Guest Post: There Are No Good Outcomes

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform

There Are No Good Outcomes

The political class and their mouthpieces in the corporate controlled
mainstream media are desperately trying to spin the oil price surge as a
temporary inconvenience that will not derail their phony recovery
story. Brent crude closed at $116 per barrel yesterday. West Texas crude
closed at $104 per barrel. Unleaded gas has risen by 22% in the last
month and 60% since September 1, 2010. I’m sure this slight increase
hasn’t impacted Ben Bernanke or Lloyd Blankfein. Their limo drivers just
charge it to their unlimited expense accounts. Joe Sixpack, driving his
15 mpg Dodge RAM pickup, is now forking over an extra $1,200 per year
in gas expenditures, not to mention more for everything impacted by oil
such as food, utilities, and anything transported to their local
Wal-Mart by truck (everything). Luckily, the Federal Reserve and crooked
politicians only care about their comrades in the top 1% elitist
society, for whom oil is an investment, not an expense.  

               UNLEADED GAS 

The “experts” speak as if they know what will happen, even
though they never saw the rebellions coming in Tunisia, Egypt or Libya.
They assure the masses that Libya doesn’t really have an impact on U.S.
oil supply. It’s as if these shills never took Econ 101 in college.
World oil demand is 88 million barrels per day. Oil supply is 88 million
barrels per day. If 1 million barrels of oil supply are taken off-line,
it doesn’t matter that the U.S. doesn’t get their oil from Libya. The
Italians need their oil. Do the talking heads understand that oil is
fungible? The supplier will ship the oil to the highest bidder.
Presto!!! – $116 a barrel oil.

With Friends Like This, Who Needs Enemies

Let’s assess the probability of things getting better in the near,
medium, long term or ever term. Take a gander at the chart below. These
countries account for 29% of the daily world oil supply. Does it strike
you as a list of stable countries with happy populations of employed
young men?  Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iran have already experienced
revolution or are on the verge of revolution. Algeria is dead man
walking. The Saudi royal family is trying to buy off the masses to stay
in power. The revolution genie is out of the bottle. It can’t be put
back. Mix 40% unemployment, with millions of young men, no hope, and
some Muslim fundamentalism and you’ve got yourself an out of control
situation. No amount of public relations spin will create a positive
outcome for the United States. The existing world order of despots,
kings, and military juntas was just fine for Washington DC. They poured
hundreds of billions of “aid”, tanks, helicopters and missiles to these
“freedom fighter” despots who diverted the billions to their Swiss bank
accounts and fell into line with U.S. policy. No matter who takes power
when these revolutions succeed in toppling our puppets, the new regimes
will not be friendlier toward America. And they still have the oil. 

	Proven Oil	Oil
Country	Reserves (bil barrels)	Production Per Day
Saudi Arabia	265	8,400,000
Iran	137	3,700,000
Iraq	115	2,700,000
UAE	98	2,300,000
Kuwait	102	2,300,000
Libya	46	1,600,000
Algeria	12	1,300,000
Qatar	25	820,000
Oman	6	810,000
Egypt	4	742,000
Syria	3	376,000
Yemen	3	298,000

One look at the chart of self reported world oil reserves paints a
picture of woe for the United States. Countries in the tinderbox of the
Middle East and Africa control 65% of the world’s oil reserves. Saudi
Arabia controls 20%, Iran and Iraq control 11% each, Venezuela controls
7%, Russia 5%, and Libya 3%. So, countries that can barely stomach our
existence, hate us, or just despise us, control 57% of the world’s
remaining oil. Sounds like a recipe for lower oil prices in the future.
The two countries on our border are the only dependable suppliers for
the U.S. Canada controls 13% of the world oil reserves, mostly in its
tar sands. Mexico controls just over 1% of the world’s oil reserves, but
supplies 13% of the U.S. daily oil supply.

Drill, Baby, Drill

Now for a reality check on the “Drill Baby Drill” propagandists like
Larry Kudlow and the other dishonest Republican shills. The United
States controls a full 1.58% of the remaining oil reserves in the world.
We have 21.3 billion barrels of reserves versus 264 billion barrels in
Saudi Arabia. We are currently producing 9 million barrels per day. At
that production rate, the U.S. will deplete its proven reserves in the
next 6 to 10 years. New discoveries will not be able to keep up with
depletion of existing wells. The good news just keeps coming. Mexico’s
oil production has been dependent upon one giant oil field since 1976.
The Cantarell oil field produced 2.1 million barrels per day in 2003 at
its peak. It is currently producing 464,000 barrels per day. Peak oil
has arrived in Mexico. By 2015, the country that currently supplies 13%
of our daily oil supply will become a net importer of oil. Drill Baby
Drill. 

Based upon the monthly import data below from the IEA, it would
appear that, to paraphrase Chief Brody in Jaws, we’re going to need more
corn. As the Obama administration operates in denial of these simple
facts, they will continue to push ethanol and Chevy Volts to save us
from dirty oil. We are already diverting 40% of our corn crop to the
ethanol boondoggle. I’m sure that has nothing to do with the 98%
increase in corn prices in the last year. Maybe tax credits for solar
panels on SUVs and rubber band propeller cars will save the day.

We know for a fact that Mexico’s 1.2 million barrels per day will
evaporate in the next few years. But, at least we have that solid
dependable 2.7 million barrels per day (30% of our daily imports) from
those stable bastions of democracy Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, Angola, and
Algeria. Makes you want to go out and buy a Hummer. The storyline being
sold to the American people is that there is no need to worry. Saudi
Arabia will step to the plate and make up for any shortfalls throughout
the world. Just one problem. Saudi Arabia is lying about their reserves
and their ability to increase production. They’d fit in very well in
Congress and on Wall Street.

Crude Oil Imports (Top 15 Countries) (Thousand Barrels per Day)
Country	Dec-10	Nov-10	YTD 2010	Dec-09	YTD 2009
CANADA	2,064	1,975	1,972	2,104	1,943
MEXICO	1,223	1,229	1,140	1,063	1,092
SAUDI ARABIA	1,076	1,119	1,080	870	980
NIGERIA	1,024	806	986	1,020	776
VENEZUELA	825	884	912	772	951
IRAQ	336	340	414	325	449
ANGOLA	307	263	380	266	448
BRAZIL	271	188	254	181	295
ALGERIA	262	379	325	336	281
COLOMBIA	220	489	338	179	251
ECUADOR	192	188	195	86	181
RUSSIA	158	85	252	168	230
KUWAIT	125	170	195	160	180
UNITED KINGDOM	124	80	120	67	103
ARGENTINA	85	35	29	33	53

Lies, Obfuscation, Misinformation & Denial

The late Matt Simmons made the strong case In his book Twilight in the Desert that
Saudi Arabia has been lying about their reserves for years. Documents
released by Wikileaks give support to this contention. Cables from the
U.S. Embassy in Riyadh , released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take
seriously a warning from senior Saudi government oil executive Sadad
al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil
monopoly Aramco, that the kingdom’s crude oil reserves may have been
overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.
The UK Guardian reported:

According to the cables, which date
between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m
barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 –
global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch
point is known as “peak oil”.

