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Guest Post: What Could Trip Gold Up?
Submitted by David Galland of The Casey Report
What Could Trip Gold Up?
Can you visualize a possible scenario that could put a sudden end to the secular rise now underway in gold and silver?
In a recent conference call with the research team of The Casey Report, we once again collectively tried to imagine what situation… what scheme… what government manipulation… might finally put a stake through the heart of gold.
Setting the stage, I think it’s safe to assume that in order for the gold bull to decisively reverse direction, the following general conditions would have to be precedent in the economy:
1. The financial crisis will have to have ended. Which is to say that…
1. Unemployment would have to begin falling by significant numbers – with 300,000 jobs or more being added month after month, instead of being lost.
2. The housing markets will be stabilizing. Foreclosure rates would have to fall to more normal levels (and not because banks are forced to postpone the process for legal reasons, which is the case now), and sales would have to accelerate in the right direction.
3. Government deficits would have to be sharply curtailed and heading lower.
4. All quantitative easing will have ended.
5. GDP will have to be on sound footing and rise based on sustainable, private-sector growth – not based on the activities of government, which loom so large today in the calculation.
2. Real interest rates – the yields you earn over the actual rate of inflation (not the fabricated numbers ginned up by the government) – will have to be solidly positive. Which, of course, is a big problem given the sheer magnitude of the outstanding debt. Rising rates will only beget more debt.
3. The monetary base of the country will have to be contracting, not soaring as it has been in recent years. The following chart from The Casey Report a few months ago tells the story of runaway printing, and of why gold is so strong by comparison.
Inherent in the list just above are other conditions that will have to be precedent for gold’s run to end.
For example, politicians around the world will have to find the uncharacteristic courage to act in ways that are deeply unpopular with the very voters that brought them to office. Namely by slashing the scale and cost of government, with all the many cutbacks in subsidies and services that such a Great Downsizing must entail. And this rare new breed of politician would have to retain their jobs long enough to see through the reduction in government that must occur if stability is to be regained.
Of course, for the politicians to retain their jobs despite voting in deeply unpopular cuts to government spending will require that the voting public adopts a long forgotten stoicism and becomes willing to take their licks without running to the government for relief.
Very much not the case with the students in London who last week started tearing things up over a proposed reduction in tuition subsidies. Video here.
In addition, the world’s governments will have to step back from the brink of the full-scale currency wars now darkening the horizon and move to restore confidence by tossing their fiat monetary systems over the side in favor of something more limiting. Absent a return to some semblance of monetary sanity, the purchasing medium that gold has compared so favorably to in recent years will continue to weaken, and gold will continue to rise.
Then there is the matter of energy. Civilization’s ascent into relative prosperity is tightly related to the widespread availability of cheap energy. In the current context – as opposed to the perfect-world vision of a green energy future – we need the dirty stuff, and lots of it, if we are going to avoid serious economic pressure that in turn keeps the Treasury and the Fed throwing money into the furnace.
Like them or not, there’s no denying that coal, oil, and nuclear are the proven sources of base load power. Sure, implement the latest technologies to mitigate negative side effects, but don’t let that stop us from fully embracing their development and production. Which means the government needs to stick the many new “green” regulations back on the shelf for a day in the future when we can actually afford them. With oil stubbornly pushing back toward $100 per bbl, now is not that time.
Even that incomplete list of the hurdles to be climbed before the crisis can end, and before gold’s run ends as well, begins to communicate the challenge in finding a scenario where the world’s governments don’t opt for currency debasement. Or, put another way, where governments turn their backs on the default practice of using counterfeit money to buy their way through the next day, the next month, and the next election.
That’s the “easy” way out… versus the really, really hard work required to essentially turn back the clock on decades of expanding government and the currency debasement that expansion has required.
And so, as hard as we try – and we try very hard – we inevitably come back to the conclusion that the government is now tightly caught between a rock and a hard place. And that, as a result, the loss of confidence in government and its fiat money, which is now evident in gold’s rise, is very likely to continue and grow even more extreme.
This scenario is not a pretty one, and even those of us who have taken measures to protect our assets won’t like what the world looks like once gold hits $3,000 an ounce… or who knows how much.
