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Guest Post: Who's Scoffing Now
Submitted by David Galland of Casey's Report
Who's Scoffing Now
A couple weeks ago, the family and I watched Dirty Jobs, an
altogether entertaining show from the Discovery Channel. In the
episode we watched the host, Mike Rowe, serve as a mechanic in the
military. There were a couple of things that caught my eye.
The first was that, using nothing more than a cleverly arranged array
of blocks and tackle, five members of the mechanics group were able to
easily muscle a well-stuck 5-ton Humvee from deep sand. We humans are,
indeed, a creative and intelligent species.
The second thing was the strict adherence to protocol, with everyone
acting almost robotic in their issuance of commands and responses, and
surgical in their use of equipment. Even so, this slavish adherence to
“the book” is understandable, given that the soldiers operate in
extremely difficult, dangerous, and often chaotic circumstances.
Therefore, I had to raise an eyebrow the next day. when BBC reported
that of $9 billion allocated to the U.S. military to be used in Iraq
reconstruction projects, fully $8.7 billion has gone missing.
Proving, once again, that no matter how well plans are laid or how
tightly “management” might think they are controlling things, gaps in
process can open up that are wide enough to drive a Humvee through – a
Humvee full of cash, in this particular case.
Similarly, we are led to believe that the Treasury and the Fed, having
applied the right combination of monetary and fiscal blocks and tackles
on the well-stuck economy, have freed the economy from its quagmire.
In this case, the biggest sovereign debt crisis in history.
In support of that contention, the following appeared in Bloomberg, a steady cheerleader for the administration and its friends on Wall Street.
For all the criticism of record budget deficits, President Barack Obama can
take comfort knowing that for the first time in half a century,
government bond yields are declining during an economic expansion and
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner is selling two-year notes with the lowest interest rates ever.
The combination of record-low yields on two-year notes, 10-year
rates below 3 percent and a deficit projected to surpass $1.4 trillion
for a second consecutive year is a signal that the bond market is less
concerned with government spending than with getting the economy back
on track.
It’s kind of ironic, I find, that the very same people who are quickest
to scoff when hearing the phrase “This time it’s different” – namely
the professional investing class – apparently see nothing to worry
about in the idea that the world’s largest debtor can run the world’s
largest deficits… and do so at historically low interest rates.
To which I would comment, “Trust your eyes.” If it seems as though the
situation is untenable, it very likely is. The only real question in my
mind is, how long can this fiction persist? To that I don’t have an
answer, but I suspect that when the truth of the situation is revealed –
possibly by the roundabout path of seeing one or more of the large
Asian economies come unglued – things will get far uglier, far faster,
than most people suspect.
After all, for things not to “be different this time around,” the
mountain of unpayable sovereign debt must be resolved in a currency
crisis. To believe otherwise is to believe in Easter Bunnies and in the
proposition that, like the military, the U.S. government can meet
every challenge – the former through a concentration of force, the
latter by bankrupting future generations.
I can’t speak for what you’re seeing in your neighborhood or hearing
from your customers or friends, but everyone I talk to says that, at
best, things are holding the line at “bad,” but, for the most part, are
not getting significantly worse. No one has told me that things are
actually improving.
That my ground level perception may be the correct one seems to be
confirmed by the latest consumer confidence readings – which just fell
to a 5-month low, the wrong direction for a recovering economy.
Yet, in stark contrast to what my eyes and ears are telling me, the
cheerleading for a robust recovery in the mainstream media is becoming
almost deafening… just as you would expect in the months leading up to
an important U.S. election.
While it may just be inherent stubbornness, we here at Casey Research
remain steadfastly bearish, for no other reason than that none of the
big-picture economic challenges have actually been solved.
Which is to say that we are the ones scoffing at the idea that this
time is different – it’s not. In support of that contention, look no
further than Bud Conrad’s chart below, from the March edition of The Casey Report. As
you can see, the world’s two largest economies, the U.S. and Japan,
are solidly in the danger zone and likely past the point of no return.
Depending on your ability and willingness to take risks, you may wish
to stay especially liquid – or trade the volatility that is inevitable
as the train periodically looks like it’s about to leave the tracks (in
time, it will). You can do that by buying the VIX index (there are
ETFs for that) or by buying good assets (gold, gold stocks, deep-value
stocks) on the dips and selling on the rallies.
Of course, some people will buy into the idea that the crisis really is
behind us, deficits and debt be damned. Others, including yours truly,
believe the markets are being played like marionettes by the
administration and its allies ahead of the November election.
In time, I strongly suspect, we the people are going to wake up and
find that our government has spent trillions of dollars in its attempt
to put in the fix and, as has been the case with the military’s Iraq
reconstruction efforts, 96% of the money will have simply vanished.
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Elegantly put, collapse by December?
Santa will save us from Timmay the runaway elf that wants to put coal in everyone's stocking.
http://occultview.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/geithner-obama.jpg
Move along, move along...
If a real money standard is the value created by real human production and services that are transferred about as in specialization of the society. Fake money, not a representation of real transferrable work-product value, can only be used to pay off Fake debts. There is no point to what the FED is doing, worse it can be strictly considered criminal. They have clearly exceeded their rights and have usurped Constitutional Autthority without any person or entity calling this criminal agency to task.
