Guest Post: There Are No Good Outcomes

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform

There Are No Good Outcomes

The political class and their mouthpieces in the corporate controlled
mainstream media are desperately trying to spin the oil price surge as a
temporary inconvenience that will not derail their phony recovery
story. Brent crude closed at $116 per barrel yesterday. West Texas crude
closed at $104 per barrel. Unleaded gas has risen by 22% in the last
month and 60% since September 1, 2010. I’m sure this slight increase
hasn’t impacted Ben Bernanke or Lloyd Blankfein. Their limo drivers just
charge it to their unlimited expense accounts. Joe Sixpack, driving his
15 mpg Dodge RAM pickup, is now forking over an extra $1,200 per year
in gas expenditures, not to mention more for everything impacted by oil
such as food, utilities, and anything transported to their local
Wal-Mart by truck (everything). Luckily, the Federal Reserve and crooked
politicians only care about their comrades in the top 1% elitist
society, for whom oil is an investment, not an expense.  

               UNLEADED GAS 

The “experts” speak as if they know what will happen, even
though they never saw the rebellions coming in Tunisia, Egypt or Libya.
They assure the masses that Libya doesn’t really have an impact on U.S.
oil supply. It’s as if these shills never took Econ 101 in college.
World oil demand is 88 million barrels per day. Oil supply is 88 million
barrels per day. If 1 million barrels of oil supply are taken off-line,
it doesn’t matter that the U.S. doesn’t get their oil from Libya. The
Italians need their oil. Do the talking heads understand that oil is
fungible? The supplier will ship the oil to the highest bidder.
Presto!!! – $116 a barrel oil.

With Friends Like This, Who Needs Enemies

Let’s assess the probability of things getting better in the near,
medium, long term or ever term. Take a gander at the chart below. These
countries account for 29% of the daily world oil supply. Does it strike
you as a list of stable countries with happy populations of employed
young men?  Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iran have already experienced
revolution or are on the verge of revolution. Algeria is dead man
walking. The Saudi royal family is trying to buy off the masses to stay
in power. The revolution genie is out of the bottle. It can’t be put
back. Mix 40% unemployment, with millions of young men, no hope, and
some Muslim fundamentalism and you’ve got yourself an out of control
situation. No amount of public relations spin will create a positive
outcome for the United States. The existing world order of despots,
kings, and military juntas was just fine for Washington DC. They poured
hundreds of billions of “aid”, tanks, helicopters and missiles to these
“freedom fighter” despots who diverted the billions to their Swiss bank
accounts and fell into line with U.S. policy. No matter who takes power
when these revolutions succeed in toppling our puppets, the new regimes
will not be friendlier toward America. And they still have the oil. 

	Proven Oil	Oil
Country	Reserves (bil barrels)	Production Per Day
Saudi Arabia	265	8,400,000
Iran	137	3,700,000
Iraq	115	2,700,000
UAE	98	2,300,000
Kuwait	102	2,300,000
Libya	46	1,600,000
Algeria	12	1,300,000
Qatar	25	820,000
Oman	6	810,000
Egypt	4	742,000
Syria	3	376,000
Yemen	3	298,000

One look at the chart of self reported world oil reserves paints a
picture of woe for the United States. Countries in the tinderbox of the
Middle East and Africa control 65% of the world’s oil reserves. Saudi
Arabia controls 20%, Iran and Iraq control 11% each, Venezuela controls
7%, Russia 5%, and Libya 3%. So, countries that can barely stomach our
existence, hate us, or just despise us, control 57% of the world’s
remaining oil. Sounds like a recipe for lower oil prices in the future.
The two countries on our border are the only dependable suppliers for
the U.S. Canada controls 13% of the world oil reserves, mostly in its
tar sands. Mexico controls just over 1% of the world’s oil reserves, but
supplies 13% of the U.S. daily oil supply.

Drill, Baby, Drill

Now for a reality check on the “Drill Baby Drill” propagandists like
Larry Kudlow and the other dishonest Republican shills. The United
States controls a full 1.58% of the remaining oil reserves in the world.
We have 21.3 billion barrels of reserves versus 264 billion barrels in
Saudi Arabia. We are currently producing 9 million barrels per day. At
that production rate, the U.S. will deplete its proven reserves in the
next 6 to 10 years. New discoveries will not be able to keep up with
depletion of existing wells. The good news just keeps coming. Mexico’s
oil production has been dependent upon one giant oil field since 1976.
The Cantarell oil field produced 2.1 million barrels per day in 2003 at
its peak. It is currently producing 464,000 barrels per day. Peak oil
has arrived in Mexico. By 2015, the country that currently supplies 13%
of our daily oil supply will become a net importer of oil. Drill Baby
Drill. 

Based upon the monthly import data below from the IEA, it would
appear that, to paraphrase Chief Brody in Jaws, we’re going to need more
corn. As the Obama administration operates in denial of these simple
facts, they will continue to push ethanol and Chevy Volts to save us
from dirty oil. We are already diverting 40% of our corn crop to the
ethanol boondoggle. I’m sure that has nothing to do with the 98%
increase in corn prices in the last year. Maybe tax credits for solar
panels on SUVs and rubber band propeller cars will save the day.

We know for a fact that Mexico’s 1.2 million barrels per day will
evaporate in the next few years. But, at least we have that solid
dependable 2.7 million barrels per day (30% of our daily imports) from
those stable bastions of democracy Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, Angola, and
Algeria. Makes you want to go out and buy a Hummer. The storyline being
sold to the American people is that there is no need to worry. Saudi
Arabia will step to the plate and make up for any shortfalls throughout
the world. Just one problem. Saudi Arabia is lying about their reserves
and their ability to increase production. They’d fit in very well in
Congress and on Wall Street.

Crude Oil Imports (Top 15 Countries) (Thousand Barrels per Day)
Country	Dec-10	Nov-10	YTD 2010	Dec-09	YTD 2009
CANADA	2,064	1,975	1,972	2,104	1,943
MEXICO	1,223	1,229	1,140	1,063	1,092
SAUDI ARABIA	1,076	1,119	1,080	870	980
NIGERIA	1,024	806	986	1,020	776
VENEZUELA	825	884	912	772	951
IRAQ	336	340	414	325	449
ANGOLA	307	263	380	266	448
BRAZIL	271	188	254	181	295
ALGERIA	262	379	325	336	281
COLOMBIA	220	489	338	179	251
ECUADOR	192	188	195	86	181
RUSSIA	158	85	252	168	230
KUWAIT	125	170	195	160	180
UNITED KINGDOM	124	80	120	67	103
ARGENTINA	85	35	29	33	53

Lies, Obfuscation, Misinformation & Denial

The late Matt Simmons made the strong case In his book Twilight in the Desert that
Saudi Arabia has been lying about their reserves for years. Documents
released by Wikileaks give support to this contention. Cables from the
U.S. Embassy in Riyadh , released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take
seriously a warning from senior Saudi government oil executive Sadad
al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil
monopoly Aramco, that the kingdom’s crude oil reserves may have been
overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.
The UK Guardian reported:

According to the cables, which date
between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m
barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 –
global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch
point is known as “peak oil”.

Husseini said that at that point Aramco
would not be able to stop the rise of global oil prices because the
Saudi energy industry had overstated its recoverable reserves to spur
foreign investment. He argued that Aramco had badly underestimated the
time needed to bring new oil on tap.

One cable said: “According to
al-Husseini, the crux of the issue is twofold. First, it is possible
that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described, and the
timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramco and energy
optimists would like to portray.”

The US consul then told Washington:
“While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he
is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand
that his predictions be thoughtfully considered.”

A fourth cable, in October 2009,
claimed that escalating electricity demand by Saudi Arabia may further
constrain Saudi oil exports. “Demand [for electricity] is expected to
grow 10% a year over the next decade as a result of population and
economic growth. As a result it will need to double its generation
capacity to 68,000MW in 2018,” it said.

It also reported major project delays
and accidents as “evidence that the Saudi Aramco is having to run harder
to stay in place – to replace the decline in existing production.”
While fears of premature “peak oil” and Saudi production problems had
been expressed before, no US official has come close to saying this in
public.

