This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Halloween/"1929 Crash" Anniversary Thoughts From Art Cashin
Via UBS Financial Services:
Assets Go Their Merry Way Yet Again – The U.S. dollar got dinged pretty hard, Thursday, as confusion about the scope and efficacy of QE2 continued to bubble. The reaction to the dollar dip among other asset classes was anything but uniform. Gold went up but stocks went down. Treasuries rallied but oil was flat to soft.
It didn’t start out in that confusing fashion. At the opening, stocks were firm responding to the weak dollar, a dip in initial claims and some decent earnings reports.
The opening rally took the S&P straight into the 1188/1191 resistance band. Ten minutes into trading, the S&P hit 1189.53 and stopped dead. Bids began to disappear and stocks began to sell off. The selling accelerated after 10:00 with stocks quickly and sharply moving into negative territory.
Stocks stayed in negative territory from early morning into late afternoon.
In the final 90 minutes, the techs got back into mild plus territory but the Dow never quite made it.
Volume dipped, which hinted that markets may have turned cautious and indecisive in front of next week’s election and FOMC meeting. We’ll know better if the same wishy-washy action continues today.
Ghoulies And Ghosties And Tax Sales That Go Bump In The Night – Sunday is Halloween and that means next week the “sell in May and go away” cycle is replaced by its bullish opposite.
Traders, however, will also note that it marks the beginning of a new tax sale fiscal year for mutual funds. Traditionally, trading profits taken by mutual funds before Halloween result in a taxable event for the fund holder in the same year. Profits taken after Halloween are not taxed until the following year.
So, are mutual funds sitting on a batch of profit-taking sales starting next week? There may be more to think about than elections and QE2.
Speculating On Terror – In the days after the 9/11 attacks, there was much speculation around the U.S. as to whether there would be another “event”. What shape would it take? When might it occur? One of the consequences was the “Halloween note” rumor.
A story swept the nation that a young lady had been dating a young man from Saudi Arabia. On the afternoon of 9/11, she reportedly returned to their apartment to find the young man, and his belongings gone. The only thing she found was a note.
Supposedly, the note expressed his love, said he could not explain what was going on and said they might not meet again. But, because he loved her, he begged that she not go out in public on Halloween. The story of the note went viral and swept the nation via email.
At the time, we pointed out the long history of such stories in fearful societies. By signaling out a specific date – Halloween – it removed the “randomness” of the potential threat. If you believed the story, you would be safe until Halloween. And, if you stayed home, you’d be safe – even then.
According to the buzz we’re hearing, a new speculation on terror may be evolving. We suspect that the seed may come from warnings from the authorities that a future attack might be “Mumbai style”. That reintroduces a sense of randomness. You’re not safe by staying out of airports or tall buildings. You’re not sure what will be safe.
Apparently, folks are trying to address the Mumbai style randomness by finding an anchor or a signal. The speculation has seized on the botched car bombing in Times Square. It has been merged into a new theory that car bombings or car fires will be used a diversion. They can attract large crowds – fire, police, press and the curious. The large crowds would be vulnerable targets.
A second version suggests the car bombs are to divert authorities and leave other targets vulnerable. They even have a Halloween aspect – but Halloween is too near. So, since the first was on 9/11 – how about 11/9. And you thought you had to go to school to study creative writing. Happy Halloween!
Cocktail Napkin Charting – As noted above, the napkins were spot on again yesterday as the 1188/1191 resistance band for the S&P was a virtual brick wall for the opening rally.
The recent narrow closing range on the indices and some minor internal divergences suggest a significant breakout move is at hand. As usual, the direction is not totally clear. Traders assume the move may wait for next week’s key event.
For today, napkins see resistance at 1188/1191 followed by 1197/1200 and then 1207/1210. Support remains at 1170/1173 with fallbacks at 1162/1165 and the critical 1156/1159.
