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Guest Post: Where Is The Recovery? I Cannot Seem To Find It

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Tony Pallotta of Macro Story

Where Is The Recovery?  I Cannot Seem To Find It

"The only thing worse than being blind is having sight but no vision."
- Helen Keller

Possibly the only thing worse than having a serious problem on your hands is when you clearly do not understand the problem.  You ignore the data and find an easy scapegoat for why the problem is temporary and will pass.  The slowdown in the US economy is not transitory as the Fed chairman states.  Hopes for 3-4% GDP growth in the second half of 2011 are simply that, hope.

The earthquake in the third largest economy occurred two months before US economic data began slowing sharply. It is easy to say that must be the cause.  It is far harder to blame failed policies for that involves being honest with oneself.  Accepting failure is everyone's Achilles' heel.  Something few can overcome.

What is most disturbing about the failed policies of the Federal Reserve and Federal Government are the millions of Americans suffering when they do not have to.  With one in seven Americans on food stamps, one in five unemployed or under employed, 28% of mortgages underwater, do leaders truly think we are this naive and that recovery is underway?

In a recent survey 48% of Americans feel we are already in a depression, forget recession.  Regardless of what the NBER says or measures of real GDP, something easily manipulated through the deflator, it feels and therefore it is a depression. Food prices are rising.  It costs more to fill up our gas tank. Walmart and countless other low cost stores bare witness to the modern day bread line.

If the US government reduced spending by 40% today, right this second we still could not put a dent in a $12 trillion national debt, closer to $70 trillion when factoring in unfunded liabilities.  The government nearly shut down in May as leaders tried to agree on 1% in budget cuts later found to be a pure accounting scheme.  All is not well in the US economy and a recovery is not and has not begun. Trillions have been spent since 2008 and we have nothing to show for it.

Ask a child wearing a red shirt what color their shirt is.  They will shout red. Ask that same question to an adult and they will hesitate, afraid to answer the most obvious question out of fear they are being set up.  As adults we seem to lose the ability to see the obvious. We live in constant fear of being wrong, being judged by others for our inadequacies.  Rather than focus on the task at hand we focus on the failure. The safety of going along with the group outweighs the truth we see with our own eyes.

Ask a fund manager with $5 billion in assets under management (AUM) if the economy is recovering and they will say yes.  They will say this soft patch is transitory, it is a function of Japan and the revolution in MENA (Middle East and Northern Africa).  They will tell you Greece is contained.  They will tell you housing is bottoming.  They will tell you stocks are cheap.

Do they believe that?  Aside from group think I certainly hope not but if the group says that red shirt you are wearing is in fact blue well dammit that shirt is blue. No one believes they are a lemming, that they are part of the herd.  The word sheeple does not include them.  Then why does history always show the majority to be wrong?

As the market rolls over investors are beginning to question the color of that shirt. Perhaps it is red after all.  The Federal Reserve has a horrible record at economic forecasting, absolutely horrid yet with each new forecast we are expected to believe "this time it is different."  With each passing day more data tells us they are wrong yet again.  As investors we must be diligent in our work, diligent in understanding the issues.  We must think for ourselves, beyond the noise, beyond the pressure to conform. Now is the time to have courage in our convictions.

When I listen to Bernanke speak what scares me most is not his forecasts of 3-4% economic growth but his complete lack of comprehension of the problems.  His apparent belief that this soft patch will pass.  That QE was successful.  That with more time structural changes in our economy will fix themselves. That the answer to debt is more debt.
In the words of Helen Keller his sight makes him a very dangerous man.

Bonds forecast, equities confirm.

Bonds have spoken. Equities are finally listening.

 

 

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Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:05 | 1364959 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

The Average joe fund manager is indeed a lemming. The problem is when they all actually figure out that they are indeed wrong. Which they will eventually. Hopefully then all the intelligent investors are far out of the way, at least the ones who read Zero hedge and other informative blogs will be prepared.

