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Guest Post: Trigger Points, Black Swans, And Other Unpleasant Realities

Tyler Durden's picture




 

By Giordano Bruno of Neithercorp Press

Trigger Points, Black Swans, And Other Unpleasant Realities

An avalanche is not an “event”, it is an epic; a series of smaller
events drifting and compacting one after another until the contained
potential energy reaches an apex, a point at which it can no longer be
managed or inhibited. A single tremor, an inopportune echo, an
unexpected shift in the winds, and the entire icy edifice, the product
of countless layered storms, is sent crashing down the valley like a
great and terrible hand. In this way, avalanches in nature are quite
similar to avalanches in economies; both events accumulate over the long
span of seasons, and finally end in the bewildering flash of a single
moment.

The problem that most people have today is being unable to tell the
difference between a smaller storm in our economy, and an avalanche.
Very few Americans have ever personally witnessed a financial collapse,
and so, when confronted with an initiating event, like the stock market
plunge of 2008, they have no point of reference with which to compare
the experience. They misinterpret the crash as a finale. Untouched,
they breathe a sigh of relief, unaware that this is merely the beginning
of something much more complex and threatening.

So, without personal experience on our side to help us recognize a
trigger point incident; the catalyst that brings down our meticulously
constructed house of cards, how will we stand watch? Will we miss the
danger parading right in front of our faces? Will we be caught
completely off-guard?

The key in avoiding such a scenario is in identifying the primary
pillars of our particular financial system, and tracking them carefully.
Once we are able to cut through the haze of distractions and minor
events promoted mostly by the mainstream media, and focus on that which
is truly important, our ability to foresee danger greatly increases.
But what are the crucial mainstays of our economy, and what kind of
disastrous occurrence could possibly bring them tumbling down?

Mortgage Crisis Redux

The health of property markets is a vital indicator of the stability
of almost any country, but most especially in the United States. The
reason why the bust in mortgage values is so dangerous to our particular
economy is because Americans allowed themselves to become completely
dependent on debt in order to sustain their consumption. We have been
surviving on mortgage loans and Visa cards for nearly two decades! The
fantastical boost in stocks and retail during the late 90’s and early
2000’s was an illusion built on artificially low interest rates and easy
credit. Of course, it doesn’t help that corporate interests outsourced
most of our industrial foundation to the third world leaving us with an
emaciated jobs market utterly reliant on the service sector. Many
people were given few options besides taking loan after loan using homes
they couldn’t afford in the first place as collateral.

Regardless, without the support of solid industry and innovation in a
system to supply employment opportunities and create true wealth (not
debt), we have only “derivatives” and toxic securities, worthless bits
of paper representing liabilities that will never be repaid. Now that
these contracts are known to be worthless, there is only one thing left
to prop up the economy; fiat printing of the U.S. dollar.

Back in 2008, I called the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a
“black hole” of debt which would siphon the last remaining vestiges of
wealth from the American taxpayer, and this is exactly what has
happened. Every quarter, MSM analysts claim the housing market has
“bottomed” and is ready for a rebound, yet, every quarter the mortgage
crisis gets just a little bit worse. It is now projected that Fannie
and Freddie could end up costing taxpayers over $1 Trillion:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37982580/Fannie_Freddie_Bailout_Could_Cost_Taxpayers_1_Trillion

This is a conservative estimate in my opinion, considering both firms
comprise about $5 Trillion of the U.S. housing market, and mortgage
defaults have continued unabated for nearly three years now. Until this
past month, banks had accelerated their foreclosure rates by 25%:

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/09/16/homes-lost-foreclosure-percent/

The more homeowners declare bankruptcy, the more money U.S. citizens
will have to pay to bailout banks and mortgage companies to keep them
afloat, and the more the private Federal Reserve will create fiat
dollars to continue this process. However, a new development has made
this bad situation even more volatile.

In any major economic collapse, there is always another
Jack-in-the-box. This time, it’s in the home foreclosure process
itself. The Attorney General’s office in every state is now
investigating banks like JP Morgan, Citigroup, Well’s Fargo, Bank Of
America, etc, for flawed foreclosure documents, “automated”
foreclosures, and the signing of foreclosure papers without properly
ensuring their accuracy:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-18/u-s-bank-earnings-face-mortgage-scrutiny-as-49-billion-in-value-vanishes.html

These four banks control over 55% of the billing and collections
market in U.S. home loans, while Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac usually own a
piece of every mortgage these companies are involved in. Any sign of
malfeasance on the part of these corporations may indicate widespread
imbalances and fraud. Such news could trigger a flight of investors
away from companies tied to this relapse in mortgage uncertainty, along
with renewed bank failures in the vein of Lehman Bros. In response,
some states have completely frozen home foreclosures. Florida, site of
the third highest foreclosure rates in the country, will continue it’s
freezing of home seizures for at least another month:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-25/florida-foreclosures-still-on-hold-as-banks-say-they-ve-resumed-seizures.html

There are two very big problems with this situation. First, while I am
all for Americans keeping their homes and making life difficult for the
bankers, a foreclosure freeze creates the possibility of a heightened
banking collapse, which could lead to quantitative easing programs on a
scale that dwarfs previous measures. This means even more tax dollars
going into the “too big to fails”. Therefore, globalist banks actually
BENEFIT from a foreclosure upheaval. It could also lead to a direct
bailout of the mortgage market itself. In either case, the response
will be more massive printing of fiat, and a catastrophic devaluation of
the dollar.

Second, foreclosures now make up over 30% of all home sales in this
country. In some states, including California, foreclosures make up
nearly half of all home sales:

http://www.sacbee.com/2010/09/30/3069035/foreclosures-make-up-nearly-half.html

If you think home sales are in trouble now, imagine what will happen
if all foreclosure sales stopped in their tracks for several months or
more! Poof! 30% to 40% of the housing market gone, just like that! I
have no doubt that this would inspire considerable outflows of
investment from the U.S. economy, especially by foreign nations. This
is already happening in certain sectors. Central Banks across the world
recently dumped a record $57 billion in U.S. Agency bonds. These bonds
support such entities as Fannie and Freddie, and an expanded property
market disaster would greatly damage their value:

http://jsmineset.com/2010/09/16/central-banks-dump-57-billion-of-us-agency-debt/

Interestingly, this dump began almost right before the
“foreclosure-gate” issue arose, which suggests that some central banks
were aware that the mortgage crisis in the U.S. would hit a new stage
before it even happened.

Essentially, any announcement of an extended foreclosure freeze would
set in motion a domino effect that is likely to contribute to
systematic failure in our economy, and most especially, in the now
precarious health of the dollar. News of a nation-wide freeze without
an announcement of a time-frame should be considered by those in the
Liberty Movement as a neon red warning sign that the situation is about
to get ugly.

Stock Market Bubble Burst

So much fiat is being pumped into banks and the Dow by the Treasury
and the Federal Reserve it is difficult to tell what is truly going on
in the stock market. There are, though, certain signs we can look for
to gage when a stock bubble implosion could take place. One method is
to track the cash holdings of mutual funds.

