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All your Q's and E's are belong to us, make your time bitchez...?
heh
Will QE save the equity markets ?---Yeah, sure, why not. They'll have to save 'em without me tho; frankly I don't give a rats ass.
A: Not relative to gold.
the "crisis is in the prices"--not in the gold. gold is a great hedge against "risk" and harbinger of one as well--but not "prices." certain equities however can "trade like gold" when the crisis is the prices. obviously we "are not yet at the crisis" however. debt markets are the most liquid they have ever been and equities are rising to "take advantage of the crisis in the prices" which according to the government "is all in our heads and not real."
+1
Q: will real wealth continue to go on strike?
A: yes, but the poor folks can still play "stocks and bonds" in their 401(k)s with monopoly money like that there JD Rockefeller!
Billionaires all around! shovel-ready jobs!! a chicken in every pot, I say!!!
What's the point if you and a good percentage of the population don't have a job? It's all about jobs stupid.
i don't need a job, stupid. i'm independently wealthy, stupid. how about you, stupid, are you feeling stupid? ...you should be, stupid.
perhaps i'll flip you some silver when you come to clean my house so you can feed your family, stupid.
the point stands, stupid, because rich folks do not need a job, stupid.
think about it, stupid. thanks, stupid.
FTW!
In Soviet Russia 36,000 goes to Dow.
Q: Will Quantitative Easing Save the [US] Equity Markets?
no, i think this is a job for Underdog.
500 billion? WTF is that going to do for real estate?
The market has like 2 trillion priced in-and going parabolic
Exactly! Besides, the frauderal reserve has been "putting a floor" to the market/farce from day 1 of this crisis!!
Precious metals going ballistic.
One really has to get the feeling this past week that the wheels are about to fly off this entire motherfucker. Terror warnings, inflation taking hold like mad, the mortgage mess. This shit really is nuts. I wonder if "the event" will come before or after elections.
All right! Now for the really BIG NEWS: "Little green men exist, and they'd like to say a few words..."
"How to serve man", the cook book.
The whisper of QE2 is seemingly brilliant.... "its coming, don't dare go fucking short"
but then the market gets ahead of itself ....
...and the echo comes back around .."easing again will be the greatest financial bluff of all time, don't even dare to fucking go there or you will be called out"....
Meanwhile the idiocy of the two year election is stifling even the modicum of rational thinking capable inside the Beltway and we enter the truly embarrassing (I am not a witch..) dumb zone...
i'd love her even more if she said she was one. all i see passing for policy these days is "rolling the bones" anyways. and i am not embarrassed. i'm amazed that a single incumbent even wants to run let alone show their face. what precisely have they "brought home"? these higher prices have been with us for years now--and more government has just made it worse. one could have "effective government" but at this point i think we're in full "punt to Wall Street mode" because "we're from the government and we like talking to media people now." interestingly it seems possible for Wall Street to actually do something about this. In the 70's Wall Street said "you want us to do what?" which made for great movies, country music and the rise of stand up comedy. apparently "this was the wrong answer when it came to running an airport."
Looks like you picked a helluva week to quit sniffing glue! :>D
...."its coming, don't dare go fucking short"
....we enter the truly embarrassing (I am not a witch..) dumb zone...
Great one-liners MadHouser. ! And true too. Man o' man do I ever want to go F-ing short but man o' holy man am I ever nervous I'll get chewed up and spat out in little slimy pieces by Bernie and the bots.
Silver just broke $23/oz as Sydney closed. Gold at 1348.20. Both are looking parabolic at the moment.
Japanese debasing brings in a whole new wave of wealth preserving buyers.
my only hope is that Bernanke does not own any gold personally so that he can clean my house someday.
How about a Judge? I hear "they get paid in dollars too." Tough job being a Judge.
to what are you referring, doolittlegeorge? please, explain. your point about judges is missed. do you think i am a judge or something? WTF are you talking about?
Honey, you aint seen nuthin yet!
Oh well, it's only money...
That's the order of the day. Many in power (political and financial) want to maintain the belief in "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter" aka "We got away with it before...why wouldn't it just keep working?".
It's self serving to the power elite to maintain status quo. They want to be like the aristocrat rentier class of old Europe, living off debt servitude forever.
