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Guggenheim's Scott Minerd Discusses QE3... And QE4.... And QE5

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And so another frequently cited by Zero Hedge strategist, Guggenheim's Scott Minerd, steps up to the plate and makes the case that all those expecting an end to quantitative easing may well end up being disappointed (much to the joy of government darling - stocks; and more importantly the government's black horse - commodities). Minerd's speculation is based on what is glaringly obvious: the forced take down of commodity prices does nothing but provide the Chairman with the green light he so needs in order to proceed with further easing: "The case for extended low rates and possibly even QE3 grows stronger given the recent sharp declines in agriculture and energy prices. If price pressures from food and energy prove transitory, as Bernanke predicts, then inflationary expectations are likely to ease by the end of the year. A decline in inflation would certainly make the risk/reward trade-off for QE3 more attractive to the Fed chairman." Basically, the paradoxical outcome is that the lower the most "hated" commodities: crude, gold, silver drop, the higher the probability the Fed takes the step that sends them surging to new record levels. Elsewhere, Minerd once again follows our thinking: the econom is the primary catalyst for further easing (especially in light of fiscal easing being impossible under the current political breakdown): "What
would be Mr Bernanke’s motivation to endure the political fallout of
QE3? The same motivation for QE1 and QE2: namely, stimulating growth to
help employment recover. If economic growth stalls, this will become the
chairman’s primary motivation. Looking ahead, the expiry of tax cuts in
2011 and a government deficit reduction programme (likely to take
effect as early as 2012) will present real headwinds to growth." Lastly, doing a comp to that endless QE basket case demonstrates that at least from the Fed's perspective, the US has much more capacity for monetization as a percentage of GDP, to go on with LSAP for much, much longer: "The balance sheet of the Bank of Japan equals about 30 per cent of Japanese GDP. If the Fed were to hold as many assets on a relative basis, it could conduct a further $1,800bn worth of quantitative easing. That would amount to QE3, QE4 and QE5 (at the same size as QE2) just to get to where Japan is today. If US economic growth stalls, Mr Bernanke, an expert in all things deflationary, could view Japan as an imperfect but relevant precedent for further quantitative easing." And there you have it.

From Scott Minerd's FT OpEd:

There will be more monetary elixir after the end of QE2

In 1958, Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith  was looking for a term to describe certain ideas that were commonly held, intellectually accessible and yet fundamentally flawed. To define such widely spread misconceptions he wrote: “I shall refer to these ideas henceforth as the conventional wisdom.”

As an asset manager, I’ve come to view conventional wisdom as the surest path to investment underperformance. One might even amend the old Wall Street saying to read: bulls make money, bears make money, but conventional wisdom gets slaughtered. Consensus opinion is generally a sign to get on the other side of the trade.

Recently, I’ve noticed a critical mass of groupthink growing round the expiration of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programme, dubbed QE2. After tripling its balance sheet in 2½ years, the conventional wisdom is that the era of quantitative easing should now give way to the era of inflation. As a result, the foregone conclusion is that US interest rates will rise and bonds will underperform significantly.

While I acknowledge the potential for rising rates, I don’t think the expiration of QE2 is the catalyst that most believe it to be. In fact, I believe US rates should remain range-bound at historically low levels for an extended period of time. I find it surprising how the majority of market watchers, lost in the obsession with QE2’s expiration, have so quickly dismissed the possibility of QE3.

As evidence, consider the Taylor rule, an economic formula that the Fed uses to model the appropriate Fed funds target interest rate. Given the current levels of unemployment and inflation, the Taylor rule says the rate should be negative 1.65 per cent, which of course is not practical. With the Fed’s target rate already at the zero bound, this suggests that Ben Bernanke may need to take further action at some point after QE2 expires. At a minimum, it means the Fed should refrain from any rate rises until such time that unemployment drops below 7.0 per cent (from 9.0 per cent currently) or core inflation more than doubles.

The case for extended low rates and possibly even QE3 grows stronger given the recent sharp declines in agriculture and energy prices. If price pressures from food and energy prove transitory, as Bernanke predicts, then inflationary expectations are likely to ease by the end of the year. A decline in inflation would certainly make the risk/reward trade-off for QE3 more attractive to the Fed chairman.