When mutual funds have a lot of cash on hand, it often means they
ready to funnel new capital into markets when the time is right. When
mutual funds are very low on cash, this might signal that the market is
ready to begin an extensive sell off. Currently, mutual fund cash
levels have hit an all-time record low:


http://pragcap.com/mutual-funds-are-all-in

This shows one of two things; either the stock market is inflated to
its peak, and mutual funds have invested as much as they can to support
it, or, mutual fund participants are beginning to pull their money out
of their portfolios, in which case, the stock rally is built almost
entirely on infusions from other sources (the Federal Reserve). The
latter is supported by reports of an exodus of investors from mutual
funds since August of this year:

http://www.kiplinger.com/news/article.php/retail-investors-pull-money-from-mutual-funds-is-19929663.html

Both problems reveal a severe weakness in stocks, one that could
instigate an eventual Dow drop on par with the consecutive market dives
of the Great Depression.

Another signal of a stock collapse is the “net short positions” of
Commercial (corporate) traders in the market. When commercials short
stocks heavily, it means they are betting on a substantial fall in
market value. Being that many of these larger banks and hedge funds
have an “inside track” on market information, they are usually correct
in their predictions. Current net short positions of commercial traders
have hit levels higher than any in the past 5 years:

http://pragcap.com/is-the-smart-money-getting-short

In my view, the next extended market drop we see is liable to be the
last. Today’s economy is so unstable, and based on so much faith rather
that fundamentals, any uncertainty in the Dow will pull the rug out
from under us. A sudden 20% to 30% loss in stock values would be more
than enough to create a trigger point in the destabilization of the rest
of our financial system and should be taken very seriously by those in
the Liberty Movement. This could happen over a period of months, or in a
series of flash crashes lasting a matter of days.

Escalation Of Currency Conflict

Recently, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced that the U.S.
had no intention of devaluing the dollar for export advantage over the
rest of the world, and that the G20 should work on “aligning” their
Forex positions to avoid wars over currency devaluation. This is
fascinating, mainly because this statement is completely counter to what
Geithner has been saying for the past couple years. Did ‘Tiny Tim’
grow a heart, or a brain, and realize the currency war rhetoric is a
disaster waiting to happen for the United States? I really doubt it.

Such talk is typical in the midst of G20 conferences, but rarely if
ever does this translate into any positive action by globalists.
Currency devaluations, including that of the dollar, are well underway,
and lip service paid by Geithner is not going to change anything. I’m
sure he’s well aware of this.

The manner in which the currency war plays out hinges on a few key
events. First, legislation put forward in Congress to institute trade
duties on China is awaiting approval before the end of this year. The
passage of this legislation WILL bring on the full force of a currency
fight, and probably the dumping of U.S. T-bonds by China. Second, the
Treasury Department trade report on China, which is expected to label
the country as a currency manipulator, has been delayed even though it
is required by law to be posted every 15th of October. The delay will
probably last until after the November elections:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/7249676.html

If this report is released with the intention of accusing China of manipulation, expect escalation.

Finally, a further loss in the value of the dollar index, perhaps
below the 74 point resistance level, could also result in an increased
dumping of U.S. T-bonds by foreign central banks. Those looking for
preemptive warning of collapse should keep a close eye on the dollar
index as well as foreign liquidations of T-bond reserves.

Escalation Of Resource Conflict

Most people are aware of the import and export implications of a
global trade war. Tariffs and duties are put in place, prices on
foreign goods skyrocket, international investment tanks, and everyone
becomes generally miffed with everyone else. It’s a perfect recipe for a
full scale financial meltdown. However, one factor that is
particularly detrimental to the U.S. is the use of vital resources by
other nations as leverage to initiate a breakdown in the foundations of
our domestic trade.

The U.S. imports everything and produces almost nothing. Trade
duties on China would cause swelling prices on nearly all products,
being that most items we buy are made in China, but this is nothing
compared to the resource and commodity valuations that will follow,
along with the scarcity of materials withheld by governments out of
spite.

Oil, for instance, will obviously be the first resource used as a
trade weapon. For now, crude oil is holding at around $80 a barrel, but
this will not last much longer. The dollar’s world reserve currency
status is intact for the moment, and oil is traded across the planet
almost exclusively in dollars. A dollar devaluation, even in the face
of commodity market manipulation, would eventually lead to an oil spike.
A trade war would exacerbate this scenario by reducing the steady flow
of oil into the U.S. OPEC members are now calling for oil to rise to
$100 a barrel to counter weakness in the dollar. This would bring us
back to $3 to $3.50 a gallon gas, if crude values and supplies remain at
that level:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-15/opec-members-seek-100-a-barrel-oil-as-sliding-dollar-cuts-real-revenue.html

I suspect with added currency instability, $150 a barrel oil is
conceivable within the next 6 months. Two years ago, high gas prices
frustrated Americans, but were still bearable. Today, after two years
of static 20% real unemployment and trillions in lost savings, $150 oil
would crush what’s left of this economy.

Another good example of resource control would be China’s domination
of “rare earth”, a metals material necessary for the manufacture of most
electronics and some military defense products. China regulates about
97% of the rare earth market, and is beginning to hoard the needed ore
(while claiming they will not) in response to economic collapse and
trade decoupling:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-20/china-pledges-to-maintain-rare-earth-sales-official-says-exports-may-rise.html

China’s exports of rare earth fell by 72% in July. The price of rare
earth metals has increased seven-fold in the past six months.
Considering the fact that one of the few industries left in the U.S.,
computer chips, relies entirely on this resource, its use as a trade
weapon is evident.

While mushrooming commodity prices are a good sign of inflation in
the dollar, in some cases they can also reflect the first stages of
trade combat. Tracking them can give you precious insight into more
insidious hazards just over the horizon.

Quantitative Easing To The Max

How many bailouts does it take to get to the center of a
hyperinflationary collapse? Three? Or maybe just one continuous
undefined fiat injection…

Federal Reserve officials meeting on November 2-3 will decide yet
again how much money they will create out of thin air to prop up the
economy. Some estimate that the Fed will pour around $300 billion into
the system, while others are predicting around $2 trillion. I should
mention, though, that whatever sum the Fed openly announces it will be
irrelevant to those who understand how the central bank operates. The
bailouts begun in 2008 never really stopped, and it’s impossible to say
how much currency exactly the Fed has Xeroxed into circulation without
taking a look at their books, which they won’t let anyone do.

The announcement will matter psychologically to those investors who
don’t understand the shadowy nature of the Fed, and blindly believe
whatever they are told.

A statement by Ben Bernanke of $300 billion or less in quantitative
easing will probably have a calming effect on the fall of the dollar, at
least for a short time, and a minor drop in the value of gold. An
announcement of $1 trillion or more in easing will cause greater dollar
instability, and a spike in gold. What mainstream investors will not
comprehend is that ANY stimulus announcement is a very bad sign for the
coming year. The Fed has been tossing dollars into the financial system
at will without oversight and without public approval. Why would they
now decide to make their program public? I believe the easing is meant
to preempt a trigger point event in the markets yet to take place, as
well as set the stage for further global currency tensions. The money
creation that starts in early November will be an extension of that
which has been going on unabated since 2008, but it will also herald a
new phase, one which brings a frightening velocity to matters.

Austerity In A Land Of Excess

A society which has lived for a long time in a state of economic
uncertainty and then faced with austerity measures is going to have to
hurdle some serious obstacles to survive. On the other hand, a society
that has grown used to a luxurious standard of living by comparison, and
then forced into austerity, is liable to freak out padded-room style
and make an unprecedented mess of things.

