Guest Post: The Turning Point

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Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:44 | 1377138 hugovanderbubble
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ThankS Charles Hugh,

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 12:32 | 1377876 Highrev
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The June 13-14 turn in the Economic Confidence Model marks an 8.6 year cycle LOW.


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:40 | 1377139 Larry Darrell
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"Simply put, its policies have failed to accomplish anything except prop up a rotten, insolvent banking sector that needs to be declared bankrupt and swept into the dustbin of history."

This could and should have been done a decade ago when the consequences wouldn't have been as drastic.  Still, doing it now is better than waiting and can kicking even longer as the scope of negative consequences continues to build.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:45 | 1377140 HelluvaEngineer
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Exactly where do Bulls think the growth and rising profits are going to come from?

Since when did the Bulltards start thinking about anything? Booyah, all.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:13 | 1377235 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Thats right, as long as the bulltards see their 401K as 'ok', then all is well for the Treasury until they decide its time to seize the 401K's and pensions. 

Bernank and the central bankster cabal did not do all this monetizing to ensure mom and pops could retire comfortably thru their golden years at The Villages.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:25 | 1377265 HITMAN56
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HelluvaEngin...great call on VXX a few days back btw

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:45 | 1377141 Rodent Freikorps
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Cloward-Piven Chaos, bitches.


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:11 | 1377228 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bunch of old-timey street thug organizer nonsense. 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:47 | 1377142 Greeny
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Very interesting Article on possible QE3

"Bernanke said: "A more direct method, which I personally prefer, would be for the Fed to begin announcing explicit ceilings for yields on longer-maturity Treasury debt (say, bonds maturing within the next two years).

"The Fed could enforce these interest-rate ceilings by committing to make unlimited purchases of securities up to two years from maturity at prices consistent with the targeted yields. If this program were successful, not only would yields on medium-term Treasury securities fall, but (because of links operating through expectations of future interest rates) yields on longer-term public and private debt (such as mortgages) would likely fall as well."

Read more: Pimco's Gross Tweets Fed Will Curb Treasury Yields

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:51 | 1377166 Tyler Durden
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We always appreciate when Reuters takes our ideas and observations without attribution:

Bill Gross Warns QE3 Is Coming In The Form Of "Operation Twist" For The 2 Year

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:55 | 1377179 Cognitive Dissonance
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To attribute anything to you would be to acknowledge you which would then require a whole bunch of explaining. Can't have that from one of the MSM keepers of the public (financial) myths.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:57 | 1377187 mayhem_korner
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Maybe you're the new deepthroat.  Take it as a badge of honor.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:06 | 1377204 Cognitive Dissonance
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Only in this case the MSM wants to stuff a rag down Tyler's deepthroat and silence the heretic.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:04 | 1377209 mayhem_korner
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Good call, but methinks the MSM has been losing the battle of silencing the heretics (aka truthtellers) of late...

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:16 | 1377243 Caviar Emptor
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As the old memes die, and events deviate consistently from the old playbook, they find themselves stammering to explain what is going on to the public and even to themselves. Suddenly Tyler makes a whole lotta sense. Wass't that a song Suddenly Tyler  ?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:25 | 1377255 Cognitive Dissonance
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I've thought about this long and hard. And while a growing minority are waking from the dream those who wish to remain asleep will do so and will use the MSM (or anything else for that matter) as a convenient excuse to dream on.

Ultimately it matters not who speaks the truth but who is moved by the truth or lies. Even when the entire stinking edifice collapses I have no doubt the MSM will be used to deflect blame and find scapegoats. As long as lying is still effective truth is immaterial except to those who value it above all else. To those still dreaming truth is not welcome and thus the lies are deemed extremely valuable.

It is not the liars who are the most dangerous, but rather the majority who accept the lies even if they do not believe them. An inconvenient truth is inconvenient precisely because the lie is welcomed and thus very convenient. Truth telling in and of itself is not enough. Truth must be embraced.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:26 | 1377278 Caviar Emptor
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CD: as usual great insight. 

