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Guest Post: Sultans Of Swap: BP Potentially More Devastating than Lehman
Submitted by Gordon T. Long of Tipping Points
Sultans Of Swap: BP Potentially More Devastating than Lehman (pdf)
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I've been waiting for someone to do the research on the effects of a BP crash/bankruptcy. Thank you.
Amen, great work! Thank you for the article.
But Bernanke said this past week that "Everything is fine. Remain calm. All is well. ALL IS WELL!!"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro
I read these articles and all I want to do is go out and buy more canned food.
Same here.
Been very scared for quite sometime now and this article really frightens me.
It seems that the only people who can enjoy life at the moment are psycho- and sociopaths that do not care. Only way to stop this is to stop it all and reset. This is the only reason I would like to believe in 2012. Just so the cataclysm that scatters our (i.e. humanitys) ashes into the wind is not my neighbors and brothers, but something from the outside.
It seems that we cannot gather enough people to force the gov hand to do the right things and it also seems like there are no options. It's a lose-lose in any case. When we finally have enough people then it's way way too late.
It was fun to be born here and only see the destruction of my family and mankind. Although, if the SHTF really hard like it seems, one could see it also as a priviledge to see something HUGE that no other generations has ever witnessed and if/hopefully when some of us survive will never see again. (<- said about WW1 and WW2 as well and look what happened).
The world's worst environmental disaster? I suggest you come down here and see it for yourself. I live only 120 miles from that well and we only have a smattering of oil blobs on our beach. What this really is is the world's most over-hyped incident in world history.
There is more bullshit in the media than there is oil on the shore. Before you do something stupid, try doing your due dilligence first.
I now return control of the propaganda machine back to the establishment. Feel free to tell my I am full of shit, but hey, its your money.
Archie Bunker: That ain't the American Way, buddy. No, siree. Listen here, professor. You're the one who need an American History lesson. You don't know nothin' about Lady Liberty standin' there in the harbor, with her torch on high screamin' out to all the nations in the world: "Send me your poor, your deadbeats, your filthy." And all the nations send 'em in here, they come swarming in like ants. Your Spanish P.R.'s from the Caribboin, your Japs, your Chinamen, your Krauts and your Hebes and your English fags. All of 'em come in here and they're all free to live in their own separate sections where they feel safe. And they'll bust your head if you go in there. *That's* what makes America great, buddy.
"Feel free to tell my I am full of shit..."
OK...you're full of shit. NOAA has techs working 12 hour shifts, round the clock, who are stationed in LA solely to relay coordinates of found plumes on to other divisions and orgs. So you viewing your little strip of beach and seeing "a smattering" of oil blobs is tantamount to judging a home's fire damage by examining the mailbox. "Just a few ashes here. They should be good to move back in tomorrow."
This shit is super serial, and you're just being a chucklehead.
The world's worst environmental disaster? I suggest you come down here and see it for yourself. I live only 120 miles from that well and we only have a smattering of oil blobs on our beach. What this really is is the world's most over-hyped incident in world history.
There is more bullshit in the media than there is oil on the shore. Before you do something stupid, try doing your due dilligence first.
I now return control of the propaganda machine back to the establishment. Feel free to tell my I am full of shit, but hey, its your money.
Archie Bunker: Well, let me tell you one thing about Richard E. Nixon. He knows how to keep his wife, Pat, home. Roosevelt could never do that with Eleanor. She was always out on the loose. Running around with the coloreds. Tellin' 'em they was gettin' the short end of the stick. She was the one who discovered the coloreds in this country; we never knew they was there!
Oh, it's but a flesh wound...
So you can actually see the oil washing up on your beaches? To me, that's bad. Most of it is diluted and still below the surface, and it's probably not all coming straight to you. Aren't you a bit concerned about what is not most apparent to the naked eye?
CD: Shhhh! You said: 'ZH has been solid since they upgraded hardware over the weekend.'
and the site goes down, like clockwork
LOL
I'm the kiss of death. Wanna neck in the back seat? :>)
Only if it's a quick death. I'm not a big fan of the hang-on, lingering, slow corporial decay death thingy. That's what central banks are for ;)
Talking the ZH book.
TBTF period.
I know a lot of ZHers have been fantasizing about a BP bankruptcy but if they go bankrupt whose going to plug "The Hole"... and not just the on in the GOM.
The phone rings in the White House.