And the usual history lesson
EDITOR’S NOTE - SINCE THE MEDIA IS AWASH WITH ANNIVERSARY OF “THE ’29 CRASH” SPECIALS, WE’LL SKIP THE TOPIC
On this day (+2) in (approx.) 823 B.C., the most inventive, charming and clever people ever to grace God's green earth came up with yet another ingenious idea. They were, of course, the Irish (at this time A/K/A the Celts). Being bright they did not labor upon the obvious. So they let somebody else invent fire, the wheel, iron, astronomy, writing, calendars, etc. These they figured they could copy - - and boy did they. These clever folks, well, they tended to save their strength for what was really important.
By this stratagem, just a 1000 years earlier, while pagan types were grappling with such mediocrity as pyramids, irrigation and geometry, the Celts had learned to distill grain. This miracle medicinal cure (which would maintain mankind for over 3000 years) they called Usquebah. The amazed and very indebted rest of the world mis-translated the name as "whiskey".
So for a millennia these wise and whiskey-witty folk enjoyed good health and good fellowship. Then as this particular day approached (circa 823 B.C.), possible gender conflict arose. The women began expecting the men to hang out close to the cave as the evening came earlier each fall. If civilization were to progress this would never do!
So the Celtic elders came up with the second great invention. They called it "Samhain" or end of summer. They explained to the women that as the season changed, ghosts, goblins and evil spirits came forth to threaten all humans. In order to protect the women and children, the men folk selflessly would have to put on old clothes, take some jugs of the magic Usquebah (possible snake bite you know) and go into the hills and light fires.
For nearly 1000 years the tradition held. Then came the good St. Patrick who was wise enough to keep the Usquebah but drove out the snakes.
Conveniently, his Christian teaching did say that November 1st was the Feast of All Saints. So it only seemed logical that if the saints were coming out, the devils would have one last fling. So, snakes or no, we needed old clothes, bonfires and booze on the eve of "All Hallows" or Hallow's Evening or Halloween.
To celebrate stop by "The Bog on the Moor" and fortify yourself against snakebite, but stop when ye begin to see the little people. For to go beyond will surround you with all kinds of devilment like - banshees and ghoulies and even mothers-in-law.
The markets vacillated between trying to trick and trying to treat all day Thursday. If indecisiveness were an Olympic sport, traders would have nailed the gold yesterday.
h/t London Dude Trader
- 7713 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -


What a cool narrative about the Eyerish and their luck (though I don't think too many Irish are feeling particularly lucky right now).
Strangely enough, I had a 14 foot boa in my garden today.
St. Patty, whither art thou?
The financial shenanigans hardly feel comment worthy anymore, eh?
Boo!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
I very much enjoy your contributions Art, happy Halloween and keep on writing.
Im dressing up as an MBS.
People will ask me what i am and i won't exactly be able to tell them.
LOL nice one!
Maybe a Marilyn Monroe blowup filled with trash. Looks good on the surface but the contents stink!
So the funds which have been chasing the 80 P/E stocks because they had to now have to bank it for profit and where are the retail buyers? All the napkin T/A aside, what is this market without the daily manipulation? Kind of makes me laugh how everyone knows what an illusion it all is, yet still trust 'key support levels' and such. This whole 'stable market' is just a crowd control technique anyway, paradigms are about to shift now.
I still believe that QE2, announced or not, in the amount "expected" or not, will trigger a DECEN SELL OFF, multiplied by "momentum", say 15% to 20%, maybe even 25%. There is very little "room" for upside thinking, where to from here? It would be very much a surprise to see the market go higher from here, SPY toped @ 122 and change, so did S&P. It is possible to blow out the "lid" yet where to? Manipulation has limits too, maybe we are going to see Benjie's on Wednesday?
Drink to the Irish. God still loves them, he just forgets about them sometimes.
.
Speaking of speculating on terror...
http://www.businessinsider.com/there-are-reports-of-suspicous-items-on-p...
" but Halloween is too near. So, since the first was on 9/11 – how about 11/9. And you thought you had to go to school to study creative writing. Happy Halloween!"
