Guest Post: Why I'm Buying Silver At $30

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Tue, 02/22/2011 - 18:15 | 986605 Whizbang
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You're buying PMs for the same reason everyone else is, short term ultra-leveraged investment for short term gain. Good luck

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 18:18 | 986614 tmosley
tmosley's picture

10 years is short term?

Are you an immortal?  THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 18:38 | 986674 malikai
malikai's picture

My timeframe is 18-20 years. Perhaps by then these silly 2010 eagles will be valued not on the metal, but as collectors items of a lost empire.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 19:16 | 986772 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

+2011 ASE

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 20:57 | 987016 RockyRacoon
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Is it possible to build a blog-bot that snags the top spot for its trolling?

Sure looks like it, eh?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 21:37 | 987126 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

There's no point in talking about a dollar price for silver, or gold either--unless you're just in it for a short scalp.

I've been in the silver trade since it was $4 per oz., and I'm not about to trade it for paper dollars that are debasing at the fastest rate of my lifetime.

If silver went to $5000 per oz., would you trade an ounce of silver for 5,000 worthless federal reserve wipes that wouldn't buy you a gallon of gas?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 22:12 | 987197 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

if silver goes to $5000 in a few days, i'm selling all mine to buy the yankees.  then, i'll be paying my staff and players in fiat money. 

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 05:33 | 987904 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

If it goes to 5000$, I'll buy myself a island (somewhere in Greece )

Take on 6 extra wives and retire :)

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 05:48 | 987913 malikai
malikai's picture

Dude 6 wives are expensive, even if they're former dictator's nurses. But I'm with you, $5000 silver and I'm buying an island somewhere. It's GTFO time then.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 06:57 | 987938 tonyw
tonyw's picture

If silver goes to $5000 per oz. it means that everything tangible and necessary will also comparably increase in price, so what most people miss is that they will have protected that amount of wealth rather than made a profit. Remember 2,000 years ago one oz of gold would buy a good suit, today it will still buy a good suit not 150 good suits.

Disclaimer, very long PMs especially silver and believe it is undervalued.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 07:42 | 987963 unky
unky's picture

one oz of gold will indeed by you 50 taylored suits in china. if you think one oz of gold will buy u a nice suit give me all your gold, i will give you twice the amount of suits, a good business for you ?

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 07:27 | 987957 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

One oz.  Sure, to pay the month's rent on my studio apt. with a few hundred bucks left over to buy a bag of onions.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 20:09 | 990908 h3m1ngw4y
h3m1ngw4y's picture

if id get one ounce of silver for everyone who is in this bull market since 4$ there would be no silver left for all the others ;-)

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 07:37 | 987960 unky
unky's picture

i will make some nice copies by then ^^, so dont worry, it will still be just the metal value which is of course much higher.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 18:39 | 986680 impending doom
impending doom's picture

This article highlights why the old guard of financial reporting is dying: some guy said this, some guy said that, anonymous officials reported that... Cite your souces, please. I've probably already read them, but how do I know it's not the nearest homeless schizophrenic?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 18:43 | 986686 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

I agree.  10 years ago did anyone say silver would "correct" to $25?  Did anyone say it last year?

So why now?  Just plain stupidity.

Here's my forecast, does anyone care?  I believe that when the truth comes out that the banksters and ETF's have ZERO silver in possession, the thing will skyrocket above $2,200 / oz.

But that's just my opinion, like the idiot that thinks it will go to $22.

Who's right?  Guess we'll see.


Tue, 02/22/2011 - 19:08 | 986750 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

 buy, hold, repeat

i could see a short term drop to mid twentys, akin to the drop in pm's in '08 when folks needed to raise cash

but it wont stay there, nosiree

it'll rise again,just like its been doing last couple years

and i'll buy the fucking dips.hold.repeat.

until such time that we establish a currency that one can have faith in again


Tue, 02/22/2011 - 19:12 | 986761 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Casey is a gentleman, and the folks with differing views are not going to be WIPED all over this site, if he respects them.

I have one trader in mind who has told me flat out to not buy, as it is going to these levels.I have been anyway,he's made great calls dead on before, so if I piss my pants, its on me.

I will just DCA.

The reason I an ignoring the sage advice of this guy, is because their are way too many Back Swans circling, and no one can CALL those.

Also, And the second reason for continuing to buy, is China, Asia, India, they are eating Silver UP.

Also Gold.There will come a point soon when world mines absolutely cannot keep up the amounts of either needed.

If the LONGS stand for physical delivery, Comex is screwed.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 19:18 | 986770 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Do not underestimate the long reach of the banksters. They are getting a much needed oxygen tank from the spoils of Tunisia and Egypt. Soon the Libyan gold&silver will be theirs too.

And then Chavez's gold&silver will be next to be transfered to the JPMorgue vaults.