Husseini said that at that point Aramco
would not be able to stop the rise of global oil prices because the
Saudi energy industry had overstated its recoverable reserves to spur
foreign investment. He argued that Aramco had badly underestimated the
time needed to bring new oil on tap.

One cable said: “According to
al-Husseini, the crux of the issue is twofold. First, it is possible
that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described, and the
timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramco and energy
optimists would like to portray.”

The US consul then told Washington:
“While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he
is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand
that his predictions be thoughtfully considered.”

A fourth cable, in October 2009,
claimed that escalating electricity demand by Saudi Arabia may further
constrain Saudi oil exports. “Demand [for electricity] is expected to
grow 10% a year over the next decade as a result of population and
economic growth. As a result it will need to double its generation
capacity to 68,000MW in 2018,” it said.

It also reported major project delays
and accidents as “evidence that the Saudi Aramco is having to run harder
to stay in place – to replace the decline in existing production.”
While fears of premature “peak oil” and Saudi production problems had
been expressed before, no US official has come close to saying this in
public.

The overstatement of reserves by Saudi
Arabia and most of the OPEC countries should be abundantly clear to
anyone with a smattering of critical thinking skills. This eliminates
just about everyone on CNBC or Fox News. Essentially, the self reported,
unaudited declared oil reserves from OPEC members are a fraud.
Production quotas for each member of OPEC are dependent upon their oil
reserve amount. When this was instituted in the early 1980s, shockingly
OPEC countries miraculously added nearly 300 billion barrels to proven
reserves in a six year period with NO NEW DISCOVERIES of oil. The chart
below shows the unexplained jumps in reserves in red. Do you honestly
believe any self reported number from Iran or Venezuela? Dr. Ali Samsam
Bakhtiari, a former senior expert of the National Iranian Oil Company,
has estimated that Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates have overstated reserves by a combined 320–390 billion barrels
and has said, “As for Iran, the usually accepted official 132 billion
barrels is almost one hundred billion over any realistic estimate.”

Using some common sense, someone might ask,
“How could Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves remain above 260 million for the
last 22 years despite pumping over 60 billion barrels during this time
frame, and not making any major new discoveries?” Maybe their
statisticians did their training at Goldman Sachs or the Federal
Reserve. The monster Saudi oil fields are over 40 years old. They will
deplete. Oil is finite. They will not refill abiotically like some
crackpots contend. Saudi Arabia’s production peaked in 2005 and it has
been unable to reach that level since. The spin sheiks in Riyadh and
spin doctors in Washington DC cannot spin oil out of sand. Peak oil is
about to choke the American way of life.    

Declared reserves of major Opec Producers (billion of barrels)
BP Statistical Review – June 2009
Year	Iran	Iraq	Kuwait	Saudi Arabia	UAE	Venezuela	Libya	Nigeria
1980	58.3	30.0	67.9	168.0	30.4	19.5	20.3	16.7
1981	57.0	32.0	67.7	167.9	32.2	19.9	22.6	16.5
1982	56.1	59.0	67.2	165.5	32.4	24.9	22.2	16.8
1983	55.3	65.0	67.0	168.8	32.3	25.9	21.8	16.6
1984	58.9	65.0	92.7	171.7	32.5	28.0	21.4	16.7
1985	59.0	65.0	92.5	171.5	33.0	54.5	21.3	16.6
1986	92.9	72.0	94.5	169.7	97.2	55.5	22.8	16.1
1987	92.9	100.0	94.5	169.6	98.1	58.1	22.8	16.0
1988	92.9	100.0	94.5	255.0	98.1	58.5	22.8	16.0
1989	92.9	100.0	97.1	260.1	98.1	59.0	22.8	16.0
1990	92.9	100.0	97.0	260.3	98.1	60.1	22.8	17.1
1991	92.9	100.0	96.5	260.9	98.1	62.6	22.8	20.0
1992	92.9	100.0	96.5	261.2	98.1	63.3	22.8	21.0
1993	92.9	100.0	96.5	261.4	98.1	64.4	22.8	21.0
1994	94.3	100.0	96.5	261.4	98.1	64.9	22.8	21.0
1995	93.7	100.0	96.5	261.5	98.1	66.3	29.5	20.8
1996	92.6	112.0	96.5	261.4	97.8	72.7	29.5	20.8
1997	92.6	112.5	96.5	261.5	97.8	74.9	29.5	20.8
1998	93.7	112.5	96.5	261.5	97.8	76.1	29.5	22.5
1999	93.1	112.5	96.5	262.8	97.8	76.8	29.5	29.0
2000	99.5	112.5	96.5	262.8	97.8	76.8	36.0	29.0
2001	99.1	115.0	96.5	262.7	97.8	77.7	36.0	31.5
2002	130.7	115.0	96.5	262.8	97.8	77.3	36.0	34.3
2003	133.3	115.0	99.0	262.7	97.8	77.2	39.1	35.3
2004	132.7	115.0	101.5	264.3	97.8	79.7	39.1	35.9
2005	137.5	115.0	101.5	264.2	97.8	80.0	41.5	36.2
2006	138.4	115.0	101.5	264.3	97.8	87.3	41.5	36.2
2007	138.2	115.0	101.5	264.2	97.8	99.4	43.7	36.2
2008	137.6	115.0	101.5	264.1	97.8	99.4	43.7	36.2

The denial, accusations and misinformation have already begun.
Congressional hearings will be called to blame Big Oil and the dreaded
speculators. Americans always need a bogeyman to blame for their
mindless decisions and willingness to be led to slaughter by corrupt
politicians. Big oil companies do benefit from higher oil prices. Big
oil companies spend millions buying off Congressmen. Big oil
companies cut corners, ignore safety procedures, and seek profits by any
means possible. But, they do not control the oil. Nations control the
oil. Many of these nations are led by lying, corrupt, evil despots. That
is a fact. Blustering moronic Congressmen going after oil executives
and phantom speculators is just a sideshow. It will divert the
non-thinking masses from the truth that our leaders haven’t allowed a
refinery or nuclear power plant to be built since 1977. These leaders
have promoted and subsidized corn based ethanol that requires more
energy to produce than it creates and has driven the cost of our food
sky high. We are more dependent on foreign oil than any time in our
history.

The real speculators are the Americans who clog our highways every
morning driving monster SUVs, turbocharged sports cars, gas guzzling
minivans, and pickup trucks that make them feel like salt of the earth
tough guys despite living in their 6,000 square foot energy sucking
McMansions in suburban tracts 30 miles from their jobs, if they have
one. The ignorance of the average American car buyer knows no bounds.
The recent bounce back in auto sales was led by SUVs and pickups. The
green clean cars are nothing but hype and bullshit. GM expects to sell
about 10,000 Volts this year, and Nissan expects to sell about 25,000
Leafs in the United States, a piss in the ocean compared with the
millions of sport wagons and SUVs purchased by Americans annually.
Americans have the attention span of a gnat and are already dazed and
confused by the surge in gas prices to $3.50 per gallon.

