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Guest Post: What Could You Do With $20 Billion?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

What Could You Do With $20 Billion?

I woke up this morning wondering what you could do with $20 billion.  It's not something I will ever have to worry about for real, but certain ideas kept popping into my head.  For starters you could call Forbes and have them update their list of richest people in the world with you as #25.  That would be cool.  You could buy any of the 340 companies in the S&P 500 with a market cap less than $20 billion.  If you were feeling altruistic, you could go on E-Bay and buy 7 lunches with Warren Buffett or you could just give $3 to every person in the world.  Maybe you could combine these two things and fulfill the childhood dream to be the person to "buy the world a coke and teach it to sing in perfect harmony".  World harmony might be too much to ask, but you can stop the world from collapsing by lending $20 billion to Greece, or so it seems.

It is hard to define how much money Greece is getting.  Is it the next tranche of IMF money?  Is it the amount of cuts the Greek government agreed to take?  Is it future promises of money from the Troika?  It's hard to tell, but $20 billion seems to be about the amount that is being provided to get us through another 3 months. 

I have argued that Greece should be allowed to default and that governments could deal with the repercussions after the fact.  The default would cause problems, but these wouldn't be insurmountable, and support could then be directed more accurately to where it is needed after a default.  This direct approach to dealing with the consequences has to be better than the current approach of indirectly supporting the Greek lenders.  Governments continue to help Greece avoid default because they are too scared of the consequences.  This just means that only a portion of the bailout money winds up where it is needed the most.  Letting Greece default would reveal the weakest links. It would be painful, would cause stock markets to sell off, but then the governments can deal with the problem institutions, decide which ones are salvageable and which ones need to die.  Ideally, the prudent risk takers would actually be rewarded, maybe even the people would get on board and the governments could institute policies their citizens approve of.

Lehman 2.0 and Contagion

Unfortunately, any mention of a Greek default brings out screams of contagion, Lehman 2.0, economic disaster.  The shouts of panic from this crowd drown out any realistic discussion.  Fighting with this group is like tilting at windmills.  Any progress made at addressing specific concerns about which bank has what exposure, what banks aren't properly reserved, etc., is eventually crushed when the economic doomsayers play the derivative card.  The derivative card beats all else.  Even rational investors seem to get caught up in wildly pessimistic arguments over counterparty exposure and the dangers of CDS.  You can point people at the DTCC data and they will point to a blog that used BIS data incorrectly.  If somehow you can convince someone the derivative issue is overblown, they eventually revert back to generic claims of Lehman 2.0, contagion, and you just don't know what you are talking about.  I lose enough of these types of arguments with my 7 year old that I've learned to take a different tack.

Let's assume the Lehman 2.0 and contagion crowd are correct.  Is it realistic to assume that $3 per person is enough to save the world's entire economic model?  If so, sign me up, I will contribute my $3.  But the GDP of the U.S. $14.5 trillion (it is easy to remember since it is the same as the amount of U.S. debt outstanding).  The GDP of the European Union is $16 trillion.  Add in another $10 trillion for China and Japan and you have GDP of $40 trillion.  The doomsayers are telling us that $20 billion is all that it takes to save a $40 trillion system?  We have a $40 trillion global economy that hinges on getting $20 billion to Greece so they don't default.

Even if it requires a $100 billion to save $40 trillion, that is still a great bang for the buck.  That sounds too good to be true, and it is.
Either the problems that would arise from a Greek default are being massively overstated by the crowd that wants to believe it would drag down the entire financial system, or this new round of money is just the tip of the ice-berg.  If our economic system is so fragile that a Greek default would bring it down, there must be lots of other weak links that will require more money.  Exactly right says the contagion crowd, bailing out Greece stops the contagion from spreading to the other PIIGS.

Stops the contagion from spreading?  With Portuguese 10 year yields at 10.8% and Irish 10 year yields at 11.5% it seems a little late to stop the contagion.  Unfortunately, bailing out Greece doesn't fix the problems in Ireland or Portugal.  Tolstoy wrote "every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way."  Well Ireland and Portugal each have problems that are unique to them, and their problem isn't that they lent too much money to Greece.  If Ireland was a big lender to Greece, then sure, stopping Greece from defaulting would help Ireland.  The problem with the contagion argument is that it is misplaced.  Preventing a Greek default doesn't help the debt of other weak sovereigns, but it does help the banks that lent to Greece.