What's remarkable is how many times they're going to repeat the same experiment, following in Japan's footsteps without it's export-based economy. At least Japan just has deflation. We're heading straight for biflation. It's PMs all the way.
biflation, bitchez. its the buzzword of 2011. all the cool kids at school will be talking about it.
cars and houses go down, PMs and food go up.
as for deficit spending: of course these monkey politicians will do it until it doesn't work. they cannot help themselves. "over promise and under deliver" is their mantra. so many laws to pass and things to control, and so little time.
i'm sort of enjoying the fact that the market does not give a fuck about their agendas.
I'm sort of enjoying the fact that the market does not give a fuck about their agendas.
I think it does. PMs are telling us that real money is losing faith in cash and bonds. People are breaking ranks and jumping to PMs with increasing allocations. The whole situation is too damn scary.
As for biflation, yeah...the cool kids will talk trash about it while flashing anything made of gold or silver. Bling will rise even higher as a status symbol, cars and houses will be so 2000. "We got 10 gold bars at home...what do you got?"
what do we not agree about, Caviar?
i meant that the gold market does not give a fuck about their agenda, by going up! i've got the gold and silver bars, too, my friend.
communication breakdown; i was making your point, albeit sarcastically.
"Biflation"
Right on!
I like it.
I was discussing QE2.0 with a friend in a coffee shop today and the guy in front of me turned around and started needling me, seriously, he went all Erin Burnett on me. But I stood my ground. So this went on and before I knew it I saw a flash of light and felt that familiar smart of a punched nose. I got in one little fight and my mom got scared And said you're moving with your auntie and uncle in Bel-Air I whistled for a cab and when it came near The license plate said "Fresh", and it had dice in the mirror If anything I could say that this cab was rare But I thought man forget it yo homes to Bel-Air I pulled up to the house about 7 or 8 And I yelled to the cabbie 'yo homes smell ya later' Looked at my kingdom I was finally there To sit on my throne as the Prince of Bel-Air
+1
And mother nature seems intent on keeping government busy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11475361
I'm pretty sure Mother Nature's has a good alibi for this particular crime; we're keeping ourselves busy.
Anybody pick up on Bernake's speech to the Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council? The MSM isn't touching it.
"As I have discussed, projections by the CBO and others show future budget deficits and debts rising indefinitely, and at increasing rates. Almost by definition, unsustainable trajectories of deficits and debts will never actually transpire, because creditors would never be willing to lend to a country in which the fiscal debt relative to the national income is rising without limit."
"One way or the other, fiscal adjustments sufficient to stabilize the federal budget will certainly occur at some point. The only real question is whether these adjustments will take place through a careful and deliberative process that weighs priorities and gives people plenty of time to adjust to changes in government programs or tax policies, or whether the needed fiscal adjustments will be a rapid and painful response to a looming or actual fiscal crisis."
"The budgetary position of the federal government has deteriorated substantially during the past two fiscal years, with the budget deficit averaging 9-1/2 percent of national income during that time. For comparison, the deficit averaged 2 percent of national income for the fiscal years 2005 to 2007, prior to the onset of the recession and financial crisis. The recent deterioration was largely the result of a sharp decline in tax revenues brought about by the recession and the subsequent slow recovery, as well as by increases in federal spending needed to alleviate the recession and stabilize the financial system. As a result of these deficits, the accumulated federal debt measured relative to national income has increased to a level not seen since the aftermath of World War II. "
http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20101004a.htm
Ben having one of those Minsky moments so soon?
Japan's move this week proves that deficits don't matter anymore when the inmates are running the asylum. It's going to be "Go ahead, make my day" with central banks playing Dirty Harry. They want inflation but they'll create biflation.
Maddow or maybe it was Keith had a 2 minute bleep quoting Bernie's line about out-of-control deficit but mum's been the media word otherwise so far as I've seen/heard.
All right, Ben! Just prick the Uncle Sam balloon already!
@carbon
Thanks for that link. IMO, this is just more good cop/bad cop jawboning from the Open Mouth Committee. Bernanke's real agenda is in what he does, not what he says.
great post, carbonmutant. thanks.
I get the feeling they wont announce QEll, but they will think they are clever with Moral Suasion, and say something they think the market will interpret as the same thing or that it is coming.
