Guest Post: Trigger Points, Black Swans, And Other Unpleasant Realities

By Giordano Bruno of Neithercorp Press

Trigger Points, Black Swans, And Other Unpleasant Realities

An avalanche is not an “event”, it is an epic; a series of smaller
events drifting and compacting one after another until the contained
potential energy reaches an apex, a point at which it can no longer be
managed or inhibited. A single tremor, an inopportune echo, an
unexpected shift in the winds, and the entire icy edifice, the product
of countless layered storms, is sent crashing down the valley like a
great and terrible hand. In this way, avalanches in nature are quite
similar to avalanches in economies; both events accumulate over the long
span of seasons, and finally end in the bewildering flash of a single
moment.

The problem that most people have today is being unable to tell the
difference between a smaller storm in our economy, and an avalanche.
Very few Americans have ever personally witnessed a financial collapse,
and so, when confronted with an initiating event, like the stock market
plunge of 2008, they have no point of reference with which to compare
the experience. They misinterpret the crash as a finale. Untouched,
they breathe a sigh of relief, unaware that this is merely the beginning
of something much more complex and threatening.

So, without personal experience on our side to help us recognize a
trigger point incident; the catalyst that brings down our meticulously
constructed house of cards, how will we stand watch? Will we miss the
danger parading right in front of our faces? Will we be caught
completely off-guard?

The key in avoiding such a scenario is in identifying the primary
pillars of our particular financial system, and tracking them carefully.
Once we are able to cut through the haze of distractions and minor
events promoted mostly by the mainstream media, and focus on that which
is truly important, our ability to foresee danger greatly increases.
But what are the crucial mainstays of our economy, and what kind of
disastrous occurrence could possibly bring them tumbling down?

Mortgage Crisis Redux

The health of property markets is a vital indicator of the stability
of almost any country, but most especially in the United States. The
reason why the bust in mortgage values is so dangerous to our particular
economy is because Americans allowed themselves to become completely
dependent on debt in order to sustain their consumption. We have been
surviving on mortgage loans and Visa cards for nearly two decades! The
fantastical boost in stocks and retail during the late 90’s and early
2000’s was an illusion built on artificially low interest rates and easy
credit. Of course, it doesn’t help that corporate interests outsourced
most of our industrial foundation to the third world leaving us with an
emaciated jobs market utterly reliant on the service sector. Many
people were given few options besides taking loan after loan using homes
they couldn’t afford in the first place as collateral.

Regardless, without the support of solid industry and innovation in a
system to supply employment opportunities and create true wealth (not
debt), we have only “derivatives” and toxic securities, worthless bits
of paper representing liabilities that will never be repaid. Now that
these contracts are known to be worthless, there is only one thing left
to prop up the economy; fiat printing of the U.S. dollar.

Back in 2008, I called the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a
“black hole” of debt which would siphon the last remaining vestiges of
wealth from the American taxpayer, and this is exactly what has
happened. Every quarter, MSM analysts claim the housing market has
“bottomed” and is ready for a rebound, yet, every quarter the mortgage
crisis gets just a little bit worse. It is now projected that Fannie
and Freddie could end up costing taxpayers over $1 Trillion:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37982580/Fannie_Freddie_Bailout_Could_Cost_Taxpayers_1_Trillion

This is a conservative estimate in my opinion, considering both firms
comprise about $5 Trillion of the U.S. housing market, and mortgage
defaults have continued unabated for nearly three years now. Until this
past month, banks had accelerated their foreclosure rates by 25%:

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/09/16/homes-lost-foreclosure-percent/

The more homeowners declare bankruptcy, the more money U.S. citizens
will have to pay to bailout banks and mortgage companies to keep them
afloat, and the more the private Federal Reserve will create fiat
dollars to continue this process. However, a new development has made
this bad situation even more volatile.

In any major economic collapse, there is always another
Jack-in-the-box. This time, it’s in the home foreclosure process
itself. The Attorney General’s office in every state is now
investigating banks like JP Morgan, Citigroup, Well’s Fargo, Bank Of
America, etc, for flawed foreclosure documents, “automated”
foreclosures, and the signing of foreclosure papers without properly
ensuring their accuracy:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-18/u-s-bank-earnings-face-mortgage-scrutiny-as-49-billion-in-value-vanishes.html

These four banks control over 55% of the billing and collections
market in U.S. home loans, while Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac usually own a
piece of every mortgage these companies are involved in. Any sign of
malfeasance on the part of these corporations may indicate widespread
imbalances and fraud. Such news could trigger a flight of investors
away from companies tied to this relapse in mortgage uncertainty, along
with renewed bank failures in the vein of Lehman Bros. In response,
some states have completely frozen home foreclosures. Florida, site of
the third highest foreclosure rates in the country, will continue it’s
freezing of home seizures for at least another month:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-25/florida-foreclosures-still-on-hold-as-banks-say-they-ve-resumed-seizures.html

There are two very big problems with this situation. First, while I am
all for Americans keeping their homes and making life difficult for the
bankers, a foreclosure freeze creates the possibility of a heightened
banking collapse, which could lead to quantitative easing programs on a
scale that dwarfs previous measures. This means even more tax dollars
going into the “too big to fails”. Therefore, globalist banks actually
BENEFIT from a foreclosure upheaval. It could also lead to a direct
bailout of the mortgage market itself. In either case, the response
will be more massive printing of fiat, and a catastrophic devaluation of
the dollar.

