Guest Post: Trouble Brewing In Credit Markets

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tony Pallotta of Macrostory.com

Trouble Brewing In Credit Markets

Credit markets continue to signal either a weakening economy or outright recession yet equities refuse to pay attention. With daily market volume dominated by intraday traders with no concern about macro data this comes as no surprise. The danger becomes that equity markets have no ability at forecasting any longer. The Great Recession saw equities peak just two months before contraction began. We may in fact be watching the same horrific forecasting ability play out if the credit markets are accurate.

Below are three charts signaling trouble ahead for both the economy and the equity market. Equities have diverged from almost any correlation that existed for years. With a divergence you never know who is wrong. When countless relationships breakdown though and equities are always involved it becomes easier to say truly that "it's not you it's me."

5 Year Interest Rate Swap Spread

 
Corporate Bonds


Bank Of America

And of course the real elephant in the room is BAC precarious close to completely breaking down. Below is a chart of March through May 2009.  Yes you need to go that far back to find support levels and there are few remaining.  Once 9.50 is breached the next stop is $8. At what point do the credit markets shut them out of any capital raises. At what point does contagion in the US banking sector bring this charade call the US Equity market down. If history is a guide we are in fact a lot closer than group think suspects.

 

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Mongo's picture

Equity markets?... what market?

Bleeping Fed's picture

That would be the algo tennis match called the SPX...

max2205's picture

GEEZ. BTFD, what's wrong with you people?!

WestVillageIdiot's picture

I know that Buy the Fucking Dip is a good running joke around here.  It is amazing how in the past 2 years it has not been a joke at all.  To watch some of the momo stocks is just amazing.  LULU now has a market cap that is getting close to Macy's.  Chipotle missed on their earnings and has just continued to skyrocket.  A silver stake through the heart can't even stop these darlings. 

Yesterday I checked out the CMG chart against AAPL.  It is amazing.  They have moved in complete lockstep for the past 12 months.  There literally has been no variation.  One is a yuppy burrito joint with a PE of 60.  The other is the most popular eletronics company on the planet with a PE of 18 or so.  For all intents and purposes the market is treating them like they are Siamese twins (or is that conjoined?). 

I remember pulling our 401k accounts out of the stock market in early 2007.  By about September I was looking like the boy that cried wolf.  This was after being openly mocked for saying that the housing market would crash and bring down the economy.  By the end of 2008 I was looking great on the stock market.  That housing call looks even better, today. 

Patience is a virtue.  If the market looks too good to be true it is.  People are making fortunes now.  They will lose them during the crash.  LULU will break hearts and trading accounts.  So will PCLN and CMG.  It is better to miss the boom than to be a part of the bust.  Don't feel bad if you look a little foolish now.  The shills will look a lot foolish later as sure as condos in Florida in 2005 were ridiculously overpriced. 

max2205's picture

Well you fucked that swing trade up didn't you?....

chunkylover42's picture

You have to admit - they are pretty good burritos.

WestVillageIdiot's picture

The last two times I went at lunch the quality seemed to be way down.  I will not go there once the lunch rush begins.  I also hate that they don't take much care to make sure the ingredients get proportioned properly.  One bite is all rice.  Another bite is all sour cream.  I don't dislike Chipotle but there is nothing special about them. 

rajat_bhatia's picture

I'm loving my gold and silver short positions, Both are gonna fall Big Time!

slow_roast's picture

What is the point of posting the same blase junk on every article which has nothing to do with the actual post?   

r101958's picture

true believer in 'hope and change'.

Doyle Hargraves's picture

Use what's left of my change to get some hopium bitchez!

mayhem_korner's picture

Trolling for reaction, data, sentiment, etc.  Remember ZH is being watched by Big Brother here at all times.

Pegasus Muse's picture

You're probably right.  .... and here I was thinking Rat's Ass was just being a dumbass. 

papaswamp's picture

Define big time....2%?...that ain't big. Even if a debt deal is reached it won't be enough and everyone knows it. All it does is give people a bit longer to stock up. Notice the EU deal gold dropped back to almost the place in 3 days. The US with substantially more debt any deal $3 Tril or less maybe will last a day or 2. I'll get in my last silver buy spree and then say good night. It would take $10 Trillion in cuts/new revenue over the next 10 yrs just to break even...and that doesn't address the debt. The interest rates climb even a half a %...it's all over. The interest alone on $14+ trillion will eat the US alive.

JW n FL's picture

when the markets crash so will the paper gold and silver markets.. thusly giving the illusion that gold and silver cost some insane cheap amount for physical.

 

the numbers he speaks of are the same numbers that trade every day.. not the numbers that put shit in your hand.

papaswamp's picture

oh...I could care less about the paper shit. Have at it then...what ever the prediction on the paper....heck if I care.

Madcow's picture

you think that - now that the only hope of control over a never-ending and parabolic increase in the "debt ceiling" is off the table - that the price of PMs will fall ?

Good luck out there my friend :)

 

snowball777's picture

Congratulations, you have been selected as the hands-down winner of the most-boring-troll-ever award!