To put it another way, Judefetzen vs real money (gold). Reichsmark was called "judefetzen", or "jew confetti" in Berlin - 1923.
And the junkers better not get in an uproar. I'm just sharing a fact. I didn't make up the name.
You have an air of narc about you.
I was just thinking that
More labels and name-calling? You'll have to do better than that.
Hey, ya like videos? I've got thousands, and by now you know I like to share.
Two things you need to learn. First, most of the visitors here have a knack for seeing through to the truth. One of the benefits to intelligence. And if you appear transparent to me, to the really truly smart ones here, you are wasting your time. Second, we care not for what the MSM thinks or what the populous thinks of this site. TD and Marla and the lot, are not seeking popularity. So, try if you must, you will not discredit this site.
If I have spoken out of turn, TD and Marla, I apologize. I shouldn't speak for you. This is just the evidence before me.
Love the book from whence your avatar originates!
It's populace, moron.
"If I have spoken out of turn, TD and Marla, I apologize. I shouldn't speak for you. This is just the evidence before me."
Simpering, whining little ......
he noted he was not one of the really truly smart ones.
Yeah, as a matter of fact Hitler did get a lot of mileage out of that one. So should I warn my urologist you're coming after him?
In 1923 the German currency was the Papiermark. In 1924 the Reichsmark replaced the papiermark, with the Rentenmark (credit to Hjalmar Schacht) serving as a transitional stabilizing currency backed by real-estate assets. No doubt the Jewish Bankers, Max Warburg, for example, had their own name for the hyper-inflated currency, perhaps "Pay back the French Notes." The Reichstag and finance ministry were not ruled by Jews at the time.
Germany got so bad that workers had to be paid every hour and then spend their wages as if they waited until the end of the working the banknotes would be on the verge of being worthless.Coins had disappeared from circulation long before,first silver,then bronze and finally tin and zinc as the coins got debased and were worth more as scrap.Finally there came a time where cash ceased to exist as chocolate and cigarettes became currency.Workers receiving wheelbarrows full of notes in payment was fact.
They have clearly exceeded their rights and have usurped Constitutional Autthority without any person or entity calling this criminal agency to task
It took the international bankers about 150 years to institute the Fed, with many real patriots on both side of the aisle fighting tooth and nail to prevent it. Unfortunately one December morning in 1913 while most of D.C. had gone home for Christmas 3 senators (or was it congressmen?) had and oral vote and passed the FRA and that Benedict Arnold, Judas MFer Woodrow Wilson signed it into law.
They have clearly exceeded their rights and have usurped Constitutional Autthority without any person or entity calling this criminal agency to task
And since the entire edifice of the modern Leviathan welfare/warfare state rests squarely on the foundation of the central bank, no one in politics at this point dare call it into genuine question (except bold men like Ron Paul), because to do so is to threaten the farcical basis for the belief that centrally managed economies work. When that belief crumbles, all things become possible.
Did this make the bobo better.
1924
Shortly before his death this year, President Woodrow Wilson made the following statement in relation to his support for the Federal Reserve,
"I have unwittingly ruined my country."
Please stop being stupid. From Wikipedia (for fuck's sake):
After months of hearings, debates, votes and amendments, the proposed legislation, with 30 sections, was enacted as the Federal Reserve Act. The House, on December 22, 1913[7] , agreed to the conference report on the Federal Reserve Act by a vote of 298 yeas to 60 nays with 76 not voting. The Senate, on December 23, 1913, agreed to it by a vote of 43 yeas to 25 nays with 27 not voting.
Japan, the 800 pound gorilla.
That chart looks like the red-arrow of default is headed into Japan (okay slightly off, but you see the picture).
And any amount of jawboning won't change a thing, momentum being what it is.
And "stay especially liquid" how David? Cash? Short-term bills?
More of the same same? Guns, gold and Ammo?
Whut?
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Aah, but Japan is the rub isn't it? It's been going through deflation with low interest rates for 20 years, with no end in site.
Makes me wonder if a slow grind is still possible rather than some more immediate crisis.
"
Aah, but Japan is the rub isn't it? It's been going through deflation with low interest rates for 20 years, with no end in site.
Makes me wonder if a slow grind is still possible rather than some more immediate crisis."
Perhaps we can "muddle through" but don't forget that while Japan was in a personal "muddle," the rest of the world was not - and so Japan was able to sell a lot of stuff to the rest of the world.
IF the rest of the world is struggling and thus buying less - Japan (and everyone else) is in BIG TROUBLE.
They have been surviving as the beneficiaries of the Ponzi. A "Ponzi" that has run out of "suckers."
"If it seems as though the situation is untenable, it very likely is. The only real question in my mind is, how long can this fiction persist? "
Yup, Japan proves that the structure (a national one, at least) is resistant to total catastrophic collapse. While QE seems mad and inflationary, the 'too much money chasing too few goods' inflationary theory has an awfully large pool to disperse in when the $US is the global default currency.