What would be Mr Bernanke’s motivation to endure the political fallout of QE3? The same motivation for QE1 and QE2: namely, stimulating growth to help employment recover. If economic growth stalls, this will become the chairman’s primary motivation. Looking ahead, the expiry of tax cuts in 2011 and a government deficit reduction programme (likely to take effect as early as 2012) will present real headwinds to growth. Layer on top of that the fact that 2012-13 is likely to be the end of the expansionary portion of the business cycle, and what’s left is a recipe for a serious economic slowdown or possibly even another recession.

Unless, of course, the Fed serves up more of its monetary elixir, which is why I believe the end of QE2 in June is nothing more than a pause to watch what happens in the real economy. In fact, even though his rhetoric downplayed any further expansion of its balance sheet, Mr Bernanke was careful in his recent press conference not to close the door entirely on QE3.

There are fears that the balance sheet of the Fed may be too large already, but this doesn’t square with the experience of Japan. At $2,600bn, the current Fed balance sheet represents approximately 18 per cent of US gross domestic product. By comparison, the balance sheet of the Bank of Japan equals about 30 per cent of Japanese GDP. If the Fed were to hold as many assets on a relative basis, it could conduct a further $1,800bn worth of quantitative easing. That would amount to QE3, QE4 and QE5 (at the same size as QE2) just to get to where Japan is today. If US economic growth stalls, Mr Bernanke, an expert in all things deflationary, could view Japan as an imperfect but relevant precedent for further quantitative easing.

In his concluding thoughts about conventional wisdom, Dr Galbraith said: “The ultimate enemy of conventional wisdom is circumstance.” The surprise circumstance in 2011 may be lower rates as US Treasuries and fixed income securities rally in the midst of growing uncertainty. Further down the road, if price pressures moderate, employment remains slow to recover and fiscal headwinds mount, then Mr Bernanke may find a compelling reason to fire up the printing presses again. Then, just like a bad Hollywood film series, we may end up talking about a sequel to QE1 and QE2. In other words, quantitative easing isn’t dead; it may just be slumbering.

Scott Minerd is chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners

 

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Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:18 | 1290966 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

YES! BEN! Just DO IT!!

SAVE AMERICAN PEOPLE!!

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:23 | 1290976 SDRII
SDRII's picture

But Kan says the BOJ can not explicitly buy JGBs

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:25 | 1290988 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

Just curious.  Where is this "decline" in inflation going to come from again?  Producers are quick to raise, but take a long time to lower.  Just saw a note come through today - Skippy Peanut butter going up 23% on average as of next month (thanks Unilever). 

 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:27 | 1291012 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

laughable to watch crude plunge and yet gas prices stay the same or tick down a penny or two

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 11:20 | 1291543 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

The morning after the 100% fraudulent silver take down by the bankstas and Fed, I posted that it basically was an indication that QE3 is coming.  I still believe so.

Basically, why the need to take down commodities so hard if QE3 were not going to pass, because surely everyone can see that if no QE3 were coming, commod's and stocks would naturally and sharply correct.

But here we have ponzinomics at work.  Ben Bernanke is a 100% manipulative, lying, fraud.  They took down silver, instituted unprecedented margin hikes in all areas, to give them the leg room to print and lie and print and lie.....

It's all good 'till she blows up.  And it will.  When it does, I'd like to see how he squirms to protect his "legacy", whatever that illusionary farce may be in his mind.

 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 12:56 | 1292101 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Legacy?  He better be squirming to protect his damn neck from the noose he surely will be facing.  Right alongside him will be a slew of banstas, politicians, and regulators. 

OT:  Just watched this excellent video.

 

A Mises Media Classic: Money, Banking and the Federal Reserve

Wednesday, May 18, 2011 – by Mises Institute

Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson understood "The Monster". But to most Americans today, Federal Reserve is just a name on the dollar bill. They have no idea of what the central bank does to the economy, or to their own economic lives; of how and why it was founded and operates; or of the sound money and banking that could end the statism, inflation, and business cycles that the Fed generates.

Dedicated to Murray N. Rothbard, steeped in American history and Austrian economics, and featuring Ron Paul, Joseph Salerno, Hans-Hermann Hoppe, and Lew Rockwell, this extraordinary new film is the clearest, most compelling explanation ever offered of the Fed, and why curbing it must be our first priority.