Second, foreclosures now make up over 30% of all home sales in this
country. In some states, including California, foreclosures make up
nearly half of all home sales:

http://www.sacbee.com/2010/09/30/3069035/foreclosures-make-up-nearly-half.html

If you think home sales are in trouble now, imagine what will happen
if all foreclosure sales stopped in their tracks for several months or
more! Poof! 30% to 40% of the housing market gone, just like that! I
have no doubt that this would inspire considerable outflows of
investment from the U.S. economy, especially by foreign nations. This
is already happening in certain sectors. Central Banks across the world
recently dumped a record $57 billion in U.S. Agency bonds. These bonds
support such entities as Fannie and Freddie, and an expanded property
market disaster would greatly damage their value:

http://jsmineset.com/2010/09/16/central-banks-dump-57-billion-of-us-agency-debt/

Interestingly, this dump began almost right before the
“foreclosure-gate” issue arose, which suggests that some central banks
were aware that the mortgage crisis in the U.S. would hit a new stage
before it even happened.

Essentially, any announcement of an extended foreclosure freeze would
set in motion a domino effect that is likely to contribute to
systematic failure in our economy, and most especially, in the now
precarious health of the dollar. News of a nation-wide freeze without
an announcement of a time-frame should be considered by those in the
Liberty Movement as a neon red warning sign that the situation is about
to get ugly.

Stock Market Bubble Burst

So much fiat is being pumped into banks and the Dow by the Treasury
and the Federal Reserve it is difficult to tell what is truly going on
in the stock market. There are, though, certain signs we can look for
to gage when a stock bubble implosion could take place. One method is
to track the cash holdings of mutual funds.

When mutual funds have a lot of cash on hand, it often means they
ready to funnel new capital into markets when the time is right. When
mutual funds are very low on cash, this might signal that the market is
ready to begin an extensive sell off. Currently, mutual fund cash
levels have hit an all-time record low:

http://pragcap.com/mutual-funds-are-all-in

This shows one of two things; either the stock market is inflated to
its peak, and mutual funds have invested as much as they can to support
it, or, mutual fund participants are beginning to pull their money out
of their portfolios, in which case, the stock rally is built almost
entirely on infusions from other sources (the Federal Reserve). The
latter is supported by reports of an exodus of investors from mutual
funds since August of this year:

http://www.kiplinger.com/news/article.php/retail-investors-pull-money-from-mutual-funds-is-19929663.html

Both problems reveal a severe weakness in stocks, one that could
instigate an eventual Dow drop on par with the consecutive market dives
of the Great Depression.

Another signal of a stock collapse is the “net short positions” of
Commercial (corporate) traders in the market. When commercials short
stocks heavily, it means they are betting on a substantial fall in
market value. Being that many of these larger banks and hedge funds
have an “inside track” on market information, they are usually correct
in their predictions. Current net short positions of commercial traders
have hit levels higher than any in the past 5 years:

http://pragcap.com/is-the-smart-money-getting-short

In my view, the next extended market drop we see is liable to be the
last. Today’s economy is so unstable, and based on so much faith rather
that fundamentals, any uncertainty in the Dow will pull the rug out
from under us. A sudden 20% to 30% loss in stock values would be more
than enough to create a trigger point in the destabilization of the rest
of our financial system and should be taken very seriously by those in
the Liberty Movement. This could happen over a period of months, or in a
series of flash crashes lasting a matter of days.

Escalation Of Currency Conflict

Recently, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced that the U.S.
had no intention of devaluing the dollar for export advantage over the
rest of the world, and that the G20 should work on “aligning” their
Forex positions to avoid wars over currency devaluation. This is
fascinating, mainly because this statement is completely counter to what
Geithner has been saying for the past couple years. Did ‘Tiny Tim’
grow a heart, or a brain, and realize the currency war rhetoric is a
disaster waiting to happen for the United States? I really doubt it.

Such talk is typical in the midst of G20 conferences, but rarely if
ever does this translate into any positive action by globalists.
Currency devaluations, including that of the dollar, are well underway,
and lip service paid by Geithner is not going to change anything. I’m
sure he’s well aware of this.

The manner in which the currency war plays out hinges on a few key
events. First, legislation put forward in Congress to institute trade
duties on China is awaiting approval before the end of this year. The
passage of this legislation WILL bring on the full force of a currency
fight, and probably the dumping of U.S. T-bonds by China. Second, the
Treasury Department trade report on China, which is expected to label
the country as a currency manipulator, has been delayed even though it
is required by law to be posted every 15th of October. The delay will
probably last until after the November elections:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/7249676.html

If this report is released with the intention of accusing China of manipulation, expect escalation.

Finally, a further loss in the value of the dollar index, perhaps
below the 74 point resistance level, could also result in an increased
dumping of U.S. T-bonds by foreign central banks. Those looking for
preemptive warning of collapse should keep a close eye on the dollar
index as well as foreign liquidations of T-bond reserves.

Escalation Of Resource Conflict

Most people are aware of the import and export implications of a
global trade war. Tariffs and duties are put in place, prices on
foreign goods skyrocket, international investment tanks, and everyone
becomes generally miffed with everyone else. It’s a perfect recipe for a
full scale financial meltdown. However, one factor that is
particularly detrimental to the U.S. is the use of vital resources by
other nations as leverage to initiate a breakdown in the foundations of
our domestic trade.

The U.S. imports everything and produces almost nothing. Trade
duties on China would cause swelling prices on nearly all products,
being that most items we buy are made in China, but this is nothing
compared to the resource and commodity valuations that will follow,
along with the scarcity of materials withheld by governments out of
spite.

Oil, for instance, will obviously be the first resource used as a
trade weapon. For now, crude oil is holding at around $80 a barrel, but
this will not last much longer. The dollar’s world reserve currency
status is intact for the moment, and oil is traded across the planet
almost exclusively in dollars. A dollar devaluation, even in the face
of commodity market manipulation, would eventually lead to an oil spike.
A trade war would exacerbate this scenario by reducing the steady flow
of oil into the U.S. OPEC members are now calling for oil to rise to
$100 a barrel to counter weakness in the dollar. This would bring us
back to $3 to $3.50 a gallon gas, if crude values and supplies remain at
that level:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-15/opec-members-seek-100-a-barrel-oil-as-sliding-dollar-cuts-real-revenue.html

I suspect with added currency instability, $150 a barrel oil is
conceivable within the next 6 months. Two years ago, high gas prices
frustrated Americans, but were still bearable. Today, after two years
of static 20% real unemployment and trillions in lost savings, $150 oil
would crush what’s left of this economy.