I honestly cannot imagine the full extent of an American reaction to
austerity. Cuts in social security, medical care, unemployment welfare,
food stamps, education, police, military spending, government jobs,
etc, would at the very least result in rioting, not to mention leave a
lot of starving, homeless people in its wake. This is, of course, what
happens when you encourage dependency on government and a lack of self
sufficiency in a culture. The life of the nanny state is often assumed
eternal, even when its debts and currency are blatantly unsustainable.

According to Citigroup’s chief economist, “savage austerity” is already in the making for the U.S.:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-20/-savage-austerity-is-in-u-s-s-future-citigroup-s-buiter-says-tom-keene.html

A proclamation of austerity measures would be a high profile trigger
point, sending shockwaves throughout our economy. Austerity would
likely be preceded by defaults in municipal debts in cities across the
country, as well as confiscation of employee pension funds. The
government may try to use greater fiat injections to avoid having to cut
certain services to the public, but some austerity will take place,
seeds that will grow over time as the dollar loses its reserve status
and its perceived value. Any sign of austerity in the U.S. is a sign of
total collapse, period.

Black Swans Come Home To Roost

A “Black Swan” is an event which defies predictability and affects
the very nature of a system in unexpected ways. A terrorist attack (or
false flag), which causes investor sentiment to falter and stocks to
disintegrate, would be an example of a Black Swan. Surprise cataclysms
are in most cases only possible when there are already acute imbalances
in a system (which have been ignored by the public) present to act as
tinder for the fire. Like a twisted game of Jenga, global banks have
pulled numerous supports from our financial structure, causing it to
teeter on the brink of oblivion. It is indeed extremely vulnerable to
unanticipated incidents.

There is absolutely no guarantee that life tomorrow will be anything
like life today. Expectations of continuity and safety are a crutch for
those who lack the ability to adapt to changing circumstances.
Accepting the reality of possible upheaval is the first step in
preparing one’s self to weather unfortunate circumstances, or even to
prevent them. By recognizing trigger points in our economy, we can
remove the shock factor, and thus the teeth of the dilemma. By
familiarizing ourselves with the potential for danger, we steel
ourselves to its ferocity. Even the shadow of a Black Swan is nothing
to those who are intuitive, informed, savvy, and capable. The goal for
those of us in the Liberty Movement is to encourage these qualities in
our friends, family, and neighbors, until their ability to foretell
financial and social jeopardy is carefully honed.

One thing is certain; we cannot go on simply waiting for misfortune
to strike like lightening. We cannot play at life, pretending all is
well until the final curtain falls, and acknowledging the need for
vigilance could go a long way in seeing that it never does….

 

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Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:17 | 686829 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You want a trigger point?

You want a Black Swan?

I'll give you one.  How about some new Congress critters who actually do NOT betray their voters.

The Tea Party folks are being swept in amid voter outrage at government finances.

Well, lets see some integrity.  Let's see them refuse a Debt Ceiling Increase.

ZERO.  NO DEBT CEILING INCREASE.  EVER.

Instantly spending will be limited to tax revenue.  It will be an instantaneous step to rational thought consistent with integrity.  

ZERO.  

I dare them to actually do what they were voted in to do.  They don't have to negotiate with the Senate.  They don't have to deal with VETO from Obama.

JUST REFUSE TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING.

 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:24 | 686849 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

and laugh at those who suggest it! YES!

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:19 | 687431 surfsup
surfsup's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNDn6SYTa7M&feature=player_embedded

x 50

 

OHIO AG CORDRAY "BANKS OPERATING ON A BUSINESS MODEL BUILT ON FRAUD"

 

 

 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:39 | 687475 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

and in nebraska a 22 year old has been charged with waterboarding his girlfriend.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 08:48 | 687844 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Don't worry, Dick Cheney said it was cool; she kinda looked like a terrorist or called one or something.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 10:18 | 687895 sweet ebony diamond
sweet ebony diamond's picture

Anybody interested in voting for the write-in candidate Tyler Durden this coming elections?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:33 | 686869 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

A man can dream...... a man can dream....

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 01:26 | 687658 G-R-U-N-T
Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:44 | 686894 CH1
CH1's picture

All good things, but what do you do if the TP Pubs fail you?

(IMHO, the odds are very high that they will.)

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:52 | 686900 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

That's exactly what this toner-gate is about.. The military complex needs to scare the newb congress folks into raising the roof.. as in no ceiling period..

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 14:48 | 689189 rocker
rocker's picture

That's exactly what this toner-gate is about... 

That is what HR 8791 is all about.  Unlimited anything. Including the destruction of the Bill of Rights. 

Done and passed on 2008.   Yup.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:55 | 686922 Shameful
Shameful's picture

It sure would be a black swan, because I could not even fathom seeing it.  After all it means less money for the military and can the neo-cons really allow that to happen?  Hell hope it happens, it would be wild!

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:22 | 686983 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Voting is consent to be governed. Don't do it.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:12 | 687423 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

I disagree.

Vote:  NONE OF THE ABOVE, or simply spoil your ballot.  It is the only no confidence vote available to us

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 10:51 | 687915 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

agreed Miles.   this is the only way to make a statement.    apathy is part of the game plan, don't buy into it.

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 11:49 | 688902 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Can I be Captain of RMS Titanic!!

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 11:54 | 688905 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Word up!

Okay, Miles, you don't want this, do you?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/None_of_the_above

In other words, "filled by appointment"

---

Collapse is on the way. Shrug!

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 03:57 | 718889 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

My dear amphibian, how much credibility would such an appointment have if a vast portion of the ballots cast were for NTA or were spoiled?

After a while even the farcical is seen for what it is.  It just needs a little help.  Imagine if that Nevada senate race had a 10% NTA vote rather than the 2% it did get..  And 2% is a lot without any real juice behind it.  Now imagine a 20%..  30% ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3O-KCdC5D4

Cheers and make my shrug a double

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:36 | 687474 Yits and the Yimrum
Yits and the Yimrum's picture

voting in your own slavery by the Demo-Rethug mafia is not a rational option.

 

I'd rather die than vote for these goons!

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:16 | 687721 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

There ARE other choices besides Republicons and Decepticrats (if not, then write yourself in!)

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 08:44 | 687840 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

DON"T VOTE?????

that is your esteem answer? 

Then you have NO RIGHT to express your opinion on any topic on this site or any other.

Perhaps you might like to live in Somila, there is no need to vote there.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 12:38 | 687985 jomama
jomama's picture

i pay taxes, i have every right to express my opinion.  i don't vote for the oligarchs because it doesn't make a damn bit of difference. but for local measures i do.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 20:51 | 688463 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

that "no right" to an opinion is a tired opinion in itself. . .

I'm afraid I'm with WaterWings on this one, though I honour every one's right to do what their conscience bids. . .

