Guest Post: There Are No Good Outcomes

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform

There Are No Good Outcomes

The political class and their mouthpieces in the corporate controlled
mainstream media are desperately trying to spin the oil price surge as a
temporary inconvenience that will not derail their phony recovery
story. Brent crude closed at $116 per barrel yesterday. West Texas crude
closed at $104 per barrel. Unleaded gas has risen by 22% in the last
month and 60% since September 1, 2010. I’m sure this slight increase
hasn’t impacted Ben Bernanke or Lloyd Blankfein. Their limo drivers just
charge it to their unlimited expense accounts. Joe Sixpack, driving his
15 mpg Dodge RAM pickup, is now forking over an extra $1,200 per year
in gas expenditures, not to mention more for everything impacted by oil
such as food, utilities, and anything transported to their local
Wal-Mart by truck (everything). Luckily, the Federal Reserve and crooked
politicians only care about their comrades in the top 1% elitist
society, for whom oil is an investment, not an expense.  

               UNLEADED GAS 

The “experts” speak as if they know what will happen, even
though they never saw the rebellions coming in Tunisia, Egypt or Libya.
They assure the masses that Libya doesn’t really have an impact on U.S.
oil supply. It’s as if these shills never took Econ 101 in college.
World oil demand is 88 million barrels per day. Oil supply is 88 million
barrels per day. If 1 million barrels of oil supply are taken off-line,
it doesn’t matter that the U.S. doesn’t get their oil from Libya. The
Italians need their oil. Do the talking heads understand that oil is
fungible? The supplier will ship the oil to the highest bidder.
Presto!!! – $116 a barrel oil.

With Friends Like This, Who Needs Enemies

Let’s assess the probability of things getting better in the near,
medium, long term or ever term. Take a gander at the chart below. These
countries account for 29% of the daily world oil supply. Does it strike
you as a list of stable countries with happy populations of employed
young men?  Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iran have already experienced
revolution or are on the verge of revolution. Algeria is dead man
walking. The Saudi royal family is trying to buy off the masses to stay
in power. The revolution genie is out of the bottle. It can’t be put
back. Mix 40% unemployment, with millions of young men, no hope, and
some Muslim fundamentalism and you’ve got yourself an out of control
situation. No amount of public relations spin will create a positive
outcome for the United States. The existing world order of despots,
kings, and military juntas was just fine for Washington DC. They poured
hundreds of billions of “aid”, tanks, helicopters and missiles to these
“freedom fighter” despots who diverted the billions to their Swiss bank
accounts and fell into line with U.S. policy. No matter who takes power
when these revolutions succeed in toppling our puppets, the new regimes
will not be friendlier toward America. And they still have the oil. 

	Proven Oil	Oil
Country	Reserves (bil barrels)	Production Per Day
Saudi Arabia	265	8,400,000
Iran	137	3,700,000
Iraq	115	2,700,000
UAE	98	2,300,000
Kuwait	102	2,300,000
Libya	46	1,600,000
Algeria	12	1,300,000
Qatar	25	820,000
Oman	6	810,000
Egypt	4	742,000
Syria	3	376,000
Yemen	3	298,000

One look at the chart of self reported world oil reserves paints a
picture of woe for the United States. Countries in the tinderbox of the
Middle East and Africa control 65% of the world’s oil reserves. Saudi
Arabia controls 20%, Iran and Iraq control 11% each, Venezuela controls
7%, Russia 5%, and Libya 3%. So, countries that can barely stomach our
existence, hate us, or just despise us, control 57% of the world’s
remaining oil. Sounds like a recipe for lower oil prices in the future.
The two countries on our border are the only dependable suppliers for
the U.S. Canada controls 13% of the world oil reserves, mostly in its
tar sands. Mexico controls just over 1% of the world’s oil reserves, but
supplies 13% of the U.S. daily oil supply.

Drill, Baby, Drill

Now for a reality check on the “Drill Baby Drill” propagandists like
Larry Kudlow and the other dishonest Republican shills. The United
States controls a full 1.58% of the remaining oil reserves in the world.
We have 21.3 billion barrels of reserves versus 264 billion barrels in
Saudi Arabia. We are currently producing 9 million barrels per day. At
that production rate, the U.S. will deplete its proven reserves in the
next 6 to 10 years. New discoveries will not be able to keep up with
depletion of existing wells. The good news just keeps coming. Mexico’s
oil production has been dependent upon one giant oil field since 1976.
The Cantarell oil field produced 2.1 million barrels per day in 2003 at
its peak. It is currently producing 464,000 barrels per day. Peak oil
has arrived in Mexico. By 2015, the country that currently supplies 13%
of our daily oil supply will become a net importer of oil. Drill Baby
Drill. 

Based upon the monthly import data below from the IEA, it would
appear that, to paraphrase Chief Brody in Jaws, we’re going to need more
corn. As the Obama administration operates in denial of these simple
facts, they will continue to push ethanol and Chevy Volts to save us
from dirty oil. We are already diverting 40% of our corn crop to the
ethanol boondoggle. I’m sure that has nothing to do with the 98%
increase in corn prices in the last year. Maybe tax credits for solar
panels on SUVs and rubber band propeller cars will save the day.

We know for a fact that Mexico’s 1.2 million barrels per day will
evaporate in the next few years. But, at least we have that solid
dependable 2.7 million barrels per day (30% of our daily imports) from
those stable bastions of democracy Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, Angola, and
Algeria. Makes you want to go out and buy a Hummer. The storyline being
sold to the American people is that there is no need to worry. Saudi
Arabia will step to the plate and make up for any shortfalls throughout
the world. Just one problem. Saudi Arabia is lying about their reserves
and their ability to increase production. They’d fit in very well in
Congress and on Wall Street.

Crude Oil Imports (Top 15 Countries) (Thousand Barrels per Day)
Country	Dec-10	Nov-10	YTD 2010	Dec-09	YTD 2009
CANADA	2,064	1,975	1,972	2,104	1,943
MEXICO	1,223	1,229	1,140	1,063	1,092
SAUDI ARABIA	1,076	1,119	1,080	870	980
NIGERIA	1,024	806	986	1,020	776
VENEZUELA	825	884	912	772	951
IRAQ	336	340	414	325	449
ANGOLA	307	263	380	266	448
BRAZIL	271	188	254	181	295
ALGERIA	262	379	325	336	281
COLOMBIA	220	489	338	179	251
ECUADOR	192	188	195	86	181
RUSSIA	158	85	252	168	230
KUWAIT	125	170	195	160	180
UNITED KINGDOM	124	80	120	67	103
ARGENTINA	85	35	29	33	53

Lies, Obfuscation, Misinformation & Denial

The late Matt Simmons made the strong case In his book Twilight in the Desert that
Saudi Arabia has been lying about their reserves for years. Documents
released by Wikileaks give support to this contention. Cables from the
U.S. Embassy in Riyadh , released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take
seriously a warning from senior Saudi government oil executive Sadad
al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil
monopoly Aramco, that the kingdom’s crude oil reserves may have been
overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.
The UK Guardian reported:

According to the cables, which date
between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m
barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 –
global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch
point is known as “peak oil”.

Husseini said that at that point Aramco
would not be able to stop the rise of global oil prices because the
Saudi energy industry had overstated its recoverable reserves to spur
foreign investment. He argued that Aramco had badly underestimated the
time needed to bring new oil on tap.

One cable said: “According to
al-Husseini, the crux of the issue is twofold. First, it is possible
that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described, and the
timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramco and energy
optimists would like to portray.”

The US consul then told Washington:
“While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he
is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand
that his predictions be thoughtfully considered.”

A fourth cable, in October 2009,
claimed that escalating electricity demand by Saudi Arabia may further
constrain Saudi oil exports. “Demand [for electricity] is expected to
grow 10% a year over the next decade as a result of population and
economic growth. As a result it will need to double its generation
capacity to 68,000MW in 2018,” it said.

It also reported major project delays
and accidents as “evidence that the Saudi Aramco is having to run harder
to stay in place – to replace the decline in existing production.”
While fears of premature “peak oil” and Saudi production problems had
been expressed before, no US official has come close to saying this in
public.

The overstatement of reserves by Saudi
Arabia and most of the OPEC countries should be abundantly clear to
anyone with a smattering of critical thinking skills. This eliminates
just about everyone on CNBC or Fox News. Essentially, the self reported,
unaudited declared oil reserves from OPEC members are a fraud.
Production quotas for each member of OPEC are dependent upon their oil
reserve amount. When this was instituted in the early 1980s, shockingly
OPEC countries miraculously added nearly 300 billion barrels to proven
reserves in a six year period with NO NEW DISCOVERIES of oil. The chart
below shows the unexplained jumps in reserves in red. Do you honestly
believe any self reported number from Iran or Venezuela? Dr. Ali Samsam
Bakhtiari, a former senior expert of the National Iranian Oil Company,
has estimated that Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates have overstated reserves by a combined 320–390 billion barrels
and has said, “As for Iran, the usually accepted official 132 billion
barrels is almost one hundred billion over any realistic estimate.”

