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Guest Post: There Are No Good Outcomes

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform

There Are No Good Outcomes

The political class and their mouthpieces in the corporate controlled
mainstream media are desperately trying to spin the oil price surge as a
temporary inconvenience that will not derail their phony recovery
story. Brent crude closed at $116 per barrel yesterday. West Texas crude
closed at $104 per barrel. Unleaded gas has risen by 22% in the last
month and 60% since September 1, 2010. I’m sure this slight increase
hasn’t impacted Ben Bernanke or Lloyd Blankfein. Their limo drivers just
charge it to their unlimited expense accounts. Joe Sixpack, driving his
15 mpg Dodge RAM pickup, is now forking over an extra $1,200 per year
in gas expenditures, not to mention more for everything impacted by oil
such as food, utilities, and anything transported to their local
Wal-Mart by truck (everything). Luckily, the Federal Reserve and crooked
politicians only care about their comrades in the top 1% elitist
society, for whom oil is an investment, not an expense.  

               UNLEADED GAS 

The “experts” speak as if they know what will happen, even
though they never saw the rebellions coming in Tunisia, Egypt or Libya.
They assure the masses that Libya doesn’t really have an impact on U.S.
oil supply. It’s as if these shills never took Econ 101 in college.
World oil demand is 88 million barrels per day. Oil supply is 88 million
barrels per day. If 1 million barrels of oil supply are taken off-line,
it doesn’t matter that the U.S. doesn’t get their oil from Libya. The
Italians need their oil. Do the talking heads understand that oil is
fungible? The supplier will ship the oil to the highest bidder.
Presto!!! – $116 a barrel oil.

With Friends Like This, Who Needs Enemies

Let’s assess the probability of things getting better in the near,
medium, long term or ever term. Take a gander at the chart below. These
countries account for 29% of the daily world oil supply. Does it strike
you as a list of stable countries with happy populations of employed
young men?  Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iran have already experienced
revolution or are on the verge of revolution. Algeria is dead man
walking. The Saudi royal family is trying to buy off the masses to stay
in power. The revolution genie is out of the bottle. It can’t be put
back. Mix 40% unemployment, with millions of young men, no hope, and
some Muslim fundamentalism and you’ve got yourself an out of control
situation. No amount of public relations spin will create a positive
outcome for the United States. The existing world order of despots,
kings, and military juntas was just fine for Washington DC. They poured
hundreds of billions of “aid”, tanks, helicopters and missiles to these
“freedom fighter” despots who diverted the billions to their Swiss bank
accounts and fell into line with U.S. policy. No matter who takes power
when these revolutions succeed in toppling our puppets, the new regimes
will not be friendlier toward America. And they still have the oil. 

  Proven Oil Oil
Country Reserves (bil barrels) Production Per Day
Saudi Arabia 265 8,400,000
Iran 137 3,700,000
Iraq  115 2,700,000
UAE 98 2,300,000
Kuwait 102 2,300,000
Libya 46 1,600,000
Algeria 12 1,300,000
Qatar 25 820,000
Oman 6 810,000
Egypt 4 742,000
Syria 3 376,000
Yemen 3 298,000


One look at the chart of self reported world oil reserves paints a
picture of woe for the United States. Countries in the tinderbox of the
Middle East and Africa control 65% of the world’s oil reserves. Saudi
Arabia controls 20%, Iran and Iraq control 11% each, Venezuela controls
7%, Russia 5%, and Libya 3%. So, countries that can barely stomach our
existence, hate us, or just despise us, control 57% of the world’s
remaining oil. Sounds like a recipe for lower oil prices in the future.
The two countries on our border are the only dependable suppliers for
the U.S. Canada controls 13% of the world oil reserves, mostly in its
tar sands. Mexico controls just over 1% of the world’s oil reserves, but
supplies 13% of the U.S. daily oil supply.

File:World Oil Reserves by Region.PNG

Drill, Baby, Drill

Now for a reality check on the “Drill Baby Drill” propagandists like
Larry Kudlow and the other dishonest Republican shills. The United
States controls a full 1.58% of the remaining oil reserves in the world.
We have 21.3 billion barrels of reserves versus 264 billion barrels in
Saudi Arabia. We are currently producing 9 million barrels per day. At
that production rate, the U.S. will deplete its proven reserves in the
next 6 to 10 years. New discoveries will not be able to keep up with
depletion of existing wells. The good news just keeps coming. Mexico’s
oil production has been dependent upon one giant oil field since 1976.
The Cantarell oil field produced 2.1 million barrels per day in 2003 at
its peak. It is currently producing 464,000 barrels per day. Peak oil
has arrived in Mexico. By 2015, the country that currently supplies 13%
of our daily oil supply will become a net importer of oil. Drill Baby

File:Mexican Petroleum Production.PNG

Based upon the monthly import data below from the IEA, it would
appear that, to paraphrase Chief Brody in Jaws, we’re going to need more
corn. As the Obama administration operates in denial of these simple
facts, they will continue to push ethanol and Chevy Volts to save us
from dirty oil. We are already diverting 40% of our corn crop to the
ethanol boondoggle. I’m sure that has nothing to do with the 98%
increase in corn prices in the last year. Maybe tax credits for solar
panels on SUVs and rubber band propeller cars will save the day.

We know for a fact that Mexico’s 1.2 million barrels per day will
evaporate in the next few years. But, at least we have that solid
dependable 2.7 million barrels per day (30% of our daily imports) from
those stable bastions of democracy Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, Angola, and
Algeria. Makes you want to go out and buy a Hummer. The storyline being
sold to the American people is that there is no need to worry. Saudi
Arabia will step to the plate and make up for any shortfalls throughout
the world. Just one problem. Saudi Arabia is lying about their reserves
and their ability to increase production. They’d fit in very well in
Congress and on Wall Street.

Crude Oil Imports (Top 15 Countries)
(Thousand Barrels per Day)
Country Dec-10 Nov-10 YTD 2010 Dec-09 YTD 2009

CANADA 2,064 1,975 1,972 2,104 1,943
MEXICO 1,223 1,229 1,140 1,063 1,092
SAUDI ARABIA 1,076 1,119 1,080 870 980
NIGERIA 1,024 806 986 1,020 776
VENEZUELA 825 884 912 772 951
IRAQ 336 340 414 325 449
ANGOLA 307 263 380 266 448
BRAZIL 271 188 254 181 295
ALGERIA 262 379 325 336 281
COLOMBIA 220 489 338 179 251
ECUADOR 192 188 195 86 181
RUSSIA 158 85 252 168 230
KUWAIT 125 170 195 160 180
UNITED KINGDOM 124 80 120 67 103
ARGENTINA 85 35 29 33 53


Lies, Obfuscation, Misinformation & Denial

The late Matt Simmons made the strong case In his book Twilight in the Desert that
Saudi Arabia has been lying about their reserves for years. Documents
released by Wikileaks give support to this contention. Cables from the
U.S. Embassy in Riyadh , released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take
seriously a warning from senior Saudi government oil executive Sadad
al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil
monopoly Aramco, that the kingdom’s crude oil reserves may have been
overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.
The UK Guardian reported:

According to the cables, which date
between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m
barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 –
global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch
point is known as “peak oil”.

Husseini said that at that point Aramco
would not be able to stop the rise of global oil prices because the
Saudi energy industry had overstated its recoverable reserves to spur
foreign investment. He argued that Aramco had badly underestimated the
time needed to bring new oil on tap.

One cable said: “According to
al-Husseini, the crux of the issue is twofold. First, it is possible
that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described, and the
timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramco and energy
optimists would like to portray.”

The US consul then told Washington:
“While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he
is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand
that his predictions be thoughtfully considered.”

A fourth cable, in October 2009,
claimed that escalating electricity demand by Saudi Arabia may further
constrain Saudi oil exports. “Demand [for electricity] is expected to
grow 10% a year over the next decade as a result of population and
economic growth. As a result it will need to double its generation
capacity to 68,000MW in 2018,” it said.

It also reported major project delays
and accidents as “evidence that the Saudi Aramco is having to run harder
to stay in place – to replace the decline in existing production.”
While fears of premature “peak oil” and Saudi production problems had
been expressed before, no US official has come close to saying this in

The overstatement of reserves by Saudi
Arabia and most of the OPEC countries should be abundantly clear to
anyone with a smattering of critical thinking skills. This eliminates
just about everyone on CNBC or Fox News. Essentially, the self reported,
unaudited declared oil reserves from OPEC members are a fraud.
Production quotas for each member of OPEC are dependent upon their oil
reserve amount. When this was instituted in the early 1980s, shockingly
OPEC countries miraculously added nearly 300 billion barrels to proven
reserves in a six year period with NO NEW DISCOVERIES of oil. The chart
below shows the unexplained jumps in reserves in red. Do you honestly
believe any self reported number from Iran or Venezuela? Dr. Ali Samsam
Bakhtiari, a former senior expert of the National Iranian Oil Company,
has estimated that Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates have overstated reserves by a combined 320–390 billion barrels
and has said, “As for Iran, the usually accepted official 132 billion
barrels is almost one hundred billion over any realistic estimate.”

Using some common sense, someone might ask,
“How could Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves remain above 260 million for the
last 22 years despite pumping over 60 billion barrels during this time
frame, and not making any major new discoveries?” Maybe their
statisticians did their training at Goldman Sachs or the Federal
Reserve. The monster Saudi oil fields are over 40 years old. They will
deplete. Oil is finite. They will not refill abiotically like some
crackpots contend. Saudi Arabia’s production peaked in 2005 and it has
been unable to reach that level since. The spin sheiks in Riyadh and
spin doctors in Washington DC cannot spin oil out of sand. Peak oil is
about to choke the American way of life.    