The overstatement of reserves by Saudi
Arabia and most of the OPEC countries should be abundantly clear to
anyone with a smattering of critical thinking skills. This eliminates
just about everyone on CNBC or Fox News. Essentially, the self reported,
unaudited declared oil reserves from OPEC members are a fraud.
Production quotas for each member of OPEC are dependent upon their oil
reserve amount. When this was instituted in the early 1980s, shockingly
OPEC countries miraculously added nearly 300 billion barrels to proven
reserves in a six year period with NO NEW DISCOVERIES of oil. The chart
below shows the unexplained jumps in reserves in red. Do you honestly
believe any self reported number from Iran or Venezuela? Dr. Ali Samsam
Bakhtiari, a former senior expert of the National Iranian Oil Company,
has estimated that Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates have overstated reserves by a combined 320–390 billion barrels
and has said, “As for Iran, the usually accepted official 132 billion
barrels is almost one hundred billion over any realistic estimate.”

Using some common sense, someone might ask,
“How could Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves remain above 260 million for the
last 22 years despite pumping over 60 billion barrels during this time
frame, and not making any major new discoveries?” Maybe their
statisticians did their training at Goldman Sachs or the Federal
Reserve. The monster Saudi oil fields are over 40 years old. They will
deplete. Oil is finite. They will not refill abiotically like some
crackpots contend. Saudi Arabia’s production peaked in 2005 and it has
been unable to reach that level since. The spin sheiks in Riyadh and
spin doctors in Washington DC cannot spin oil out of sand. Peak oil is
about to choke the American way of life.    

Declared reserves of major Opec Producers (billion of barrels)
BP Statistical Review – June 2009
Year	Iran	Iraq	Kuwait	Saudi Arabia	UAE	Venezuela	Libya	Nigeria
1980	58.3	30.0	67.9	168.0	30.4	19.5	20.3	16.7
1981	57.0	32.0	67.7	167.9	32.2	19.9	22.6	16.5
1982	56.1	59.0	67.2	165.5	32.4	24.9	22.2	16.8
1983	55.3	65.0	67.0	168.8	32.3	25.9	21.8	16.6
1984	58.9	65.0	92.7	171.7	32.5	28.0	21.4	16.7
1985	59.0	65.0	92.5	171.5	33.0	54.5	21.3	16.6
1986	92.9	72.0	94.5	169.7	97.2	55.5	22.8	16.1
1987	92.9	100.0	94.5	169.6	98.1	58.1	22.8	16.0
1988	92.9	100.0	94.5	255.0	98.1	58.5	22.8	16.0
1989	92.9	100.0	97.1	260.1	98.1	59.0	22.8	16.0
1990	92.9	100.0	97.0	260.3	98.1	60.1	22.8	17.1
1991	92.9	100.0	96.5	260.9	98.1	62.6	22.8	20.0
1992	92.9	100.0	96.5	261.2	98.1	63.3	22.8	21.0
1993	92.9	100.0	96.5	261.4	98.1	64.4	22.8	21.0
1994	94.3	100.0	96.5	261.4	98.1	64.9	22.8	21.0
1995	93.7	100.0	96.5	261.5	98.1	66.3	29.5	20.8
1996	92.6	112.0	96.5	261.4	97.8	72.7	29.5	20.8
1997	92.6	112.5	96.5	261.5	97.8	74.9	29.5	20.8
1998	93.7	112.5	96.5	261.5	97.8	76.1	29.5	22.5
1999	93.1	112.5	96.5	262.8	97.8	76.8	29.5	29.0
2000	99.5	112.5	96.5	262.8	97.8	76.8	36.0	29.0
2001	99.1	115.0	96.5	262.7	97.8	77.7	36.0	31.5
2002	130.7	115.0	96.5	262.8	97.8	77.3	36.0	34.3
2003	133.3	115.0	99.0	262.7	97.8	77.2	39.1	35.3
2004	132.7	115.0	101.5	264.3	97.8	79.7	39.1	35.9
2005	137.5	115.0	101.5	264.2	97.8	80.0	41.5	36.2
2006	138.4	115.0	101.5	264.3	97.8	87.3	41.5	36.2
2007	138.2	115.0	101.5	264.2	97.8	99.4	43.7	36.2
2008	137.6	115.0	101.5	264.1	97.8	99.4	43.7	36.2

The denial, accusations and misinformation have already begun.
Congressional hearings will be called to blame Big Oil and the dreaded
speculators. Americans always need a bogeyman to blame for their
mindless decisions and willingness to be led to slaughter by corrupt
politicians. Big oil companies do benefit from higher oil prices. Big
oil companies spend millions buying off Congressmen. Big oil
companies cut corners, ignore safety procedures, and seek profits by any
means possible. But, they do not control the oil. Nations control the
oil. Many of these nations are led by lying, corrupt, evil despots. That
is a fact. Blustering moronic Congressmen going after oil executives
and phantom speculators is just a sideshow. It will divert the
non-thinking masses from the truth that our leaders haven’t allowed a
refinery or nuclear power plant to be built since 1977. These leaders
have promoted and subsidized corn based ethanol that requires more
energy to produce than it creates and has driven the cost of our food
sky high. We are more dependent on foreign oil than any time in our
history.

The real speculators are the Americans who clog our highways every
morning driving monster SUVs, turbocharged sports cars, gas guzzling
minivans, and pickup trucks that make them feel like salt of the earth
tough guys despite living in their 6,000 square foot energy sucking
McMansions in suburban tracts 30 miles from their jobs, if they have
one. The ignorance of the average American car buyer knows no bounds.
The recent bounce back in auto sales was led by SUVs and pickups. The
green clean cars are nothing but hype and bullshit. GM expects to sell
about 10,000 Volts this year, and Nissan expects to sell about 25,000
Leafs in the United States, a piss in the ocean compared with the
millions of sport wagons and SUVs purchased by Americans annually.
Americans have the attention span of a gnat and are already dazed and
confused by the surge in gas prices to $3.50 per gallon.

When oil prices spiked to $147 barrel in 2008, Americans were
spending $467 billion per year for fuel. By early 2009, the collapse in
energy prices due to the worldwide recession reduced the annual
expenditure to $265 billion, freeing up over $200 billion for consumers
to spend on other items, pay down debt, or save. Expenditures for fuel
had already surged back to $400 billion before the recent spike in oil
prices. Next stop $500 billion. That should do wonders for the faux
economic recovery that has been touted by Obama and the MSM for the last
year. The years of denial, lies, indecision, bad decisions, and inertia
have left the country vulnerable and at the mercy of countries in far
off lands that despise our way of life.

There are no good outcomes, only bad, really bad, and catastrophic.
Take your pick. Could gas prices drop below $3.00 per gallon if the
world sinks back into recession? Yes. But it would only be momentary.
The easy to access supply is dwindling. The medium and long term
direction of gas at the pump is up. There is nothing that can be done in
the next five years to prevent significantly higher oil prices. A full
court press of realistic ideas like converting our truck fleets to
natural gas, a major effort to build nuclear power plants, more
drilling, greater use of wind, geothermal, and solar would take at least
a decade to have an impact. There is no consensus or resolve to
undertake such an effort. Therefore, Americans will suffer the
consequences. Be a good American and take advantage of GM’s no interest
for 7 years deal on their biggest baddest SUVs and buy two. What could
go wrong?

Comments

[Seer]

Keep in mind that just because someting is found it doesn't mean that it CAN be extracted.  Not sure if this is the same "discovery," but I seem to recall discussions about the depth being so great that they'd have to come up with special metals to withstand the temperature extremes: cold at depth and heat from drilling.  As we saw with BP's Gulf disaster, the elements are harsh, and regardless of what technology exists, humans are involved (esp shareholders), all adding up to one big crap shoot.  I doubt that oil companies prefer today's locations over the Pennsylvania days of early discovery.

[Flakmeister]

 BSpin, see my comment on LW above... He is a huckster as far I am concerned.

You may be refering to the Jack field, nice field, no game changer though. If you are interested

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/9/8/11274/83638

For a general view of the GOM

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5081

[Backspin]

Thanks for the info, Flak.  Good reads.  Thanks.