Using some common sense, someone might ask,
“How could Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves remain above 260 million for the
last 22 years despite pumping over 60 billion barrels during this time
frame, and not making any major new discoveries?” Maybe their
statisticians did their training at Goldman Sachs or the Federal
Reserve. The monster Saudi oil fields are over 40 years old. They will
deplete. Oil is finite. They will not refill abiotically like some
crackpots contend. Saudi Arabia’s production peaked in 2005 and it has
been unable to reach that level since. The spin sheiks in Riyadh and
spin doctors in Washington DC cannot spin oil out of sand. Peak oil is
about to choke the American way of life.    

Declared reserves of major Opec Producers (billion of barrels)
BP Statistical Review – June 2009
Year	Iran	Iraq	Kuwait	Saudi Arabia	UAE	Venezuela	Libya	Nigeria
1980	58.3	30.0	67.9	168.0	30.4	19.5	20.3	16.7
1981	57.0	32.0	67.7	167.9	32.2	19.9	22.6	16.5
1982	56.1	59.0	67.2	165.5	32.4	24.9	22.2	16.8
1983	55.3	65.0	67.0	168.8	32.3	25.9	21.8	16.6
1984	58.9	65.0	92.7	171.7	32.5	28.0	21.4	16.7
1985	59.0	65.0	92.5	171.5	33.0	54.5	21.3	16.6
1986	92.9	72.0	94.5	169.7	97.2	55.5	22.8	16.1
1987	92.9	100.0	94.5	169.6	98.1	58.1	22.8	16.0
1988	92.9	100.0	94.5	255.0	98.1	58.5	22.8	16.0
1989	92.9	100.0	97.1	260.1	98.1	59.0	22.8	16.0
1990	92.9	100.0	97.0	260.3	98.1	60.1	22.8	17.1
1991	92.9	100.0	96.5	260.9	98.1	62.6	22.8	20.0
1992	92.9	100.0	96.5	261.2	98.1	63.3	22.8	21.0
1993	92.9	100.0	96.5	261.4	98.1	64.4	22.8	21.0
1994	94.3	100.0	96.5	261.4	98.1	64.9	22.8	21.0
1995	93.7	100.0	96.5	261.5	98.1	66.3	29.5	20.8
1996	92.6	112.0	96.5	261.4	97.8	72.7	29.5	20.8
1997	92.6	112.5	96.5	261.5	97.8	74.9	29.5	20.8
1998	93.7	112.5	96.5	261.5	97.8	76.1	29.5	22.5
1999	93.1	112.5	96.5	262.8	97.8	76.8	29.5	29.0
2000	99.5	112.5	96.5	262.8	97.8	76.8	36.0	29.0
2001	99.1	115.0	96.5	262.7	97.8	77.7	36.0	31.5
2002	130.7	115.0	96.5	262.8	97.8	77.3	36.0	34.3
2003	133.3	115.0	99.0	262.7	97.8	77.2	39.1	35.3
2004	132.7	115.0	101.5	264.3	97.8	79.7	39.1	35.9
2005	137.5	115.0	101.5	264.2	97.8	80.0	41.5	36.2
2006	138.4	115.0	101.5	264.3	97.8	87.3	41.5	36.2
2007	138.2	115.0	101.5	264.2	97.8	99.4	43.7	36.2
2008	137.6	115.0	101.5	264.1	97.8	99.4	43.7	36.2

The denial, accusations and misinformation have already begun.
Congressional hearings will be called to blame Big Oil and the dreaded
speculators. Americans always need a bogeyman to blame for their
mindless decisions and willingness to be led to slaughter by corrupt
politicians. Big oil companies do benefit from higher oil prices. Big
oil companies spend millions buying off Congressmen. Big oil
companies cut corners, ignore safety procedures, and seek profits by any
means possible. But, they do not control the oil. Nations control the
oil. Many of these nations are led by lying, corrupt, evil despots. That
is a fact. Blustering moronic Congressmen going after oil executives
and phantom speculators is just a sideshow. It will divert the
non-thinking masses from the truth that our leaders haven’t allowed a
refinery or nuclear power plant to be built since 1977. These leaders
have promoted and subsidized corn based ethanol that requires more
energy to produce than it creates and has driven the cost of our food
sky high. We are more dependent on foreign oil than any time in our
history.

The real speculators are the Americans who clog our highways every
morning driving monster SUVs, turbocharged sports cars, gas guzzling
minivans, and pickup trucks that make them feel like salt of the earth
tough guys despite living in their 6,000 square foot energy sucking
McMansions in suburban tracts 30 miles from their jobs, if they have
one. The ignorance of the average American car buyer knows no bounds.
The recent bounce back in auto sales was led by SUVs and pickups. The
green clean cars are nothing but hype and bullshit. GM expects to sell
about 10,000 Volts this year, and Nissan expects to sell about 25,000
Leafs in the United States, a piss in the ocean compared with the
millions of sport wagons and SUVs purchased by Americans annually.
Americans have the attention span of a gnat and are already dazed and
confused by the surge in gas prices to $3.50 per gallon.

When oil prices spiked to $147 barrel in 2008, Americans were
spending $467 billion per year for fuel. By early 2009, the collapse in
energy prices due to the worldwide recession reduced the annual
expenditure to $265 billion, freeing up over $200 billion for consumers
to spend on other items, pay down debt, or save. Expenditures for fuel
had already surged back to $400 billion before the recent spike in oil
prices. Next stop $500 billion. That should do wonders for the faux
economic recovery that has been touted by Obama and the MSM for the last
year. The years of denial, lies, indecision, bad decisions, and inertia
have left the country vulnerable and at the mercy of countries in far
off lands that despise our way of life.

There are no good outcomes, only bad, really bad, and catastrophic.
Take your pick. Could gas prices drop below $3.00 per gallon if the
world sinks back into recession? Yes. But it would only be momentary.
The easy to access supply is dwindling. The medium and long term
direction of gas at the pump is up. There is nothing that can be done in
the next five years to prevent significantly higher oil prices. A full
court press of realistic ideas like converting our truck fleets to
natural gas, a major effort to build nuclear power plants, more
drilling, greater use of wind, geothermal, and solar would take at least
a decade to have an impact. There is no consensus or resolve to
undertake such an effort. Therefore, Americans will suffer the
consequences. Be a good American and take advantage of GM’s no interest
for 7 years deal on their biggest baddest SUVs and buy two. What could
go wrong?

Comments

[snowball777]

And chickens don't lay eggs...because anyone can see that they are clearly hatched from them.

Please return immediately to your first year logic course for remedial study.

[bob_dabolina]

The real unemployment rate.

[Meme Iamfurst]

yes, and a population explosion that is out of control...again.

People do not get that the consumption of resources as the population grows, is geometric NOT mathmatical.  Think of it as the power of 2 to the Nth, cubed, not multiplied and you begin to see where we are really headed.

[Flakmeister]

Quibble: the term is arithmetic growth not mathematical, otherwise your understanding is spot on.

[Oh regional Indian]

Cossack, I'll defer to the geniuses above. Funny stuff indeed. :-)

And no, infinity and growth don't mix.

ORI

[duncecap rack]

Human Knowledge. Not that we use it. Hummers for everyone!!

[snowball777]

A decent form of shelter, I guess.

Oh, you meant to drive...well, that won't be an option for long.

[Seer]

Yeah, how stupid are these things?  I mean, in the future you can at least plant in the back of a pickup truck!  My only thought is that they could function as solar dehydrators...

The irony of it all, though, the great symbol of the American Dream, the Hummer, built by Goverment Motors and stopped after not even China (with all its excess USD) was stupid enough to buy out the line!  Ah, patriotism in all its fine glory!

[snowball777]

I make a point of pointing and laughing loudly whenever I see one idling at a stoplight (or any other Stupid Useless Vehicle for that matter). If peer pressure was enough to make someone buy such a monstrosity, perhaps it can also bring about the change of mindset to move on as well.

I can't help thinking of the alien in Vonnegut's Breakfast of Champions, tapdancing and farting madly to warn us, only to be killed by a drunk patron repeatedly attempting to strike him like a match on the underside of the bar.

[Flakmeister]

 When I read that in BoC, I almost pissed myself laughing.. My recollection is that he was killed with a 9-iron...but my fuck was it funny.

[perchprism]

Cancers grow continuously.

[Cistercian]

 No oil=mass famine.The current high yield agriculture renders food an oil product.Unless a huge paradigm shift occurs, many will starve to death.Food as a weapon by TPTB.

   To say it will be ugly is an understatement...also keep in mind that the elements in charge are committed to depopulation, especially the poor non whites.

  Famine....a horse from the apocalypse.

[Oh regional Indian]

Yup Cistercian, our food is loaded with oil, from fertilizer to sowing/harvesting/distribution....and in some places, even waxing! The plan is clear and out in the open now.

ORI

[velobabe]

even my yoga mat and my big mat smell like oil. i don't like it. why can't they make stuff without oil. even my japanese papers have a lot of oil in them. i have to set them out far as i can. imagine oil paints and artists that used them their whole lives.

[Money Squid]

make your mat out of hemp, then you can smoke it afterwards :)

[Hulk]

I believe that is why she has oil based mats...

[AnAnonymous]

It's a drug that will absolutely kill the junkie, because it spawned a false, limitless growth world that was unsustainable. 

Rehab supposed to be painful. Going down after feeling high, not pleasurable to observe.

[Kayman]

Peak Oil is a Marketing Concept.  Oil seems to keep on coming no matter how many Jim Quinns, Tommy Malthus', or Chicken Littles abound.