"voting" reinforces the "belief" that individuals are what's wrong with this "system, and that eventually you can vote yourself free and clear of them - I don't believe amrka's problems stem from bad voting choices, it goes back too far now and it is the SYSTEM that is broken/rotten/dead (your meme choice). . . it's like voting in a "new president" and expecting them to have any power to change what continues to happen. . . presidents are figureheads, lightning rods for all the whining and disappointment, they are well compensated actors under contract, replaceable ad infinitum (or until the system is bled dry and collapses).

but I realise this doesn't sit well with most, a sense of (seeming) helplessness - when in fact, you can turn that feeling into empowerment by removing yourself from believing in the whole mess, sooner rather than later, and turn your efforts to those you care about, rather than waste your e-motions hating what you cannot change.

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 11:51 | 688904 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

There's a first time for everyone:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIraCchPDhk

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:54 | 687060 cossack55
cossack55's picture

"I like the way you think. I'm going to keeping my eye on you"

     -sam kinison-

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:02 | 687601 Nine Pies
Nine Pies's picture

Back to School. Classic.

Sam Kinison and Rodney Dangerfield are both dead, though.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:29 | 687124 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

Your black swan is as wrong as the authors:

"A terrorist attack (or false flag), which causes investor sentiment to falter and stocks to disintegrate, would be an example of a Black Swan."

A Black Swan event is partially defined by a complete lack of knowledge of said event. A terrorist attack is a known event, known to the terrorist.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:28 | 687239 bonin006
bonin006's picture

It could be a Black Swan for the unexpecting victims, just not for the terrorist who planned it. As Taleb says, Thanksgiving is a Black Swan for the turkey, but not the farmer.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 21:37 | 687379 Xedus129
Xedus129's picture

ahh like Pelham 123 where Travolta makes $$$$$$ 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 21:57 | 687409 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

Outside of quantland Taleb doesn't know what he's talking about. Don't listen to him, that's a terrible analogy anyway.

That book needs a rewrite.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:23 | 687447 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

More like you need an IQ--it's a great book, and the revised version is even better.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:30 | 687569 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

I have no problem with Talib's black swan events...they have always been here, and always will be here. The problem with this whole scenario is that....well...so what? nobody can predict them with any kind of accuracy, so the only way to be 100% shielded from them is to do NOTHING. Which is precisely what I have done my whole life, not because of any fear of a black swan event, but because I understood from an early age that the whole system is rigged. But just think of what would happen if everyone chose the path I chose...we would not have an economy! Just be resigned that there will always be outlying events, and some people are going to be burned by them.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 01:20 | 687654 ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

ummm...HFT takeover...we all live in Quantland now. Taleb over Tarzan any day.

I think "that book" needs a re-read, by you.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:27 | 687450 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You have obviously not read Taleb's book.  The article is correct.

Taleb was the one to define the term; you can't re-define it to suit you.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 07:15 | 687767 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

When Tarzan hungry eats cute cuddly Racoon. Don't argue Tarzan.

Taleb Lebanese, knows nothing about Thanksgiving.

True Black Swan event is unknown to all. Randomness once influenced, no longer random. CIA, NSA, Mossad architects of terror, Faux Swans.

Tarzan says book needs rewrite, all Taleb talks about is walking, strolling and chatting. "The man does not know how to walk as good as I", "I am artist of strolling and chatting".

"I tried caveman diet". Tarzan invented caveman diet! Tarzan say rewrite!

Tarzan has new book, yea: "Fooled by Talebness".

Black Swan, 1.5 million copies sold @ $12/book for Taleb. Taleb laughs all the way to the bank, along the way stops at deli and eats turkey sandwich, muses "The Zheeple love me".

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:37 | 687137 DeltaDawn
DeltaDawn's picture

And all of us Zerohedgers should get off our asses (apologies to anyone who is actually doing anything) and go to D.C. and vocalize this loudly, bringing along anyone else we can drag there to do the same!

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:29 | 687455 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Why?  For a 5 minute flash news article showing what the MSM would consider a tin-foil-hat-wearing group (not mob) of people?   The resources can be directed more constructively -- or destructively.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:33 | 687458 Trifecta Man
Trifecta Man's picture

I agree with DeltaDawn.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:24 | 687618 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Been there, done that.  My son and I marched on 9/12/09 with over 500,000 other fed up Americans.  CSPAN and Fox covered it, MSM ignored it.

Next week we will throw some Democrats out on their asses which will get some attention, but we will still be living under BANKSTER RULE. 

The end game is near, now just trying to prepare to survive the collapse.  No FEMA camps or Superdomes for my family.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:46 | 687738 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Don't leave the game in the third innings FB. Battles don't always get won in the first skirmish. Live up to your name. Don't give up, ever. Thanks for your efforts in Washington, it was and is, most appreciated.

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 12:00 | 688909 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Thanks Al, but lately my feelings are more in tune with walstreetpro2 vs. Beck,Palin&Co.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NWFA6g2x-4

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 08:57 | 687850 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

if you don't count on anything, you won't be disappointed.

Just because everything is broken does not mean they can or will fix it.

Everyone forgets that politicians are by definition...politicians.  Promises are made to be broken or forgotten, that is it in a nutshell.

Capitol is not run by congress, "C" and "J" street runs it.  The end question is are they fighting each other behind the scene?

 

As for this article....lots of singular thinking here.  China sells UST ...to whom?  $100.00 oil when the world is drowning in oil now and $80 is known to be the upper dollar limit or the whole world  comes to a halt?  The dollar being thrown out the window...in favor of what someone please tell me?

The article is more hocus pocus speculation that is not well thought out when someone like me can poke holes in it.  I am tired of articles with fear and loathing as the basis, I want facts to go with my questions not rhetoric.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 11:11 | 687930 Wynn
Wynn's picture

agree. worst case scenarios are statistically improbable, yet many people fret and stew about things that will never come to pass.

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 10:53 | 688856 Stun Gun
Stun Gun's picture

Agreed, thank you for your efforts FB.

Personal security matters

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 12:05 | 688906 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

I think there may be some "longer range" problems that your stun gun may not solve.

http://www.pof-usa.com/p308/p30816.htm

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:21 | 687471 i-dog
i-dog's picture

What? ... all gather in the 10x10 'Free Speech Zone' down in Barry Farm and wave a placard? That should work!

FYI, even a 'Million Man March' in D.C. now will not change government policy.

We each need to work on individual state governments to exercise their constitutional rights and bring Washington down.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:07 | 687607 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

Maybe the TP brigade does something constructive, but I am not holding my breath.    Trying to change the Federal monster from this inside at this point is probably impossible.  In addition, trying to organize a national movement is prohibitively expensive.   Those who benefit from the status quo would bury any real movement under a mountain of marketing money.

The best chance is to organize on the state level.   To that end, why not push for a repeal of the 16th amendment?   The early rounds of this battle could be done on the state level.  Focus on a couple of states, and if they successfully pass the measure, the success would spawn viral movements in other states.

As a nation, we seem to have forgotten the virtues of trying to change government through Constitutional amendments.  Repeal #16 would be a good start.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:39 | 687261 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

i say "spend it all...just over there now."

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 21:07 | 687338 hangemhigh
hangemhigh's picture

CiO:

You want a trigger point?

You want a Black Swan?

I'll give you one.  How about some new Congress critters who actually do NOT betray their voters.

The Tea Party folks are being swept in amid voter outrage at government finances.

Well, lets see some integrity.  Let's see them refuse a Debt Ceiling Increase.