The real contagion risk is with the banks.  There are banks that lent too much to Greece, some that lent to much to Ireland, and some that took on too much Portuguese debt, and sadly, some that took on too much exposure to all three.  That is the real contagion that people are trying to prevent.  That these banks will take losses on sovereign bonds is the real fear.  Avoiding default on Greece doesn't decrease the likelihood of Ireland or Portugal defaulting, but it reduces the pressure on banks.  The PIIGS really aren't linked to each other, and solving the debt problem of one won't help the others.  It is the banks that are linked.  Banks may be able to withstand one country defaulting (though the Lehman 2.0 crowd would tell you they can't), but the banking system would struggle if they all default.  The problem is at the bank level.  All these bailouts are once again to support the banks and the interconnectivity of the banks. 

If we ever want to get off the bailout bandwagon, we need to make banks raise equity capital and increase the average maturity of their debt outstanding.  Why wait until 2015 to make banks raise additional capital?

Why wait until then to add a capital surcharge to large financial institutions?  We shouldn't wait.  Make the banks raise more equity now and contagion risk drops down and is paid for by bank investors, not the general public.  If banks funded themselves with a higher percentage of long term debt, contagion risk would also decrease.  It is the short term debt rollover needs that expose banks (and countries) to default.  Why not ensure that banks and governments issue a greater proportion of longer term debt?
The primary reason for not forcing immediate equity capital increases and debt maturity extension is that it would reduce the profitability of banks.

Bank profitability should be sacrificed now so that governments can worry less about any individual default, and focus on long term solutions that benefit the entire economic framework, rather than wasting so much time, energy, and money, to avoid even the hint of contagion amongst the banks.

That is a trade off that should be made.

Would forcing banks to raise equity now and to issue more, longer dated bonds hurt the availability of credit?  I am sure we would hear lots of arguments that it would, but since the corporate bond market has been robust I doubt large corporations would notice it.  I concede it's possible that forcing banks to do this could impact credit availability for small and mid size companies, but even in that market, I suspect there are enough regional banks and entrepreneurs, and bond investors to pick up any slack.  I believe that any short term risks of a slowdown in availability of credit, and even the long term effects on bank profitability are more than offset by the ability to shift government resources away from propping up one bad debt situation after another.  It is over 4 years since the first Bear Stearns Credit Hedge Funds blew up and government intervention in the debt and housing markets started in earnest.  With the latest rounds of Greek bailout talks ongoing, and Irish and Portuguese ones sure to come, it is time to take the hard medicine.  Force banks to dilute existing shareholders, reduce earnings by urging longer term borrowing by banks, and then let the chips fall as they may.  There will be winners and losers, and some short term pain, but it is the only way to start clearly building the future.  As a final aside, in spite of all the talk about how Lehman should never have occurred, I find it interesting that few big U.S. banks are viewed as being in trouble - maybe Lehman was a necessary shock to get bank balance sheets to a healthier level.  The jobs lost since Lehman, haven't come back, but that probably has more to do with people willing to work for a few $'s a day elsewhere in the world than the fact that we had the courage to let Lehman fail.

 

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Thu, 06/30/2011 - 08:32 | 1414946 alexwest
alexwest's picture

well, only one sentence..

'WORLD IS GETTING JAPANISED' :)))))

ALX

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 08:58 | 1415036 max2205
max2205's picture

It's called leverage.....

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:16 | 1415108 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

What Could You Do With $20 Billion?

Buy $20 billion in gold and silver.  Store it some secret and safe place.  Default on every obligation that existed.  Rinse and repeat.  When the nth bailout causes the system to implode sit back and watch with amusement.  The Leopard rises from the ashes.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:24 | 1415122 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

It's all about perception, MOPE.   If you believe, really believe. . .  

Leverage, bitchez!

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 08:31 | 1414951 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

If I woke up with $20B I'd quit my job and go on vacation.... and get my own private Greek island

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:49 | 1415220 Sinestar
Sinestar's picture

Why just an island, apparently you can buy the whole country for right around that?