[Money Squid]

I have heard Lindsy Williams and I think the guy is a fake, he states nothing that I have not read in a book, magazine, article or on TMZ. There will always be reserves just not at the quality and quantity required to "fuel" an ever expanding economy. As the less expensive, abundant oil supply begins to drop, and it is dropping now, there will be significantly higher prices (spikes followed by lows) as the western economies try to adjust. But, with peak oil, you get peak carbon output, therefore no need for a global tax on carbon scheme. Carbon output will fall with oil consuption - its self regualting.

[Snake]

I believe. I beelieve.  Imen.

[echomikealpha]

time to buy a horse & buggy

[Yardfarmer]

how about a couple of mules and a plow.

[captain_menace]

Why not a rickshaw?

Or better yet, you can open up a franchise selling rickshaws as a combo business opportunity / weight-loss program.  Win-win!

[Seer]

Food, shelter and water.  Hm... not seeing "transportation" there...

[High Plains Drifter]

Degrees of elevation. Numbnutts rebel fighter makes adjustments to recoiless rifle. Gads I hope he doesn't fire that thing, in that position. Ha ha ha

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/06/world/africa/06libya.html?_r=2&partner...

I think some of these guys are working for Blackwater now. But this is type of man, is what Kadaffi needs. His conscript army sucks and are about as worthless as tits on a bore hog. Let us think back when his pitiful crew got their asses handed to them when they messed with Chad. You know the boy has the money. So why not go for broke. Heck what does he have to lose?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYE1s7lDBYc

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chadian%E2%80%93Libyan_conflict

[Hulk]

Excellent article Jim. For SA to maintain flat production, an exponential increase in the number of wells has been required. As Cantarell has demonstrated, fall off in production of injected wells is a waterfall event. When Ghawar experiences this event, the boondoogle represented by corn and switchgrass ethanol will be fully revealed. Millions will die. Nature does not reward stupidity...

[captain_menace]

"Millions will die"

I think it was established earlier in the thread that exactly 5 billion will die.  No more, no less. Five billion shalt be the number that...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOrgLj9lOwk

[Fernley Girl]

JQ: You painted Americans with a very broad brush.  My mid-size SUV gets 21 mpg.  I typically purchase less than 10 gallons of gas per month for it.  I have 49,844 miles on the SUV, and it's 8 1/2 years old.  (I've always kept my vehicles about 10 years each).  A round-trip drive to an urban area where I can stock up on supplies is just over 80 miles for me.  I make that trip once every 5 or 6 weeks.  The interior of my SUV is stuffed full.  If I buy one of those little leafy-volty thingys you want me to buy I'd have to make that trip 3 or 4 times as often as I do now, because I couldn't fit everything in one of those little cars.  If I amortize the cost of a new vehicle, add in the additional cost of more trips (and the rise in the cost of my insurance for a new vehicle and the higher mileage usage, AND the cost of my time), well, it's just not in my best financial interests.  And, those little leafy-volty thingys don't work too well when I need to hook a trailer up to the hitch to haul equipment, either.  You need to understand that there are reasons why some of us buy what we do;  it's called UTILITY.  

Peak oil is theoretical, not factual.  Peak oil assumes no oil fields will ever be found in the future.

JQ: Not everyone on this planet lives the life you do, has the same needs you do, or wants the same things you do.  In my case I think my frugality trumps your save-the-world-buy-a-volt meme.  Might I suggest you go visit a small working family farm sometime?  Bring your Leaf/Volt, and see how useful it is in that family's real world.  And when your little car gets stuck in the ruts in the fields, the farmer's diesel-fueled tractor will pull you out of the muck you've gotten yourself into.  And, then they'll probably offer you some food.

[Money Squid]

Peak oil is fact. It is important to understand the definition of "peak oil" so you do not get hoodwinked or misdirected by naysayers. Read the initial work by M. King Hubbert and I think you will change your mind.

[JR]

Excellent post.

Interesting isn’t it that  one of the big investors in Coda Automotive, the Sino-U.S. car maker that recently brought a Chinese-American electric car to market in the U.S., is none other than former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson - former Goldman Sachs CEO - and and John Bryson, a leading figure in alternative energy. NYTimes columnist Tom Friedman has lauded Coda.

Greentechmedia reported in November: “China's government and Chinese banks, meanwhile, have agreed to financially support Lio Energy Systems, the battery company that will supply the battery packs for Coda's Sedan….The sedan… will cost $45,000 before incentives…” and that “Federal and state incentives could bring the price down to $32,500.”

These people are out of control.

[Kayman]

Greetings JR

Best ROI is to buy a politician.

[Jim Quinn]

Fernley Girl

The article wasn't written about you. Thanks for your life story. It adds much to the discussion of whether oil prices will rise in the future.

You should let people think you are ignorant about peak oil rather than post on a website and remove all doubt.

[Kayman]

Fernley Girl

Thanks for the personal tale.

There will never be PEAK BULLSHIT. Peak Oil, the verdict is out.

I can't tell if Jim Quinn is sincere or if he is an Oil Company Shill.

[Jim Quinn]

Kayman

I can't tell if you are a moron or an idiot. It's a toss-up.

[JR]

So which is it, are you a shill or not?

[Jim Quinn]

I'm someone who uses his real name and makes an argument backed up by facts and I'm not selling shit. Some people like to know the truth. Ideologues like yourself would rather troll websites and take shots at people who are trying to get the truth out there.

Clear enough dickhead?

[slewie the pi-rat]

chrystal

[Flakmeister]

 Kayman, you keep running away asshole. Let's go manno-manno, eh?

You still have not even come close to responding to my posts earlier. So put out, or STFU.

[Diogenes]

Tip: You could swing the same deal with a 52MPG VW Jetta Diesel and a trailer. I am not mocking you, I am trying to pass on a suggestion to one of the few people savvy enough to get it.

Years ago for my business, I switched from a V8 pickup truck to a minvan. The minivan will do 90% of what the pickup will do, at lower cost, more comfort, and better safety. For the other 10% the minivan won't do I hitch up a trailer.

Lately I have been shopping for a cheap Jetta. They will run on furnace oil which costs half as much as diesel fuel but don't tell the tax collector.

[JimS]

Amen to that Diogenes! I have a 09 Jetta TDI, with a hitch. Driving at 55mph, with the right wind direction, I get that type of MPG. The hitch allows me to haul my small 16' MirroCraft boat w/ a 25hp Merc tiller. Towing the boat, I can get 26 to 34mpg. It's a great little car. I only hope that T. Boone Pickens gets his way on converting semi-trucks to LGP. That will drive diesel down to where it should be (about a $1 less than gasoline or much lower). What I would like to see is the US laws changed to allow small diesel-powered pick-up trucks to be sold in the USA. A 2.0 to 3.0 liter diesel, in a smaller pick-up, could easily get 30-35mpg, and have all the power needed to pull any sized boat 18' or under.

[sethstorm]

Years ago for my business, I switched from a V8 pickup truck to a minvan

Not valid for any of the stuff made in Europe.  Perhaps if you can still find a truck-body Astro or such, it is already 90% truck.

[Fernley Girl]

Not enough room to fit fence posts, welded wire fence, or to tow a utility trailer for big stuff.  Had a VW TDI Beetle when I lived in a suburban area and worked for someone other than myself....best damn commuter car ever made. Life is different now, moving toward being completly off the grid and mostly self-sustainable....I can't grow a new HD when my computer crashes!  ;)

[JimS]

Okay, I'll buy your revised story, and I apologize. The Jetta TDI will still work, as I can haul 8' 2x4's in my Jetta, with the backseat down. I haul all my fishing rods in my car as well, and some are 8 1/2'. The TDI will get you far better mileage. Just trying to help.

[Seer]

I'm trying to get by without getting a truck.  Batching things up and renting one is about the only thing that I can think of for avoiding the expense of trying to maintain multiple vehicles: still have to travel a bit, and I'm not willing to give up my 20 year-old econo car.

It's hard seeing city folks driving around in fancy trucks.  A friend of mine bought a Hemi truck, as he never got over his youth, and I remarked that racing trucks were like women's basketball (no offense to women, but men's basketball is on a whole nother level), he didn't appreciate that.  But, my point is valid, vehicles are tools, and we need to get back to viewing and using them as such.  If my farm can justify owning (or leasing) a truck then I'll get one.