Queen: "This is the Queen".
Pawn: "Well hello your hi-nass".
Queen: "BP is too big to fail and you will be Knight'ed".
Pawn: "Done".
Queen to Pawn 1, checkmate for the shorties.
Jeez, there's no hole, it's like they collapsed 20 years ago and no one noticed because the checks kept coming in the mail.
I bet they have literally sold the entire world's supply of oil three times over. Good luck on getting that delivery, Earthlings.
This kind of propaganda is a corporate false flag, angling for a bailout. They've tried hiding the problem, minimizing it, preventing media access, invoking the poor Scottish Widows and Orphans, and now they're playing the corporate equivalent of The Race Card, TBTF.
Everyone involved has had since April 20th to square their positions, so this problem falls under the rubric of 'tough shit, morons.' Because these fuckwads have to die.
Yeah, either it's angling for a bailout or it's more evidence that TBTF must come to mean to big to exist. Or perhaps, that TBTF really isn't possible without political support anyway, therefore all we need to do to stop it is stop the political support. TBTF is a political-only concept.
+100,000
IMO this is just part of their disinformation campaign keeping this from sinking further - allowing the big boys to unload their shares on unsuspecting retail investors. Things are much worse than I believe they care to admit. BOP tilting, casing may be damaged where they are trying to drill the relief well.
Why hasn't there been any MSM coverage of this news? To me this is a game changer...
http://industry.bnet.com/energy/10005034/apocalypse-in-the-gulf-could-a-...Obama has already said something to the tune of: BP is to big to fail and we won't let them fail no matter how much damage this oil leak thingy does to the country, the world. Besides, we don't have many friends left so we can't have England mad at us.
The comment attributed to Jim Sinclair that keeps getting cited in these articles actually initiated with his reader CIGA Pedro, apparently some kind of expert in energy according to Jim.
http://jsmineset.com/2010/06/22/jims-mailbox-470/
There's no way a company can deal with the hundreds of thousands of claims that will come in the next few decades without the benefit of having the speed and brevity of the BK court. There will be a "Gull Oil Syndrome" - with a list of difficult to verify symptoms (I do also think the health impacts will be huge). But, as we've seen before, Gov will do something/anything to avoid the learning of the Derivative lessons, that we've had since Bear to learn...
Yes, and it is hard to imagine all the possible claims. Consider the oil dispersants, and drilling mud they have poured into the gulf. Consider that these are made up of a wide variety of different chemicals. Somewhere in there, you are likely to find some chemical(s) associated with birth defects. Every birth defect in the Southeast US in the next 20 years could have a claim against BP. Every failed real estate deal. Every reduction in property values. One can only imagine all the creative ways lawyers will organize class action lawsuits. This is the new Mesothelioma, only worse. This is > (Breast Implants X Asbestos X Tobacco )^2
Everything is fine. There is no spill. We didn't destroy our whole ecological system. BP will stop the tiny leak. August for sure. Credit fairy is real. Dollar has value. Stocks are just in a natural correction on the phase to recovery. Gold is just a commodity. The government has our best interest at heart. Helicopter Ben is all knowing. Alan Greenspan told me that everything is fine. Everything is fine. Everything is fine.
Why is Gold getting nuked today?
In a sort of talismanic ritual to an anticipated decline in short term rates, gold gets sold. And we are so near zero in the discount rate, that the derivatives can drive rates into the negative.
But look! The Yuan etf so heavily advertised on CNBC has a large black candle followed by a hammer. Some sort of wierd-looking morningstar that is. Call it a black swan just for shits and giggles.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CYB&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p15488071547&a=20286...
Why would gold be up if deflation really does come to pass?
Same reason any company's stock can be up during a bad quarter. Time horizons and expectations.
If we have deflation - do you really think it will last forever?
"If we have deflation - do you really think it will last forever?"
packman, that sentence makes about as much sense as:
Archie: Well, you know what they say, Edith. Birds gotta fly, fish gotta fry.
Edith: Swim.
Archie: That too.
If you are arguing for inflation, then by all means, gold at $5000+
On the hand, if you are arguing for deflation (as were the comments that I was replying to) then gold at $500/ounce makes sense, not the mystical "my precious...."
Why would bond prices be up?
Ahhh..., because yields are down?!
Was that a trick question?
Worldwide central bank intervention
Flight to Euros to cover liquidity needs for Euro banks. Did you miss this earlier on ZH?
