-Economic-Collapse/dp/0578058243/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1288721192&sr=8-2

ATG's picture

rr

Popular overpriced diet and get rich quick books push expensive fads, then crash, burn their readers and sell for a buck on the bargain counter

Here are some previous top sellers from the 1980 gold peak:

    1. Crisis Investing: Opportunities and Profits in the Coming Great Depression, Douglas R. Casey

    3. Free to Choose: A Personal Statement, Milton and Rose Friedman

    6. The Sky's the Limit, Dr. Wayne W. Dyer

    7. The Third Wave, Alvin Toffler

    8. Craig Claiborne's Gourmet Diet, Craig Claiborne with Pierre Franey

    9. Nothing Down, Robert Allen

    10. How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years, Howard Ruff

    See a pattern?

    Every one of them was very popular and very wrong

    What goes up falls down

    Trees do not grow to the sky

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_deflation

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Mad...

    Good luck

 

caconhma's picture

(Reuters) - President Barack Obama said on Monday he should not have used the word "enemies" to describe his political opponents as Republicans sought to make an issue of the comment a day before congressional elections.

 

How soon will Marxist-comrade Obama start calling his opponents "enemies of people" and like his Jewish Bolsheviks predecessors in Russia start building concentration-extermination camps for American people?

 

Looks like "the war on terror" is about to move against fellow Americans. How soon will we have a second civil war in America?

goldfish1's picture

Probes ain't gonna like this:

Schwarzenegger bans welfare cards at psychics

Gov. Arnold Schwarzeneger says welfare recipients can no longer use state-issued debit cards at medical marijuana shops, psychics and other businesses whose services have been deemed "inconsistent with the intent" of the program.

fuu's picture

I see being bought by Oracle did nothing for your data integrity.

Rusty Shorts's picture

Yes, the U.S. is finished. The big global capital is moving to Asia and China. It's a rap here, the wealth extraction is complete, toast, done, stick a fork in it. Now, here in the west, there is no ROI...just fat slobs and pensioners, and un-funded liabilities.

 

During the entire existence of mankind, we have had only 4 economies;

1) Hunting and Gathering (100% food economy for 100,000 years)

2) Agriculture economy (10,000 years)

3) Manufacturing economy (200 years)

4) Service (30 years)

 

What's next? Unemployment and starvation, since we are not able to directly access food, even if we returned to Hunting/gathering, the land has been stripped, and even if we had prinstine hunting grounds, North America will only carry about 10 million top predators. Yes, man is one of the top predators on planet earth, like the Lion, can you imagine 7 Billion Lions roaming the earth, not going to happen...just not enough to go around.

DaveyJones's picture

guess it's clear which economy was the most self sustaining

Walter_Sobchak's picture

Civilization IS the problem.  Sooner or later we will realize that money cannot be eate and the only sensible way to live is in harmony with your environment as an animal.

TBT or not TBT's picture

If only those that lament the success of humanity would kindly exit the scene, you know, jump of this mortal coil under their own power, that would solve 25% to 50% of the "problem"  -I mean the problem as they see it- right there.   

Personally I'm pretty psyched about eating industrially produced animal protein, burning the shit outta those fossil fuels, enjoying jet travel to vacation settings, coal powered chairlifts to get us up to the top of gasoline power groomed ski slopes, and all of that.  

Hunting is just fine too but that is mainly a shopping and drinking and networking activity...Goretex, guns and scopes and special clothes, RVs, hunting leases you can bring your customers along to, "camping" shit, trophies for the wall, trading tall tales around the campfire, shooting and cutting up nature with your bare hands.   The Awesome...once or twice a year.

Rusty Shorts's picture

You are forced to accept civilization. Civilization is your only choice, you cannot choose to live off the grid, YOU ARE A CONSUMER, it's the law.

 

For example, if one decided that he would like to return to the land and live off of it, were does he go? A National Forest? BLM lands? Private lands?

A:

None of the Above.

