Guest Post: Trigger Points, Black Swans, And Other Unpleasant Realities

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Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:17 | 686829 CrashisOptimistic
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You want a trigger point?

You want a Black Swan?

I'll give you one.  How about some new Congress critters who actually do NOT betray their voters.

The Tea Party folks are being swept in amid voter outrage at government finances.

Well, lets see some integrity.  Let's see them refuse a Debt Ceiling Increase.

ZERO.  NO DEBT CEILING INCREASE.  EVER.

Instantly spending will be limited to tax revenue.  It will be an instantaneous step to rational thought consistent with integrity.  

ZERO.  

I dare them to actually do what they were voted in to do.  They don't have to negotiate with the Senate.  They don't have to deal with VETO from Obama.

JUST REFUSE TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING.

 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:24 | 686849 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

and laugh at those who suggest it! YES!

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:19 | 687431 surfsup
surfsup's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNDn6SYTa7M&feature=player_embedded

x 50

 

OHIO AG CORDRAY "BANKS OPERATING ON A BUSINESS MODEL BUILT ON FRAUD"

 

 

 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:39 | 687475 jeff montanye
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and in nebraska a 22 year old has been charged with waterboarding his girlfriend.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 08:48 | 687844 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Don't worry, Dick Cheney said it was cool; she kinda looked like a terrorist or called one or something.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 10:18 | 687895 sweet ebony diamond
sweet ebony diamond's picture

Anybody interested in voting for the write-in candidate Tyler Durden this coming elections?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:33 | 686869 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

A man can dream...... a man can dream....

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 01:26 | 687658 G-R-U-N-T
Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:44 | 686894 CH1
CH1's picture

All good things, but what do you do if the TP Pubs fail you?

(IMHO, the odds are very high that they will.)

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:52 | 686900 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

That's exactly what this toner-gate is about.. The military complex needs to scare the newb congress folks into raising the roof.. as in no ceiling period..

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 14:48 | 689189 rocker
rocker's picture

That's exactly what this toner-gate is about... 

That is what HR 8791 is all about.  Unlimited anything. Including the destruction of the Bill of Rights. 

Done and passed on 2008.   Yup.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 17:55 | 686922 Shameful
Shameful's picture

It sure would be a black swan, because I could not even fathom seeing it.  After all it means less money for the military and can the neo-cons really allow that to happen?  Hell hope it happens, it would be wild!

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:22 | 686983 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Voting is consent to be governed. Don't do it.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:12 | 687423 Miles Kendig
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I disagree.

Vote:  NONE OF THE ABOVE, or simply spoil your ballot.  It is the only no confidence vote available to us

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 10:51 | 687915 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

agreed Miles.   this is the only way to make a statement.    apathy is part of the game plan, don't buy into it.

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 11:49 | 688902 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Can I be Captain of RMS Titanic!!

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 11:54 | 688905 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Word up!

Okay, Miles, you don't want this, do you?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/None_of_the_above

In other words, "filled by appointment"

---

Collapse is on the way. Shrug!

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 03:57 | 718889 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

My dear amphibian, how much credibility would such an appointment have if a vast portion of the ballots cast were for NTA or were spoiled?

After a while even the farcical is seen for what it is.  It just needs a little help.  Imagine if that Nevada senate race had a 10% NTA vote rather than the 2% it did get..  And 2% is a lot without any real juice behind it.  Now imagine a 20%..  30% ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3O-KCdC5D4

Cheers and make my shrug a double

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:36 | 687474 Yits and the Yimrum
Yits and the Yimrum's picture

voting in your own slavery by the Demo-Rethug mafia is not a rational option.

 

I'd rather die than vote for these goons!

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:16 | 687721 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

There ARE other choices besides Republicons and Decepticrats (if not, then write yourself in!)

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 08:44 | 687840 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

DON"T VOTE?????

that is your esteem answer? 

Then you have NO RIGHT to express your opinion on any topic on this site or any other.

Perhaps you might like to live in Somila, there is no need to vote there.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 12:38 | 687985 jomama
jomama's picture

i pay taxes, i have every right to express my opinion.  i don't vote for the oligarchs because it doesn't make a damn bit of difference. but for local measures i do.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 20:51 | 688463 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

that "no right" to an opinion is a tired opinion in itself. . .