When oil prices spiked to $147 barrel in 2008, Americans were
spending $467 billion per year for fuel. By early 2009, the collapse in
energy prices due to the worldwide recession reduced the annual
expenditure to $265 billion, freeing up over $200 billion for consumers
to spend on other items, pay down debt, or save. Expenditures for fuel
had already surged back to $400 billion before the recent spike in oil
prices. Next stop $500 billion. That should do wonders for the faux
economic recovery that has been touted by Obama and the MSM for the last
year. The years of denial, lies, indecision, bad decisions, and inertia
have left the country vulnerable and at the mercy of countries in far
off lands that despise our way of life.

There are no good outcomes, only bad, really bad, and catastrophic.
Take your pick. Could gas prices drop below $3.00 per gallon if the
world sinks back into recession? Yes. But it would only be momentary.
The easy to access supply is dwindling. The medium and long term
direction of gas at the pump is up. There is nothing that can be done in
the next five years to prevent significantly higher oil prices. A full
court press of realistic ideas like converting our truck fleets to
natural gas, a major effort to build nuclear power plants, more
drilling, greater use of wind, geothermal, and solar would take at least
a decade to have an impact. There is no consensus or resolve to
undertake such an effort. Therefore, Americans will suffer the
consequences. Be a good American and take advantage of GM’s no interest
for 7 years deal on their biggest baddest SUVs and buy two. What could
go wrong?

Comments

[Jim Quinn]

Worthless POS

[Bicycle Repairman]

LOL.  Temper, temper........

[Seer]

I sensed no emotion in that delivery.

[DosZap]

China does not have the majority of RE's, we have plenty here.

We just (as usual) taken the easy way out, and bought from them.

When we should be mining what we have, up until now, it was too expensive for the ROI to pay to mine and refine RE's.

Well its time.

[Seer]

But that still does not address the strategy of basing all of one's civilization on a very limited resource.  Never a thought past the immediate, and one day this will catch up with us...

[glenlloyd]

Besides the fact that the infrastructure to accomplish this en masse is lacking, transportation is not the only use of petroleum products, it is literally a part of everything in the economy.

I would rather have ominous warnings than what we're getting from mainstream media and govt. on this subject, which is basically nothing.

[Seer]

You, I, and others (who have a clue) don't need anyone from "mainstream" telling us what we already know.  We need but get on with constructing the future.

Why I bother to rebut a lot of the absurdities by the status-quo pushers (I'm sure that there are posters here being paid to support it) is to push the notion that we need to stop with subsidies!  Everyone clamouring to "allow" more drilling, more <fill in the blank>, are really helping push more subsidies to the rich elites.

[Dr. Porkchop]

You aren't going to flip the switch over to alternatives and get the same energy bang for buck. Also, where will the money come from to develop the infrastructure? Banks don't lend money for productive activity, only for ponzinomics. Pretty much every entity in the US public and private is basically insolvent. The piper will be paid.

The American way of life is negotiable after all.

[flattrader]

Recently read an article about a guy in an averaged size SMSA  who was seeking a business loan for a cooperative to build a sustainable fish farm greenhouse.  There a various working models including one that is a non-profit outside Mikwaukee, WI

http://www.growingpower.org/

[The founder won a McArthur Genius Award.]

It would cut the energy consumption from farm to table dramatically. [Components for the average American meal travel 1500 mi.]

Banks he approached apologized and said if it isn't corn or soybeans the don't understand it and can't do it.

This kind of idiot thinking must change and soon.

[cosmictrainwreck]

good luck with that [changing the idiot-think]

[DosZap]

They will when their families are starving, and no 18 wheelers are coming with food.

I can see a return to the early 1900's, small farming, and a return to old ways.

Suggest we start attending canning classes and buying seed and livestock, poultry, and hogs.

Back to the land, or die.

[Seer]

"Old ways" was about dealing with doing with less.  Although they weren't likely sustainable (that could only be proven out over MANY generations), it does conote sustainability.

[StychoKiller]

Banks he approached apologized and said if it isn't corn or soybeans the don't understand it and can't do it.

This kind of idiot thinking must change and soon.

If you cannot dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullsh!t!

He should've complicated the picture by running the numbers through various CDO/CDS financial instruments!

[Bad Asset]

Ultimately this will be our only option in the future.  Aquaponics.  These guys have a bunch of stuff on youtube, very cool.

[Seer]

"Ultimately this will be our only option in the future."

I find it hard to believe this when there's never been much of such activity in previous history, as well as not existing today.

This is permaculture stuff.  Sells lots of books.  2/3 of the world's population lives on $3/day or less, these are the people that LIVE ssustainably (as close to it- out of necessity, not as some experiment), and I'm not seeing that it's happening in this population.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's all way cool.  But... it's importance/viability is primarily about more promoting closed-loop systems*, which don't necessarily have to do with aquaponics.

* Closed-loop systems are really about intense management, intense resource management.  I follow this sort of thing in Management Intensive Grazing practices (which I one day hope to be able to kick into gear, when I get my land such that it can support larger livestock [crops are out of the question]).

[Segestan]

The numbers of course,  speak for themselves, inflation is here. But this sort of article is just what 50 years of Liberal geo-politics gets them... Communist propaganda. Revolutionist talk.

[trav7777]

you an idiot?

Do you ACTUALLY believe there are liberal communist environuts that are responsible for Mexico's production collapse?

Perhaps Indonesia has them too because they peaked a decade ago.

[Segestan]

Ya... I'm just an Idiot.

Next.

[Flakmeister]

  FWIW, you are demonstrating just that.

[Jim Quinn]

You said it brother. Idiot with a capital I.

[DavidPierre]

You said it brother. Idiot with a capital I.

Takes one to know one...

See

#780454

[Calmyourself]

Geesh, don't pissoff Trav, he will bitch, moan and scream about peak oil for days while calling you an &^%hole and F*&^%$ prick to boot.  Man's ingenuity has also hit peak and we are all going to die, if you will just internalize that you will do just fine on this thread..  Oh and remember domestic drilling or using nukes to boil up some tar sands or combination of Natural gas or any other damn thing is just gonna kill you a bit slower..

We straight?

[Flakmeister]

Trav, you were missed on an earlier thread, you would have had some fun with our favorite denier....

[trav7777]

I am sending my new apprentice, Darth Flakmeister; he will...take care of you

[Flakmeister]

FWIW, I am nobodies apprentice... :-)

[Spalding_Smailes]

Link .....

#1022027

Is this accounted for ????

[AnAnonymous]

Expansion knows only one cure: more expansion.

[Flakmeister]

Not avoiding.... just taking care of the Honey-Do list.

I will comment on that in full later.

[Spalding_Smailes]

Thankyou my friend. I'm also running out, will check back tonight for your thoughts, thanks again. All your thoughts and tips are appreciated by Spalding. 

No problem. I'm always trying to learn. And I trust your thoughts on this topic. Money where mouth is.

I never did real research on " peak oil topic ".