Germany’s hyperinflation, even after burning out, helped set the stage for Hitler’s rise. In other words, anything is possible.
So, What Could Make Gold Go Down?
In the late 1970s, then Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, wielding an ax made up of high interest rates, lopped the head off the gold bull. Leading up to Volcker’s draconian solution, I can well remember the broadly held impression that gold could only go higher. His extreme actions changed that impression almost overnight.
That scares me, because there is a similar – albeit not nearly so widespread – meme going around today.
Let me share with you a couple of “out of the box” ideas for how the U.S. government might torpedo gold’s further advance today, in the same way that Volcker did back then. (As for the rest of the world’s governments – sorry, but it’s everyone for themselves at this point.)
- Overt debt default. In this scenario, Uncle Sam rolls out of bed one morning and announces that Treasury debt will henceforth be redeemed at only pennies on the dollar. To lessen the domestic political blowback, perhaps he announces a process whereby domestic holders are redeemed at a higher rate than foreigners… or maybe he most disadvantages debt held by those foreigners labeled as currency manipulators. There is much historic precedent for this extreme action – and, other than some negative consequences over a relatively short initial period of time, countries that have defaulted have suffered no lasting effect. Case in point, both Russia and Argentina now have debt-to-GDP ratios well under 10% – among the lowest in the world. In concert with resolving the debt, the government could promise a new regime of austerity, as well as issue a new dollar with at least some limited backing. Change-o, presto, problems solved, and gold heads into the tank.
- Tired of dealing with the “gold vigilantes,” Uncle Sam simply outlaws gold ownership. Hey, it’s happened before. But what about the price of gold in this scenario? Our own Terry Coxon comments…
Prohibition would force U.S. holders to sell, which by itself would tend to depress the price. However, I’d bet on the price going up because the prohibition would be a signal to the rest of the world that the dollar’s sponsor had gone completely off the rails.
Still, who knows, maybe an international consortium of nations could agree to ban gold – kind of like how they all now ban heroin? Unlikely, but desperate times call for desperate measures.
- The U.S. adopts a gold standard. In this scenario, Uncle Sam, his back against the wall, agrees to henceforth link the dollar to gold at some fixed price. With concerns over unlimited government spending capped, gold might hold at the fixed price while awaiting further signals. Of course, what that fixed price might be is anyone’s guess – although it would almost certainly be a lot higher than it is today.
Our own Marin Katusa has identified one possible sleight of hand that could be deployed should the U.S. decide to return to a gold standard – and that would be to nationalize all the nation’s gold deposits, then use the inferred resources in the ground as backing for the currency. An interesting thought, as it would greatly reduce the price of gold necessary to reach full backing of the dollar.
While each of those three scenarios carries further implications, they may just pass the test of being politically feasible – which, in this government-dominated world of ours, is all-important.
Unfortunately, only the first – overt default – would actually make a dent in solving the gargantuan overhang of debt that now torments the global economy. As such, only overt default mitigates the need for the government to continue its insane deficit spending or the debt monetization required to support that spending.
In the end, it’s hard to imagine that there’s a way the government could get out of this situation without the country – and the world – going through a crash for the history books.
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It would actually be quite simple to lower the gold price in terms of dollars: adopt policies to strengthen the dollar.
When food shortages come and malnutrition is rampant the global population may start shrinking. this would be bad for gold I would think.
Uncle Sam rolls out of bed one morning a says, "Treasury debt will henceforth be redeemed at only pennies on the dollar."
Haaaahhhhaaaaaaaahahahahah! They're irredeemable now!
If gold tanks then I'm opening an account with the First National Bank of Mars in Martianbux. I think I have seen a few of the Central Bankers flying around lately, maybe looking for the vampire sqidd.
I wonder what gold would do if Ron Paul was elected president. On one hand he probably would slash the spending and make is best effort to balance the budget. On the other, one of his policies would be to make PMs legal tender. Interesting thought experiment no?
LOL. And you can buy Mr. Casey's "Crisis Investing:
Opportunities and Profits in the Coming Great Depression "
Rasputin
- Sun, Oct 10, 2010 - 06:25 PM
...which predicts total scroomage, here:
http://www.amazon.com/Crisis-Investing-Opportunities-Profits-Depression/dp/0936906006
...for a penny.