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:00 | 1415280 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

I want to have some money left over for hookers.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:05 | 1415311 Sinestar
Sinestar's picture

I've already said sex tourism could bounce their GDP right back! But good choice!

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 08:36 | 1414952 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

everyone must stick a finger in the dyke.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:23 | 1415136 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Which one of her holes should we insert said finger?   Rubber gloves?

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 12:49 | 1415947 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Left Hand: Finger above...
Right Hand: Finger & Thumb below...

By all means... Glove on below...

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 08:33 | 1414956 billwilson
billwilson's picture

The US spends $20 billion a year air conditioning TENTS for soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan!

 

Got to be a better way to spend (waste) that kind of money.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:26 | 1415129 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Dude, that is $60 million dollars a day for a/c. I know they waste money like crazy but that number is absurd and I don't believe it for a second.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:30 | 1415151 FeralSerf
Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:42 | 1415183 CD
CD's picture

Interesting story, but do read the original source and the full account. The truth is somewhere in between (trite, I know):

http://www.npr.org/2011/06/25/137414737/among-the-costs-of-war-20b-in-air-conditioning

"The Pentagon disputes the calculation made by Anderson about air conditioning costs. Defense Department spokesman Dave Lapan says that in fiscal year 2010, the Pentagon spent approximately $15 billion on energy for all military operations around the world. The Pentagon says when it comes to Afghanistan, it spent $1.5 billion from October 2010 to May 2011 on fuel. That fuel was used for heating and air conditioning systems, but also for aircraft, unmanned aerial systems, combat vehicles, computers and electricity inside military structures."

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:31 | 1415409 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

I read the original too and came to the conclusion that it's probably not possible to get a realistic accounting of the costs.  The Pentagon is very good at distorting their accounting and they're the ones that must have come up with the original numbers (who else can?).

The $20.2 billion number apparently came from Brigadier General Steve Anderson, who served as chief logistician to General David Petraeus who may have his own agenda but should have known something about the costs.  The original quote may be from The Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/8601975/US-sp...

It's very expensive to run large air contitioners on diesel that must be transported long distances over bad roads paved with IEDs in a war zone.  Their tents are poorly insulated too and the ones in charge like to be cool no matter how much it costs.  The only government employee I can remember that turned down the thermostat to save a few KWs was Jimmy Carter.  And we know what happened to him, eh?

 

 

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 11:16 | 1415574 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

The only government employee I can remember that turned down the thermostat to save a few KWs was Jimmy Carter.  And we know what happened to him, eh?

 

Now, that is funny.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 08:39 | 1414972 anony
anony's picture

I would hire and train a team of terminally ill gonzo marines, black ops, foreign legion, special forces, seals, or other assorted multi-talented assassins and go after all the Wall Street types who have put the world into the mess it is in financially solely to enrich themselves.

Starting with surgical insertions into Goldman Sucks' partners, executives and traders. 

 

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 08:51 | 1415012 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

no need, just put a bounty on their asses.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:07 | 1415305 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Guns, ammo, and other misc. tools of destruction are not cheap.  London and New York banks have (profitably) financed operations like this (e.g. WWs I & II,   Napoleonic wars, etc.) in the past.  Do you have a bank in mind that will finance this operation?  Is the banker-in-charge aware of what his final destiny is?

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 08:44 | 1414976 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Sovereign finance is rotten right to it's core.  The contagion folks are correct, but bailing out Greece buys time only, nothing more.  The winds of change are coming, and there is no stopping it.  Let the defaults begin, and then we can make realistic plans to move forward.  I am tired of kicking cans that can be kicked only so far, and run the risk of leaving some future me or other persons responsible for cleaning up the shit.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 08:42 | 1414987 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Derivatives and leverage.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 08:56 | 1415014 snowball777
snowball777's picture

They are not saving "the system", they are "saving" the narrow behinds of the financial sector elites, and not even for very long at that.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:17 | 1415094 Dental Floss Tycoon
Dental Floss Tycoon's picture

Suggested edit:

They are not saving "the system", they are "saving" the fat asses of the financial sector elites, and not even for very long at that.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:35 | 1415429 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I'm not the FASB, I mark the whores to market first.