Another good example of resource control would be China’s domination
of “rare earth”, a metals material necessary for the manufacture of most
electronics and some military defense products. China regulates about
97% of the rare earth market, and is beginning to hoard the needed ore
(while claiming they will not) in response to economic collapse and
trade decoupling:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-20/china-pledges-to-maintain-rare-earth-sales-official-says-exports-may-rise.html

China’s exports of rare earth fell by 72% in July. The price of rare
earth metals has increased seven-fold in the past six months.
Considering the fact that one of the few industries left in the U.S.,
computer chips, relies entirely on this resource, its use as a trade
weapon is evident.

While mushrooming commodity prices are a good sign of inflation in
the dollar, in some cases they can also reflect the first stages of
trade combat. Tracking them can give you precious insight into more
insidious hazards just over the horizon.

Quantitative Easing To The Max

How many bailouts does it take to get to the center of a
hyperinflationary collapse? Three? Or maybe just one continuous
undefined fiat injection…

Federal Reserve officials meeting on November 2-3 will decide yet
again how much money they will create out of thin air to prop up the
economy. Some estimate that the Fed will pour around $300 billion into
the system, while others are predicting around $2 trillion. I should
mention, though, that whatever sum the Fed openly announces it will be
irrelevant to those who understand how the central bank operates. The
bailouts begun in 2008 never really stopped, and it’s impossible to say
how much currency exactly the Fed has Xeroxed into circulation without
taking a look at their books, which they won’t let anyone do.

The announcement will matter psychologically to those investors who
don’t understand the shadowy nature of the Fed, and blindly believe
whatever they are told.

A statement by Ben Bernanke of $300 billion or less in quantitative
easing will probably have a calming effect on the fall of the dollar, at
least for a short time, and a minor drop in the value of gold. An
announcement of $1 trillion or more in easing will cause greater dollar
instability, and a spike in gold. What mainstream investors will not
comprehend is that ANY stimulus announcement is a very bad sign for the
coming year. The Fed has been tossing dollars into the financial system
at will without oversight and without public approval. Why would they
now decide to make their program public? I believe the easing is meant
to preempt a trigger point event in the markets yet to take place, as
well as set the stage for further global currency tensions. The money
creation that starts in early November will be an extension of that
which has been going on unabated since 2008, but it will also herald a
new phase, one which brings a frightening velocity to matters.

Austerity In A Land Of Excess

A society which has lived for a long time in a state of economic
uncertainty and then faced with austerity measures is going to have to
hurdle some serious obstacles to survive. On the other hand, a society
that has grown used to a luxurious standard of living by comparison, and
then forced into austerity, is liable to freak out padded-room style
and make an unprecedented mess of things.

I honestly cannot imagine the full extent of an American reaction to
austerity. Cuts in social security, medical care, unemployment welfare,
food stamps, education, police, military spending, government jobs,
etc, would at the very least result in rioting, not to mention leave a
lot of starving, homeless people in its wake. This is, of course, what
happens when you encourage dependency on government and a lack of self
sufficiency in a culture. The life of the nanny state is often assumed
eternal, even when its debts and currency are blatantly unsustainable.

According to Citigroup’s chief economist, “savage austerity” is already in the making for the U.S.:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-20/-savage-austerity-is-in-u-s-s-future-citigroup-s-buiter-says-tom-keene.html

A proclamation of austerity measures would be a high profile trigger
point, sending shockwaves throughout our economy. Austerity would
likely be preceded by defaults in municipal debts in cities across the
country, as well as confiscation of employee pension funds. The
government may try to use greater fiat injections to avoid having to cut
certain services to the public, but some austerity will take place,
seeds that will grow over time as the dollar loses its reserve status
and its perceived value. Any sign of austerity in the U.S. is a sign of
total collapse, period.

Black Swans Come Home To Roost

A “Black Swan” is an event which defies predictability and affects
the very nature of a system in unexpected ways. A terrorist attack (or
false flag), which causes investor sentiment to falter and stocks to
disintegrate, would be an example of a Black Swan. Surprise cataclysms
are in most cases only possible when there are already acute imbalances
in a system (which have been ignored by the public) present to act as
tinder for the fire. Like a twisted game of Jenga, global banks have
pulled numerous supports from our financial structure, causing it to
teeter on the brink of oblivion. It is indeed extremely vulnerable to
unanticipated incidents.

There is absolutely no guarantee that life tomorrow will be anything
like life today. Expectations of continuity and safety are a crutch for
those who lack the ability to adapt to changing circumstances.
Accepting the reality of possible upheaval is the first step in
preparing one’s self to weather unfortunate circumstances, or even to
prevent them. By recognizing trigger points in our economy, we can
remove the shock factor, and thus the teeth of the dilemma. By
familiarizing ourselves with the potential for danger, we steel
ourselves to its ferocity. Even the shadow of a Black Swan is nothing
to those who are intuitive, informed, savvy, and capable. The goal for
those of us in the Liberty Movement is to encourage these qualities in
our friends, family, and neighbors, until their ability to foretell
financial and social jeopardy is carefully honed.

One thing is certain; we cannot go on simply waiting for misfortune
to strike like lightening. We cannot play at life, pretending all is
well until the final curtain falls, and acknowledging the need for
vigilance could go a long way in seeing that it never does….