I'll also add this. A friend of mine's is married to one of the top 10 guys at William Blair daughter. He helped expand the firm around the globe. One of his clients leases land in europe to one of the large oil companies. The family gets royalty checks every month, huge family wealth thats all he deals with out of Japan & the Arab nations. The top 1-2%.

I only spoke with him twice, he's never home. But the first time I met him in 1999 as we discused the markets ect., he told me then to exit the markets and buy oil. Did not tell me how to buy oil ect., just a few words buy oil. Needless to say, I did not listen ( I was 28 at the time ) but I passed on the info to my parents and brother. They lost a ton in 2000-2002 in nasdaq.

I think oil was under $20.00 at the time.One smart mother fucker.

[trav7777]

I made comment on it.

At present growth rates, how long do you think we could last before peaking again even if we found DOUBLE the production we have now?  That means every single field in the world, we found another copy of them (inc Ghawar) tomorrow.  How long do you suppose this would forestall the INEVITABLE and INEXORABLE imposition of the headroom of finite systems against geometric growth?

A bottle contains bacteria...one of them at noon and the bottle is full at midnight; the bacteria double every minute.  At what time is the bottle half full? 

At that time if the bacteria manage to double their resource base by finding another bottle, how long does a whole 'nother world last them against their stated growth rate?  If they find a resource base 1024 TIMES as large, how long does this miracle last them?  At what time does a smart bacteria notice there is a problem with finite systems headroom (and the dumb bacteria laugh at him)?

Until you can get your head around this thought problem, you really should not comment about peak oil and resources under the polar cap.  Find me the growth rate of oil consumption and tell me how long we have before we have to double our current production, then how long before we have to double it again, quadrupling what we produce now.

[Flakmeister]

  Yes he was a smart motherfucker....just like some of us here.

Here is the USGS numbers which are used as a basis for most the numbers you hear:

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3049/

The PDF has the gory details

The summary

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has completed an assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources in all areas north of the Arctic Circle. Using a geology-based probabilistic methodology, the USGS estimated the occurrence of undiscovered oil and gas in 33 geologic provinces thought to be prospective for petroleum. The sum of the mean estimates for each province indicates that 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids may remain to be found in the Arctic, of which approximately 84 percent is expected to occur in offshore areas.

Now, I don't have the time to go into P95, P50, P5 estimates and how to interpret them. You have to do your own leg work on them.

Some perspective, 60 billion barrels would increase world liquid reserves by about 6%. Even if they are there, it ain't gonna flow any where for 15 years. By then, existing fields will have declined so it will not increase the current world production rate.

 And given the conditions in the Arctic and the depth of water, this oil is not going to be cheap...

[Seer]

Also, don't forget to add that the System wants growth, so not only do you need to be able to account for current demand, but also future demand growth!  And, this suposes that it's all "ours," that "we" get it, not the open markets.

NOTE: I'm sure that I'll get junked for proving factual/logical information just like you did.  The "Pray For More Oil/energy" folks are fighting pretty hard to deny reality...

[trav7777]

it is unavoidable...it is your dessstiny

[Yen Cross]

You're a lot of fun (trav7777) I like you!  I noticed your bullet holes are missing? The one in the middle should be RED with an idiot button on it. That way ignorant people can push your button and get some funny response. I'm working on something. It will be funny. Stay sharp. Good work!

[Gully Foyle]

trav7777

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7358389n

An agent with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms claims the agency has a policy that allows guns to get in the hands of the Mexican drug cartels.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntp4iv_s0dY

Investigation: US ATF Secretly Arming Mexican Drug Cartels (Mar 3, 2011 - CBS)

[trav7777]

yeah...um...wtf does this have to do with the oil production in Indonesia or the UK?

[Ayn Rand]

And we instruct our people to shoot beanbags.

[cossack55]

My guess is ramping up the fear factor in order for the repubs to get the pesky REAL ID passed and up and running (already passed, states don't wanna play).  Will need a REAL ID in order to drive, buy gas, board planes, etc,etc.  Fence, what freakin fence?

[DosZap]

Yes, and one of the weapons that they let get through was used to murder another agent(the Bean Bag one).

Fkrs are crooked as hell..........and no one say's WHOA MF, this ain't yo job.

Well tis going before Congress now, lets see if the little people demand a separation of this agency, way past due.

[tmosley]

You are exactly right.  Everyone knows its easy to drill for oil in the middle of a warzone in a corrupt state on the verge of disintegration.

Because if the oil stops for ANY reason, it's peak oil.  We're all gonna die next Thursday, so all politicians get a free pass because it wasn't their fault.

[Flakmeister]

 Care to respond to me over in the other thread? I have errands to run so my posting will be spotty, but I would relish the opputunity to continue

[trav7777]

you continue to demonstrate your stupidity...Mexico's production peaked in 2004, long before the "civil war" started.

And Cantarell is an OFFSHORE field...are the drug cartels mounting attacks on water rigs now?

Indonesia was a war zone in 2000?  They sat on a fat plateau for 8 years from 1991-1999, were they a fucking war zone?

How about the UK?  Was it liberal environut communist war zone cartels that caused their peak...from NORTH SEA fields?

You deniers are just freakin stoopid.  I could rattle off another dozen nations NOT in wars and with no drug cartels and certainly no liberal communist environuts that also peaked and are in production decline.  Go figure...it's as if the USA isn't the only nation in the world.

[CrashisOptimistic]

The deniers are who will kill Americans.  Crash programs to do . . . something . . . will never happen without more or less consensus acceptance of a crash program deserving emergency.

In other words, when they are ready to declare emergency, it will be too late.

It already is.  5 billion ppl are going to die.  The only thing that can provide America with a disproportionate chunk of the 1.8B surviving (say, we lose only 200 million of our 310 million), is use of nuclear weapons on China's east coast.

No choice.

[DiverCity]

From whence come your numerical estimates?  Not trying to be a smart ass, just want to know why you believe 5B will die -- nukes, starvation, conventional war, a combination of those?  Please give us your thesis.  I think hard times will come but your dystopian view seems over the top.  FWIW, properly understood (unlike the foolish notion by tmosley and others that it means oil "runs out"), I believe peak oil is fact so you don't need to try to convince me of that.  Thanks.

[Flakmeister]

It is based on the observed correlation between population growth and use of hydrocarbons.  The planet was stable at ~1-2 billion for many years till oil and then it shot up, oil and modern agriculture are tied at the hip...

Make what you will of it, I don't necessarily agree but it is possible.

[pvzh]

why you believe 5B will die

Pre-oil world supported approximately 1B (little/no fertilizers, tractors, planes, etc.). Let say our advancements in last 100 years and existing rotting infrastructure let us implement some necessary changes (more hydro and nuclear, some renewables). This might boost population cap to 2B. Result is obvious, 4-5B have to and will go one way or another.

[trav7777]

no; 7B are going to die because death is inevitable.  It is only a matter of when and how. 