RichardP's picture

Please quote the entire line.  Reagan said, in this particular instance, government is the problem.

rajat_bhatia's picture

Awww... thank you so much, i know i didnt try that hard :))

snowball777's picture

Good to know you come by your stupidity naturally. I'd hate to think you were using 'performance enhancing' substances.

 

jkruffin's picture

How do you make the rich equal to the poor?  Cripple their risk on leverage and crash this ponzi scheme once and for all. It doesn't get any plainer or simpler than that...these crooks have to be shut down now and it starts with sending their precious little stocks into the toilet for good.

dwdollar's picture

Is that bullish RobotTrader?

gwar5's picture

BAC is not a founding member of the 1913 Money Trust bankster club. Flush.

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

BAC was founded by Italian immigrants as an outsider organization. None of the MS banks would give loans to Italians at this time. Times have changed. They are now the most insolvent big gun out there.

Tejano's picture

True, but this beast is "Bank of America" in name only. BofA was acquired lock, stock and catchy name by by NationsBank (read NBNC) in '98. But it's still a long way from Charlotte to NYNY.

WestVillageIdiot's picture

They are Bank of America in name only.  If I recall correctly Hugh McColl was at Nations Bank and bought Bank of America.  They kept the name but it really was Nations Bank.  It is the same way everybody that buys AT&T keeps the name even though AT&T is long gone. 

Bank of America is headquartered in Charlotte, NC.  The rest can all be found within a stone's throw of Fraunces Tavern.  That is a big difference.  There is a club and Bank of America isn't in it.

I predict BofA will be chopped up and JPM and the rest will get all of the best pieces. 

butchee's picture

I have been wondering who would be the next zombie to be cannabalized.....BTW, what are the best bits for JPM, and how do they quarantin/isolate the toxins and debride the putrescent from the healthy?

WestVillageIdiot's picture

The thing strangling BofA is the Countrywide acquisition.  The best part of BofA is their consumer banking division, from what I understand.  The Countrywide piece will get busted off and eaten by the feds.  The consumer banking will be thrown to the strongest hyena.

Angelo Mozillo will laugh all the way to the grave. 

chunkylover42's picture

Merrill is no picnic either.  Most of the shit that Countrywide created was bought by Merrill and a fair amount ended up on their balance sheet.  At least with ML you've got an army of brokers and the IB business.

snowball777's picture

Awwww... <tiny violin just for you>

Atomizer's picture

Tyler,

Thanks again for everything you do. This entire flea circus on the debt ceiling debate is exposed within this document. Have a look. Not a short read, but worth it.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/60687838/Congressional-Docs-Wall-Street-and-the-Financial-Crisis-The-Role-of-Credit-Rating-Agencies-V-3-04-16-10

It really is the end of the road for a select few. Can't wait for them to rear their ugly heads in front of J6P eyes.

Atomizer's picture

The real question to ask.. Where is the money being siphoned to?

Three Shell Game - Mats Kjellstrom

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjrmG5wJFOc&feature=related

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

This whole charade will last as long as we have sheeples investing and banksters profiting. Since 2008 when has the reality of insolvent markets stopped their ever higher march?

Tejano's picture

So what? BAC aside, equities can perform well in a currency collapse whereas bonds -corporate or otherwise - are poison. Weimar and Mexico in the 1990s come to mind.

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Only if the company is profitable. Most of the companies on the NYSE are deep in debt depending on deeply indebted people to buy their products. The ponzi lives on.

WestVillageIdiot's picture

It astounds me how people are so quickly forgetting 2008.  By early 2009 in NYC there were businesses closed everywhere.  I believe the country lost 600,000 jobs in January of 2009.  These were companies that said they were making money prior to that.  Of course profits get siphoned into the pockets of the top executives.  The debts don't.

The speed with which things were falling in 2009 was breathtaking.  I went from hearing how Manhattan was untouchable to having my rent decrease by 15% almost overnight.  The hubris of the management company disappeared like a fart in a hurricane. 

It was only massive monetary voodoo that arrested this downward spiral. 

It will happen again.  We all now it.  They know it.  The sheep don't know it but that is what sheep do best. 

Tejano's picture

Perhaps you should get out while/if you can. Hudson River?

WestVillageIdiot's picture

My wife and I have had our first very serious discussions about the permanent exit strategy.  Thank you for the concern.  It is a little scary. 

HungrySeagull's picture

It would be best to get out of Urban areas.

Living in quiet rural area out west or in the south will be a bit... cultural shock but you will be able to adapt and eventually enjoy the slower life. Take it from us, we know.

Wife and I are having discussions ourselves because we would hate to find ourselves having to kill and stack people on our porch simply because the neighbors are hungry and cannot eat.

HungrySeagull's picture

Hmm... I say Sheep, all of them.

However... I recall what happened to Bonsia as well. That is why I retain my statement cities are not that safe.

infinity8's picture

any minute now. this (2011) is a real deja vu of '08 - and people STILL think I'm crazy (read your earlier post and you're not alone)

Tejano's picture

The debt evaporates as the currency melts down.