Guest Post: Who, How And Why: $140 Oil And $5 Gas

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Llewellyn King of OilPrice.com

Who, How and Why: $140 Oil and $5 Gas

According to a loosely-organized apocalyptic Christian movement, May
21, 2011 will be the "end of days."  On or about that same date, the
price of oil in the United States will begin to climb to $4 a gallon,
according to two savants of the oil industry.

The former is highly unlikely but the latter is very probable.

The escalation in the price of oil is predicted by the legendary oil
man T. Boone Pickens, known for his financial acuity as well as his oil
expertise, and John Hofmeister, who retired as president of Shell Oil
Company, to sound the alarm about the rate of U.S. consumption of oil.

In an interview with a trade publication, Hofmeister predicted that
oil would rise to $4 a gallon this year and to $5 a gallon in the
election year 2012. Separately, Pickens—who has been leaning on Congress
to enact an energy policy that would switch large trucks and other
commercial vehicles from imported oil to domestic natural gas—predicts
that oil currently selling for just over $90 a barrel will go to $120 a
barrel, with a concomitant price per gallon of $4 or more.

The Obama administration appears to have been slow to grasp the
political implications of an escalation in the price of oil. When asked
about it, outgoing White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs referred the
questioner to the Department of Energy.

Not everyone is alarmed by the incipient rise in the oil price.
Republicans, who are especially close to the oil industry and its
Washington lobby, orchestrated by the American Petroleum Institute,
think that a great deal of hay can be made while this particular sun
shines. They plan to attack the administration for spending too many
resources on alternative fuels, over-regulating the industry, and
keeping too many federal lands away from oil prospecting. They also
accuse the administration of being too frugal with its release of
drilling areas in the Gulf of Mexico and on the two coasts, as well as
Alaska.

The Republicans have unlikely bedfellows in their quest to politicize
the price of oil. They are joined by environmentalists who have long
believed that only high prices will break America's passion for the
automobile.

Environmentalists have long advocated European-style taxation to drive motorists out of their cars and onto buses and trains.

A third interest group that will take some pleasure in rising oil
prices are those who are invested in alternatives such as ethanol, oil
from algae and electric vehicles.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund is keeping an eye on the
price of oil, according to Caroline Atkinson, director of external
relations at the IMF. She told a Washington press briefing that the IMF
is particularly concerned with food and other commodities that are
directly affected by the price of oil.

Hofmeister, who now heads the non-profit Citizens for Affordable
Energy that advocates energy development in all forms, believes that the
United States could increase oil production from the current 7 million
barrels per day to 10 million, half of its consumption. He told an
interviewer from Platt's, an energy publisher and broadcaster, that we
were "essentially frittering at the edges of renewable energy, stifling
production in hydrocarbon energy," which he said could lead to
blackouts, brownouts, gas lines and rationing.

There are already signs that the Republican-controlled House of
Representatives is planning a big push for hydrocarbon energy. An
indication of this comes from Rep. Fred Upton, R-Mich., a one-time
global-warming believer who has dropped that issue from his agenda. He
is the new chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

In periods of high gasoline prices in the past, presidents have found
there is very little that they can do. Their options are to reduce the
tax on gasoline, sell oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or the
Naval Petroleum Reserve. President George W. Bush went a step further:
He went to Saudi Arabia twice to ask the Saudis to increase their rate
of production. Twice he came back empty-handed.

All of this would be good news for the oil producers and especially those troublesome players, Russia and Venezuela.

Of course, if you believe the human endeavor ends on May 21, better fuel the SUV and hit the road.

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goldmiddelfinger's picture

..and $20.10 for an ounce of silver.

mynhair's picture

They put it there and I'm backing up the truck....

JW n FL's picture
by mynhair
on Thu, 01/13/2011 - 17:08
#874517

 

They put it there and I'm backing up the truck....

********************************************************************************

I will shoot you and back my trucks up! Palin Map Rules Bitches!

JW n FL's picture
by mynhair
on Thu, 01/13/2011 - 17:08
#874517

 

They put it there and I'm backing up the truck....

******************************************************************************

How many dummy's that are all gold... will have to trade into silver?

how much are you charging as the new bank of "mynhair" for that swap? gives taxation without representation a whole new luster doesnt it? 

Betty Swallsack's picture

Me neither.  For shits and giggles, I 'Googled' May 21, 2011, and here is the result (we're all gonna die - again - *yawn*):

http://www.ebiblefellowship.com/may21/

 

swmnguy's picture

Thanks for the link.  I hate it when we all die.  Actually, 5/21/11 is the date of the Rapture.  The world isn't destroyed by fire until 10/21/11.  So those of us "left behind" get about 5 months to have fun with all the stuff left unattended.

BTFD!

Freddie's picture

If the Muni Bond market blows up on 5-21-11 or before it - these end of days Rapture folks will be looking pretty smart.  They sound more sane then The Ben Bernank.  Illinois is going to have a tough floating muni bonds.  Ditto Calif.

As far as silver to $20 - the hot money for gold and silver is going to food commodites and oil/nat gas.  precious metals may cool off for a little while.

Bearster's picture

T Boone "rent seeker" Pickens

downrodeo's picture

ya, I would like to see if he would make money or lose money if his plan was fully implemented. If I had to guess...

freedmon's picture

Pickens is a scam artist. A little while ago he was trying to greenwash himself with his "Pickens Plan" for wind farms in the Texas panhandle. No doubt, built by friends of his, on lands he owns. He was asking people to support his plan by writing the government.