 

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 08:55 | 1415019 Bob
Bob's picture

It's nice to hear people thinking about the underlying issues and logical solutions.  Unfortunately, the financial industry is concerned only with its own short-term and very personal interests.  Why don't banks recapitalize themselves properly?  Because banks are tools of the sociopathic pirates who run them solely to generate outsized salaries and bonuses for themselves from the "profits."  These titans of the banking world depend upon things staying as they are, for as long as possible. Essential to that, of course, is for their senior bondholder buddies to never take haircuts. 

Government policy makers take counsel on these issues from "experts" in the industry, who also control the media.  Even if Obama were himself capable of understanding more sensible interpretations of things, he would never hear them.  At best, he's a guy who gets out of bed and heads to the office naked every morning, where he is always congratulated on his fine taste in clothes and his great wisdom in preventing the meltdown of the global financial system for yet another day.

It looks to me like the only effective solution will be open season on bankers.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:44 | 1415217 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Well said Bob. the Naked emperor visual is disturbingly spot on and hilarious.

ORI

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:56 | 1415275 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Who is going to be the one that declares open season on bankers?  How long do you think she'll survive?

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:13 | 1415026 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Fantastic post. In regards to banks being impaired on providing small business access to capital... how would that be any different from what we have now? Credit standards + collateral + interest rates are way out of line to what is feasible for a small business today.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:02 | 1415035 skistroni
skistroni's picture

Peter, you are right, but who's listening? 

Protesters that demand jobs, social benefits and early retirement in an economy that cannot be competitive because we just cannot devalue our currency (meanwhile China is inflating it)?

Enterpreneurs that demand liquidity (banks have frozen almost all credit lines) for people to be able to borrow and spend again like before?

Politicians that want to save their ass as number 1 priority (and there is no number 2 priority in fact)?

Or bankers that are afraid, not of the shareholders' losses (I don't think they give a shit in fact), but that if they take the long winding road and bear the restructuring costs, next quarters' result will not look good and they stand to lose their high paying jobs, their houses, their cars, their stock options value and their mistresses ?

Who of the above can listen to a reasonable solution that splits the burden of the mistakes of the last 20 years fairly to everyone?

 

 

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:52 | 1415248 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

This problem has been building for a lot longer than 20 years.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:57 | 1415281 skistroni
skistroni's picture

Correct. 30-50 is much more accurate.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:05 | 1415049 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Why should we give those 20 billion to the Greeks?

To pay for their pensions? Health care?

Aren't they Anarchists?

Since when do Anarchists need pensions and health care?

 

 

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:44 | 1415214 Sinestar
Sinestar's picture

You misunderstand Anarchy

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:36 | 1415438 Tenma13
Tenma13's picture

Agreed. Look beyond the kids with the ski masks throwing bricks. Anarchism is about the need to remove centralised control and authority. While there are various different interpretations, anarchists would be equally opposed to state run communism, as they would a Capitalist system. I think the core idea is that no one has the right to tell someone else what to do. You can suggest and recommend, but never demand and order. There is an altruistic line running through it that hopes, once the current ruling powers/elites are removed and the system as a whole dismantled, folks will be able to develop freely. This is a very, very basic summary. There are on going debates about the need for violent struggle vs peaceful protest (think Gandhi and the British here) to give one example. Really interesting line of think, but best to leave your preconceived notions at the door. 

 

 Chomsky and Orwell are examples of Anarchist thinkers. Orwell went to fight alongside them in the Spanish Civil war. Its interesting to note that the Spanish communists fought the Anarchists.  