[JimS]

Besides being ignorant, you are math dumb, as well. The math in your story doesn't add up, as you are using at least 23 gallons a month, and that's assuming you really get 21 mpg. You may get that type of mpg on the highway, but there no-way-in-hell you are getting that in-town driving with your small SUV.

[Fernley Girl]

I moved from an suburban to a rural area 3 1/3 years ago & most of the mileage on my vehicle occured prior to the move.  10 gallons per month, max.  One eighty mile round trip on the interstate per month @ 21 mpg= roughly 4 gallons.  The rest is local, in very small town...less than two miles to the grocery store, bank & everything else.  I work for myself and do not commute. The onboard computer in my SUV keeps track of the mileage. Been consistant @ 21 mpg since I moved. 

[captain_menace]

"Peak oil assumes no oil fields will ever be found in the future."

Fail.  Peak oil assumes that fields discovered in the future will be more expensive to develop.

I think this was my favorite part of your post: "when I need"

Put "need" in a bottle.  It's fun to look at.

[DavidPierre]

Fernley Girl:

Meet the real SmokeyQuinn.

#780454

Oh Yes!...Some basic research.

Let's do some basic research on SmokeyQuinn.

..............................................................

SMOKEYQUINN is up to his usual obscene replies ... cut and paste... plagiarism...

Go back using these links and read SmokeyQuinn's history.

See:
#577149

#577421

Some classic racist shit SmokeyQuinn runs on his blog.

#495628

...................................................................................

#577815
Jason Rines, Smokey Quinn's former webmaster...

"Smokey and Jim are the same people, yes. I mapped both the I.P.'s back to his office at Wharton."

[Hulk]

DP, nobody fucking cares...

[DavidPierre]

Smokey cares!

You care ... seem to enjoy munching on his dingleberries.

[Seer]

Regarding your use/selection of vehicles, yes, it all comes down to having the right tool for the job (and more and more it won't be about pleasure).

"Peak oil is theoretical, not factual.  Peak oil assumes no oil fields will ever be found in the future."

Not at all.  I've followed "Peak Oil" for years and I've NEVER heard anyone who is anyone state that PO means that no more oil would be found.

If you agree that this is a finite planet (that we're not somehow connected via some worm-hole that could feed us oil from elsewhere), then by default that means physical limits on everything (except incoming solar radiation and assorted star dust).  PO is not a "theory," it's an event, one that WILL occur.  PO is about peak production, which means a cap of consumed energy.  Aside from the logical fact that PO can be a real state, many have provided data supporting HOW and when it would occur: M.L. King Hubert being prominent.  As these people pointed out, individual wells have a production curve, and with each being a data set in the larger world data set it therefore stands to reason that the larger set is dependent upon the clearly exhaustable sub sets.

As I've noted in the past, the US military is the one entity to keep an eye on vis a vis energy.  Currently it's the single largest consumer of oil.  Tricky is that they have to be pushing for renergy replacements while not appearing to be desperate (displaying weaknesses).  There's a good reason why Iraqi oil fields were siezed BEFORE the announced invasion.  Track down and read the Joint Operations Environment (JOE) report for 2010 to get a sense of how real peak oil is...

[JR]

“The denial, accusations and misinformation have already begun. Congressional hearings will be called to blame Big Oil and the dreaded speculators. Americans always need a bogeyman to blame for their mindless decisions and willingness to be led to slaughter by corrupt politicians.” Jim Quinn

Dear Jim bring-on-the-inheritance-tax Quinn:

Lots of interesting data but can we stop with the overplay of the let’s-all-conserve-energy diversion, with the Americans with their automobiles are the problem, with the oil producing nations headed by our enemies are the problem, and with the speculators are only scapegoats mantra? Enough! Speculators, the beneficiaries of ZIRP free money, were profiting from the situation before there was any alleged shortage.

The Federal Reserve System, of course, with its hand on the printing press, is the problem.  The stock market is not awash in profit, it is awash in taxpayer money in the hands of speculators, and it is awash with the lie of recovery.

The other day I heard a market analyst on CNBC say we can handle $120 crude; it’s that $140 crude that will give us problems.  This crude remark is the symbol of our banker masters and oil companies and their puppet strings to politicians, media and economists - and their lies about oil, energy, inflation and all the rest.

It’s not corrupt politicians, it is 100% purchased politicians who are the problem; their hands are tied when it comes to the Federal Reserve System.  And Americans, continually trying to get by with mounting inflation (you know, those hot rodders trying to get to work),  have absolutely nothing to say about who controls energy policy in this country.  To say that they can “choose” (witnessing the last few election cycles) is a laughable joke. 

Give us sound money, supply and demand, oil and energy, and we can get the hedgers and the speculators and the owners of the Fed off our backs and we can rebuild America.

It’s the speculators who get in between the producers and the users who are driving up prices.  Saudi Arabia said it would make up the difference, Libyan production, less than 2% of the world market, is less than 50% affected, primarily because of the panic of foreign laborers.

It has to be speculation that drove the pump price for regular to $4.09 yesterday at a station near me in Coastal California, and $2.40 for two large Russet Burbank potatoes at the supermarket.

[AnAnonymous]

Give us sound money, supply and demand, oil and energy, and we can get the hedgers and the speculators and the owners of the Fed off our backs and we can rebuild America.

It’s the speculators who get in between the producers and the users who are driving up prices. 

Only one thing is known to effect speculation: mass  production. And it does not revoke speculation: it simply dilutes speculation.

[JR]

Financial speculators, oil speculators,  currency speculators, sugar speculators, corn speculators…

Oh, yes. Speculation, i.e., allowed trade in the U.S. in futures markets not overseen by U.S. regulators and free to “dominate these markets by huge positions taken within them, with lack of oversight,” is just a matter of production sans manipulation. Uh huh.

Q: “Who are these speculators?”

According to Michael Greenberger, who directed trading and markets for the CFTC from 1997 to 1999:

“Many say that Goldman Sachs & Co. and Morgan Stanley are primary traders on the principal market outside of direct U.S. supervision, the Intercontinental Exchange, otherwise known as ICE. The whole point here is that we need transparency through a thorough investigation to determine precisely what is happening on the Intercontinental Exchange, including who key traders are and the positions they are taking in these markets. That transparency is provided regularly for those exchanges regulated directly by the (futures trading commission).”

When asked in mid-2008 “How much of today’s record oil price is attributable to speculation?” Greenberger replied:

“There are many estimates being made by observers of these markets, economists and industrial energy consumers suggesting that the price of a barrel of crude oil could be anywhere from 25 percent to 100 percent in excess of what market fundamentals would dictate. For example, (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) has recently said that a barrel of crude should not be in excess of $70, and it has opened its own investigation into excessive speculation in these markets to find out what interests are causing the price to be almost double that.”

Q: What about supply-and-demand fundamentals? Aren’t they behind oil’s rising price to some degree?”

Greenberger: ”There can be no doubt that there is a supply-and-demand problem at work here. But many believe, including me, that there's a speculative premium that goes beyond what supply-and-demand factors dictate. And that's what could be drained with aggressive United States regulation.”

http://www.star-telegram.com/2008/06/17/706612/are-oil-speculators-driving-up.html

[velobabe]

HI  JR, long time no posty to your comments. potatoes are really a wonderful gift to man. i make twice baked potatoes and i am going to try and make scalloped potatoes right after i post this. i love vodka too. i like vodka from grain, but it is expensive. bye

[JR]

Gotta love ya, velobabe. Don’t say “bye.”  Say “yippee!”  I’m dropping by for scalloped and “grain” ...  in a few minutes.

[GreenSideUp]

++++++++

[Kayman]

Thanks JR

When Volcker raised the Fed rate to 20% and the Prime rate was 21% oil crashed below $10/bbl.

This current Peak Oil Postulation is predicated solely on Supply considerations.

The Bernank whoring for his Bankster pimps is the SOLE cause of commodity inflation including oil.

I, for one, am not brave enough to pronounce specific outcomes.

[JR]

Exactly, Kayman.

The oil speculators are using the revolutions in the Middle East to manipulate world oil prices even higher and make billions—as they do along with every oil production incident such as oil refinery fires, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico…

It was the U.S. Congress that allowed the banksters and banker-puppet despots to hold Americans hostage over basic necessities such as oil.

