• Sprott Money
    04/29/2016 - 05:58
    There is unfortunately no basis for renewed optimism that this current litigation will have any meaningful impact on precious metals manipulation – with respect to either silver or gold.

Guest Post: A Technical Look At Treasuries - Room For Optimism

Tyler Durden's picture

Your rating: None

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 11:02 | 216995 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

true dat but look at those fat tails (pun intended) during the great depression years.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 11:05 | 216997 perchprism
perchprism's picture


The readers will notice that over the last 80 years plus rarely has this phenomenon been proven incorrect.

"Incorrect" is not correct;  "untrue" is the proper word to use.

Still, it is an interesting observation.  90% of my 401-K is in Treasuries, since January '08.  I missed the crash, but also the 60% recovery since March. I can't participate in the stock market because it's now starkly manipulated, and hence can't be predicted with standard due diligence.

But my expectation is that this year will prove to be a disaster for Treasuries, because of fundamentals, and yet here's this data set that says it'll be the first time it's happened (in a year following a preceeding > 5% drop) in 80 years.  I think we're totally breaking new ground here.  I think Mr. Lamoureux is in for a rude awakening.    

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 18:45 | 225720 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

and that's why you are in 90% treasuries with your own money...good call, pal

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 11:05 | 217000 IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

Didn't the 10 year Treasuries return a positive return for 2009 (around 5 -7%)? At least that is what IEF ETF is showing me...

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 11:43 | 217065 phaesed
phaesed's picture

hmmmm, perhaps if you include dividends.... but I don't believe that that's the case, the 08 return was insane.


Thu, 02/04/2010 - 11:36 | 217052 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If you believe the deflation theme then rates have to go lower regardless of our incompetent governement and federal reserve bank. Japan makes that point.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 11:47 | 217069 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

And what, may I ask is 'magic' about a calendar year? Absent an explanation, this is just a historical oddity.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 12:15 | 217130 Yves Lamoureux
Yves Lamoureux's picture

from the Author

ending rates   for   2006  +1.96%

                           2007  +10.21%

                           2008  +20.10%

                           2009  -11.20 %

I tried to remove the emotion aspect of this trade by showing this first study.My favorite tool will be shown in a future coming piece.


Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!