Declared reserves of major Opec Producers (billion of barrels)
BP Statistical Review – June 2009
Year Iran Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia UAE Venezuela Libya Nigeria
1980 58.3 30.0 67.9 168.0 30.4 19.5 20.3 16.7
1981 57.0 32.0 67.7 167.9 32.2 19.9 22.6 16.5
1982 56.1 59.0 67.2 165.5 32.4 24.9 22.2 16.8
1983 55.3 65.0 67.0 168.8 32.3 25.9 21.8 16.6
1984 58.9 65.0 92.7 171.7 32.5 28.0 21.4 16.7
1985 59.0 65.0 92.5 171.5 33.0 54.5 21.3 16.6
1986 92.9 72.0 94.5 169.7 97.2 55.5 22.8 16.1
1987 92.9 100.0 94.5 169.6 98.1 58.1 22.8 16.0
1988 92.9 100.0 94.5 255.0 98.1 58.5 22.8 16.0
1989 92.9 100.0 97.1 260.1 98.1 59.0 22.8 16.0
1990 92.9 100.0 97.0 260.3 98.1 60.1 22.8 17.1
1991 92.9 100.0 96.5 260.9 98.1 62.6 22.8 20.0
1992 92.9 100.0 96.5 261.2 98.1 63.3 22.8 21.0
1993 92.9 100.0 96.5 261.4 98.1 64.4 22.8 21.0
1994 94.3 100.0 96.5 261.4 98.1 64.9 22.8 21.0
1995 93.7 100.0 96.5 261.5 98.1 66.3 29.5 20.8
1996 92.6 112.0 96.5 261.4 97.8 72.7 29.5 20.8
1997 92.6 112.5 96.5 261.5 97.8 74.9 29.5 20.8
1998 93.7 112.5 96.5 261.5 97.8 76.1 29.5 22.5
1999 93.1 112.5 96.5 262.8 97.8 76.8 29.5 29.0
2000 99.5 112.5 96.5 262.8 97.8 76.8 36.0 29.0
2001 99.1 115.0 96.5 262.7 97.8 77.7 36.0 31.5
2002 130.7 115.0 96.5 262.8 97.8 77.3 36.0 34.3
2003 133.3 115.0 99.0 262.7 97.8 77.2 39.1 35.3
2004 132.7 115.0 101.5 264.3 97.8 79.7 39.1 35.9
2005 137.5 115.0 101.5 264.2 97.8 80.0 41.5 36.2
2006 138.4 115.0 101.5 264.3 97.8 87.3 41.5 36.2
2007 138.2 115.0 101.5 264.2 97.8 99.4 43.7 36.2
2008 137.6 115.0 101.5 264.1 97.8 99.4 43.7 36.2




The denial, accusations and misinformation have already begun.
Congressional hearings will be called to blame Big Oil and the dreaded
speculators. Americans always need a bogeyman to blame for their
mindless decisions and willingness to be led to slaughter by corrupt
politicians. Big oil companies do benefit from higher oil prices. Big
oil companies spend millions buying off Congressmen. Big oil
companies cut corners, ignore safety procedures, and seek profits by any
means possible. But, they do not control the oil. Nations control the
oil. Many of these nations are led by lying, corrupt, evil despots. That
is a fact. Blustering moronic Congressmen going after oil executives
and phantom speculators is just a sideshow. It will divert the
non-thinking masses from the truth that our leaders haven’t allowed a
refinery or nuclear power plant to be built since 1977. These leaders
have promoted and subsidized corn based ethanol that requires more
energy to produce than it creates and has driven the cost of our food
sky high. We are more dependent on foreign oil than any time in our

The real speculators are the Americans who clog our highways every
morning driving monster SUVs, turbocharged sports cars, gas guzzling
minivans, and pickup trucks that make them feel like salt of the earth
tough guys despite living in their 6,000 square foot energy sucking
McMansions in suburban tracts 30 miles from their jobs, if they have
one. The ignorance of the average American car buyer knows no bounds.
The recent bounce back in auto sales was led by SUVs and pickups. The
green clean cars are nothing but hype and bullshit. GM expects to sell
about 10,000 Volts this year, and Nissan expects to sell about 25,000
Leafs in the United States, a piss in the ocean compared with the
millions of sport wagons and SUVs purchased by Americans annually.
Americans have the attention span of a gnat and are already dazed and
confused by the surge in gas prices to $3.50 per gallon.

When oil prices spiked to $147 barrel in 2008, Americans were
spending $467 billion per year for fuel. By early 2009, the collapse in
energy prices due to the worldwide recession reduced the annual
expenditure to $265 billion, freeing up over $200 billion for consumers
to spend on other items, pay down debt, or save. Expenditures for fuel
had already surged back to $400 billion before the recent spike in oil
prices. Next stop $500 billion. That should do wonders for the faux
economic recovery that has been touted by Obama and the MSM for the last
year. The years of denial, lies, indecision, bad decisions, and inertia
have left the country vulnerable and at the mercy of countries in far
off lands that despise our way of life.

There are no good outcomes, only bad, really bad, and catastrophic.
Take your pick. Could gas prices drop below $3.00 per gallon if the
world sinks back into recession? Yes. But it would only be momentary.
The easy to access supply is dwindling. The medium and long term
direction of gas at the pump is up. There is nothing that can be done in
the next five years to prevent significantly higher oil prices. A full
court press of realistic ideas like converting our truck fleets to
natural gas, a major effort to build nuclear power plants, more
drilling, greater use of wind, geothermal, and solar would take at least
a decade to have an impact. There is no consensus or resolve to
undertake such an effort. Therefore, Americans will suffer the
consequences. Be a good American and take advantage of GM’s no interest
for 7 years deal on their biggest baddest SUVs and buy two. What could
go wrong?


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Sat, 03/05/2011 - 12:52 | 1021899 Everyman
Everyman's picture

The time is soon to be coming to "ventilate" those that created this mess.  The reprisal from the severly effected "great unwashed" will not take this lying down.  I personally would like 15 minutes with Hank Paulsen, Ben Bernanke, and Timmah in  a room with a 2x4.  Those SOBs!

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 14:22 | 1022072 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

so that smell is not burning tire rubber but smoke?????

Quite sure that they are doing everything possible to raise gas prices to keep the unwashed masses from driving to DC this Spring.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 15:43 | 1022226 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

Until Americans re-embrace the 2,000 years old civilized notions of ethics, honor, conscience, respect, integerty, and 'shalt not', it won't matter.   At this point, it would seem that these concepts are on the shelf, and we are likely to have a long hot summer.

Civilization is in trouble because very powerful forces have chose that path for us to walk or crawl down.  These powers know how to turn us into animals, how to make us eat our own and not flinch.  They show us blood and we want is exciting, and it is their entertainment to watch us.  They know how to make us want, want more of everything.   They know how to maniliplate us everyday..... with religions, with hate and fear, with toys, with food and water, with fame and status, with anything you can name and they do it with freedom from constraint and with ingenious expert finesse. 

These powerful people have hundreds of generations of fine tuned family DNA, hand picked marriages for the right children to execute the familys' plans, and to hand the legacy to their yet unborn aire worthy to continue their kingdoms. 

They have won, over and over and over, for centuries...for generations.  To all things come to an end sooner or later.  The next seven years will be telling the tale to either their children or yours.

Maybe it is time their real names were bantered about and made public, let the sun shine on their crimes and clean us of this mildewed world.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 16:11 | 1022286 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Maybe it is time their real names were bantered about and made public, let the sun shine on their crimes and clean us of this mildewed world.


Sat, 03/05/2011 - 17:02 | 1022357 Duuude
Sat, 03/05/2011 - 18:14 | 1022472 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

The peak oil scam is just another version of the green energy fraud.

Governments, investors and even the World Bank are rushing for the exits in the Great Escape from the green energy bubble.

Solar energy appears to be the worst affected sector so far. Dow Jones reports on a startling U-turn by Britain’s ultra-green government has caught investors off guard and shock waves across the markets will likely precipitate the further rush from green energy projects to shale gas.

The UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change made the shock announcement as it revealed a comprehensive review of its Feed-in Tariff (FIT) program. Indications from data provider, Prequin are that over $1bn in earmarked funds may be lost as Britain now promises it will only hold tariffs until April 2012.

Green Investors Feeling Betrayed by European Governments

Britain’s decision is another nail in the coffin for Europe’s tottering green energy market. Last year the first of several crushing body blows was dealt to environmentalist dreams when the Spanish government retrospectively cut the value of its tariffs in its own U-turning energy review.

The devastated Spanish Solar Photovoltaic Industry Association, with mass bankruptcies on the cards, is accusing their government of utter betrayal is yet to carry out a threat to sue over the ruling.

As the green house of cards collapses Netherlands-based investment manager DIF and BNP Paribas and venture capitalists such as Future Capital Partners are rumored to be extremely fearful of further repercussions coming at a time when European public opinion is bored and fatigued after two decades of endless global warming hype.

UK Energy Minister Charles Hendry made the starkly ominous admission, “one third of Britons think the science on climate change has been exaggerated.”

Not helping the green cause has been a succession of brutally cold Northern hemispheric winters which an increasing number of scientists fear may be the harbinger of the onset of a mini-ice age.