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:13 | 1364985 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

Worse than lemmings, fund managers want to be able to point to everyone else and say to their investors "see, we all flubbed up, stick with me".  Pathetic.  A fearsome lack of confident research analysis investment decisions and a plethora of HFT technical dinky movements done in massive quantity.  That's not investing, it is nano second arbitrage.  It works until it doesn't, but it isn't investing.  No commitment to company, product, service or future.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:42 | 1365074 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

Fund managers have a problem - they keep you invested and make money or tell the truth and go broke. That simple. Want to eep the BMW, beach house and mistress? Keep the sheeple invested. Want to loose it all? Tell the truth.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:40 | 1365080 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

Fund managers have a problem - they keep you invested and make money or tell the truth and go broke. That simple. Want to eep the BMW, beach house and mistress? Keep the sheeple invested. Want to loose it all? Tell the truth.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:59 | 1365128 Ergo
Ergo's picture

New definition of recovery = slowing down the rate of decent. 

In short, necessities cost much more, houses are worth a bit less, and we work longer hours to make less money.  But the world didn't end yet, so things must be getting better...  

I'm not surprised that governments lie.  I'm not surprised by the enormous transfer of wealth to an elite few.  But I'm sad that our people so readily accept lies as truth.  I suppose those who don't love truth, can't see it.  And unfortunately, we will all suffer for their lack of foresight. 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:15 | 1365164 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

When a 747 crash lands the rate of descent is also slowed, sometimes more violently than others. And even the Titanics rate of descent slowed. It doesnt surprise me that govts and banks lie, what gets me is the people always believe the lies.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:43 | 1365222 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

Or how about recomposing the economy as it decomposes? http://bit.ly/mRwsi9

 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 21:00 | 1366430 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

that was a great post ergo

...Victory Gin

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:30 | 1365025 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Fed policy isn't failing.  It's shareholder banks are plundering trillions of dollars from taxpayers, and perpetrating the greatest wealth transfer... err theft, in history.

 

Thinking that the private Federal Reserve is in the business of creating jobs, helping the economy, or doing anything other than enrich it's members is naive at best.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:44 | 1365029 BS_Merchant
BS_Merchant's picture

What does the "IG Peaks" from the graph mean?

 

Thanks

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:15 | 1365162 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Investment Grade [bonds] peak.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:09 | 1364961 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Lotta sheeple about to go up in flaming BBQ.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:17 | 1364995 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Its unfortunate, but true.

Oh well. Serves sheeple right for not saving for a rainy day. Investing in stocks is not saving for a rainy day.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:12 | 1364964 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

BREAKING:

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=188027

Leon Panetta: Is He A Sneak Communist?

Karl Denniger and his teatard derp squad have exposed the head of the CIA as a secret communist Jew!

I knew it!  This country is finished!  We got communist Jews running the CIA and a Marxist Muslims as POTUS.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:10 | 1364971 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And theres a point in your post somewhere?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:10 | 1364973 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Of course he is. Hardly news. 

BTW thanks for the totaly off-topic troll post.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:23 | 1365014 anony
anony's picture

Is there any way in the fucking world you can stop using the term "Troll"? 

I mean for an articulate bunch, the constant use of one word that has lost ALL of its impact from pure overuse by everyone with whom they disagree is nauseating.

Find a new one.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:31 | 1365021 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OK heres a new one, asshole. BTW I didnt 'disagree', I said theres no point to the off topic post.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:36 | 1365054 aheady
aheady's picture

Troll.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:05 | 1365142 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Huh, back when I was a kid that was what a 'dork' was.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:16 | 1365180 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Fuck y'all! Dork, Troll, none of those carry the insulting weight of the word POLITICIAN!

From now on no one is "trolling" they are politizing. They are no longer "trolls", they are politicians.

However BANKER can be used as an effective insult.

Why the fuck would an Economic site use fantasy slang, other than stock market and economist, as insults?