It's no coincidence all this is happening before the March deliveries.

Maybe....Wynter Benton is going home in a body bag! doo dah doo dah

Oh well, he did try. Just like "Another" (of foa/fofoa/fofofoa/fofofofoa/fo...foa fame) tried years ago. In the end, "Another" was caught holding a bagful of "worthless fiat paper" in a rat hole outside of Tikrit. And his precious...yep, taken away.

We all need to buy more silver to crack the piggybank.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 23:46 | 987473 living on the edge
living on the edge's picture

Oh well, he did try. Just like "Another" (of foa/fofoa/fofofoa/fofofofoa/fo...foa fame) tried years ago. In the end, "Another" was caught holding a bagful of "worthless fiat paper" in a rat hole outside of Tikrit. And his precious...yep, taken away.

Can you expound on your above comment concerning "Another"? Thanks

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 05:08 | 987890 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Any chart that starts with the Hunt brothers' high (which lasted about 2 seconds) is pretty bogus.  I like silver, but be real...

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 19:01 | 986735 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

But, but, but , Bob Prechter said gold was going to 600..........

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 22:16 | 987202 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

shit...i wish gold would go to $600.  time to load up!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 23:36 | 987332 akak
akak's picture

Bob Prechter has given up trying to make any sort of market calls, and has instead joined Karl Denninger and other deflationists on a voyage to find the edge of the flat earth, which rumor has it lies just beyond the Isles of Fiat Bliss and the Sea of Eternal Paper. 

I just hope their charts don't lead them onto the Golden Shoals, or even worse, into the Maelstrom of Silver.  "Beyond here there be dragons ..."

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 19:21 | 986798 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

isnt taking 1980 prices, and assuming we are going back to them kinda like driving while looking in the rear view mirror?

Dont get me wrong, I love silver but the 1980 silver price, and why it went there, has nothing to do with where its going today and why its going there.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 19:52 | 986880 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Fractals, my friend.  Everything is a fractal of something.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 02:42 | 987786 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

I wrote a paper at Williams entitled, Is Fractal Geometry a Hoax?

Not only did I receive an "F", the professor commented, "This paper is a devastating failure by every metric imaginable. Is this paper a hoax?"

I have it framed in my office.




Wed, 02/23/2011 - 02:58 | 987799 akak
akak's picture

What kind of grade is an "F"?

You mean one can do worse than an "E"?


In any case, it clearly takes somebody of your obvious intellectual caliber, RNR, to discover whole new sub-levels of failing grades.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 11:39 | 988494 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The American grading scale goes A, B, C, D, F.

No idea why.

Also, lol at RNR for being proud of his ignorance of math.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:01 | 990724 akak
akak's picture

The American grading scale goes A, B, C, D, F.

WTF?  Since when?  When I went to school, it was simply A, B, C, D, E, with no Fs or Gs or Hs in sight (and believe me, I know --- I received EVERY one of those letters in my first year of college, LOL).  What universe is this reference talking about?

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 01:19 | 987690 nontaxpayer
nontaxpayer's picture

Now I totally agree with you.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 06:57 | 987931 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Akak's right Rob Prechter has given up trying to predict the PM's, but his Elliott Wave clown side-kick Steven Hochberg hasn't despite throwing his charts in the bin literally every week because his predictions never work. I'm surprised Hochberg hasn't topped himself yet but no luck, he just ignores unapoligetically his fuking incompetence to subscribers and plows on with his latest wonderous pile of shit as if his last 50 pieces of shit never happened!!

Having said that i think Prechters deflationary meltdown is spot on. To my mind inflation is now peeking (hence the inflation hysteria in oil, food and PM's which accompanies any peek). We're going to suffer a 1929 and Japan 1989-2011 deflationary meltdown (credit card implosion) simply because that's what always follows historic levels of credit (debt).

In fact deflation, rather than inflation, is absolute common sense but it's hard to put that across to groups of euphoric near-hysteric inflationists!

Debt is the problem. Full stop. And when debt implodes it results in deflation, not inflation (of anything). It's not a popular view, in fact it's a positively extreme minority view, but the consensus usually calls it wrong  

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 07:02 | 987944 tonyw
tonyw's picture

I expected deflation by now but have been shocked surprised by the lying, cheating and stealing that the govts have done to kick the can down the road and prevent/postpone deflation. Now i think there is nothing they wouldn't do to continue this and keep themselves in office for one more round.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 08:43 | 987993 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Kick the can, the easiest expedient decision, what a wonderous bunch (all) politicians are! ...they're undoubtedly making the deflationary meltdown even bigger when it (Credit Crunch II) comes

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 09:08 | 988016 ATM
ATM's picture

Debt WAS the problem.

That problem has now been drowned in a moutain of fiat. The problem NOW is that debt is now worthless fiat which has spread that debt problem from the borrowers and lenders to everyone and the only course of action for central banks is to keep printing as fast as they can and to keep getting faster.