I'm afraid I'm with WaterWings on this one, though I honour every one's right to do what their conscience bids. . .

"voting" reinforces the "belief" that individuals are what's wrong with this "system, and that eventually you can vote yourself free and clear of them - I don't believe amrka's problems stem from bad voting choices, it goes back too far now and it is the SYSTEM that is broken/rotten/dead (your meme choice). . . it's like voting in a "new president" and expecting them to have any power to change what continues to happen. . . presidents are figureheads, lightning rods for all the whining and disappointment, they are well compensated actors under contract, replaceable ad infinitum (or until the system is bled dry and collapses).

but I realise this doesn't sit well with most, a sense of (seeming) helplessness - when in fact, you can turn that feeling into empowerment by removing yourself from believing in the whole mess, sooner rather than later, and turn your efforts to those you care about, rather than waste your e-motions hating what you cannot change.

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 11:51 | 688904 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

There's a first time for everyone:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIraCchPDhk

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:54 | 687060 cossack55
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"I like the way you think. I'm going to keeping my eye on you"

     -sam kinison-

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:02 | 687601 Nine Pies
Nine Pies's picture

Back to School. Classic.

Sam Kinison and Rodney Dangerfield are both dead, though.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:29 | 687124 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

Your black swan is as wrong as the authors:

"A terrorist attack (or false flag), which causes investor sentiment to falter and stocks to disintegrate, would be an example of a Black Swan."

A Black Swan event is partially defined by a complete lack of knowledge of said event. A terrorist attack is a known event, known to the terrorist.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:28 | 687239 bonin006
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It could be a Black Swan for the unexpecting victims, just not for the terrorist who planned it. As Taleb says, Thanksgiving is a Black Swan for the turkey, but not the farmer.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 21:37 | 687379 Xedus129
Xedus129's picture

ahh like Pelham 123 where Travolta makes $$$$$$ 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 21:57 | 687409 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

Outside of quantland Taleb doesn't know what he's talking about. Don't listen to him, that's a terrible analogy anyway.

That book needs a rewrite.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:23 | 687447 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

More like you need an IQ--it's a great book, and the revised version is even better.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:30 | 687569 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

I have no problem with Talib's black swan events...they have always been here, and always will be here. The problem with this whole scenario is that....well...so what? nobody can predict them with any kind of accuracy, so the only way to be 100% shielded from them is to do NOTHING. Which is precisely what I have done my whole life, not because of any fear of a black swan event, but because I understood from an early age that the whole system is rigged. But just think of what would happen if everyone chose the path I chose...we would not have an economy! Just be resigned that there will always be outlying events, and some people are going to be burned by them.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 01:20 | 687654 ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

ummm...HFT takeover...we all live in Quantland now. Taleb over Tarzan any day.

I think "that book" needs a re-read, by you.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:27 | 687450 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You have obviously not read Taleb's book.  The article is correct.

Taleb was the one to define the term; you can't re-define it to suit you.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 07:15 | 687767 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

When Tarzan hungry eats cute cuddly Racoon. Don't argue Tarzan.

Taleb Lebanese, knows nothing about Thanksgiving.

True Black Swan event is unknown to all. Randomness once influenced, no longer random. CIA, NSA, Mossad architects of terror, Faux Swans.

Tarzan says book needs rewrite, all Taleb talks about is walking, strolling and chatting. "The man does not know how to walk as good as I", "I am artist of strolling and chatting".

"I tried caveman diet". Tarzan invented caveman diet! Tarzan say rewrite!

Tarzan has new book, yea: "Fooled by Talebness".

Black Swan, 1.5 million copies sold @ $12/book for Taleb. Taleb laughs all the way to the bank, along the way stops at deli and eats turkey sandwich, muses "The Zheeple love me".

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:37 | 687137 DeltaDawn
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And all of us Zerohedgers should get off our asses (apologies to anyone who is actually doing anything) and go to D.C. and vocalize this loudly, bringing along anyone else we can drag there to do the same!

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:29 | 687455 RockyRacoon
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Why?  For a 5 minute flash news article showing what the MSM would consider a tin-foil-hat-wearing group (not mob) of people?   The resources can be directed more constructively -- or destructively.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:33 | 687458 Trifecta Man
Trifecta Man's picture

I agree with DeltaDawn.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:24 | 687618 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Been there, done that.  My son and I marched on 9/12/09 with over 500,000 other fed up Americans.  CSPAN and Fox covered it, MSM ignored it.