As to “PEAK BULLSHIT,” the irony in this quote from the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism about says it all: “A recent study by experts from Goldman Sachs, the investment bank, identified as the number one threat to the global economy ‘raw material shortages and the related high price of oil.’ The number two threat identified by this study was ‘international terrorism.’”

Just at lunch today a news item quotes a British official warning gasoline prices could go to $12 a gallon if “terrorists” attack oil facilities.

Taking the Goldman analysis and the political class’ translation, you can’t drive speculation higher than this.

[RichardP]

Forget charged words like peak oil.  Use the Theory of Relativity.  Will problems ensue if increased production is less than increased demand?

[captain_menace]

It's amusing when a point on a production curve is considered "charged".  Not disagreeing, just babbling to myself...

When max energy production capability < current energy demand, I do believe problems will ensue.  Until a cheap substitute becomes available (head in sand with fingers crossed).

[RichardP]

Charged words are those that generate intense emotions in the folks who hear them.  From what I've seen here, Peak Oil fits that definition for some.  Framing the issue instead in terms of increased production < increased demand = problems might help some admit that all will not be well soon without appropriate change.

[Jim Quinn]

JR sees speculators behind every bush. Are they behind the bush with those terrorists?

Sound money doesn't produce more oil. Stay focused on the issue rather than spinning your ideological bullshit.

[JR]

The changes in the Middle East over the last few weeks have absolutely nothing to do with terrorists.  Instead, they are revolutionary movements against banker puppets in the ME.  I disagree with your statement that nation’s sell oil; banker puppets sell oil deals. 

It is Goldman Sachs and the neocons that see terrorists behind every bush, a cover-up to push war propaganda and cheat countries around the globe out of trillions of dollars.

There have been reactions from violent groups in the ME reacting to U.S./Israel economic hit men taking domination of their countries and the resources of their countries.  Egyptians making $2 a day facing starvation engineered by billionaires facilitated by puppet Mubarak who smoothed the path for the major oil states and Bernanke the path on speculation of commodities - particularly food, are seeking freedom. 

I am getting sick of the word terrorism and the war on terror which has been obfuscation for banker confiscation of natural resources of sovereign nations who, when they resist, are met with helicopter gunships. It is the U.S. that is looking at all options regarding Gadhafi’s regime from “the military side.”

If my recognition of the role of Fed fiat money in the subjugation of citizens in these oil rich countries - and in the United States - contains the words of an ideologue, then I wear the title proudly.

By the way, are you an opponent of sound money?

[Jim Quinn]

I voted for Ron Paul.

[velobabe]

hello mr Quinn, i think i have the solution. it seems so simple.

the world needs to get ride of credit cards. only be allowed to use cash. in other words, get rid of anything plastic. plastic is worst then/than paper. it truly is. i mean, let's rate plastic to paper. ok so let's put the world just using the current seas. i bet things would shape up real soon. CASH only. then we have time to figure out the next payment system. cash only would get rid of the FED and the To Big To Fail.

[velobabe]

hello mr Quinn, i think i have the solution. it seems so simple.

the world needs to get ride of credit cards. only be allowed to use cash. in other words, get rid of anything plastic. plastic is worst then/than paper. it truly is. i mean, let's rate plastic to paper. ok so let's put the world just using the current seas. i bet things would shape up real soon. CASH only. then we have time to figure out the next payment system. cash only would get rid of the FED and the To Big To Fail.

honest, we need to explore a campaign, cash only or silver or gold coins. no plastic. truly, this future of plastic needs needs to stop. that is our first step to freedom, just say no to plastic.

[Seer]

So, happy motoring into eternity? Yea!  Skittles for everyone!

That there are people taking advantage on the way down should't be a surprise, but that shouldn't distract from the reality of us being on the way down.  The real villans and speculators are staring back at you in the mirror...

[Abitdodgie]

tHE WORLD IS NOT RUNNING OUT OF OIL BY THE FIRST CHART ABOVE SAYS AT THE CURRENT RATE OF USE IT WILL LAST FOR ANOTHER 62 YEARS (sorry cap lock was on ) What is changing is the cost of getting that oil , There is lots of oil you are just going to have to pay for it, The American Government all ready uses Ion propulsion systems (B2 bomber)and electromagnetic generators / engine, but whilst there is oil they will keep control and keep charging you . So it follows the more prices go up the more chance that they will loose control.

[Money Squid]

"Ion propulsion systems (B2 bomber)..." where did you get this? There is no ion engine that can push the aircraft as fat and heavey throught the atmosphere. Empty space....maybe, but not in the atmosphere.

[Hulk]

Ion powered B2 maiden flight video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4e5Nd9X1-l8

[trav7777]

haven't these been upgraded with cyberdyne CPUs, after which they fly with a perfect operational record?

[Calmyourself]

Freaked me out for a second there, till I clicked on the vid.. Ion powered yeah..  Spacecraft with 1/100th a gram of thrust for for months sure, aircraft ha..

[Money Squid]

Hulk, there is no way you can watch that vid and even for one second think that the B2 as ion drive. You can hear the whine of the jet engines. Ion drive is possible for space craft, small experimental space craft, but can not even come close to pushing a POS Cesna stripped to the bone through the atmosphere.  Look up ion drive http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable_Specific_Impulse_Magnetoplasma_Rocket and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVsgSjm_vXg&feature=related

[Hulk]

/sarc

[Money Squid]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXCbAtkgNMw

[rich_wicks]

"What is changing is the cost of getting that oil"

Cost of mining oil is directly related to energy required to recover the oil.  It's called Energy Return on Investment, or EROI.  When you need to invest 1 unit of energy to extract 1 unit of energy, it's no longer worthwhile to extract the resource, at least for energy purposes.

This is why tar sands will never be viable for turning to gasoline, plastics maybe, but not energy.

[Flakmeister]

 No, it is currently viable, EROEI is about 3-5 depending on the details of the bitumen deposit (depth, etc..). Is is sustainable or scalable to meet future needs, no, it isn't.

[Seer]

Two-dimensional thinking, again!

All is meaningless unless one specifies the rate of growth (in extraction)!  Will that 62 years of oil last 62 years if we double the world's population and everyone runs around driving Hummers?

[Mediocritas]

Good to see overstated reserves being mentioned. It's true. The OPEC quota system creates a moral hazard to good estimates. In this case, all they did was redefine the relative meanings of proved, provable and probable reserves.

Might be nicer if Jim didn't just copy and paste from wikipedia though: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

[avonaltendorf]

On SEC redefinition of "proved" and "possible" reserves:

The Tragedy of 21 Darts

[Rusty Shorts]

Wow, thanks for that link, read it twice.

[cosmictrainwreck]

fuckin' lawyers. change the definitions to benefit the elite & etc. ad nauseum. we're always down on the banksters - what about their pimps, the lawyers? well, truly, I cannot discern who's pimpin' who, but sho' 'nuff plenty of whorin' & pimpin' to go around. fuckin' lawyers

[Seer]

When wealth is paper, and our leading contributor to GDP creates no real physical product, well... this shouldn't be a surprise.  Ah, The American Dream!  Have everything and do nothing to get it!

[PulauHantu29]

Very long, detailed, complete and accurate article. Thank you.

There seems to be a serious gap between the top 2% on Wall Street whose slaves....ooops, I mean dirvers fill their tanks, and the other 98% who have to pump gas for themselves.

Reminds me of the 1970s all over again---lines at the pump, shootouts at the pump between taxi drivers competing to get their fares to the airport on time, etc.

The Nixon "price controls" will soon be enacted again.

[sethstorm]

Hopefully this time, we don't have the new oil/old oil issue and that meaningful things can be done to suppliers to keep oil flowing.

[jmc8888]

So again, once people realize that there is no good outcome.

Fix it in 48 hours with a fucking bank holiday Glass-Steagall style.

Any time we can push it through, approximately 48 hours later (give or take), the ship is righted.

Is it better for that to start NOW, or LATER. 

It does end well, once we SWITCH out.  Otherwise as everyone here knows, hyperinflationary crash ahead.