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 11:30 | 1415639 Sinestar
Sinestar's picture

But how to get there is the unsolved question.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:07 | 1415055 dcb
dcb's picture

It's not about real world effects, it is about bankers profits. letter I wrote to the financial times today

Sir, As a retail investor I am unable to obtain easy access to the most sure fire investments with a very limited probability of loss and high potential rewards. The strategy is essentially a behavioral economics strategy which relies on the governing elites, central bankers, and the taxpayer. Tests have already proved this strategy to be immensely rewarding. When a large institution/ country gets in trouble, or regulation matters are to be determine and assets have discounted the risk of harsh legislation or failure that is the time to buy.   In the financial crisis bonds of large financial companies were backed by state guarantees. I have been attempting to get my hands on Greek bonds for weeks without success and additionally I have been searching for a way to purchase Irish, and other national debts of the euro zone that the market has discounted deeply. I know the response from policy makers will be to provide endless taxpayer money to back these assets and put other tax payers on the hook. At least with the purchase of these assets I can hedge the risk being imposed by the political elites upon me with future tax increases. The larger and more violent the response of the people in democratic societies the larger the chance the elected officials will continue to pursue the very policies their populace wants terminated. Using this investment theory I am searching for TEPCO bonds.   I can further take this investing theory and use it to predict monetary and regulatory policy. Buying master card and visa at a discount with the assumption rational non punitive swipe fees will be adopted. Instead they were about double what was considered reasonable. I can take basell 2, on capital requirements. I know they won't be very harsh, and know they won't stop systemic risk. So I get the double bonus o owning a large systemic institution trading at a discount that I know the state will always bail out again because resolution mechanisms and ring fencing legislation won't do what it is supposed to.   I used the same principle in investing with QE. Knowing that wall street may loose money if the market continued down I took the bet that Bernanke would adopt QE. Knowing despite what Bernake said it would make oil and commodities skyrocket I put the majority of my money there. After all when he flooded the system with liquidity at the start of the financial crisis before oil went to 147 and food skyrocketed. This of course led to a commodity induced recession and I shorted oil all the way down. So, with QE I shorted the long bond with TBT (double invested long treasury), as well. Having seen the price spike in oil lead to further economic weakness at start of the financial crisis, at the end of QE 1, and now at the end of QE 2, I have made good money on the oil short as it and other commodities dropped and on treasuries. (disclaimer as the s and P approaches 1320 I will become market neutral again with stops so it won't matter what way the market moves).   So, I always take the bet that the elected will put the tax payers on the hook, and when the fed makes policy choices it will be bad for every day people and good for the banks and traders. THIS IS THE HIGHEST RETURN STRATEGY AVAILABLE KNOW. It does mean you have to have a of of cash available to buy the beaten down assets, but there is little downside with state backing and high potential upside.   PS: when the phrase contagion is mentioned, that is the buy signal. I also know the elected bodies and regulatory agencies are captured by the banking industry and it is clear the unstated policy is to make sure the bankers are protected from their poor investment decisions. This is the no brainer investment strategy of our time.
Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:42 | 1415485 Tenma13
Tenma13's picture

Really interesting post. I was thinking the other day, what idiot is willing to buy Greek bonds as it obvious they can't continue with these rates of debts. Alas, once again I'm the idiot. If you've got the ECB and the IMF backing these bonds you can't loose, that is until the whole thing crashes and burns.... No doubt at that point you'll have hopefully convert your profits to gold, or something more meaningful. 

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:15 | 1415104 SilverDosed
SilverDosed's picture

BP was supposed to pay the gulf coast 20 Billion, so far we've gotten 3 billion and don't expect more. People are REALLY pissed off at that "smart-ass New York Jew" Fineburg. This song has become quite popular again down here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nGw_vAnqPI

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:20 | 1415120 Nihilarian
Nihilarian's picture

Have sex with 2 chicks at the same time. Next question.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 12:09 | 1415776 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I realize you don't need $20 billion to have sex with two chicks at the same time, but I'm pretty sure I could get two really hot ones to double up on me if I had that kinda money.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:25 | 1415127 Arius
Arius's picture

tupperware as of the hedge fund "genius" manager is making 20billion every year or so ... all he does is to donate it to the food bank in New Jersey ... makes one think why does he have to steal it in the first place ???

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:24 | 1415143 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

$20 Billion?

...mmmmm...that's a tad more then Goldman Sachs handed out in Bonuses last year. Looks like it's enough to feed the Euro bankers for a months or two.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:32 | 1415172 Kayman
Kayman's picture

The $20 billion is liquidity at the margins.  Banking "assets" and their parallel liabilities are, at best, a mirage.

