• Sprott Money
    04/29/2016 - 05:58
    There is unfortunately no basis for renewed optimism that this current litigation will have any meaningful impact on precious metals manipulation – with respect to either silver or gold.

Guest Post: A Technical Look At Treasuries - Room For Optimism

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Thu, 02/04/2010 - 11:02 | 216995 Anonymous
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true dat but look at those fat tails (pun intended) during the great depression years.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 11:05 | 216997 perchprism
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The readers will notice that over the last 80 years plus rarely has this phenomenon been proven incorrect.

"Incorrect" is not correct;  "untrue" is the proper word to use.

Still, it is an interesting observation.  90% of my 401-K is in Treasuries, since January '08.  I missed the crash, but also the 60% recovery since March. I can't participate in the stock market because it's now starkly manipulated, and hence can't be predicted with standard due diligence.

But my expectation is that this year will prove to be a disaster for Treasuries, because of fundamentals, and yet here's this data set that says it'll be the first time it's happened (in a year following a preceeding > 5% drop) in 80 years.  I think we're totally breaking new ground here.  I think Mr. Lamoureux is in for a rude awakening.    

Wed, 02/10/2010 - 18:45 | 225720 Anonymous
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and that's why you are in 90% treasuries with your own money...good call, pal

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 11:05 | 217000 IBelieveInMagic
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Didn't the 10 year Treasuries return a positive return for 2009 (around 5 -7%)? At least that is what IEF ETF is showing me...

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 11:43 | 217065 phaesed
phaesed's picture

hmmmm, perhaps if you include dividends.... but I don't believe that that's the case, the 08 return was insane.

 

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 11:36 | 217052 Anonymous
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If you believe the deflation theme then rates have to go lower regardless of our incompetent governement and federal reserve bank. Japan makes that point.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 11:47 | 217069 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

And what, may I ask is 'magic' about a calendar year? Absent an explanation, this is just a historical oddity.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 12:15 | 217130 Yves Lamoureux
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from the Author

ending rates   for   2006  +1.96%

                           2007  +10.21%

                           2008  +20.10%

                           2009  -11.20 %

I tried to remove the emotion aspect of this trade by showing this first study.My favorite tool will be shown in a future coming piece.

Yves

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