Advertize scarcity and J6P is just grateful he can fill up at all.

I wonder if this country's political leadership deliberately has kept this nation attached to the oil teat, while depleting as much of other nation's (e.g. the Middle east) reserves as possible.

What, exactly, will the Mid East countries live on in fifty years? Interest on Treasuries ?

P.S. Thanks for the junks. Badge of Honor.

[Jim Quinn]

Badge of an idiot with no facts to back up his drivel.

[DavidPierre]

Here ... well documented and never denied... the 'Badge of an 9/11-IDIOT with no facts to back up his RACIST drivel.'

An oldie-but-goodie...

#780454

 
 Read down that page ... learn who SmokeyQuinn really is.

[RichardP]

Oil seems to keep on coming ...

Did you miss the point that oil keeps on coming ... at a decreasing rate of production?

[Seer]

Hey!  You're not playing fair!  This was a two-dimensional (thinking) rebuttal!  Geez, all is fine in two dimensions, didn't you get the memo?

[ElvisDog]

The obvious evidence for peak oil is that Saudi Arabia, despite all promises to the contrary, has not been able to exceed oil production that it had in 2005. Remember, peak oil is not the sudden disappearance of oil, but rather it's the point where oil production cannot be increased no matter what they try.

[snowball777]

Does it 'keep coming' like this?

Or... like this?

[tahoebumsmith]

Just wait until the crisis hits Saudi Arabia? And when we leave Iraq and the chaos resumes there? America once use to be the envy of the world and now our economic survival depends on countries that hate us and countries like China financing our debt. What we will soon find out is how living on a credit card abruptly ends when the limit gets cut off and the card gets taken away. It's called economic warfare, It doesn't matter how big your military is if you don't have the means to support it. There doesn't have to be bloodshed, only pain. Humpty has been holding on for a while now but soon he will not be able to hold on any longer as the wall below him crumbles and he can't prop and patch it anylonger.

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the king's horses and all the king's men
Couldn't put Humpty together again.

[yipcarl]

Great article however let me beg this question.  Once this recovery lie goes into the tank in our country, Europe, and everywhere else why would gas prices go up?  When people have no money, which they do not, and are buying mostly on Credit Cards what happens when those cards get shut off?  What happens when more jobs are lost?  

Who is going to pay 5 or 10 bucks a gallon for gas?  NO ONE.  

Once the arficial propping up of the markets subside and the recovery totally fails, it will be like a domino effect throughout the whole world and gas prices will precipitous drop to meet the enemic demand.  I'm not sure why this avenue wasn't explored.  The rest of the article is pretty good. 

[cossack55]

Well, of course the taxpayer will be paying $10/gal for the elites to ride around in "their" nice limos, but I get your point.  But if the price then drops to $1.03/gal who is still going to buy and for what reason.

[yipcarl]

Who is going to buy?  You mean gas at 1 buck?  Not to many people, that's the point. 

Furthermore there is plenty of oil as many have mentioned here.  It's all BS and lies to fuck with us, the pawns in the game. The concern is more control from the governments and less freedoms all this other talk takes our eyes off the real problem.  Our illustrious author should know that. 

[RichardP]

... there is plenty of oil as many have mentioned here.

Which is more important - the amount of oil in the ground, or the amount coming out of the ground?  How important is plenty of oil in the face of decreasing production and increasing demand?

[Seer]

No fair overloading the deniers with facts/logic ranging outside of two-dimensional thinking!

It's all conspiracy!  All I need to do is to get MY leader in position of power and all will be well I tell ya!

[AnAnonymous]

Who is going to pay 5 or 10 bucks a gallon for gas?  NO ONE.  

Many. Enough to maintain the price to $10.

Funny how many people got bamboozled by US economics which totally ignores supply side (pushing the frontier)

[cosmictrainwreck]

+10 AnAnyms. Reminds me of all those idiots I've heard fom 1970 forward say "shit...if they get to $1 a pack, I'm gonna quit....if they get to $2 a pack, that's it! if it ever starts costing me $3 a pack, fuck it...."

cost is now $4-$5/pack, with "bargain" carton @ $40; sales are "robust" [I had to do it....just kills me how a buzzword uttered in media shows up everywhere, at the speed of light]

[captain_menace]

I would like to develop a cigarette supply chain with you.

The cost up here is $7/$8 per pack.  Not sure what a carton is at, but I think it's north of $60.

Don't smoke myself, but know a lot of suckers... ahem, I mean smokers.

A woman I work with who grew up in post-collapse Russia said that street vendors sold jars full of cigarette butts.

[snowball777]

Wait until you see how much they have to shell out for fucking chemo!

Every time I see a smoker, I yell, "you know...there are much more efficient means of suicide readily available to you".

[cosmictrainwreck]

duh - did you guys actually miss the point, or just so pavlovian on the mention - nay, just the inference - of smoking? It was to address the laughable notion that "nobody will pay $10/gal". thank you

[Seer]

Relax, people are just having a bit of fun!

I thought it was pretty obvious, and therefore didn't feel the need to comment.

But now that it appears that you feel you've got a hollier-than-thou position I'd like to offer a rebuttal...

It's also a possibility that one day NO ONE will be interested in oil, and that perhaps one day all of our notions of currency will no longer exist.  This situtation has existed previously, and one day, say when our numbers are few and we find ourselves hiding out in caves trying to stay warm (during the next glacial period), there's a good possibility that it'll occur again.

One should be careful when one uses "never" or "always."

[cosmictrainwreck]

I will dispute (mildly to hotly) the "holier-than-thou" assessment. You're welcome to your opinion; perhaps that's how it printed out.....oh, well. As to the rest, you & I are obviously in disparate time-frames; frankly, I could give a shit about never-never land ["on a long enough timeline...."]. I was talking about the forseeable future, meaning while oil/gasoline are still pumping & selling. 

[snowball777]

Who is going to pay 5 or 10 bucks a gallon for gas?

Anyone who still has a job and can't bike to work or take public transpo, of which there are millions.

It's what they won't be buying as a result of having already paid that much for gas that will drag like quicksand.

[unununium]

> The political class and their mouthpieces in the corporate controlled mainstream media

The global uberclass and their mouthpieces in the government and mainstream media.

Fixed that for you.

[bob_dabolina]

Maybe their statisticians did their training at Goldman Sachs or the Federal Reserve.

The training was conducted at the BLS.

Other then that, I have no concerns.

[Yen Cross]

Hey! I'm sure your local casino cashes your monthly hand-outs. What exactly does the acronym (BLS) MEAN? I'm retarded. J-J-J_jimmy sa-s-sai-said so.

[cosmictrainwreck]

Bureau of Labor Statistics, the boyz that print whatever bullshit their masters tell them to (employment data). Referred to some here as one cog in the Department of Truth

[Yen Cross]

J-J-Jest chekin! Thanks! From a respected poster. It's amazing how people throw crap around. Maybe we can look deeper into GAO? Have a good weekend Cosmic! Well done!

[cosmictrainwreck]

from a "respected" poster? ha! take a poll....

look into GAO?? [a little help here, ya'll] My gut feel with no research is they put out some mutated form of truthiness, but SO WHAT? The pols then spin it & use it however they want for whatever axe they're grinding at the moment... would that it weren't so

[BenLightYear]

by BenLightYear
on Sat, 03/05/2011 - 03:04
#1021624

What would happen if we stopped printing? What i mean is what would happen if we set interest rates at a reasonable average rate of say 3.25% and left them there? What would happen if we changed the budget to where we broke even? If we lowered the budget and raised taxes? Aren't we in a perpetual state of holy shit? Is this not going to end badly? Is this not going to be a bumpier than shit ride no matter what we do? Why don't we stop the monetary and fiscal bull shit fiasco? Why don't we stand up and say "OK in the last 100 years some people fucked some stuff up and the 99% of the rest plead too dumb to have any clue what was happening;?

Can't we see that most economic models are flawed? Can't we see the correct parts and the incorrect parts of each clearly? Who the fuck is bernanke to sit in that chair and at best either show complete ignorance or corrupt mentality towards the very people who allow him to sit in that chair?

(bernanke i pick on only cause unlike most of our elected representatives he actually understands his god damn job...the number of our politicians who have no clue about the very things they vote on and how they work is 2nd only to the fact the majority of the country is unable or unwilling to see their complete lack of qualifications to make the laws and rules and create money/debt in our names)

Do we really need our lives to go through such a great trauma to wake up and at the very least pay attention? Do we not vote these people into office? Are we not the ones who choose the ones to coordinate our society?

Are they our leaders or are they the men and women we choose how to govern a nation with the sole intent and purpose of making every single citizens lives better and the future for our children brighter?

Their has to be a better way to make a country and economy function right? Are the ignorant majority and the crooked minority really so great that with our current level of knowledge we are honestly unable to provide a functioning and benefiting society?

edit reply flag as junk (0)

by BenLightYear
on Sat, 03/05/2011 - 03:49
#1021635

What if instead of the very small minority of us rewrote our fiscal and monetary policy? How about a group people who understand how it works ( i don't have a degree however in the last year i have read every single piece of econ theory, looked over every graph, chart, model, read every single argument against such that i could get my hands on) I by no means can fix this by myself. By no means am i capable of writing an economic play book by myself. To do so would require time and ability that i myself am unable to supply solely. If a group of 10 or so new school ( meaning we understand whats wrong and have ideas on how to fix it ) theorists got together and built, dissected and then reassembled an economic model that would actually work.