Comments

[Shameful]

Am I the only one that is disappointed?  I mean if your going to false flag us, then wow us.  I was expecting something noteworthy like a nuke or a dirty bomb if they were going to do anything.  This is pathetic.  They still got a couple days, but what a yawner.

[Miles Kendig]

That fact that a the culprit is a loaded ink cartridge is simply priceless

Whoever created this bit needs to be on the comedy channel

[Shameful]

I thought it was a joke when it showed on the news feed "No the ink cartridge bomb is going to be set off on the 3rd".  Are they just playing with us or what?  What's next, Zimbabwe Ben announces he has the biggest ink bomb of all?

[tmosley]

Of course, in mutually assured destruction, just with ink instead of bombs.

Ironically the ink bombs will probably cause more death and destruction than the nukes ever had a chance of doing.

[Miles Kendig]

Thanks for the Chef Ben set up :D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6yDhVyP9oU

+ It's always good to remember where the real power is to be found

[TwelfthVulture]

I think he was on the Comedy Channel the other day.

[Miles Kendig]

Nice play at shortstop by TwelfthVulture

[doolittlegeorge]

really?

[Humpty Pundit]

I am not too optimistic about what happens in congress after the elections. They will probably just continue to function as Robosigners for the bills the lobbyists write! I did read in another article today that Ron Paul will head the committee that looks after the Fed.

[Ludwig Van]

Yeah, Paul's honest, smart, steadfast and true to the original vision. He's always aimed to end the Fed. So he evicts the backhoe operator and machinery, and the rest of us languish for a while in the bottom of a steep-walled crater? Okay. (We're not dumb enough to think the Fed can be removed incrementally, are we?) What a shitty decision to have to make. Sure, we'd figure it out -- or die, or die trying -- as a nation. That's what's required -- to start over. Someone has to preside over that. What a shitty job, as rough as Lincoln's, maybe worse. I think Paul's the guy.

I am optimistic that in the long run America will be back. But for this generation, it's already over and all we're reading, and writing, is its testament.

[Oh regional Indian]

Ron Paul is no McFadden. He is an establishment man, plain and simple.

His son in Tea Party leadership is pay off enough. Don't expect the "other" Mr. Elephant ears to give you any meaningful reform.

Pipe dreams are better smoked AND inhaled. Then, later, you just blow them out.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

[Oh regional Indian]

I'm frankly quite surprised at the junks. C'mon, Kucinich, Ron Paul, different generation, same result. May have started out with great intentions, but to think the system woudl not swallow you whole if you spoke anything other than your script.

Remember Michael Connell?

Vince Foster?

JFK Jr.?

Paul Wellstone?

Ted Stevens recently?

Mel Carnahan?

Blinder off please. It's now!

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

[gwar5]

Ok, so is a herd of armadillos an epic, an event, an omen, or a really strange coincidence?

If it's just a strange conicidence, then for it to be an epic wouldn't they all have to be run over by the same truck at the same time?  Ok then, good to know. 

.

[goldmiddelfinger]

Giordano Bruno

"his tongue imprisoned because of his wicked words" he was burned at the stake. His ashes were dumped into the Tiber river. All Bruno's works were placed on the Index Librorum Prohibitorum in 1603.

[Poundsand]

Good thing those 2k of extra .223 get here in just a couple of days.  Hopefull won't be on one of those UPS shipments stopped because of toner cartridges.

[Uncle Remus]

Hey, did I see that avatar pic on a gun forum the other day? It's priceless.

[putbuyer]

OK I can't resist. Much like Hitler had his brown shirts, now Barry has his too. Fucking unreal. I could not make this shit up!

How about this, stick the little ink bomb up Hillary's ass. Her thighness is a walking bomb detonating machine.

[RockyRacoon]

That's not funny, nor clever.  It is, however, very cruel.   If you think your comment is cute and cuddly -- it's not.  Some objective and serious comment on your part would be appreciated.

[quasimodo]

Yes, because we all know Billary is a saint. Give me a fucking break

[kiwidor]

Remember that photo of the 12yo boy who had his arms blasted off by a cluster bomb in iraq?  I haven't forgotten it, and frankly, that punishment is not harsh enough for most of your political representatives and their ilk.

Your entire nation seems to think that distance and abstract principles are enough to separate it from complicity and culpability.  Your institutions foster the most egregious cowardice and a perfect example is how you execute your criminals.   Electric chair.  Lethal injection.  Note how the procedures ensure that those involved in the killing don't know who actually done it.  5 switches for the chair, no one knows which one is *live*.BZZZT.  3 different chems for the injections, so no one is responsible. 

You are all accountable, but none of you are responsible. 

Now, let's say we were at a little soirée and we had a disagreement, and I decided to kill you.  I can assure you that rather than making a case, internationally, for invading your house, raping your children and hacking off your wife's breasts, and then collectively smashing you to bits,  with each of my friends hitting you once in a different place, until you were dead, so no one could determine who had struck the fatal blow, I can assure you that I would simply smash your head in myself, and take responsibility for it. 

Go and contemplate that you pretentious little striped cunt, because the former, more complex, responsibility-avoidant example is exactly how the USA acts globally.

[RockyRacoon]

Seems as if you have more of a bone to pick with "our entire country" than you do with my comment.  You might want to seek some professional counseling.

[Lucius Corneliu...]

I disagree with his point about oil.  When the world falls back into recession there will be significantly less demand for it.  I suspect commodities will do the same thing they did in the 2008.

[StychoKiller]

Yup!  Kinda hard to justify filling up the SUV, when ya don't have to go to work, due to nearly universal unemployment!

