This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Guest Post: As Things Fell Apart, Nobody Paid Much Attention
Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform
As Things Fell Apart, Nobody Paid Much Attention
The American way of life – which is now virtually synonymous with
suburbia – can run only on reliable supplies of dependably cheap oil
and gas. Even mild to moderate deviations in either price or supply will
crush our economy and make the logistics of daily life impossible. – Jim Kunstler – The Long Emergency
Here we stand
Like an Adam and an Eve
Waterfalls
The Garden of Eden
Two fools in love
So beautiful and strong
The birds in the trees
Are smiling upon them
So beautiful and strong
The birds in the trees
Are smiling upon them
From the age of the dinosaurs
Cars have run on gasoline
Where, where have they gone?
Now, it’s nothing but flowers
Talking Heads – Nothing but Flowers
America was a Garden of Eden with nothing but flowers, trees and
vegetation. We bit into the forbidden fruit of oil over a century ago.
It has been a deal with the Devil. Oil brought immense wealth, rapid
industrialization, 2.7 million miles of paved roads, and enormous power
to America. But, now the SUV is running on empty. In the not too distant
future the downside of the deal with the Devil will reveal itself.
America was the land of the free and home of the brave. Now it is the
land of the Range Rover and home of the BMW. In a few years it could be
the land of the forlorn and home of the broken down. Our entire society
has been built upon a foundation of cheap oil. The discovery of oil in
Titusville, PA in 1859 turbo charged the Industrial Revolution in the
U.S. The development of our sprawling suburban culture was dependent
upon cheap oil. Americans could not survive for a week without oil.
Commerce in the U.S. depends upon long haul truckers. Food is
transported thousands of miles to grocery stores. The cheap Wal-Mart
crap is transported thousands of miles across the seas from China.
Americans believe it is our God given right to cheap oil. We are the
chosen people. Kevin Phillips, in his brilliant book American Theocracy describes our love affair with cheap oil:
Americans constitute the world’s most intensive motoring culture.
For reasons of history and past abundance, no other national population
has clumped so complacently around so fuelish a lifestyle. For many
citizens the century of oil has brought surfeit: gas-guzzling mobile
fortresses, family excursions on twenty
thousand-thousand-gallons-per-hour jet aircraft, and lavishly lit
McMansions in glittering, mall packed exurbs along outer beltways.
Against a backdrop of declining national oil and gas output, Americans
consume 25% of world energy while holding just 5% of its energy
resources. As the new century began, Americans enjoyed a lifestyle
roughly twice as energy intensive as those in Europe and Japan, some ten
times the global average. Of the world’s 520 million automobiles,
unsurprisingly, more than 200 million were driven in the United States,
and the U.S. car population was increasing at five times the rate of the
human population. How long that could continue was not clear.
John and Jane Q. Citizen mostly ignore these trends and details,
and know nothing of geologist Hubbert’s bell-shaped charts of peak oil.
Senior oil executives sometimes discuss them in industry conferences,
but elected officials – many with decades of energy platitudes under
their belts – typically shrink from opening what would be a Pandora’s
Box of political consequences. Oil was there for our grandfathers, they
insist, and it will be there for our grandchildren; it is part of the American way.
Ignoring the facts and pretending that we can count on cheap oil for
eternity is delusional. It is also the American way. The age of oil is
coming to an end.
There are consequences to every action. There are also consequences
to every inaction. Over the next decade Americans will experience the
dire consequences of inaction. The implications of peak cheap oil have
been apparent for decades. The Department of Energy was created in 1977.
The Department of Energy’s overarching mission was to
advance the national, economic, and energy security of the United
States. In 1970, the U.S. imported only 24% of its oil. There were 108
million motor vehicles in the U.S., or .53 vehicles per person in the
U.S. Today, the U.S. imports 70% of its oil and there are 260 million
vehicles, or .84 vehicles per person. Jim Kunstler describes our bleak
future in The Long Emergency:
”American people are sleepwalking into a future of hardship and
turbulence. The Long Emergency will change everything. Globalism will
wither. Life will become profoundly and intensely local. The consumer
economy will be a strange memory. Suburbia – considered a birthright and
a reality by millions of Americans – will become untenable. We will
struggle to feed ourselves. We may exhaust and bankrupt ourselves in the
effort to prop up the unsustainable. And finally, the United States may
not hold together as a nation. We are entering an uncharted territory
of history.”
The land of the delusional has no inkling that their lives of happy
motoring are winding down. The vast majority of Americans believe that
oil is abundant and limitless. Their leaders have lied to them. They
will be completely blindsided by the coming age of hardship.
Factories & Shopping Malls
There was a factory
Now there are mountains and rivers
you got it, you got it
Now there are mountains and rivers
you got it, you got it
We caught a rattlesnake
Now we got something for dinner
we got it, we got it
Now we got something for dinner
we got it, we got it
There was a shopping mall
Now it’s all covered with flowers
you’ve got it, you’ve got it
Now it’s all covered with flowers
you’ve got it, you’ve got it
If this is paradise
I wish I had a lawnmower
you’ve got it, you’ve got it
I wish I had a lawnmower
you’ve got it, you’ve got it
Talking Heads – Nothing but Flowers
If Americans had any sense of history longer than last week’s episode
of Dancing with the Stars (how about that Bristol Palin!), they may
have noticed that the modern age has lasted a mere 150 years and has
been completely dependent upon cheap plentiful oil. This is a mere eye
blink in the history of mankind. American exceptionalism refers to the
opinion that the United States is qualitatively different from other
nations. Its exceptionalism is claimed to stem from its emergence from a
revolution, becoming “the first new nation” and developing “a unique
American ideology, based on liberty, egalitarianism, individualism,
populism and laissez-faire”. This feeling of superiority stems from the
belief that we have a moral superiority and God has chosen our country
to be a shining symbol for the rest of the world. It is the ultimate in
hubris to think that we are the chosen ones. An enormous amount of
credit for the American Century (1900 – 2000) must be given to pure and
simple luck.
Everything characteristic about the condition we call modern life
has been a direct result of our access to abundant supplies of cheap
fossil fuels. Fossil fuels have permitted us to fly, to go where we want
to go rapidly, and move things easily from place to place. Fossil fuels
rescued us from the despotic darkness of the night. They have made the
pharaonic scale of building commonplace everywhere. They have allowed a
fractionally tiny percentage of our swollen populations to produce
massive amounts of food. All of the marvels and miracles of the
twentieth century were enabled by our access to abundant supplies of
cheap fossil fuels. The age of fossil fuels is about to end. There is no
replacement for them at hand. These facts are poorly understood by the
global population preoccupied with the thrum of daily life, but
tragically, too, by the educated classes in the United States, who
continue to be by far the greatest squanderers of fossil fuels. – Jim Kunstler – The Long Emergency
Every accomplishment, invention, and discovery of the 20th
Century was due to cheap accessible fossil fuels. The American
industrial age was powered by cheap plentiful oil. One hundred and ten
years after the discovery of oil in Titusville, PA an American walked on
the moon. We harnessed the immense power of oil and rode it hard. An
empire was born and grew to the greatest in history through the
utilization of oil and oil byproducts. It is no coincidence that U.S.
GDP has been dependent upon the growth in fossil fuel consumption over
the last 150 years.