I suspect the bigger threat, in terms of systemic collapse, come from Libor, Euribor and Baltic Dry type crisis. The interesting part will be if/when these indices decide to completely ignore how many $US are in physical or binary circulation
As has been pointed out elsewhere, Japan's debt was floated on top of the highest savings rate in the world. They self financed the whole circus. Now that generation of savers is retiring, and those savings are being diverted to retirement, healthcare, and death. They are just now at the threshold of joining the remainder of the impoverished sovereign ponzis looking for the next sucker to buy their bonds and transitioning that level of debt load from internal to external will be a world altering event.
Why do people continue to think the creation of monetary base through debt issuance is inflationary? It is only when the equation is broken that inflation will arise (or deflation, depending on whether you choose to die by fire or ice). Borrowing money is not the same as outright printing,... until it is. Japan will be the first to pop, sending shockwaves throughout the world, and I imagine the whole thing will get swept clean by the full nationalization of the Federal Reserve at some point to, in essence, attempt to put a helmet over the monetary grenade.
Japan, being a monoculture with a very strong "shame" reflex, has the ability to deflect reality for far longer than most, but these same impulses have also given rise to a supersaturated solution of credit, that, one day, will precipitate out precipitously.
If TPTB succeed in fooling the collective populations that using fictional (not fractional) reserves to buy gov't debt, so that the masses can be kept on the dole, only to one day make the entire issue vanish by eliminating the inter-related amounts, then we are truly living in the matrix and the sheeple who accept such programming deserve what they get.
Very astute righteous. Insightful.
Interesting addition is that the shame culture is also fast disappearing. Most of my Japanese colleagues were late 20's and totally anti-establishment, loud, exploitative.
Shame was forgotten completely in japan when the Emperor continued in power after Japan's so-called defeat in WWII.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Chet, your comment prompted a fleeting thought: When did "growth" become the holy grail of life? Cannot a society maintain some status quo and get along without having to have new gadgets, new cars, new houses, bigger and better crap all the time. Deflation means, to most folks in its most colloquial sense, lower prices for the stuff we really need every day. Leaving out debt, debt, and more debt, what's so bad about that? Just wondering out loud.
Maybe we can get that Idea to oBummer.
Ha it's funny cause if we could "Leaving out debt, debt, and more debt, what's so bad about that" we pretty much wouldn't have a problem.
LUUcy someones knocking on the door and I thhhink they waaaaant their money.
You don't think one guy can fix this do you? Come on, get real. Obama is a convenient lightening rod created by the folks who started it -- why would they stop it, or allow him to? We are destined to a life of vitameatavegamin.
Great observation Rocky.
Growth at any cost is the lingering, climactic end of the supply side paradigm, ne? And a survival mechanism in Capitalism's DNA?
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Growth isn't a survival mechanism of capitalism, it is a consequence of capital accumulation that is inherent to a free-market system of production under the division of labour.
Crony capitalism, or debt-ponzi "capitalism" on the other hand...
Jesse James (the contemporary motorcycle builder) made the following comment about the English metal wheel (used for smoothing out sheet metal): "Getting your finger caught in it is like hitting your finger with a hammer, only it's continuous." (or something to that effect)
Sandra Bullock probably showed him how it felt to get other body parts caught in the English wheel! Actually, the wheel is different from the hammer, but they will both do a number on flesh.
funny you bring up an english metal wheel. i believe i used one. really cool, you can also curl your metal. doesn't have to be just sheet metal, right? W I D E apparatus. just talking
S H O P with the boyz, really nice doing that. but have come to realize i can engage in some of the conversations going on in ZH. thanks.
meeant to say H O e 's
At this point, installing bars on doors and windows to frustrate the merely inquisitive as opposed to the truly desperate, long-term food storage, preferably most of it hidden behind a false wall, and something like those airplane bottles of liquor for trade, would all be reasonable moves. Bury your hoard, keeping only a little out, hidden someplace obvious and easily found. These are all traditional steps taken by the prudent in uncertain times.
This is a double dip recession in the middle of the longest depression on record. Low interest rates are not a good...and higher interest rates are less a danger here to the status quo than interest rates falling. You fear higher interest rates, but what you should fear is the opposite...
At the zero bound monetary policy has already failed.
charley - dont tell that to Leo.
Whatcha mean the bike won't go through brick walls? I'll just gun the engine even harder...
1/2 mv ^ 2
What are peoples thoughts vis-a-vis the sequence of a crisis?
I tend to think, based on nothing but a hunch, that there could still be a period where people panic and rush into bonds, making them even more expensive. I guess I see the following:
Stocks plummet;
Rush to bonds;
Eventual sovereign crisis;
Bonds plummet;
Rush to cash, or PM for the wise;
Inflation.
Any of you wiser folks want to add/correct anything?
I think that would be the natural course - but artificial circuit breakers are trying to prevent /interrupt that - which is why I suspect, as mentioned above, it might be more a case of one day waking up to find all the ATM's are on the blink because of Libor-type spikes /total loss of trust from bank to bank.
Most working stiffs live far away from Wall Street and wouldn't even know why to go about buying a bond, let alone how!