So the end WILL be good, because we'll finally be rid of monetarism, or die.  I think humans will choose to live without monetarism, rather than die with it.

THEN we can address energy.  No way it can be done before the end of monetarism. (hint Nuclear until fusion)[over 10,000 plants in U.S. alone...if there were only enough hands without jobs to do it...oh wait there it]

Glass-Steagall

[StarvingLion]

10,000 reactors owned by the oligarchy.  Your "solution" is centralized energy control. only cheap material batteries and tapping the freebies called wind and solar offer the middle class any hope. 

[Calmyourself]

Hell yeah my leftist union loving bro... printed out a bunch of pages that said "Glass-Steagall" on them and stuffed in my SUV tank, pulling my 4 snowmobiles to Colorado while I type this on my Ijunk..

[Caviar Emptor]

Oil production growth hasn't kept up with demand growth since 1970, the year US production peaked. Hence the moving average spot price has advanced almost continuously. 

And the main issue isn't "do we have enough to keep the lights on", it's "do we have enough to grow further". Capitalist economies have to keep growing to survive or else face huge structural unemployment and their political and social consequences. 

So in 2011 the question is: with Asian and South American economies wanting mega-growth, at the same time as the US and Europe needing to grow out of their debt, where does that suggest oil and energy prices will go? 

[Kayman]

Cav Emp

We have a plan. We are moving to the oil-less economy, by growing the banking sector.

As the banking sector grows, through the enhanced Government Welfare to Goldman Program, there will be less and less employment required in the rest of the economy, thereby reducing demand for things like oil.

Problem Solved.

[Caviar Emptor]

Lol. It's brilliant

[Caviar Emptor]

Duplicate

[10kby2k]

We have the internet (tele commuting) and streaming video....next comes virtual reality with virtual vacations and design your own sex kitten.  Who needs to leave home? 

[bob_dabolina]

It's also interesting that oil is found in wells if it truly is biotic. Wouldn't that mean that living organisms all decided to crawl into the same hole before they died?

Seeing as there is a great deal of benefit experienced by the high price of oil by the few who control it I found enough evidence to at least remain skeptical of the peak oil theory.

[RichardP]

What do you call it when daily demand for oil exceeds the daily production of oil?  What do published statistics say?  Has that condition occurred yet?  If not, is it predicted to occur?  If yes, when?  Is the growth in China and India affecting the answers to these questions at all?

[Money Squid]

All of the super giant and giant fields have been found, tapted and vacuumed out. They still produce but at much lower volumes, or in the case of Ghawar, its not clear what is going on cause the Saudi's are so secretive. Peak oil is inevitable. Even if peak oil occurred in say 2000 the western economies could still grow, provided many countries did with out additional supply, or even had their supply cut. I argue that the western countries support dictatorships in Saudi Arabi, Iraq, Libya and other countires because the dictators will agree to choke off their own people to export the oil needed in west and the west in turn helps the dictators get rich by banking their fortunes for them. Some people claim "wow, we just discovered a field with 500 million barrels of oil!" But, how much of that oil is recoverable, how much will it cost to bring that field on line, how long will it take? And, the world wide daily oil thirst is about 85 million barrels per day and growing. So, if every drop of the 500 million barrel field could be pumped out (which it can not) it could supply the world for only 6 DAYS! 

Houston, we have a problem!

[cosmictrainwreck]

oh, now you've done it! you ruined my whole evening with that gem. shit.

[Flakmeister]

Well, if you are really skeptical, hang out at the oildrum, ask a few questions. You will learn alot very fast...

Oil is made in layers... think of a lake bed, 10 millions years of algae, marine life etc... dying and settling on the bottom...

[trav7777]

besides exponential growth, another thing ordinary people cannot wrap their heads around is just how fking long 10 or 100 million YEARS really is.  It is almost incomprehensibly long.

Oh, and bog marshes spit up methane and other natural gasses...surely the abiotic folks know this.  In a zillion years, the everglades will be a big oilfield.

[captain_menace]

"I found enough evidence to at least remain skeptical"

I couldn't agree more.

I look at the horizon and it's pretty damn good evidence that the world is flat.  Damn industry, using the "globe" theory to sell globes with maps and other kinds of crazy stuff on them. 

[Seer]

+1 (sorry, would have given more, but I'm conserving!)

[JW n FL]

Drill! Baby!! Drill!!!

Praise! Jesus!!

Come on everyone say it with me!!!

DRILL!!!

BABY!!!!

DRILL!!!!!!

[msjimmied]

I am beginning to resent all you guys. I have way too much food, I forget sometimes the many spots I have squirreled away the shiny. I have 8 big blue carbon filters. Now I have 4 freaking big containers of gas in my entryway and have absolutely no idea where to store it! Shit...forgot the stabil.

[JW n FL]

build a shed onto your house that is not visable from the drive way or front of your house...

DO NOT STORE FUEL in an UN-Ventilated room / shed.. becareful please, we need as many smart people alive as we can manage.

Solar, for personal use... wind turbines (depending on the wind speed 15mph or better on average) or the best is micro-hydro... all of these being physical purchases.. rolling brown outs or price increases of hundreds of %... either way you want to look at it.

8 mill - 7.5 mill bags (sealable / resealable) http://www.chrismartenson.com/forum/successful-food-storage-day-9-familes-4-tons-5-hours-lessons-learned-recommendations/27519 there may be better sites for info but it will get you started... if you would like some help with regard to good / great defense weapons with regard to the police forces being cut in half in some cases.. let me know happy to help.

[Calmyourself]

All good ideas, but most efficient way to utilize micro wind is battery pile  and inverters.  Maintaining the batteries I have never been good at, anyone have an easy suggestion, thread hijack I know...

[JW n FL]

if.. big "IF" you have high winds... wind power is a great idea.. high wind speeds equal power.

as for batteries... AGM is the easiest to not have to manage.

but.. big BUT I am on a forklift battery hunt as I am speaking to you.

But then again, golfcart battery(s) are great and cheap from costco / sam's / BJ's.

It comes down to battery life verse cost for me. But having a bank of golf cart batteries..

6 volt battery.. for a 48 volt system... equals 8 Battery's.

***** "

How Many Batteries Do I Need?

The amp-hour (A-Hr) rating of a battery tells you its storage capacity. This rating can be listed for different discharge time periods but the 20 hour discharge time (C20) will be closest to the typical daily cycling of a residential solar system (20 hour discharge after a 4 hour charging period).

To work out your required storage capacity, take your average daily usage and divide by the battery voltage. Let's say you use 3600 Watts of electricity per day and your solar system operates at 12 volts.

3600 Watts divided by 12 volts = 300 amp hours

Since you don't want battery discharge of much more than 50% you would double the 300 amp hour figure and see that you will need 600 amp hours of battery storage.

If you wanted to be ready for 3 days of cloudy weather you would multiply that 600 amp hours by 3 to get 1800 amp hours.

If you want to know how many watts a battery can supply, just multiply the voltage by the amp hours. E.g. A 12 volt battery that can supply 100 amp hours would provide (12 x 100)= 1200 watts." *****

http://www.solarpowerbeginner.com/solar-batteries.html

I just found this site today.. I thought it was a great cheat sheet, to numbers check what is being offered to me from the engineer for needs.

But back to the battery question... golfcart battery(s) for less that $90 bucks each... or thousands of dollars for forklift battery(s).

I would stay away from the in-between stuff if I were you.

Good Luck! and share anything you learn please for me and everyone else!

[Calmyourself]

We have explored golf cart batts some of the best out there. Glass mat is so damned expensive.  I am having trouble managing the breakdown of the batteries themselves sulfur etc..  I have looked for a computer program I can plug test (SG) into and figure out courses of treatment to prolong life.. The search continues..  So many ideas so little time..

[Crisismode]

Why is there always someone like you to to come and talk sense into the picture?

You just spoil everything!