The self centered delusional myopic American citizenry see no
parallel between the American Empire built on a foundation of oil and
the Dutch Empire built upon wind and water or the British Empire
established on the discovery of vast quantities of coal. The Dutch
Empire of the 1600s had 6,000 ships and 1,000 windmills generating
power. The British Empire used coal to power steam engines, pumps,
locomotives and ships and forged a great empire in the 1700s and 1800s.
Today, the Netherlands has a GDP lower than Mexico. The U.K. has a GDP
on par with Italy. You can be sure you are no longer an empire when your
GDP is on par with Mexico and Italy. The United States has grown its
GDP to $14.7 trillion by exploiting fossil fuels. The American Empire is
clearly waning as its dependence on foreign oil slowly bankrupts the
country. We consume 140 billion gallons of gasoline every year keeping
our suburban sprawl mall based lifestyle viable.
Cars, Highways & Billboards
Years ago
I was an angry young man
I’d pretend
That I was a billboard
Standing tall
By the side of the road
I fell in love
With a beautiful highway
This used to be real estate
Now it’s only fields and trees
Where, where is the town
Now, it’s nothing but flowers
The highways and cars
Were sacrificed for agriculture
I thought that we’d start over
But I guess I was wrong
Talking Heads – Nothing but Flowers
Americans believe our ingenuity, brilliance and blessings from God
have led to the elevation of our country to eminence as the greatest
empire in history. But, in reality it was due to a black sticky
substance that we stumbled across in 1859. Those who believe in American
Exceptionalism scoff at the idea that our empire would not exist
without oil. They prefer to ignore and downplay the impact of oil on our
society. Too bad. Here are the facts from www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/.
- Approximately 10 calories of fossil fuels are required to produce every 1 calorie of food eaten in the US.
- Pesticides and agro-chemicals are made from oil.
- Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is made from natural gas.
- Most farming implements such as tractors and trailers are constructed and powered using oil-derived fuels.
- Food storage systems such as refrigerators are manufactured in
oil-powered plants, distributed using oil-powered transportation
networks and usually run on electricity, which most often comes from
natural gas or coal. - The average piece of food is transported almost 1,500 miles before it gets to your plate.
- In addition to transportation, food, water, and modern medicine,
mass quantities of oil are required for all plastics, all computers and
all high-tech devices. - The construction of an average car consumes the energy equivalent of approximately 20 barrels of oil.
- The construction of the average desktop computer consumes ten times its weight in fossil fuels.
- According to the American Chemical Society, the construction of
single 32 megabyte DRAM chip requires 3.5 pounds of fossil fuels. - Recent estimates indicate the infrastructure necessary to
support the internet consumes 10% of all the electricity produced in the
United States. - The manufacturing of one ton of cement requires 4.7 million BTUs
of energy, which is the amount contained in about 45 gallons of oil.
Our entire civilization will collapse in a week without oil. Try to
imagine life if the 159,000 gas stations in the country ran dry. We are
running on fumes and refuse to acknowledge that fact. We sooth our
psyche with delusions of green energy (solar, wind, ethanol); drill,
drill, drill mantras; abiotic oil theories; and vast quantities of shale
gas. The concept of energy required to extract an amount of energy
completely goes over the head of media pundits and those who prefer not
to think. If you expend 2 gallons of gasoline in your effort to extract 1
gallon of gasoline, you’ve hit the wall. We have sacrificed our future
in order to maximize our present, as William James concluded in the late
1800s:
“The most significant characteristic of modern civilization is
the sacrifice of the future for the present, and all the power of
science has been prostituted to this purpose.”
Americans have a fatal character flaw of desiring others to think
they are successful because they drive an expensive gas guzzling
automobile and reside in an immense energy intensive McMansion in
suburbs 30 miles from civilization. Delusional Americans have convinced
themselves that the appearance of success is success. Leasing $50,000
BMWs for decades and borrowing $500,000 to live in a $300,000 house has
already pushed millions of egotistical to the edge. Of the 250 million
passenger vehicles on the road today, 100 million are SUVs or pickup
trucks. The average fuel mileage is 17 mpg. Approximately 70% of
Americans drive to work every day, with 85% driving alone. They spend 45
minutes on average commuting to and from work and drive 15 miles to
work. The average home size increased from 1,400 sq ft in 1970 to 2,300
sq ft today, despite the fact that the average household size decreased
from 3.1 to 2.6. The bigger is better fantasy will be devastating on the
downward slope of peak oil.
Pizza Huts, Dairy Queens & 7 Elevens
Once there were parking lots
Now it’s a peaceful oasis
you got it, you got it
Now it’s a peaceful oasis
you got it, you got it
This was a Pizza Hut
Now it’s all covered with daisies
you got it, you got it
Now it’s all covered with daisies
you got it, you got it
I miss the honky tonks,
Dairy Queens, and 7-Elevens
you got it, you got it
Dairy Queens, and 7-Elevens
you got it, you got it
And as things fell apart
Nobody paid much attention
you got it, you got it
Talking Heads – Nothing but Flowers
How will Americans survive without the 7,500 Pizza Huts, 5,000 Dairy
Queens, and 8,000 7-11s that dot our highways? The average Joe is so
busy tweeting, texting, and face-booking on their iPads, Blackberries,
and laptops, watching Dancing With the Stars on their 52 inch HDTV
bought on credit, or cruising superhighways in their leased Hummers to
one of the 1,100 malls or 46,000 shopping centers, that they haven’t
paid much attention as peak oil crept up on them. The globalization
miracle of cheap goods produced in China and shipped across the world by
cargo ship and then trucked thousands of miles to your local Wal-Mart
is wholly reliant upon cheap oil. Our own military has concluded that:
By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely
disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach
nearly 10 MBD. – Joint Operating Environment Report
When worldwide oil demand slightly exceeded worldwide oil supply in
2008, prices surged to $145 per barrel. A 10 million barrel per day
shortfall is unfathomable by the purposefully ignorant masses. The
sprawling suburbia that now houses the American population will become
not viable when oil prices rise above $200 per barrel. Out-of-town
shopping and entertainment malls will be deserted. The prosperity borne
from the advent of oil is waning. Jim Kunstler explains the end game in The Long Emergency:
The entropic mess that our economy has become is in the final
blow-off of late oil-based industrialism. The destructive practices
known as “free market globalism” were engendered by our run-up to and
arrival at the world oil production peak. It was the logical climax of
the oil “story”. It required the breakdown of all previous constraints –
logistical, political, moral, cultural – to maximize the present at the
expense of the future, and to do so for the benefit of the very few at
the expense of the many. Even mild to moderate deviations in either
price or supply [of oil and gas] will crush our economy and make the
logistics of daily life impossible.