Yes, that's right. This scroom screed can be yours for a mere
Lincoln 90% zinc penny.
Oops, Rasputin almost forgot to mention the date of this tome of
doom:
Early 1980's.
Nearly thirty years ago.
And Ras WAS the proud owner of a copy.
In it, Mr. Casey recommended to avoid stocks and pile into whips
and spoons.
Hmmm, how did that advice work out for the people who followed it?
But any minute now, the "Next, Newer, Bigger, Great Depression" is
gonna scroom us all...
LOL.
Image #1:
Fine. But how's that Dow/Gold ratio working for you the last ten years Robot? Maybe you should call yourself CherryPicker instead?
Mr. Greenspan emphasized that he sees no sign of a nationwide housing bubble, but he acknowledged concerns over "froth" in the market and pointed to a big increase in speculation in homes - particularly in second homes. As a result, he said, there are "a lot of local bubbles" around the country.
And what does Greenspan and housing have to do with my comment? Nothing.
Robot loves to CherryPick and discredit goldbugs. Why?
Holy cow. Gold is a nats ass compared to silver. If anything knocks gold down it'll be a silver crash. Golds acting like the xlf for the last few days
Other scenario's:
Scenario 1: What if POMO funds are used to short metals
Scenario 2: A massive increase in margin requirements
Scenario 1: Create a great buying opportunity! Prices shoot to the moon when physical delivery is asked for. Look at what is happening at the crimex now. Large moves in the price of silver but the longs don't budge. Also pay attention to the recent extraction of physical from vaults.
Scenario 2: Again, create a great buying opportunity. Margins were greatly increased on silver. Seems to be recovering rather well. Well over 27 at last check.
*shrugs*
For the past maybe 2/3 days I've been seeing explicit signs of USD/AU correlation on certain FX pairs and not the inverse kind. Might be the kind of thing that throws a spanner in the works.
Seriously, would it not be in the interest of those who control the money supply to destroy the one currency that trades commodities? Have the world on their knees begging for a solution, what is that solution? One world currency. Process repeat, oligarchy, new world order. Think about it.
I could care less one way or another about gold, unless bartering/blackmarket comes back. If the price goes up I will be happy! If it goes down I can sit around and admire my pretty pile of golden paper weights! Either way its going to the next generation for their future not mine.
Don't forget the giant transmutator in the franco-helvetic border will soon start churning out MASSIVE quantities of gold. Guess now they are banging their heads for cancelling the SSC....or did they really?
They could create a tax on PM sales or say PMs must be held for a certain period of time or higher capital gains tax applies and so forth.
I think that if there was a sizable crash in the share market (back to 2008 lows or lower) that gold would also dip considerably. In effect, everyone will need to cash in their gold to pay for the losses they incur elsewhere. The speculator component of the market shrinks. This happened in 2008. Silver went from $20 to under $10. Gold went from $1000 to around $750. I believe silver goes down more due to it's commodity uses.
It is also possible, that despite the dreadful (purposeful?) mismanagement of the US$ it too could rally in a stock market crash. The "flight to safety" play. It would be a very volitile time, put it that way, $100 moves in gold or more per day. It may be worth keeping some cash handy in case a bargain situation happens and you can buy physical metal on the cheap -- before shortages make that impossible. I would like to get more silver myself....
I have only been following all of this for about 9 months. But this seems to make a lot of sense and has been exactly what I have been doing for the past 45 days. I stopped my buying of PM's and have been saving money...Hope it works out.
Rumpelstiltskin found living in basement of FRBNY.
The Bernanke claims he can spin all the gold the world needs.
Gold prices plummet.
Dollar saved.
Buy straw.
The Us hands are tied to an extent. The world is full of problems and it's unlikely the whole of the world will stabilize. Even should the US declare gold illegal or launch a all out attack on it, it does not limit gold ownership overseas, or kill the overseas market. Indeed if the US were to publicly move against gold it might cause a panic and should dollars rush back to the US it's game over. And good luck getting the Asian nations to outlaw gold ownership.