[JW n FL]

Other Pocket PC Products

 LoadCalc_setup.exe   (70 KB). PDA-Service Calculations

 VoltageDropCalc_setup.exe   (51.5 KB). PDA-Voltage Drop Calculator V2.0 (American & Metric) Windows Mobile 2003 or later

 VoltageDropCalc-1_setup.exe  (129 KB). PDA-Voltage Drop Calculator V1.0 (American units only) Windows Mobile 2002 or later

http://www.simplifiedofficesoftware.com/downloads.aspx

Voltage Drop Calculator 3.0 specifications

http://www.downloadplex.com/Windows/Graphic-Apps/CAD/Specifications-voltage-drop-calculator_311554.html

I would recomend an Engineer in your part of the world to plug in numbers... for the system as a whole.. of you are going with any solar... please take the time to research the micro inverter.. save yourself money and production.. by leaps and bounds!

[velobabe]

 have a man that is in the generator rebuilding business, just right around the corner. not that i can use a generator in my life right now, but maybe in the future. that is hope i can believe in.

generator, bitchez†

[JW n FL]

you have to be able to power the generator...

solar...

wind...

hydro...

think of things that you can control... http://www.oynot.com/xwsystemvideo.html I like the looks of this. but I am still waiting for the Engineer to come back with the best for me.. http://rc-eng.com/

I would recomend you finding an engineer near you that understands your weather patterns... there are idiots all over the Country that want to build you a system but not raise seal the final drawings for a large fee.. just trust me, get someone in your area or close by who will sign and seal his work for you. there are tax benefits going forward and a few other things that you can turn into silver / gold if you are savy (which you are).

[velobabe]

thanks, john edward workhorse, but i don't own any property. so i am only dreaming on this one. i probably already played out my alternative energy life style. i had solar system attached to my '75 house. didn't work. be one with the wind, though and the sun for that matter. maybe in my next life, this one is just about over for me. glad you are getting a system together in florida.

i know all about my weather pattern, i live them and am a weather pattern.

[JW n FL]

you could consider a panel or 2... with a micro inverter installed on the panel so you could take it with you, if you had to travel / move.

I am not recomending this site (it just came up first in google, look for better pricing) http://www.wholesalesolar.com/products.folder/inverter-folder/m210-enphase-microinverter.html

the panels maybe be 3 foot or 4 foot wide by 4 foot or 5 foot tall.. but they are not so very heavy.. so you can place them where ever you want... and the micro inverter gives you AC power for your fridge / washing machine / lap top... buy a couple batteries and you can have lights at night.. all of this is under $1,000 bucks for you to be able to provide yourself some power, if you had too.

The 3% rule... you dont have to be 100% free of the grid's power supply but being at least 3% able to provide your own power just in case is a great thing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWvM1PP5Lt8

[buzzsaw99]

Possibly one good outcome. This woman might lose some weight:

http://verydemotivational.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/129129889222592515...

[Atomizer]

1932 - GENERAL MOTORS: Value and Sales Appeal

http://www.prmuseum.com/bernays/bernays_1932.html

2011 Edward Bernays translation.. Please buy our lovely clown cars. We ask all proles to especially take notice of our pristine 40K coal powered vehicle known as the Volt. If you don't plan on traveling more than 40 miles a day, this automobile is for you.

If your Volt battery ever becomes disabled, contact us at 888-466-7827, press (1) for English via your mobile phone. We regret to inform that the use of blue OnStar button is inoperative during low battery discharge.

[DaylightWastingTime]

if OPEC hears the music, metal heads are going to get a haircut

[tahoebumsmith]

Just filled up at $4.12 a gallon. All I heard around me were people bitching about the gas prices. Micro economics at the pump today tells me the true story.

[DaylightWastingTime]

aye it cost the same amount to fill up my cbr 1000 today as it did to fill up my 67 mustang 13 years ago.

hoping i can get a good trade on my motorcycle for a moped.

[Crisismode]

It did NOT cost the same 13 years ago.

Did you figure in INFLATION, as in ShadowStats inflation (the REAL deal) over the last 13 years?

No?

I thought not.

[serotonindumptruck]

Not sure if this is old news.

Trouble in Oman.

http://arabnews.com/middleeast/article301762.ece

[DaylightWastingTime]

i think inflation is being used by the US as a weapon sort of like china is using cheap labor to fight us. it's the best kindling for revolution in nations with horrendous wealth inequality. i think in terms of geopolitical strategy, we are causing revolutions with recessions so as to ultimately break OPEC.this article illustrates the necessity of this (since anyone in their right mind knows green technology is a sour mash drunk down syndrome) and green technology makes corn a fuel for cars and not humans, no wonder they are rioting over there. the most beautiful thing about this scenario is the elite can make a shit ton speculating up the rising tide of fear and then when opec is busted, rape everyone when the wave crashes that didn't know oil (or gold) {the funny thing is look at the chinese populace's tendency to buy gold since they made it legal to do so. the irony is hilarious} was subsequently destined to fall through the floor, when out of the rubble of this chaos no bid oil contracts written with the ink of american interest are signed by the newly installed us friendly rulers. and if we can't deal out that type of government in these countries and muslim fundamentalism plays the higher card, we will outbid them with bombs and bullets.

[glenlloyd]

I believe that people should buy the vehicle they want, but also need to live with the consequences of that purchase and not bitch about fuel costs when the 12mpg (at best) SUV or jumbo SUV costs $100 to fill every week (or worse).

Someone else posted that people have the attention span of a gnat and I would agree. It was such a short time ago that oil was at $147 / barrel, you would think that people would take that into consideration when it's time to buy, but they don't, they've forgotten everything before the last five minutes. It's really rather embarassing TBH.

[DaylightWastingTime]

but the financing on that gas drunk was pretty fine. the oil drum roll ends with a snare.

[bob_dabolina]

Automobiles can also run on NatGas which we have shit tons of. Why don't we just convert?

[Kayman]

bob

"Why don't we just convert?

Because it makes too much sense.

[AmCockerSpaniel]

Too long to get into here. They need to crack the rock down there to let the gas out. Well it seems that in doing so it lets stuff from down there leak up to the surface. The drinking water wells get contaminated. They now say stop the drilling, and cap the wells they have already drilled. So it's the old "not in my back yard".

[cosmictrainwreck]

well, if so, why can NatGas NOT crack $4/therm? Delayed reaction? My guess is even if they cut all the fracking we're still over-supplied. maybe i'm nuts?

[Calmyourself]

It does not take too long.. i can convert a gas engine in an hour or two tops..  Putting a high pressure nat gas station on every corner takes longer but that does not mean it will not work..

[CrashisOptimistic]

Because it doesn't work.  Natural Gas (methane) has 1/1000th the energy density of crude oil at 1 atmosphere of pressure.

If you liquify it, that is the same as freezing it -- to cryo temperatures.  That doesn't happen energy free.

There is no solution.

Stories you hear about this are either scams or deception.  Look up the Honda Civic nat gas version.  No trunk.  The tank had to be made bigger to get any range at all and so no trunk.  And it's compressed gas (aka bomb).  And it costs $7000 more than a conventional Civic.  And it has only 60% of a conventional Civic's range even with the huge fuel tank..

There is no solution.

[cxl9]

Wrong. There is no solution that you've thought of. Fortunately, there are people much smarter than you out there, and powerful financial incentives, to solve the problems. The world is not going to end with expensive oil and declining production. People adapt. Behavior changes. New solutions emerge. Life goes on. So shut up already.

[Crisismode]

YOU shut up already. You are just spouting the NatGas partyline.

Get real.

[Seer]

Geez, lay off the needle!

Ever wonder what happens should your unicorn world disappoint?  I'm hedged, in which case if the unicorns are a bust I'll be fine.  Will the world end if they don't show up?  No.  Will you live if they don't?  Hm... That's the question, isn't it?  Since you're here posting on ZH I doubt that you've got inside connections to TPTB that would allow you into their fold if the unicorns don't materialize.

I hope that all who are so dismissive of how critical this all is gets to get a nice dose of it when it all goes down.

NOTE: I didn't stockpile for Y2K, so I'm no MRE survivalist or End-Times follower.  No, this time I've recognized (without group-think) that it's the real deal; and I'll only minimally stockpile, opting to be more sustainable as a way of life (like most of the folks on this planet, the ones that aren't sucking hopium for some energy "solution").

[Motorhead]

What do Da Bears have to say about all this?

[DaylightWastingTime]

go back to ILLaNOISE obama?