If we set basic fundamentals in regards to bank ratio, money creation, spending/taxation, regulated from corruption while not impeding business past oversight, regulated the risk associated with lending by institutions who should hold safe money, adopted a fair taxation rate which would be more fair based on cost of living compared to earnings ( I feel the amount of taxes people pay should skew from low to higher based on the fact that those who live grandly can afford it without it affecting their actual lifestyle...i am not proposing a 5%-95% range...i don't think it would need to be anywhere near as drastic) fix all the loopholes, money you earn is taxed a that the rising ratio based on the amount of money the govt spends the previous year...every years budget will include the tax rate ratio ( a constant ratio in reference to each other but vary from say 10%-50% one year to 12%-52% the following year thus for our govt to spend a dollar they must tax for that dollar) what if we wrote a true economic model...what if we took everything that we know base it off of where we are at ( people hate change however i think people would get more behind a change that was more fluid than abrupt) and wrote a govt fiscal and monetary playbook that worked and could not be disputed? If written and followed business would adapt, public and private wealth would adapt, and i believe both would strive knowing exactly what to expect and keeping the institutions that are meant to be solid aka banks, investments, insurance, under regulation that makes them the properly regulated environment they should be. Banks have no need to make large margins of profit. Naturally some bank policies would be regulated as needed to provide a low risk, highly solvent institution that can expand a small amount of money to provide growth but a more acceptable rate of growth ie natural growth or maybe .25% over natural.

If we write it we can fix it. If it was written so it worked and if we voted people into office who understand it, agree with it, and believe in it then they could put it into affect. As outlandish as this may sound it truly does not sound impossible or even impractical. By the time we finished it things will be at the point where more are willing to listen and look for a way to make things right.

We don't have too decide how much government or how little. We don't have to decide what the govt spends money on just he fact whatever they spend is taken back in with tax receipts the following year. Just simple economic ratio's that coordinate how to keep things in a steady environment with natural growth in a properly regulated environment. We stop our politicians from spending more than they pay for, a fed res that can not keep their hands off of monetary policy. ( i swear it's like a kid with a new toy especially now...each chairman believes he is so much smarter than the last chairman or the 100 years of economic thought he has been taught). We set the economic model and elect representatives who will keep the ratio's intact.

edit reply flag as junk (0)

by BenLightYear
on Sat, 03/05/2011 - 04:35
#1021658

I have been reading this website for over 6 months now. Tyler I thank you for providing a place where I learn in one paragraph and laugh my ass off in the next. I praise you for supplying a viewpoint contrary to what most are led to believe. I am grateful to my friend who directed me hear. Like I said I have spend the better part of the last year reading everything i could get my hands on. I sometimes found I ran into the problem of being able to actually visualize what it was that I was reading and the commentary/debate on this site has helped. More often than not I find myself being more able to argue against what i see and hear not because i remember someone else told me it was wrong but because i can actually see and understand why it is wrong.

Tyler

I would like a response to the post I made right before this one. I would like you to answer me as too why a group of 10 or so people can not sit down and write a fiscal and monetary policy that in effect would work.

From what I have learned I truly believe their is an equation, a formula, a treatise that if followed would lead to a stable pro growth ( albeit it natural) dependable economy that although it would start off in a less than desired state if it was stuck too would lead to a stable and productive govt and economy over a short to long period of time.

I would like you to respond. I would like you too tell me that I clearly don't understand enough and that what i propose is beyond man's means.

If it is not beyond our means than I would like you too tell my why you would be against doing such.

If it is not beyond our means and if you are not against it then maybe its time we sit down and write a play book.

Maybe its time we gather a small # of capable and intelligent people and we create an economy that actually works. That actually functions. That actually has a future.

By no means am I the most capable man to do this. By no means do I think I myself am able to accomplish this. In no way do i think this is something a single person could sit down and do without 9 other people correcting his flaws, dissecting his flaws, and recreating the solution.

I see once in awhile you interject here and their. I noticed you dissect news ( alot of which is news that actually pertains to this countries and the global economies juggling act of incompetence, misunderstanding, misuse, and corruption that we would otherwise not come across through normal news channels) and then leave it up to us to further dissect and debate on. I have noticed that you don't jump into the arguments after your posting. I am aware there are im sure numerous reasons why this could be. I give you the benefit of the doubt as to your reasons and intentions.

However I am calling you out. I have sat here for quite awhile now wondering why if there are people smart enough out there to say why others are wrong then of that bunch some must be smart enough to actually fix it.

I would like a response. I would like an answer. If I am crazy or delusional than plz say just that and I will bother you no more. I will go back to reading and keeping to myself. However if I am not, if what i propose is doable then maybe its time we get to work

We now realize beyond any doubt that corruption and ignorance if allowed to continue unabated will eventually ruin even the strongest nation.

Is today the day we stop what started as arguably the greatest nation in history from the death spiral it is in?

I ASK YOU TYLER IS TODAY THAT DAY?

[Backspin]

I know you asked Tyler for a response, but I'm reading right now and this is a public forum, so I'll respond.

I find one fundamental flaw in your thesis, although let me say that I'm with you in sentiment.  The people in charge have certainly made a mess of things.

The solution, though, is not to put a different group of people in charge, for they will surely make a mess of things as well.

For example, Bernanke has kept interest rates artificially low, and has stoked the inflationary fires in doing so.  The solution, though, is not to set them at 3.25%, as you say.  The solution, rather, is to not set them at all.  The market will set them just fine.  If Joe wants to borrow some money from Sam to buy a house, who the hell is Ben Bernanke to say what the rate ought to be.  Sam should size up the borrower, asses the risk, and set a rate that makes sense for that situation.  Adam Smith's invisible hand is capable of setting a myriad of rates all over the country, and fine tuning them every day for the most efficient possible outcome.  So then, the solution is not to replace Bernanke with someone else, but to remove Bernanke.  In other words, let the free market do the job, not simply a different group of oligarchs.  Make the government smaller, much smaller, and the invisible hand will take care of the rest.

[BenLightYear]

The dream of pure free market capitalism would entail crashing our system and starting over. I dont understand why everyone on this site has 2 options and only 2 for the future. Either everything crashes and we have mass die off due to not being able to find food or a NWO type organization that exerts complete control over the planet and we forfeit the little bit of freedom we have left and just become slaves to the cartel in charge

I don't see how setting a base exchange rate if NOT adjusted wouldn't be ok. A rate that allows those who save money to get a return on said money without it being at risk. A rate that encouraged growth but only under a reasonable risk related scenario. IE natural growth.

At some point someone is going to have to come up with a realistic thesis or treatise that could be applied that the average person can understand and get behind. I really hope that it hasnt come to the point that the minority who understand what is going on and what led to it/ allowed it to fester have given up. I personally have never counted on the masses to make a change. My hope always centered around the folks who's comments I read when I first started coming to this website 6 months or so ago. It seems quite ironic that when I finally have gotten to the point that I understand the underlying that those folks have gone to greener threads only to leave me with my aggravation and a bunch of bernanke jokes.

[Diogenes]

If Bernanke stops printing money, money will become scarce and expensive. That means interest rates will go up. But the federal government is already spending 4.6% of the budget on interest. And as the debt goes up, so does the interest expense. If interest rates go up, you are screwed.

If Bernanke keeps printing money, there will be too much money chasing too few goods. This is called inflation. When there is inflation, interest rates go up. If interest rates go up, you are screwed.

This is known as being up shit creek without a paddle.

There is another alternative. In fact there are hundreds of them and more being proposed on this board every day. None of them will work, and by that I mean none of them will let the US go back to the top of the heap without pain and sacrifice. The ones that call for pain and sacrifice, can never be implemented on purpose under the present system.

In other words, you are up shit creek without a paddle.

The only course open to you seems to be to continue on into fantasy land with your foot planted firmly on the gas pedal until the motor blows or you run off a cliff at 100 MPH.

In other words, you are up shit creek without a paddle.

I sincerely hope I am wrong but so far, have seen no evidence that there is any good way out.

[Backspin]

I don't think I would limit it to two options, but some issues are in fact binary.  The government either gets bigger or it gets smaller.  Those are essentially the only two options.  Now in either case, there are a variety of forms it might take, but on the issue of size and growth of government, I'm for smaller government.  Not zero government, but a whole lot closer to zero than we are now.

Regarding interest rates, I'm not saying there should not be interest rates.  There should.  I'm saying that Bernanke, or anyone else, shouldn't be setting them.  And there is also no inherent reason why they should be the same for everyone.  A business owner buying a property in the industrial northeast faces different risks than a farmer buying land in the midwest.  Their interest rates don't need to have much if anything to with each other, or much in anything to do with the T-Bill rate.  I say let the interest rate be negotiated between the borrower and lender.  The government does not need to be involved.

And what is true in the area of interest rates is also true in many other areas of the economy.  The government does not need to be involved in health care, education, or energy, for starters.  I know that only tangentially addresses your question, but I do think that smaller government, and sound money, is a big part of the solution.