Lenders are being made whole by way of free cash which they  swap for real assets as fast as they can and before that free cash loses more purchasing power. That cycle of debasing the purchasing power of fiat starts slowly as the blind masses (homage to obama) cling to their religion of the almighty dollar.

Once the cracks in the fiat myth begin to show, the onrush of price inflation will commence in real time.

Now we may see some short term deflation but The Bernenck and all the other central banksters will never allow that to hold. They will print, print, print and flood the world with worthless crap and pray the sheeple are too stupid to see what's happening until it's too late - which is exactly what will happen. Then Kaboom. 

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 09:13 | 988018 ATM
ATM's picture


Tue, 02/22/2011 - 20:49 | 986997 Math Man
Math Man's picture

"You're buying PMs for the same reason everyone else is, short term ultra-leveraged investment for short term gain. "

I am still shorting silver for the same reason - it's going to blow up in everyone's face.

This is the hiccup before the puke.

Waved in some more puts today. 

$5 bucks to dig it out of the ground, but it's selling for 30+

Not to mention SLV has over 10,000 tons.  Hard to have a shortage with 10,000 tons still sitting in a vault.  If you really needed silver to settle a delivery, you could just buy SLV and convert it.

And JPMorgan had a trading profit every day last year while the price of silver went up 80+%.  They also shut their prop desk over the summer to comply with the Volker rule, making the odds of a massive short position, well, ZERO.

Silver will be below $20 soon enough - it was trading there a few months ago.


Tue, 02/22/2011 - 21:03 | 987026 RockyRacoon
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...SLV has over 10,000 tons.

Your credibility just flew out the window -- the tiny sparrow that it was.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 21:20 | 987058 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Prove to me it doesn't.

There is a list of all of the ALLOCATED Silver bars held by SLV on the SLV website.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 21:22 | 987084 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Jeff Nielson has done a huge amount of legwork on this.

He has numerous links in his stories to other commentaries and original research pieces that he has done.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 22:09 | 987191 Math Man
Math Man's picture

The is NOTHING in that link that proves SLV does not have the silver.

Only speculation and conjecture.

Mr Nielson's primary argument seems to be that JP Morgan is the custodian.

He neglets to mention that there is a list of all the ALLOCATED bars and that the holdings of SLV are independently audited.

Do you really think they just create an imaginary list of bars every day (there is a new list every day) and pay off their auditors?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 22:22 | 987226 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You're way late to the party on this subject.  Sorry.

That keg's been tapped so many times that the brew is flat.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 23:02 | 987355 akak
akak's picture

Do you really think they just create an imaginary list of bars every day (there is a new list every day) and pay off their auditors? 

Why the Hell not?  How hard could it be?  Their buddies in crime over at the Fed create FAR more imaginary wealth every day to try and pay off their creditors.

Are you Math Man, or Rain Man?

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 06:00 | 987916 malikai
malikai's picture

Don't insult Rain Man like that. He was excellent at mathmatics. I believe Rain Man would also be able to look at the bar list and immediately see the dupes and recognize the questionable nature of said list. I did, and I'm an idiot.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 00:18 | 987555 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Yes, too true, could not agree more-know if you will please continue to dispense with the magic ferry dust and all will be well. Just click your heels together.....

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 07:38 | 987920 malikai
malikai's picture

JPM and Monsanto teamed up to invent a silver-shitting unicorn. The price of silver will now drop to $0.20. Also, when the unicorn leaves the Monsanto farm, the terminator gene makes it self destruct. So forget about getting one of them for yourself.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 11:41 | 988502 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Try reading again.  Not just the first paragraph.


Wed, 02/23/2011 - 02:47 | 987789 IEVI
IEVI's picture

@Math Man


Dude, you've been a member for 5 weeks and the only articles you've commented on are articles about silver or gold. I couldn't waste my time looking through all of them..but the few I looked through all were all promoting JP Morgan's trading profits and trying to claim JP Morgan isn't short silver. Do you realize who you are dealing with on this blog..your not going to fool anyone here. In fact, I don't think you are even to engage anyone in a stupid argument with you. Did you think no one would track your posts??? Seriously..try the yahoo boards.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 03:02 | 987807 akak
akak's picture

Government-paid trolls and disinformation agents are not going to bother messing with the knuckle-draggers on the Yahoo boards, who are, ironically, mostly all Yahoos, and who in any event are not inclined to discuss elite corruption, oligarchic control of our political, monetary, financial and media systems, nor most of all the Achille's heel of our floundering fiat monetary system, the unraveling gold and silver price suppression schemes.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 04:40 | 987871 purplefrog
purplefrog's picture

Many thanks!  BTW we are now at the point where there are very few alternatives to PM.

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