Abundance of Shale Gas Deflates Green Energy Bubble

Causing green lobbyists and environmentally focused investors to cry bitter into their carrot juice comes the news that China is making its move to become pre-eminent in shale gas investment.

Peter Foster in the Financial Post (February 11, 2011) reports that energy company Encana is to get a proposed $5.4-billion investment by PetroChina in its shale gas operations. The move he says “confirms the soaring importance of a resource that 10 years ago was hardly on the commercial map.”

The market obviously liked the news of the Chinese investment as Encana shares jumped 4.5% to close at $32.02.

Savvy shale gas investors are also looking most eagerly at Canada where the discovery that Quebec has considerable shale gas potential has dealt another blow to the idea that the world’s energy resources are anywhere near a so-called “peak.”

A strident Quebec Oil and Gas Association has hired former Parti Quebecois premier Lucien Bouchard to help lobby for provincial development to exploit the unexpected huge find.

With so many known large deposits of shale gas in countries such as Poland, Germany, France and the U.K. economic strategists are finally waking up to the fact that this monumental new resources could help free Europe from the threat of disruptions from its main natural gas supplier, Russia.

Andrew Orlowski reporting for ‘The Register’ (February 10, 2011) reveals Holland has also joined the rush away from green by becoming the first country to abandon the EU-wide target of producing 20 per cent of its domestic power from renewables. The Dutch are now putting their long-term faith in nuclear. Netherland’s only nuclear reactor, the Borssele plant, scheduled for closure by 2003 is now planned to operate at least until 2034.

World Bank Joins Rush Away from the Green White Elephant

Top line international bankers also appear to be abandoning ‘big green’ according to a report by climate scientist Roger Pielke Jr. who highlights two recent research papers published by influential thinkers inside the World Bank.

Economics papers by Robert Mendelsohn and Gokay Saher (here in PDF) and Medelsohn, Kerry Emanuel and Shun Chonabayashi (here in PDF) chop the legs from under the pro-green Stern Review (2007) and affirm that no human impact may be inferred on global climate.

With economists plainly joining an increasing number of scientists in global warming skepticism its little wonder there’s now a mass flight away from ‘renewables;’ such that both investors and governments are compelled to follow suit in the clearest indication yet that green energy won’t live up to its promises.

The key to long-term economic success now appears to be safely premised once again on solid market innovation, not ideologically driven government subsidies; such subsidized ventures have a long and notorious history as lame duck enterprises. It seems ‘green renewables has become the latest of these white elephants.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 19:10 | 1022536 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Bicycle Repairman:

"The peak oil scam is just another version of the green energy fraud."

But, .. er .. as a bicycle repairman should you not embrace this moonbat meme in order to stimulate your repair business?

just askin'

- Ned

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:15 | 1022630 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

I ride bicycles for fun and exercise.  I am not saving the planet.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:29 | 1022645 snowball777
snowball777's picture

John O'Sullivan sucks Exxon dick...for fun and exercise. He's not saving Exxon dick.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:33 | 1022648 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Keeping working on your credibility.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:40 | 1022661 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

nay cred' but y'know, two-wheelerz need maint!

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 21:30 | 1022714 spinone
spinone's picture

shale gas.  oil liquid.  US cars run on liquid.  any questions?

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 22:11 | 1022760 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Cars can be retrofitted to run on natural gas.  Therefore cars can be manufactured to run on natural gas.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 23:56 | 1022914 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

Greenspan on Gold's Rise - CNBC 4/3/11

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 00:03 | 1022929 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

You are Dreaming smoke and mirrors.


Go back and snore.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 06:02 | 1023218 zhandax
zhandax's picture

Steam cars can run on last week's garbage.  A Stanley Steamer with a bit too much aerodynamicity went airborne in Daytona in 1906 when it hit a new land speed record of 127mph.  Seen any steam cars in the last 80 years?  What's you point?  Google Fred Mariott.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 21:44 | 1024837 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Gasoline engines atomize the "liquid" into a gaseous form and is sprayed or injected into the engine and fired.     Milestones

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 23:42 | 1022882 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Keep workin' that shaft, Exxon bunboy.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 19:13 | 1022540 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture


Sat, 03/05/2011 - 19:13 | 1022545 Michael
Michael's picture

Project BLS Mayhem.

Every unemployed person must apply on-line for unemployment weather you qualify for it or not.

If they ask questions just say you thought you qualified for emergency unemployment compensation.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 19:44 | 1022584 Michael
Michael's picture

If your not having fun, you ain't doing it right.

Ron Paul Dragster at the Cardboard Classic

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:22 | 1022637 velobabe
velobabe's picture

B A N G , iam IN , michael.

where do i sign ^ .

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:57 | 1022678 Michael
Michael's picture

Charlie Sheen live 7PM pacific time. Sheen's Corner.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 19:33 | 1022570 trav7777
trav7777's picture're aware that gas is not oil, right?

Peak oil has nothing whatsoever to do with global warming or climate change or any of this other shit.

Peak oil was methodically described by M. King Hubbert in the 1950s, LONG before there were any environuts or concepts of carbon emissions.  You dipshits need to get with the program

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 00:27 | 1022983 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

you've convinced me but some think it's like who do you want in the fraternity.  it isn't.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 03:37 | 1023119 geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

Obviously you're an idiot and have no business making claims related to climate change. All I can hope is that you have children, children who will have to endure the hell of a world fuckheads like you seem to be intent on creating.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 05:35 | 1023212 MisterAmbassador
MisterAmbassador's picture

There is nothing that can be done to reverse or stop climate change.  The damage has already been done.  Any real expert who doesn't have a political agenda will tell you that.  You might as well just enjoy living in the Oil Age.  It really is an amazing time; the modern world isn't possible without oil.

Right-wingers, like Joe on Squawk Box on CNBC, have a point when they claim they cannot believe that the act of exhaling CO2 is destroying the planet.  But, they fail to realize that it's not so much that we produce CO2 and other greenhouse gases, as much as it is we are producing those gases faster than the earth can absorb and recycle them.  If there were only 100 million people on the planet, everyone could drive a hummer and the planet could easily recycle all that CO2 because we wouldn't be clearing rain forests for vast farms to feed and wood to house 6.7 billion people. We produce more and more gases while also cutting down the trees and plants that can clean the air - it's just unsustainable defined.

You see, all of the problems on this planet, including climate change, really come down to over-population.  The planet simply cannot absorb and replenish the damage done by 6.7 billion people.  Now, the planet is only able to support 6.7 billion because oil has increased the carrying capacity of the planet far beyond what it would otherwise be.  As oil production declines, population will decline.  Huge farms to feed the world are not possible without oil.  Many, if not most, pesticides and fertilizers are petroleum derivatives, not to mention diesel for farm machinery.  And, the massive amounts of energy needed to distribute all that food to 6.7 billion people mainly come from oil.  Climate change is the planet's way of re-balancing itself.  If climate change results in the deaths of several billion people, then the planet has solved its problem and is back in balance.  If climate change doesn't result in the deaths of several billion people, the decline in oil production over the next twenty-five years will.  The population will fall back to a more historic, sustainable level of 1 billion +/- 500 million.  This isn't something we can really solve.  Nothing can replace oil.  The planet has fundamental limits on its ability to support life, especially those pesky humans who find ways to cheat Mother Nature for a time by artificially overcoming those limits - make no mistake, though, She always wins.  Earth was here long before human beings, and it will be here long after.  Just enjoy living in the Oil Age.  The quality of life during the Oil Age (at least here in the United States) outweighs the loss of quantity of life facing those 50 years of age and younger (like me at 24). 

Considering what appears to be on the horizon economically, I don't really see much point after 26 or 27.  Trying out Charlie Sheen's lifestyle is sounding better all the time; might as well go out of this world partying it up.  At least, that's how I see it.  If you don't, then find another way to artificially increase the carrying capacity of the planet while preserving the quality of life you've come to take for granted, without throwing off the ecological balance of the planet.  Good luck with that.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 16:13 | 1024054 geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

Your position seems to be a rehashed form of nihilism with the sole focus for climate change on population, when it is the product of 1) population, 2) technology, and 3) hubris that leads to environmental impact. A reduction in any one of these three would be a step in the right direction, but most people seem unwilling to examine their way of life and certainly are unwilling to part with their precious technologies, hence the focus on all those damn people behaving like bunnies. (BTW, I'm not a breeder)

When I examined the data, it was very clear that the primary contributors to global warming are developed countries, such as the US, where 5% of the world's population consumes 25% of the worldwide output of oil. From my perspective, the only real power I have to change the world is to decide what I am going to do, and so I made a series of changes in my life that allowed me to drastically reduce my personal usage. I consider it a form of insurance, in that I will be less affected when the oil shortages come. I live on an organic farm with several water sources, and many people in the community are peak-oil and also PM aware. Folks here are already talking about using silver for local trade, so I have been feeling less doomer than usual.

I don't necessarily disagree with much of what you wrote. It does seem very clear that Malthus was right after all and global weirdness is going to wreak havoc and make survival that much more difficult in the face of pestilence and war. For a long time I have seen life in the US as a form of musical chairs, and I think the music is going to stop very soon. But folks aren't just going to lay down and die. There is already an exodus of people to places where they can provide for their needs and achieve some degree of security, but obviously many sheeple will need the proverbial 2x4 to wake them up.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 21:21 | 1024787 MisterAmbassador
MisterAmbassador's picture

Yes, those things are certainly inter-related.  The population wouldn't be possible without the technology, though, and hubris is a human characteristic.  But, I still say that if there were only a couple hundred million people here, the planet could absorb the damage done by them burning oil and clearing land, etc.  For instance, the planet could absorb and replenish the US population's damage easily, if there were no other people on the planet.  Whenever I get into this topic, I feel like people think I'm calling for people to be killed.  I'm not.  If something like that began, I'd make sure to check out too.  People who survived and instituted that type of policy wouldn't be people I'd care to be around.  The world would be an absolutely evil place after something like that with those people in charge of it.

