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Hahn Investment On The Hale Bopp Cult And Other Contrarian Predictions

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While Wilfred Hahn's latest Global Spin has some original ideas, the bulk of its reads like the contrarian's guide to the universe, whereby he takes every prevailing "wisdom" theory and disputes it, simply because, well, that's the contrarian thing to do. Which is great, but that in itself does not make conventional wisdom wrong. In fact, flipping a thesis on its head with a less than convincing counterargument only underscores the possibility, however remote, that the crowd may in fact be right. Anyway, Hahn's latest spiel is to compare 5 supposedly accepted views and "Hale Bopp" them or attempt to expose them for the fallacies they are (for those seeking extended contrarian arguments, we urge readers to refer themselves to many of the other true skeptics so frequently highlighted on Zero Hedge). His 5 peeves are: i) China will continue to boom; ii) Emerging markets forever, iii) The world will run out of commodities; iv) An inflationary blow-off is surely underway, and v) The US dollar will fall to oblivion. While we certainly agree with Hahn's prevailing view that a "growth slowdown is underway" we do hope that in his next quarterly review he will take the time to validate and justify why any of the above will in fact not occur instead of merely using the presented strawman arguments which come out of the generic deflationist's handbook.

Complete May 30 note (pdf)

GS-2011-06_WJH

h/t Daniel

 

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Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:08 | 1324310 akak
akak's picture

Hahn being a mindless contrarian simply for contrarianism's sake is bad enough, but being gullible and/or disingenuous enough to give any serious credence to the flat-earth deflationary hypothesis (and disinformational propaganda campaign currently so beloved by central bankster shills and status-quo defenders), in addition, was enough for me to strike this man off the list of honest, intelligent and credible economic and monetary analysts and commentators.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:29 | 1324385 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Mish gonna come eff you up holmes.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:38 | 1324407 akak
akak's picture

While dodging the deadly bullets of inflation and the red-hot shrapnel of potential hyperinflation, I doubt I will even take notice of being pummeled by Mish with his light-as-air deflationary feather pillows.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:09 | 1324454 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I can see the "Mishion Accomplished" banner being unfurled already.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:35 | 1324499 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

sounds like a turn on.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 04:14 | 1324649 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Is there a trend going on??

Excerpt from msnbc.com:

A former chairman of one of Egypt's major banks was arrested Monday on charges of sexually abusing a maid at a Manhattan hotel, just weeks after the arrest of former International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn on similar allegations, police said.

 

Mahmoud Abdel Salam Omar is accused of sexually abusing the maid at The Pierre, a luxurious hotel near Central Park and Fifth Avenue on the Upper East Side, police said.

 

The maid was called to Omar's room Sunday night to drop off tissues, police said. But once inside the 74-year-old's room, police said Omar would not let her leave and touched her inappropriately. The encounter was not reported until Monday, police said.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:40 | 1324412 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

akak my virtual friend.  What great timing for this article, as I earlier today put up an article named the "Tinfoil Hat Brigade".  Go and check it out at my blog!

So far 100 ZH-ers have jumped through the hoops and now can look at their leisure.  100 ZH-ers can't be wrong.

Any ZeroHedge people can send me a gmail with an assurance that you will play nice and I will let you in too!  

I put out a special call to ZH member tmosley as to how one can comment via Open ID (or anyone who knows how to do this, my blog is a Blogspot / Blogger blog).  Please mail me with instructions or please comment at my new article (where I address this issue), thank you.  Many of my readers are having trouble trying to comment even when they have a gmail account.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:49 | 1324422 akak
akak's picture

Thanks DoChen --- I will try it again.

I just didn't want to have to go through the rigamarole of setting up some whole new account somewhere if I could possibly avoid it.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:14 | 1324458 tmosley
tmosley's picture

OpenID is surprisingly easy to use.  If it had been at the top of the posting options, I would have started posting comments on blogspot blogs long ago.

Just google "OpenID", and you should be able to find a list of compatible pre-existing logins, which most people probably already have.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:16 | 1324465 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

PLEASE, PLEASE send me those (detailed) instructions via email or Comments at my blog!!!  Details would be even better...  I could not figure out how to comment to fofoa.blogspot.com via ANYTHING (inc. Open ID) before I switched from AOL to gmail.

Uhh, it is after midnight and the Bearing is a little drunk...

Thanks tmosley!  And best to you and yours!