The United States is already tottering, as the oligarchy of the Wall
Street banking syndicate, global mega-corporations and corrupt political
hacks in Washington DC have pillaged the wealth of the country and left
a middle class gasping for air. The mood of the country is already
darkening as The Fourth Turning
gathers steam. The recognition by the masses that peak cheap oil is a
fact will contribute greatly to the next stage of this Crisis. Fourth
Turning periods always lead to war. American troops are not in the
Middle East to spread democracy. They are the forward vanguard in the
coming clash over depleting oil resources. We are entering an era of
strife, war, chaos and destruction. The facts of who controls oil supply
and who needs oil (U.S. – 25%, China – 10%) are clear. Kunstler bluntly
deals with the facts:
Fossil fuel reserves are not scattered equitably around the
world. They tend to be concentrated in places where the native peoples
don’t like the West in general or America in particular, places
physically very remote, places where we realistically can exercise
little control (even if we wish to). The decline of fossil fuels is
certain to ignite chronic strife between nations contesting the
remaining supplies. These resource wars have already begun. There will
be more of them. They are very likely to grind on and on for decades.
They will only aggravate a situation that, in and of itself, could bring
down civilizations. The extent of suffering in our country will
certainly depend on how tenaciously we attempt to cling to obsolete
habits, customs, and assumptions – for instance, how fiercely Americans
decide to fight to maintain suburban lifestyles that simply cannot be
rationalized any longer. – Jim Kunstler – The Long Emergency
Mr. Kunstler believes that the U.S. will be forced to downscale,
localize and adapt to a new reality. I wholly support his attempt to
warn the American people and would urge those who chose to think that
preparing for a more agrarian lifestyle that will be forced upon us by
circumstances is essential. No technological miracle will save us from
our fate. Decades of inaction will have a price. I truly hope that his
optimism that hardship will renew the American spirit will reveal
itself:
“But I don’t doubt that the hardships of the future will draw
even the most secular spirits into an emergent spiritual practice of
some kind.”
As I live in the outer suburbs and commute 30 miles per day into the
decrepit decaying city of Philadelphia every day, I’m less optimistic
that the transition will be smooth or even possible. Kunstler’s view of
the suburbs is accurate:
“The state-of-the-art mega suburbs of recent decades have
produced horrendous levels of alienation, loneliness, anomie, anxiety,
and depression.”
Families stay huddled in their McMansions, protected from phantoms by
state of the art security systems. Their interaction with the world is
through their electronic gadgets. Neighborhoods of cookie cutter 4,000
sq ft mansions appear deserted. Human interaction is rare. Happiness is
in short supply. As I sit in miles of traffic every morning during my
soul destroying trek to work I observe the thousands of cars, SUVs, and
trucks and wonder how this can possibly work when the peak oil tsunami
washes over our society in the next few years. Then I reach the bowels
of the inner city and my pessimism grows. This concrete jungle is
occupied by hundreds of thousands of uneducated, unmotivated, wards of
the state. They live a bleak existence in bleak surroundings and depend
upon subsistence payments from the depressed suburbanites to keep them
alive. How will they survive in a post peak oil world? They won’t.
The Hirsch Report and Jim Kunstler’s The Long Emergency
both were published in 2005. M. King Hubbert warned U.S. leaders
decades in advance about the expected timing of peak oil. The warnings
have fallen on deaf ears. We were busy with our wars of choice, home
price wealth, gays in the military, and the latest episode of Jersey
Shore.
And as things fell apart
Nobody paid much attention
»
- 28839 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
I did not post any "solution", just the Green tip of the day.
You might want to contact the manufacturer for storage life of the oils. Should be a few years I'd presume.
Oh this post is going to go over soooo well with the ZH crowd!
I <3 the ZH editors. You guys are on the ball. JHK and now this. Excellent.
Keep it rolling. Roll that mo'fo all the way out. Even if you aren't buying it, even if you are justing feeding the cretins, keep it rolling. There are days when I have no hope, no faith, no way out ...
... and then, there are days like today!
c@
A rock band to illustrate the apcolyptic peak oil senario? The Talking Heads wealth and popularity is the result of their "carbon footprint" or petroleum use while making Vinyl Records, by burning Fossile Fuels with caravans of semi-tractor trailers and personal jets, and with coal generated, massive electricity usage at concerts.
The Talking Heads selfish use of oil for fame and prosperity seems incongruent with the main point of the article.
Did Byrne claim he wasn't part of the problem too?
I am going to play devil's advocate:
We would have to average wealth created by the band per Kcal of energy & resource consumption and compare it to other industries. Rock bands don't use virgin vinyl pressings, for the most part.
Yeah, great fodder for the physical-limits deniers, but the message is still the message. I never really get caught up in attacking the messenger, as they're always targets for the opposition, and I'd rather look to extrapolate the data myself than being pulled into a cheerleading campaign...
Talk about sheep. My God...What does this have to do with politics? Buy xom and be glad you did down the road. Quit looking at your stupid charts....sheeple charts....and go out and look at the sky which isn't falling. Nobody has the answer and nobody ever will. Grow fucking up!!
Ask any Iraqi, dumbfuck.
Your ignorance will be repaid in pain.
<sarcasm on> Hey! Quit being so negative!
Connecting Folks, One Bomb at a Timehttp://www.utne.com/Politics/Afghanistan-Bombing-Connecting-Government-T...
a senior U.S. military official was quoted in The Washington Post as saying that the damage to Afghan land and property from bombings accompanying the escalation of military operations to the highest levels in the history of the U.S. war in that country will have a benefit for the local population:
Thanks ZH for another great post. But, apparently a lot of the
visitors on your site, are cretins. And have not been enlightened
by your site, too bad for them. They will be the first to go,
when the shit hits the fan.
Peak oil is a myth.
As supply is reduced, prices rise.
As prices rise, additional incentives are created that spur new drilling.
As new drilling takes place, supplies are expanded.
If indeed there is no more supply (highly unlikely), as prices rise, new energy sources will be utilized.
There is no need to worry about the ridiculous notion the world is going to run out of oil.
Just as our ancestors never cut down all the trees for burning; we discovered a new source of energy: oil.
Why we aren't exploiting nuclear is just beyond me. Think of all that clean electrical energy to charge your Tesla with...
This is very simple: we aren't exploiting nukes because it is too expensive.
The market dictates behavior. It is cheaper to burn the world than smash atoms.
Because nuclear isn't the most profitable approach, it doesn't get done. Everything is working just the way it is supposed to.
That's exactly right.
When government steps in and forces people to use nuclear instead of oil, they are litterally burning money.
It is a wasteful use of resources to force people to use nuclear when oil is more cost efficient.
More things can get done in other places of the economy if people are allowed to use the most economically efficient energy source.
At this time, that source is "fossil" fuels (which aren't made out of fossils).
Stupid government won't even save us a few bucks by burning diesel in our aircraft carriers.
Those fuckers.
Unless it really is running out of oil.
I think that's probably what's motivating -- oh for example -- the US Joint Chiefs of Staff.
If we are running out of oil, then the price structure of the economy will ration its use and spur the development of new energy sources.
Government does not, and should not, do anything to correct this.
yes, as it substitutes starvation for eating.
The price structure will only shift if the actors who have control of production allow it to. And when they do allow it, they will engineer shifts that do not alert the consumers that there is a problem thereby causing thinking peoples to anticipate alternatives. Because it is in their best interests to produce and sell as much product they can at as high a price as they can for as long as they can to consumers who have no clue at all that the game may be over.
Fact.
There is no invisible hand here. All of the hands here have actual names, they like the money, and they will use fear and obfuscation to keep people in the trap, not giving a tinker's dam what happens after.