You might be interested: in my travels to different cities in the US recently, I find that in talking to the plain folk out there that they aren't drinkin' the Kool Aid anymore. And not afraid to tell you so. They tell you how bad business is, how everybody's on the defensive and have changed their spending patterns markedly. They think politicians chose not to get it. And they believe in peak oil and global warming more than they believe in evil speculators. To my surprise. 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:50 | 1377331 Cognitive Dissonance
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As I have continued my Johnny Silverseed wanderings I too am sensing a change in perception and awareness. However this might just mean that we are entering a Soviet Union style era where the population doesn't believe its leadership and in minor ways even tries to subvert it yet does nothing to effectively undermine it.

As more and more people are compressed into the lowest common denominator class and need to fight on a daily basis just to put food on their table they will not direct energy towards fighting the greater evil or even protecting the greater good. It is only when they have nothing left to lose that they will act like they have nothing left to lose.

This is why I suspect this insanity will go on for much longer than most here on ZH believe is possible. Things can always get worse and our own inner denial can always put off to tomorrow the revolution that needs to take place today.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 13:24 | 1378076 MrButtoMcFarty
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Inflation is good for TPTB and bad for the unwashed masses/bottom 95%.

That is exactly why inflation is a sure thing for much longer.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 18:44 | 1378978 prophet_banker
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the revolution that needs to take place today"   - so well said +1

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:32 | 1377290 mayhem_korner
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"What is truth?" Pilate asked.  (John 18:38)

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:55 | 1377345 Cognitive Dissonance
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Truth is simply a perception because it comes from an external source and thus is subjected to distortion and manipulation. Knowing comes from within and when sought is irrefutable and undeniable.

(CD 2011)  


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:54 | 1377356 mayhem_korner
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It wasn't a question, CD.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:00 | 1377370 Cognitive Dissonance
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I know. See my smiley face above? I was being silly and foolish. Except about the knowing part.

:>) :>)  <---- two smiley faces, one for me, one for you.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:11 | 1377398 ibjamming
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And WHO was there writing this down?  Nobody...  Yet you believe these words to be TRUTH?


Just making a point...not meant as an insult to you all religious followers.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:42 | 1377496 Cognitive Dissonance
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The vast majority of the Bible was written and gathered together centuries after the fact. In today's world that would be consider hearsay.

BTW I love the fact that the word 'heresy' is so close to 'hearsay'. The manipulation of language has been going on since language was first used. It is embedded directly into our words and phrases and continues to this day.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:36 | 1377686 Raymond Reason
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And that is why Truth and Correct Doctrine are the charge of the Church.  It was always the Church that was charged with preserving Jesus' and Paul's and the early Church Father's teachings.  And if you study the teachings of the Orthodox Church you will find "the gates of hell have not prevailed...". 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:09 | 1377611 mayhem_korner
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What point are you making?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 13:29 | 1378081 falak pema
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That Emperor Constantine did a good job when he chose those who would figure in his bible and those who would not; the latter would then be charged, for time immemorial, by the "official" gatekeepers of the Christian church of Roman Emperor, as "heretics"...and not the true followers of Constantine's spiritual reform of his Empire.

No more Zeus and all those other gods who were growing by the dozen, like a new fad in a decadent empire.

Not on! As cause for internal tension amongst those who continued to worship the traditional pagan hellenistic gods.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:49 | 1377341 SecondComing
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Re: Truth

"A truth’s initial commotion is directly proportional to how deeply the lie was believed. It wasn’t the world being round that agitated people, but that the world wasn’t flat. When a well packaged web of lies has been sold to the masses over generations the truth will seem utterly preposterous, and its speaker a raving lunatic.” — Donald James Wheal

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:00 | 1377362 Cognitive Dissonance
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Nice quote.

I often say that truth isn't the problem. It's letting go of what truth displaces that cause the pain and disruption. Teaching an infant 'truth' is not a problem at all. Teaching an adult 'truth' who has been indoctrinated in a different 'truth' (usually distorted and manipulated 'truths') all his or her life is a major disruption.

The liar always says he is speaking the truth and that the others are the liars. This is why we must all search within to discover our inner knowing.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:22 | 1377433 SecondComing
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There's another quote about inner knowing, CD.  I've said it before, many times, in many forms, and I will write it again for conversational flow:

"I am the Truth."