As for the crash programs, only the smart bacteria recognize a problem with their growth compounding at 10 minutes to zero-hour, when the bottle is 1/1024 full.  The average bacteria see only empty space as far as the eye can see and they laugh.  And then the end comes very quickly as exponential curves are wont to cause.

Insofar as we eat oil now, there will be less eating if oil production declines.  Supposing the earth is a hot oily ball, perhaps we can make NOW not the peak, but if we do I have no confidence that anyone other than those here who understand peak and geometric compounding will join in a call for emergency measures.

To have booms like china throughout the world requires a doubling of production for them every 9 years...simply impossible.

[Seer]

A better example, because it doesn't involve, you know, "brown" people, is the North Sea oil fields.  One of the most recent big discoveries, and used the most current technology (they were able to be very efficient about draining it- see Jevons Paradox), and production dropped off a cliff!

I'd call all these deniers conspiracy theorists if not for the fact that I can be lumped under that category, conspiracy theorist, as well.  Any such attempts to peg all of this as some sort of conspiracy gets easily shot down when these folks end up having to admit that this is a finite planet (which revolves AROUND the sun, yeah, I know it's tough for some to get up to speed on facts and all).

[Flakmeister]

 The correlation between the following population groups is very high:

1) Peak Oil Denial

2) Creationists

3) Global Warming Denial

4) People with no post-secondary mathematics or science education

Principal Component Analysis is a very good tool....

[akak]

I tend to agree.  Strongly.

Show me a Bible-thumper, and I will show you a person as profoundly ignorant of even the most fundamental tenets of science and scientific thinking as the most isolated Bushmen of the Kalahari every time.

[That Peak Oil Guy]

Most peak oil theorists believe there is a very good chance that the politically destabilizing effects of reaching peak may cause peak production before peak resources is reached. 

This makes a lot of sense; to keep current flow rates going absolutely requires stability in the production and refining areas.  Without regional stability production could literally fall off a cliff, creating such an economic shock with the attendant demand destruction that infrastructure investment becomes much more difficult.  Given that investment is needed more than ever as we look for oil in hard to get places this would be yet another factor in declining production.

This may be a good thing.  If the current production collapses due to a feedback loop with economic collapse then there may be enough in the ground for us to use it in the future at much lower volumes in a less wasteful way for much longer, once we recover from the current crashing situation.

TPOG

[financeguru500]

You are correct. There may be 88million barrels of world oil production right now at peak, but with destabilization comes decrease in max production which also creates panic which causes extra buying by countries that want to guarantee their claim to oil

It is a very vicious cycle.

There is potential for world oil production to go down to 75million bpd rather quickly if unrest spreads to Saudi. I think when that happens, things are going to start getting interesting.

[Flakmeister]

  Just to clarify, oil is 72 mm bpd, the rest of the 85 mm bpd is "liquids" of much low energy density or EROEI.

[Seer]

You're kind of cutting off your own feet by classifying yourself as a "theorist."  That this is a finite planet is no Theory.  From that it follows that everything on this planet is limited (discounting incoming solar radiation and other inbound matter, but basically holds true for everything else).

"If the current production collapses due to a feedback loop with economic collapse then there may be enough in the ground for us to use it in the future at much lower volumes in a less wasteful way for much longer, once we recover from the current crashing situation."

Did statue carving pick back up on Easter Island?

[High Plains Drifter]

I want revolution. Does that make me a communist?

I want anarchy. Does that make me an anarchist? 

[cossack55]

No, just a realist.  I am actually getting quite impatient.  With all this can-kicking, I have had to change scopes to higher mag as eyes are getting older fast. Damn.

[Seer]

Oh, man!  Thanks for the great laugh!

[captain_menace]

You'll graduate to Jedi Anarchist when you create anarchy.

I want a BJ from Pam Anderson.  That doesn't make me Tommy Lee.

[Seer]

My life is anarchy.  Already there! :-)

[JW n FL]

by High Plains Drifter
on Sat, 03/05/2011 - 12:52
#1021996

I want revolution. Does that make me a communist?

I want anarchy. Does that make me an anarchist? 

***********************************************************************

No that makes you a man with morals and values.

Dont get me wrong I was happy as a child when I knew everything and nothing was wrong and unicorns ruled the world and the good guys always won.. now it is all politicians all the time and no good guys are left leading, any where in the world.

[Seer]

Sad that there are no "good guys" leading?  That's like being sorry that gays cannot serve in the military.  I think it should be positions left un-filled.  I need no one to "lead" me (religious types should understand that man/mortals shouldn't be rulers).

The problem is NOT that we have shit for leaders, rather it's because we've grown to believe more so that we HAVE to have leaders.

Google "we don't need them."  It's the FIRST hit, has been for many years now: contemplate That!

[JW n FL]

you nor i can sell the broader populace a world with out leaders, it is about what works verses what serves our tiny little egos in a chatroom.

[Concentrated po...]

Segestan, thank you for attempting to present a counterpoint.  I like reading zerohedge but sometimes this blog descends into a minority report of groupthink.  I agree with a lot of the arguements here like owning gold, silver and other real assets.  But not every descenting view is a troll. 

Technology has allowed both agriculture and the oil and gas industry to produce higher yields from both farms and oil fields.  Sometimes there is some middle ground between "we'll never run out of oil" and "we ran out last year".  The amount of oil in ANWR and the Bakken is a lot more than the 1% quoted in the above thread, and the amount of oil in the oil sands in canada is not running out like Mexico. 

My point is that the original post is framing a lot of the debate just as much as the guy who thinks oil is an infinite resource...

I'm sure I'll get flagged as junk along with you Segestan but thought I'd agree that fighting propaganda with more propaganda doesn't get us anywhere...

[Moe Howard]

Thanks for your balanced thoughts. As with most issues, the truth lies somewhere between the extremes.  

[CrashisOptimistic]

No.

It doesn't.  Mathematics is not democratically determined.  The guy's post is solid, and reasonable, and wrong.

A reasoned debate that 2+2 = 5 is not admirable.

Celebrating Canada, Bakken and anything else denies in irresponsible manner the US consumption of 14 mbpd (OF OIL, not ALL LIQUIDS 19 mbpd).

But even taking the bogus All Liquids number, Canada's 2-3 mbpd doesn't do it.  Bakken will likely never get over about 700K bpd regardless of what the lease holder PR pimps are screaming.  All the fresh water in Canada could not up oil sands output to 10 mbpd.  They'll never get higher than 4-5 mbpd.

All of which VERY CLEARLY does not add up to 19.  Subtract out Mexico's Canterell debacle and reality gets clear:

There Is No Answer And Billions Are Going To Die.

Soon.

[cossack55]

Fuck oil, you stumbled on the real problem.  I do not play the market, way to corrupt.  However, I have been toying with plunkin a few FRN's on some type of WATER play.  Much more research to do, but you know, you can't drink oil.

[impending doom]

"descenting view". Freudian slip?

[Flakmeister]

   To put the Bakken in perspective, look at figure 4

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7499

The Bakken is a wonderful field. It buys some time, nothing more nothing less.

[DosZap]

I understand TRAV's points,and agree.