Federal Reserve transcripts.
I never see them here, figured they'd be popular.
A Greenspan talking about manipulating gold in real time.
Have you all read them?
Can somebody help me understand what his logic is for a debt default hurting gold?
If we defaulted, how would gold not go through the roof? Chaos and no monetary system would be ideal for gold. Especially, after the dollar was re-pegged to gold or a commodity basket or whatever...
The US has already "solved" the problem of gold. What it is trying to do now is "solve" the problem of other fiat currencies, i.e., drive them out of existence.
Long time it's been, Charles. Salut.
Fester
Overt debt default. In this scenario, Uncle Sam rolls out of bed one morning and announces that Treasury debt will henceforth be redeemed at only pennies on the dollar. Change-o, presto, problems solved, and gold heads into the tank.
Huh? Ask Iceland how that worked out for them. Next, buy some gold with Krona. Then get back to me.
Just so I understand, if the US were to default on its debt, it would all blow over because it did for Russia and Argentina. Uh....I think a US debt default would be a little more onerous than that. This article is a bunch of shit. The only thing that would end the gold bull market is when adults get in charge of the gov't and do what is necessary to get the country on the right path. However that will take A LOT of pain. Pain no one wants to take on right now. Howerver, the pain is coming one way or the other.
Prosecution and capital punishment for bankers... for fraud....in making fiat loans for which they do not have the capital (counterfeiting) marked to market. .
That would lay the foundation.
It's the only possible foundation outside of public banking or a new currency regime like the U.S. Treasury Note.
otherwise it's crime/punishment.
Obama and his DOJ are great for gold.
Fact:Gold less then one ounce per person
Silver less then 1/2 ounce per person
if all ounces of pm were equaly distributed on earth.
These metals are really rare and espescially silver
is still very affordable.Looking foward and see the
ounce price of today be the future price of a gram!!
I was picking up some silver eagles this weekend, and got in a conversation, with a woman, in the coin shop. I let her hold one of my new coins, and told her why I was buying. she said, I want one, and proceeded to buy one. a small victory, but sweet just the same.
very good article - thanks
Change human nature and you could trip up Gold...
What could trip up gold?
Nothing.
the following general conditions would have to be precedent in the economy:
Precedent is not easily confused with present.
It's clear there is no way out of this mess without eveyone getting a lot poorer, except maybe those holding PMs. If you were a government trying to gain favor with the majority what would you do? You would proclaim yourself the party of fairness and say it is unfair that a small minority profits in time of crisis. And you would tax away all the PM gains. This I think is the biggest risk. Nevertheless I own gold and am not selling (unless I need funds to pay for the small farm I intend to buy).
Some of you will say own physical to avoid taxes. Maybe. But there could be a bunch of angry citizens watching to report (or lynch) any PM "speculator".
let's thought experiment that...who holds gold? Rich people. Have they gotten taxed to "pay for all this" shit?
Nope. In fact, the fight now is to preserve their Busch tax cut.
Defaulting on debt would create deflationary effects on money supply. I could see that occurring if the US fabricated a trade or hot war with a major bondholder( read China) with the US saying, " well, fuckers, we ain't paying." that happened in World War 2 where debt resolution was through catastrophe. Debt resolution previous to that was called the jubilee. Unpayable debt, dying economies and banker stranglehold was broken with a king declaring jubilee- and killing the lending class off for the ratings. Too much debt grinds any economy to a halt and has to be resolved by payment or erasure. Even with a 2x gold standard, gold was a great investment in the 30s and so were miners. Look at homestake mining. Gold collapsing in a currency deflation is a fantasy- because gold is money and is just as liquid as a tight dollar. Going on a gold standard would destroy all the economies of the world and also would lead to starvation, hoarding and general mayhem. Gold would be worth like 80,000 an ounce. There could be a multi metal standard to increase money supply- but we need to wipe out derivatives and worthless assets like ETFs and things that have no end value. That's 100 trillion of nothingness pretending to be money and leverage. Any step these guys take besides stealing the gold by confiscation and taking the market out of it is not going to effect gold...period. The Volker period was not a secular credit implosion like today or the 30s. The 70s were pretty lean compared to the printing idiocy we have now. Also, now that we know the FED banks are naked shorting metals, they can't control it nor can the ImF with their phantom gold holdings. Game is over.