The question is, once the mkt see's thru that, will it be the death knell ?
Its already priced in and is ready for a fall.
It's a seductive idea: the price of everything goes up uniformly with the size of the "money" (i.e. credit) supply. If the money supply doubles, then the price of everything from swiss watches to condos on South Beach doubles, right? Right?!?
Wrong.
Unless that money makes its way into the hands of customers, then QE can't keep forcing stock prices up forever, unless you believe that P/E's can go up forever.
While QE has been tried for decades (in Japan for example), the idea it causes stock prices to go up is not proven, to put it mildly.
Go long equities at your peril.
QE anticipation sent gold higher in % terms than the Dow. That's diminishing returns setting in. Stocks are still denominated in dollars and that lowers the % gain even more. Moreover, dollar instability and currency wars introduces a downside risk that pertains to stocks, not gold.
+1
exactly.
+$1T... one only needs to compare gold priced in Yen to the Nikkei over the last 10 years.
Bearster:
unless you believe in the limit E-->0 P/E
- Ned
It's not whether QE will save the markets. It's what will happen if they stop. They have gone too far with this madness. The market's a heroin addict that can't be cured. Three bubbles in a decade? You can send it to rehab but it keeps relapsing and needs more drugs.
The fed has to keep it (market) propped up for the number of years needed for baby boomers to live off their 401K's while maintaining a lifestyle of 2 cars, snowmobiles, 4 wheelers and a boat. Can you imagine the civil unrest if retirees find their trusted portfolios reduced by 88%? So bubble after bubble will be created and nurtured in hope of preserving the mom's apple pie America.
"Can you imagine the civil unrest if retirees..." What are they going to do at age 67+? Unless you bring in chuck norris or jackie chan!
Bi-focal rifle scopes and hover-rounds!
can you imagine the civil unrest if baby-boomers had to settle for 10,000 square feet of house per person versus 15,000 square feet now? could you imagine the social unrest if they were forced to car pool?
oh, the humanity!
never before have so few resources been squandered by so many. spoilt brats, i tell you!
one generation grows up during the Great Depression, wins World War II, and comes home to give their children all the things that they never had. unfortunately, they created monsters.
The Italians seem to have a rather elegant (though likely not truly effective) answer to the markets:
Eloquent AND MOVING! Can we get some virgin babes to dance around it as "performance art" too?
hilarious.
O man, Gold is a clean short here. I longed it from 1263-1324. Now I have shorted it at 1348 for a min target of 1300. The more it has stretched with speculative longs on COMEX reaching unbelievable proportions, the more stronger the fall will be. This was easy.
There is a planned CBs central meeting with BIS late 2011/2012. But given the speed with which Gold is running, it can usher in the meeting much before planned. The agenda for the meeting is to counter the foolishness of FED which is hell bent on exporting chaos to the rest of the world. The much spoken hyperinflation may just be around the corner for much of China and India and for no mistake of theirs. There are 3 currencies which are being spoken to control hyperinflaiton as and when it happens:
1. EURO
2. YUAN
3. AUD
Yuan will never be a trade currency given that much of Asia hate it. Inda will never use yuan for its forex reserves nor will Japan. So china even if it looses yuan, will never see yuan to reserve status. AUD is a far too illuquid currency to have any chance.
That leaves EURO which is governed by a very hawkish ECB but it lacks treasury which is now being built and implemented. EURO is already traded 48% as a reserve currency and therefore with min fuss, the new forex regime will be ushered in. It WILL happen.
Given what happens to Gold, it will crash against euro. And there is an outside chance that will have so many longs who would have dragged it to 1400 or 1500, the market will shut down and physical guys will simply not be able to monetize it. So Gold folks will keep holding it to whatever level and then see it crashing before their eyes. What happens to equity markets? Crash crash but only after a significant rally welcoming Hyperinflation.
Am a positional trader for a swiss hedge fund by profession to qualify my views but I have far too much time at hand so love to ramble esp against the wild Gold bug crowd.
<deleted>
I have gold and silver as a hedge. Will never sell it unless needed in the great reset.
If it ever went substantially lower would 2x, 3x my holdings. I think a lot of other people would as well.