[Miles Kendig]

A far better effort than I could have accomplished

Now it's on to research my next topic

[Eric L. Prentis]

The cocksuckers in Washington are killing us savers/retires, we pay for ZIRP to bailout the bankers. The people pay for high budget deficits to keep the zombie banks from going bust. QE2 is the next insult from the insane Bernanke, which goes to the bankers to support their carry trade (money that does NOT stay in the US to help the people), and increases commodity inflation (especially food and oil) which hits people in the pocketbook, very hard.

 We understand austerity is here (17.1% underemployment rate). We want insolvent bank shareholders to go bust, and bank bondholders to take a major hit, now. This is only fair, but no, the financial elite bastards keep sticking it to the people. Are you listening President Obama?

[Lucius Corneliu...]

He'll have to run that whole "let the bondholders take the hit" idea by the People's Bank of China for approval.  It's not looking good for you...

[doolittlegeorge]

"He's listening" all right.  that's why "he's paying them mulitple visits suddenly."  So much for all that "fat cat" talk now that they "really are."

[Oracle of Kypseli]

Obama was trolling and he junked you.

[SwingForce]

'Nuff Said. Perfect.

[Racer]

many civilisations throughout history thought they were the best and invincible...now the broken states of america are about to join the long line of those who thought they could squeeze more life for themselves out of the lifeless corpses of those they sucked dry.

The end of the dollar as the currency, the end of the US as the warmonger.

Sun Tzu looks to be an author not considered by the Fed idiots

[MorningStar]

For Racer - Yes, all civilizations fall, but they didn't have too.  TIME just had an article on possible civil war coming to America (after the elections on Tuesday).

You mention Sun Tzu.  Need to read a new book out about American that's fantastic.  It's where Americans take a stand & unite.  It's a thriller & so real cause it's about each of us.  Must read!

www.booksbyoliver.com

Tuesday's elections will make little change with "ONLY" 90% of congress members being re-elected instead of the usual 98%.  It's both political parties that got us into this mess. Need to read the book & see if history is calling in our destiny soon.

[StychoKiller]

Once more the Decepticrats will rule the planet!  All hail Obamatron!  (Where's Unicron when ya need'im??)

[Something Wicke...]

Expanded a bit on the ZH story about GE paying 5 bill in taxes on earnings of 639 billion. Effective tax rate. .75%. You gotta be shitting me. Can you check the math. I cheated on the math question to sign up here. No chance of anyone in Congress sneaking in.

http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/

[SwingForce]

Funny as hell, you couldn't cheat if you can see through GE's unpatriotic statement.

[anonnn]

If the rich-and-powerful will do anything to keep their position/status, rather that give it up and become required to work for a living, then BlackSwans are irrelevant and a distraction.

BlackSwans do not stop class-war. BlackSwans only promote violent change or insidious sweet talk [e.g. re the myths "we're all in this together", "be reasonable", "let's stop fighting and cooperate"].  

If class-war be the fact, then what will stop it?

Formulation and agreement upon criminal laws against the trappings of class-war, namely, to set limits on privilege....somehow. I am not smart enough to overcome the somehow.

I recall s/g in the Constitution about equal justice? Oh, wait..that was trumped by slavery.

[JimboJammer]

Go  Tea  Party.... !        Clean  up  Wahington  D . C. 

Why  did  Larry  Summers  quit  his  job  2  weeks  ago... ?

Bingo  ... !        He  knew  this  was  coming ..

Throw  Chris  Dodd  and  Barney  Frank  in  Jail  for  20  years..

[barkster]

and pelosi and reid and schirmer and lieberman and ad infinitum...

[Yits and the Yimrum]

if there was a ballot proposal to put demo publican politicians and their lackeys in concentration camps, then I might consider voting

otherwise, it's a complete farce for the kool-aid forces of statist evil

[StychoKiller]

Great, so now all the servants are in the pokey!  What's next?

[Buck Johnson]

The Austerity measures in a land of luxury is right on.  Americans can't fathom losing almost everything they where counting on and/or losing benefits and the coveted govt. jobs.  They will go crazy, pure and simple.  We believed the propaganda and we didn't realize all it was is just that propaganda to keep people in power and to keep your mind on other things while they steal from you.  Even our politicians to my dismay believed it also.  What is the propaganda, it's the exceptionalism of the US and that when we do it it's okay and reality has no effect on us, we make our reality.  Reality is coming and when it hit us it's going to have decades of potential energy behind it.

We won't get out of this mess for at least 20 years, especially if we lose the dollar as the reserve currency.

[samsara]

And the underlying premis of that state of mind that makes it believable is that "Growth" is a divine right, and is as  constant as the morning sun.

Retrograde doesn't exist.

At the same time logically you understand Finite Resources like Gold and Oil and geometric growth progressions going vertical....

Cog Dis

The real trouble is the limited imagination of the average person believe or not.

Think about it.

I'll give you an example.

Told a friend about some of these news items, and he said "I just can't imagine them doing that"

And I said, "Your Lack of Imagination Might Get You killed"

See what I mean

[StychoKiller]

Emperor Palpatine:  "Young fool!  Only now do you understand...You will pay for your lack of vision..."

[Lucius Corneliu...]

Necessity is the mother of invention.  We will survive this, it is in our basic instincts.  However, the adjustment is going to be rather unpleasant for most.

[i-dog]

"especially if we lose the dollar as the reserve currency."

The replacement for the USD is already on its way!!

Here is what I said on ZH 3 days ago:

"by i-dog
on Wed, 10/27/2010
#679542

...... attempt to introduce a single centrally-controlled global currency as a "solution to the crisis of confidence" ... which will more than likely be an electronic currency backed by some fictitious manipulated entity like an SDR ......"

Now, to quote yesterday's 'Christian Science Monitor':

"Introducing the new virtual world currency"

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/The-Daily-Reckoning/2010/1028/Is-hard-currency-on-its-way-out-Introducing-the-new-virtual-world-currency

[Cathartes Aura]

thanks for that link i-dog. . . starting to look more probable *sigh*

[Al Gorerhythm]

Trigger Point Therapy........

