Guest Post: Sultans Of Swap: BP Potentially More Devastating than Lehman

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Gordon T. Long of Tipping Points

Sultans Of Swap: BP Potentially More Devastating than Lehman (pdf)

 

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Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I've been waiting for someone to do the research on the effects of a BP crash/bankruptcy. Thank you.

MarketTruth's picture

Amen, great work! Thank you for the article.

But Bernanke said this past week that "Everything is fine. Remain calm. All is well. ALL IS WELL!!"

www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro

Fish Gone Bad's picture

I read these articles and all I want to do is go out and buy more canned food.

Grappa's picture

Same here.

Been very scared for quite sometime now and this article really frightens me.

It seems that the only people who can enjoy life at the moment are psycho- and sociopaths that do not care. Only way to stop this is to stop it all and reset. This is the only reason I would like to believe in 2012. Just so the cataclysm that scatters our (i.e. humanitys) ashes into the wind is not my neighbors and brothers, but something from the outside.

It seems that we cannot gather enough people to force the gov hand to do the right things and it also seems like there are no options. It's a lose-lose in any case. When we finally have enough people then it's way way too late.

It was fun to be born here and only see the destruction of my family and mankind. Although, if the SHTF really hard like it seems, one could see it also as a priviledge to see something HUGE that no other generations has ever witnessed and if/hopefully when some of us survive will never see again. (<- said about WW1 and WW2 as well and look what happened).

 

Noah Vail's picture

The world's worst environmental disaster? I suggest you come down here and see it for yourself. I live only 120 miles from that well and we only have a smattering of oil blobs on our beach. What this really is is the world's most over-hyped incident in world history.

 

There is more bullshit in the media than there is oil on the shore. Before you do something stupid, try doing your due dilligence first.

I now return  control of the propaganda machine back to the establishment. Feel free to tell my I am full of shit, but hey, its your money.

Muir's picture

Archie Bunker: That ain't the American Way, buddy. No, siree. Listen here, professor. You're the one who need an American History lesson. You don't know nothin' about Lady Liberty standin' there in the harbor, with her torch on high screamin' out to all the nations in the world: "Send me your poor, your deadbeats, your filthy." And all the nations send 'em in here, they come swarming in like ants. Your Spanish P.R.'s from the Caribboin, your Japs, your Chinamen, your Krauts and your Hebes and your English fags. All of 'em come in here and they're all free to live in their own separate sections where they feel safe. And they'll bust your head if you go in there. *That's* what makes America great, buddy.

Chump's picture

"Feel free to tell my I am full of shit..."

OK...you're full of shit.  NOAA has techs working 12 hour shifts, round the clock, who are stationed in LA solely to relay coordinates of found plumes on to other divisions and orgs.  So you viewing your little strip of beach and seeing "a smattering" of oil blobs is tantamount to judging a home's fire damage by examining the mailbox.  "Just a few ashes here.  They should be good to move back in tomorrow."

This shit is super serial, and you're just being a chucklehead.

Noah Vail's picture

The world's worst environmental disaster? I suggest you come down here and see it for yourself. I live only 120 miles from that well and we only have a smattering of oil blobs on our beach. What this really is is the world's most over-hyped incident in world history.

 

There is more bullshit in the media than there is oil on the shore. Before you do something stupid, try doing your due dilligence first.

I now return  control of the propaganda machine back to the establishment. Feel free to tell my I am full of shit, but hey, its your money.

Muir's picture

Archie Bunker: Well, let me tell you one thing about Richard E. Nixon. He knows how to keep his wife, Pat, home. Roosevelt could never do that with Eleanor. She was always out on the loose. Running around with the coloreds. Tellin' 'em they was gettin' the short end of the stick. She was the one who discovered the coloreds in this country; we never knew they was there!

thesapein's picture

Oh, it's but a flesh wound...

So you can actually see the oil washing up on your beaches? To me, that's bad. Most of it is diluted and still below the surface, and it's probably not all coming straight to you. Aren't you a bit concerned about what is not most apparent to the naked eye?