Until the write-downs begin, we will be in this desperate scramble of trying to put out a forest fire with a garden hose.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:37 | 1415175 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

The Lehman comparison is mis-understood. No other bank failed because of Lehman, there was no contagion with Lehman.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:46 | 1415203 Sinestar
Sinestar's picture

Lehman was intentionally short-circuited according to insider reports I read.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:41 | 1415190 Sinestar
Sinestar's picture

Definitely a fox in the henhouse here somewhere. Someone important doesn't want to lose their position in Greek bonds. They probably had some irrational respect for Greek culture and put all their eggs in one basket (sorry for all the farm references). €20 billion certainly can't save the world, but it could wipe out a couple Greedy SOB's who were stupid enough to loan Greece more money than they could possibly pay back in a lifetime.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:49 | 1415234 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

"The real contagion risk is with the banks. "

It's not only the banks.  The banks have a monetary contagion risk, i.e. default eats into their meagre capital to the point of some of the banks defaulting on their obligations. The contagion risk that is even more important is the perception one.  If the smaller and realistically bankrupt nations are allowed to default, then other countries will get the idea that default is a real possibility, even an inevitability.  That's when the real contagion begins.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:57 | 1415259 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

I would provide air conditioning for all of our troops in Afghanistan!

http://www.dailypaul.com/169066/us-spends-20-billion-annually-on-air-ac-...

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:11 | 1415318 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Funny how "the other side" gets by with a ceiling fan or two, but who am I to demand that troops fight dehydrated to the point of dementia while being stop-lossed and about to go without pay (thanks, pugs!).

But $20B?! Are they shipping artisan ice chunks from Antarctica or something? That seems ridiculous even in terms of the biz as usual MIC bloat.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:17 | 1415337 Bob
Bob's picture

Totally insane.  And could be cut by 91% simply by trying, as the original article goes on to say.

But that's the MIC.  Are you expecting accountability?  Do we know what happened to the $1T+ that Rummy lost pre-911?  Or the subsequent $600B?  Etc.

But questioning such things makes you a pansy-assed lib with "anti-American" goals, don't you think?

Have some patriotism, man!  We've got entitlements and taxes to cut.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:33 | 1415418 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Jingo; bingo.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:42 | 1415467 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Twice as much -- Rummy admitted (on 9/10/01) to $2.3 trillion missing.  The accounting paperwork was conveniently lost in the 9/11 attacks.

http://www.oilempire.us/trillions.html

And a trillion was worth at least twice as much as then as it is today.  A trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon we'll be talking about real (funny) money.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:11 | 1415316 P-K4
P-K4's picture

$20B

- 2 months of make up and hair coiffures for Nancy Pelosi

- What Charlie Sheen spent on drugs, alcohol & hookers in one season

- How much Moochelle spent planning and raising a garden of vegetables

- 3 months of pension payments for 6 retired California politicians

- One M1 Abrams tanks with cupholders and no air conditioning

- 3 presidential teleprompters with artificial intelligence

- one day of travel expenses for CIA

- 8 miscroseconds at Ben's Dollar Press

- Timmay's tax deductions for 2009

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:12 | 1415326 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Amount of dollars "lost" in Iraq during the Bush administration.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:43 | 1415488 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Chickenfeed & rounding errors -- just 0.5% (inflation adjusted) of what Rummy admitted the DOD couldn't find in 2001.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 12:49 | 1415928 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

+5... Truth hurts...

BTW: Timmay doesn't know because Timmay hasn't filed his 2009 taxes yet... TurboTax malfunction...

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:40 | 1415479 MadeOfQuarks
MadeOfQuarks's picture

I think the reason the bailouts are happening is not only to save the banks, but also to keep alive the easy money doctrine. If Greece is allowed to default bond purchasers will want yields to actually reflect the risks, while today bond purchasers count on socialization of risks.

If bond yields rise to meet risk, then governements in Europe won't be able to borrow as much money, and won't be able to win elections by promising stuff for borrowed money.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 11:54 | 1415720 benbushiii
benbushiii's picture

Instead of having to go to the markets to raise capital through equity offerings / bond offerings, why not do away with all of the bonuses and out-sized salaries paid at the financial institutions.  Regulate the industry so the incentive is to provide needed capital for growing productive businesses instead of creating paper profits at the expense of the masses?