 

i hope you're right (left??) but the odds are that this is just another of the one party system's "change that you can believe in" hoaxes...............


Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:28 | 687510 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

First of all, they haven't been voted in. Second, they will not refuse to do anything as they all know already that the only real way to riches in this country are politics and religion. You think they are in this for the good of the country? I give you Sharon Angle, Christine O'Donnell and Rand Paul. Three dimwitted morons on parade that I don't want anywhere near Congress because I am going to leave it up to terrorists to get the ink cartridges properly in place. They could do us a big favor here and not leave us with those morons acting in the interest of this country. Blow up the building in session and we would all be better off. 

Oh, banking and lobbying--the other way to riches. Fuck me, I almost forgot that. And one more thing--don't give me the I lumped in Rand Paul, son of the savior, with Angle and O'Donnell. He's a phucknut. Mommy must have been tipping the bottle when he was inutero because he is a piece of shit. 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:20 | 687724 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Well, we all KNOW WHY John Galt is not running, why aren't you?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:28 | 687566 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

They won't do it, they can't do it, they will be Mr. Smith within a month.

The only answer is blood in the streets; and it could very well be we beer and circus our way to irrelevancy until the barbarian hoards take over.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 01:06 | 687649 Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

I will laugh when you stop getting your social security checks as a result.  >85% of all Federal Spending is defense, social security, medicare and interest on the debt.  WHich one do you want to cut?  If you cut out the entirety of the other 15% which includes, agriculture, roads, education, NASA, weather forecasts, Army Corps of Engineers, FEMA, parks, everything you would still have a 4% deficit.  So which one defense?  You're so stupid and scared of a ginned up terrorist threat you would never permit that.  Medicare?  Not when it's you they are spending it on.  Social Security?  That's your Cadillac payment. 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 09:09 | 687858 snowball777
snowball777's picture

It's true that many here espouse policy decisions without any attempt to extrapolate the consequences of same beyond their narrow focus. And you're right that seniors dependent on medicare/SS won't be jumping out of retirement home beds to rejoin the workforce make up the difference on privatized care, but there are ways to incrementally transition to a less burdensome debt structure by redefining benefits over time and grandfathering (pun!) seniors already collecting for the meantime.

I'm a lefty and would gladly just pay more of my top 1% salary at the office, accept means-testing on bennies, and remove the income limits to contribs to make SS whole, but you should still listen to what the angry mob is trying to say about the long-term national debt.

They aren't ogres that want to toss seniors on their butt...it's too easy to characterize them that way and ignore the inescapable truth that someone needs to buy the bread and cheese for the 'free lunch'.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWicoE8gG6Q

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 11:59 | 687961 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

And you no doubt typed that thinking you were swaggering to and fro in moral righteousness and enshrouded in profound economic sophistication.  You probably also worship at the altar of the word "sustainable" this or that.

You are clueless.  You believe things you've read that say SS contrib increases and sloowly, incrementally transition, grandfather present recipients blah blah and you blindly accepted it all without a spreadsheet in front of you.

All Such Studies Are Funded By Grants.  They all provide the answer the customer wanted.

Get this through your head, and please don't react from the left wing part of your brain because mathematics doesn't have a wing preference.

THERE IS NO GENTLE WAY OUT.  PERIOD.

Any GOP Congress critter who votes for a debt ceiling increase is a traitor to his or her voters.  

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 01:41 | 687667 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

"JUST REFUSE TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING."

There will be pain either way.

I would rather be in a controlled demolition than a sudden collapse.

The longer the extend and pretend the more violent the collapse.

Prepare, announce, cut programs, cut government useless departments, create some safety nets, allow food growing in yards, allow barter and start a controlled gradual collapse as early as possible.

 

 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:22 | 687725 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I'm in favor of selling the Strategic Helium Reserve, ending Mohair subsidies...oh, and ALL Corporate welfare!

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 09:10 | 687861 snowball777
snowball777's picture

The corporations called: they're in favor of "ALL Corporate welfare" too.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 11:24 | 687936 What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

The tea party has already been completely infiltrated by the same politicians we are trying to distance ourselves from.  They hardly seem like a credible solution, regardless of their ideas.

The tea party, to me, seems like a covert republican project.  The fact that they get so much MSM coverage, alone, is a red flag.  We need a viable party that is truly free of the same corrupt politicians dressed in different clothing.  The closet party I see is Libertarian.  However, they need more charismatic leaders.  However, if a leader is charismatic they tend to naturally gravitate over to one of the main parties, instead.

It seems like in the end, people get the government they deserve. 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 15:01 | 688121 hound dog vigilante
hound dog vigilante's picture

"The Tea Party folks are being swept in amid voter outrage at government finances.

Well, lets see some integrity.  Let's see them refuse a Debt Ceiling Increase.

ZERO.  NO DEBT CEILING INCREASE.  EVER.

Instantly spending will be limited to tax revenue.  It will be an instantaneous step to rational thought consistent with integrity.  

ZERO.  

I dare them to actually do what they were voted in to do.  They don't have to negotiate with the Senate.  They don't have to deal with VETO from Obama.

JUST REFUSE TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING."

 

Post of the month.  Thank you, Crash.

It's put up or shut up time for the TP.  Conventional wisdom says they'll show up in DC and cave to lobbyists.  But conventional wisdom has had a lousy track record the past few years.  IMO, the TP movement has already proven that it's not a flash in the pan... the establishment (both major parties) has thrown it's best shots and the TP is still standing, still growing. 

Having said all that, I think a Palin 2012 run would be the beginning of the end for the TP.  Politicians that write crib notes on their hands tend to drain all credibility.

 

 

 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:18 | 686835 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

"Every quarter, MSM analysts claim the housing market has “bottomed” and is ready for a rebound, yet, every quarter the mortgage crisis gets just a little bit worse. It is now projected that Fannie and Freddie could end up costing taxpayers over $1 Trillion"

and they will keep touting the recovery

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:39 | 686885 downrodeo
downrodeo's picture

I caught Austan Goolsbee the other day on Jon Stewart. I cringed when he touted the NBER's statistic that the recession ended in 2009. I really want to see the look on the face of this man when shtf. I always wonder, do they really believe the words that come out of their own mouths?

 

 

the interview:

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-august-11-2009/austan-goolsbee

 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 21:38 | 687381 Xedus129
Xedus129's picture

his name says it all.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:31 | 687461 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Halloween!   Ghoulsbeeeeeeee....!

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 09:12 | 687862 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Ah, yes...the smiley glad-hander to Orszag's nerd; a very smooth-talker...I should ask him to come talk to my lawn.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 13:01 | 688005 tallystick
tallystick's picture

Ah,  the Bonesman Goolsbee,  Champion of extemporanious speaking.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:21 | 686841 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

"I should mention, though, that whatever sum the Fed openly announces it will be irrelevant to those who understand how the central bank operates. The bailouts begun in 2008 never really stopped, and it’s impossible to say how much currency exactly the Fed has Xeroxed into circulation without taking a look at their books, which they won’t let anyone do."

bingo

if their lips are moving....

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:22 | 686848 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

"I suspect with added currency instability, $150 a barrel oil is conceivable within the next 6 months. Two years ago, high gas prices frustrated Americans, but were still bearable. Today, after two years of static 20% real unemployment and trillions in lost savings, $150 oil would crush what’s left of this economy."