Yes, the US does consume 25% of the world's oil.  Life isn't fair.  And, this is nothing new.  Power has alwasy seemed to concentrate with a relatively small number of people compared to the population of the world.  Empires rise and fall.  It all evens out in the end.  America was truly a new world.  We had a lot of resources to exploit and develop and were protected from WWII by geography.  This gave us great wealth and, of course, power.  Our rise was inevitable.  So, we're kind of like the modern day Roman Empire, except not nearly as brutal.  That's just the way the world has always worked and always will, so long as there are scarce resources.  China and India have far too many people to ever rise to the status of superpower.  It would be impossible to elevate the majority of their population to an American middle-class standard of living.  Our standard of living will fall back down to a more world-wide standard of living.  I mean, in the timeline of history, our 70 year dominance is nothing.  Just an anamoly.

I agree people won't just lay down and die.  I don't expect them too.  But, I have no desire to be here for the chaos and carnage that will ensue when America isn't there to keep the world stable and people realize that we are actually running out of resources.  I will just leave and lay down and die.

The historic popluation of the planet is around 1 billion +/- 500 million.  You can see a direct correlation between oil production increase and population increase over the last 150 years.  The planet cannot sustain this population, or anywhere near it, without oil.  Oil is finite.  And, this population is just an anamoly in the timeline of humanity.

Hubris of a being that lives maybe 80 years is nothing compared to a planet that will be here for billions.  I'm a reincarnation person.  I think this is just one universe out of an infinite number.  Just leave this one go into the next.  So, death doesn't scare me; it's a natural part of life.  Everything works out exactly the way it's supposed to in the end.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:10 | 1028463 geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

I guess I was wrong in characterizing your position as nihilist, you're fatalist.

I don't think population is the problem. The real problem is our use of energy, our technology, and the arrogance to believe everything on this planet is ours to exploit - and then act upon that belief as if it were true, and well, what you get is what we have now. It's called an empirically-proven faulty epistemology.

We're not more brutal than the Romans? Wow. You should tell that to the people of Iraq and Afghanistan. I'd imagine they have a slightly different point of view. How about those guys in Gitmo? I can easily imagine many things worse than death, and my understanding is that they teach these things at The School of Americas, and have practiced and perfected them over many years in Latin America and now in Iraq and Afghanistan. They have surpassed the cruelty of the Romans in every way imaginable. They have figured out how to destroy the mind utterly, yet keep the body intact. So you mock me by suggesting the US and it's forces are somehow a "Kinder gentler machine gun hand."

As far as I can tell, there is no "historic population." We have been growing for many generations, as permitted by available resources and a relatively stable climate.  I don't dispute that oil and other fuels have permitted the population increase, and that population is going to decrease going forward due to famine, pestilence, war, and the wrath of Mother Nature. But I'm not a fatalist. Instead, the way I see it, either we will begin evolving again and begin to relearn how to adapt to the environment instead of adapting the environment to meet our trivial and transitory desires, or the changes induced by our faulty epistemology will be too great for anything larger than a small shrew to make it through this Sixth Extinction Event. 

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 22:04 | 1024896 trav7777
trav7777's picture

There are certain things that are of the most immediately apparent is that I am the opposite of an idiot.

I have absolutely no clue whatsoever as to how you could make the leap from my TRUE statement that Peak Oil has nothing whatsoever to do with climate change to your diatribe; it's a complete non-sequitur

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 23:57 | 1028539 geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

A grasp of basic logic seems to evade you. The way these sort of arguments go is: premise 1, premise 2, premise 3, ... premise n --> conclusion.

Simply saying that it is a true statement that peak oil has nothing to do with climate change is just an unsubstantiated conclusion, without any premises. And without any empricial evidence either. What you have been articulating is called a belief, and beliefs aren't subject to contradictory evidence. They just are. It is a construct that only exists in your brain in the form of mutually-reinforcing ideas, and it is easily demonstrated that people can believe all sorts of crazy things that are nothing less than idiotic. e.g. Jim Jones and the cyanide kool-aid. I merely made the obvious inference.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 08:34 | 1023280 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

Hey Trav!!!! how ya doing honey.  Marcie told me about that big bonus and promotion you got from BP...WOW, you dog you.  What ya gone buy with it?   How about a different Hummer for each day of the month, maybe a nice big yacht or that kool penthouse you were talking about at the Christmas party.  Come on ...tell!!!

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:15 | 1022627 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Good god, if you are going to keep cutting and pasting the same garbage, provide a link instead.

 You have shown that you are capable of listening and understanding though. Nice to see you took my advice re: paragraphs and italics are a nice touch.

All that being said, just STFU, you have not added anything to the discussion.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 22:22 | 1022779 trav7777
trav7777's picture

use your aggressive feelings, boy...let the hate flow through you

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 01:15 | 1023062 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Remember, a Jedi's strength flows from the Force. But beware. Anger, fear, aggression. The dark side are they. Once you start down the dark path, forever will it dominate your destiny.

Or, to paraphrase, "once you go black..."

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 02:31 | 1023127 geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

That's all you got? Nothing more intelligent than that? Idiot.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 13:03 | 1023594 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Bit of a private joke between Trav and I....

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:29 | 1022644 Miss anthrope
Miss anthrope's picture

Thank you ++

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 22:33 | 1022797 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture


Sat, 03/05/2011 - 22:36 | 1022801 Jim Quinn
Jim Quinn's picture

Nice cut and paste job. It beats original thought.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 01:20 | 1023055 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

First of all, it's interesting to see an Oil Drum article here @ ZH.

What took you so long?

Next: our energy situation is a mess and the time to take action has long passed.

The big problem is the carz and the ag. Our ag is 100% dependent on fuel and there are no plans in place to manage a marginal shortage situation. Farmers get good prices for their crops but cannot plant or harvest if they cannot afford the diesel or if diesel is unavailable for some reason or another.

The ag situation is absolutely terrifying b/c of a lack of any sort of contingency plan. The whole country is set to experience that 'New Orleans after Katrina' phenomenon. You know, where thousand are w/o water while truckloads of bottled water are stranded a few miles away ... See Rick Munroe:

The carz have taken over the American brain, the space of the country, the way the country used to work and now the way it doesn't anymore. Choice: you can have a decent job or drive a car? What do most people choose? Car ...

We have a vast and wasteful, grim and nasty car- habitat that is too expensive to operate with fuel over $35 a barrel. This is why the country has been going broke since 2004, people! The bullshit housing bubble was a putative 'hedge' against high fuel prices the same as the Japanese bubble economy and the euro. Add offshoring of jobs; all these were hedges and all have failed miserably.

Economists are morons: the current situation is deflationary because of the DEBT. High fuel prices set a competition between fuel users and with other borrowers for credit. That is the mechanism by which high oil prices destroy credit- based economies. Guess what happens when the credit market is unable to service $100 trillions worth of debt, like starting yesterday?

Bank runs have already started, look for runs out of bonds. The credit market is stinky worldwide and the cause is competition for funds from oil using businesses as well as governments.


This is going to get really, really ugly folks. You have no idea.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 01:52 | 1023099 Seer
Seer's picture

Excellent overview!  Just when I'm about ready to give up hope that there's intelligent life out there...

Even simpler is the fact/challenge that infinite growth on a finite planet isn't possible.  Throughout the ages we've been programmed to believe in the fairy tale that growth is good; of course, it's TPTB who are served by the growth, they live off this temporary growth, they don't have to be digging in the dirt like the rest of us...  but, just like supply and demand corrects things, Mother Nature will correct for the imbalances that these fairy tales have created.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 13:13 | 1023599 Nostradumbass
Nostradumbass's picture

: )

Sometimes I get this vision in my imagination of Earth removing the current plague of humankind like a dog shakes water or dust off of its back...

As we continue to shit in the nest and disrespect our home, this is as likely a scenario for the planet and its inhabitants  as any other...

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 08:24 | 1023273 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

you and the one other guy, living in VA with these thoughts, must have a up hill time on your hands.  Stranger in a strange world, don't know how you can handle it.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 12:25 | 1023512 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Nice to see you here....I rarely post at the drum anymore, I just check in to see the latest developments. 

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 12:52 | 1023569 Nostradumbass
Nostradumbass's picture


Next time just leave a hyperlink, k?


Sun, 03/06/2011 - 13:19 | 1023629 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Right on cue whenever oil is mentioned, bikeman is there with his propaganda.  My brother and I have worked in oil and agriculture for almost thirty years.  Fuck the academics and talk to people in the field retard.  Yes, there are more reserves to tap, however, the "low hanging fruit" as it were, has been picked.  Moving forward with ANY energy network based on combustable fuel for generating power will see significantly diminishing return on investment capital to dig up, harvest, or process the fuel source, period.  The "system" we inhabit (and the universe for that matter) is a closed system with a finite amount of energy that is available (first law). What is worse is that earth (and the universe) are moving even more quickly to a low energy state of disorder and high entropy (second law).  These laws of thermodynamics are not negotiable, no matter what your preacher says.  Citing "influential thinkers inside the World Bank."  does not help your cause bikeman as we both know that these "scientists" are simply shilling for their masters at the world bank and therefore they are paid puppets that world bank can hold up and say "see a scientist says it is so".  These people are sellouts promoting junk science, their work is not peer-reviewed.