 

You have NO CHOICE but to participate in the system which is set to incrementally drain your wealth and labor till the day you die, and if you have managed to accumulate any wealth, well, the system is set up to make sure that it is not passed to your children. Multi-generational wealth is against the law for citizens.

kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

i just made these same comments especially about ski areas. they put in big gondola that must consume a lot of energy to run up to the top of the mountain, three thousand feet up vertical. i am sure dick cheney had a lot to do with putting in the new huge replacement gondola at the HOLE, and a new chairlift to a restaurant. then fool the people with a green statement that they recycle. plus, aspen skiing company is owned privately by the crown family. so they don't serve blue fin tuna or a brazilian bass or something so they can claim green.

 

hunting season is just sick. do you know if you just purchased a hunting license in colorado you will be rescued for free if you are so dumb and get lost and found. no bill.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

can you imagine 7 Billion Lions roaming the earth, not going to happen...just not enough to go around.

 

"Lions in the street and roaming, dogs in heat, rabid, foaming -- a beast caged in the heart of the city." - Morrison

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Matthew 7:13 Enter ye in at the strait gate: for wide is the gate, and broad is the way, that leadeth to destruction, and many there be which go in thereat: 14 Because strait is the gate, and narrow is the way, which leadeth unto life, and few there be that find it

 

"The gate is straight, deep and wide. Break on through to the other side." - Morrison

Walter_Sobchak's picture

Jesus and Morrison were both ANTI-Civilization

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Please define your terms and provide citations to support your theses.

Thank you.

Walter_Sobchak's picture

How bout you start thinking and listening to what each had to say.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

How about you back up your claims with facts?

Walter_Sobchak's picture

It's an opinion. Show me how Jesus and Morrison were defenders of Civilization and Progress.  Jesus was rebelling against the tyrannical civilization of Rome, saying we should be like lambs and so forth.  Morrison's idol was Dionysus, the god of wine and revelry, who's festivals routinely devolved into riots which threatened Civilization, which is Appolonian in nature.  read some Nietszche.  READ ANYTHING-other than The Fountainhead.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Show me how Jesus and Morrison were defenders of Civilization and Progress.

 

I never claimed such a thing. You're the one with opinions which you can't be bothered to support beyond a few paltry observations.

BigJim's picture

I've heard good arguments for inflation, deflation, and biflation.

The problem is - the economy is not deterministic. It all depends on how people respond to stimuli, and especially depends on what the government does to try to influence things. And there is an almighty feedback loop between those things, plus black swans, unexpected supply shocks, etc.

Yes, M1+ is decreasing, and QE will do nothing about that. So, we can expect deflation in the prices of things we need credit to buy. But we're competing with expanding economies for commodities, and so we can expect higher prices for these things to result. Unless... the US people realise inflation is a real possibility, and the velocity of money picks up, in which case all that newly expanded base money ricochets around the banking system and the banking multiplier works its dark magic, and voila! true monetary inflation.

If foreigners decide the US dollar is toast, they'll ditch dollar holdings and US treasuries and hyperinflation will result.

And given the complete capture of government by the finance industries, and their requirement to stave off deflation, I can see the government doing everything it can to induce inflation, and it all getting out of hand.

To say that you definitely can determine what will happen from here takes more than knowledge and genius - it takes omniscience. That's what makes it all so exciting; we really can have no certainty how this will all play out. 

But I will hazard it's not looking too good for anyone who isn't a financial insider.

TBT or not TBT's picture

"The problem is - the economy is not deterministic. "

Yeah, somebody should start a hedge fund based on that thinking...call it the Quantum Fund or something.......then get in there jacking around not just with investments but also culture and politics and the media narrarative of what it all means!   You could make a lot of profit, OR if you are of that bent, just enjoy watching the world burn.   Can't think of a better way to ensure the latter than to destroy the constitution of the Unites States.

wake the roach's picture

There is no demand pull monetary inflation, period.

Rising commodity prices are being driven primarily by investor speculation based upon the perceived future expectation of demand pull monetary inflation within the real economy. Bubble economics 101. 

Oh sure, there is huge global demand for energy/commodities but demand and consumer ability to EXCHANGE VALUE for such (inflated) commodities are two completely different stories.  Until demand for credit within the real (worker/consumer) economy is rising (and is satisfied!) and thus re-inflating prices, and/or, the fed begins air dropping cash to the masses, speculative driven price increases in non-discretionary goods and services is further fueling the deflationary headwinds. 

