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true dat but look at those fat tails (pun intended) during the great depression years.
The readers will notice that over the last 80 years plus rarely has this phenomenon been proven incorrect.
"Incorrect" is not correct; "untrue" is the proper word to use.
Still, it is an interesting observation. 90% of my 401-K is in Treasuries, since January '08. I missed the crash, but also the 60% recovery since March. I can't participate in the stock market because it's now starkly manipulated, and hence can't be predicted with standard due diligence.
But my expectation is that this year will prove to be a disaster for Treasuries, because of fundamentals, and yet here's this data set that says it'll be the first time it's happened (in a year following a preceeding > 5% drop) in 80 years. I think we're totally breaking new ground here. I think Mr. Lamoureux is in for a rude awakening.
and that's why you are in 90% treasuries with your own money...good call, pal
Didn't the 10 year Treasuries return a positive return for 2009 (around 5 -7%)? At least that is what IEF ETF is showing me...
hmmmm, perhaps if you include dividends.... but I don't believe that that's the case, the 08 return was insane.
If you believe the deflation theme then rates have to go lower regardless of our incompetent governement and federal reserve bank. Japan makes that point.
And what, may I ask is 'magic' about a calendar year? Absent an explanation, this is just a historical oddity.
from the Author
ending rates for 2006 +1.96%
2009 -11.20 %
I tried to remove the emotion aspect of this trade by showing this first study.My favorite tool will be shown in a future coming piece.
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