Sancho Ponzi's picture

CD: Shhhh! You said: 'ZH has been solid since they upgraded hardware over the weekend.'

and the site goes down, like clockwork 

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LOL

I'm the kiss of death. Wanna neck in the back seat? :>)

Sancho Ponzi's picture

Only if it's a quick death. I'm not a big fan of the hang-on, lingering, slow corporial decay death thingy. That's what central banks are for ;)

I need more asshats's picture

Talking the ZH book.

TBTF period.

carbonmutant's picture

 I know a lot of ZHers have been fantasizing about a BP bankruptcy but if they go bankrupt whose going to plug "The Hole"... and not just the on in the GOM.

I need more asshats's picture

The phone rings in the White House.

Queen: "This is the Queen".

Pawn: "Well hello your hi-nass".

Queen: "BP is too big to fail and you will be Knight'ed".

Pawn: "Done".

Queen to Pawn 1, checkmate for the shorties.

Crummy's picture

Jeez, there's no hole, it's like they collapsed 20 years ago and no one noticed because the checks kept coming in the mail.
I bet they have literally sold the entire world's supply of oil three times over. Good luck on getting that delivery, Earthlings.

ZackAttack's picture

This kind of propaganda is a corporate false flag, angling for a bailout. They've tried hiding the problem, minimizing it, preventing media access, invoking the poor Scottish Widows and Orphans, and now they're playing the corporate equivalent of The Race Card, TBTF.

Everyone involved has had since April 20th to square their positions, so this problem falls under the rubric of 'tough shit, morons.' Because these fuckwads have to die.

 

SWRichmond's picture

Yeah, either it's angling for a bailout or it's more evidence that TBTF must come to mean to big to exist.  Or perhaps, that TBTF really isn't possible without political support anyway, therefore all we need to do to stop it is stop the political support.  TBTF is a political-only concept.

jesusfreakinco's picture

IMO this is just part of their disinformation campaign keeping this from sinking further - allowing the big boys to unload their shares on unsuspecting retail investors.  Things are much worse than I believe they care to admit.  BOP tilting, casing may be damaged where they are trying to drill the relief well.

Why hasn't there been any MSM coverage of this news?  To me this is a game changer...

http://industry.bnet.com/energy/10005034/apocalypse-in-the-gulf-could-a-...
JuicyTheAnimal's picture

Obama has already said something to the tune of:   BP is to big to fail and we won't let them fail no matter how much damage this oil leak thingy does to the country, the world.  Besides, we don't have many friends left so we can't have England mad at us. 

 

 

ex VRWC's picture

The comment attributed to Jim Sinclair that keeps getting cited in these articles actually initiated with his reader CIGA Pedro, apparently some kind of expert in energy according to Jim.

 

http://jsmineset.com/2010/06/22/jims-mailbox-470/

traderjoe's picture

There's no way a company can deal with the hundreds of thousands of claims that will come in the next few decades without the benefit of having the speed and brevity of the BK court. There will be a "Gull Oil Syndrome" - with a list of difficult to verify symptoms (I do also think the health impacts will be huge). But, as we've seen before, Gov will do something/anything to avoid the learning of the Derivative lessons, that we've had since Bear to learn... 

Rebel's picture

Yes, and it is hard to imagine all the possible claims. Consider the oil dispersants, and drilling mud they have poured into the gulf. Consider that these are made up of a wide variety of different chemicals. Somewhere in there, you are likely to find some chemical(s) associated with birth defects. Every birth defect in the Southeast US in the next 20 years could have a claim against BP. Every failed real estate deal. Every reduction in property values. One can only imagine all the creative ways lawyers will organize class action lawsuits. This is the new Mesothelioma, only worse. This is > (Breast Implants X Asbestos X Tobacco )^2 

septicshock's picture

Everything is fine.  There is no spill.  We didn't destroy our whole ecological system.  BP will stop the tiny leak.  August for sure.  Credit fairy is real.  Dollar has value.  Stocks are just in a natural correction on the phase to recovery.  Gold is just a commodity.  The government has our best interest at heart.  Helicopter Ben is all knowing.  Alan Greenspan told me that everything is fine.  Everything is fine.  Everything is fine.  

pan-the-ist's picture

Why is Gold getting nuked today?