As for these as-yet unnamed but surely miraculous, extra-ordinary new energy sources always just over the horizon, good luck with that. Simple unalterable physical limitations will swiftly take care of all that nonsense.
what a freaking idiot you are.
Peak is a myth huh?
Then WHY DID THE USA PEAK 40 YEARS AGO?
Why do people ever STARVE?
+1000
And of course, we all know that hard work pays off, you know, all those rich ditch-diggers out there tell us so!
You really have exceptional vision.
This seems to be good exercise for you man, and you certainly practice it enough to be real sharp, but keep the BP down.
Your flogging sped kids who cannot learn due to developmental disability.
We will all be there with lawn chairs and coolers full of whatever to see the looks on peoples faces... Maybe.
It's gonna look a lot like a big ass kegger that just ran out of beer... A bunch of sad sacks and fights breaking out over the cans and bottles...
Experience is what you get right after you could have really used it... Get ahead, take it from someone who has done their homework... Or don't.
Don't look on the era of cheap energy with dread. Just think, everyone will have to walk and be friendly and women will become very shapely again!
Is that after Israel bombs the middle east? Remember who is running this country/world you fucking dumbfuck!!!
Watch how the House of Ishmael sets Israel back to the stone age.
If the relative cost of oil gets too high, the economy will slow down to conserve energy. The necessities of food and energy will crowd out other goods and services. Resource constraints will force the culture to create new technological solutions. Until we do, the economy will lurch in and out of recessions, like a sputtering engine not running on all cylinders. It's not the end of civilization, merely a phase transition to an as yet unknown future. The main geopolitical issues will be public health -- food, pollution, disease. We need to share and cooperate. Right now, 95% are more concerned about "keeping what's mine." This attitude will not be allowed to continue. Our choices are mass population reductions (billions die off), or coordinated cooperation between all nations to keep people fed and healthy. Every man for himself leads to predation and war.
Yes, that's the best case scenario. On the other hand... It's relatively easy to live in harmony when the total pie is growing because everyone in every group or country can see their standard of living improve and no one has to sacrifice anything to help someone less fortunate. Now that oil production has peaked and will start to decline shortly we can expect the total economic pie to shrink. This will mean that the only way you can improve your standard of living is to worsen the standard living of someone else. Which will likely lead to rising tensions and probable violence.
dup
See Michael Klare's book "Resource Wars" for a well studied examination of likely hotspots...
"Resource constraints will force the culture to create new technological solutions."
Ah, one little bitty issue here, and that's that technological development is HIHGLY dependent upon readily available (and resonably priced) energy.
Also to consider is opportunity cost. What's the impact of doing one thing on something else? If you funnel more resources into technology development then that means taking away from other uses, such as from existing operationally active things/systems.
Peak was the moment at which we missed the point of developing a parallel system to replace the existing one. We're in a rocketship and passed the half-way point, there ain't no going back; and, well, what are the odds of landing on a planet that will support life (ours)? Who feels lucky, who wants to jump aboard that rocketship?
"Ah, one little bitty issue here, and that's that technological development is HIHGLY dependent upon readily available (and resonably priced) energy."
Just one objection, the new iPhone has a solar array on the back of it so you can leave your iPhone in the sun and get a free charge. Leo will love it, I know. It's the first green cell phone. Within 10 years all the gadgets will be dependent on large quantities of radiation.
'till the batteries crap out...
Check out a study called "Dust to Dust" for an in depth analysis on how dirty "green tech" actually is when you factor in manufacturing and disposal costs.
Again - try to build a supply chain that feeds a solar panel plant that all runs on solar energy and tell me how much those panels cost...
Cheap oil has been a subisdy for our lifestyles, that when taken away, will likely not be coming back.
repost for those who just don't get it yet..
Government is the cause of expensive energy ..period.
as always and as Ron Regan said" Government is the problem"
we have plenty of nat gas which could run our cars and such for 200 yrs
we have worlds largest supply of coal which could provide electricity for our electric cars
we could build more nuke plants
we could drill where we know there is oil
on north slope what stops us..Fed gov
biggest problem to a low cost energy future
is government by socialist fascist oligarchs
We got it the first time, you're an idiot! Rather than blovating stupid slogans, how about settling down for an actual logic-based discussion?
WTF bother, I've got more meaningful things to do than to fight Bernaysians!
Thanks. Next time, do it in ALL CAPS so we know you're serious.
CNBC Cretan....the difference is I'm sitting in Alpine,NJ in my beautiful library just up the road from CNBC. Where are you sitting?
Nothing but Flowers has always been my choice as the Peak Oil theme song.
And Yes, Peak Oil WAS real, Past Tense.
If you think it is a Leftist Plot.... well, The next ten years you will have a learning experience like no one before
Jim,
Why so whiny today? Do you have any constructive solutions? No? Then STFU. +1 for your dropping Talking Heads. -1 for knowing who is on Dancing with the Stars while bashing it in the previous sentence.
Kunstler
Kunstler
Kunstler
Kunstler
Kunstler
Have we reached peak Jim Kunstler yet?
We can all react angrily, when the core processes providing our very livelihood are threatened. I see this as now being the case. I do have lots of dark moods. I am actually taking steps to change, and seek to be of use to others also. My kids are now 17, 19. 20 and 21.
This is serious. We should prepare this time, not coast along with the flock. If we complain about the sheeple being blind, but still do exactly what the blind sheeple do, we are the worse fools.
It is too late for blame. There is no particular justice to be had, and we might not like it if there were.
Here is The Oil Drum link, the very best industry/petroleum engineer kind of site.
http://www.theoildrum.com/
Today I'm trying to figure out where I would have to be, and what I'd have to have done ahead of time, to live in a world where solar flares, like the ones that melted the telegraph wires a century ago, crashed everything. Thought question? Maybe more than that.
Read "One Second After," subscribe to "Backwoods Home," and get to prepping!
ON INVESTING: "If you cannot guarantee for you and your loved ones 2,000 calories per day without relying on supermarkets, a major revision of your overall "investing" strategy is in order."
"Prepping: An Important Part of a Healthy Lifestyle"
I should have put this all together.
What is it like to live with the bare minimum, but still have technology of some sort? This Spanish "Sunseed" eco-village was started in 1986, as a dry land sustainable living project. To me, the most interesting part of this is not the nifty solar reflecting cooker, but the interview which follows the guy who processes and recycles as fertilizer, the "humanure" from the "North Vietnamese style" 2 hold latrine. Yeah, I ain't used to reality much anymore. I've been pretty sheltered by petro-world. Maybe I'll just blow my brains out.
I guess the link would help.
"Humanure" "North Vietnamese style dual hold composting latrine"
http://www.livinginthefuture.org/index.php/5
More on humanure:
http://journeytoforever.org/compost_humanure.html
As a farmer I can appreciate nutrient reclaimation/recycling.
The laws of thermodynamics
1. Energy can be neither created nor destroyed. It can only change forms. = You can't win.
2. No process is possible whose sole result is the transfer of heat from a body of lower temperature to a body of higher temperature = You can't break even.
3. As a system approaches absolute zero, all processes cease and the entropy of the system approaches a minimum value. = eventually we all lose.
See, this is where education has totally let us down.