Stocks plummet;
Rush to bonds;
Eventual sovereign crisis;
Bonds plummet;
Rush to cash, or PM for the wise;
Inflation;
gold confiscation;
currency revalution.
Gold confiscation, eh? Under what premise would the Gov take away pieces of metal from the people they sold it to? They can revalue fiat without it, so explain. What would that do to the world price of gold? So now the Americans would suddenly become the poorest people on the planet, and say "thank you, sir, may I have another?" Indian brides would buy out the properties that Trump and Wynn evacuated in their haste to leave the country? Do tell us Henry, I'll buy you another round.
Its been an interesting week and its good to see the PMs bounce back after yet another orchestrated mauling from the cartel.
We are actually further down the Wiemar road than most people think.
First is this spectacular increase in the sale of US treasuries to the category termed "Household".
Eric Sprott, Jim Willie and ZeroHedge have provided very good coverage of this topic.
The sale of US treasuries to this category is set to rise 3500% on a year to year basis from 2008-2009.
if Q4 continues in the same vein as the first three quarters. The yearly total will amount to in excess of $700 billion of sales to a category which is very vague to say the least.
The Fed sell these treasuries to third party dealers and a few days later they sell them back to the Fed. All very cozy and the auction goes well except where do the Fed hide these purchases in their accounts?
You've got it...under this miscellaneous item... which was never more than a rounding up item until last year.
This is a huge increase and you can be sure that sales to the "Household" category are well up again this year as the Chinese have actually started selling their treasuries, or at least trying to.
Have they got wind of whats going on?
Something has definitely spooked them lately.
Firstly they set up their own rating agency which straight away reduces The US from AAA to AA. Then this week we have former Central Bank Officer Yu Yongding saying that US treasuries are not safe in the long run.
He also goes on to say that they are "unable to sell them in a big way".
This is after they reduced their holding in May by $32.5 billion. From this statement its obvious that they wanted to sell more but couldn't get them away. These developments are very strong indicators that the US is heading rapidly towards extreme inflation.
The first thing that happens to a currency heading down route that it is rejected abroad.
This has happened in every case of extreme inflation and it seems to be happening with the US's main creditor.
Another prerequisite development is the monetization of the country's own debt.
This is happening under the "Household" item and is always a sure sign that extreme/hyper inflation is waiting further down the road.
Now we have food inflation beginning to arrive. If they gives us some version of QE2 or QE lite, which looks very probable, then we reach a tipping point and head into some serious inflation.
As individuals watching there is not much we can do except prepare ourselves as well as possible in every way.
Silver coins will be crucial for everyday purchases and physical gold will preserve value as the paper goes down the toilet.
We should get as mentally, physically and emotionally fit as possible for the challenges that lie ahead. Read Antal Fekete as opposed to all those Keynesian dorkheads who always try to make things overcomplicated.
The situation at the moment is we have a patient choking to death on the vomit of too much debt. The solution from our Keynesian leaders is to ram more vomit down the patients neck. This where the Keynesian endgame kicks in.
{ REMEMBER THE BEST...FORGET THE REST! dp}
GO GATA
Interesting. I was thinking that gold is not money for groceries, it is money's money, that is, money to purchase currencies - dollars, yen, euros. You're giving it quite a demotion.
+1
Thanks.
Let it burn, let the mofo burn!!!
Kick ALL of the bums out of all three branches of government and let the prosecutions begin!!!!!
Have to agree. I read one story where everything was normal in Wiemar Germany. Then one day the store shelves were empty. I think we have more warning signs but who knows. Once, in my youth, after a long night of lightning and thunder I approached a wild buffalo herd in Oklahoma from downwind. I merely dislodged one rock that cracked against another and the nervous herd bolted into a stampede. I was on an open hillside with no trees or boulders to climb onto, just lucky the buffalo ran the other way. Gotta watch that lightning and thunder.
Intense image Treeplanter and an excellent analogy to boot.
Tinder feels dry indeed.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
damn your little adventure sounds like something i had a while back. riding up in W I L D C A T back side. uphill from me i could see and hear a huge Wapiti herd. spooked by M E! stampeding D O W N hill towards me. i had to throw my bike and take cover behind the b i g g e s t aspen tree i could find. aspen trees are about as skinny as i am. this was exhilarating are it was scary. they are huge with B I G ass antlers, some of them mind you. spring mating, i just would go up on wildcat ridge and listen for their mating call. powerful animals,
E L K.
@DP... "The first thing that happens to a currency heading down route that it is rejected abroad."
Excellent point. At what point do the oil exporters stop taking dollars for oil? We don't need more crap from China but we will continue to need oil since we consume 18 million barrels a day and only produce about 6 million barrels internally.
Recently Saudia Arabia announced that their gold reserves had been 'incorrectly accounted for' and that they had nearly 3 times the gold that they had previously reported. Who is paying for Saudi oil with gold?
Lots of questions, damn few straight answers!
Everyone
@DP + Excellent.
Another prerequisite development is the monetization of the country's own debt.
If Q4 continues in the same vein as the first three quarters. The yearly total will amount to in excess of $700 billion of sales to a category which is very vague to say the least.
The world will not buy unlimited US debt. The creditor of last resort is the Fed.