The economic models of the past are based on infinite growth and are driven by cheap labor and cheap energy.  No matter what, going forward there is no more cheap energy.  If people insist on keeping the same broken economic models, then the cost of labor will have to give (and we know where that leads now don't we?)  We need a new economic model, period.


The only thing bikeman has going for him is selling bikes to the peasants in the near future so they can get to work (on my sharecropping farms).



Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:28 | 1022643 Hdawg
Hdawg's picture


"Top of the list"


Correct, you'll notice the near novel length replies to your post are intended to break up the thread.


Sun, 03/06/2011 - 00:31 | 1022986 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

tell me again how the jews controlled the nazis.  oh that's right.  the holocaust never happened.  i forgot.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 01:09 | 1023052 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Cognitive dissonance, in real time, is something to behold Jeff.

If the same were applied to Baptist blacks they would instantly be branded racist.

Good thing it is what it is here...the expense of going to the doctor all the time to get my foot withdrawn from someones ass would have probably bankrupted me by now ;-)

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 12:44 | 1023547 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

LOL!!! ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 22:17 | 1022770 robobbob
robobbob's picture

I've been asking for that for years.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 17:23 | 1022392 PolishErick
PolishErick's picture

"These powerful people have hundreds of generations of fine tuned family DNA, hand picked marriages for the right children to execute the familys' plans, and to hand the legacy to their yet unborn aire worthy to continue their kingdoms"


Excuse me?? Fine tuned DNA!? Maybee You havent heard about the "finetuning" of DNA by the House of Habsburg- witch was simply inbreeding (why did they do that? so that they dont divide their fortunes among other families- and that still holds up tooday)... And obviously Youve never heard the term epigenetic... You are overestimating what we are up against. This is just a band of criminals, with roots going back to the inception of the central banking scam- not godlike bloodlines "thousandsofyearsbacknepilimsatan666". They think they controll their own machine, but that is their own illusion- they are delusional incompentent fuckups. Shure- the comming years will be decisive- but its not that the outcome is "either our proginy or theirs". Its "either: they fuck up the whole world AND GET HANGED, or: we stop them, HANG THEM and figure a way forward". They loose both ways in the end- the question is- will we?

Stop beliveing their own illusion... Dont make them seem like sons of Lucifer- theyre sons of privilaged, spoiled bitches. Just spoiled, overconfident, privilaged, genocidal bastards- their place is at the end of a rope... Its comming to them either way!


"legacy" hah! The only true Legacy I know of is... "Legacy of Brutality" by the almighty Misfits... :D

"We walk the streets at night... we go where eagles dare! ..."

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:38 | 1022655 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

UUhhm, HEy!  Captain Literal.  I don't exactly think he was praising these people, or really in awe of their DNA. 

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 06:45 | 1023237 PolishErick
PolishErick's picture

Well Colonel, I know he wasnt praising them, and Im not bashing Meme... I just think hes overestimating what they realy are.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 09:01 | 1023295 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

Thanks Colonel Cooper, glad you understood the call to arms, so to speak.

It is the big picture.  You have a billion dollars and screw up a few million...big deal.  You have a few million and screw up a few million, big deal indeed.  These "families" and how they live, how they think, is not second hand.  There have been many movies that glimpse this clan behavior, but people see it as entertainment not as something real.  The real power lies in the brotherhood of clans and families.  Look at the clan, brotherhood, fraternity that Goldman has created...the heads of banks and governments around the world...they don't need to talk to each other to understand the goal, sure they can screw up here and there, but in the end (like a stream of lava) there combined forces have smothered the world.

Unity of thought and goal, they win. 

Distraction of thought and goal, we loose, and just look at the posts on this page and you can see that 'they' have little to fear.



Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:41 | 1022662 Hdawg
Hdawg's picture

Correct PE ... They will eat their own tail in the end.

Have faith.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 00:35 | 1022989 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

true, p e.  and their momentum is slowing down.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 18:22 | 1022486 Reptil
Reptil's picture

I agree with your concept, that there's a different, higher level of manipulation; we have, as a species both individualistic, and herd mentality. There's genes of both in all of us. Some have more of the first, but these are not always "appreciated" in a "regulated" society.

Our "elite" is not the crop of the cream though, I can attest the following article is right on the money:

Also, power corrupts, always. Our "elite" is out of control. There is a need for a "correction" IMHO.


Indeed, the practice of "eugenics" or "social engineering" is an evolutionairy failure. A reign of a few hundred years is not evidence of genetic superiority. And since we're about to enter a sixth great extinction event, the present course of our elite isn't too savoury at all: A short term prevalence to one kind of "predatory type" human being, might be disasterous in the longer term, when general conditions change.

Without question, the best way is to retain genetic diversity, keep the gene pool healthy. We might need the hippies, badly, very soon...



Sat, 03/05/2011 - 19:35 | 1022572 trav7777
trav7777's picture

there's adequate genetic diversity WITHIN individual races and far more than sufficient within the high IQ races that we do not need the diversity of the others.

A global sterilization of everyone with an IQ less than 100 would still provide beyond ample genetic diversity.  There would be a pretty sharp dropoff in the population numbers of certain protected classes, but those could rebuild over time.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 19:48 | 1022592 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

trav, you are brilliant, but geeze... you do get scary sometimes

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 22:29 | 1022791 trav7777
trav7777's picture

lol your IQ below 100?

Let's just say that we were facing an Easter Island type situation, an imposition of real finite headroom onto a desire for growth.

What would be our appropriate course of action...divorce all empathy and just use logic.

I am actually more compassionate than the others.  They will deny reality until the island is deforested and everyone dies a horrible twitching death from famine and disease.  I would reduce population in a humane way; nobody is exterminated.  They simply don't reproduce.  Population declines and so does stupidity, illogic, crime, violence, and a whole host of other maladies.

Bartlett was right...there are things on the "right hand side" (view his series), war, famine, disease, death, abortion, sterility.  Either we choose them or nature WILL.  Mother nature always bats last and she has vicious opposite field power and massive plate coverage.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 00:07 | 1022936 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Makes perfect sence to me.

(Therefore my IQ is above 100, no doubt)

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 00:41 | 1022999 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

tough law to enforce.  the education and independence of women gets you most of the way there (or further) without the residual horrific kharma.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 01:41 | 1023089 snowball777
snowball777's picture

You know most of the banksters would be spared by your low bar, right?

Perhaps you have a fervent desire to be the garbage man of the future?

Maybe you can find a better sorting criterion?


Sun, 03/06/2011 - 17:25 | 1024248 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

IQ tests were devised to promote a certain type of "intelligence" - primarily white, european, educated "intelligence" - the type of knowledge that is taught in schools, and given grades based on the assimulation/memorisation factor.

In 1910 the eugenics movement in the USA seized on the Binet-Simon test as means to give them credibility in diagnosing mental retardation after American psychologist Henry H. Goddard published a translation of it that same year.[12] American psychologist Lewis Terman revised the Binet-Simon scale, implementing German psychologist William Stern’s intelligence quotient (I.Q.) ratio of mental age to chronological age and used the resulting Stanford-Binet scale as a measure of general intelligence.[13] Terman stated his view that Northern European whites were smarter than others in his 1916 book, The Measurement of Intelligence. [14] His test was used to implement the tracking of students in urban school districts, including Oakland and Detroit.

. . . because of course, those "urban" type folk don't have the same brains as the intellectual class, and the same goes for anyone else not in the class(room) of the euro-whites who made the whole story up to promote themselves.  How do you think they justified all the colonising of the world?  By telling the story repeatedly that they were the real humans, and everyone else were "child-like" or "simple" at best, or "savages" if the invaders needed to remove (kill) them.  Hello, empire?

Just ask Trav about who the real superiour race is, and which gendered sex for that matter - it will the one that he's in, trust me.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 22:18 | 1024940 trav7777
trav7777's picture

You're an should not reproduce.

The SB IQ test was not in ANY WAY intended to promote eugenics.  IQ tests have literally nothing whatsoever to do with a DESIRE to promote one type of person over another.  Some people may have seized on them in order to justify such a promotion- in case you didn't figure out by what I said earlier, moron, I AM ONE OF THOSE PEOPLE.  I pretty clearly stated as much, so if you think you are going to say OMG RACISSS EUGENICIST and I am going to, what?  I'm gonna fuckin deny it when I JUST SUGGESTED IT?

Does it occur to you that east asians have the HIGHEST average score on these exams?  WTF, reality shits on you again.  I am not east asian, btw.  But it doesn't matter, as a general case does not speak to a specific one. 

Besides, the low IQ races underperform in every test of cognition, not just SB.  Pick a test.  The reality of subsaharan Africa is that intelligence there is exceptionally low, which is why people walk miles for water instead of building pipes and why it has no history of even the indigenous written word.

My race or sex has nothing to do with me; I am an individual.  It is a matter of fact that whites and males have substantially higher sigmas to their IQ distributions than other what?  You may be a white male and you are still an idiot.  Being a white male doesn't endow you with the genius IQ of other white males by the virtue of the irrelevant color of your skin.  That skin covers an idiot.

NO race norming would be performed for a reproduction threshold; the tests are race-blind.  The reason africans average lower scores is because africans have lower average cognitive capacity.  This is just simply the way it is.

Math and abstract reasoning are not racist, you sniveling idiot, and IQ tests are not crafted to reflect memorization.  JFC, they give these tests the world over.  Do the world a favor and attempt to become educated.