[blunderdog]

You don't sound crazy/delusional, and the goal of creating an effective economy is simple enough to be accomplished assuming a static universe.  The problem comes about when interrelationships which appear to be necessary/permanent are changed by significant changes in technology or social organization.  Various economic models have lasted for widely different periods of time depending on their foundation.  Agrarian economy was probably the longest-lived, but when mass-production of food became possible without significant labor inputs, it had to collapse.

[BenLightYear]

But if the economic model was static couldnt things change around it? Think about what I half ass proposed ( it was late last night and I just typed i didnt really put alot of pre-thought into it so it is kinda jumbled)

If we kept all the ratio's static and companies and citizens knew what was what and could count on it staying the same over time wouldnt things adjust to the static rather than the static changing with new developments?

[blunderdog]

Think of anything you'd peg a medium of exchange to, and then think about changes in the way society is organized which might affect the availability of the original resource or the perceived importance of it.

How do you create an economy in the first place?  You need widespread consensus that an effectively arbitrary set of rules governing exchange of goods/services will be shared and enforced.  The competing interests include *everyone* who would participate in the system.

This is no small task.  It's about formalizing a set of rules to govern behavior of a biological system.  Good luck.  From the second paragraph, it sounds like you're talking about some kind of currency exchange rate, which is already about ten steps along in the process of creation of an economy in the first place.

[BlakeFelix]

IMO designing an economy that functions several orders of magnitude more efficiently than our current model is neither crazy nor impossible. It would be very disruptive however, so the social safety nets should be fixed first to minimize trauma. People with money/power aren't yet convinced that things have to change so today isn't the day though. What we have more than anything it seems to me is a crises in good faith in government. I wouldn't hold my breath.

[Seer]

"what would happen if we set interest rates at a reasonable average rate of say 3.25% and left them there?"

We'd run over the growth cliff.  That measly looking interest number of 3.25% means a growth of 3.25%, which means a doubling of everything (economics is everything!) in 21 years, and then another doubling of That in 21 years: in 42 years we'd have four times the output that we have today.

As Dr. Albert Bartlett lectures, the greatest failing of the human race is lack of understanding of the exponential function.

BTW - I did not read the rest of what you wrote, as the fundamentals would derail any subsequent information (unless it contained mass slap-downs, which, I'm thinking, a positive, happy solution-giver such as yourself wouldn't include).

[Seasmoke]

and its still winter !!!!......just wait until summer  !!!.....i thought 2012 would be the collapse but maybe its summer 2011

[Diogenes]

Jesus Christ. The collapse started in 2006. That pleasant floating sensation you feel is the same one Wile E Coyote feels as he passes the 50th floor of a 100 story building after jumping off the roof.

[DeltaDawn]

Good analogy!

[cosmictrainwreck]

was heard to say: "so far, so good...."

[Rodent Freikorps]

No. 2011 is the collapse.

2012 is The End.

[perelmanfan]

Expensive oil is far from an unmitigated disaster. An infinite supply of cheap oil would certainly kill off the planet. I'll take an uncomfortable adjustment period now over planetary heat death later.

[Long-John-Silver]

Oil is the cleanest burning energy source on the planet. Without it pollution will become even worse. People will return to burning coal and wood to heat water and their homes. Coal will return to it's status as king of electric power generation. Forget Solar panels, manipulated Silver prices caused 90% of the worlds supply to end up in land fills and now it's mostly all gone. Solar panels require substantial amounts of Silver. Wind turbines are a crewel joke. Backup natural gas power plants feed the grid when they are not working which is about 90% of the time. When it's cold or the wind speed is not just right natural gas fired turbine engines are supplying electric power for the grid. Electric cars? GM sold less than 300 Volts and Nissan sold less than 100 Leaf's even as gasoline prices rise ever higher. What will happen is the production of synthetic fuels made from coal as the Germans did at the end of WWII.

[Seer]

I'd like to know why you were junked.  All salient points, doesn't matter whether someone likes them or not, facts are facts...

I hate the oil paradigm, yet marvel at it.  I know that going backwards ain't going to be pretty; but, I know that it WILL happen and that we've just got to adjust.  No one is really going to be pleased/happy.

[Calmyourself]

Your little boogey man does not scare anyone who takes the time to do some research utilizing a clear common sense mind.  Go away and quarantine yourself before you infect someone..

[Stuck on Zero]

Peak oil ... poo!  There is enough oil in the ground to choke out the planet ten times over.   Deep oil is where black goo is.  Beneath the traditional oil in the Gulf of Mexico there is 400 billion bbls of deep oil.  What we have been pumping out is what leaks up through rock formations into the traditional salt domes where it's trapped.  The BP disaster should let you know that.  That was the highest producing well ever seen in history.  Russia ran out of conventional reserves thirty years ago and then discovered deep oil.  They are now the largest oil exporter. Oil companies play a clever little game of keeping the public at the scary edge of plentiful oil and peak oil.  If an alternative comes along they will drop the price of crude very quickly to put it out of business.

The real question is not when we run out of oil but will we choke to death on all the fumes or develop something better.

[That Peak Oil Guy]

Show us your sources for this claim.  Come on, don't hold back!

TPOG

[Yardfarmer]

google "Lindsey Williams +The Oil Non-Crisis"

[Rusty Shorts]

Gull Island Oil is a scam, much like Lindsey Williams.

http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/690171677.shtml

[akak]

Everything about Lindsey Williams just screams "charlatan" to me, even aside from his bogus and ludicrous "facts".  He is nothing but Lyndon LaRouche after anger management class.

[Nout Wellink]

Four months ago he predicted 'trouble in the middle east' and 'oil going back to $ 150 to $ 200 a barrel'. The first is happening right now and oil made a move from $ 86 to $ 104 in 2 weeks. Besides, his oil calls have been 100% correct sofar. 

[JimS]

"Trouble in the Middle East", damn, who would/could have thought of that one. Let's see, there's been "trouble" in that region for, 2000-3000 years. That would make for a difficult "prediction". The Bernank is creating "money" out of thin air, so, calling oil going back to $150-$200 level, isn't rocket science either. Of course, the Golden Sack, was calling for oil to hit $200, when it was at $147, and it promptly fell sharply. I am waiting for the Golden Sack to make a "prediction" on the future high-water price for oil, then I go short. That would be as "good-as-gold". We haven't seen the high water mark for oil yet, but it will fall back. Sadly, the trend is upward, and is not going to change much. The Bernank will create "money" from thin air for the foreseeable future. This is not going to end favorable for all of us in the middle or lower.

[Nout Wellink]

Aha, so you think it is normal that there is a regime change in Egypt, that they would kick Qaddafi out and that there would be turmoil in countries like Saudi-Arabia, Bahrein, Oman et al? 

[Seer]

And just what do you think passes for "normal?"

Go check out history and come back and report.

BTW - It's like all the morons calling to "take back our country" [the US] as though there's some noble era in which things were sane.

[Flakmeister]

"Trouble in the middle east" is like saying, there is going to be a lunar eclipise some time in the future. Now evaluate thatprediction in a scenario where you could not google it up and you did not know an astronomer who could calculate when....

Lindsey seems like a nice guy, he beats around the bush to point of agony but whatever.

Lindsey is a pastor and devout Christian, spreading the word that salvation is at hand if you accept Jesus...  Well I was always amused by the coincidence that this guy is selling spiritual as well as materialistic salvation with his Gull Island spiel (completely discredited elsewhere, BTW). There is mysterious thing that only he knows about and it will save you.

Think of it for a minute.

[bob_dabolina]

I'm not an oil expert but I like to investigate both sides of the coin in most situations.

As I am not an expert I am neither for or against any of these theories relating to oil but the following site has some sources that I found interesting.

http://www.freeenergynews.com/Directory/Theory/SustainableOil/

The one I found most interesting was how the Casini probe found reserves of hydrocarbons on Titan that dwarf that of Earth. There is also no evidence that life has ever existed on Titan, so where did the oil come from?

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/02/titans-organic/

[Jim Quinn]

It should be pretty cheap to fill up your Hummer on Titan.

[bob_dabolina]

The argument is that oil has come from dead shit. Seeing as only so much shit has died we have a finite amount of oil that is running out.

However, as the article above suggests Titan has loads of oil and no dead shit. So one could surmise that oil is not running out. Perhaps consumption is rising faster then production (which is also a bull market) but the likely hood of the origin of our hydrocarbons being derived from dead shit has been challenged justly in my view.

I wasn't suggesting filling up on Titan.

[akak]

Titan primarily has just some shallow lakes and a couple of small seas of liquid short-chain hydrocarbons, mostly methane with smaller amounts of ethane, and a modest amount of solid (due to the low temperature), photochemically polymerized hydrocarbon "sand" forming dunes in the equitorial regions.  None of these compounds would consist of petroleum as we would define it.  Still, quite an exotic environment by any measure.

[bob_dabolina]

What about Neptune which has complex hydrocarbons to include propane/butane?

Those come from dead dinosaurs too?

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11538166

[akak]

Who ever claimed that hydrocarbons are ONLY derived from biotic materials?

[bob_dabolina]

Lots of people

[Rusty Shorts]

Titans methane is more than likely Biotic in origin.

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/03/05/exclusive-nasa-scientists-claims-evidence-alien-life-meteorite/

[Bicycle Repairman]

Methane is dead aliens.  ROTFLMAO!!

[Rusty Shorts]

Methane is a by-product of microbial activity.