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:39 | 1324503 tmosley
tmosley's picture

DoChen:  I posted it to your blog a couple of times, but it appears to be eating my comments.  They show up at first, but when I go back to the main page, they are gone, and remain gone when I click back into the individual article.

I'll send it by email.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 01:14 | 1324539 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

THANKS!  FOFOA himself has recently had 140 comments (he is Blogger as well) eaten by Blogger (from his costata silver article) before his article "Honest Money".

You like silver, yes?  At some point soon, I will have a Gold vs. Silver article.  Probably I will allow "Fight Club Rulz".

Please confirm my understanding that you are "more pro-silver than gold".  In maybe a week I would like to have a no holds barred session on silver vs. gold wealth preservation / make more money post.

I did have a VERY REASONABLE case for silver, from a commentor that "has no heirs" as to why he chooses silver.  I cannot fault his case.  Gold is for generations of sitting still, but his case of hte SHORT TERM re silver I had not seen before.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 08:37 | 1324835 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I like silver more than gold until supply and demand even out following a COMEX collapse and an industrial user panic accumulation.  Silver will overshoot in a blow off top, perhaps breaching parity by multiples.  After that price rise, the panic will subside, and silver will fall relative to gold.  At that point, I will own a lot more gold.

I am a young person, and able, and as such, I can afford to speculate.  I like to treat silver and gold like "normal" people treat stocks and bonds, respectively.  Silver is more speculative, as you are betting on one of many factors driving the price higher.  But gold is money, and will do as well or better than silver during a hyperinflation.  It is likely that we will go back on some sort of gold standard, since there is a lot of gold floating around.  The demand for gold based on its currency status will indeed skyrocket its value to $55,000 and beyond in 2011 dollars.  I just don't think it will happen before this silver stuff hits the fan.  I have a small position in gold just in case, but I generally prefer to buy what the troll brigade is trying to get me to sell, and they have shifted focus entirely from gold to silver.

You will not do poorly in ANY circumstance long term (5+years) by holding either metal.  They will drag each other up.  It just depends on who is in the driver's seat.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:20 | 1324468 akak
akak's picture

Muchisimas gracias, mi amigo!

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 03:05 | 1324617 New Normalist
New Normalist's picture

What is your gmail handle?

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 22:59 | 1324312 zen0
zen0's picture

This is too gay.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:00 | 1324315 Coke and Hookers
Coke and Hookers's picture

There's a lot of thoughtcrime crammed into that pdf. And to make things worse, there's some common sense there too. THIS MAN MUST BE STOPPED!

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:00 | 1324316 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Mind-blowing decline in yield on the 6mo. treasury bill:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:08 | 1324330 Ricky Roma
Ricky Roma's picture

I  guess he is long USD and 30TYS and short everything else....

 

Nice pair trade...

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:23 | 1324370 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Funny... Probably long Ammo and Weapons manufacturing...

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:11 | 1324335 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

You'd think after the buy the dip success 20 times this year the crash talk would cease but the bears keep harping gloom and doom every day.  Wonder how many more times the "buy the dip" proves to be a success when the bears finally throw in the towel.

With the 10-yr. yield at 3%, its like leaving a bank vault open and saying take what you want.   Every short fund has been devastated the last 10 yrs despite to monster bear markets because every correction is viewed as if a huge crash was right around the corner.  Sure, some funds made their year in 2008 but now they have given it all back by being waterboarded and tortured with constant 5% and 10% losses on short trades the last 2 years despite the most horrid economic news rolling out every day.

All I can say is that it must be tough and demoralizing being a bear these days, guys like Gerald Celente must be ready to lose it completely.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:16 | 1324350 Ricky Roma
Ricky Roma's picture

I think we are all ready to lose it.  We live in the Matrix and it is Ground Hogs Day, (the movie) everyday.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:17 | 1324354 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Just lie back and think about something pleasant like reflexivity.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:27 | 1324379 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

George Soros doesn't do it for most people, methinks.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 05:18 | 1324677 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

Was that a black cat, again?

Don't worry, it must be a "deja vú".

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:23 | 1324373 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

RobotTwat - Post a 12 year chart of U.S. indexes, list the equities that went down 75%, 90% or to $0, consider how many times the exchanges were 're-jiggered' replacing stocks that were de-listed or went belly up with fresh honey pots, and then go dunk your bulbous head containing yahoo-finance-chat-room shit for brains in your nearest toilet bowl and flush.