Most people do not know; 1) there are universal laws that operate in the universe universally and it doesn't matter who you are, 2) that the laws of physics cannot be repealed by Congress nor can they be ignored because "they just don't seem right", 3) that fighting against the laws of the universe actually consumes more energy than you get from just going along with the program, and 4) if any of the above were not true, someone besides you neighbor working in his garage with a soldering iron with parts from RadioShack would have noticed. Seriously.
You'd think this was all pretty obvious to people. But thinking that, you'd be wrong.
This is the fundamental problem with empathy. We can only picture ourselves in someone else's shoes, not actually capture their brain and see the world through it [artists (and subject verb agreement) aside]. I have a problem shutting off my brain... most people seem to have the opposite problem. Some motherfuckers just have to try and ice skate uphill...
eventually, a collective day of reckoning happens that tends to cleanse much of our apathy, incompetence, and ignorance. The clock is ticking as we write. The sad part is, that same clock will tick again... probably before our lives are over.
Damn. That made more sense than I think I can handle at the moment.
You sure you got the right blog?
The concept of "progress" as an inevitable product of the human condition is a false concept manufactured by society given the temporary gift of temporarily abundant cheap energy.
It will be very dissappointing for many people to come to grips with the possibility that "Star Trek" and "The Jetsons" were ultimately fantasies that we will never realize.
What is this? All the sudden ZH is sounding -- I don't know -- all sensible and reasonable and stuff. It's almost like people are starting to -- help me out here -- oh yeah think.
Man wtf is up with that? Am I in the right place? Hello?
And you're a lefty-commie-fag wanting to take away my god-given right to have a flying car!
</sarcasm [off]>
For every action, there should be an equal and opposite reaction, but we're too busy watching tv and eating Cheetos to react.
I want my, I want my, I want my Es You Vee !
What an absolute ridiculous crock to think that less caloric intake, better gas mileage (smaller vehicle), and less stuff in general, is by necessity BAD. Or that you would be poorer.
You could actually be healthier, wealthier and wiser.
Well now, if you've crossed the Rubicon to that degree already, then you might be ready for a bicycle.
Get an electric, they are really cool. And you can still have some of that zoom-zoom thing going for you.
And this week only for $4K I'll build you a copy of my custom BlackBird Heavy Cruiser with 36 volt drop-the-hammer powertrain and new "WTF was that" styling! It's black, it's heavy, it's fast, it's like evil made iron. It's dat shit fo shizzle. It's a BlackBird!
Ha, another commie-govt pig! How dare you force me to not engage in mindless consumerism! There's plenty for everyone, no matter how much, no matter for how long, and no matter for how many! It's all the <environmentalist/govt officials/lefties> who lie to us, telling us that it's not so! Sarah Palin is right- let's "Drill Baby Drill," so that we can turn that 90% downward revised Alaskan oil to 0%!
</sarcasm [off]>
Dandy Don was more succinct when he'd sing, 'turn out the lights, the party's over!'
It is really amazing to me how unreadable the comments section of this site becomes whenever the idea of peak oil is discussed. Those that are adamant believers in peak oil believe with such intense zeal that the only potential outcome is a complete economic crash.
A statement was made early in the thread of of why I do not believe it will be a sudden intense crash like so many peak oil advocates suggest.
As posted by Pants McPants
"Thank you for pointing this out. I don't deny peak oil per se, but feel the pricing mechanism (to the extent it is not manipulated) is the single best indicator of whether or not we are running out of oil. The best way to measure oil price is to base it on another commodity like gold....or just adjust for inflation."
I think many people who are on the side of a complete crash have a very limited knowledge of how markets operate and the fundamental ideas of how scarce resources allocations change in the face of increasing scarcity. I have heard from some peak oil advocates that this normal pricing and allocation of resources is flawed when it comes to oil because countries are claiming to have much larger reserves than they actually have resulting in prices which would be considered below market rates if all the information was readily known, however there is no confirmation of this information.
I think that it is possible to believe that we are going to be facing a greater level of demand in comparison to the supply of oil while thinking that it does not have to result in a huge economic collapse and a complete return to agrarian society as so many peak oil advocates insist. Will this transition be painful? Of course. Will many goods and services that are widely used today be consider a waste of resources and no longer persued? Of course. However, these things can occur without a complete collapse of the modern form of life.
And JADR, who the fuck are you? See you in church on sunday, or do you prefer saturday night mass?
I am glad that you are here for the exchange of ideas and information in order to have a clearer picture of the world around us. I am simply a person who approaches every issue with an open mind and lots of questions. I don't have any agenda other than increasing my own personal knowledge and perhaps the knowledge of others through the exchanges I have with other users of the site.
Look, in many of the comment sections of articles on this site there is a lively debate between people of difering viewpoints. Sometimes these exchanges of information get disrupted by people with no intention to learn anything but to simply make a post that reaffirms their own beliefs and belittles the holder of the opposing viewpoint without actually addressing any of the substance of said viewpoint. While this happens occasionally in the more market based articles, it seems to be the only sort of comments posted in peak oil articles.
Please read the post you made. Is there anything constructive at all? Do you address a single issue that you find fault with in my post? Are you really contributing in any meaningful way to the Zerohedge community?
That was a candid and well-reasoned comment.
No really, it was.
I want you to think of one additional thing, however. Maybe it works into your conceptualization, maybe not.
Let's start with a simple idea. We are trapped.
That's the short. Here's the long:
People wind up in traps, not always of their own making, where they cannot reason a way out. They are too confused, too frightened, too stoggy, or just too stupid. The "peak oil" story is just such a trap. In the Western world we've been living off oil for 2 or 3 generations, and coal before that. Our racial memory can hardly remember a time when we did not have fossil fuels, in particular oil. We have built our world around this, literally. Our entire world, from food to medicines to houses. And we cannot imagine it not being there and we cannot imagine replacing our current way of life with any other way of life. We simply cannot wrap our brains around it.
The major thrust of most of the "peak oil" story is not that we will run out of oil some day on a Tuesday, just like that. The real issue is that we will delay and obfuscate and hum and haw and dither and waste time burning through the last of the oil that can be gained easily from friendly nations and without warfare. And some have argued (I think correctly) that the global situation being what it is, we are already well past that stage.
What then happens is truly tragic; you end up using all the oil resource you do have trying to secure or locate oil you will need to maintain what you think is your unalterable way of life, thereby dooming your way of life faster than if you had simply learned to do with less and maybe do with something else.
You don't even need a complete crash. You use all your oil finding oil. You seem to have plenty, there just never seems to be any available for anything other than securing or finding more of the same.
That's why it's a trap. That's why we are in it. We built the trap around ourselves for nearly 200 years, the trap feeds and houses us. The trap is familiar, comfortable, well-worn like your favorite pair of sneakers.
But it's still a trap. We cannot get out. We don't know where to start, and frankly we would rather not bother.
That would all be fine if there wasn't a down side. There is of course a down side.
When you are trapped you cannot move. That's fine as long as you do not have to move. When you cannot move and you do have to move -- to move on or get out of the way of something -- then you are done. You no longer go forward. The race continues without you. Because you were trapped with no escape and had to leave the race.