EUR Surging As Banks Scramble To Cover Liquidity Needs With 30 Day Euro Repos Hitting One Year Highs
That action appears, to me, to be driving several other trends today as well. I could be wrong, of course, but that appears to be the driver today, in my opinion.
Its Second Chakra needed release - Ned.
Tim said otherwise though.
No small irony that Enron, an energy trader, was one of the major failures during the Nasdaq crash. So too, do we have tales of a drunken energy trader spiking the price of oil on the heels of the BP oil pollution disaster.
Quite the replay. Lets' see. We need some blackouts.
But I was told by a guy driving an Aston Martin in a Canali suit that OTC derivatives net out and thus won't cause a problem ...
That is only true if all the players can cover their worst case derivatives scenario. Lehman, anyone? AIG maybe? That's what happens when a derivatives player doesn't have the cash or assets to cover their bets. And given that most of the players in that market can't cover their asses either, that makes the entire thing a pile of fraud just waiting to go boom.
What tha fuck man; the der. cost associated with LEH was 8B.
Sorry, but I must call total and complete Bullshit on this post.
It was anticipated that a major misinformation/disinformation campaign would be started for the "essential bailout" of BP (go figure???).
Of course, BP like their fellow financiers of the InterContinental Exchange (ICE), ICE Futures, ICE Clear, ICE Europe, ICE US Trust (their new clearinghouse for swaps), etc., etc., etc. (those fellow financiers would be Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Royal Dutch/Shell, et al., BTW) from whence they do all that highly leveraged speculation on oil futures, energy futures, precious metals futures, soft commodities futures (and let us not forget those chemicals involved in the refinery process which they also speculate on) will make the case they should be "saved."
Hell, let them find Jesus or Mohammed or Bozo the Clown, and be saved by one of them, but keep their grubby hands off all the debt which will have to be sold to pay for their bonuses and private jets -- then once again placed in the public domain to turn the rest of us into serfs.
Yet another reason why BP refused to come clean with all the facts, and why that "relief well" now being drilled will most likely fail to halt this epic ecological catastrophe.
In the real world, if BP goes under, the whittling down of highly leveraged speculation on those exchanges -- they own -- should bring down the price of oil, gas, energy expenditures in general, soft commodities, precious metals, refining, etc., etc., etc.
Now that's the straight stuff on the matter.
I bet on Bozo, you want a piece?
Do you have a source for the ICE funding and stockholders? I couldn't get past the top layer- TRowe, Vanguard, Sands, BP. Who is pulling the strings? And why would they put out $600M for Chicago Climate Exchange when the CO2 tax isn't a done deal yet?
Gee whiz, robobbo, there's this nifty thing called "Google" -- you may wish to learn its use.
Also, you are waaaaay behind the eightball if you think it's simply the Chicago Climate Exchange, dood.
They financed and own the Climate Exchange, PLC, registered in the Isle of Man, which in turn is the senior holding company which owns ALL the other climate exchanges. (Ya know, the US isn't the only country on the planet; they've been doing this awhile, and trading on exchanges, over in the Eurozone, dood.)
Catch a clue, dood. (My days of providing sources and links to everyone on the planet is so over. You should be adult enough by this time to no longer demand everyone spoonfeed you --- it should be enought that I coded the original hyperlink which made it onto the Web in the markup language, dood!!!!)
Dude, theres like this internet thingy, like where when one person posts some info, like everyone on earth gets to like share in it, so like everyone isn't always on their own reinventing the wheel everytime they do something. I'm well aware of CE plc being set up on the Isle of Man by Richard Vanderplank. It was backed by Blackrock, Fidelity, Ontario Teachers Union. Sandor, Eckert, ran it. They were in competition with Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change, who the BBC pension fund just happened to invest a couple of billion. What a surprise BBC is all in on CO2 taxes. ICE bought up the International Petroleum Exchange and was backed by Royal Dutch Shell, Amoco, Duke Energy, BP, Total Fina, El Paso Energy, Goldman, Deutsche Bank, T Rowe Price, and have now bought up CCE
Now I was of the foolish assumption that this was an information exchange site for US verses Them in a crusade to end corruption and exploitation by the PTB. With the exception of a the few paid ZH blogger/contributors, I thought information was for sharing rather than for selfish self important hoarding. I myself am always happy to provide links to support any of my positions, help people expand their knowledge, or evaluate alternate opinions.