My question if we are so close to being totally screwed, why does the governments of the world not institute MAX speed limits, and MIN fuel stds, and offer the option for Nat Gas powered vehicles NOW?,they have been in use since the 50's!!!.

The average fuel savings from 70mph to 55mph is 25%.

If we all used 25% less per day highway use, thats a wad of oil.

Freight, trains, instead of 5 million 18 wheelers.And the speed of those 18 wheelers 55 also.

Someone needs to start making CALLS, and making them IMPERATIVE.

Anything America wants to do, it can do.Been there done that, seen that.

A swift kick in the ass is needed, and the entire truth needs to me made known to ALL Americans, ASAP.

Small changes can reap huge dividends if we START.

[WakeUpPeeeeeople]

The 55mph trick was tried in the '70s and all it did was get Jimmy Carter's dumbass kicked out of office. Once he was gone, the speed limit was quickly raised. How about raising the price of fuel to the point where the smart people slow down and the speeders get hungry not to mention raising the price enough to get the fucking joy riders off the road.

The wake-up call was back in the mid '70s and look at what we have today. Don't waste your time calling and writing. We are fucked. Instead, lock and load, and shoot and scoot.    

[nmewn]

Concentrated,

"I like reading zerohedge but sometimes this blog descends into a minority report of groupthink."

Agree...something for everyone to guard against.

Often one needs to take the other side just to beat it back and suffer the slings and arrows with a smile.

Not being an expert on "peak oil", I think conceptually it's probably real. The issue is the timing of the effect, if any. 

We could use oil wiser and something will have to be found to replace the products derived from it, plastic for instance.

We have coal and this little thing called splitting the atom (the French don't have a problem with nuke plants, why should we?) that works pretty well for non-portable power so I don't see any reason for power plants to use anything else to produce electricity, outside of nat gas...which we have in abundance.

Then there's hydro where geography makes it viable.

So in the end we're talking about sources of energy for personal vehicles I suppose. Natural gas can do this as well...and it's everywhere in our carbon based world...not long ago "some people" were talking about hooking up suction cup diapers on cows to save the planet or some damn thing...LOL.

So in my view Quinn's hyperventilating a little bit here, we're not going to run out of portable energy sources anytime soon and when and if it happens it will be meaningless as our kids will have switched to something else because of price...but maybe I'm just being an antagonist to groupthink ;-)

[DavidPierre]

"...use oil wiser..." "

...energy for personal vehicles..."

Four cylinder, 100 HP max.

Less fuel out of the tank.

More gears in the transmission.

A simple answer!

A high hurdle.

[nmewn]

No problem at all with using it wiser...that would be a fiscal conservative position...LOL.

And it doesn't have to be centrally planned, taxpayer subsidized, high speed rail to nowhere when you get off the train you have to rent a car to get to where you're actually trying to go or battery packs who's life span is about the same as a set of brake pads or displacing corn in the human/animal food chain for ethanol.

So...we on speaking terms again? ;-)

[DavidPierre]

Sure!

I like most of your posts...

Except when you pretend ignorance of the science about 9/11Truth...

Then I shout!

[nmewn]

So I'll take the rest as victories rightfully won and respect Hudna with you as well...LOL.

Take care ;-)

[Flakmeister]

Coal... the great leap backwards.

If I told you that we could power the world on wood, you would call me a loon.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density

What we are now burning is for all intents and purposes, wood.

Anthracite, the old time good stuff that powered the Industrial Revolution, is too valuable to burn on a mass scale, it is used to make steel.

[Bad Asset]

can anyone comment on the difference of return on energy from tar sands/shale/fracking to conventionally drilled oil?

[Flakmeister]

Go to oil drum and search, its easy. IIRC, conventional vertical wells were ~20-25, tar sands is about 3-5. The calculations are not simple.

[Seer]

"Technology has allowed both agriculture and the oil and gas industry to produce higher yields from both farms and oil fields. "

The Green Revolution has fucked most of the planet.

Technology has allowed Jevons Paradox to resemble Pandora's Box: I mean, shit, now people are clamouring to dig up everything in order to get RARE earth metals for their fucking iPods!  MORE YIELDS ALSO MEANS, IN MOST CASES, FASTER EXTRACTION, FASTER D-E-P-L-E-T-I-O-N.  Viewing this as being "good" make ZERO sense.

No, the correct position is to realize that this is a finite planet and that it is a certainty that the paradigm of grow-or-die will eventually lead to the "die" part.  Because people spook over "die" or "death" (that's primarily a human perspective) they associate anything with it as being negative.  No, it's natural, it's the balance of nature (the universe/whatever).

Attempting to mediate doesn't make peak energy go away.  NOTE: water is even more critical than energy, but water is something that people don't want to talk about because it's too obvious how water works, it's hard to create some obscure story about abiotic water.

The only growth that we need from this point on is for people to grow up (not necessarily directed to you).

[grunk]

Imagine if you had 1.5 billion mouths to feed.

When you write, "There are no good outcomes, only bad, really bad, and catastrophic," aren't you measuring it relative to the staus quo? The status quo has been fucking over everyone forever. Maybe it was unsustainable and now it's "come to Jesus" time.

[VyseLegendaire]

An apt description, I like it!

[Seer]

Sadly, I think it holds all the way round.  My wife is from the Philippines, and I can see how much they rely on remittances there (about 10% GDP).  As a US citizen I see US standards of living plummeting, and with this I also see less money going to places like the Philippines.  It's actually hard for me to think about this, about the impact back there: many are already on the edge, take away a little and it equates to a LOT.  So... anyone who accuses me of advocating doom can just fuck off!  I'm just being a realist, something that shouldn't be undertaken by the faint of heart...

But, being that I'm not about viewing things from only one angle, I do believe that it'll remove shackles from many throughout the world: many can return to growing their own sustainable crops rather than growing for export to wealthier white nations.

[Motorhead]

Peak oil, bitchez!

[Trimmed Hedge]

A few years back, oil was at $140.

Today, oil is at $100 or so.

And yet, gasoline is now the same price as it was back then (at least in my neck of the woods).

Please explain. Thanks.  : (

[Oh regional Indian]

TH, it's the difference between price discovery and price fixing.

Inother words, it's a cartel that fixes the prices. Barely any correlation to reality.

If you ask an oil guy, they might give you some long winded explanation about extraction costs and refining costs and distribution costs and on and on, anon.

But cartel price fixing is the truth.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/03/05/driving-india-crazy/

[Seer]

"Cartel" price fixing?

History is interesting.  People should read about the Texas Railroad Commission, as it's the premise for what you're probably referring to as the "cartel" (which I'm guessing is OPEC).  TPTB actually like price fixing, as it provides stability, control: and frankly, I think that most people can appreciate price stability, even if something is high- makes budgeting easier to manage.

I think that it was a ZH poster who the other day wrote a great post about how it's all quite predictable, that speculation in oil should happen like this.  To me it's all a sign of the System collapsing, big buckets being sloshed back and forth, with such momentum being gained that control is slowly being lost, until...