We appear so trapped within the coal and oil mental fog I seriously do not see a way to extricate ourselves. The bad things that will come from being trapped will simply come, we will be hit by them, and we will either somehow emerge on the other side or we will evaporate as a people. But we will take one path or the other as individuals, by luck and by pluck, and not as a nation. Each with our own bomb shelters and MREs and gold bars and lead and barbed wire, but not as Americans. The trap might not kill all of us, or even most of us, but I think it will easily kill America.
What Cougar said...
Can you explain how this will happen in conjunction with the pricing of oil. Look I am not trying to simply bash the peak oil theory but I am truly interested in how it would actually play out. I happen to be of the belief that as the price increases oil will continued to be used specifically for the uses in which it has no real substitutes while the non necessities will either find substitutes or the good/service may simply fade away until energy is available on that scale once again.
Nobody knows how it will play out. One line of thought is that producers will test the willingness of consumers to pay any price, and will then hold prices at a level that will not promote a serious look at alternatives. We are currently in this phase. The producers can hold this price forever until a real shortage allows them to sell product at any price they desire. The market forces you speak of simply do not function against a cartel.
As for what is necessary, the American people have not been asked as yet to address that. It appears unlikely that Americans will give up any of the things that currently have us in a trap, such as suburbia and freeways just to name two. And in fact, Americans just bought a car company as a symbol of our commitment to automobiles. And even if Americans did wake up one day and decide to change, those changes will run up against sunk costs in roads, cities, schools and housing at the very time that oil is priced 400% over historical levels and government spending is 200% in the red. You can say these things will "fade away" of their own until alternatives can emerge, but that spells massive pain for scores of millions of people in America alone. I can promise you that if American's were told that the suburbs and freeways would need to fade away for an indefinite period there would be blood in the streets. Every day spent dithering over the matter is one less day in which to extricate ourselves from this trap.
There is no passive way out. We simply cannot sit back and rely on politicians, corporations and oil cartels to do the right thing for Americans. That approach would be laughable if it weren't already so irresponsible. We must start digging out, and quickly, and without a lot of clinging to outmoded patterns of thought.
Mythical solutions and alternatives can be proposed, but unless they are actionable now and in the current environment of denial, fraud and bankruptcy, we're toast. I don't know how else to put it.
Cougar,
What you said, with Richard Heinberg narrating.
300 years of fossil-fueled growth in 300 seconds.
http://www.postcarbon.org/support/handsondeck
From the postCarbon institute.
REALLY good.
[Standing Clapping]
An Excellent story of where we are, and I agree with your last paragraph completely. My thoughts exactly.
Our way thru the passage is as individuals and hopefully families.
Fare Thee Well Cougar...
Ah, someone from the soft-landing crowd, a "peacemaker."
Just one question to ask: given that the System is totally dependent upon growth, and that its growth is totally pegged to readily available/plentify/cheap energy, how do you figure that it can sustain a [likely/highly probable] decline in energy when that is directly equated with growth, the very thing that this System requires?
I'd have to argue against your premise. The existing System will crash in a hard way. And by "crash" I mean that I believe that there will be a tipping point from whence it then becomes a filing in history's dust bin.
Another problem with the slow-slide hypothesis is that it would likely retain the same people in power, the same people who helped get us into this mess in the first place.
Peak oil ain't shit.
JESUS SAVES!
GOD BLESS AMERIKA!
MMMMM....VELVEETA....
Allow me to introduce you to my friend James Kunstler. The two of you would have a lot to talk about, I'm sure.
Don't forget to introduce him to ArnoldsImage too.
Amazing what happens starting at the last comment and reading backwards.
It actually starts to make sense.
I did the same thing. Same results. Life seems to do that a lot; you often learn more coming into the end of an argument rather than the beginning. Everything is on the table, is why.
You must get around the question.
Get AROUND the fossil fuel/solar/wind bullshit. These all have HUGE limitations. Energy flux density. Compare the above crappy energy flux density with fusion.
Nuclear Power as a bridge until Fusion
It's about amitorization and insurance. Both can be legislated to DRASTICALLY reduce the cost of building the plants. Building the plants is the majority of the cost, not running it (sans insurance).
But you have to spend hundreds of billions on THAT, FUSION and Nuclear power plants, not bailouts.
1. Biden initiates Article 25 section 4 on Lunatic NerObama
2. Glass-Steagall
3. NAWAPA
I've heard all the stuff about oil being created in the mantle, huge reserves had big depths beneath the ocean, that solar and wind will save us, and none of it fucking matters. We must go FAR beyond these toddler's toys.
Again
Nuclear ----> Fusion (and fusion arc)
But first we need
1. Article 25 section 4'ed NerObama's ass
2. Glass-Steagall
3. NAWAPA
Space program, mag-lev, etc as well, but prioritize we must.
No Rand 'fucking fascist' Paul, Or John 'I need four pills of Viagra merely to hope for a "john wayne bobbit style" Boehner, or Sarah 'DUMB FUCK' Palin, NerObama, Nancy 'take it up the ass for the wrong team' Pelosi, Harry 'must be smoking something way stronger than' Reid, Eric 'deer in headlights whore' Cantor, Marko 'establishment Ricky Ricardo' Rubio, Bobby 'Bouche' Jindal, Ben 'Dover' Bernanke, Larry 'No winters only' Summers, 'Tiny' Tim Geithner, Valerie 'Queen of England' Jarrett, Jo 'Railroad tycoon (see rangel)' Bonner, Al 'dipshit loser captured queen of england-er is the real inconvenient truth' Gore, Faux news, MSNBC, CNN, cnbs ----or ANY of their (mentioned or millions I didn't) ass backwards ideologies spewed by captured political souls will give you the solutions that are ALREADY and for decades BEEN OUT THERE. They have no solutions. Just dipshit monetarist bloodsucking dead end (can you even call it?) plans.
Focusing on the wrong debate. The solutions are there. Take them or die needlessly.
1. Article 25, section 4 NerObama
2. Glass-Steagall (in full spirit...i'm specifically pointing to derivatives and bullshit mortgages)
3. NAWAPA
Metallica had a good song once......'and nothing else matters"
Cartologist by chance? Because, you're all over the map!
Once upon a time I was enamoured by fusion, but then the light-bulb went off! We've HAD massive amounts of cheap energy already, look what it's done! That we should all have access to unlimited energy, what do you think the results will be? Hint: take a look at the largest cities on the planet, lack of nature aside, one could hardly argue that more of that would be good; but that's exactly what we'd get.
It's more than just energy. Energy is what's used to manipulate physical resources. I'm kind of thinking that Mother Nature is starting to tire of our manipulations...
Ah, Fusion;
The power source of the Future
(and always will be)
After scanning this post...
I'm picturing a glass seagull, stuck in obama's ass, being held by a WOOKIE with some sort of aeon flux arc beaming out of it...
Out.
Iraqi Oil Production - Iraq sits on an estimated 115 billion barrels of crude oil reserves and much of the country is underexplored.
http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2010/11/17/Investor-gives-...
An oil-centric person should hope that the actual discovery of such oil is more successful than the finding of WMDs was!
So, someone want to do that math as to how long this oil would last at current rates of world consumption? Then with about 2% growth?
Also, who would be peforming the drilling and production. Are we talking Haliburton and BP?
...115 billion barrels of crude oil reserves...
Folks, if someone, like Cow, starts quoting Reserve quantities, Ignore them and walk away. Either they don't know anything about oil, or they are a troll.