$5-6 gas 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:53 | 686916 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Citing above three items, NOTW, confirms the author of the post, you and I all think it is a string of big & ugly financial events that makes up the catastrophe we are going through.

We have not solved even ONE of our financial problems, so it looks to me like things will keep getting worse for some time.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:26 | 686850 Mr.Kowalski
Mr.Kowalski's picture

Who knows what the inflection point will be. My personal guess.. the European banking system collapses, taking everyone else's with it. But whatever it is, the reality is that there will certainly be one in the next few years. When it happens, it's going to be so fast that most wont see it. One day most Americans will wake up, turn on their car radio, and listen to the DJ's telling us that the currency is worthless, your job is toast, your savings and stocks are gone, and to que up at the welfare office for your ration card. 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:40 | 687144 DeltaDawn
DeltaDawn's picture

I just picked up some unused ration coupons at an antique store. Person must have died before using them.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 21:27 | 687368 capitallosses
capitallosses's picture

I just picked up 600 trillion Z dollars, brand new, never used. That should tide me over.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 01:39 | 687663 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Yeah. He died in line while waiting to use them.  HaHa.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:55 | 687172 merehuman
merehuman's picture

trigger point= upcoming at the comex, many deliveries to be met, comex default could do it

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:29 | 686856 frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

I feel like i entered a walk in closet with the most lethal Trigger Points in history on the shelves.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:37 | 687255 barkster
barkster's picture

I feel like i am locked in a walk in closet with the most lethal Trigger Points in history on the shelves

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:25 | 687726 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Kinda like Yosemite Sam in the dark powder magazine (psst:  DO NOT light a match!)

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:34 | 686871 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

good information but in the wrong hands it justifies further statist / fascist solutions.....the termite ridden, feces infested house of cards should be allowed to collapse....plough under the banksters and their exorbitant privileges with any survivors spending the rest of their lives in jail....the most criminal should be executed....

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:10 | 686952 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Those who are currently setting in the throws of power are way ahead of you, my friend.  The guest has eloquently laid out the game plan, and the only way we can counter it is by turning over our elected officials, booting out a majority of the current FOMC members, and forcing the too big to fail banks to eat it unti they go belly up.

Good luck with that, because I don't like our chances... at all.  The best thing us peasants can do at this point is prepare for these triggering events the best we can. 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:45 | 687154 Ludwig Van
Ludwig Van's picture

 

Ron Paul chairing the subcommittee overseeing the Fed constitutes a helluvan inflection point.

 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:07 | 687193 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Its funny, as a youngster I am sure many of us wanted to 'save the world'.  Now we see a world NOT WORTH SAVING.

Now the question is, what do we replace it with?

http://psychonews.site90.net

Identifying the Oligarchy one psycho at a time.

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 11:59 | 688908 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Everyone else has left for higher ground.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:53 | 687166 razorthin
razorthin's picture

and never surrender.  make them pry free the rigor mortis grip from your own "trigger".

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:49 | 687494 Yits and the Yimrum
Yits and the Yimrum's picture

many of us are preparing for the collapse; but the goons have profiled the preppers and so we will problably not sail off into the sunset with our dairy goats, apple cider operations, organic foods and cottage industries.

 

I will not be told to leave the homestead for the sake of state Security or other lies; at some point its time to go down fighting like a man, and not a corporate human resourse with blue Cross/Blue Shield and a leaky 401K

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:39 | 686886 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

Beware the Lame Duck Congress.

 

But we have to pass the bill so you can find out what is in it, away from the fog of the controversy.
Nancy Pelosi

You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.
Rahm Emanuel

The American people are tired of liars and people who pretend to be something they're not.
Hillary Clinton

A system of capitalism presumes sound money, not fiat money manipulated by a central bank. Capitalism cherishes voluntary contracts and interest rates that are determined by savings, not credit creation by a central bank.
Ron Paul

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:43 | 686892 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

is that h. clintons autobiography?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 21:03 | 687330 barkster
barkster's picture

My favorite chapter of the autobiography was her account of being torn on whether to become a Methodyke or a Lesbyterian....

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 21:22 | 687358 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

Was there a chapter on Vince Foster?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:42 | 686888 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

"According to Citigroup’s chief economist, “savage austerity” is already in the making for the U.S"

 

are you ready for austerity? rioting?

"I honestly cannot imagine the full extent of an American reaction to austerity. Cuts in social security, medical care, unemployment welfare, food stamps, education, police, military spending, government jobs, etc, would at the very least result in rioting, not to mention leave a lot of starving, homeless people in its wake. "

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:42 | 687480 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Actually, a small read will tell anyone that austerity is well and truly underway in the US. It's just not called that. IOU what? ;-)

It's one of the great tricks in sheeple control. Call it by a different name and people will believe it's not a duck, even though it walks and quacks as one.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:20 | 687722 kiwidor
kiwidor's picture

Complete rubbish.  Most americans are too fat and lazy to get off their behinds and do anything .  Been that way for years.  When was the last time?? 1968?  Expect sullen resignation, not taking food, rapid onset of clinical depression, and deaths by heart attack, suicide, drinking, drug overdoses, car crashes, jumping out of buildings.  Some people will simply die of despair. Some may 'go postal' but there won't be many because most of you are outright Cowards.

The time for reaction was long ago, and nothing was done.  Something can still be done, but it requires about 60% of the population having a single mind to dismantle the civil infrastructure.  Start with Police stations and police. Parking wardens. 'security' guards.  Hey, they're only there to save you from yourself.  Hang a few judges.   Military bases are more complex, but most enlisted men are slackers.  Anyone who says "i'm just following the rules" or "i'm only doing my job"; shoot them in the head.  Same goes for those who make a living from usury.

You might also consider dispatching a lot of nurses, doctors and pharmacists, though that might increase the average lifespan by about 10 years.....oops.

But that is the physical war.  before you begin that, you must remove the mental and spiritual pollution from your midst.  Television transmitters.  Television presenters.  Radio hosts. Radio transmitters.  the producers of the MSM programmes.  Cellphone switches.  Telecommunications gateways. Yes, the Internet.  You surely don't think Governments want the internet to be switched off, do you?

Fires tho, are the best bet.  Wait til the power goes out, then go for a walk or bike-ride with a box of matches. and a few bottles of kerosene, while you can still get them.  No wait, scratch that idea...because most of you can't even walk to the store.

After about 25-30 years of age, we are all dying.  But you, my american friends, will die like fat, arthritic, domesticated pets..slowly and painfully and miserably.  Many around the world wait in anticipation of you rising up and serving justice to usurers, murderers, the liars who maintain your media networks, the cabals of do-gooders and nosy-parkers, your military-industrial-pharma complex...but I know you won't.  You will grovel and follow orders like robots.  Such a shame

 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 09:33 | 687874 harveywalbinger
harveywalbinger's picture

Channeling Chairman Mao are we?