My interest is not directly in BP and their world of shell game finance, but in carbon trading. I do not see any links in your post. Now what I was asking was, do you have any sites or links with current information on the financial backers of the latest fraud against humanity known as CO2 trading? Do you want to answer and help build the resistance, or do you just want to be snotty and condescending?
+1000
Absoutely. It is an all-out PR assault at this point because the facts of the matter have dealt BP a very, very bad hand.
They are so fucked if anything ever goes in front of a jury.
Life will become very interesting for the counter-parties to those derivatives. I heard that AIG was carrying some insurance for BP - I wonder if they also are the counter-party to some derivatives - I guess that black hole would then simply swallow the American taxpayer who is the beneficial owner of AIG. What a show this could turn into. It would be a tragedy if the USA (Too big to fail) had to simply ask Ben and Tim to write that check.
My understanding is that AIG's exposure is to Cameron International, manufacturer of the BoP.
BP is supposedly self-insured. IOW, fucked.
This could be a gamechanger IMO. If the BOP falls over before the relief well is done, all @#!*% could/will break loose. IMO BP files within 48 hours of that happening in order to manage their liability risks. Any thoughts?
http://industry.bnet.com/energy/10005034/apocalypse-in-the-gulf-could-a-...Saw this as well. It will either self seal or
many millions of barrels more to go.
Seems credible.
Shit
I believe the BOP is irrelevant at this point. The intent of the relief wells is to plug the hole from the bottom - independent of the BOP.
The way I understand it the lower casing is substandard and cracked. That is why one can see leaks from nearby fissures in the sea floor.
This makes even a side entry into the cased hole a no go.
I smell BULLSHIT !
Matt Simmons said in interview on Monday that the actual full blown blowout is 10 miles away from the BOP and probably the only possible way of sealing it by the rooski nuke method. If true, the hope for GOM residents is that Simmons is found to be a paranoid evil lunatic...
Bang, bang, bang, down you go.
What would one expect with a from a nation with this track record?
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Rome_Statute_of_the_Inter...
Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court
As of October 2009, 110 countries have ratified or acceded to the Rome Statute, including all of South America, most of Europe, and roughly half the countries in Africa.[2][11]
A further 38 states have signed but not ratified the treaty;[2] the law of treaties obliges these states to refrain from “acts which would defeat the object and purpose” of the treaty.[12] Three of these states — Israel, Sudan and the United States — have withdrawn their signatures, indicating that they no longer intend to become states parties and, as such, they have no legal obligations arising from their signature of the statute
You want to see mass strike and violence worse than Greece, let BP file bankruptcy, it will awaken the sleeping giant. I am sure then the admin will consider banning/writing off CDS and Glass Steagal.
And
CNN: Almost All Exxon Valdez Cleanup Crew Dead!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRrbqBEGxiw
It is reasonable to assume that there have been many such leaks throughout the Earth's history. There is a bacteria that given time will consume all the oil leaked out. Nature itself will handle.
Corexit is the real problem. It sweeps everything under the carpet, causing possibly the destruction of the micro organisms (as well as all other forms of life) that will feed off the spill itself.
LEHMAN imploded from a solvency issue. while the entire banking system collapsed. BP is will continue to pump oil out of the ground , making massive ammounts of money while the american legal system tries to make BP resemble an asbestos victim. more likley it will have ended as a tobacco company. paying ridiculous amounts of money to close the case and go on with business as usual.
they are still selling oil and we are still buying and burning it. that's not going to change because of a single spill.
The cash on hand will be depleted rather quickly if the relief well does not work.
At that point BP is done as far as what they can do and they will either have to be backstopped or file. Let me see you are basically after a few years of having oil just about everywhere up on down the Gulf and the Atlantic. BP would be an easy zero.
Oh, it's not a spill at all.
And don't forget how many refineries BP owns or is partnered with.
The price of fuel/resin/byproducts will rise to meet their obligations as a result of the GOM disaster.
Real price inflation is what Uncle Ben wants. It's all part of the bigger plan my friends. Get tuned in.
The litigants, lawyers, taxers, and system wins. The people pay this alternative tax at the pumps and in their everyday consumption. Yea!
Without credit creation you are not going to get inflation, sorry, except in very short bursts.
You can try the ole take the grain out at sea and dump scheme like they tried last time in Europe, it didn't work at all.