It is credit that has fueled this global bubble and debt that cannot be repaid, will not be repaid. There is virtually nothing of monetary value today that is not carrying the scars of credit driven inflation. Everything is over valued (at least in nominal terms). The destruction of monetary credit units will outpace the best (hypothetical) attempt of central bankers to replace credit represented value with base monetary units.

Of course, given the scale of economic collapse we face, hyperinflation (loss of trust in exchange value) in fiat currency is a real possibility (timescale???) but its not a hand most people can afford to bet the farm on. Average Joe has virtually no understanding of the historical monetary value (trust) of pm's and as the overwhelming majority of the nations/worlds citizens do not own pm's, it is highly improbable that they will ever become a widely trusted medium of value exchange. Average Joe knows only one thing, cash is money. You cannot argue against stupidity so don't even try.

Ask yourself. Why would the monied elites of this world wish to sabotage the mechanism (cash) they are going to use to purchase credit inflated real assets for cents on the dollar? Just like they have done at the end of every other so called "debt cycle". Hold onto cash, we are deflating and beyond all control. If you have done everything within your means to become as self sufficient as possible and can afford to do so, only then should one invest in pm's.

Oh and remember, the fed is not liable for the losses of government creditors. They will exist long after the government is forced to default and so will their monopoly money.

ATG's picture

11 junks, but only one avatar willing to speak up

Says it all

GoinFawr's picture

Indeud: No junks yet for the avatar willing to speak up.

xPat's picture

Through early morning fog I see
visions of the things to be
the pains that are withheld for me
I realize and I can see...

[chorus]:

That suicide is painless
It brings on many changes
and I can take or leave it if I please.

I try to find a way to make
all our little joys relate
without that ever-present hate
but now I know that it's too late, and...

[Chorus]

The game of life is hard to play
I'm gonna lose it anyway
The losing card I'll someday lay
so this is all I have to say.

[Chorus]

The only way to win is cheat
And lay it down before I'm beat
and to another give my seat
for that's the only painless feat.

[Chorus]

MASH
The sword of time will pierce our skins
It doesn't hurt when it begins
But as it works its way on in
The pain grows stronger...watch it grin, but...

[Chorus]

A brave man once requested me
to answer questions that are key
'is it to be or not to be'
and I replied 'oh why ask me?'

'Cause suicide is painless
it brings on many changes
and I can take or leave it if I please.
...and you can do the same thing if you choose.

Bob's picture

Thanks. 

Easy to interpret it as an Anthem promoting withdrawal and suicide, but I think it more legitimately taken as a bracing, albeit exquisitely understated, wake up call. 

Pain is better than death.  The latter will make its call upon us all soon enough. 

ddtuttle's picture

True enough for all of us, but in combat, 'life' is a different thing. It's not clear that endless days of murdering your enemy to save your own life, while your friends are blown to bits is all that great. Remember MASH was really about Vietnam using the politically benign venue of Korea to make the point. My friends were getting shipped off and not coming back. For what?
Today, we are staring economic ruin in the eye, and a few of us will choose to take the easy way out. Remember that crazy but very funny video "Jump You F&*kers"?

Jim Quinn's picture

Lyrics were written by the 14 year old son of the director - Robert Altman.

Sudden Debt's picture

Suicide is Painless

YOU FIRST!

SheepDog-One's picture

Bernanke and the ruling elite have chosen inflation as the USA's suicide method.

MachoMan's picture

Duh.  The fed is a suicide machine...  credit is our drug and we have an insatiable demand for it.  Actually, it's not credit, it's dreaming of living beyond our means without having to do gutwrenching work all day...  credit is just the embodiment of those dreams.  Knowing this, once presented with the choice, it is only a matter of time before we suicide ourselves on the drug.  Our dealer, thinking ahead, has set up a nifty limited liability organization to limit potential risk posed by our death.  Through the years, he's been converting our drug money into hard assets and has enough now to "go straight" and engage in legitimate business...  rather, more accurately, to control a startling amount of of the survivors' productive capacity.

good plan.

PS, even if we survive, we're still a washed up/toothless/unemployable ex-junkie... 

Yorick7's picture

Yeah, then grab his watch and wallet.  Hope the author is wrong.