Gold

Silver

Oil.

American Honey on the rocks.

[dehdhed]

we'll never make it ... we're doomed for sure ... it'll never work

that's all i seem to read here anymore

get a grip people

[i-dog]

"that's all i seem to read here anymore"

... then you're reading the wrong posts! Try just reading only the "everything's fine ... nothing to see here ... buy more equities!" ones.

[dehdhed]

i was referring to the comments

when it comes to the posts though, it would be nice to read about possible solutions once in awhile.

for instance, your suggestion for a solution to my frustration is for me to go bury my head in the sand ... thanks brother

people just thrive on all this negativity and to me that's part of the problem ... too much easy finger pointing and not enough problem solving because that wouldn't generate as many page views

[i-dog]

Thanks for all your valuable suggestions on the various possible ways out of the mess. We'll put up your alternatives 2 and 3 to the next Plenary Session of the Central Planning Committee and see how they fly.

It's great that we have you here to demonstrate how to put forward rational alternatives rather than just whinging and finger pointing [at ZH].

[dehdhed]

hell if i know what to do, but being so glum doesn't seem to be the beginning of a solution.

i can't change the world, i can only change me.

[RockyRacoon]

Trudging the road of happy destiny is what it's all about.

[StychoKiller]

For an alternative view:

http://dissidentvoice.org/Nov05/Carpenter1102.htm

[dehdhed]

thanks

[Lucius Corneliu...]

+1

[Ying-Yang]

Perhaps no extension of the Bush tax cuts as the red team and the blue team won't agree on the folks makin' more than 250k.

Common folks are in awe as Barry Soto and Congress procrastinate too long and more revenue flows into the Gov beginning 1-1-11.

Since the Gov debt is too high after Bushie/Obamarama/Bennie transfered bazillions onto the backs of the taxpayer... 2011 is the time for the useless eaters to take on austerity.

Punish the plebs now that the patricians are pat with property and my precious metals.

Damn you Rome and damn the torpor of the bourgeoisie.

"You Maniacs! You blew it up! Ah, damn you! God damn you all to hell!" George Taylor (screaming) 

Heh....

[SwingForce]

What's the difference between a mortgage and a Treasury Bond?

A mortgage is backed by Wood, Nails, Bricks, toilet bowls, and yes, Cesspools at 50% off SALE PRICES! 

Still it is real value.

[Lucius Corneliu...]

If you can prove the title.

[twotraps]

yes yes outrage and tipping points...what are you Doing about it???  What action will you take??  Where can you go to protect your cash??  What Active Steps Can You Take????  You can go back 40 yrs in the papers and read about how the country was teetering because of this or that, its great perspective thats hard to argue with.  I do believe the stakes are higher now since the cumulative result of credit and inflation has created truly staggering numbers made more precarious by the speed of information and transactions.  30 yrs ago there may have been problems but the stock market melting down in minutes was not one of them.  So, is 2010 just the next episode in the larger drama or is this time different.........either way, What Action Can Be Taken Now.  What are any of you doing about it?

[RockyRacoon]

What are any of you doing about it?

Reading your brilliant comment.  You got other ideas?

[kiwidor]

Here's an idea, 'coon.

a) capture the folks you all see on telly (politicians, bankers, etc) and torture them for the names of their real bosses.

b) hunt down and kill the real bosses.

c) sterilize the descendants of both groups

d) capture every military leader down to the rank of Lt. Col. of the US armed forces who was in office on 11 september 2001, and execute them by hanging for gross negligence.

Sure, it won't happen, but it's a good idea.  And would be entertaining.

[Fearless Rick]

I find it interesting that almost nobody junks your obvious violence-accepting posts.

Methinks the natives are indeed a bit more agitated than merely restless.

And. no, I didn't junk you. Your ideas are spawned from the seeds of desperation so deftly planted by TPTB.

[RockyRacoon]

I'm afraid that his "suggestions' have about as much merit as a fart in a hurricane.

A nation of people who stoop to the level of their oppressors is not much of a nation.

If we really do have the tools to fix this thing, let's get about it and stop fantasising.

[StychoKiller]

Buying beans, bullets and bullion.  Got a better idea?

[twotraps]

oh, another thing, fuck your math problems.

[samsara]

Hmmm.... The symbolic Toner Cartridges thing. 

Like it was a message or something.

How about this,  It might be something like the genoveses vs the gambinos.

And the cartridge thing was something like a horse head in the bed?

Different factions,   Turf War type of thingy

[tip e. canoe]

now that's putting your thinking cap on

[putbuyer]

Wake up. Buy some rural land.

[RockyRacoon]

Just tell me where yours is -- that's easier.

[wisefool]

WRONG. AgLand property taxes went up 10% in my area this year. One year. Or Y-0-Y for the MSNBS interns earning $75k/yr to "watch" this "blog." If they keep taxing me, I'll keep letting it go fallow.

[delacroix]

a mining claim, can be farmed, as long as you do a little mining. cheap too, and rural

[wisefool]

Are you saying I should become a taxing body, or that I should dig for metals that pay the price of taxing bodies?

[Species8472]

"30% to 40% of the housing market gone"

That would be withdrawing 30-40% of the supply, prices would go up! That would be perceived as good?

[deepsouthdoug]

You forgot about the fact we have dogs and cats living together.

[doolittlegeorge]

"TOTAL CHAOS!"  Remember "it's the voter, Mr. Mayor."  Now "get out of my office!"

[loub215]

Starve the beast... But what will all the gov-dependent-lay-abouts do without their precious programs???

We will cut GDP significantly, and the meltdown will be vicious...

I'm Game!

PS. Are these CAPTCHAs getting harder???