"$8.7 billion has gone missing."
Don't worry it's not missing. Do you want success in a conflict? The pay the enemy not to fight back.
But because of the wikileakers and FOIA bishes this cannot be openly recorded on the balance sheet so it's declared 'missing'.
Anecdotal, but I buy an Indian takeaway every couple of weeks on a Friday - I asked the people tonight how busy they are - 'Very quiet' - and each time I've asked them over the last month or two the answer has been the same. A local Chinese has been the same and they have friends in Sheffield (a city!) who have been unable to pay their staff because it's been so quiet business wise.
It doesn't augur well.
DavidC
It seems to me that my entire mid-sized city has slowed down this summer. People are attributing it up to the normal summer lull, but it seems different to me. Much more pronounced.
I notice a lot of what you've mentioned. Empty restaurants. Less foot traffic on the commercial street near my house. Just slow.
Has anyone ran the numbers on commercial air traffic? I just happen to live about 40 miles north of a southeastern U.S. international airport, directed under the departure and arrivals approach, I can tell you, there has been a dramatic decline in air traffic compared to 3 years ago.
We have a restaurant strip here with Carinos, Outback, Applebees, a couple of larger local restaurants, about a dozen in all. Always packed! Full parking lots Friday and Saturday nights. It is amazing and I wonder how these folks can afford to eat out enough to keep the restaurants afloat. Maybe not paying those mortgages helps...
Chet...I live in a sea side summer resort town and it is very slow here in what should be the busy season. Even ammo at Wal Mart is back in stock! Best Chinese Restaurant in town is dead slow...I was there for dinner with wife last Fri night and 4 of 32 tables were occupied and we didn't see the usual biz at the take out counter.
Anecdotal evidence is sometimes best!
Any country that isn't represented on the graph at point: 0%:0% is DEAD! What's so wrong with living DEBT FREE?
That chart doesn't have the scope to accomodate fiscally responsible countries. Norway would be in the negatives.
Regards
Thanks! That's because they enjoy eating Surstromming! Viking food! :) But they still do have a Marxist central bank, don't they? "In the long run, we're all dead" ~ John Mynard Keynes.
Here's your money shot:
"In time, I strongly suspect, we the people are going to wake up and find that our government has spent trillions of dollars in its attempt to put in the fix and, as has been the case with the military’s Iraq reconstruction efforts, 96% of the money will have simply vanished."
You are all to cynical! It is obvious that this is just another business cycle recession, nothing to be concerned about (sarcasam off). I was told by a co-worker today that this is the bottom for equities and prime bargin hunting time.
Must suck to be the guy at the Treasury that answers the screaming phone calls from Larry Summers every day at 11:13am and 1:30pm. "Why is GD DOW down! Can't you idiots keep the market up! Get in there and buy. I don't care about the numbers and the reports! I don't care what it looks like! I want 100 points in the next 30 minutes or you will be on unemployment too!"
It's difficult to get a good idea about how the military works by watching a TV show. It's like CNBC vs. reality. No big surprise that money is missing.
Livinig in a rural setting, I can't really feel the pulse of the people.
Should the "ugly" scenario come to pass, what are the chances of "blood in the streets"?
I have been asked how much unrest can we expect by a number of people and I honestly cannot answer. Anyone care to venture a likely scenario?
I honestly cannot answer either.
If my wife would allow it, we would be in living a rural setting too (Llano County, Texas would be my first choice).
Hard to say how likely there will be blood in the streets. Next time you go to a bookstore, you might want to check out a pair of survival fiction books: Patriots and One Second After.
Here in the suburb near a big city where I reside, things are very quiet as well. My brother in another state tells me that in his small city that things are very quiet. Our daughter in a BIG city says they are having lots of problems, she works for bankruptcy attorneys...
Hi Do chen,
The rule of thumb in these situations is; Smaller city, lesser blood (if any). Small cities people banding together and organizing better.
Large cities hard to distribute food. More chances of crime gangs forming along racial lines. Terror.
Suburbs of large cities will be the targets of inner city crime gangs as they are easily accessible.
One place that will always be safe is the predominately Italian neighborhoods. Shoot first ask questions later. No political correctness there. Have a nice day dude. Bang!!
Hi to you as well Oracle.
I wonder what Lima would look like if TSHTF here in the US?
Maybe the poor countries are relatively stronger in really bad times, and so maybe my wife and I moving to Peru might be a better deal than living here.
Or maybe a ranchito up there in the Ceja de Selva (not around coca farms though) would be the life...
"I wonder what Lima would look like if TSHTF here in the US?"
Ughhh. I'm sure Ohio would be a madhouse.
Ohhh, did you mean Lima, Peru?
Ahhhh, Llano County, paradise indeed. Make the move DoChen, make the move. You will be glad you did.
There is another interesting aspect of rural life. In big cities, "law" protects the citizens from the criminals (at least in theory). In rural areas, "law" protects the criminals from the citizens. I am not implying corruption, just that citizens are more zealous for an orderly community than what the system allows. Should there be a collapse, the drug dealer and crime problems would be cleaned up in about 15 minutes.
The Texas Hill Country, in my mind, offers one of the best quality of life possible.