The Euro will not last. If any one of the major currencies collapses, Yen, Euro, USD - they all collapse. $1 quadrillion in derivatives.
The world is over-leveraged. The end any fractional reserve lending system is mathematically certain.
And u call urself as trader joe? Cannot see a bigger mismatch between the name and thesis.
Are OPEC gonna settle in euros too?
Oh, oh Fresbee posting views w/o full disclosure?
Better double check with your boss about this!
Do you promise not to disappear as Other Gold shorts like Johnny Bravo started losing against Gold. Your logic is flawed. EURO prices gold dynamically in their balancesheet.
What makes you think Gold will go down in EURO, but Gold is going To be priced upwards in EURO. That will be physical only Price and that will be how they will try to save EURO, but even Then EURO can fail. Also so far OPEC is still asking dollar for Oil.
Gold Traders will be biggest losers. Of course paper gold can crash and as ANOTHER/FOA says, you will have your short period of fame. EURO cannot become American spendthrifters and Asian economies want that for them to export.
it would appear that you are currently a significantly inferior trader to 'the goldbugs' right now.
...i'm going to enjoy you changing your position at gold $5,000 because I may consider selling you a tiny bit there as you join the 'liquidity' on the bids.
Quantitative Evil.
h/t AG's Nightmare
that pretty much sums it up!
So Fresbee, Wanna buy my doubloons? Eagles or silver at the right here, right now price? Sorry think i'll hold for more profit...God knows it's better than a CD
I hold silver! No trading in silver. Gold yes. It is waiting for a flash crash.
just took a look at this pomo crap that happened over the past month. Results are the on the POMO days we gained a total of 7.5% and on the non POMO days lost a cumulative 1.5%. Tomorrow is the last scheduled POMO with an expected 2.5 billion, which is small for them. after that the market is going cold turkey.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aowSGxim_O8
seems so appropriate. I imagine Ben Bernanke as Tom Petty inthe song and the stock market as the dead woman, dressing it up and putting lipstick on it do fuck around with it one last time.
The FED pumpers must look at elliot wave analysis because they are pumping for all they're worth - gold price be damned. This is the cusp of a huge decline and they know it. I hear a lot of squealing rubber and see a lot of smoke, but they ain't getting very far. Any drag racer knows you only have so much traction and you must maintain it at the expense of power application for a good lauch.
FED is gunning it like a redneck going thru a mud bog. It's game over if they can't keep public confidence.......
+1
armageddon commences the first day equities are down with the USDs, which should be sometime soon by the looks of things.
Remember back when it was only the Ron Paul people who wanted to destroy fiat money?
"gunning it like a redneck going thru a mud bog."
I am seeing lots o mud painted 4x4's around here . Time to move. Redneck City Mich , south of CedarTucky
@pond
No, don't move, open a car wash with drains that can handle the extra clay and silt. Cha-elfin'-ching!
Please repeat class : QE II is a bluff. If FED WOULD be so stupid, it would immediately destroy the USD as a reserve currency. T Bonds would sell off into oblivion. QE II does not make ANY economic sense. To fight unemployment via QE II is a very SILLY thin to do. You fight unemployment via structural reforms, lower wages and repatriation of US industry back into motherland. But you DO NOT FGHT UNEMPLOYMENT via QE II. That´s horsesh1t !
I believe it may be a partial bluff, perhaps it started as just some fed jawboning, but now they have to do something. Talk about being painted in corner. The markets are up huge on the anticipation of this. I doubt it will be nearly as big as some expect, but to correctly size it to where the market is now will be tough. Err on the side of less or more?
My question, did the fed want this publicity, QE pumping up 2 trillion, or did the big banks cause this with the likes of Jan to sell into?
buy the rumor sell the news?
totally agree. QE makes zero sense with commodity inflation running 30-50% yoy and the dollar going down faster than a $5000 Zim-Ben $ Hooker.
This whole QE mania has been orchestrated - for a purpose - only to be deflated soon. Great oipportunity for the Inside Guys to unload before the year end deluge . Wanna pay 20% cap gains tax - or maybe better take it this year and pay 15%.
I thought QE 2 was a bluff too. But with all the fed heads out there talking up QE2 they almost have to at this point to maintain any credibility.
Where did you get the quaint notion that they are trying to fight unemployment?