 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:38 | 1365247 aheady
aheady's picture

All synonymous with douche.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:49 | 1365279 Dburn
Dburn's picture

+1 I'm in favor of Douche, Douchebag, Douchebaggery and other creative derivatives with the root being Douche, It acts as a noun, adjective or verb depending on usage.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:49 | 1365281 malikai
malikai's picture

We just call them cunts here in Britain.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 05:49 | 1367151 Tenma13
Tenma13's picture

rofl! Well said sir!

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:26 | 1365007 falak pema
falak pema's picture

One should run east jerusalem, the other west J; I'd vote for that immediately. If you did Jerusalem would become a fun place. Lots of free booze for tourists like you.

So when do we shoe them in there? Get Denniger to raise congressional support Pronto!

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:29 | 1365019 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

I live in the U.S.  I'm more concerned about this country.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:41 | 1365454 falak pema
falak pema's picture

You sir, don't know where your alcohol gets paid...it's in Jerusalem with Petrodollars...so move your butt pronto if you want to drink rye scotch with your baked potatoes from IDAAAHO!

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:36 | 1365237 Enceladus
Enceladus's picture

I always had a thought it would be interesting to have the U.N. move to Jerusalem, they could run it like the Papacy in Vatican City. They could have their own stamps, tax, mint, laws etc. They could enforce 'peace' in the city and best of all leave NYC.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:07 | 1364966 Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

 

You cannot look into the fishbowl when you are in the fishbowl.  They have as much rational perspective as congress. 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:26 | 1365398 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

If you are a fish and leave the fishbowl, you are likely to die.  The smart fishes figure out that they are in a fishbowl and learn to deal with it.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:43 | 1365462 falak pema
falak pema's picture

even when the fish bowl water is fukushimad? That be very dumb logikkk.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:23 | 1365564 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

well if the water is from fukushima then you're fugu'd

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:34 | 1365590 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I'm immune to Fuku fukk, as not a fish from a consumerised fish bowl, but a flying fish from Ithica where we learnt to avoid sirens who said 'sayonara' to US soldiers. Thus enticing them back...to taste their own Hiroshima medicine. Oh the horrors of reverse globalisation.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:15 | 1364975 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

go long lamb kabobs!

sheeple "freed" of the wealth effect in time for independence day 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:16 | 1364982 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Buy the dip. It's going to make you rich. Ha Ha !

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:13 | 1364983 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Since we are going off-topic:

 

http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/13/news/economy/summers_stimulus/index.htm

 

Hey Larry - go fuck yourself!

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:17 | 1364986 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Fatfuk strikes again!

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:14 | 1364987 Salah
Salah's picture

Listen-up bitchez

Get to know this rabbit (term):  "Financial Repression"

Ref starter: Carmen M. Reinhart,  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_repression


Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:33 | 1365588 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

nice link, thanks

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:15 | 1364988 Rastadamus
Rastadamus's picture

Babylon and this chart is falling.....

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:20 | 1365189 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

I wonder how many are long lampstands and oil...

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:15 | 1364989 hannah
hannah's picture

jesus christ....get off this sh&t that the 'FED DOES FORECASTING'....the fed puts out PR for the sheeple. they arent stupid. they know exactly the effects of QE etc are before they do them....I KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN...IT DOESNT TAKE A PHD TO KNOW THAT PRINTING MOENY OUT OF THIN AIR (OR ADDING ELECTRONS TO A COMPUTER SCREEN) WILL RESULT IN CHAOS...sometimes i think these sites are apologist for the fed...?

...and go ahead and delete this post like the half dozen others you have edited....

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:24 | 1365006 anony
anony's picture

You've been edited???

Don't say I don't believe you, but when?  Where?  How?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:59 | 1365309 hannah
hannah's picture

they are 'protecting their own'....LOL...just make a negative comment about one of their sister blogs and they will pull the comment. i was taking screen grabs of my comments to make sure they posted but then the next day the comments are gone AND their if no refernce in search......tooooo funny. even this media outlet pulls the same BS as the major media outlets...wait....now who owns this website....?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:22 | 1365011 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hannah Ive been saying the same for years here on Zerohedge, printing money out of thin air can not result in wealth it ends in chaos.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:37 | 1365599 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Hannah only listens to the great dictator, who can bounce a globe on his extended foot or finger. So you better put on your Charlie mustache!