FranSix's picture

In a sort of talismanic ritual to an anticipated decline in short term rates, gold gets sold.  And we are so near zero in the discount rate, that the derivatives can drive rates into the negative.

But look! The Yuan etf so heavily advertised on CNBC has a large black candle followed by a hammer.  Some sort of wierd-looking morningstar that is.  Call it a black swan just for shits and giggles.

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CYB&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p15488071547&a=20286...

Muir's picture

Why would gold be up if deflation really does come to pass?

packman's picture

Same reason any company's stock can be up during a bad quarter.  Time horizons and expectations.

If we have deflation - do you really think it will last forever?

Muir's picture

"If we have deflation - do you really think it will last forever?"

packman, that sentence makes about as much sense as:

Archie: Well, you know what they say, Edith. Birds gotta fly, fish gotta fry.
Edith: Swim.
Archie: That too.

If you are arguing for inflation, then by all means, gold at $5000+

On the hand, if you are arguing for deflation (as were the comments that I was replying to) then gold at $500/ounce makes sense, not the mystical "my precious...."

FranSix's picture

Why would bond prices be up?

Muir's picture

Ahhh..., because yields are down?!

Was that a trick question?

Ripped Chunk's picture

Worldwide central bank intervention

Greyzone's picture

Flight to Euros to cover liquidity needs for Euro banks. Did you miss this earlier on ZH?

EUR Surging As Banks Scramble To Cover Liquidity Needs With 30 Day Euro Repos Hitting One Year Highs

That action appears, to me, to be driving several other trends today as well. I could be wrong, of course, but that appears to be the driver today, in my opinion.

New_Meat's picture

Its Second Chakra needed release - Ned.

John McCloy's picture

Tim said otherwise though. 

FranSix's picture

No small irony that Enron, an energy trader, was one of the major failures during the Nasdaq crash.  So too, do we have tales of a drunken energy trader spiking the price of oil on the heels of the BP oil pollution disaster.

Quite the replay.  Lets' see.  We need some blackouts.

Clampit's picture

But I was told by a guy driving an Aston Martin in a Canali suit that OTC derivatives net out and thus won't cause a problem ...

Greyzone's picture

That is only true if all the players can cover their worst case derivatives scenario. Lehman, anyone? AIG maybe? That's what happens when a derivatives player doesn't have the cash or assets to cover their bets. And given that most of the players in that market can't cover their asses either, that makes the entire thing a pile of fraud just waiting to go boom.

Cheeky Bastard's picture

What tha fuck man; the der. cost associated with LEH was 8B.

sgt_doom's picture

Sorry, but I must call total and complete Bullshit on this post.

It was anticipated that a major misinformation/disinformation campaign would be started for the "essential bailout" of BP (go figure???).

Of course, BP like their fellow financiers of the InterContinental Exchange (ICE), ICE Futures, ICE Clear, ICE Europe, ICE US Trust (their new clearinghouse for swaps), etc., etc., etc. (those fellow financiers would be Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Royal Dutch/Shell, et al., BTW) from whence they do all that highly leveraged speculation on oil futures, energy futures, precious metals futures, soft commodities futures (and let us not forget those chemicals involved in the refinery process which they also speculate on) will make the case they should be "saved."

Hell, let them find Jesus or Mohammed or Bozo the Clown, and be saved by one of them, but keep their grubby hands off all the debt which will have to be sold to pay for their bonuses and private jets -- then once again placed in the public domain to turn the rest of us into serfs.

Yet another reason why BP refused to come clean with all the facts, and why that "relief well" now being drilled will most likely fail to halt this epic ecological catastrophe.

