Guest Post: A Technical Look At Treasuries - Room For Optimism

Tyler Durden's picture

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Anonymous's picture

true dat but look at those fat tails (pun intended) during the great depression years.

perchprism's picture


The readers will notice that over the last 80 years plus rarely has this phenomenon been proven incorrect.

"Incorrect" is not correct;  "untrue" is the proper word to use.

Still, it is an interesting observation.  90% of my 401-K is in Treasuries, since January '08.  I missed the crash, but also the 60% recovery since March. I can't participate in the stock market because it's now starkly manipulated, and hence can't be predicted with standard due diligence.

But my expectation is that this year will prove to be a disaster for Treasuries, because of fundamentals, and yet here's this data set that says it'll be the first time it's happened (in a year following a preceeding > 5% drop) in 80 years.  I think we're totally breaking new ground here.  I think Mr. Lamoureux is in for a rude awakening.    

Anonymous's picture

and that's why you are in 90% treasuries with your own money...good call, pal

IBelieveInMagic's picture

Didn't the 10 year Treasuries return a positive return for 2009 (around 5 -7%)? At least that is what IEF ETF is showing me...

phaesed's picture

hmmmm, perhaps if you include dividends.... but I don't believe that that's the case, the 08 return was insane.


Anonymous's picture

If you believe the deflation theme then rates have to go lower regardless of our incompetent governement and federal reserve bank. Japan makes that point.

Anonymous's picture

And what, may I ask is 'magic' about a calendar year? Absent an explanation, this is just a historical oddity.

Yves Lamoureux's picture

from the Author

ending rates   for   2006  +1.96%

                           2007  +10.21%

                           2008  +20.10%

                           2009  -11.20 %

I tried to remove the emotion aspect of this trade by showing this first study.My favorite tool will be shown in a future coming piece.