The wash, rinse & repeat stock Ponzi Scheme is transparent now and you should run along and play with your Wii before your milk & cookies nightcap.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 01:17 | 1324540 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

And maybe a gold and silver chart more then 48 hours long?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 09:20 | 1324936 Trillax
Trillax's picture

"The wash, rinse & repeat stock Ponzi Scheme is transparent now and you should run along and play with your Wii before your milk & cookies nightcap."

LOL Truth. +100. I owe you a beer of your choice anytime for that comment. ;)

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:26 | 1324376 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"shhh. quiet.  they're masturbating again."

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:58 | 1324432 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

... Hale Bopp, naah, Mr. Hahn meant ''Hail Bop'' (extends fascist salute) econominc debt slaves produces nothing, they just get Madoff. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFq4E9XTueY

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:42 | 1324501 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

they did just bag Raj Rajarotten (sp?)--he's a billionaire "and will die in jail."  the so called "hapless SEC" is tapping phone lines now as well.  Keep taking on "the goobermint" Wall Street with your "envious gaze fixed upon the Goldman Sachs." 

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:25 | 1324381 zen0
zen0's picture

I like your post because it wasn't just chart goosh, but had some meat, like  the one before.

 

And you seem to have nice tits.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:41 | 1324408 knowless
knowless's picture

robo, i've only been around for 2 months, but it wasn't until the last few days when you started in on the naritives instead of the STOCKSIGN UP LOLz..

 

what gives? what changed that you decided to start adding emotion to your posts?

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:43 | 1324411 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Gerald Celente? That's your bear? How much AUM does he have?

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:08 | 1324339 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Since there is no bad news anymore, now is probably a good time for the squid to float some Tepco bonds.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:30 | 1324386 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I like where you're going with this.  key word:  "float" in same sentence as word "squid" no less.  methinks he's "inked the phuck outta there" though.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:18 | 1324358 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Basically all bad news is laughed off and shucked off as a complete joke.  I've never seen a tape buck off so much bad news that comes out daily.  It is plain and simple.  You cannot underestimate the power of free money like 3 - mo. and 6- mo. T-Bills, it is just too enticing to speculators who can borrow 4:1 with Interactive Brokers at 1.2% all day long.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:25 | 1324383 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

It's a postmodern market.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 09:08 | 1324900 rocker
rocker's picture

Postmodern market is one based on bad news is good for the markets. Oil goes up.  Why?

Bad news means the FED and QE3,4,5, are inevitable.  Good news means not.  Think about it. Go against the herd.

 If the jobs numbers are great Friday, we go down.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:26 | 1324481 akak
akak's picture

(yawn)

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 06:33 | 1324705 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

John Law Lives

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:19 | 1324361 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I know the Hahn family. West coast style.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:36 | 1324397 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I've got my Nike's (tm-- to Greece) on.  Let there be Zeus(tm) and Apollo(tm) to take me away!  Now commence a Representative Democratic moment (pay royalties in sum of $_____ to Athens with check made out to Papindraieu (sp,tm, dogcatcher) and "throw back the ouzo" and "smash that crystal" baby.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:54 | 1324433 Dolemite
Dolemite's picture

Fade this last gasp in stocks and Euro

Gold going up

http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:10 | 1324452 sellstop
sellstop's picture

Gasoline down 39 cents at a local station over the last two weeks....

gh

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:13 | 1324456 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

Robot Trader is spot on...I know because I have been one of those bears. And yes, I made alot in 08/09 and yes I have lost alot in the last two years. Actually, for the very first time last week, I BTFD!! (S&P at 1307). Funny thing though, I felt as nervous as hell being long! lol..what an eejit I am sometimes!. Anyway, I nervously held the thing til 1325 then turned the position short. Guess what, I made on the long and have been stopped out today on the short...LOL! anyway : the song remains the same: BTFD!! (me?, I am stepping to one side for a while while I collect objectivity.  Good luck all

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:29 | 1324484 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Robot Trader is spot on! I'm going to use that tomorrow, (when I finish my garden).

 

                     YEN CROSS.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:40 | 1324507 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"there's a reason why our numbers are small.  all the others are dead."

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 01:21 | 1324545 Arch Duke Ferdinand
Arch Duke Ferdinand's picture

Dancing Will Get You Arrested in the U. S. A.

Unf*ckingbelievable...

http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/05/dancing-will-...