[Flakmeister]

No one credible has.... Extraterrestrial hydrocarbons are well known, mainly methane, C2-C6 stuff, relatively simple. It a helluva a leap to go further up the chain though. It is also not clear given the Earth geological history how much if any primordial methane survived. It tends to get oxidized also for typical earth temperatures it is light enough to "leak" away. Titan is cold enough to trap it. 

I do not doubt that there is some primordial methane in the earths interior. The point is that the prevailing temperature and pressures are not conducive to making higher order hydrocarbons out of the methane. If anything, the complex chains tend to be broken down to methane. Witness why oil is not typically found below the "cellar". Another thing about oil is the prescence of biological marker in *every* deposit found along with it being only found in sedimentary rocks. One field off Vietnam has oil in highly fractured granite that had seeped from neighboring sedimentary rock. The biological markers matched up. Oil has a fingerprint so to speak, a good petroleum geologist can tell you where a random sample of oil came from. 

[Seer]

Is Titan infinite?

Perhaps the earth is really filled with carmel nuggets and NOT oil?

Go challenge yourself behind closed doors...

[bob_dabolina]

double p

[slewie the pi-rat]

his argument is no less cogent than Quinn's, who is a longtime fave with the ladies b/c he never comes up for air. 

listen.  wwQE;  wwbanksterQE;  wwgoobermint/banksterQE.  also, these assholes appear to "control" intel agencies, militaries, media puke, the PTA & the Chambre du Cumersh, notably the car dealerships/financing and the RE conglomerates/financing.  in my town, they are taking over thrift stores, making them more expensive than Kohl's, somehow.

i have a point.  somewhere.  here:  the point is, we are not short of oil/gas/food/clothes/guns&ammo/PMs/or paper to the moon and beyond.

we are long fiat.  waaay too freaking long.  creating "money" from thin air to fund the Political Debt does not work, long-term, even in Keynesian Econ, if i'm not mistaken.  when LBJ ran the presses to juice The Great Society AND the vietnam war, he finally flipped himSelf off and decided not to go after that EZ 2nd term.  so nixon beats humphrey in '68, which has been the undisputed year of Best Primaries at every awards show since.

Lyndon Johnson goes PrintPrintPrint.  Tricky Dick hasta close the freaking gold window to keep the damned french from calling our gold away. 

get it?  about a decade later, volker's voodoo calmed the inflation genie, but the supply-siders are now sporting face omelettes, themselves.

growth based on easy credit and down home friendly terms is just fine along the flatter part of whatever curve we're ridin, here (total freaking ww.credit/troy oz gold? silver?) and "we" may actually be able to "save" some damned "financial system composed of too-big-too-fail (politically connected) money laundering and criminal wealth redistribution fronts", but at what cost?  oh, i know, they have the IMF and the "world" bank standing guard so nothing bad can happen.

we're not short of oil, right now, jim.  maybe tomorrow.  but no lines in my hood today, i don't care how many charts you paper us with.  now, "they" may "fix that" in a week, i realize all too well, myself.

we're short of common sense, self-examination, and the ability to wake up.

banking isn't obvious. only a few understand it well.  we probably don't know how x-rayz work either, or car ignitions, or novocaine, or traffic signals, either.  barney frank and chris dodd understand banking about as well as slewie.  maybe. 

way i see it at this point, either the people of america get what they NEED from the banksters, pdq, or, well, (lol) what IS their potential downside?

A: to be hacked to pieces by chain saws, run thru the wood chipperZ and fed to the pigs, so they can be enjoyed at the next 4th of july BBQ.

any questions?

[cosmictrainwreck]

yeah, I got a question... are you one of those "conspiracy" nuts, or what?

[OldTrooper]

I don't know, cosmictrainwreck.  But if I had to guess I'd put money on 'or what'.  That reads like something straight out of a powerful acid trip at its peak.

[Jim Quinn]

You forgot to take your lithium today.

[Bob]

Or been hitting the tiger blood hard.

[Hulk]

your posts are painful...

[Snake]

I actually liked the writing .... has character, density, hook ...

[slewie the pi-rat]

HULK

fuk you in the ass, shitforbrains, and all yer little toy friends, too.  my post was trying to defend StuckOnZero@#1021950 from the bullshit ThatPeakOilGuy tried on him w/ "show us your sources"!

my point, again, is that peak or no peak, THERE IS NO SCARCITY OF OIL OR GASOLINE RIGHT NOW.  no lines.  ok?

all we are seeing is bankster-induced inflation. QE.  ever heard of it?

pull yer fuking heads out of yer asses and CHECK IT THE FUK OUT, k?

and yes, Quinn might need a little fresh air, also, at this point.

hope that's not too uncomfortable for all you gamblin homey asswipes!!!

[Hulk]

Listen dickhead, I don't know what planet you are from, but go the fuck back...

[slewie the pi-rat]

well, hulk: since you didn't stoop to addressing any of my points, i'll award you the volley on style points, alone.

peace, bro.

oh---venus!

[Seer]

"THERE IS NO SCARCITY OF OIL OR GASOLINE RIGHT NOW. "

Depends on how you define scarcity.  I mean, what's the measure?

Since the System is predicated on growth (everything is reported in "growth" terms) and is struggling to grow (I'd offer that we've actually gone flat and are working on "decline" - http://www.indexmundi.com/world/gdp_real_growth_rate.html) I wouldn't feel so comfortable about using BOLD and CAPITALS. Just sayin'...

NOTE: If this is a supply-always-matches-demand sort of thing, then, well, yeah, I suppose, but that's really only a marketing phrase, the bottom line is whether there's sufficient resources to drive growth.

[avonaltendorf]

BP [Macondo] disaster should let you know that.  That was the highest producing well ever seen in history.

Fail. You know nothing about E&P or GOM or the Macondo well. Abiotic source of hydrocarbons is a myth. Not even worth explaining.

[trav7777]

would like to know upon what basis you idiots proclaim that Horizon was the "largest producing well in history."

Because it fucking isn't true...

[bob_dabolina]

Don't know but this says that there are wells in Texas that have been producing for 90 years.

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_highest_producing_oil_well_in_history

I find that to be significant.

[Rusty Shorts]

wiki.answers ???

[bob_dabolina]

Yates oil field was mentioned in that link.

-Google

- Yates oil field

- Enter

- First link/click it

- Read

[Flakmeister]

Yep, the Permian Basin, one of the greatest oil fields ever found. It still produces lots, but it has been pin cushioned and the wells produce ~10-200 barrels a day...

The Permian was the field that won WW II.

[John_Coltrane]

But consider this.  It takes energy to extract energy-that's all kinds of energy.  The drill rigs require steel which require iron ore, etc.  Refining requires high temperatures.  The only thing of real importance is do you extract more ultimate energy than you expend?  The larger this ratio, the cheaper the energy resource.   Very few ask the question does it require more energy to produce a new vehicle from virgin materials than one saves in fuel costs?   For hybrid cars, due to the battery costs and lack of ability to recycle those based upon Lithium, the answer it no, yet those who don't do a wells-to-wheels analysis keep pushing such mal-investments. 

[ebworthen]

FOOD, this is ultimately about FOOD.

Guess who will need the oil to feed their masses and only has 3% of reserves?  China.

Why has Russia ramped up military spending and naval vessels?  China.

Everyone, including the U.S.A. needs oil for FOOD, not just SUV's and other autos.

The fertilizers, pesticides, and the modern agricultural machinery needed for the tilling, planting, care, harvesting and transporting of crops will NOT run on solar, electricity, or wind.

The trucks, the trains, and the planes to transport the food to hungry people need oil.

There will either be more oil for everyone so they can EAT or fewer human beings.

[RockyRacoon]

You're onto something here.   The problem(s) don't amount to getting more oil, food, or any other resource.   The problem is too many people who want to live better than their neighbor (city block or adjoining country).   Tragedy of the Commons.

[Calmyourself]

You are onto something here as RR stated.  Are we seeing a manipulated ME as a means to destroy China, nothing more than a double cross to milk them of labor for thirty years and then screw them on their $'s.  Can the PTB be counting on something as volatile and unpredictable as the unfed Chinese peasantry to bring down the Dragon as a global player and competitor for scarce oil resources. Are the Chinese aware and hence buying other assets eg. east Africa.  It helps to put yourself in shoes that feel comfortable with a bi-power world that evolved into a single power, hmmm.. More thought required.

[RockyRacoon]

All well and good, but I can't see the ME turmoil being orchestrated this well!

Our (or some nefarious Global Evil Empire) thugs couldn't organize a grass-roots ordeal like this -- period.   The CIA couldn't get enough folks on the same page to predict sunrise.  Sometimes we have to believe that a power greater than ourselves is making things right.   Hey, it could happen.   I'm not one who believes in Karma, or any other power than the human psyche having had enough, finally.

[OldTrooper]

I can't see the ME turmoil being orchestrated this well!

That does seem unlikely.

But then I always thought that TPTB had some further plan than the never-ending occupation of an (allegedly) democratic Iraq.  It just never made sense to me that there wasn't some bigger game being played in the ME.

[cosmictrainwreck]

RR: by point: you're dead-on about CIA; bunch of goof-balls. YES, the uprisings were not orchestrated (by PTB, anyway). A power greater is what I plead to for this pitiful country, and the rest, too. Works in mysterious ways, most times can't clearly separate the human/divine actions...BUT sometimes clear on a personal level. Was mulling collapse of USSR...that came "out of the blue". What's not clear (yet) is if we're "better off" for it....