Now here he is again, asking to feed at the government trough. You know that he's got money in natural gas, and he'd happily take the contract to supply the trucking industry.

Maybe he is a brilliant businessman. He certainly knows where the easy money is.

Calmyourself's picture

As you know he abandoned that plan when no one would pay for the expensive transmission lines to connect his windtowers. ha

Rent Seekers extraordinaire, T. Boone and GE

swmnguy's picture

"He certainly knows where the easy money is."

And from whom it is soon parted.

Big Red's picture

the windfarm(s) were one thing, he was really about water rights...

Confused's picture

BINGO!!!!

 

I find it amusing how this never comes up. This guy is a fucking parasite of the worst kind. 

 

Alternative energy indeed. We can go without oil. Water...not so much. 

hambone's picture

Never happen...Ben will just print more money...uh, wait, that won't help? 

Ok, Never gonna happen cause Ben will print twice as much money...uh, won't help?

Don't triple dog dare Ben...he's just crazy nuf.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Other than the obvious oil speculations, there are other ways to play this jump (if it happens) in oil prices.

-- Au, Ag, Pt, Pd (kind and tolerant ZH-ers may forgive me for repeating ad nauseum)

-- Food ETFs DBA and CORN will likely parallel movemont in crude oil prices

Looks like 2011 is not going to be a kind year to us.  Prepare!

mynhair's picture

The Mayans can't count?

mynhair's picture

vs 5/21/11, a slur on all Mayans

scatterbrains's picture

or maybe even 11/11/11  at 11:11:11 o'clock.

 

look for the party on 111st at apt. #11

mynhair's picture

OMG!  It takes a stupid response to a stupid comment to generate stupid replies!

I (heart) ZH!

Calmyourself's picture

That is the answer alright.. For everything, forever and ever.. Thanks for the fish.

DosZap's picture

Time set?, 11/11/11,111st,#11@11:11:11 p.m.(What zone?)

hambone's picture

Is there a theme (smart casual, tinfoil, toga) or is this just a "come as you are"?

Hate to feel over / under dressed.

andybev01's picture

On May 22nd all of those holier-than-thou christians are going to wake up to discover that the rapture didn't spirit them away, then they will drive down to the corner gas station and fill up their econo-boxes with $5 a gallon gas.

...and I'm sure it's the former that is going to make then more angry.

mynhair's picture

but the Libs will still be rolling in their Volts, right?  Until they aren't.

Confused's picture

why does anyone still play into the libs/conservative paradigm? Neither of them speak for you, even if they were truly different. 

 

aerojet's picture

With any luck at all, they will go all Jonestown on themselves and then there will be a bull market in body cleanup companies.

midtowng's picture

It never ceases to amaze me how the religious nuts look forward to the apocolypse, as if they know they are holier-than-thou.

Blano's picture

Not all of us do, trust me on that.  I find these date callers offensive as well.

DosZap's picture

Offensive, no, ignorant.

Only ONE knows the time, and day, and hour.

robertocarlos's picture

If you're not in the top 144,000 then you are doing something wrong. :)

Hulk's picture

Camping called for the end of the world in 94...wonder if he and his followers will be paying their taxes this year??? I'd just file an extension...

101 years and counting's picture

$3 gas is already killing demand, which is down YoY according to mastercard and spending pulse.

 

 

mynhair's picture

$3.18 here, but I still have half a tank.  Fill up now, or later?

DosZap's picture

Does it make a Hill of beans?,react, adjust, drive on.

It will be what it will be.Chinese wont be paying that, Gvt subsdizes their gas/diesel costs.

Actually, all BS aside, I have brough this up here many times,I must admit to being perplexed.

We have more Natural Gas reserves than ALL of the ME,combined.

Yet, instead of offering a $1k option for a conversion swithchover, we are dead set on electric, and trilions of $ of research for electric, someone clue me in, as to why we are so foolish.

All but the largest trucks could operate fine of Nat Gas.

 

hambone's picture

Who's this Mastercard and Spending Pulse you speak of?  WTF do they know?

According to the talking heads on TV (who quote other talking heads), Americans DEMAND more cheap stuff and always will.  Cause they're Merican's...and Merican's are incapable of not spending, even a lack of spendable cash won't stop them from spending. 

If times get harder, look up for a beard shaped bald headed beacon in the sky...run to the helicopters and bring sacks...spending must be maintained.

Don't listen to stupid facts, focus on the all knowing heads.

Jasper M's picture

I will call that hand. 

mynhair's picture

Do you klowns not realize there is a rating system for articles?  I'm the only vote in.....

Jean Valjean's picture

Why should I believe a guy who interchanges the word "oil" when he means "gasoline"?  This is an expert?

Dr. Porkchop's picture

+1

You will often be junked for being a pedant, but poor spelling, grammar and logical errors will erode credibility for me. Take the time to proofread and hit the damn spell check button.

Sabibaby's picture

...and sometimes you'll be junked if you're just a dick.....

 

hey! I got the captcha rite!

mynhair's picture

When they make a car with separate tanks for ethanol and gas, color me in.

How hard to put a straw in the correct tank?