You don't complete the eradication of the middle class by promoting employment!
Fact is: America's fucked. How in hell is anyone going to achieve an 80% reduction in the size of government AND bring manufacturing back by getting American workers to accept wages that compete with India, China, Brazil and a dozen others?
The same fate also awaits every other country with big government and disappeared manufacturing base (though prolonged, in the case of Australia, by just digging stuff up and shipping it out).
i agree that The Fed does not care about unemployment. they need to revalue higher the mortgage-backed-securities on their balance sheet come hell or high water. middle class be damned. let them eat cake.
Oh look the sp futures are up 0.36% just 0.10 from were I said it would be last night.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=d1
Chart: ES
"No."
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/es_06.html
+1
It is a surprise that even today eur/usd reacts to a fitch statement like "Ireland downgraded". I mean everyone in the investment arena now knows that the all PIIGS problem was hardly ever a drop in the ocean compared to the problems that US banks face and all PIIGS default was a mere hog wash to let some powerful funds and sovereign guys to buy into EUR/USD.
But even today the pair can react 30/40 pips to a fitch statement though earlier it used to go flat down by 150 pips after a fitch or a moody statement.
I think the guys who wanted to buy this has already bought it which is why you will see this pair completely immune to bad news from EU. The bad news from EU, I repeat is nothing compared to what US is going to throw up.
One of the funds that bought EUR/USd was mine which is how I know eur/usd drop in H1 2010 was a hog wash. It is a pair destined to unbelievable levels from here. And it will drag the chinese stock prices along with it.
Hmm - so the future will look like this:
- Asia will get massively overpriced, property prices etc. Add currency appreciation etc - wow wow wow . So Asia will continue to be crowded, over-priced and completely reliant on the kindness of strangers for water and food. Other than that wow wow - check out the skyscrapers.
-Any US wall street types that had dreams of escaping to Asia - will be stuck. US will be cheap, good water, good food , culture ( same as always). Foreigners wont be able to take advantage of cheap US assets because of draconian tax and regulations. Locks out furriners. Keeps talent locked in.
Without a military and the ability to defend yerself - I doubt the flawed Euro is destined for the heights you believe.
You really think EU does not have military might? And you do not need a military to get USD FED as it is on a self destruction mode either knowingly or unknowingly. I am just wondering how the scenario will play out ultimately. It could be Russia and China getting together to demand a rejig in forex or it could be Hyperinflation which will force the world to get EURO to price everything which can instantly bring prices under control esp Oil and Gold.
I think it will be second scenario which will play out and you do not need a millitary for that, do you?
Even a 20 year college drop out will tell Bernanke that QE is not the answer. I do not think Bernanke is an idiot. I think there is purposeful malfeasance to load money out of the US to benefit whoever and which ever funds/families (read rockfellars etc).
And to Gold bugs once again, you will see peaks and you will see troughs. The resulting forex regime will be most harsh on US citizens and then on the Gold crowd. I believe the Gold crowd will treated exactly like in the Hitler regime: "Guys who speculated against CBs and they need to be given their payback". That is why I said: "Never stand against the men who define the laws." Your chance of victory is remote and even if victorious, you cannot monetize. But Traders will make money either way.
+1
you can always monetize physical gold in any country, you say this because you are in your trader mindset. Go to thrid world countries and see how it is done.
Gold traders will be the biggest losers. Let's see, my hunch is Pompous Gold traders will be nailed on a Golden Cross. Their paper gold will make a huge fire.
the EU is getting squeezed by a stronger Euro right now. as soon as the ECB announces more 'easy money' in some form or fashion the buying of Euros will subside. China and OPEC are diversifying their portfolio. today, the Euro is the lesser of two evils between itself and the USD, same as the Yen versus the USD. of course it could all change tomorrow. in the meantime, gold will continue its ascent to be the last currency standing.
The better question is this: what will be the side effects of goosing the market, besides pounding the dollar and gunning oil.
Where does this end? Rationally, more QE signals desperation by the fed. They tossed out $1.6 trillion already and it's done nothing. How do they rationalize more of this bull shit policy?
Does QE create jobs? Does QE expand the U.S manufactoring sector? Does is raise home prices? So far the answer is no, no and no. Why more than?