This article lays out the solvency concerns. It is worth the read for those interested in the possibility of contagion beyond BP. It all comes down to the relief well(s) and whether the BOP doesn't collapse. If the BOP collapses or the first relief well fails, IMO, BP USA will be put in Ch 11 (or worse all of BP) and the legal games will have begun. Hold on to your hats...
Under the Barney Dodd legislation, the council of elders will have to meet to decide if BP is a systemic threat. If so BP will be notified and will be entitled to appeal. One year later, assuming BP loses it's appeal, BP will be asked to prepare a study of how best to unwind itself and informing the council what they should be worrying about. The council then has the obligation to publish the results for public comment. If the Secretary of the Treasury...
Does this make you feel better?
:)
BP is a zero if the relief well does not work by September area. The UK will have to backstop the loses. Of course, if the UK backstops it... you are talking years to even have a chance to correct this, if it is even possible. You are talking trillions not billions.
Bill to the UK will be in the trillions.
"Bill to the UK will be in the trillions."
It's all good. Iceland owes them a hunk a change. It'll come out in the wash, so to speak.
Yes, I agree I doubt it will ever come to that.... the clock is ticking on the system.
And it will explicitly exclude the return of the bronze bust of Winston Churchill.
- Ned
BP used to be "British Petroleum". It is now no longer exclusively British, and the "B" part is just part of a brand name. It is a multi-national company and quoted on the NYSE.
It has found support (on the chart) after a drop of 50%. If you failed to short it, look for a rally to the 45 area (50% retracement)
There will/should be blood (and possibly some milkshakes too).
Mid-July or mid-August, during the dark phase of the new moon, Israel will attack Iran. Iran will attack everybody it can reach, especially Saudi ( and a few stray US carriers). Oil goes to $500/barrel, and China buys it all. Voila - BP is solvent again. I'm buying the farthest out of the money DBO, USO and STO October calls, turning off the TV, and tending my garden. Cherokee Purple tomatoes - Yum!
I am also now eating tomatoes from my garden. Fresh!
Pick...rinse...eat!
But do you have chickens yet? I just gathered the eggs, and had a nice omelet for lunch.
I'm dring a gimlet made with potato-vodka I just pulled from the still. Harvested the potatos for the mash a few weeks ago. Made the ice cubes myself as well.
I'm dring a gimlet made with potato-vodka I just pulled from the still. Harvested the potatos for the mash a few weeks ago. Made the ice cubes myself as well.
k, all you posters on this thread "branch" make me smile. . .
/toasts Misean, et al.
My tomatoes are turning out especially good this year, been eating them the last 2 weeks. I never plant enough banana peppers... love those things.
Unfortunately, I'm having a terrible tomato year. Root knot nematodes.
That's the spirit.
Press TV reported yesterday that both BP and Hayward sold lots of shares one month before explosion. Hayward enough to pay off the mortgage on his mansion.
how can this bullshit still be wlowed to happen
if a company failing like lehman caused the collapse because of CDOs then why were CDo's not banned there after?
How can this bullshit be allowed to happen.....Tomatoes here will be ripe in September, one week before the first big frost
Move further south....
Anyone who invests or does business with a company that accounts for 99.87% of the egregious wilful OSHA safety citations but only 1.93% of the serious citations and 1.16% of other OSHA citations deserves to go bankrupt. The more such nonsense I see, the more I think it's time to bring back the banks whose owners bear unlimited responsibility for their banks. If you give horrible people horrible incentives, then horrible people will do horrible things.
Tyler why do the links in the PDF not work? Can you get this fixed?
This paper is not worth the e-paper it's written on, and sadly it cannot be used for hygienic purposes either.
Subpar insight and argumentation worthy of cnbc maybe, but not a link on zero-hedge.
My kids loved the nice drawings though.
Complete waste of valuable Canada day time.
We continue to see that more and more large firms and too big to fail in today's terms, it appears that this is more due to the OTC derivatives markets more than anything and that essentially if you take down any player, the house charade collpases. Conclusion is that we obviously need to seriously reduce the size of this market and/or get rid of it altogether before it brings out country to its knees. And for those who differ, many companies may not like it and it may hurt profits (oh no!!!), but without it our country is a ticking time-bomb.
Is it not time to drop the 'british petroleum' tag?
Certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration. Thanks windows vps | cheap vps | cheap hosting | forex vps