For you to claim that there is a "white" and "european" intelligence is utterly absurd.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 22:20 | 1024955 trav7777
trav7777's picture

We need objective criteria.

Do you think a smart public would fall for this shylock shit?  The ZH community arrogates to itself a higher than average level of cognition and awareness; do you suppose that were the average person disposed of these endowments that things would have gotten this far?

As for my being the garbageman, lol.  I am a certifiable candidate for the alpha doubleplus island if there ever was one.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 02:07 | 1023109 Seer
Seer's picture

We agree on the fundamentals (vis a vis growth).  I don't think that the Easter Island analogy is correct, in that I'm sure that those who were responsible for perpetuating the cliff-walk were folks with higher IQs, not lower :-(

I'm kind of thinking that it's the higher IQ-ers that require larger population bases.  It's the larger populations that are required to support such people.  The rest of the animal kingdom, by comparison, operates more out of physical attributes than intelligence (yes, intelligence does help, but it doesn't tend to rule).  And in the rest of the animal kingdom all (with very few exceptions) carry their weight.

Lastly, IQ is a measure of knowledge of the human system, the very one that promote the grow-or-die paradigm.

It'll be war or Mother Nature applying corrections...

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 22:25 | 1024972 trav7777
trav7777's picture

the vast majority of people cannot understand geometric compounding.

So maybe we need to set the bar at 140; whatever.

The population needs to decrease and get smarter.  If at that point, we have to craft a BNW type outcome, fine.

Grow OR die leads to death because growth CANNOT continue forever.  I am a bacteria at 10 minutes to midnight sounding an alarm.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 17:56 | 1024321 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Either we choose them or nature WILL.  Mother nature always bats last and she has vicious opposite field power and massive plate coverage."

Damn straight, and Damn those laws of thermodynamics and physics.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 20:01 | 1024576 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Shes 1.0 in the clutch.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:50 | 1022669 Miss anthrope
Miss anthrope's picture

regrettably, I do agree

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 09:19 | 1023309 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

Reptil, with all due respect, part of the point is missed ( my fault ) and others seem to have missed all or part of the point.

If you family/clan has maintained wealth thru the decades it relies on finding like-kind thinking.  You are the families head and you have a son who you want to head the 'empire', you and your son understand what kind of woman he is to marry.  If your wealth is from arms sales, you don't marry a peace-nik.  If you are a drug kingpin your son doesn't marry a reformer.  The DNA/gene pool as it has been put here is a matter of like-thinking.   This is not selective breading per se, but simply keeping the goal fine tuned so the clad aim is not derailed.  And the point is that you can marry a company or mind set just as easy as a person.

I repeat, look at how the bankers act.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 17:39 | 1024274 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

like-mindedness, based on selection bias.

you can't be in their club if you don't hold the same point-of-view, literally. . . and because that point-of-view demands perceiving others as less-than, including less-than human based on their own standards of "human," there must be a narrowing towards the privileged at the top of the pyramid. . . else they wouldn't be "elite" of course.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 10:14 | 1023357 ibjamming
ibjamming's picture

White people we reign victorious as usual...we're the smartest AND the meanest.  And we have all the best weapons. 

Come on, an uprising...a REAL blood and guts uprising by the poor/minorities...will be the end of the black/brown...or back to slavery.  Let's be real.  They don't stand a chance.  They can't make their own way during prosperity and look at the "deer in the headlights" look we got during Katrina.  White people in North Dakota pulled themselves out of blizzards and floods without ANY help.  It's what WE do...and it's what THEY do.  So stop with the "equality" bullshit.

Oh...  White people LOVE to hunt!  Why the fuck do you think we're always in a war somewhere? will be good to get more of the "predatory yupr" human beings.  All the real men are locked up right now.  It WILL be bad for women and pussies...but that's the way it's supposed to be.


Good luck to you in the future...

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 21:43 | 1022723 Nassim
Nassim's picture

I think this explains rather well what you are trying to say:


The Trick of the Psychopath's Trade: Make Us Believe that Evil Comes from Others



Sun, 03/06/2011 - 15:29 | 1023916 ArmchairRevolut...
ArmchairRevolutionary's picture

Thanks for the link. That was a very interesting read.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 12:48 | 1023561 Nostradumbass
Nostradumbass's picture

: )

: )

"These powerful people have hundreds of generations of fine tuned family DNA, hand picked marriages for the right children to execute the familys' plans, and to hand the legacy to their yet unborn aire worthy to continue their kingdoms."

Yet just ONE truly awake Being can throw over all of this planning... No worries.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:39 | 1022659 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I see a major rise in the price of livestock, called horses.

Never though a comeback would happen for them.


Sat, 03/05/2011 - 21:10 | 1022696 wisefool
wisefool's picture

No. It takes an acre of pasture to support one horse. Not mention the fences,water, meds, furrier and shit shoveling. In most areas you can go to craigslist and get just about any 8+ year old horse (including top pedigrees and training) for free provided you don't outright say you are going to eat it.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 21:22 | 1022711 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Ouch! Is that true?Are people eating horses?



Sun, 03/06/2011 - 00:08 | 1022944 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

They have been eating horses in Europe for about, oh, 3000 years.


Doesn't seem to have harmed them much.


Get real.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 04:56 | 1023197 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Ok Crisis, I'll get real if you say so. I knew they ate them in Japan, but not in the US.

And france too actually.

Did you know they eat dogs in Korea? Of course you did. You are... so real.

And by the way, did you mean it hasn't harmed the horses much? Eh? Or the Europeans?


Sun, 03/06/2011 - 05:51 | 1023217 RichardP
RichardP's picture

He:  Where have you been?

She:  Woking the dog.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 12:28 | 1023521 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture


There remains little doubt in my mind that domesticated canines (as well as felines) will become an endangered species in the near future. Once Westerners overcome their conditioned aversion to the concept of eating the flesh of certain animals, due to the prevalence of famine/mass starvation, then the act of eating dog or cat meat will be relished as a delicacy.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 01:51 | 1023096 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Note the message about our little Spalding...

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 02:19 | 1023117 Seer
Seer's picture

And in my corner of the world (US) a good portion of the community's animal rescue budget is consumed by horses.  What bugs me about this is that horses aren't really classified as "pets," though one is hard-pressed to find any real utility in them.  Yes, SOME are used to do work, but very few of them.

Horses tend to be like boats, things that make money disappear.  I've heard them referred to has "lawn ornaments."  Based on all the "horse" properties that I ran across that were for sale while I was looking at property, I refer to horses as "home wreckers."

In the future horse will have some value in initial land clearing/plowing (after intitial work no-plow farming works fine) and in hauling, but that's about it.  OK, maybe in the longer-term they'll provide more transportation, but it'll be a rich person's domain.

Because there hasn't been active raising of horses as meat in the US I don't think it's ever likely going to take root.  Plenty of knowledge already exists for raising other animals: and, if one looks around the globe, as well as what history says, it's goats, sheep and then cattle.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 14:28 | 1022086 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

A few years ago when the US was drinking oil like crazy, it turns out that the oil was going into the petroleum reserve.  Then all of a sudden, the US stopped putting oil into the reserve and every tanker in the world had no place to put all the oil.  Oil crashed, the markets crashed, and the depression was on.  Now, years later, things have improved so much that once again the US is drinking oil like crazy.  The only problem is is that I don't see consumers being the ones buying all the oil.  The unemployed are not burning all that gas.  The huge number of people on food stamps aren't burning all that gas.  So where is all this prosperity coming from, because my (lying) eyes just don't see it.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 16:08 | 1022285 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Look west.  West of the Pacific.  Then you'll see it.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 09:26 | 1023320 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

the numbers maybe lying, we have a long history of that.

But speculation/hedging is what is driving up the price right now, not demand.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 15:15 | 1022171 misterc
misterc's picture

"You can build a throne made of bayonets, but you cannot sit on it for long." (Boris Jelzin)

It's all in that one sentence.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:53 | 1022675 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Give you a severe case of ROIDS.

I'll tell you who I BLAME for most of this mess.

Congress and the Green Movement.

We should have been drilling, exploring anywhere we could,even if we hit a deposit(Cap it),for times like now.

Nuke plants should be providing 75-80% of our power NOW.

All these OFF limit Green Shitheads drilling areas should have been stomped out long ago.

Kickbacks to Congress, and Enviro Nazi's have caused this to hit a lot faster.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 01:47 | 1023093 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture


Hmmm ...

Drilling is fine but you have to drill where there actually is oil. Just drilling for its own sake is a waste of money.

The oil business is good @ finding oil. The US has more oil wells and recovers more oil than all the other countries. Most US wells only produce about 15 barrels per day. Since these stripper wells have little value to large companies they are well managed. This is unlike many of the expensive deepwater projects such as Thunderhorse ... or Macondo.

The so- called off limit areas don't have enough oil to justify the expense of production. Ditto oil shale and kerogen resourses. The only way to get new oil for America is get rid of the carz or conquer somebody else's oil.

How did that Iraq thingy work for ya?

Nuke plants are also too expensive to build and operate as electric rates high enough to support the project reduce the customer return: supply and demand. You have to understand that people who plan power plants calculate in advance whether their plants will make money or not.

Nuke plant costs $7 billion or more (one in Finland is $13b). These cannot be built without government subsidies such as guaranteed liability limits.

Any real 'conservatives' out there against corporate welfare?