How does defaulting on trillions of bonds and credit throttle gold value. Remember when the banks were on the verge of nationalization in March 2009 and both the dollar and gold nominal and real value shot like a hot rocket.
Gold is the default reserve currency- not just an inflation hedge. Gold is money and acts like it in a deflation.
Defaulting just raises the spectre of fiat being a convenience- you can't have your gold defaulted on if it's in your hot hands.
I personally own lots of miners, as they are real gold futures and probably will not get nationalized like the metal. I really think the government is aiming to illegalize gold private ownership- or has little choice. With the wealthy positioning themselves in gold bullion to become the governments lender of last resort. See JPmorgan in various collapses
how much is ALL physical silver in the world worth today? approx?
I'll take a crack at that. A reply above said there were some 3 billion oz of physical silver in the world today. It is apparently true that there is LESS silver (oz) than gold, and there is about 6 billion oz of gold, so 3 billion is a reasonable place to start.
3 billion oz * $25 / oz = $75 billion worth of silver at market (COMEX) price.
Ah, but what if we PM fans are right...? Hmm, silver goes to $100 (high, but quite possible) then that is $300 billion. And that's just silver. Does not count what gold would be worth (trillions). All above calculations are non-inflated 2010 dollars.
There is very little doubt in my mind that we will see $100 silver.
Glad to have other people trying to poke a hole and evaluate alternatives to the $$ collapse. Left out of the default evaluation were the individual state's debt, public employee pensions, unfunded medicare and social security. Everything I've seen in history suggests debasement is the likely course and I don't think it would matter if the gov. tried to confiscate or purchase all of the privately held gold. In the late 1920s and 1930's England first went off the gold standard and essentially defaulted on their debt, then they went back on it for a few years before going off it again. The fiscal discipline was probably unbearable, but it was all orchestrated by the BOE. The swings in currency and asset values based on those actions did have a major impact on markets and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Fed tried it here too.
When the BoE went back on to gold, they over-valued the pound.
It destroyed British competitiveness and they were forced off it.
Which means that the default will happen, either a de jure one or at least a de facto one, when the banksters are correctly positioned. Not before. But it will happen.
All the currencies and governments of the world are being simultaneously devalued and destabilized. The people behind the scenes who are manipulating circumstances to fit their plans have no intention to allow measly gold-bugs to block their next moves. With very little imagination it is easy to see that they intend to introduce a new global cashless system. A system in which it is a violation of economic global law to use anything other than the specified legal tender mandated and agreed upon by all of the destabilized governments. Global troops will be happy to have a job enforcing whatever their employers decide is best for the people of the world. Any legacy currencies and/or metals that upset the new economic global stability will be forcibly confiscated. Since national sovereignty will be a thing of the past, all governmental decisions about economics, ownership, and distribution of goods will be decided by those best able to determine sustainability.
Sound familiar?
For now we are allowed to dream.
Nanotech. Transmuting lead into gold is now a reality, just kept under wraps for the time being.
Nope. Go back to your nuclear physics textbook. Nanotech does not "do" atomic nuclei.
Care to provide a source? Even an Internet source?
...
tmosley, your help here would be appreciated. Please (metaphorically) take this guy out back and have him shot (by explaining better than I did).
you're asking an oil peak denier for help on a matter of science? LOL.
We've got all kinds of tinfoilers on this thread, the cold fusion people, the limitless energy from gold nuclei smashing at .99999c, and all the rest of that shit.
What is next, dilithium crystals and artificial black holes?
What's next? Imaginary money!
*adjusts tin foil hat*
As gold became cost prohibitive fo use as sound money; paper and ink to fiat FRNs; so to will storage and CPUs to digital money. Then imaginary will prove its superiority.
I am personally optimistic that we may discover that the missing mass (dark matter) of the universe is, in fact, money.
If there is nanotech that can build atoms on an proton by proton level AND it can be done on a mass scale then where is the fear of anything?!?! Means free unlimited power and endless resources for all. Would turn Earth into a paradise and allow terraforming of the solar system.