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:22 | 1364991 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The Federal Reserve has a horrible record at economic forecasting, absolutely horrid yet with each new forecast we are expected to believe "this time it is different."


  Bernanke Epic Failures of Advice and Forecasts (total, epic fail)
Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:25 | 1365001 oogs66
oogs66's picture

+1  this was great, is there an updated one where he goes through his economic quarterly forecasts for the past 2 years followed with what actually occurred?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:26 | 1365013 doggings
doggings's picture

looks like Geithner's hedging his bets at least this time, with an unofficial and an official line, take your pick. 

http://red-pill.org/government-admit-another-crisis-coming/

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:23 | 1365017 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Thanks TruthinSunshine.... In the first blurb he sounds like an economist from NAR... Also catch the correction - someone told him not to use any form of the word "HOPE"

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:22 | 1364998 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:28 | 1365420 andybev01
andybev01's picture

Another Monday, another junkie trolling the board.

xkcd has some of the best humor, ever. I'm putting that one on a t-shirt.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:22 | 1364999 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

I say we take all government spending off the books like the pentagon does and claim national security when asked about it.

I'm tired of hearing people bitch about our debt.  Who gives a fuck.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:18 | 1365000 oogs66
oogs66's picture

what scares me even more when Bernanke speaks is that he believes in his own projections in spite of having been wrong time and time again

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:19 | 1365002 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

+ one hundred percent

 

 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:41 | 1365620 falak pema
falak pema's picture

You are the guy out of "Arsenic and old lace" ...you used to think you were Teddy Roosevelt and you kept running up a down a stair case! I remember you well. Why have you ended up as a drunkard? Its time to send you back to your your "special home". Off you go!

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:26 | 1365010 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

This feels like 2007, only the bubble is UST and it's not going to slowly deflate. It's going to pop. The 10yr will be paying 6% by Dec. and the 'safe haven' sheeple will lose big, just like they lost on 90's dot coms and 00's housing.

Trade of the decade? Long PST.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:24 | 1365018 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Long AR15, long ammo. Trade of the millenium.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:26 | 1365024 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

I'll stick with my 50 BMG for long and my ARs for short.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:33 | 1365033 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

My Panther .308 AR platform does nicely 'long', I mean anything much past 1,000 yards is rolling the dice on a wind gust shift anyway. Long things youll need, trade of the millenia.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:50 | 1365096 sabra1
sabra1's picture

guess i'll have to use my sons airsoft pistol! i'll just shoot 'em in the eyes to blind them! then their gold is mine, all mine!

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:23 | 1365012 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Then why does history always show the majority to be wrong?

This is an assumption that deserves some additional consideration. Is the majority really wrong or are they just passive? Is the majority mislead by so called leaders who are fearful frauds and con-men, simply seeking to maintan their power and ego?

IMO the majority is wrong on Wall Street because the few with the power to absolutely move markets and news benefit most when defrauding the masses.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:28 | 1365020 pelican
pelican's picture

To quote Jim Morrison, I am going to get my kicks before the entire shit house goes up in flames.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:32 | 1365031 Sizzurp
Sizzurp's picture

Time for Bernanke to pick his poison.  Shall it be catastrophic depression now or hyperinflation later....hmmm , I bet i know where he comes down.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:34 | 1365038 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Unfortunately, the 'long run' is here. It makes no difference what he chooses, the outcome is the same.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:33 | 1365059 Sizzurp
Sizzurp's picture

I think he could nurse it along for another year or two with funny money.  it would take all their manipulation skills and lots of lying, but it could be done

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:36 | 1365049 pelican
pelican's picture

It seems they are trying to crash the plane slowly.

I am about to cash my 401k out and eat the taxes on it.

I don't trust the banks, the investment community nor the government.

 

 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:27 | 1365212 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

It seems they are trying to crash the plane slowly.

LOL!  Had not heard that before...