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 15:37 | 1023933 ArmchairRevolut...
ArmchairRevolutionary's picture

I disagree with your assessment of nuclear plants.  The cost you cite is for traditional nuclear plants (the same plants we built in the 1970's).  There are ideas for smaller scale plants that could deliver electricity to small and mid sized towns. (They still require research ... but I think it is something that could be done in a small number of years).

The real reason that we do not have nuclear: the power of the coal and oil industries.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 01:55 | 1023102 snowball777
snowball777's picture

"EnviroNazis" have ZERO political power...nor do they manage the insurance industry (the real stumbling block for nuclear, assuming you can get past the finite nature of the input materials). And we HAVE been exploring "anywhere we could", but that doesn't make fossil fuels any more abundant or drilling out in deeeeep water any less hazardous.

The 'victim mentality' of your type is hilarious in the extreme to anyone with more than two neurons.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 15:43 | 1022224 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

I agree with most of your comments except, your assumption that the "great unwashed" will take action. They will not. The great "whine" will be heard and nothing else. This is but one in a long line of major problems to be solved. Each problem will have its day in the sun and will accumulate on the rotten heap of our collective political system, until our society implodes.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 02:38 | 1023129 Seer
Seer's picture

I think that both of you are operating at the extremes here.

First, as you note, there won't be some big mass awakening.

Second, "nothing else" is stated as though it's not a "solution."  There's too much place in the notion that "something has to be done."  Per Eric Sevareid's great quote: "The chief cause of problems is solutions."

I'd add, given that nothing is permanent, that there are NO "solutions," just adjustments.

Non-action in an environment/system/paradigm shouldn't be misconstrued as not being an action.  Was it the Myans who realized their civilization was toast and decided to just walk away from it?  To the System there was inaction, but for those walking away from it it WAS action.


Sat, 03/05/2011 - 15:53 | 1022250 covert
covert's picture

it would be great! the king of arabia would go broke and the muslim propiganda would stop. Liberty is the NATURAL ORDER. Liberty would be restored again. that just leaves the question of what about the military needs?


Sat, 03/05/2011 - 12:55 | 1021901 yabyum
yabyum's picture

The higher it goes, the more the middle class will be crushed. We never needed a middle class anyway, just ask those countries burning in the middle east.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 12:55 | 1021902 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

I heard they have been 'fracking' some played out Oil Wells with great success. Oil literally gushing out. Anyone have knowledge of this?

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 13:08 | 1021921 cossack55
cossack55's picture

It is most effective along known fault lines. Ask Arkansas.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 14:04 | 1022030 Biff Malibu
Biff Malibu's picture

Look for the documentary called "Gasland", I believe it's on HBO.  Very informative on fracking...


Sat, 03/05/2011 - 15:31 | 1022174 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

"Gasland" a sycophant EPA fanatics scare the shit out of an ignorant populace moment. A few isolated incidents of gas that burps up on isolated properties and before you know it dumb shit regulatory policies follow.

People that have problems with gas coming out of their faucet need to get creative and put that gas to use.


Sat, 03/05/2011 - 16:23 | 1022300 nasa
nasa's picture

Maybe one of these people can invite you and your family over for a couple glasses of tap. 

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 19:11 | 1022538 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I'll take more than a few glasses.  I'll take as much as they can pump, and burn it for fuel.  Use the money from the generated electricity to pay for them to ship in water for their use, and I'll keep the rest for myself.  Problem solved.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 21:11 | 1022698 nasa
nasa's picture

Problem solved?   How about you move your family to one of these fracking sites and we will see if you are talking the same shit 24 hours later.   

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 02:42 | 1023134 Seer
Seer's picture

You assume that there's water available AND that someone actually would be paying for this energy.  When it stops being extracted there will still be crap in the water tables.

Food, shelter and water.  Clearly you're missing the fundamentals (evolution will eventually correct for this).

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 18:22 | 1022484 Biff Malibu
Biff Malibu's picture

with all due respect, I didn't get that impression of the movie at all.  Very well done, and very informative...

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 18:37 | 1022502 SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

If you decide to stop just running your mouth to hear yourself make noise you might want to read this.

Read the section:  potential for groundwater contamination.  Look at the two open pit pics and imagaine the pits are in arid desert land where water is scarce and wild animals and livestock will drink wherever they can find water. Even when the pit fences are maintained by the O&G companies (which is rare) they are even more rarely covered with anything that blocks waterfowl, hawks, songbirds from landing for a drink.  The most common concern with citizens who live on lands where fracking is taking place is the O&G companies' refusal to list the chemicals they use in the frack process. They say it is confidential; we say we have a right to know what poisons they are pumping into their evaporation pits and leaching onto public lands used by local citizens and relied upon by ranchers.  Back off a little.  you'd have similar concerns if no one would tell you what poisons were being pumped across your neighborhood suburb park lawns.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:53 | 1022664 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Screw that, its leeching into our underground aquifers.

Ever got a whiff of petro from your faucet?.

Well folks around me, have found out the hard way.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 22:41 | 1022807 Jim Quinn
Jim Quinn's picture

I wrote an article on the movie Gasland.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 14:05 | 1023732 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Without adequate regulatory oversight, it would be difficult to measure the degree of groundwater contamination. Even less likely is any expectation of legal accountability being enforced. The level of corporate corruption within the US government has made any recourse from regulatory incompetence or unlawful collusion a literal impossibility.

As to some of the "proprietary" compounds listed in your link:

Foaming agent F104 = (2-BE) Ethylene glycol monobutyl ether (ester salt)

Corrosion inhibitor A186 = thiourea (or ethyl methyl chlorides)

organic acid L36 = Formic acid

Chelating agent = (probably) citric acid

Biocide B69 = 2,2 dibromo-3 nitrilopropionamide (DBNPA)

PSG polymer slurry J877 = unknown (acute toxicity to fish)

Coalbed methane additive J473 = Oxyalkylated alkyl alcohol

Borate crosslinker J532 = Aliphatic polyol and sodium tetraborate

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 02:50 | 1023138 Seer
Seer's picture

You're mixing two issues.  That regulatory policies would "follow" says nothing of the realities/facts of the issue itself.  Take ANY issue and I'll show you people who are profiting off of it; and just because there are folks profiting it does not necessarily follow that the thing is some conspiracy.

Further, regulations = laws.  I often wonder how "free trade/liberty only" folks (who are typically NOT anarchists) can on one hand demand rights to "private property" and on the other dismiss laws in general.  Seems a lot of cherry picking going on...

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:03 | 1022616 voltaic
voltaic's picture

There's an excellent NYT report on fracking that has this as one of its highlights:


With hydrofracking, a well can produce over a million gallons of wastewater that is often laced with highly corrosive salts, carcinogens like benzene and radioactive elements like radium, all of which can occur naturally thousands of feet underground. Other carcinogenic materials can be added to the wastewater by the chemicals used in the hydrofracking itself.

While the existence of the toxic wastes has been reported, thousands of internal documents obtained by The New York Times from the Environmental Protection Agency, state regulators and drillers show that the dangers to the environment and health are greater than previously understood.

Radioactive waste was pumped into the Monongahela near Pittsburgh and residents had to drink bottled water for a time. Not much MSM news about that environmental mess. Seems oil and gas compannies are simply dumping waste wherever they can get away with it.  


Sat, 03/05/2011 - 14:13 | 1022052 avonaltendorf
avonaltendorf's picture

You misunderstand the scale of what's needed to keep USA, Germany, Japan, Korea functioning. You also misunderstand that horizontal completion and fracking doesn't add anything to proved reserves. Drains oil and gas reservoirs faster at higher cost, with a steeper rate of decline. Saudi Aramco is doing it with water flood and a 95% water cut. Onshore domestic "workovers" are a spit in the ocean.


Good job, Jim.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 14:37 | 1022100 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

"I heard they have been 'fracking' some played out Oil Wells with great success. Oil literally gushing out. Anyone have knowledge of this?"


Yep...and if you don't mind benzine, diesel fuel, and 500 other DNA altering chemicals in your drinking water...that 'Fracking' thing is a great idea, especially if you live where they aren't doing it.  Of course the dead kids and women with cancer, and sterility and memory disorders in men are collateral damage and one must accept these things as being in the national interest.

Been doing it with natural gas too...all this 'fracking' activity slipping right thru some loop holes in the Federal law.  Now the Feds being such concerned folks about the health of it citizens has told the States is your problem.  Boy ask Arkansas, and Mississippi how they like it.

Gota love America, home of the brave, where the outlaws run free.


Sat, 03/05/2011 - 15:14 | 1022170 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Interview on Bloomberg radio past two days.  Lotta' watta' needed.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:34 | 1022650 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I heard 'fracking' requires so much water its dumber than tits on a bull.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 12:57 | 1021903 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

When WTI hits $150, and the grocery store shelves begin to empty due to another trucking industry shutdown, then perhaps it will become more evident to Americans that "this time is different".

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 15:20 | 1022182 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

What you all fail to realize is what just happened in the Gulf with BP was the result of an enzyme that BP bio-engineered in order to improve flow and yield.

This enzyme will change the game somewhat.

Too, the current price per barrel is for good reason. A chart that was presented by Tyler a while ago:

Look at the category 'Oil Exporters'. That column will increase to about $1000($BN) over the next 4 to 5 years.

This $130-$150/bbl oil is just another tax to keep the US solvent. The consumers pay the tax and the oil exporters invest the proceeds into US ponzi products, or else.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 17:17 | 1022368 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

This $130-$150/bbl oil is just another tax to keep the US solvent. The consumers pay the tax and the oil exporters invest the proceeds into US ponzi products, or else.