So you'll pardon me if I don't believe that they have uncovered that form of magic. And if they do when what do any of us have to worry about...other then it going out of control and turning earth into a giant Von Newman machine?
So what if the government outlaws gold? We'll just use those Mexican drug tunnels to move our gold Mexico way.
melt it into a giant calf and start a synagogue?
The gov outlawed bullion hoarding, not jewelry...there's a hint in here somewhere for you
Wondering if my wife will let me paint her head to toe like that chick in goldfinger....
The only measurement of money (credit) worth watching is M3. If it collapses, then so will gold. The FED is highly constrained from further monetizing as there is internal and external dissent that Bernanke is fighting. Furthermore, the debt that has been monetized has effectively just been used to repair bank balance sheets. With money velocity at zero credit will not grow. The next wave of deflation is going to take gold down with it, just like it did in 2008.
Deflation now would invlove contraction of sovereign balance sheets, not corporate ones, not even the banks.
Don't see how thats going to pan out.
Far more politically palatable to have stagflation, and blame on some external party.
The next wave of deflation is going to take gold down with it, just like it did in 2008.
I'm reasonably sure that is the plan; but what then? Can The Ben Bernank actually juggle well enough by printing just enough and deflating just enough to save the banks but crush the middle class and get them to accept loss of status and (lower) wage slavery? This means the obvious question is: what has to happen politically to make that possible? Sadly, we know the possible answers...
I remember reading similar stories 10 years ago about why the Nasdaq wasn't going to stop at 5000. You know, the internet is still in its infancy, the Boomers still have 10 yrs before retirement, the Nasdaq hasn't surpassed the Dow yet, etc etc etc.
When the dollar collapses into hyperinflation, because it is the reserve currency, it will take every other currency with it. At that point the world will have to convert to a gold standard, there's no alternative.
Since all countries will need new currencies based on gold reserves, they will try to confiscate all the gold in the world. Afterwards, the public price of gold will be frozen in the new currencies. Gold possession will be outlawed (as it was in the USA after 1934), so black market gold will be priced at a premium.
However, the process of crashing the world economy will send gold to stratospheric levels before the authorities can establish the new price in new currencies. There are various ways to compute how high it will go, but between $10,000 and $100,000 per troy ounce is an order of magnitude that keeps coming up.
If right before the seizure, you sell your gold and buy hard assets, will be rich even in the new currencies. Good luck with that. But that will be the end of the gold run.
no need to seize gold, too little of it in the wrong hands
All I know is that more and more silver bullion store have pretty low stock levels.
Just try to order 100 oz coins that don't cost more then 3,5$ above spot.
Or try to order 20 10 oz bars.
not many that can still handle it.
Volcker success was supported by bubble price of 800$. Fair value at the time was about 400$. The Spike was a panic reaction caused by Iranian revolution and Iranian new regime buying gold. When they stopped, it was easy to pool price down. Since than price suppression scheme started and lasts until now, but failing greatly since 2000.
Gold may be stopped only by next global 'redemption'. It will be treated like illegal drugs, every PhD economic clown 'knowns' it caused Grade Depression, so it must be simply banned for 'greater good' ( better imprisonment conditions ).
Well, OK then... for a minute there I thought you were going to tell me gold was actually going to go down!
You see it the way I do. The Western countries are broke beyond imagination. No escape.
The Western fiat credit empire is collapsing like a fat old Soviet Union.
The Russians scrambled to get gold, food, cars -- anything, because their currency was no good.
Gold is best.
Greenspan got out when he did so he wouldn't be blamed for the nightmare about to unfold.
He's having breakfast and laughing his ass off about it with clown face Andrea right now.
Well, OK then... for a minute there I thought you were going to tell me gold was actually going to go down!
You see it the way I do. The Western countries are broke beyond imagination. No escape.
The Western fiat credit empire is collapsing like a fat old Soviet Union.
The Russians scrambled to get gold, food, cars -- anything, because their currency was no good.
Gold is best.
Greenspan got out when he did so he wouldn't be blamed for the nightmare about to unfold.
He's having breakfast and laughing his ass off about it with clown face Andrea right now.
my head is spinning .....
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