[Jim Quinn]

Brent crude is $116 a barrel. The average price is still 50 cents lower than the peak in 2008.

[financeguru500]

Yeah, wasn't it around $4.00 a gallon for 87 unleaded back when the oil spike happened.

Also you have to take into account increased taxes on fuel consumption which are an invisible inflation because most people don't even realize it. Like cig's, the price is up because taxes are higher now than they were in 2008.

[falak pema]

Oligopolistic markets : What goes up first time comes down less, what goes up again does the same. Net effect : inflation for consumer, profits for oligarchs, until the ponzi caves in and it's time to invent a new ponzi by those who've survived the crash, usual suspects! Don't get caught as the hindmost in this musical chairs game as he belongs to the devil, is the only rule. By definition the plebes are suckers forever, until they break the system or someone does it for them by regime/empire change. Every new empire has a "benevolent period" where a middle class is created and the wealth distributed for the oligarchy to get well entrenched at top of system...then...absolute power and habit....n down we go the roller coaster!

[financeguru500]

You know what I find interesting. In all the cases of uprisings where the governments are overthrown, the populace still finds themselves indebted to the banks. The blame gets placed on the government but the banks still keep their money.

I'm curious to see what the transition will be like when the dollar does finally collapse. If I were a betting man I'd say the transition will include the U.S. population staying indebted to banks while a new currency is formed.

[Calmyourself]

No, the banks do not stay on top this time. 

[Bob]

Hear, hear!  That's the bottom line.

[Seer]

You're right in the "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" observation.  But... this time it WILL be different.  Different in this case is due to the loss of sufficient resources to leverage up again.  Up until now it's all been about conquering others in order to garner more resources.  There's never been a global economy before, and there's never been this many people dependent upon one resource (oil).

A new currency is meaningless, as the old one will have died because it wasn't honored by our trading partners (ones with that precious resource- oil).  Why would they accept something else?

No, the Change has to be a HUGE one, and I'm betting it'll have to be so big that it will, in essence, eliminate the existing structure entirely, and that it won't be controllable.  Look around to see how divided folks are in the US and ask yourself whether there's ANY possibility that they'd accept some new currency (if there's a run at it I'm sure that it will first materialize as demonization of gold-holders).

The bankers and their "dream" pushing are coming to a close.

[Cathartes Aura]

do you not think that they will simply move to the next host, such as what is currently happening in China and India, for example?  where they colonise the mindset with consumer-isms, employ them (relatively cheaply compared to European wage standards) then tax & sell them all the accoutrements necessary to be "seen" as "monied"?

while amrka may be history economically, fattened & sheared, ready for the abbatoir, I think there are other nationstates being groomed even as we lament.

[defender]

It is a little different than ORI says, but what he is talking about is mostly true for price per barrel (think OPEC production targets).  Gas price is determined by demand of the most expensive oil products.  After the demand is met for all of the expensive products, then the leftover supply is used to make gas. 

Basically, when oil started getting expensive, industry started switching from heating oil (expensive) to natural gas (not oil) for their heating needs, and made more oil available for gas.  This glut of left over oil supply suppressed the price of gas. 

This year, the higher BTU density of heating oil still makes oil more economical than natural gas.  Since industry is using the oil for heating, there isn't as much left over for gasoline production.  The painful result of all of this is higher gas prices.

[AnAnonymous]

Please explain. Thanks.  : (

Maybe "once bitten, twice shy"? Or something like that.

In 2008, the future was rosy. Trade volumes, activity were expected to go up and up. 

Three years later, 2011, a different story...

[DRT RD]

Two different commodities, yes they trade in tandem, but different demand for each product.

[ThirdCoastSurfer]

US refineries were at 90% operating efficiency back then. Today, last I heard, it was 82%. Light sweet crude is easier/cheaper to refine so even though we only import a small amount percentage wise of our overall total, almost all of it goes to gasoline so when you take just a little offline it has a big effect on the cost. 

[Flakmeister]

   I suggest you google "Refining Assays" as a function of API and Sulfur content...

[Flakmeister]

 This is quite possibly the most rational article ever contributed on the topic of oil on Zerohedge...

[cossack55]

"rubber band powered cars". Hey, Fm, know a good ETF for rubber?  What the hell ever happened to flubber? Hot in the 60s.

[defender]

I saw a documentary that said that it was to expensive to manufacture, so they stopped production.  The patent should be up by now, so if you really wanted to you could start your own manufacturing line. :)

[yipcarl]

I doubt that.  lol.  No chance of oil going to 15 a barrel?  There isn't enough Bernanke's to support 5 or 10 buck oil once the shit hits the fan. 

[serotonindumptruck]

I'm not positive, but I think the price of crude must remain above $70 in order to achieve EROEI. At current inflationary rates, anyway.

[Loose_Cannon]

EROEI is not a function of price, it is the other way around.

[serotonindumptruck]

I appreciate the correction. EROEI does not apply to economics. The math is probably over my head anyway. I only meant to emphasize that at some point, it is no longer cost-effective to continue extraction if the price of oil falls below a certain monetary threshold.

[Flakmeister]

 EROEI also means that if that as it approaches 1, you enter death spiral, regardless of the price...and the price connection is something alien to people. Price is economics, net energy is thermodynamics. Economics is ultimately the slave to thermodynamics.

[Seer]

Actually, there's nothing wrong with your thinking at all!  Money = promise to do work.  EROEI has to do with energy, WORK, required to return energy, WORK.  Yeah, it's stretching it a bit, in that money is so highly decoupled from reality, but based on classic/theoretical terms you've got a case.

[falak pema]

Second that to my mind its an excellent article. But it's been in the cards since ...1979, frankly. Lol!

[CrashisOptimistic]

Yeah, it is.  I took issue only with his extrapolation of "programs" taking place within a destroyed society.

Destroyed societies fund no programs.

[SparkyvonBellagio]

The FED and this Old Crones wouldn't exist in a 'Logans Run' style world.

You wouldn't grow old enough to establish or care about ruining everyones lives and stealing for the future. You'd be extinguished at 30. In the prime of your life. You wouldn't grow old and you wouldn't have to endure B.S. policies of the old, senile, and ridiculous.

It's all about OLD PEOPLE phucking over the Youth at this point.

Jam it home to the senile people running this Govt and Big Business.

The only refreshing aspect of Wall Street at this point is that a few youths are getting rich. Lets see if they end up better or worse as the Old Crones in the Govt.

I suggest youthful firing brainstems for the future.  

I'm extremely tired of the Old Guard running this country and the world.

Time for a change!

[dick cheneys ghost]

How the rich soaked the rest of us............

http://nakedempire.wordpress.com/

[ElvisDog]

Yeah, except the youth of Wisconsin are protesting so that they can pay the inflated retirement and health care costs of their older public employess. The point being, it doesn't give me much confidence in the "youth" being able to set things right.

[Seer]

Being neutral on everything except reality, I pointed out to some current supporters* what the UAW did several years back- voted for lower salaries for starting members in order to preserve their current pensions and health care.  Yup, the older folks fucking over the younger ones.  When this vote went down I thought to myself: "who do these folks think that they are going to sell their homes to [for their retirement]?"