Consider three major ways the federal government sucks wealth from Americans to fund its wild spending party:

* Taxes of various sorts,

* Fed buying treasury debt with freshly printed dollars inflating the money supply, reducing the value of the dollar,

* Keeping prices high on consumer imports so those nations can buy more treasury debt.

All together probably 50% - 60% of middle class incomes.

Then the next thing, confiscating middle class 401ks, IRAs, etc, plus state & local government pension funds. 


Sun, 03/06/2011 - 03:03 | 1023147 Seer
Seer's picture

"Consider three major ways the federal government sucks wealth from Americans to fund its wild spending party"

You're free to bash government all you want, but doing so isn't going to address the fundamental issues.  I could just as easily substitute "Chamber of Commerce" for "government" and get the exact same angle.

The FACT that so many miss is this: all of these power centers have been functioning off of growth, and now that growth is dead they are collapsing.  I challenge anyone to present some growth-based "solution" to a debate on its long-term viability.

Think about what you're saying, the govt wants us to spend more money that goes out of the country?  Sorry, but this makes ZERO sense.  Did you not notice where all the current trillions of (future generations') money has been going lately?  Financials!  Do you know why?  It's because it's BIG business that's in control of goverment.  Ask yourself if it's in Their interest that we ship more of our money out of the country, to everyone's favorite oil exporting country?  This flat out fails the logic test.

Yes, short-term there's a tax-stream revenue push, but to think that folks in government don't believe that this is just that, short-term, well...  It's all a matter of trying to buy time, waiting for the finance wizards to come up with another bubble-making venture (unlike the previous bubbles, the current one is ALL govt blown, the "private" sector has crashed because it saw reality first- growth is dead [but no one is talking about it because that would stampede the masses]).

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 17:58 | 1022442 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"This $130-$150/bbl oil is just another tax to keep the US solvent. The consumers pay the tax and the oil exporters invest the proceeds into US ponzi products, or else."


They played this game in the 1970s.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 03:07 | 1023150 Seer
Seer's picture

As someone who has been active in the bicycle community (as a bicycle repair person as well as a commuter), I would like to point out that NOT ALL bicycle repairmen support your views.

If you think that this is some sort of silly game, then you're in for a BIG surprise.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 06:02 | 1023224 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Stick around and keep your eyes open, sonny.  This film has played already.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 16:13 | 1022289 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

That, sir, is the only thing this article's writer has somewhat wrong.

It's a very good article about the reality of life upcoming without using peak oil wording that enrages those still in denial.  But good as it is, it does not extrapolate about impacts.

When he says there are solutions that could be put into place in 10 years (there aren't btw), he doesn't extrapolate the results on society of the lack of shipping that would PRECLUDE any 10 year program.  Those people on that program have to eat and they will nave no food.  It can't ship to them.

That, in the end, is the definitive reality.  Crash programs don't get put into play until an emergency demands them, and when that emergency arrives, its nature will preclude a crash program.

5 billion people are going to die.  Soon.  Try not to be one of them.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 17:58 | 1022447 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

You are out of your mind.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 19:16 | 1022550 tmosley
tmosley's picture

He's a death worshipper.  He refuses to contemplate anything else, and instead masturbates to "The Road" all day and all night.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 19:46 | 1022586 captain_menace
captain_menace's picture

You say this like it's a bad thing...

What's not to be attracted to?

  • Guns
  • Ammo
  • Canned goods
  • Cannibals
  • And a very svelte looking Vigo Mortensen
Sun, 03/06/2011 - 03:10 | 1023152 Seer
Seer's picture

Yeah?  Well... better to be out of one than to be without one...

Grow a pair and debate.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 18:56 | 1022522 impending doom
impending doom's picture

5 billion people aren't going to die as long as there are other people to eat.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 19:43 | 1022582 captain_menace
captain_menace's picture

Soylent Green isn't just for breakfast any more...


Sat, 03/05/2011 - 20:25 | 1022639 XPolemic
XPolemic's picture

5 billion people aren't going to die as long as there are other people to eat.

When that happens I will be long pepper and chilli (apparently human flesh tastes disgusting).

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 12:59 | 1021904 fragrantdingleberry
fragrantdingleberry's picture

Thank you Rev. Malthus for another end of times rant. You wouldn't be one of those "experts" you rail about would you? Oil will be replaced with natural gas and coal alternatives. Don't worry, be happy.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 13:46 | 1021984 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

Agreed, but we need a whole lot of new infra structure to make Nat Gas an alternative that is available country wide at a relatively ubiquitous price.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 18:00 | 1022448 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

The USA is currently swimming in USA-produced natural gas.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 03:22 | 1023156 Seer
Seer's picture

Great, another two-dimensional thinker!

No mention of HOW Much ("swimming," yeah, that sounds like something to make critical business decisions off of!), or, more importantly, HOW LONG?

HOW LONG = rate of consumption.  For how long would this "swimming" amount last if everyone were to switch to NG today?

But all of this is pretty much moot given that the fundamentals are: Food, shelter and water; "transportation" isn't on that list (most of us were born with two legs and feet to get around on).

I don't know the percentages, but a fair amount ("swimming" amount?) comes as a by-product of oil extraction.  And unlike oil field depletion curves, NG depletion curves are extreme.

BTW - I supported T. Boone Pickens' propsal to push NG for trasport fuel, but even he did not believe that NG was going to be anything other than a short-term "gap" "solution."

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 00:07 | 1022935 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Wouldn't that have been a "jobs program" worth doing under Stimulus, instead of replacing perfectly good roads and sidewalks?

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 03:34 | 1023160 Seer
Seer's picture

I don't know about "perfectly good" roads and sidewalks, but long ago I was a critic of pushing more money toward more roads (or "light rail").  It was probably about 10 years ago that I'd come up with the only thing that I think could have gotten traction:

Drastically cut new road construction and rebate the taxes back to local businesses hiring local people.  The idea was to reduce spending on a highly unsustainable infrastructure while shifting the focus back on local communities.  The "local hiring" point was a commute trip reduction incentive on steroids (in reality it was a roll-back of taxes which were used to subsidize a failing infrastructure).  I thought that it could have a chance seeing as the prevailing political parties couldn't create a political division, figuring that most businesses are "local" and are small.  Sigh... as we saw in the housing bubble, the construction sector was more powerful than any other (well, with the full support of the financial sector that is), thanks to the Chamber of Commerce.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 13:54 | 1022001 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

You do know how many products require oil? Literally everything. Not everyone can switch over to a nat gas vehicle and the promise of hybrid cars is pretty much gone now with China halting exports of rare earth metals.


Sat, 03/05/2011 - 14:54 | 1022076 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

This article is the truth, The last guy to state the truth about oil reserves was about 25 years ago when all the world reserves started getting massively inflated in many cases doubling almost overnight, was from Shell Oil. He came clean and told the truth cutting Shells reserves in half, stock tanked, and he was prompty fired. You see they learned back in the 80s that if they overstate their in the ground on paper reserves, its hard to say they do not have it and the investor money pours in (Kinda remind you of a gold fund? lol). Almost all the world reserves doubled and tripled in a short time with not one elephant field besides the North sea. No one has been brave enough to tell the truth since. Americans with their thirty minute attention spans do not seem to recall the last time oil spiked Saudi Arabia said they would step up production but struggled to increase production. They have been injecting salt water in the wells to keep up pressure which increases flow rates but reduces longevity of the wells. I think the Saudi Kingdoms wells have seen their best days. And what does washington (small cap disrespect noted) do? Keeps pissing on Iran, Iraq,Russia and Venezuela, the next biggest holders if you don't count tar sand.  The bad part is Commercial fertilizers, to get those 220 bushel to the acre corn crops from 40 bushel per acre land comes from oil, Forget the Big green Tractor. Want to know how much food comes from land without chemical fertilizers? Look no further than crop production numbers from North Korea. Our real live case study in agriculture w/o oil, kinda like Japan is our real time example of Keynesian sucess. 

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 16:07 | 1022282 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

Wpw - Great analogies and dot connecting on the living experiements amongst us. Korea and Japan are a window to our future.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 03:44 | 1023162 Seer
Seer's picture

I agree with everything except your statement that land cannot be as productive w/o synthesized fertilizers.  Even the WTO (?) has papers showing otherwise.  But, this still doesn't let things off the food hook, as in order to get land back to being productive in a more natural way can't be done overnight.

North Korea is just a good example of really bad land, climate.  We've had a good example (one can debate the politics, but it's a good study) in Cuba.  Cuba's food system was turned upside down when the Soviet Union collapsed- no more subsidized oil.  In most of the US-media controlled world we weren't to hear that Cuba and their "evil commie leader" didn't get crushed, but that they prevailed (politics aside).  I know enough to understand that more sunshine does NOT mean a better growing environment- tropical soils take a beating (rapid oxidization, soils tend to be pretty thin), but it's hard to debate that Cuba's growing conditions aren't signficantly better than North Korea's.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 18:13 | 1024351 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

He is correct.  Whether the energy for converting gaseous nitrogen to ammonia comes from oil, nat gas, or coal is irrelevant.  It still takes a tremendous amount of energy to break the triple bond between nitrogen atoms and reduce, using low potential (high energy) electrons to ammonia.  Look up the Habor Bosch process.  There is a Natural process for "nitrogen fixation" but it is slow due to the thermodynamics (sorry crop rotation won't help, thermodynamics are a bitch).

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 18:01 | 1022450 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Completely wrong.

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