Alan Greenspan is not, we're told, happy about this 42-minute blockbuster. Watch it, and you'll understand why. This is economics and history as they are meant to be: fascinating, informative, and motivating. This movie could change America.

http://www.thedailybell.com/2326/A-Mises-Media-Classic-Money-Banking-and-the-Federal-Reserve.html

 

 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 18:41 | 1293704 Pete15
Pete15's picture

fuck thats genus love Zero Hedge!! (no sarcasm)

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:27 | 1291015 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

You confuse reality with perception. Haven't you been watching enough msm?

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:55 | 1291443 Attitude_Check
Attitude_Check's picture

Remember food price rises "don't count" as official inflation!

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:23 | 1290995 alexwest
alexwest's picture

# could view Japan as an imperfect but relevant precedent for further #quantitative easing.

IT DIDNT FUCKIGN WORK IN JAPAN, WHY FUCK DO YOU EXPECT TO WORK IN USA?

WHAT A FUCKED MORON... he seems need a place to chill.. i think
there's free cell next to DSK..

alx

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:20 | 1291260 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

no shit, using japan as a fucking guide post is dumb, japan is his fucking monetary mentor, lmao

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:27 | 1291000 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

"What would be Mr Bernanke’s motivation to endure the political fallout of QE3? The same motivation for QE1 and QE2: namely, stimulating growth to help employment recover."

except that more and more people are waking up to the reality that the ponzi does not help them.  i think the experts who keep preaching more QE is a slam dunk may be the ones in for a surprise.  QE has not helped employment recover.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:28 | 1291002 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

PM's are pricing in an immediate end to QE2.

LNKD, well, that's another story.  Looking very strong.

Maybe we should see which stock closes higher by the end of the year:

Newmont Mining, or LNKD???

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:49 | 1291099 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

LNKD will act as GM did, just with a shorter timeframe.  GM levitates by gov't mandate.  LNKD will go up 50% then fall like a rock.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:25 | 1291268 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

was looking to purchase some put options for LNKD this morning but couldn't find any

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:25 | 1291283 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well Robo maybe we should hear YOUR position youve taken in these cherry picked equities youre preening over! How many shares/price of LNKD do you have?

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:29 | 1291006 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Succinct.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:32 | 1291018 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

I look forward to a future post (2012) about how Kermit the Frog, The Ruler, and a Straight line predicted S&P 2800 (by 2013).

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:32 | 1291019 reload
reload's picture

The same motivation for QE1 and QE2: namely, stimulating growth to help employment recover.

 

hahaha.

 

probably right though in that QE to infinity/destruction is still the agenda - there is no plan B. The last fork in the road has been passed. 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:46 | 1291098 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

This is all BS, when EVERYONE has already factored in QE 25 as a done deal, Im betting we dont see any more of this crap we'll see nation wrecking events soon instead. 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:33 | 1291028 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

Tyler, with the utmost respect, there is only 1 reason for QE past and future. The fiscal abdication of responsibility by this and previous administrations. Way too much of your time (and other commentators) look at the data de jour instead of realizing what QE achieves.... negative rates to rob savers + a buyer for no longer bid treasury paper. The 'Economy' has nothing to do with it because the economy is transitory.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:38 | 1291049 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Hey BWD good to see you here Hangin' 10.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:36 | 1291044 Boston
Boston's picture

Unless, of course, the Fed serves up more of its monetary elixir, which is why I believe the end of QE2 in June is nothing more than a pause to watch what happens in the real economy.

Exactly.  The point is that the Fed will at least PAUSE.  And during this pause, the most markets will have a heart attack, except for ONE market---the US Treasuries, which could rally hard right up until Bernanke drops the QE3 hint.

Look for the 10 year T-note to got sub-3.0% by July.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:52 | 1291109 kito
kito's picture

just not true. markets are forward looking. end of qe is next month, fed will have finished up its puchases 200 billion under, and markets have shrugged it off. the drop, which we all thought was happening last week, didnt happen.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:06 | 1291172 Boston
Boston's picture

QE1 ended March 31, 2010, and the shit hit the fan in late April and early May (eg Flash Crash).