I've been wrestling with the same issue on the 401k (I have 2 left).  Trying to discern a future outcome in which leaving it where it sits is logical.  I can't see past 2 years without complete collapse, and who knows what options will be around at that point.  But it seems that they'll be at more attractive prices than the tax loss.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:05 | 1365330 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

We cashed out. They say we could not, so we quit that employer and forced a cash out.

It forms the core of our Silver holdings. Which we are getting ready to add more of.

The market and economy can run for longer than the B-man can babble nonsense to confuse us, his employers and Congress his foremen long enough to retain his job.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:38 | 1365064 pelican
pelican's picture

It seems they are trying to crash the plane slowly.

I am about to cash my 401k out and eat the taxes on it.

I don't trust the banks, the investment community nor the government.

 

 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:01 | 1365132 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I believe at this point theyre just trying to live today by whatever means it takes to live to try to keep it afloat 1 more day. I know ZH people dont pay too much attention to mid east news and wars and all that but its about to take a turn to seriously worse.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:32 | 1365217 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

My intuition agrees with you, SD.  But I have nothing more.  What knows you that you can share?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:33 | 1365229 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Some are predicting false-flag terror attacks for the USA in the immediate near-term future. Several American cities being instantaneously reduced to heat and light in a series of thermonuclear detonations would not be out of the question.

How does a July 4th nuclear armageddon sound to you?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:07 | 1365326 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

souns like paranoia...

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:16 | 1365364 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Sounds like somebody's not paying attention.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:38 | 1365604 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Who's the string pullers?  Russkis?  China? or a super-covert inside job?

 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:43 | 1365628 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Pigmies from the congo...the new threat to the Oligarchy...but they don't know it yet!

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:22 | 1365181 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

He already picked his poison. Hint: it rhymes with hint.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:32 | 1365050 mikemcsaudi
mikemcsaudi's picture

This is ALL an exercise in understanding human character.  Let me ask you a question.  Let's pretend that you make your entire living selling widgets.  All of a sudden widgets have been found to be faulty.  What do you do?  Take out an ad in the newspaper and tell everyone that they are faulty and that you wouldn't buy them yourself?  Of course not!   You do your best to try to fix the widget problem and HOPE that you don't lose sales over the course of addressing the issue.  But you better believe that you would talk up the benefits of owning widgets and how they are the best thing since Dancing with the Stars!

Don't ask people who have skin in the game for their opinion.  It will always reflect a) what they are told to say  b) what they WANT you to believe/hear .

Yes, some people are just plain lazy or pure idiots.  However, the vast majority are following their survival instincts. 

This is why I love zerohedge!  Yes, you do get some coming in saying the company line, but the majority are seeing it for what it really is ...

 

 

 

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 02:23 | 1367015 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"An Enemy of the People" by Henrik Ibsen

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:33 | 1365056 MrButtoMcFarty
MrButtoMcFarty's picture

Can someone please color code key that chart for this dummy??

WTF is "IG"?

Blue line = ??

Brown line = ??

Green line = ??

Am I the only moron who can't make heads or tails of this??

 

 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:18 | 1365173 MacroStory
MacroStory's picture

IG - Investment Grade 

Blue lines - bollinger bands

Other lines are moving averages

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:44 | 1365466 MrButtoMcFarty
MrButtoMcFarty's picture

Thank you very much!

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:33 | 1365058 fastishplastic
fastishplastic's picture

i'll give you a quote, "they're trying to goad me, trying to own me. But this isn't a gunfight. It's not about pride or ego. It's only about money. I can leave now, even with Grama and KGB... and halfway to paying Petrovsky back. That's the safe play. I told Worm you can't lose what you don't put in the middle. But you can't win much either." this article is the sucker at the table. anyone who believes the market is connected to economics -the economic (non)recovery reality-is the lemming, sheeple (sheepson??), herd, majority. and for those from the herd let me be clear - of course this doesn't mean that r2k is a good play right now.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:10 | 1365066 fastishplastic
fastishplastic's picture

i'll give you a quote, "they're trying to goad me, trying to own me. But this isn't a gunfight. It's not about pride or ego. It's only about money. I can leave now, even with Grama and KGB... and halfway to paying Petrovsky back. That's the safe play. I told Worm you can't lose what you don't put in the middle. But you can't win much either." this article is the sucker at the table. anyone who believes the market is connected to economics -the economic (non)recovery reality-is the lemming, sheeple (sheepson??), herd, majority. and for those from the herd let me be clear - of course this doesn't mean that r2k is a good play right now.