Hey, Cow, Say I gave you a bank account with a Million, heck, Make that a BILLION dollars in it.
BUT,
At the same time told you that all you could ever draw out/use was $500 a month.
How rich are you really?
It's flow rate baby, Flow rate. We're eating 18+/- million barrels Per DAY in just the US.
Talk to me how well off we will be if Iraq could get 3 million bpd from that 115 BILLION in reserves?
(BTW any field will only retrieve about 40-60% of the reserve quantity)
You forgot to mention that HUGE Bakken field in the Dakota's producing something like a whopping 50,000+/- bpd...
"This concrete jungle is occupied by hundreds of thousands of uneducated, unmotivated, wards of the state. They live a bleak existence in bleak surroundings and depend upon subsistence payments from the depressed suburbanites to keep them alive. How will they survive in a post peak oil world? They won’t."
Sure they will. They have weapons and know how to use them.
And the energy to pull the trigger comes from? Got food?
Yes, yours. They will trade it for a piece of lead in your head, or mine for that matter. If the doomsday scenario of peak oil does come about (I believe in peak oil, but not peak mayhem), it will start in the cities with gangs fighting over the remaining resources. They will then start foraging where the the rest of the resources lie leaving destruction rather than construction in their paths. These are the underprivileged dependents of the state. There is no self-sufficiency there. It has been bred out for almost 3 generations. Don't expect them to start creating homesteads when the SHTF. They will continue with what they know best, value destruction.
Hmmm...
I wonder how people taste.
Probably like chicken.
Carnivores generally taste a lot more pungent and gamier than herbivores, and most of the meatstuffs we're accustomed to eating is slaughtered before reaching 2 years of age.
Given that, expect long pig to be VERY gamey, and VERY tough and stringy.
Fortunately, meat isn't an essential part of the human diet. Learn to love greens before it comes to that.
Peak oil or not, we cannot transition to a centralized, urban society. We have too many different types of people that simply will not tolerate living together.
I don't think that is going to be a big deal. If people have to live together then they will find a way.
Is it just me or did anyone else find it slightly amusing that he made that quote in the 1800s and here we are, with a higher standard of living than ever!
I'm not saying that peak oil isn't a fact. It's obvious that oil is becoming more difficult to obtain when you look at the depths deep sea wells are being drilled at but as long as we don't have some kind of huge shock, which I don't believe we will, then I think we will make 'a' transition.. possibly relying more on coal and natty gas in the medium term..
Economically, though I still think the USA's structural reliance on oil is the final nail in the coffin of the once great, now socialist superpower. You'll be coming back down to earth with a crash over the next 5 years.
Good luck Americans.
This is a great post... I'm still on the fence on peak oil, but I fully get the sentiment and have moved from being a total skeptic to learning everything I possible can about it.
What's really fascinating to ponder is who benefits/who gets creamed when the SHTF. It may be a generality, but I believe the McMansion dwellers and $50K BMW drivers are skee-rewed. They are soft and doughy... They have few if any skills in the self-sufficiency department. When the grocery store runs out of arrugula and top-shelf bottled water, look out. Their dollars will be worthless and they won't be able to give away their 52 in HDTV.
Many of the poor on the other hand may have exactly the skill sets to thrive. They are resourceful; They know how to bargain; they know how to make do... They can sew, repair, fix... They are comfortable with physical labor. Many (particularly developing world) are fully proficient in growing their own food on small plots of land. They know real value.
And the meek shall inherit the earth...
There really aren't two positions of facts. The ONLY fact is that we live on a finite planet, in which case there are finite resources. The only question is how much there is, and for how long (factoring in projections of rates of change [up or down] of consumption).
There's a reason why 2/3 of the world's population lives on $3/day or less, and that's because the world cannot support higher standards of [unsustainable] living for everyone. This number/trend will only increase on a per-capita basis (either through resource decline, population increase, or both). So, yes, the best hedge is to prepare for the most likely outcome- a more sustainable lifestyle. Lest anyone think that this is some socialist plot, guess again, nature doesn't like excesses: though it can be politicized, nature is the final dictator, nature bats last...
Lots of business and/or math majors didn't spend a lot of time in biology study.
The financiers are just trying to figure out how to pull "future sunlight earnings potential" into today's consumption. For certain with the right derivative modeling we can eat tomorrow's cattle today...
Haha... We are eating cattle from new fucking multiverses by now... But yeah man!
"When the grocery store runs out of arrugula and top-shelf bottled water, look out."
That's when the "Kobe" beef of cannibals will be set upon and consumed, before they lose any marbling.
There are a lot of good things to say about energy conservation and how oil built the US. But this author lost me with his teenage angst. Worse still was the reference to 150$ oil...nothing to do with supply & demand - all to do with trading & deregulation of brent crude...arg...
"Worse still was the reference to 150$ oil...nothing to do with supply & demand - all to do with trading & deregulation of brent crude."
Contrare! It has everything to do with supply and demand! WTF would anyone pay that much if there wasn't the demand? And, the very fact that it can be so influenced means that it in fact is highly sensitive.
But, I'd agree, the $150/bbl factor doesn't contribute to the overall trajectory of things. For MANY years I argued that focusing on price would wind up on the wrong side of the trade; the issue is affordability: is oil more or less affordable at $150/bbl when you're employed, vs. more or less affordable when it's $80/bbl and you're unemployed?
(Fingers in my ears) Na naa naa naa naa. I can't hear youuuuuuu.
Did you seriously just lump the Talking Heads in with "successful bands" like Britney freaking Spears? Dood, there are SO many things wrong with that, I can't even decide where to begin. I am terrified to press that link, as it probably leads to the sound of a one man band falling down an elevator shaft.
I really, really wish I didn't have to be the one to spoil it for all the frenzied 'oil-peak' crowd here, but there is still lots of oil to go around. Once oil becomes too expensive, people will drive less, carpool, find alternative transportation, etc., the economy will realign in a more sustainable way and all the hysteria here will be forgotten.
The military and agriculture and priority manufacturing will get oil, it's there, it's extractable, and it's cost effective.
'Oil-peaker' fantasy revolves around the doctrine that people cannot adapt.
If cave-men can kill all the mastodons then go on to sloths, we can figure out how to transport ourselves from A to B when oil gets pricey.
And the 'peakers' can't seem to imagine game changers like new tech. Cave men made fire, spear points and graduated to agriculture. Why can't we stumble only revolutionary or incremental advances?
Much more fun to froth at the mouth and declare doomsday. Goosebumpy blowhard peaker-heads.
The problem is that getting from a world with 747s to one with horse drawn carts is not going to be "easy" or "pleasent."
Betting on "new tech" is no different than betting on new supply. This is like always relying on finding change under the couch to provide gas money. "Hey, it's always been there when I looked before!"
Eventually you won't find enough to buy the gas you need. In this case, "adaptability" means you're walking to work - unless you live 20 miles away and then you're just plain fucked.
Funny that the most scientifically literate folks here are the one's ringing the bell the loudest... Maybe you should start listening to the folks who you are betting will save you.
Agree. As the world de-industrializes, we can expect to do more walking. But a lot of it will be done by mass transit, donkeys and mules and horses and bicycles.