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 13:59 | 688045 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

You're in an optimistic bent this morning. Actually, the last paragraph does seem to be the likely scenario in the end. It is unfortunate that we have fallen prey to such an obvious cascade of events. The real black swan? It isn't even necessary- we will experience it through our inability to act.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:43 | 686890 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Look on the bright side. There is always heaven. Look to god and don't flag as junk. God is watching.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:47 | 686904 Shameful
Shameful's picture

The last refuge of the slave.  "I'll get a reward in heaven"  Tell me this, why would god reward a slave?  What great reward does a spiritless slave earn in his life of empty toil?  Does God place us on earth expecting us to be slaves and suffer?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:51 | 686912 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

amazing and completely undeserved grace

its not a reward, its a free gift

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:55 | 687064 Shameful
Shameful's picture

So we receive a reward for not following Jesus' example?  Seems to me he physically assaulted the money changers, the bankers of his day.  He stood up to the power structure of his time and was killed for it.  So he will give his mercy and light to us if we keep our heads down and act as slaves, and ignore the things he fought against and was killed for?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:14 | 687206 robobbob
robobbob's picture

Certain organized religions have pushed this wall flower-sheeple view of life. But, that does not have to be how it is. Christianity didn't advance across the globe based on sheepishness.

The bible says no to violence, mostly. It doesn't say remain silent. It doesn't say no petitioning. It doesn't say no blog journalism. It doesn't say no to videography. It doesn't say no protesting. In short, there is a vast array of things to actively challenge the system, make people aware and to encourage them to prepare, all within the confines of a righteous life. This sheep/slave thing is what some compromised organizations pushing an agenda promote. Just be more open minded.

In fact, I think it would rather weigh against you, if you had known what was happening, yet you did nothing, and remained silent.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:32 | 687729 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Ever read the Bagavhad-Gita?  Even Krishna (arguably the Hindu God of Love) himself exhorts his follower Arjuna, to fight!

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:24 | 687116 tmosley
tmosley's picture

A whole religion devoted to getting something for nothing.

No wonder at the Dark Ages.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:59 | 687179 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

so if you die tonight, you plan on addressing it with a joke about the dark ages?

its not about "religion" (something man attempts to create); its about a relationship

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 01:53 | 687676 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Well, the 72 virgins, mountains of rice and rivers of milk and honey works wonders for muslims

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:44 | 687276 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Even if it is something for nothing you must accept it or reject it.  Your choice.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:57 | 687311 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

its not something for nothing - a huge price was paid, horrible suffering, torture and excruciating death.  our unpayable debt was paid.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 21:48 | 687393 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

"its not something for nothing - a huge price was paid, horrible suffering, torture and excruciating death."

Happens every day, countless times.  Explain how the debt has been paid.  Or, again, is it all the free stuff after the fact, in which case I might as well go Muslim and enjoy my 72 virgins, endless wine, food, etc., forever.

What a crock of shit.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:42 | 687483 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Final word!  Crock of shit it is. 

Okay... moving right along.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:50 | 687746 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Sing along with me.
"Rocky Racoon went up to his room only to find Gideon's Bible..."

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 21:14 | 688483 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

amazing and completely undeserved grace

its not a reward, its a free gift

see, it's this "belief" that allows you god-botherers the "right" to fuck up everything like it's a big ole game & the high score gets "god's grace" no matter what. . .

sick.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:57 | 686923 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

I touched on this very issue in a recent blog. I'm not anti-religious or anti-spiritual but am wary when people start bringing in religious ideology to economic discussions:

http://arkadaba.blogspot.com/2010/08/easier-for-camel.html 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:52 | 687049 Shameful
Shameful's picture

No one is willing to ask "Who wrote this book?".  Seems to me that a politician put it together, look up the Council of Nicaea.  Later exploited by the Roman Church for a good long time.  No offense to catholics but looks at that history and tell me the popes were the God's personal and chosen representatives on Earth, case in point Pope Alexander VI.  What better way to keep the masses pacified then to promise them eternal rewards and riches if they stay good dutiful and obedient slaves?

The meek shall inherit the Earth?  Sure and maybe one day gravity will fail.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:37 | 687120 Racer
Racer's picture

If you look at the Book of the Dead.. the Ani scroll from Egypt you will see scams going on for many generations.

 

Re Book of the Dead.. it was a scroll you 'must have' for your afterlife... so you have to pay lots to get one, was it just a con trick by scribes to make more money? well they don't have to worry about giving any refunds do they? The Ultimate Con trick!

if you look at the 'rules you must obey' before your heart was weighed at the judgement ,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bookdead.jpg

it  seems it was then taken into the other 'religions'/con games to control the people and now, fast forward to today, goverment suckers are claiming gods work as justification of their requirements to bleed the poor dry

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:40 | 687141 Shameful
Shameful's picture

History is full of cons and conmen. And why should it not be, they tend to get ahead. If a person or group knows how to manipulate human emotions and beliefs to get ahead, odds are they will use that knowledge and get ahead. Interesting how God always needs money and a bigger building or more staff. Seems the creator of the universe would be happy with the universe as his dwelling, or at the very least could drop a nice temple/stadium from the sky if needs be.

Hell look at Christianity. Notice how it's a war religion? That the Prince of Peace is held up as the justification of war. Really this is not new, it was a war religion even back near the start, after Rome adopted it and slide it into the existing framework. The problem is people do not research their own faiths/religions and don't ask questions. It's hard to sucker a person who is thinking and awake. Hell many Christians I have talked to do not know the importance of Paul/Saul of Tarsus and his change of the then existing form of Christianity.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 21:57 | 687408 Pope Clement
Pope Clement's picture

Not to mention that Saul/Paul tossed James the brother of Jesus off the high parapet of the Temple. See Prof. Robert Eisenman's biography of James for the details.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 02:52 | 687705 saulysw
saulysw's picture

My namesake did some bad things. Meh, whatcha gonna do, eh? I quite like being the "evil" version of Paul.....

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 01:56 | 687679 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Religions, politicians and insurance companies capitalize on human fear.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:35 | 687731 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

'There once was a crooked man, and he did very well!' -- Inner-City Mother Goose

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:01 | 687415 melachiro
melachiro's picture

Please don't confuse Catholicism with Christian Faith...apples and oranges; structure, power and control vs relationship with the giver of Grace.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 08:20 | 687826 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Which is why as a libertarian-christian anomoly, I reject any "church".  Christ wasn't mincing words when he said judgement will begin with the churches.

"Religion" and do-it-yourself salvation is not the same as "Faith".

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:35 | 687574 delacroix
delacroix's picture

if the pope, is gods representative, why does he need a bulletproof limo? can't god protect him. same goes for jeshua ben miriam

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:13 | 687611 wisefool
wisefool's picture

The former Pope took a bullet. And the first thing he did when out of the hospital was forgive his aggressor. I dont care if they made the whole thing up. He beats Hollywood/Washington and their Ronald Regan wanna bees Every single day.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 03:28 | 687714 i-dog
i-dog's picture

"The meek shall inherit the Earth?"

Nope. The meek shall inherit the leftovers.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 12:47 | 687991 LoneCapitalist
LoneCapitalist's picture

" I hope the meek do inherit the earth, cause Ill push 'em down and take it away from them." Louie Anderson.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 15:02 | 688124 Unlawful Justice
Unlawful Justice's picture

A very effective way to disconnect from brutal cognitive reality is by believing in magic thinking, also know as Religion.   You can also get yourself one of the many addictions to cope with denial.