We're not getting the whole picture. The fed is still papering over losses, something isn't adding up here.
It is obvious that the only thing left for the Fed is to inflate stock prices. And stock prices are not that expensive at the moment. A 100% gain stocks would do marvels for the national mood and stocks would still be cheaper than at previous mania peaks ( like 1999)
The Ultimate Geo-Strategic effect of Bennie's cations will be to isolate the US from the rest of the world. Will this be good or bad for Americans? I think good - actually.
At best all it can do at this point is a short term run up followed by another significant correction from a higher point. So instead of a drop from 1100 to 600 you might get something from 1250 to 750 or something along those lines. At some point the real world lack of consumer demand catches up with the market.
Is "some point" in late Nov? Sweet, thanks.
+1
Why does the Fed continue to use the equity markets as a litmus test for "good" policy? After building up excesses with thirty years of misguided policies, it seems to me that "proper medicine" may be disliked by Wall Street. Who cares?
We either create policies that reign in excesses or we are doomed to repeat the problems of 2008-09. As long as the Fed, Obama and Congress continue to look to the stock market/Wall Street for approval, the US will stay mired in this weak economy.
Tough love, anyone?
Definitely in favor of teaching Wall St a lesson they'll never forget (again), but you're asking their co-fellators to impart a discipline they can't even muster in themselves.
If you really want to untie this Gordian clusterf***, you'll need to start with campaign finance reform so that 3rd party candidates have a real shot at office. Then, and only then, can you pry apart the jaws of K-Street, get corporate influence the hell out of politics, and put the Fed in its place (audited with comb and microscope, subject to more congressional approval, etc).
So mired is what you get (if we're lucky).
priority one: term limits, in my opinion.
as for campaign finance reform, my thoughts are that only individuals (US Citizens) should be allowed to give to candidates, and this information should be published quarterly (such as a list in the Sunday paper).
if George Soros wishes to give directly to a candidate then everyone should know. Same goes for Rupert Murdoch, Oprah, or any others. However, donations from corporations and organizations should be prohibited. In my opinion, this would go far to reign in special interest groups.
QE easing, so-called, loose money, 0% interest rates, yep, they have saved the equity markets, and, seem to be re-inflating an equity bubble as we speak. Cash is most definitely trash. Bonds not much better than cash. In fact, some cash (like US Dollars) is devaluing rapidly. So you have to be in something that's going up, like metals, commodities, or stocks. They're flushing cash (mine included) out of the banks and retirement accounts (money markets).
QE *will* save the equity markets...for about ten days.
You can't futz with the market to this degree without eventually causing price inflation in oil (and other inedibles) which will spill over into the rest of the economy; at first blush, the Fed will be pleased with the inflation they manage to ignite, but like a child playing with matches will devolve into horror when they realize that this inflation a) won't be actual growth, b) won't create jobs (quite the opposite, in fact, as it erodes margins into dust), and c) will be difficult to stop as proceeds into stagflation ala 79-82).
Digging trenches and filling them. Digging tranches and (apparently not) filling them. Same difference.
“If monetary debasement can truly create economic recovery, why did our Founding Fathers establish, in the US Coinage Act of 1792, that any persons discovered to be deliberately debasing US money ‘shall be guilty of felony and shall be punished by death’?”
Not imprisonment, not even hard labor, but death!
Loosening monetary policy can only stimulate the economy when the cause for economic contraction is the monetary policy itself! When the causes of contraction are demographics, debt saturation, stupid and over complicated regulation, corrupt regulators and politicians, and general non-enforcement of the rule of law (antitrust, bankruptcy, etc), even more loosening does nothing but add to the problem in regards to who you're giving free money to!
these wiseguys are begging for a revolution.
_______________________________________
I am inviting you today to
Vote for Your Economy
_______________________________________
When was the last time you were given that opportunity?
We don't intend to replace the prevalent system but to expend the number of your options.
We will add a significant amount of jobs, income and investment.
This is the only election in which the law of the majority is not binding on the minority.
If you don't participate you are still be making a choice: the choice of relying exclusively on the prevalent system.
Vote Now for the Credit Free, Free Market Economy
http://post-crash.com
On September 10th at 10:00 AM EST I will post a video on that site expalining the voting process.
_______________________________________