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 12:42 | 1415913 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"What Could You Do With $20 Billion?"

Create $250 Billion in fractional reserve loans out of thin air (i.e. counterfeiting) with an 8% RRR...

And make the public pay me back with real hard earned income plus interest... This is the reason JPM is the biggest fucking building in Manhattan...

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 12:55 | 1415962 vato poco
vato poco's picture

what to do with 20 extra-large? good question; lotsa good answers so far. but let's think outside the box. first, of course, would be the hookers & blow & human sacrifices bacchanalia & all that. but that's only stay fresh and new for...what....15 years or so, right? then you'd go through the 'humiliate strangers for money' phase: "i'll give you $50,000 to smear dogshit on yourself and then go nut-punch that realtor over there." that's another 5 years.

now it's time to get serious. first, at some point roughly every year or so, you have to kill or better yet blackmail any random banker/lawyer/bureaucrat/politician. be smart about it: plan it, learn about hair & fiber & DNA evidence so as not to leave any, don't take your cellphone with you, don't hire the job out to a chatty tweaker who'll rat you out in a second, don't drive to the scene in a car equipped with any GPS systems, wear a hoody or a decent disguise and learn to alter your walk/stride, which LE software now picks up on very well, know where any & all surveillance cameras are, have at leat 3 escape routes planned, all that. I.E., *don't get caught*. secondly, every 2 or 3 days or so, pick someone you've been watching for awhile who looks like a good person stuck in a crapola job: the cheerful bank teller; the hard-working kid at the subway shop; the obviously exhausted single mom who rings you up at the walmart, and smiles while doing so. offer them the following deal: you'll give them $1mm - after taxes. not enough to retire forever, but enough to start/get/make a *much* better life for themselves & their families. go to tech school, start a business, whatever.

but there's 2 strings attached: 1) they have to do a 'pay it forward' kind of thing for 10 people over the next 10 years. help a flat-broke neighbor get a new (used) car after hers was totalled by some drunken idiot. pay off the 20 grand in credit-card debt the 45-year-old guy who delivers their paper every morning is being crushed under. like that. 2) impress upon the people you've helped that they're all under similar obligations. THEY have to help out 10 worthy random strangers, and - while it's unlikely someone would commit to whacking a banker for a used car or 20 grand -  they have to do what they can to bring the whole rotten system down: buy PM's. teach kids/friends/neighbors about the corrupt fed/government crime syndicate. homeschool their kids. buy lots of handguns. get on a jury, and start a jury-nullification movement: set free some poor schnook who's being prosecuted for reefer or pain pills or "filming a cop on duty". refuse to speak to any cop or lawyer or banker ever again, even in social situations. *shun* them. vote against every single incumbent in every election, even though that'll be mostly a symbolic gesture. and all the folks THEY help have to commit to do likewise.

it'll take awhile, but given enough time and enough 'converts'......well, time and compound interest are the most powerful forces in the universe.

once upon a time, slavery was universal. it was the way things WERE, had always BEEN, and would always BE. one guy - one single guy - was largely responsible for starting the ball rolling on ending it: william wilberforce. everybody laughed, but he kept plugging away - and HE didn't have $20 billion to help things along. he first started agitating about it in 1784, to everyone's general amusement. but within 100 years, slavery was a dead institution worldwide. (unless you count our peace-loving islamic friends, who are still at it.)

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 13:03 | 1416003 vato poco
vato poco's picture

OR, you could just cut a $20 billion check payable to "Greece", have them endorse it, and hand it back to the loansharks as this month's payment on the vig.

that'd mean a lot, too.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 13:55 | 1416205 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

The correct way to deal with Wall St. and bankers is to remain cool, calm, collected and then get a grip...

http://dmaf2010.aminus3.com/image/2010-09-01.html

 

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 14:06 | 1416239 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I would buy a fleet of Moller Skycars and open up a rental agency based on these vehicles in every State.

That should generate a pretty good return and kick start something other than our crumbling highways.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 14:23 | 1416322 gwiss
gwiss's picture

Hire Xe to take over Haiti and turn it into the next Hong Kong.  Every centrally controlled country needs a nearby free market zone for the nomenklatura to invest in and get goods from.  First in makes the most money....

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