[i-dog]

News just in: "Ink cartridge tested negative for explosive material"

... after causing shutdown of planes and airports ... and SWAT teams chasing after UPS trucks all over the country ... while MSM hysteria is still causing the public to 'duck and cover' under beds....

It will still take days for the MSM hysteria to die down.

[StychoKiller]

To that, I can only say:  "Mission Accomplished!"

[TheGreatPonzi]

The Guardian communists are running a headline about how American conservatives are filthy and monstruous, and how Ron Paul regularly beats his wife and goes to KKK parties.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/oct/28/tea-party...

When you see this, in the first UK media, you know why Europe is in deep shit.

[Cathartes Aura]

A couple of Rand Paul supporters outside a debate between Paul and his opponent for Kentucky senate, Jack Conway, pinned a MoveOn.org activist to a curb with deliberation before one of them stomped on her head, luckily with enough ineptness that the victim was left only with a minor concussion.

rock on amrka, that's pure class. . . apparently the dude that "stomped" on the lady's head later whined "see what you made me do". . .

It also turned out that he worked for the Rand Paul campaign, as the Bourbon County coordinator, a position from which he was hastily dismissed.

red team, blue team, just like sports, you get the supporter's riled, there will be fightin'. . .

(FYI - I didn't junk you)

[Oh regional Indian]

Maybe the end of the Internet as we know it is nigh?

Too many rabble rousers speaking unvarnished truths around here.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

[Moric]

The river flows, down hill, why bother trying to swim upstream? Sure it is possible, but you are at your most vulnerable when you are doing so. We as a society will slowly push towards the spirit of this conclusion every time, until the new solution meets it's limit. This quake of social and economic upheaval is but a side effect of the cure. 

[StychoKiller]

Pity so many millions have to turn into fertilizer first :<(

[Caviar Emptor]

Would anyone in Washington say that cutting back on military spending is a key to debt reduction? At this point anybody doing so risks going to jail or an asylum. But nonetheless it's true. And here lies the key to understanding our problem: we've reached the point where if we cut back we're vulnerable, but if we don't we get even more vulnerable. 

People can go broke by trying to take out insurance for every conceivable thing that can go wrong. Your entire income can easily go to paying premiums. People have to make critical judgements, choices and live by them. 

[i-dog]

"if we cut back we're vulnerable"

Who the fuck would be insane enough to invade America? What would they gain by taking on 300 million armed, starving and broke Americans wanting more iPods and flatscreens?

[Rodent Freikorps]

Anyone who wanted to control some of the most productive agricultural land on the face of the earth.

Vast mineral resources we won't touch, but a conqueror would gladly rape from the land with no second thought of the environment.

Lots of hot blond war brides.

Sounds kind of tempting to me.

[StychoKiller]

I can think of 5,200+ nukular reasons not to!

[BigDuke6]

If you think usa is gonna be invaded by china you are dopey.

mexico is doing that - invasions happen differently now, look at france and the uk - 1 in 4 births is to a muslim.

you remind me of martin sheen, crouching in the hotel room getting paranoid about the yellow man

the usa needs a great leader to come through - the west needs one - just to get a grip on the decadence and laziness of people now.

TO get rid of the something for nothing attitude.

but who have we had/got?

Blair/Bush - total fools.

Obama - useless.

Palin - ok if you want more war.

Ron Paul - like him but he's getting old.

The west cant seem to bring through a leader who will give all for their country - they all are corrupt , self serving wankers.

How come it all went to shit in the last 20 years?

its the facts of life 

1) you get weak you get invaded

2) when the men start to wear make up you get invaded

But not by paratroopers.

[Babycatcher]

"Palin - ok if you want more war"  What the fuck does that mean?  In what way is she "ok"?

And FYI, it's been "going to shit" for a very long time.  What does "men in makeup" have to do with anything?  Women in makeup are just as scary.

[AssFire]

Off topic... but, the death tax is going up to 55% Jan 1.

I wonder if there won't be a few offing themselves to pass on family savings to the next generation. Sad thought on the sad state of this extortionist goobermint's final "exit" tax. (taxed for the third time)

[kitty]

I've wondered that, too. Or how about greedy heirs who can't wait for Granny to kick the bucket. 

[kitty]

"Very few Americans have ever personally witnessed a financial collapse..."

That's about to change.

[Goldenballs]

Chucking paper with serial numbers into the Abyss.

[Tense INDIAN]

200 trillion debt

http://www.suncoasttradingnetwork.com/showthread.php?278-The-US-200-Tril...

[JimboJammer]

This  Story  is  very  well  written...  Good  Job ....

The  US  Dollar  is  Dog  Food.....

[JimboJammer]

Good  Article ,  Good  Job , 

The  Black  Swan  ( in  my  head  )   is  Israel / Iran  war...

the  Sunburn  Missle  will   smash  the  US  Navy ... Big  Time ...

[cdskiller]

Thank you! Jeez. What a bunch of maroons.

[Hook Line and S...]

Oh those very bad banksters!

We call them a criminal syndicate, thieves they are! 

This is a site for discourse of financial matters. And being so, it's kosher to state the obvious, right? 

Let's see, what...is...obvious...

I'm just saying, but just what have any of you produced? If the answer is nothing, then you've stolen what you've got too. This is just an observation so take a quaalude. If I happen to mention a passing of something that smells of morality, it is only for those of you willing to listen to yourself. If you're hearing 'right or wrong' in these comments, it's because its coming from you, not me Mr. 

I not saying it's right or wrong to game a system.

I not saying you shouldn't fight back.

All I'm requesting is that you realize your nemesis has been your bed buddy for some time. So they're cheating on you now. Well, you built your lean-to on the side of a fire-hazard home, and now your pissed. Whine whine whine. 

Everyone here has been sticking a mirror under the coin dispenser at the slot machines. We've been counting cards at the blackjack table, dice dumping, palming, and pulling the hold out dump shot.