 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:48 | 686905 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

+ trillons, but to label it a "bright side" is a massive understatement

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 12:02 | 687962 Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

1st off since the Holocaust Jews no longer wholy accept the premise that God is in control and they behave accordingly which is the modern genesis of the greed and every man for himself attitude that currently grips the system.  Greed is good?  If everyone does it it's no longer avarice?  

 

2nd if God is in active control it's very tempting to adjudge him a very poor manager.  For example God could fix this mess in an instant by making it absolutely crystal clear to the man that pain and the creation thereof is a zero sum game.  E.g. let people know in no uncertain terms that pain generated on Earth (which causes pain to the diety which is the example of Christ on the cross) will be recompensed either on Earth or thereafter.  Now before all the literalist idiots get their knickers in a twist that does not mean eternal anything.  The idea that humans are born perfect or complete as they are is the height of hubris and stupidity.  One would have thought that the invention of the mirror would have soved that problem but apparnetly not.  Any an after death somplace much akin to a holding cell or the Catholic conception of Pergatory that is uncomfortable, no pain perhaps but overwhelming anxiety and uneasyness.  A place of no sleep nor rest where 15 Earth minutes seems like an eternity and then recycle the poor excuse for a human being after a time proportionate to their offenses and see if they can do any bettter next time.  If that's not the way it is then make it so.  If that's the way it is then disclose it.  That would mitigate 75% of man's inhumanity to man.  As men get older their mean (as in average) behavior would get better.  So assuming God exists then one has to earnestly wonder what the hell is going on.  If he says it won't work I say try it first because the situation in place is abject bullshit.  

 

Back to the Jewish discussion. The holocaust raised some very serious questions that have yet to be answered.  Perhpas they can never be answered.  But to change the nature of God from one who protects his orale people such as leading them out of slavery to one of a detached diety who can't be trusted in any element of human affairs is heresy.  A very popular heresy but a heresy none the less.      

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:45 | 686898 moregoldplease
moregoldplease's picture

I agree that Americans have no idea what"hard times" really means. Survivalists etc cannot really imagine what it would be like to be a war time refugee; which is essentially what's comng.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 21:48 | 687395 wretch
wretch's picture

Wartime refugee if you're lucky.  For the rest, prison camps and shallow graves, I'm afraid.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 11:25 | 687935 Incubus
Incubus's picture

they think "collapse" of society will be something like going to the ballgame, or camping.  Some spectacle to watch on television, or to spend the weekend doing, but the poor fools don't realize the reality of what's coming.

Sadly, the lot of us haven't really defined ourselves outside of social circles.  I don't think majority of people will be able to 'handle' the breakdown of society, let alone go the weekend without their prescription meds. 

Personally, I welcome it in a twisted sort of way.  This will be the defining period in our lives--for those of us that manage to live through it, that is. 

 

 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:45 | 686899 dot_bust
dot_bust's picture

If the Chinese decide to dump their Forex reserves of U.S. Dollars, that will be ugly.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:49 | 686908 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Austerity will be a gas.  On the plus side maybe they will stop invading nations.  After all the oligarchs will need the troops on the streets to prevent looting and the populace randomly lashing out in their anger.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:48 | 687284 barkster
barkster's picture

based on the level of chemtrails in socal these past 4 weeks, there may not be anyone left alive to loot... heaviest i have ever seen.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 21:27 | 688499 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

it's been extreme in the PNW over that same time period as well. . . can't help but wonder if there is some "adjacent" activity imminent. . . sadly.

(by the way, cilantro & chlorella are good, inexpensive chelation therapy.

http://www.natural-cure-remedy.com/heavy-metal-detox.html

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 01:53 | 687678 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

they've had a little practice with anthrax and thermite but your right that's coming and exactly where is it authorized in the constitution? 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:33 | 687730 kiwidor
kiwidor's picture

The people who will make the decision to bomb 'one of their own' cities, or drop anthrax on it, do not feel obliged to follow the rules that they insist you follow.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:49 | 686909 Wyndtunnel
Wyndtunnel's picture

California being hit by the BIG ONE!  Millions dead (hopefully mostly people who live in Hollywood)...Good or bad for the Ponzi?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:29 | 687242 Wyndtunnel
Wyndtunnel's picture

Fuck you and your junks. It's a serious question. The West Coast is due for a mega quake that will likely make the leveling of New Orleans seem like a party.

Would the Obama admin find a way to use this as an opportunity to "bring America together" or would the chaos that ensues be the Black Swan that sends the Administration reeling. A huge quake would certainly help bring the California housing market back to equilibrium...so much so that I wouldn't put it past the Feds to rip a page from Lex Luther and nuke the San Andreas to tigger a quake...now that would be the mother of all Black Swans! But more seriously: Something the scale of Katrina is very likely to hit somewhere in America in the near future..and many such catastophies could be engineered...short of a full-on food crisis following another massive market disrupting event it would take 9/11 cubed to give the Guv reason to impose martial law across the land. Any thoughts?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:50 | 687491 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You are correct.  Flooding in northern states happened several times after Katrina, and just as devastating.  The indigenous people worked their way through it and rebuilt.  Not much media coverage, FEMA trailers, or cries of racism.  When people KNOW the shit is about to hit the fan and do nothing, who is to blame?

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:37 | 687733 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Sigh.  If only G.W. Bush had "cared enough," NOLA would not have undergone such suffering! </sarcasm>

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 01:29 | 687579 delacroix
delacroix's picture

.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 21:38 | 688513 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

with regards your "any thoughts" question. . .

I've been nudging people in my community to ponder just how they'd fare if there was a "major earthquake" - irregardless of living in an area not prone to major quakes - because many can get their head around such a scenario. . . cracked water mains, no electricity, etc. - at least it gets them to think about some type of food storage, water filters, "emergency" supplies, etc. 

won't "save" anyone from what is happening, but it doesn't hurt to live as though you have some awareness of reality, eh.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:57 | 686924 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

This guy is absolutely amazing.

OT, but I just had a thought about the BS terror threat. UPS? what is this I keep hearing about a Brown Bailout? One hand washing the other? This Barry is more corrupt than I ever thought.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 08:29 | 687832 Kiss My Iceland...
Kiss My Icelandic Ass's picture

Brown swan ?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:01 | 686934 mynhair
mynhair's picture
Trigger Points, Black Swans, And Other Unpleasant Realities

Like the Fed cares.....

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:03 | 686937 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Who knows what the tipping point event will be. It won't take much, any excuse will do.

Perhaps a butterfly blowing a fart in Brazil will be sufficient at this point.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:06 | 686943 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Maybe THE Tipping Point will be when UPS publicizes that all those " terrorist packages" where sent from the WhiteHouse to Yemen and then back to the U.S.?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:14 | 686960 Assetman
Assetman's picture

How cool would THAT be?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:07 | 687082 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Washington has their own "automated" delivery service.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:53 | 687503 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Yeah. 'Cept for one thing:  What would be the purpose in stopping your own false flag?

Makes no sense, as does your comment.   

Oh, wait.  I think I just read that the packages were sent from the RNC main office!

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:09 | 686948 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Really convenient that just a month ago the MSM was talking about how Obama needed a good crisis / terrorist attack to occur to show how capable he would be in a crisis.

Look for the elephant eared wonder to be bragging about it all weekend and into election day...

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