So we need to wait a bit more.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:58 | 1291458 Attitude_Check
Attitude_Check's picture

The FED will use the economic "slow-down" due to a "pause" of QE and all the dust-up over debt-ceiling issues to play-out this summer.  Then use the bad numbers to justify a direct QE 3 this fall.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:37 | 1291061 trainrobbery
trainrobbery's picture

At some point the name "QE#" will become unpopular because people will relize that it just doesn't work.  I think they will soon call it, "Ben's pathway to Freedom" or something like that.  Then he will run for President so that he can increase stimulus...First Fed Chairman/President of the United States!  Hail the king...

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:50 | 1291104 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

How about "Patriot Easing"!

 

Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:41 | 1291063 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Get the thesis.  Think it's sound, and given that Fed (knuckle) heads love the "wealth effect", I think that there is little chance they risk cashing the equity markets.  Just look at the ES margin requiements in relation to commodities.  There will be information that trickles out (already has) that Fed will be very active with other mechanims that keep the cash flowing.

On another point, I think your typo "econom" has real potential as a descriptive title for pundits who discuss economics without being economists.

"Liesman, CNBC's resident econom"

"Cavuto, Fox's econom"

 

 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:22 | 1291242 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

if we study the econom to learn about human behavior [ourselves] thru experiment, then the conventional wisdom would seem to indicate that we aren't learning much, at all. or, we keep changing, and wrecking the experiments, no matter what.

when we answer a poll or a survey, our conventional anarchy causes us to reject any norm as bias.

so, people now invariably lie on polls and surveys.

we want to beat the goobermint to the falsehoods.

this leads to what we have now---advanced galbraithian econom miZ-be-havin.

slewie's corollary states that if we were to just stop trying to avoid pain, suffering, and death, the conventional wisdom regarding econom downturns would give our investments a chance to perform more teleologically.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:40 | 1291069 Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

Modelling the US future on Japan is like comparing yourself to Hitler and saying you're a good person...

 

WTF mate!

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:42 | 1291076 Arius
Arius's picture

the rise in PMs might reflect other issues such as geopolitics, unstability, the role of PM as monetary instruments...which means the case for more QE can be made even in environment of rising PMs...

in reality - at the end, i suppose QE to infinity is needed to buy all the paper, which is irrelevant to how one justifies it existence and continuation...i am just throwing some ideas on how to justify it... 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:43 | 1291082 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Wow, to say that our Fed should act more like BOJ is rather hilarious.  I guess Mr. Minderd would like us to have three decades (with still no end in sight) of stagflation with periods of deflation.  In reality I would say the BOJ is a good example of how not to act.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:44 | 1291091 SilverDoctors
SilverDoctors's picture

This is what will result from QE3, 4, 5, ^n..

Living Through a Currency Devaluation

http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/05/living-through-currency-devalu...

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:51 | 1291115 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

 

∫∫QEx^(y) dydx

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:45 | 1291092 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

I think the ULTIMATE battle is in the FX kingdom......their Ultimate GOAL is to devalue all the currencies....so that they can bring in their OWN one world currency ....and the people holding these worthless shits of paper will become so desperate that they will do anything commanded by the PTBs.....so QE to infinity looks more th case...

 

 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:47 | 1291103 Fortunes Favor
Fortunes Favor's picture

The QE3 debate is just a head fake. Here is the set up for Fed Three Card Monty come June @ http://seekingalpha.com/article/270339-debate-surrounding-end-of-qe2-is-a-head-fake

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:54 | 1291120 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Did any of these experts now factoring in QE 3,4,5 etc ever guess there would be a QE1? No, none of em did. Theyll all be snatched upside down in a trap real soon. World events are about to spin out of control.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:50 | 1291113 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I dont buy it, the perpetual QE done deal nonsense. Looking at other things, we're about to see waves of false flag attacks, weather disasters, etc all over the country markets will just be shut down and the doors to the casino will be locked.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:54 | 1291132 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

You don't think all those "events" you mention will bring about more magical mystery money?

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:22 | 1291269 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No, people will just be separated from their paper 'assets'.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:51 | 1291118 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Another new high for AXP and COF.

Chris Whalen must be pulling his hair out.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:55 | 1291123 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Go to hell troll.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:58 | 1291135 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Another new high for Starbucks.

Hard to be bearish when consumer stocks keep making new highs.