Spent a lot of quality time outdoors vicinity Killeen. Nice country but to humid for me and to many chiggers. I'll take the next state over -- due west.
Pegasus Muse
your beautiful.
i have come to embrace all the mythology and everything old and classic, literature, philosophy goes on and on for me. i flunked mythology like about everything else in H.S. cept ART and mechanical drawing and gym. i love just adore all the meaning. and you pegasus is the most beautiful meaning. In Mythology Pegasus, is the white Seahorse of Revelation, the white seahorse in the sky, and the white seahorse of memory within you.
that is simply splendor in the grass for me. thanks everybody, still counting of course. haven't figured it all out just yet, but it is appearing in fragments, mind you.
oh i forgot to tell you all, i was the only girl permitted to take the mechanical drawing, of course it was all M A L E S ‡‡‡
Mystoc Shores at Canyon Lake (42miles outside San Antonio)
:)
Mystic Shores at Canyon Lake (42miles outside San Antonio)
:)
I live in a mid-sized city. I'm trying to figure out why a "blood in the streets" scenario would even play out. Crowds of angry people going after... who exactly?
I could definitely see deterioration into higher crime rates, less personal safety. But I can't figure out what the "revolution" scenario is supposed to mean? I guess there could be a period of looting and lawlessness if there was a sufficient trigger for such passion.
I don't see how events would play out that were any worse than in the late 60's, early 70's. Those were some bad riots and bad times in certian cities, but hardly the end of the republic.
History tells us that in such situations where loss of confidence in government and law enforcement, food is hoarded away from the shelves.
No offence, but if you had ever stayed without food for three days or longer, you would not ask that question.
Yes. Riots have been short lived. but in protracted situation all bets are off.
Think about Katrina but not a week but one year. The cops will be the trolls taking commissions for safe passage. Just an example.
Katrina taught us many things. Not putting your trust in .gov may be at the top of the list.
...
Oracle, are you going to join us at the ATMs on Thursday August 12 to pull $500 out? This is our little way to send a signal that we are MAD at .gov and bankster malfeasance re our economy. Get enough of us to yank the $500 (or local currencies) will send a nice signal that there those of us who ARE prepared to ACT!
Come early! Lines might be long!
DCRB, are you promoting the cash out day anywhere else? Surely, the few dozen folks here and their unbelieving acquaintances won't do much damage. I'll be taking out a grand on the D-Day (debt day).
Hi again Rocky, always a pleasure writing to my friends here at ZH (inc. Oracle and Rebel who had interesting things to say).
Only by email and at fofoa.blogspot.com.
It's not the damage, I want to send a signal that will be caught by .gov and banksters.
Someone told me that Twitter is the fastest way get the word out. What's a Twitter?
:)
You can also do a Face Book page but you'd be sacrificing some anonymity. Might not be a good idea unless you want us all over at your house for the gold $30,000 bash. I'll bring barbeque ribs.
Oracle is correct, when the store shelves are empty, for whatever reason, people will begin looting whatever they can in cities. In rural areas, food production is both local and distributed. I don't anticipate such things in most rural areas.
Being our media is owned by the same people that looted and subverted, I wouldn't expect to see much coverage on the boob-tube.
That said, you're probably in the best position you can be, as suburbs will be the first to get raped by desperate and starving city-dwellers that spill out once truck drivers are no longer willing (or able) to get supplies through.
In short, you might not witness much trouble in your area, though you'll probably feel lucky not to be too close to the "pulse of the people".
Kissinger (Israel-firster), called you and me "useless eaters", if that's any indication of what they have planned for the masses.
"Anyone care to venture a likely scenario?"
No blood in the streets in our neck of the woods over a monetary collapse. We will go on doing what we have always done. Respecting people and their property (a much healthier "lifestyle choice" than demanding a portion of either and being confronted with a 12 gauge) and sharing our bounty among us, whether a bumper crop of vegetables in the warm months or meat in the cold months. Fish being year round fare, ya know, bitter clinger type stuff. Might want to consider an independent/stand alone energy source...wind, solar...that's about it.
The metro areas, well who knows. They can win a championship game and cars overturn on their own and buildings spontaneously combust...LOL.
It's a different world in there...been there, done that, got the tee shirt and the scars to prove it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8BjKQkym8w
In the rural area I have relocated to, I swear, if there is a collapse I don't think anyone would notice. Just as you describe . . . self-reliant, generous, honest people. They will just keep doing what they have always done.
I scratch my head why someone would junk you. Perhaps your audacity to suggest, gasp, that one should be willing to defend home and family.
Let's see, in the USA urban and suburban population in 2010 is at 275 million or 82.3% of the total population
source : http://esa.un.org/unup/
Just tell me where those 275 million people are going to find the food they need to survive when the supermarkets they depend on are going to become empty?
Methinks people in rural areas are going to "notice something" when they see hundreds of millions of hungry people from suburbia comming their way and ready to loot and scavenge whatever they can get their hand on...
This looting of the farmland happened to a limitted extent during the Weimar Republik. It was limitted because:
In the 1920s
% of urban population was much smaller than today (less than 50% compared with more than 80% today)
a large % of urban population had small vegetable gardens back then, they were far less dependent on supermarkets for their survival. Today, they're all gone.