In the real world, if BP goes under, the whittling down of highly leveraged speculation on those exchanges -- they own -- should bring down the price of oil, gas, energy expenditures in general, soft commodities, precious metals, refining, etc., etc., etc.

Now that's the straight stuff on the matter.

Ripped Chunk's picture

I bet on Bozo, you want a piece?

robobbob's picture

Do you have a source for the ICE funding and stockholders? I couldn't get past the top layer- TRowe, Vanguard, Sands, BP. Who is pulling the strings? And why would they put out $600M for Chicago Climate Exchange when the CO2 tax isn't a done deal yet?

sgt_doom's picture

Gee whiz, robobbo, there's this nifty thing called "Google" -- you may wish to learn its use.

Also, you are waaaaay behind the eightball if you think it's simply the Chicago Climate Exchange, dood.

They financed and own the Climate Exchange, PLC, registered in the Isle of Man, which in turn is the senior holding company which owns ALL the other climate exchanges. (Ya know, the US isn't the only country on the planet; they've been doing this awhile, and trading on exchanges, over in the Eurozone, dood.)

Catch a clue, dood.  (My days of providing sources and links to everyone on the planet is so over.  You should be adult enough by this time to no longer demand everyone spoonfeed you --- it should be enought that I coded the original hyperlink which made it onto the Web in the markup language, dood!!!!)

robobbob's picture

Dude, theres like this internet thingy, like where when one person posts some info, like everyone on earth gets to like share in it, so like everyone isn't always on their own reinventing the wheel everytime they do something. I'm well aware of CE plc being set up on the Isle of Man by Richard Vanderplank. It was backed by Blackrock, Fidelity, Ontario Teachers Union. Sandor, Eckert, ran it. They were in competition with Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change, who the BBC pension fund just happened to invest a couple of billion. What a surprise BBC is all in on CO2 taxes. ICE bought up the International Petroleum Exchange and was backed by Royal Dutch Shell, Amoco, Duke Energy, BP, Total Fina, El Paso Energy, Goldman, Deutsche Bank, T Rowe Price, and have now bought up CCE

Now I was of the foolish assumption that this was an information exchange site for US verses Them in a crusade to end corruption and exploitation by the PTB. With the exception of a the few paid ZH blogger/contributors, I thought information was for sharing rather than for selfish self important hoarding. I myself am always happy to provide links to support any of my positions, help people expand their knowledge, or evaluate alternate opinions.

My interest is not directly in BP and their world of shell game finance, but in carbon trading. I do not see any links in your post. Now what I was asking was, do you have any sites or links with current information on the financial backers of the latest fraud against humanity known as CO2 trading? Do you want to answer and help build the resistance, or do you just want to be snotty and condescending?

ZackAttack's picture

+1000

Absoutely. It is an all-out PR assault at this point because the facts of the matter have dealt BP a very, very bad hand.

They are so fucked if anything ever goes in front of a jury.  

 

exportbank's picture

Life will become very interesting for the counter-parties to those derivatives. I heard that AIG was carrying some insurance for BP - I wonder if they also are the counter-party to some derivatives - I guess that black hole would then simply swallow the American taxpayer who is the beneficial owner of AIG. What a show this could turn into. It would be a tragedy if the USA (Too big to fail) had to simply ask Ben and Tim to write that check.

ZackAttack's picture

My understanding is that AIG's exposure is to Cameron International, manufacturer of the BoP.

BP is supposedly self-insured. IOW, fucked.

 

jesusfreakinco's picture
Apocalypse in the Gulf: Could a Sinkhole Swallow the Deepwater Horizon Well -- And BP?

This could be a gamechanger IMO.  If the BOP falls over before the relief well is done, all @#!*% could/will break loose.  IMO BP files within 48 hours of that happening in order to manage their liability risks.  Any thoughts?

 

http://industry.bnet.com/energy/10005034/apocalypse-in-the-gulf-could-a-...