evaluating participation in the bond/stock market based on an analysis into the efficient allocation of capital is misguided at best and more likely textbook DSM-IV-TR. if you're trying to make money allocating capital go gather under a tree with a bunch of friends , invite as many entrepreneurs as you can find (before they all get run out by the bernak) listen to their pitch, ask them questions, and start trading bids and offers. until then play this thing like texas hold em, and do some research about the way things are run in texas, at least that'll inform you more than any economic indicators on the nature of markets as they are today.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:37 | 1365071 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

The world is split into 2 types of people - those who saw this coming, and those who would believe anyone who will tell them differently.

What this crisis has taught me is that 98% of people who 'invest' - or who like to talk to us in bars about their 'investments' - do so without a clue about either macro-economics or even the slightest amount of reason.

They all 'take the advice' of someone else - thinking that they have some sort of comeback if it all goes wrong. How wrong they are about that too!

 

The people will stomach austerity, they will stomach 'invisible robbery' by the banks. they will stomach Government failure to prevent recessions - but what they won't take is seeing their pensions and 'investments' wiped out.

 

When the next crisis comes - they will lose everything, and when people lose everything - they lose it - and America's money problems will pale into insignificance.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 21:01 | 1366432 longorshort
longorshort's picture

What firm are you?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:44 | 1365082 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Very scary times. This market is like  cancer, slowly dying, with a blip of hope from time to time. But this form of cancer is fatal. Gonna take time. Stay clear if you do not short.

Not time for miners, gold yet. Soon, but not yet.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:55 | 1365108 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Where Is The Recovery?  I Cannot Seem To Find It

 

Check the Fed Funded bouns pool at the leading Wall Street banks.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:06 | 1365135 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I dont even get that part, so they have pools of imaginary worthless dollars. And?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 12:52 | 1365109 Mallenet
Mallenet's picture

Wow - wish I was drinking/smoking what others here are on!

Recovery evidence: yes or no?  Not complicated.

My answer: No - as in no way, never, never will be and life as we know it is down the toilet!  OK - on subject - jeez!

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:02 | 1365127 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

But, what does Krugman say - he's a Nobel prize winner don't ya know. If he says we're in recovery then we are in recovery.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:04 | 1365138 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

The only thing worse than being blind is imagining that you can see...

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:18 | 1365175 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The Villages...americans friendliest home town....ah sad that mom and pops will soon get their 401K's and pensions seized by the Fed....well better get busy remodeling that basement for a place for em to stay in their retirement.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:07 | 1365337 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

My folks sold thier place there before a hurricane wiped it away.

 

Got out while the getting was good some months....

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:25 | 1365202 MacGruber
MacGruber's picture

This is gonna be a replay of 2009 when they declared after the election was over that in fact the country was in recession for over a year. Only this time they will just dismiss the word "recovery"; "you must have misunderstood, what we meant by 'recovery' was that we were still deep in the bowels of a continuing depression." Orwell would be proud.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:31 | 1365215 sbenard
sbenard's picture

I'm convinced that fund managers, like most of Wall Street, are so drunk on bailouts, stimulus, and Fed money-printing that they are oblivious to risk. As long as the free money flows and they get theirs, they don't care about what is happening on Main Street. It's monetary mayhem, and its only going to get worse!