[Calmyourself]

All good points well stated above I will rethink that hypothesis and try to factor in less direct involvements.  It is just so damn convenient..

[cosmictrainwreck]

re-think hypothesis by all means - if you can figure out what's going on & what the schemes are, you be the Wizard & I can't wait to hear.... :). Seriously, I meant to reply above, the thing about China, etc., bet yer bippy there are "plans".... questions are: what are the plans, what adjustments PTB need to make (or can they?). Am hoping unfolding events fuck 'em up

[RockyRacoon]

Never attribute to malice what stupidity can explain.

[Seer]

China has already been given the blanket with smallpox in it- capitalism and the "happy-motoring meme."  Oil manipulation isn't needed.  Besides, why would the US want to destabilize China when a lot of its [US] corporations profit from there and China is a big purchaser of UST?

Everything's just a subplot to the simple fact that we're rapidly running out of a limited resource.  Those who control us require compliance, which has been through the happy-motoring meme, and without that it's via the MIPC (Military Industrial Prison Complex).  Creating hobgoblins is necessary to distract from their [TPTB] controlling power.

The simplest answer/reason is usually the correct one.

[gall batter]

The "greatest nation in history" does not have a representative government.  As Rummy said, and I paraphrase, you don't go to war with the army you want but with the army you have.  Well, we're at war here.  A class war.  The people in the under and middle class aren't going to war with weapons, because that top percentage has ALL the artillery.  

[sabra1]

according to lindsey williams:

US would hardley drill for oil in america, but would buy oil from arabs as long as it was  paid for with treasuries, in other words our debt. dollar crashing will be the excuse to reneg on those treasuries, screwing the arabs. when oil reaches 150 to 200, the US will then drill on US soil from the huge oil fields which weren't touched, but, the price of oil will not come down. china has already made a deal with russia to get their supply, which will be paid for in yaun. it's all planned! this coming week, will be the turning point, which will change the world forever. i pity the children.

[Seasmoke]

does anyone feel confident in the morons who are leading us, to actually outsmart the Russians and/or Chineese in the ultimate game of Chess......Better learn Mandarin and how to make vodka

[OldTrooper]

I don't think they could outsmart my horse.

Got the vodka angle covered.  I try to absorb as much Chinese as possible from fortune cookies.

[BigDuke6]

VODKA

Get genuine imported GOLD label russian vodka from internet.

Freeze for 6 to 9 months.

It takes on a consistency similar to runny syrup.

Goes down very smooth.

Then you'll know why so many ruskies are alchololies.

[slewie the pi-rat]

well, 6, i see you are using the "Freeze for 6 to 9 months/age the VODKA & cheddar, togeddar," rule.

we have standards to uphold!

[falak pema]

I pity your fertile brain already swimming in yuaned vodka.

[Seer]

Oh, goody!  I love happy endings!

I'm riding the unicorn and bringing skittles to the party, yea!

[Gully Foyle]

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/03/march-4-2011-damned-if-you...

As the real economy is being gutted to the bone, the rising markets are nothing but a mirage, a talk-to-the-hand scheme devised by the spin masters who know what all of you like to hear and who feed you exactly that. Until their masters decide the time has come when they can't squeeze enough money out of you anymore to justify keeping the game going.

And then it will all vanish into thin air. And you won't even know what hit you. You’ll be left with a whole load of nothing. No services, no benefits, no jobs, no homes, just a huge bunch of empty bags. Don't let the markets fool you, look at the situation on the ground. That reflects the future much better. We will probably see another set or two of positive numbers for jobs, and the stock markets may not have reached their highest peak. But it's all the hot air of false optimism: the economy is irreparably broken. For a while, you can delay debt payments by creating more debt, but that is a dead end street, and the piper waits at the other side.

...

Yes, gold is a good investment, but only after you’ve covered your "basic bases", when food and shelter and access to water are taken care of. And when you can afford to sit on it for 5-10 years, or even longer. That will work for some of us, but not for most. Sitting on gold when you're hungry, cold, or thirsty doesn't make a lot of sense.

Our point of view at The Automatic Earth is that in the near future there will be far too many people who hold gold, but will have to sell to cover losses and/or necessities, and into a buyer's market to boot, to keep the price of gold up. Not a popular view, we know.

Where and how do we differ from the 'priests of gold'? It all comes down to the extent to which the world as we know it today is going to change. That extent is in our view greatly underestimated. In the world of finance, there is hardly any recognition of even the mere possibility that owning stocks, bonds, or even gold may not necessarily be the best way to go forward.

The main thought remains that if you have enough of something "fungible", you can always trade it and buy whatever it is you need. But that's not necessarily true. It may be the model we have grown up in, but it's by no means universal. Besides, even if you own a ton of gold, and you have water and food covered, but those around you where you live have not, what exactly is it that you have bought yourself? A prison?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell030111.html

And what is this company? Why, it's USA Inc. The article is written by the well-known stock analyst, Mary Meeker. She writes about the US's finances as though the US was a corporation.

Mary writes, "Imagine no Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corp or Coast Guard, no federal courts or prisons, no national park service, no food and drug administration, no embassies, no salaries for Congress. That's what it would take to finance the budget by 2025 and still pay interest on America's debts, without either raising revenues or reducing entitlement growth. That's certainly not a recognizable America."

Later in the article, Meeker notes that the nation's problem is not a revenue problem, it's a SPENDING problem. She writes, "Simple math says that balancing the budget purely by raising taxes would require doubling rates across the board, which would kill growth."

So as I see it, what's coming up is a massive cut-back in federal (plus states and municipalities and cities) spending.

This is the stark and painful picture of the years ahead. The pressure is going to fall on our craven politicians. They are going to be faced with the duty of ordering massive cut-backs in spending. Every politician wants to cling to his or her office (because of the power and huge perks), and one of the ways to do that is to present juicy spending programs to their constituents. Now politicians are faced with the exact opposite. They will have to present the voters with LESS in the form of painful cut-backs and with those cut-backs the chance of being voted out of office.

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2011/03/only-details.html

Still, the report does leave out a few salient details.

Like the fact that the average length of time that the unemployed are out of work has just hit a new record.

And the fact that a growing number of workers are leaving the labor force, most likely involuntarily.

And the fact that the broadest measure of unemployment, U-6 unemployment (i.e., total number of unemployed, plus all marginally-attached workers, plus total employed part-time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally-attached workers) is not far off its historic highs.

But those are just minor details. Right?

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/people-of-earth-prepare-for-...

People Of Earth: Prepare For Economic Disaster

...

The global price of food could potentially be even more concerning.  As you read this, there are about 3 billion people around the globe that live on the equivalent of 2 dollars a day or less.  Those people cannot afford for food prices to go up much.

But global food prices are rising.  According to the United Nations, the global price of food has risen for 8 consecutive months.  Last month, the global price of food set a brand new all-time record high.  Many are starting to fear that we could actually be in the early stages of a major global food crisis.

The price of just about every major agricultural commodity has been absolutely soaring during the past year....

*The price of corn has doubled over the last six months.

*The price of wheat has more than doubled over the past year.

*The price of soybeans is up about 50% since last June.

*The price of cotton has more than doubled over the past year.

*The commodity price of orange juice has doubled since 2009.

*The price of sugar is the highest it has been in 30 years.

Unfortunately, the production of food in most countries around the world is very highly dependent on oil, so as oil goes up in price this is going to make the food crisis even worse.

Hold on to your hats folks.

Also, as I have written about previously, the world is facing some very serious problems when it comes to water.  Due to the greed of the global elite, there is not nearly enough fresh water to go around.  The following are some very disturbing facts about the global water situation....

*Worldwide demand for fresh water tripled during the last century, and is now doubling every 21 years.

*According to USAID, one-third of all humans will face severe or chronic water shortages by the year 2025.

*Of the 60 million people added to the world’s cities every year, the vast majority of them live in impoverished slums and shanty-towns with no sanitation facilities whatsoever.

*It is estimated that 75 percent of India's surface water is now contaminated by human and agricultural waste.

*Not only that, but according to a UN study on sanitation, far more people in India have access to a mobile phone than to a toilet.

*In northern China, the water table is dropping one meter per year due to overpumping.

These days, one of the trendy things to do is to call water "the oil of the 21st century", but unfortunately that is not a completely inaccurate statement.  Fresh, clean water is something that we all need, but right now world supplies are getting tight.

Our politicians and the global elite could be doing something about this if they really wanted to, but right now they seem perfectly fine with what is happening.

On top of everything else, the sovereign debt crisis is worse than it has ever been before.

All of the major global central banks have been feverishly printing money in an attempt to "paper over" this crisis, but it is not going to work.

Most Americans don't realize it, but right now the continent of Europe is a financial basket case.  Greece and Ireland would have imploded already if they had not been bailed out, and now Portugal is on the verge of collapse.  The interest rate on Portugal's 10-year notes has now been above 7% for about 3 weeks, and most analysts believe that it is only a matter of time before they are forced to accept a bailout.

Sadly, if the entire global economy experiences a slowdown because of rising oil prices, we could see half a dozen European nations default on their debts if they are not bailed out.