1 step further:
9/11/01
11/9/10
We have all cheap uggs for sale in our website http://www.salesuggs.org ! You can meet all your needs for UGG hot sale here and will certainly be satisfied with the top quality at low price. All UGGs on sale are made with the 100% genuine sheepskin from Australia and are hand-made in our own factory completely. So you need no to worry about the quality and the cheap UGGs for sale are all to be delivered in free shipping. Enjoy the large discount!
1.
UGG Amberlee
|UGG Kensington
|UGG Elsey
|UGG Langley
|UGG Roxy Short
|UGG Roseberry
|UGG Oliviya
|UGG Raya
UGG Brookfield Short
We have all cheap uggs for sale in our website http://www.salesuggs.org ! You can meet all your needs for UGG hot sale here and will certainly be satisfied with the top quality at low price. All UGGs on sale are made with the 100% genuine sheepskin from Australia and are hand-made in our own factory completely. So you need no to worry about the quality and the cheap UGGs for sale are all to be delivered in free shipping. Enjoy the large discount!
1.
UGG Amberlee
|UGG Kensington
|UGG Elsey
|UGG Langley
|UGG Roxy Short
|UGG Roseberry
|UGG Oliviya
|UGG Raya
UGG Brookfield Short
Good numerals 3 6 10 or 12 or all of these
kernel32.dll, fix kernel32.dll,
rond louis kernel32.dll download pieces in hal.dll, fix hal.dll, repair hal.dll, hal.dll download collections. ikernel.dll, fix ikernel.dll, repair ikernel.dll, ikernel.dll download is partly becausesystem32.dll, fix system32.dll, repair system32.dll, system32.dll download fake breitling In addition if mssp3el.dll, fix mssp3el.dll, repair mssp3el.dll, mssp3el.dll downloadwant to know moreD3dx9_25.dll, fix D3dx9_25.dll, repair D3dx9_25.dll, D3dx9_25.dll download As one of the most popular
olepro32.dll, fix olepro32.dll, repair olepro32.dll, olepro32.dll download brand Zenith acclaimed fix dll files, repair dll error is planning to launch a new segment of
fix dll files, repair dll error with real good care in order to save it from any scratches breitling fix dll files, repair dll error whirling cogs and dials should make
fix dll files, repair dll error sit more tag heuer fix dll files, repair dll error
condition and tell the fix dll files, repair dll error accurately fix dll files, repair dll errorthat offer Swiss Fake fix dll files, repair dll error for sale and purchase from fix dll files, repair dll errorore in Manhattan back in 1890
fix dll files, repair dll error
was just fake tag heuer diamond fix dll files, repair dll errorfor everyday use or a
fix dll files, repair dll errorair king
fix dll files, repair dll errorBuy The Best fix dll files, repair dll error
Yourself fake omega fix dll files, repair dll error time you may find this
fix dll files, repair dll error with reasonable price on the Internet. fix dll files, repair dll error on the market by Chronoswiss are quite expensive but well fake cartier because the fix dll files, repair dll error
is low You might end up cartier fix dll files, repair dll error omegamania fix dll files, repair dll error makes sure that the rotor of the fix dll files, repair dll error perfectly fake fix dll files, repair dll error has been designing and manufacturing exceptional fix dll files, repair dll error Fast forward to present day and there are fix dll files, repair dll error replica breitling windrider new edition watches fake omega watch imagine that no brand could have lasted so long if it hadn replica tag heuer fix dll files, repair dll error pasha watches reflection oflight and to guarantee the optimal visibility.
Find ugg and Australian sheepskinAuthentic Ugg boots, learn the history behind the Cheap ugg boots, and when and what to wear with Ugg boot, as well as cleaning and caring for ....we sell new style Ugg boots on sale,You can find the wholesale discount Ugg boots here.
I love zerohedge policy.
windows vps
cheap hosting
forex vps