I wonder how Gerald Celente feels.  Probably getting even angrier.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:23 | 1291259 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Go to hell troll.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 11:04 | 1291485 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Every day the Bernanke Buck is devalued... it takes more Bernanke Bucks to buy a share of Starbucks or a gallon of gas...

Gerald Celente laughs at twats like you that cannot distinguish that obvious fact...

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:00 | 1291155 Seacap81
Seacap81's picture

It is now a huge mistake for "conventional wisdom" to believe all upward pressure on grains is transitory and only a result of QE,.....we now have strong fundamental reasons to see grains moving higher.  I can only imagine the gasoline thrown on this fire being QE3.  Lookout!!! 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:04 | 1291164 youngman
youngman's picture

Philly Fed just crashed...more on unemployment..more on Foodstamps...billions for Egypt and Lybia....someone has to print the cash...the question is when will it break....what moment or incident will send the dollar crashing...and hyperinflation in full speed....people are playing Lynkdin today...playing is the key word...as Rome burns...it is surreal...

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:06 | 1291189 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

+100

 

You nailed it, man.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:22 | 1291255 Imminent Collapse
Imminent Collapse's picture

+1 youngman. 

One other thing - the financial debacle is racing to be the first collapse, but any number of other things could expode first.  We teeter on the brink.

Not to worry, though.  Nothing changes until you hit the wall.  Then everything does. 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:10 | 1291210 bmwm395
bmwm395's picture

I have to say that everything I'm seeing/reading. The conventional wisdom is that, QE2 ends, markets stumble. Ben steps in with QE3 to save the day.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:11 | 1291212 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Oil 100, Gold 1500, Silver 35

This is a big commodity takedown to justify QE3???

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:21 | 1291266 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'The epic commodities crash of 2011'...LULZ.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:29 | 1291299 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Sharp declines in Ag prices?  Yesterday I went into Slaveway for a few things for dinner and saw that hamburger was marked up to $5.49 a pound, I bought New York steaks for that a year ago (on sale in a family pack but still).  I would like to know how a loaf of bread containing 10 cents worth of wheat a year and a half ago and which now has 19 cents worth of wheat had to go up by more than a dollar!  This has WAYYYYY less to do with commodity prices than it does simple gouging.  I am 53 and I have noted that every single time the words "inflation expectations" have been uttered prices rise dramatically and never ever fall back to where they were. 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:42 | 1291389 Catullus
Catullus's picture

I don't think $1.8 trillion will get through the next election cycle. They're discussing that right now more than anything. They can't have another round of pause and scratch right before the election. Need more. The fed should either play for a small QE3 and then larger QE4 or just a big QE3. Either way, they're running at negative $130billion a month on the deficit. They should be modeling the deterioration in SSTF now.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:46 | 1291406 sgorem
sgorem's picture

"ON A TRANSITORY TIMELINE THE SURVIVAL RATE FOR EVERYONE DROPS TO ZERO".

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 11:03 | 1291464 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, the end of the beginning."

Bennie "Churchill" Bernank
Explaining QE, 1st Fed Press Conference

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 11:01 | 1291473 aerial view
aerial view's picture

Mr. Minerd makes some good points. Big Ben has already clearly shown that he has no qualms about manipulating ALL markets in order to continue his plan of QE until his masters, the Banks and other multinationals recover. A gradual increase in inflation as well as a gradual decrease in the dollar does not concern him as he will brush it off as "transitory". If he miscalculates, the dollar will crash and a new currency will appear sooner rather than later. The days of America as a wealthy country are numbered at least for 99.9% of us.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 11:05 | 1291488 Quackking
Quackking's picture

Meanwhile, from the "Bubble? What bubble?" file: http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2011/05/is-the-worlds-most-expensive-photos-va...

$US3.89M No, this is *not* a misprint. On the other hand theose bonus bucks have to be parked someplace, right?

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 12:36 | 1291982 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

While I agree with his thoughts on 'conventional wisdom' I don't find Japan comparable to the US. Certainly if your goal was to go nowhere for twenty years sure, use Japan as a touchstone. Somehow I don't think it'll play out the same here in the US.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 12:56 | 1292099 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

DP

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 21:28 | 1294135 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Good article, illustrating exactly why The Bernank is just an educated idiot, unable to 'think outside the box' (an overused term, generally by people who think they are, but in actual fact aren't - who knows, I may even be one myself?).

DavidC

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