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 02:00 | 1324574 Jasper M
Jasper M's picture

Yyyyeah . . . 'cause all to Tyler's predictions and statements are Models of rigor!

It just peeves him to see his pet theories to be so deconstructed. Here's a tip, Tyler – if you hate being shown wrong, then try not being wrong. Or not. I can understand if the thrill of promptly and loudly embracing a particularly colorful and popular mythology. Just be prepared to the embarrassment later. You do remember what embarrassment is, don't you?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 02:08 | 1324581 Orly
Orly's picture

I didn't understand why it was even posted if it weren't a legitimate argument.  It is said in the introduction that it was weak, thin and only gave strawman arguments.

I was hoping we would be able to decide for ourselves once having been given the information.  It would be helpful if we weren't told in advance what we should believe or disbelieve.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:01 | 1324619 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

How refreshingly unrefreshing a read that was, with or without phenobarbital.

Mark Twain's quote at the beginning is about all that was really needed.

The summary conclusions are worth a look-see.

However, once again stagflation has not been mentioned, only the teeter totter of deflation versus inflation.  Hyperinflation, stagflation, and just plain collapse are possible.

Modern economic writers often write as though Rome never fell, or that Nations, states, and/or their colonines have not come and gone quite readily in the past 100-200 years (not to mention their world power and currency status).

 

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 04:09 | 1324647 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Hahn seems to suffer from a rather selective form of Contrarian's Syndrome.  If he wanted to be a real man and to take on every prevailing "wisdom" he wouldn't be lowering risk exposure by moving from equities to debt. 

However, a respite from the echo chamber is often beneficial to clearing one's mind and better focusing on the tasks at hand.  The specific tone of the noise inside vs outside the echo chamber is irrelevant, as is the "truth" of the prevailing vs contrarian assessment of the future.  

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 04:15 | 1324650 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

TSA trolling fuck your airline industry sites.

http://wewontfly.com/homeland-security-trolling-we-wont-fly-blog

Project Bluebeam test marketed on 4/20.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3m8UNKD2RQM

 

 

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 04:46 | 1324665 Orly
Orly's picture

Seemed to be a hit.  The video moved around so much, it was difficult to see what was happening exactly.  For a minute, it looked like she was break dancing.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 05:46 | 1324675 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Don't blame me and my brother for Uncle Wilfred....we like to think we're from the Otto Hahn (Noble Prize Chemistry 1944) branch of the family tree ! Yee Gods ! We need a writer's clinic for all these financial writers....they're awful wordy ! Remember, "Soul is the brevity of wit !"....Monedas 2011 http://trololololololololololo.com/

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 05:48 | 1324692 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

and wit is educated insolence. 

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 07:07 | 1324715 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Yeah ? In Monedas' case "playful impertinence" with brutally honest undertones ! http://trololololololololololo.com/

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 09:14 | 1324920 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

There is a lot to be insolent about.  Far better to go about it with and capable and educated mind then what passes for Aristotelian logic in the minds of the Recovery Summer Kool-Aid crowd.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:31 | 1325404 Monedas
Monedas's picture

I'm just a peasant hoarder like Silas Marner ! Normally investment money is parked in stocks and bonds....right ? With interest rates so low who wants to park their money in bonds ? With interest rates so low....there is cheap money to speculate in stocks ? That's my Greek logic for why stocks grind on ! Look at the bright side....finally some of the idiots aren't buying stupid fiat bonds anymore ? Next step stocks, PMs ? Monedas 2011 My last Summer of Recovery was spent at AA ! Pass the Kool Aid please ? http://trololololololololololo.com/

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 12:10 | 1325616 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The schizophrenic Victorian marriage of the Puritans & the Libertines always pains me to endure, even more than http://trololololololololololo.com/.  I prefer Robert Browning to Eliot, but my preference for Browning is form over substance.  If in the mood to juggle a Victorian hot potato I might pick up Carlyle, since he would call Krugman a recipient of the lowest dismal science honor.  I'll suffer a bumper of St. Ides before Kool Aid any summer day - actually Feldschlösschen hour just kicked off - so I must be off.  Cheers.       

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 07:24 | 1324710 Monedas
Monedas's picture

The Encyclopedia for American Loons is funny ! Except there are no leftist loons ? Where's Bill Press and Joe Biden and Hillary ? Leftist loons are in postions of power ! Hmmmm ?  Monedas 2011 If your trade is lying....your stage is the leftist media !

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