[bob_dabolina]

"Oil Fields Are Refilling...Naturally - Sometimes Rapidly"

http://www.rense.com/general63/refil.htm

[trav7777]

...but not as fast as we are draining them, otherwise, production would never have declined, would it?

[Calmyourself]

But if old fields are refilling while we find new sources and tap nat gas and maximize nukes we may not all die??  Oh never mind, I will do this myself..

Your a F*&^%$ Idiot, I did not want you to have to type that Trav, I got er done..

[trav7777]

when the fuck did I say we were all going to die?

At what RATE are the oilfields refilling?  This is what you should focus your attention on.

tap natgas, maximize nukes...wtf does this mean?  It means a major change in life. If you set the bar at "not all die," then that is pretty frakin low and you are a bigger doomer than most around here.

[Flakmeister]

  This is Eugene Island, wiki it for a start..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_Island_block_330_oil_field

[captain_menace]

Well, it ain't happening up here in Alaska.

Our production curve is pretty predictable.  And we're all enjoying the downhill slide...

Check it out if you enjoy dry government literature...

http://www.dog.dnr.state.ak.us/oil/products/publications/annual/2009_annual_report/updated_2009_annual_report/Annual%20Report%202009%20Updated%205-18-10.pdf

I pray every night to my gods (the gods Oil and Gas) that abiotic theory is true.  Yet our wells remain dry.  Perhaps a virgin sacrifice is in order???

[bullionaire1]

Expenditures for fuel had already surged back to $400 billion before the recent spike in oil prices. Next stop $500 billion. That should do wonders for the faux economic recovery that has been touted by Obama and the MSM for the last year. The years of denial, lies, indecision, bad decisions, and inertia have left the country vulnerable and at the mercy of countries in far off lands that despise our way of life.

The last part got me thinking of what you wrote earlier in the piece...about American's   "mindless decisions and willingness to be led to slaughter by corrupt politicians" and congressmen diverting the attention of the "non-thinking masses" and "the ignorance of the American car buyer knows no bounds...Americans have the attention span of a gnat and are already dazed and confused by the surge in gas prices".

If our way of life is mindless decisions based on mass non-thinking, ignorance because we have the attention span of a gnat, I can understand how some of these people in far off lands (who have been repressed by the despots supported by the American government and now find their source of wealth largely gone to feed an insatiable American appetite) have come to increasingly despise our "way of life".

Unfortunately, your comments about American ignorance are all too accurate, especially when it comes to what their government has done & continues to do in their name...

More unfortunately, Americans may not wake up to this fact until it is very late in the game, if not too late to do anything (such as hold their politicians to account to do the right thing) to appease the new leadership that will emerge in the ME. 

In fact, it is only a matter of time before the Bernank has printed so many dollars that there will be more dollars than oil left.  I think the BTUs in a barrel of oil would provide more utility than a billion barrels of dollars tho...  

[DaylightWastingTime]

we should all aspire for the attention span of a gad fly

[topcallingtroll]

We have a lot of problems right now but peak oil is hardly.the civilization collapsing event it is made out to be. You can keep buying those gas guzzlers because a few thousand dollars is all it takes to convert to natgas.

Spending $3000 to $5000 more to change your vehicle to natgas or a limited mileage electric vehicle is an inconvenience but hardly a societal catastrophe. Most americans are making good decisions.by ignoring the fear mongering and enjoying their lives.

[Seer]

I'd love to drag your ass down to Manila and watch the reaction on the Metro Manila folks to your claims that $3000 to $5000 is an inconvenience: that's $135,000 to $225,000 pesos.

You'd be laughed at like the clown that you are...  freaking entitled snobs!

"Most americans are making good decisions.by ignoring the fear mongering and enjoying their lives."

Really?  Massively in debt (from getting suckered into stupid-assed schemes, like NG conversion?), 44 million on food stamps?

[Atomizer]

Still waiting for the climate change committee to launch wind powered/solar agricultural equipment regulations. By then, farmers will be forced to use plows driven by mules.

[Seer]

Keep up with the times!  Mother Nature says "No plow" is the future.

[reader2010]

Fuck! Even the Post Office hiked their rate today. I went to the USPS website to figure out the cost of shipping a package and got a quote of $15. But, when I went to the Post Office counter and was charged 22% more. 

[NERVEAGENTVX]

@ sabra1

Oil doesn't come out of a "cavern" in the ground.LOL. It is extracted from a matrix of poreous solid rock.

[AN0NYM0US]

Jim, I recall your article a couple of years ago on the US consumer and many of the things you predicted came about

What you are suggesting about oil is true but the question is when and related to that is the more important issue of water. 7 to 10 years is my guess and for North America the political implications will be interesting to watch as that vast underpopulated country to our north has both oil and water, which along with natural gas would solve the problem in this region of the world for the rest of this century.

Apart from the necessity to start converting the economy to NG is the question will Canada be a willing bride to its southern neighbor, my guess is they will.

[DaylightWastingTime]

buy shares in coke if your worried about water, it's the real thing. just ask india.

[Atomizer]

We have the US dealership inventories loaded to the hilt, time to raise oil prices to condition the masses to by our products.

We'll make billions on loan interest payments. Creating another peak oil crisis has never failed us.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7yyah-j7b4

lather, wash, repeat.

[topcallingtroll]

We can convert our vehicles now to run on gasoline or natural gas for less than $3000.

You can use conventional batteries and do a complete conversion of a junker to electric with about a forty mile range for less than $4500.

Our heavy industry and electrical grid do not depend on petroleum, but on other fuel sources such as natural gas and coal.

A 1940's steam locomotive is still more efficient and provides greater torque than diesel locomotives.

A transition off petroleum and greater use of nuclear, green energy, biomass, and other traditional fuels will be difficult, but even if the backside of hubbert's slope is more like a cliff it is hardly a catastrophe for the USA.

It will be a catastrophe for the third world, but they have overpopulated and ruined their environments so a mild to moderate die off would be good for the planet although aggressive birth control leading to zero population growth would be more humane.

[Atomizer]

Seems a bit boring for my likings.. How about this?

http://www.hennesseyperformance.com/hpe500navi.html

http://www.hennesseyperformance.com/hpe500marklt.html

I'm really relieved to have someone like yourself to pick up the slack for types like me. Save the world TopcallingTroll..

[velobabe]

 remember Hennessey†

[topcallingtroll]

Nice!

Hubbert's cliff, if it is a cliff, will be a severe depression, but it wont be a civilization collapsing event.

[cosmictrainwreck]

guess I'm missing something...... Hennesey ads look like straight-up power boosts - nothing to do with natgas. Selling to Lincoln owners to enable out-running the unwashed?

[velobabe]

no my friend (then) back in the mid eighties converted his ford F150 to natural gas. he had help customizing his truck, but he got it done. he was actually a chevy freak, but decided it would work best with his ford. his brother did it as well. they were in cattle or butchering or feeding the animals. so it was his work truck. it can be done. lobbyist just stopped it, from coming to fruition, in D.C.

[topcallingtroll]

It is a lot easier now. You can buy kits on the internet to convert your vehicle to natgas.

[cosmictrainwreck]

and then....where do I get my natgas fuel?

[10kby2k]

nat gas will perform well in any auto accident insuring a total loss

[cosmictrainwreck]

LOL... handy piece of information. thanks

[JimS]

It's not correct to say that locomotives are run by diesel. All locomotives built for the last 60+ years are diesel-electrics. A diesel engine runs a giant electric motor, and the torque is far greater than what can be generated by a "steam" engine, and is quite cheap to run, when calculated on tons of freight shipped per mile. Far more efficient than the old steam locomotives. Hands down. You are wrong.

[Seer]

"You are wrong."  It's a shame that you had to spend energy to get to this point.  The time-wasting moron is wrong from the get-go.  But, yes, thanks for bringing actual real information to the table.

Further, and it's been clearly stated, though people still fail to grasp the ramifications (being only interested in pushing their fat asses down some road one way or another) of less-dense energy requiring larger storage spaces.  Pretty soon, as the energy sources become more and more less energy dense people will end up riding on the outside of a vehicle! (and all the while pointing out how much energy we have!)

[AN0NYM0US]

ng is great but my neighborhood Mobil doesn't sell it

and as for your eugenics theme - who'd a thought TCT and Bill and Melinda have so much in common