People in rural areas will only be safe when they have organised themselves in communities and are ready to push away hungry urbanites in a ratio of ten to one. Oh, and they have guns too. Not a small task...
I would postulate the ratio would be much smaller, say four or three to one. The elderly and infirmed of the number cannot go. Of the healthy ones, they would probably be starting to succumb to whatever happened "in there" first. They will be weak from hunger, sickly from bad water (diarrhea, dysentery etc.) and going into areas they are not familiar with. They would probably not be able to drive out by this time as the roads will either be impassable or too dangerous for travel, if they even have gasoline. They will be walking for the most part.
And then they come to one of the few remaining bridges over any river. Any superior numbers with bad intent they may have had starting out with would be lost here. As they say, in the crossing, the survival rate would drop to zero.
Suggest you read Patriots by Rawles ...
In a SHTF economic collapse, Urban & suburban populations will be mostly immobilized due to fuel supply collapse. No gas anywhere !!
The masses will be on foot ...
Yes, they will be hungry & thirsty, but they won't get very far.
+1000. I don't understand how people think that food trucks will have screeched to a halt, but fuel tankers are just a hummin along, keeping the pumps flowing at Super America?
How are these 275 Million people going to get to us Ruralistas in the first place, let alone in strong enough condition to kick our asses for our food?
Not saying there won't be problems, but IMO, the biggest danger posed by the Golden Horde is to themselves.
Cannibals Bitchez!
"They will just keep doing what they have always done."
Exactly. Normal people doing normal stuff with a few modifications regarding personal security.
The area we moved to has abundant fresh water, land and game. Sitting here watching a doe and her fawn right now nosing around the blueberry bushes which are done producing.
Something else for the city dwellers to ponder. We moved here in 1995 built our house 01-02. It is just over the last five years that we have been generally accepted. I knew this coming in, that we would be viewed with suspicion. Just being sized up by the "locals". A perfectly normal thing in a rural enviroment or any I suppose. Point being, one can't just plop down in an area where ones values are the opposite of those around them and expect to be accepted or give or recieve succor should the need arise.
"I scratch my head why someone would junk you. Perhaps your audacity to suggest, gasp, that one should be willing to defend home and family."
I am quite aware I have an abrasive personality at times...LOL. I've made it clear that I hate communism/fascism in all it's forms while at the same time I value charity.
Perhaps it is their realization that I sit around whittling a stick to poke in the eye of anything that would supplant the individual as the supreme force in our affairs that drives them crazy. Don't much care about juvenile punks who junk from behind anonymity.
They would be cannon fodder in the city or road kill out here in any case ;-)
Warning: very graphic content. After-action report of rolling 2-3 hour Nuevo Laredo gunfight.
Takeaways: quantity of ammunition expended => quantities of ammunition brought to the fight. Note the high number of ammo carriers on the web gear and the number of magazines recovered. Open daytime wear of tactical gear by bad guys. What would you do if you stopped at a red light and the guys in the truck in the next lane were wearing web gear / suspenders? Severe lack of effective cover in urban roadway setting. Did these guys think they were going to win quickly? No use of rifle plate? Don't bring a handgun to a gunfight; if you're not training CQ rifle you're not training. And I have to say I am curious about this: Why the radios; obviously, the backup either did not arrive or was ineffective. Did the Mexican army use air assets in this action, or was this a surface action only? Does the length of the action indicate willingness to maintain contact, or does it indicate dogged pursuit by authorities? This matters. If anyone has more info about this please post. If this crap spills across the border (how can it not?) everything changes.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/35201752/NuevoLaredoCartelGunBattle7-16-2010
Off hand I'd say the radios were not for calling in backup but to keep others in different locations informed or coordinate actions among the cells given a task.There appears to be three (cells/squads) in this incident.
We must remember, Mexico, for all intents and purposes, is a failed state. Corruption is rampant. There is no law there, only force. If the "law" wanted it stopped it would. They are brutal enough, but it doesn't. Now it is here. The fact that Arizona, in essence, screamed at the Feds for not enforcing it's own laws should be all a rational person needs to know.
As to the weaponry, I see M16's & AK's. There was an attempt last year (Hillary if I recall) to say that most of the cartels guns were being bought in the US and smuggled into Mexico. There is no basis in fact in the charge. More on that if your interested.
The head shot (from your link) was interesting (ballistically speaking) unless it was photo shopped. I have never seen the 7.62X39 or the 5.56 round do that kind of damage. A Barrett rifle could do this when employed by a sniper. Not aware the Mexican military has them, but it could be explosive ammo as well. If the picture is real.
The body armor can be bought most anywhere. You need the side panels and breast plate for it to be as good as advertised.
"What would you do if you stopped at a red light and the guys in the truck in the next lane were wearing web gear / suspenders?"
LOL...Col. Jeff Cooper had a color code he devised that seems appropriate for civilian self defense. I try to live by it in day to day activity away from home. It ranges from white to red. Simple things like leaving plenty of room between you and the car in front of you at a traffic light...and of course not being in the middle lane of a three lane street at the light. Watch you mirrors...side and rear. And carry, of course. It is better to have it and never need it than to need it and not have it as they say.
