Hahn Investment On The Hale Bopp Cult And Other Contrarian Predictions
While Wilfred Hahn's latest Global Spin has some original ideas, the bulk of its reads like the contrarian's guide to the universe, whereby he takes every prevailing "wisdom" theory and disputes it, simply because, well, that's the contrarian thing to do. Which is great, but that in itself does not make conventional wisdom wrong. In fact, flipping a thesis on its head with a less than convincing counterargument only underscores the possibility, however remote, that the crowd may in fact be right. Anyway, Hahn's latest spiel is to compare 5 supposedly accepted views and "Hale Bopp" them or attempt to expose them for the fallacies they are (for those seeking extended contrarian arguments, we urge readers to refer themselves to many of the other true skeptics so frequently highlighted on Zero Hedge). His 5 peeves are: i) China will continue to boom; ii) Emerging markets forever, iii) The world will run out of commodities; iv) An inflationary blow-off is surely underway, and v) The US dollar will fall to oblivion. While we certainly agree with Hahn's prevailing view that a "growth slowdown is underway" we do hope that in his next quarterly review he will take the time to validate and justify why any of the above will in fact not occur instead of merely using the presented strawman arguments which come out of the generic deflationist's handbook.
Complete May 30 note (pdf)
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