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:46 | 1365271 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

Currency Basis:     Property vs. Talent

So, they don’t have a currency / solvency problem because the gov owns land … which agency “privatizes” to its friends for pennies on the dollar … and the proposed solution is to accelerate the process …

The taxpayer pays $1 million to put someone else’s kid through school. Likely the child of an ignorant single parent, from the same system, entering as a critical thinker, asking why, and is “trained” not to think, to comply (“I don’t know why; it’s just how I was told to do it” positive feedback), and graduates without the ability to read, write or add 2 and 2, and the solution is to give this “family” access to all kinds of make-work social programs, all the while expecting the promises of pensions and healthcare upon retirement, because a few, at the top of the ponzi lottery economy, got theirs. That’s a simple stupid problem.

Assumptions:   property is your most important asset; accelerating property taxes by massively inflating RE prices to support this “school” system will lead to something other than bankruptcy of the pension and healthcare systems, by pushing the contributor to receiver ratio over the cliff.

They are not selling cars; they are selling oil. They are not selling property; they are selling taxes. They are not selling oil or taxes; they are selling control. All of Vermont is a hobby farm with trash trees, which qualifies it for the ag and conservation subsidies.

Based on the accounting income from this utterly irrational property scheme, the ultimate “owners” are playing the currency game. Centrally planned, variable income, hidden by accounting complexity skewing the hub, is the worst of all worlds, and yes, the talented kids do care. It doesn’t matter from an absolute valuation perspective that there are few talented kids; that just makes each worth more, which is why the algorithm connecting them, to deliver current where it is most needed effectively, is so important.

For a long time, girls asked why and were told to go play with their dolls. Naturally, they got tired of playing with their dolls (can you imagine saying that to the daughter of a woman crossing the country in a covered wagon?). Now, unfortunately, both the boys and the girls don’t ask why, like why are people competing with stupid machines to do stupid make-work, faster, liquidating their own culture in the process, through a dead financial short.

Every community needs to develop a diversified talent pool as quickly as possible. Build your hub accordingly. Only a machine associates a job with identity for the purpose of directing current. The property derived is dumber yet, and the credit derived from that property is dumbest of all.

Currency is a derivative, with an event horizon. Treat it as such. Do not allow it to elude. A community currency should elucidate, on the AC side of the mirror, with a resistor resisting the resistance. Let them steal the present, but never, ever, show them the first or second integral, until you have the next set ready to go on the shelf.

Let me be sure I understand the argument. A country cannot go bankrupt because its citizens must pay taxes. The kids are stupid because they do not pay taxes, and the taxpayer’s government will threaten my job if I don’t comply with this line of “thinking.” I would suggest that an economy is a function of trust and the kids have every reason to view the taxpayer as the enemy. Geithner may or may not be a moron, but he is specifically paid by the taxpayer to be stupid.

The intelligent kids do constructive when others are not watching, do de-constructive when others are watching, and say nothing. Others follow the de-constructive example and talk their heads off, proving to the increasingly bipolar world that they are idiots. Naturally, the nexus algorithm is designed to identify the intelligent kids by elimination, and the middle class taxpayer has been only too happy to oblige.

My problem is that I was born in Ozzie-and-Harrietville, with the Protestant work ethic ingrained, which is a habit, like smoking, but I have never been out-worked despite every chain at the disposal of the nexus attached. The kids don’t have that problem.

So, when do you suppose they are going to try and unveil the strong dollar, to take advantage of the turning tide, and what do you suppose they will see when they do?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:01 | 1365321 andybev01
andybev01's picture

"They are not selling cars; they are selling oil. They are not selling property; they are selling taxes."

Pure poetry, man.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:03 | 1365509 falak pema
falak pema's picture

They are selling what they want you to buy ...or better still; what you will be obliged to buy. The law of the Oligarchy: Supply side triumph...ah, yes true poetry!  Rape is a technicality, a pipe dream of victim. The notion does not exist in the eyes of the conqueror,  as conquest has its own specific values, prize; don't debase it by your menial logic and your absurd terminology...Oh, to be an Oligarch...to talk thus with superb aplomb, like a prince walking in Elysian fields or watching his image of graceful conqueror reflected in the "Gallerie des glaces" of Versailles. Which is a must for all self respecting Oligarchs, like that jack-ass Mittal, who married his daughter at Vaux-le- Vicomte. Like a new Nicolas Fouquet. He had never read french history...to know the sequel to that lèse majesté.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:00 | 1365503 kumquatsunite
kumquatsunite's picture

Exactly.