Basically, if you live your life away from home in condition white you deserve what happens to you. Life is not "fair". It never will be from each individuals point of view.
Live it like you drive your motorcycle...every car on the road does not see you...but you see them.
Anyways, that was my thoughts on it.
lets see, there are 40 million or so people on food stamps in the good ole' US of A. They have no money, no job, probably no decent place to live, and a keen understanding that they are screwed with no way out. These are folks with nothing to lose, always a sub-culture to beware of even in the best of times. Stay where you are,(in the country), hunker down, and don't waste your ammo, if this regime doesn't wise up soon its just a matter of time until the yogurt hits the fan.
Spontaneous and persistant blood in the streets due to a financial crisis in the west is pretty rare from what I can see. It didn't happen in a big way in Argentina, the US in the 30's, or Weimar. You have your occaisional Beer Hall Putsch or Waco. But the Max Max scenerio seems to be unusual. From what I can tell, as long as people have a way to suck it up, they will.
Michelle is doing her part to to help the world economy......
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1300852/Spanish-police...
Truly a woman of the people...LOL...Michelle Antionette Obama.
All rise with heads bowed, her fifth vacation in as many weeks is now in session.
"Only the little people pay taxes." -- Leona Helmsely
"And, it's not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations." Barack Obama
Not religious, so clinging to my guns extra hard.
‡
To which I would comment, “Trust your eyes.”
That's what I always say: "Listen with your eyes."
Talk is cheap.
Great piece!
".....we here at Casey Research remain steadfastly bearish, for no other reason than that none of the big-picture economic challenges have actually been solved."
Amen to the highlighted portions: those biggies are banks (FASB 157 may be the greatest Ponzi of all times), housing, and debt, debt, and more debt.
US Blues.
Casey researchers, I hear, already have their bunker in Northern Argentina next to Vineyards and the Andes including a golf course amongst people who will actually never be affected by any of this.
.
5 junks H E A D
i am no longer taking ZH junks personal, any more, just junk away every one.
The irony you see can be easily explained away. This irony exists because (most) of the professional investing class does not look farther than 3-6 months ahead. Even when they say they do, they do not. Time frames beyond 3-6 months will be considered in 3-6 months.. So most 'professional investors' don't see the deficit as a problem now, and their trades reflect this. Who the hell in their right mind would buy 30 year treasuries at current yields and plan to hold them to maturity? Yet there is a market for them on the basis that those who buy plan on selling 'eventually'. Just like people will eventually buy gold, or eventually sell their 401k holdings.
Saying that "it will be different this time" is just another form of denial. As humans dislike change, they use their abilities to reason away the first hints that change is in the wind...
Interesting NYTimes article on Mexico and how the government is being challenged by cartels...This by Calderon, Mexican President...
"Mexico: Cartels Move Beyond Drugs, Seek Domination"
"MEXICO CITY (AP) -- President Felipe Calderon said Wednesday that Mexico's cartels in many cases have moved beyond drugs as their main money-earner and are even trying to supplant the government in parts of the country.
Speaking at an anti-crime conference, Calderon said gangs are imposing fees like taxes in towns they dominate, extorting money from both legitimate and unauthorized businesses.
''This has become an activity that defies the government, and even seeks to replace the government,'' he said. ''They are trying to impose a monopoly by force of arms, and are even trying to impose their own laws.''
Calderon said cartels may even be taking money from churches. ''I do not doubt that they are also extorting money from priests and pastors in this country,'' he said.
Drugs are becoming less of a focus for the gangs, he said.
''Their main business is not anymore even drug trafficking, sometimes,'' Calderon said. ''Their business is dominating other people.''
remainder of story at link... http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/08/04/world/AP-LT-Drug-War-Mexico.html?_r=2
Conclusion: Govts do NOT like competition!
Which came first, Drugs or Government.
drugs
It wouldn't matter so much that the money vanished if it hadn't wound up as bonds we have to pay back, with interest.
I was expecting the final crash in March - I can't imagine what is keeping it afloat right now other than outright manipulation of the markets...an un-audited Fed being a convenient tool for doing just that.
Ok, that is fine and all that, we are doomed but,
Who is paying that $375,000 for Marie-Michelle Obama-Antoinette's vacation?
I remember, the check is in the mail, I love you and it's good for your teeth, really.
i have one
won't come in your mouth‡
Communist Dike (pun intended) Chief Justice Kagan just sworn in. Pefect timing. Little Timmy ran out of things to stick his finger in to stop the leak, er, crack, er, catastrophy.
Very true saying,if you borrow $10,000 from the bank its your problem,if you borrow $1,000,000 its the banks problem.Difference is today it dosen,t appear to be anybody,s problem.In fact more debt is the answer to the problem.How many problems make a a) Panic b)Mania c) Frenzy d) Collapse ?
10-year... one more big dip down to 2.30ish and then ascends at a sick rate....
..or in price terms, the stern rises as the ship splits... and then the Titanic slips into the ice Atlantic...
"He will find his destiny"..