People adjust. Disruption breeds adaptation.
If oil plays out over the next decades, prioritization will ensure essential services are not completely lost.
Will people die as a result? Probably. But peaker-heads aren't going to help anything by giving their lungs exercise. The system will only change through crisis.
War is the fly in the ointment, not fat lazy people learning to do with less and having to resort to manual labor. If we avoid war, transition to a more sustainable economy can be positive.
It doesn't have to turn into Bartertown. That's what the peaker-heads are screaming. We're just going to live differently, it won't be an unalloyed evil.
Your argument is not internally consistent. And where it is, it is cynical and bleak. I don't think there is anything the least wrong with "peaker-heads" raising an alarm that we are sailing full-canvas into uncharted, treacherous waters. In fact, if you think that is the case then saying so is the morally responsible thing to do. Sitting back and figuring you'll survive on your MREs long enough to emerge a winner is reprehensible, childish and uncivilized.
As for not turning into Bartertown; unless you or someone else has a definitive process for preventing exactly that outcome, then Bartertown is a likely as anything else, and a lot more likely than unicorns shitting skittles. By a long shot.
I agree with your sentiment, but it doesn't reflect reality. At least not the one I observe. Oil is going to get a lot more precious but overall energy availability is not going to go to zero. I think the total-collapse crowd undermines the importance of the uncharted, treacherous waters message by saying "here be dragons."
...and I just got an IM from a friend who's pissed of that the pizza she ordered online is going to take 75 minutes to arrive. Hah!
75 min! If that's not a sign of the end, I don't know what would be.
Did she also call 911? Many do. :(
I agree that "total collapse" is unlikely, and whatever happens is not going to extinct the species.
But you talk about de-industrialization as if it just means giving up iPhones and the Internet.
Put simply, huge swathes of US territory cannot support their current populations when we can no longer afford petroleum-dependent farming and food-transport.
We'll survive. The US will come through everything OK. It'll just require the death of 50 million people or so and the relocation of another 100 million.
Say goodbye to most of SoCal, the NY/Newark/DC metro region, and South Florida.
Notice those are our big population centers?
"The US will come through everything OK. It'll just require the death of 50 million people or so and the relocation of another 100 million."
Welcome to Agenda 21.
Cougar
I'll take those lumps you pass out. But suck on this. Cassandra was turned into hash for her warnings. And they did not good what so ever. We only change by crisis. History 101.
We're all taking lumps. It's called "dialog". When the dialog stops, people start taking bullets.
I like Cassandra. She had guts, and if that's what you've got then that's how you roll. And you are right, seems like we do only change by crisis. But that's a problem too. A large enought crisis can also wipe us out. I'd like to try almost any other process than that going into this.
Thank you for playing, and do play again.
Y'all miss the very simple point . . .
When faced with change there are only two ways to go about it - voluntarily or involuntarily. In the case of sea change topics (like peak oil) I would subscribe that it be will damn near impossible to get people to change voluntarily, and I would add that we (the human species) most likely won't make it through such a sea change if we go the involuntary route. Or, at least in any recognizable form . . . thus isn't is wise enough to simply be aware of the things going around us and prepare to live very poorly whilst being happy to do it? It's easy if you try.
EOTW . . .
That's about as simple as you can make it. Get ready for simple living. No bang. Whimper. And we can make a hell of heaven or a heaven of hell.
Now don't go putting words in my mouth - there may be one hell of a BANG. The point I make is to put yourself in a position to be able to get out the way quickly days (weeks?) before it comes, survive through the acute turmoil, subsist as long as you need to (years?), and then work to rebuild the world in (hopefully) a better way.
Cougar
The answer may be incrementalism. Massive government projects waste vast resources. A lot of smart guys in their garages can have a powerful cumulative effect over time.
And remember the Kyoto Accord? In the US, CO2 gasses have declined at the rate prescribed by the accord, without government mandate. When people consult their own best interests things work out. Individual initiative seems to avoid the socio-sclerosis popping up all over the place these days.
And I'm not opposed to peaker heads saying what's on their minds. But shrillness is unproductive. I can yell loud as most anyone, but people seem to shy away. But if I just keep calmly repeating the same thing over and over, you'd be amazed how many people pay attention.
Nonetheless, in the case of something as fundamental as the basis of our society, oil, don't expect people to start running for the exits til they can't get gas and groceries. Changes are happening all over the place, in individual lives. My guess is that the slope of the oil-depletion curve and all the concomitant ramifications it implies will be gentle enough to keep significant disruption to a minimum.
But, as they say, everybody's got one.
He is correct that this society can't sustain itself in the long run without changing. Oil may even go up to the 200 or more mark because of our dollar collapsing and becoming the first world version of the peso at best.
YOU GUYS SOUND LIKE A BUNCH OF SISSIES. BIG DEAL. PEAK OIL...OOOHHHHH...BETTER HIDE UNDER THE COVERS. SUPPLY AND DEMAND WILL EQUALIZE EVERYONE AND THEN EVERYONE WILL THEN FIND THEIR NEW LEVEL OF EXISTENCE. WHY WORRY? ENJOY. PLENTY OF OTHER THINGS TO WORRY ABOUT TOO YOU KNOW. HOW ABOUT NUCLEAR WINTER, HUMANKIND ERADICATING GERMS, SOLAR FLARES KNOCKING OUT OUR TECHNOLOGIES, ASTEROIDS & COMETS DESTROYING OUR PLANET, SUPERVOLCANOES LIKE YELLOWSTONE PAST SCHEDULE TO BLOW (EVERY 600,000 YEARS...AND WE ARE ON OVERTIME NOW), DO I NEED TO GO ON? READ "A SHORT HISTORY OF NEARLY EVERYTHING" BY BILL BRYSON TO FIND THAT 99.9% OF ALL SPECIES THAT HAVE INHABITED THE EARTH ARE EXTINCT AND THAT WE ARE JUST FOLLOWING OUR OWN WALK OUT ON THE PLANK (ALSO LONG IN THE TOOTH NOW ACCORDING TO BRYSON). STOP WORRYING ABOUT ALL THIS BECAUSE IT IS QUITE NATURAL. IN THE MEANTIME WHILE WE ALL WAIT TO DIE, THERE ARE NO PROBLEMS, ONLY SOLUTIONS, SO GO WORK ON COLD FUSION OR SOMETHING SO WE CAN STOP TALKING ABOUT PEAK OIL.
HARD OF HEARING ARE YOU? ALL THE HOLLERING IS HARD TO READ. Thanks.
I hope this is true. The suburbs are a horrific model. Let them rot. Or better yet, turn them into section 8. It is inherently evil to place projects in the middle of a city, making the city more dangerous for most middle class families. I'm sure more families would like to move to the city, however they will not risk their safety or quality of schools for a shorter commute. If you guys are more interested in sprawl history I suggest reading up on Robert Moses, the fuckwad who basically gave birth to car and highway culture (he's the asshole that had plans to pave over Central Park).
I am curious how it will pan out, re: riots etc. I don't think it will be an orderly transition. I live near Little Haiti. Once peak oil rolls around I reckon that will no longer be the case.
sounds like all of those episodes of little house on the prairie and the waltons, that i had no choice but to watch as a kid, may end up paying off after all..... hehe....