Next week we will throw some Democrats out on their asses which will get some attention, but we will still be living under BANKSTER RULE. 

The end game is near, now just trying to prepare to survive the collapse.  No FEMA camps or Superdomes for my family.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:46 | 687738 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Don't leave the game in the third innings FB. Battles don't always get won in the first skirmish. Live up to your name. Don't give up, ever. Thanks for your efforts in Washington, it was and is, most appreciated.

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 12:00 | 688909 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Thanks Al, but lately my feelings are more in tune with walstreetpro2 vs. Beck,Palin&Co.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NWFA6g2x-4

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 08:57 | 687850 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

if you don't count on anything, you won't be disappointed.

Just because everything is broken does not mean they can or will fix it.

Everyone forgets that politicians are by definition...politicians.  Promises are made to be broken or forgotten, that is it in a nutshell.

Capitol is not run by congress, "C" and "J" street runs it.  The end question is are they fighting each other behind the scene?

 

As for this article....lots of singular thinking here.  China sells UST ...to whom?  $100.00 oil when the world is drowning in oil now and $80 is known to be the upper dollar limit or the whole world  comes to a halt?  The dollar being thrown out the window...in favor of what someone please tell me?

The article is more hocus pocus speculation that is not well thought out when someone like me can poke holes in it.  I am tired of articles with fear and loathing as the basis, I want facts to go with my questions not rhetoric.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 11:11 | 687930 Wynn
Wynn's picture

agree. worst case scenarios are statistically improbable, yet many people fret and stew about things that will never come to pass.

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 10:53 | 688856 Stun Gun
Stun Gun's picture

Agreed, thank you for your efforts FB.

Personal security matters

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 12:05 | 688906 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

I think there may be some "longer range" problems that your stun gun may not solve.

http://www.pof-usa.com/p308/p30816.htm

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:21 | 687471 i-dog
i-dog's picture

What? ... all gather in the 10x10 'Free Speech Zone' down in Barry Farm and wave a placard? That should work!

FYI, even a 'Million Man March' in D.C. now will not change government policy.

We each need to work on individual state governments to exercise their constitutional rights and bring Washington down.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:07 | 687607 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

Maybe the TP brigade does something constructive, but I am not holding my breath.    Trying to change the Federal monster from this inside at this point is probably impossible.  In addition, trying to organize a national movement is prohibitively expensive.   Those who benefit from the status quo would bury any real movement under a mountain of marketing money.

The best chance is to organize on the state level.   To that end, why not push for a repeal of the 16th amendment?   The early rounds of this battle could be done on the state level.  Focus on a couple of states, and if they successfully pass the measure, the success would spawn viral movements in other states.

As a nation, we seem to have forgotten the virtues of trying to change government through Constitutional amendments.  Repeal #16 would be a good start.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:39 | 687261 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

i say "spend it all...just over there now."

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 21:07 | 687338 hangemhigh
hangemhigh's picture

CiO:

You want a trigger point?

You want a Black Swan?

I'll give you one.  How about some new Congress critters who actually do NOT betray their voters.

The Tea Party folks are being swept in amid voter outrage at government finances.

Well, lets see some integrity.  Let's see them refuse a Debt Ceiling Increase.

 

i hope you're right (left??) but the odds are that this is just another of the one party system's "change that you can believe in" hoaxes...............


Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:28 | 687510 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

First of all, they haven't been voted in. Second, they will not refuse to do anything as they all know already that the only real way to riches in this country are politics and religion. You think they are in this for the good of the country? I give you Sharon Angle, Christine O'Donnell and Rand Paul. Three dimwitted morons on parade that I don't want anywhere near Congress because I am going to leave it up to terrorists to get the ink cartridges properly in place. They could do us a big favor here and not leave us with those morons acting in the interest of this country. Blow up the building in session and we would all be better off. 

Oh, banking and lobbying--the other way to riches. Fuck me, I almost forgot that. And one more thing--don't give me the I lumped in Rand Paul, son of the savior, with Angle and O'Donnell. He's a phucknut. Mommy must have been tipping the bottle when he was inutero because he is a piece of shit. 

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