Combine the welfare class of "I'll have as many kids as I want and those nice social workers can just chase me around to see if they are being cared for" with all the benefits of the welfare class and the smartest people in the room are the welfarians with their blackmail babies. The problem, as anyone with two cents for brains knows, is when they decide that you aren't "giving" to them, they decide they are owed, and we be there now.

When people had to work to eat, they kept themselves well-mannered, shoes tied and shined, shirts pressed. Ever look at a TSA agent, sloths personified. Trash from the gutter with their wrinkled shirts pulled off the floor and thank gawd they wear those gloves because if you saw their hands and nails there would be a shut down of immigration into this country (especially muslim immigration) so fast you couldn't see lighting move like that.

So for those of you who've been cavailing about Ben Bernanke (whom I admire tremendously for using a bunch of string and well-chewed gum to put this economy back together so it functions at all), just remember this. Greenspan was vaunted and held out as a prophet for juicing the economy, called "maestro", at least until the juice ran out. Now Mr. Bernanke shows up in front of a Congressional panel and is treated like a criminal. So what's he doing, well it looks to me (and this is a IMHO, of course) that he's decided to say scwew u to all those who've been attacking him for a problem He Didn't Create.

So now we are going into a six year downturn and you're gonna see and feel the pain. Too bad so sad. He doesn't need your bitching and complaing. So fix it yourself this time, he seems to be saying. And who can blame him? 

Rather than this Entire Country falling to its knees and saying mea culpea to our children for acting like two year olds who wanna eat all the cookies Right Now, the adults of this country Should Have been the ones shutting down immigration to save the seed corn of resources, this country had, for our children's future needs. Instead these resources are being used by the trash from the third world (oh sure, you Adopt them and then You Can Pay For Them)...water that belonged to the future, clean air that belonged to the future, California!! that belonged to the future, et al, has been given away in the mass immigration that has balkazized, reverse colonized, and gutted this country's ability to defend itself and its way oflife. Oh sure, point the finger about discrimination against American blacks but that was on its way to finding a place of equinamity, now you have 160-plus languages spoken in the Los Angeles School district and your children are just a highway to retirement for teachers with their self-annointed twenty years and out.

There's gonna be hell to pay because these kids are gonna figure out what you've done to them and the country they had the right to (Calfornimexico...catchy, eh?) and Oboma's death panels may be something you only wish were available. 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 13:49 | 1365272 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Special computer-enhanced reconstruction of headline:

 

Now let's see, hmmm...I left that tasty, honey-coated recovery right here, next to the pig trough...but where is it?  I cannot seem to find it.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 14:17 | 1365367 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"Where Is The Recovery?  I Cannot Seem To Find It"

"It is in your pocket with the 'Change' I promised!"

Barry Soetoro

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:04 | 1365525 MolotovCockhead
MolotovCockhead's picture

Investing in stocks is not saving for a rainy day.

 

Right on, investing in stock is like playing poker with open cards!! Federal Reserve is private owned, private owner will of course want to maximised their profit, of course they will manipulate the market. I bet The Rothschilds owned half of the most valuable companies of the world if not more.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 15:50 | 1365642 falak pema
falak pema's picture

"Champagne is more fun to drink than goat milk"...Ninotchka...Cyd Charisse...Silk Stockings.

 

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 16:03 | 1365657 doesmybuttlookf...
doesmybuttlookfatinthis's picture

Awesome the market closed up 1 point. Thank God the correction is over........It is over isn't it?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 19:55 | 1366266 Kali
Kali's picture

$4B in POMO and all I got was a lousy one point?  Long live the king.

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 21:00 | 1366448 sasebo
sasebo's picture

Does a bear shit in the woods?

Mon, 06/13/2011 - 22:23 | 1366669 knowless
knowless's picture

it's marroon, duh, psssh.

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