Even the Cretan paradox cannot disprove the Self-referential nature of Truth.  That is, only I decide(s) to accept or reject this irrefragible ontology. about cognitive dissonance.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:18 | 1377479 Cognitive Dissonance
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In my book there is a world of difference between 'truth' and 'knowing'. You mention a "quote about inner knowing, CD." but the quote then uses the word 'truth'.

Not arguing with you. But the words 'truth' and 'knowing' are often used interchangeably (IMO to obscure and to promote dependence upon an external source for 'truth') and based upon a strict definition they should not.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:09 | 1378415 Dental Floss Tycoon
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"Be still and know . . ."



Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:15 | 1377627 mayhem_korner
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Spot on.  That's why I absolutely hate the phrase "his/her truth" or "his/her reality."  Perceptions are moldable, truth is immovable.  And inference is not truth, either, which is a bad habit the world has picked up.

The most difficult concept I find people struggle with is when they do not know the truth (i.e., they cannot discern it absolutely).  That's when our own, individualized version of the "truth" fills the vacuum.  And we bear it like an absolute, contesting with others as to who's logic holds the most weight.

And in the midst of all that, absolute truths are branded as heresy.

Wonder why the "market" behaves in ways we believe it shouldn't?  C'mon now! 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:21 | 1377633 mayhem_korner
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the Self-referential nature of Truth

You've just called out the sleight-of-hand of environmentalists.  Who's at the center of one's environment?  The irony of the moral high-ground pining enviros is a bottomless pit.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:05 | 1377201 Greeny
Greeny's picture

Thank you very much, Tyler, great read, very informative.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:38 | 1377484 mendigo
mendigo's picture

for what it's worth, i have seen zh cited by Colin Barr

there are more raw facts here on any day than in a month of msm articles and many of the facts will never show-up on msm 

should be pay service

i wish your articles were posted or could be viewed as a thread

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:48 | 1377532 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

That SP 500 1965-2011 chart is one raw fact that should scare the crap out of anyone who really looks at it. Go on, stare at it for a while and watch what it says about our bloated society. Its under-lyings, reading from left to right, range from Meh to OMG!!!, and the scary part is it is only one metric of the unleashing.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:07 | 1377603 mendigo
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possibly, but needs to be viewed in light of inflation - particularly now that goldman runs the presses

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:16 | 1377222 nevadan
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If this program were successful, not only would yields on medium-term Treasury securities fall, but (because of links operating through expectations of future interest rates) yields on longer-term public and private debt (such as mortgages) would likely fall as well."

The key words in the Bernank's statement is "if" and "likely".  It starts with an assumption "if it were successful" and ends with a prediction "would likely fall as well".  Based on his track record of economic predictions there is a high probability that just the opposite will happen.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:46 | 1377144 Badabing
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Lets see the charts priced in gold

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:55 | 1377167 mayhem_korner
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Priced in Ft Knox gold it goes to infinity.  :D

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:12 | 1377229 chartcruzer
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ask and you shall recieve,   beware its UGLY[s235939273]&disp=P

can you say "road to nowhere"?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:20 | 1377242 mayhem_korner
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Ouch.  'most put my eyes out.  Be careful with that thing.

More of a "down escalator" than a "road" to me...


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:21 | 1377260 Badabing
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Thanks i just puked

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:13 | 1377615 mendigo
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now that's the real deal - tobagan ride the hell (bitches)


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:43 | 1377146 yabyum
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This is going to hurt. You can't keep this propping up shit forever.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:47 | 1377149 razorthin
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You never, ever argue with the technicals.  Sorry, I know many here do not agree, but it is my conclusion in reviewing my successes and failures.  If you look at historical market data and the concurrent fundamental stories, you will find an almost perfect inverse relationship at major turning points.  What the technicals predict seem to magically materialize in the fundamentals (public knowledge that is) a short time later.

That said, I don't think we are nearly at the sentiment extreme for a major reversal.  Minor counter-trend bounce, sure.

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