* I was accused of not supporting unions.  I turned this around to ask them whether they supported the UAW's position back then.  Stupid is stupid, doesn't matter whether it's public, private, union or non-union.

It's more pevasive than just "youth" :-(

Way too many pawns!  We have created a civilization of followers, people that are programmed to be led.  As long as people continue to vote they will be continue to be shackled.

[OldTrooper]

So do something, Sparky.

Good luck!

[blunderdog]

Motorcycles are cool.  Not only are they more efficient, but they're really dangerous and will kill a lot more drivers, thus saving on health care.

[Long-John-Silver]

I can't wait till bicycles and motorcycles outnumber cars a 1,000 to 1.

[velobabe]

yeah, me too† i think this pedal revolution will be the best damn thing to happen for the earth. i hope gas in america goes so H I G H, and the stations only take cash. i think that will be the biggest celebration. if all the gas pumps around the country stop taking credit cards. the bike stores can take credit cards. it would be like, buying a car from a dealer and getting a loan. loans for bicycles. but lycra, is illegal for fat riding people on bikes, to wear. primary color lycra is illegal on earth, bitchez†

V E L O heaven. and walking shoes, good walking shoes for no snow days, and cross country skis for snow days.

i love snow days!

[Rainman]

Little old ladies ride around on putt-putt scooters in cities like Barcelona and Rome all day long. Two-wheel rides are everywhere...with or without motors. USA scooters will require XXX- wide seats, but it is doable.

[DeltaDawn]

That is why we have "The Scooter Store" my friend! Fat-ass friendly and free if disabled by obesity.

[Yen Cross]

Do you have any technical underpinnings? Do you understand m-flows? F/X and floating currencies? Do you understand the dynamics of the bond markets, and who the players are. Do you understand central banks and exchange policies? What is re-patriation? What is Chinas USD T portfolio. How was the disparity of those holdings recently disclosed? Stay under the porch. ROOKIE!

[akak]

Do you know the definition of "non sequitur"?

[Seer]

LOL!  Yeah, I thought "WTF?"

[Calmyourself]

I can't wait to run you over as the only way your little dream comes true is millions dead, tool..

[Yen Cross]

When  I wakeup in the morning, I thank God for life,family,health,friends,and procede to take a run on the beach. I suggest you focus on how valuable life is, and the good things about life. Life is what YOU aspire to make of it!

[Calmyourself]

Thanks for the advice, I have beautiful accomplished children, a stunning wife, some resources and a clear and discerning mind. I have been blessed.  But, perhaps you are right, I should thank God more often for what I have, all in all good advice.

[Yen Cross]

It isn't a religious issue (calm yourself) It's about self respect! It's about conscience, and decent human nature. I like religion. I really like my fellow Man/Woman. It's about self respect, and dignity! Gods don't control Man! Man controls Man. Who is the right man? Let's discuss that. Heaven and hell can wait. I'm alive and HAPPY. I want to help others.

[Seer]

Thank you for the warm thoughts.

[Seer]

Being somewhat associated with the bicycling community, I'd advocated against bicycle paths.  My reasoning was that at some point the roads would belong to more bicycles than cars.

Anyone thinking that this is a stretch doesn't have a clue about what the rest of the world looks like (2/3 of which lives on $3/day or less, and is primarily in the pedal power category).

[Oh regional Indian]

The end of the age of OIL. Thanks goodness. It's a drug that will absolutely kill the junkie, because it spawned a false, limitless growth world that was unsustainable. 

And America, like living in free-energy land for all practical purposes for well-nigh 100 years, give or take. Look where it got the people and the country. At war with the world and at war with itself.

I suggest pulling the needle yourself or having it yanked, painfully. Quinn is right, this dog will bite.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/03/05/driving-india-crazy/

[cossack55]

On top of it  again, ORI. A question that has been floating around in my empty crainal cage....can you name anything, anything, in nature that grows continously.  I've not come up with anything yet.  They even shot down the universe concept that tho expanding will contract sometime.  I'm stumped.

[Gully Foyle]

cossack55

"can you name anything, anything, in nature that grows continously."

Ignorance

[serotonindumptruck]

Or cognitive dissonance.

[akak]

Oprah Winfrey, Kirstie Alley and Sally Struthers

There, I gave you three.

[Calmyourself]

Streisand, her ass and nose at least..

[Yen Cross]

Uh ohh! You can spell Streisand. I before E, except after C. Calm yourself. Take some spaghetti-o's to your soon to be fired/incarcerated friends from Wisconsin.

[Calmyourself]

Check: I can spell

Incarcerated friends hmm, I have some for you to meet.

Spaghetti-o's; I assume that is supposed to be some sort of insult but too esoteric: fail, try again..

Off to a party, type more at your ridiculousness tomorrow maybe..

[Yen Cross]

POST Facto: Calm Your self. ( Please direct your remarks to earlier conversations) On a more tangible note. Are you long USD?

[Fearless Rick]

All perennial plants, while they do not grow continuously, do not need to be replanted every year.

Some of the edible ones are asparagus, rhubarb, garlic, certain varieties of onions, horseradish, kale and collard greens. Then you have fruit bearing trees: apple, oranges, plums, peaches, pears, etc.

Other vegetables produce their own seeds, so with a little effort, you need to grow once and then plant every year.

Water continuously gets recycled through evaporation and condensation.

Nature has provided everything needed for sustenance. You only need to come out of denial and embrace it.

[velobabe]

I  L O V E  fruit bearing trees: apple, oranges, plums, peaches, pears, etc.

[Kayman]

Let's not overlook the largest carbon sink of all- FORESTS.

[Calmyourself]

No, that would be the ocean algae..

[Yen Cross]

Calm Yourself. Take a deep breath. Algae has been around for 10 years, junior chartster.I own some sideways shares in the project. Us repubs. are on the curve.

[snowball777]

No, algae has been around for more than a billion years; the only curve you're "on" is bathtub-shaped.

http://bit.ly/ijYQcs

[Yen Cross]

Huh? As you reel back on your heels! Do you live in a swamp?

[John_Coltrane]

Almost correct.  Its the water itself.  All gasses are soluble in water and their solubility depends on the temperature, T.  The oceans are the great storage sink for carbon dioxide, CO2.   An interesting ramification is that increasing the global T through greater solar irradiance, say, increases the free CO2.  And this is what the ice core records show, increasing CO2 always follows increasing T.   Free CO2 is an effect not a cause of global warming.  So simple, you'd think anyone who ever boiled water and noticed all the gas bubbles coming out would figured this out.

[Calmyourself]

Right, but the original thought concerned living matter.. So, yes technically your correct..

[Yen Cross]

I appreciate your compassion. Did you work the thread (revisions)?

[Yen Cross]

I appreciate your compassion. Did you work the thread (revisions)?

[Yen Cross]

I respect you. End of story. Well, educated and spoken you are. Be Well! We will debate though. Smiles of vigor!