[Kayman]

Gully

All commodities, stocks, etc. are rising from the Bernanke.

Put the Fed rate to 5% and watch prices, including oil, collapse.

If savings could be put in the bank and you could get a reasonable return (instead of subsidizing the cooked books of the banksters), then free markets would return and  the economy might function again.

[BigDuke6]

i didn't read that diatribe.

to post something that long you need a bit more gravitas laddie.

[Seer]

And you're riddiculing that posting?  Your's is of what value?

NOTE: had you read it and then concluded it as such Then you wouldn't appear to be a hypocrite.

[Raphio]

Um.... Americans have the cheapest gas prices in the Western world.... cross the border into Canada and prices rise @ 30%. In Canada, we have had over $4.00 a gallon gas for the past year, prices are now in the $5.00 range.... and the Loonie is trading at over $1.02 US. UK gas prices jumped to $8.00 yesterday..same in Europe - they are paying roughly double US prices.... So uh...try to get over yourselves please

[duncecap rack]

The U.S. and Canada should tax the price of oil up to $8 a gallon. The price of gas should reflect it's true value. We should not waste this resource on ego enhancing automobiles.

[bob_dabolina]

Speak for yourself.

[Kayman]

dunce

Tax derivatives and all financial churning and skimming, but do not raise taxes on gasoline.  Subsidized Banking Criminals and unproductive Government Parasites need no more help.

In a country like England, where you could spit across it, gasoline is a pretty good bang for the buck.

In countries of vast distances, like the U.S. and Canada, transportion is necessity, not a luxury. Cities, excepted.

[Milton Waddams]

Does anyone know when the automobile really became an extension of the ego? The first cars were basically all the same, with some color variation correct? I recall an old article from the 1950's explaining car etiquette. It was considered bad taste to drive a better car than your boss and if you were a manager it was important to drive a better car than your underlings. People are insane. Of course the following ten pages were probably full page advertisements by car and oil companies. lulz

[Long-John-Silver]

Except for a few very large cities, public transportation in the USA is non-existent. People traveling to their job must have cheap gasoline. They simply can't afford to travel to a job when the cost of travel exceeds the money received from that job. When you add in state and local taxes most people only receive 50% or less for their pay. When gasoline hit $4 a gallon the economy in the USA crashed. It's about to crash again as $3.50 a gallon will simply not work for most of the working population.

[Calmyourself]

As an aside, I will be the black car behind you..

[Yen Cross]

I'll be driving the tow truck!

[Seer]

I recall reading a fairly intense probing into why Canadian pay about 20% more for everything.  Sadly, there was no real reason for it (no, taxation rates couldn't explain it; nor could market size), only a willingness by Canadians to happily pay more...

But, yes, folks in NA are spoiled...

[f16hoser]

.....for whom oil is an investment, not an expense!

Outstanding statement.

[rlouis]

my 2 cents: PNAC was all about extending u.s./u.k./nato global dominance through control of energy.  Neocon thinking is to use every last bit of a resource so that the resource holder or other competitors can't.  Strategic decisions, guided by the petroleum industry,  most visibly represented by bush1/ bush2-cheney, and of course, rockefeller-kissinger-breshinski, only leads to the death of empire, which is ironically suicidal from a real politik perspective, because the objective of a NWO is more likely to result in a dark age. A hardly significant satisfaction (very little value) of this is that ole Henry K will probably die knowing what a failure his entire career has been.

A sound policy could have been instituted over 30 years ago to develop leading alternative energy systems, raising global living standards, self determined population control, and affordable health care as opposed to what the progeny of the rockefeller clan has created, may they be forever compressed in a black hole of hell.  There is a very inspiring quote in rockefeller plaza, it is the ultimate example Orwellian newspeak, not for its content but because of who says it: 

'"I believe in the supreme worth of the individual and in his right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
I believe that every right implies a responsibility; every opportunity, an obligation; every possession, a duty.
I believe that the law was made for man and not man for the law; that government is the servant of the people and not their master.
I believe in the Dignity of labour, whether with head or hand; that the world owes no man a living but that it owes every man an opportunity to make a living.
I believe that thrift is essential to well ordered living and that economy is a prime requisite of a sound financial structure, whether in government, business or personal affairs.
I believe that truth and justice are fundamental to an enduring social order.
I believe in the sacredness of a promise, that a man's word should be as good as his bond; that character not wealth or power or position - is of supreme worth.
I believe that the rendering of useful service is the common duty of mankind and that only in the purifying fire of sacrifice is the dross of selfishness consumed and the greatness of the human soul set free.
I believe in an all-wise and all-loving God, named by whatever name, and that the individuals highest fulfilment, greatest happiness, and widest usefulness are to be found in living in harmony with His Will.
I believe that love is the greatest thing in the world; that it alone can overcome hate; that right can and will triumph over might."

[samsara]

ya well, good luck with that.

[falak pema]

Kaiser Soze stuff. Legendary...

[Seer]

A sound policy could have been instituted over 30 years ago to develop leading alternative energy systems, raising global living standards, self determined population control...

'"I believe in the supreme worth of the individual and in his right to life

I've always stuggled with how humans would manage populations without it being some sort of Logan's Run or Hitler-like solution.  Would it be three wolves vs. one sheep voting what was for dinner?

I don't mean to sound flip, but this goes to the very heart of everything.  Without some ability to manage our population sizes (and I'm not going to offer up any "solutions") I'm afraid that we're only going to rely on Mother Nature/God to deal with it, thereby allowing TPTB to continue spreading Their genes...

[sabra1]

i've always had this on my mind. after a well has run dry, there is a huge, huge, huge, empty cavern where the oil used to be. can you all imagine the pressure placed on this area? that, is why eartquakes are getting worse and worse.  

[Money Squid]

Not exactly - the oil is in the pore spaces and to the extent that pore spaces are interconnected some oil can be extracted, but much of the oil remains. Extraction is usually about 10 to 40ish percent depending on the viscocity, interconnectedness of the pore spaces, and the enhanced recovery efforts (steam, water flood, fire flood, etc.). In the old days the wells were allowed to blow out greatly reducing reservoir pressure, then operators learned to maintain the pressure to so as to not allow the formation to collapse from the weight of the overlying rock. Reservoir pressure is maintained by injecting recovered water or water from another source, so there is no large carvern, cave, hole as it simply could not withstand the weight of the rock above. Surface levels have dropped significantly in Long Beach, CA (about 20 feet) and the CA central valley (about 30 feet) because of fluid extraction (oil in LB and groundwater in central CA), but there is no large empty space underground. Earthquakes can be created/triggered by high pressure injection such as deep disposal of germ/chemical warefare agents (Colorado) or injection of fracking fluids to enhance gas well recovery (Texas, Missouri, Mississipi) - there has been an increase of Eqs in these areas due to the increase of gas well fracking.

[samsara]

Try a different mental picture.  Like pouring a quart of oil in to a dishpan full of sand.

Any cavity there after you suck out the oil with a straw?

Crack open the earth science book for awhile.

[Loose_Cannon]

Sounds like a plausible premise, but not true.  Oil is not pumped out of "caverns", it is pumped out of porous rock formations.  (Or water is pumped in, forcing oil out)

[f16hoser]

Perhaps, big oil wants to start drilling the big oil fields here in the US? Supposedly, we are sitting on over two Trillion Bbl's of oil and half of it is sweet crude. Google Lindsey Williams and listen to what he has to say. Decide for yourself if you want to believe or not. I personally find it harder everyday to believe our bought-off mainstream media outlets. Other than Lindsey Williams discussion's, I have not validated his claims by other sources. I try to find multiple sources these day's.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/oil-prices-skyrocket-after-williams%E2%80%99-latest-revelations.html

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=Lindsey+Williams+oil+revelations&aq=o&aqi=&aql=&oq=

[Backspin]

I've only listened to a little bit of Lindsay Williams, but he strikes me as an alarmist who is not credible, but who makes a bit of coin selling his materials on the matter.

That said, I do find this particular point reasonable.  From what I understand, there are HUGE reserves under the deep water in the gulf.  Not necessarily as easy to get to as the stuff closer to the surface, but there nonetheless.  And possibly more to be found off of Florida, Alaska, etc, if the political barriers are lowered.

I'm not oil expert, though.  Maybe someone here can provide some numbers.

[Flakmeister]

I will in a bit...have my hands full with other things for the  moment...

[trav7777]

define "huge" reserves.

Every time we hear about a 10Bbbl reserve we hear how it is huge.  In the overall scheme, it is not.

And the SIZE of reserves are irrelevant; what matters is the rate of production of those reserves that can be had.

[RichardP]

More specifically, what matters more - the size of reserves or declining rates of production coupled with increased demand?

[Backspin]

Good question.  I remember reading an article in the WSJ, a few years ago, when the deep water oil in the Gulf of Mexico was first verified.  If memory serves, they had four separate wells, fairly far apart, and based on pressure and flow rate for 30 days, they estimated that the oil down there was equivalent to the rest of the known reserves in the US.  So that discovery essentially doubled the country's known reserves, so the article said.  Of course, the known reserves in the US are not by any means the largest in the world, but it still strikes me as significant.  So based on that, it is my understanding that there is a "huge" amount of oil down there.  But as I also said, I was hoping someone here might be able to provide some more current, more authoritative info.