So, you figure that these makers of the game are corrupt, and in your righteous indignation slam the game originators for changing the rules mid-stream!

Hey Cognitive Dissonance, don't you think it's a butt load of hilarity?

It's curious that we use a term like 'criminal', a term that penuriously points fingers shouting, 'it's them, they are the ones who have breached the rules and laws of a governing authority'. And WTH, we all knew that entity had no credibility in the first place. Remember Vietnam? Rule of law? Even 4 year olds throw the monopoly board across the room when they see the contradiction. We all knew better when we were 3, or didn't we?

We want our conditioning, we need it. We want the opportunity to learn the great skill of compartmentalization. Now that's power! And the shame you ask? Well, that's cured quite easily with a little more indignation.

Don't get too hard on yourself that you were an accessory to a crime. 

Come on, you weren't there, finger in your cranny dreaming up the creation of a fiat currency, so your not AS guilty. But come on now, if we just 'have' to use law vernacular, you did however, knowingly, and voluntarily participate in the commission of a crime. Perhaps you weren't present at the scene of the original crime (fed printing, HFT, the smelting of contract law, naked short counterfeiting, wearing a Cramer mask for halloween), but you did aid, abet, and incite. Now that you know your nature. I think this is fair to say, since we have collectively decided to label 'their' activities as 'criminal', don't you think it high time we start accepting reality as we continue to comfort, relieve, and assist.

Yeeeaahhh, so which one of you have dumped your bank?

Well?

And which one of you has attempted to transact in barter? Uh... Merehuman? Yes?

And, who here has closed their eyes, looked the other way, and signed their corporate asset soul to birth a mortgage, whereby creating value out of the thin air?

Where is the person here who hasn't benefited in some short-term way either monetarily, psychologically, or have experienced greater physical security from the bubble housing?

And who here has given a rats nalgas that we have exported our inflation to our fast lane challenged asian compadres? I bet Hu FlungPu has something to say about that.

And who has invested in stocks of companies that play exploding tiddlywinks with our neighbors (MIC), a game soon to be played with us. How much money you make? 

What about that beautiful Monsanto abortion of a company that would love to feed you GM corn, suspend you from the roof, and make you drink beer to create the ultimate Kobe Beef US citizen? I did well on that one. 

What about that lucrative squalene/mercury pusher Pharm-complex of ours? Yes, I know, you all have taken the profits from your deals and invested in in educating the public. Me too!

And what do you call a gay Zerohedger that front runs the POMO? (hint: it's not Mario Cuomo). O.K., wasn't that funny at all.

Anyhow, so who among us can proudly announce that we have allowed through our complacency, our inaction, the creation of deranged derivatives of derivatives ad infinitum that can possibly and literally set up such a sewage blow out storm that logarithmic amounts of brothers and sisters abroad will die of starvation, and war conflict.

And what about those of us seeking refuge in PM's. If you're looking at it as a hedge then you're part of the fiat-game-crew. If you're looking at your Gold n Silver buy (didn't say 'purchase') as real money, then you've just moved one step further deeper the snake hole game, as Mr Raccoon might admit.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not currently saying that these things have to be crimes, nor immoralities, nor anything but simple observations of actions ; )

While everybody drowns in the cacophonous kvetch, gnashing their teeth about the great swindle, do you know that some think that the government is looking to 'disappear' them first because of their participation here? I might submit, albeit in a slight self-mocking tone, that Zerohedger's actually are an accessory to the ongoing 'crime'. No worries, you're needed (obligatory: 'until you're not'). 

For part of the team you are! 

The great seeing eye pyramid as it has turned out, is really but a series of smaller and somewhat autonomous fractal pyramids. (Maybe without B9K9 and Mako)

[wisefool]

Explaining to people (like you and this site does) the framework of our excesses is more meaningful than any of the partisan rhetoric.

Why do we have such a high divorce rate? Why so many children out of wedlock growing up with confusion of self identity? Why do teachers and government employees make more than everyone else, but at the same time get the best benefits and pensions? Why are those pensions underfunded? Who is supposed to fix it? How do they fix it?

If people start understanding the concepts of central planning, Fractional reserve banking, debt as money, generational dynamics, the psychology of what keeping up with the jones does to the Smiths, etc we can implement self imposed austerity. Not just in what we purchase. But WHY we purchase things.

Lots of people got liar loans on McMansions to flip them. Lots of people went in over thier heads to "consummate" relationships that were not based in longevity. But lots of decent people went along with it because they did not understand the folly of the framework itself much less how it becomes ingrained in a culture.

1. Family values/Religion (junk me if you like) used to be a control mechanism. (Birth: First rail)

2. Prudent and judicious use of credit standards and the tax code and incentives used to be legitimate controls. (Growth: second rail)

3. The Stock and Bond markets used to provide a way to save for retirement and  keep up with inflation. but with POMO and HFT are no longer legitimate ways to do anything but enhance the estates of the Elite, with government participation. See Bill Gross' tounge in cheek article last week. (Security/insurance: fourth rail) 

4. Pensions and SS now are impossible to sustain without money printing. (Decline/Retirment: fifth Rail)

ALL of these rails/tools are broken or corrupted. Most people are bad at math because they can not understand 3 dimensions. Much less the 5th,6th,7th,8th which is where the TPTB are having to operate in to keep civilization going. If places like this educate people including many of our sub 100 IQ bureaucratic and politicians then so be it. When people can not have some basic comprehension of their reality including governance/control  it always ends in War and Anarchy.

[FiatFrivolity]

Something huge is coming down the financial pipe, I feel it in my water.

[Metropolis_Minx]

Nice article. Scary..but scary has occupied my thoughts for a while now.

M_M

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[No More Bubbles]

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