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Hanging By A Thread

Submitted by ilene on 05/05/2011 18:39 -0400

Courtesy of MIKE WHITNEY of Grasping at Straws

A bleak jobs report sent stocks and commodities tumbling on Wednesday, while new signs of distress gripped the service industries index. An updated report from the ADP showed that private sector hiring slowed more than expected from March to April as companies struggled to meet rising raw material costs and flagging consumer demand. The service industry index (ISM) --which "ranges from utilities and retailing to health care, finance and transportation"--slumped to its lowest level since August signaling widespread deceleration and a progressive deterioration in the fundamentals. The turnaround has forced economists to rethink their projections for 2nd Quarter GDP and to watch more vigilantly for signs of contraction. This is from the New York Times:

"The economy lost steam in the first quarter. Growth in personal consumption — the single largest component of the economy — slowed markedly. Business-related construction cratered and residential construction fell. Exports stumbled. The only unambiguous plus was continued business investment in equipment and software, which is necessary but not sufficient for overall growth.

In all, economic growth slowed from an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 to 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2011....

When lauding the economy, Mr. Bernanke and many other economists and politicians point out, correctly, that the unemployment rate has declined from a recession high of 10.1 percent in late 2009 to 8.8 percent now. That would be encouraging news if it indicated robust hiring for good jobs. It does not.

Over the last year, the number of new hires has been outstripped by the masses who have either given up looking for work or who have not undertaken a consistent job search, say, after graduating from high school or college. Those missing millions are not counted in the official jobless rate; if they were, unemployment today would be 9.8 percent. The rate would be 15.7 percent if it included those who took part-time jobs in lieu of full-time ones." ("The Economy Slows" New York Times)

So, even the New York Times agrees that unemployment would be nearly 16 percent if the figures were correctly calculated. Those are Depression numbers. 14 million people are out of work and record numbers of people are on food stamps (44 million)

Wednesday's down-market sent commodities plunging as signs of emerging deflation pushed investors into Treasuries. Gold and silver fell sharply. Troubles in Japan, China and the eurozone have intensified fears of a global slowdown and perhaps another bout of recession. The dollar strengthened for the third straight session, in spite of the Fed's zero rates and $600 billion bond buying program. Trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus have jolted stocks back to life, but debt-deflation dynamics in the broader economy are as strong as ever. Unemployment remains stubbornly high, consumer retrenchment has reduced discretionary spending, and housing continues its inexorable nosedive. The stock market continues to inch higher buoyed by central bank liquidity and margin debt, but investors are increasingly skittish and searching for direction.

The soaring price of gas has shifted consumer spending from retail to energy consumption, the opposite of what the Fed had intended. This from Early Warning:

"I doubt energy prices can go a whole lot higher without triggering another recession, so it depends on whether the world can scrape up a few more mbd of oil to keep growth going without prices rising too much more. We will be watching oil production statistics closely...

...We are in an era where the availability of natural resources is not sufficient to support the wealth levels that the developed world has grown accustomed to, along with the speed of growth with which the developing world is trying to approach those same levels..... the global economy keeps trying to grow in a way that is inconsistent with the resource constraints, and then some part of the system tears and gives way....

I would argue that this data is at least consistent with the narrative that, in the post 1973 era, energy is consistently in somewhat problematic supply, and you can think of many of the recessions as showing a pattern in which energy prices are rising as the world overshoots what can currently be supplied, or what can currently be supplied drops as a result of geopolitical events, and energy prices rise until some pre-existing weakness in the global economic fabric tears in the course of a recession, and prices fall back again...." ("Energy prices and recessions", Early Warning)

Welcome to Peak Oil; the era of resource scarcity has begun. Today's troubles will to be a recurrent theme in the years ahead as the economy goes from boom to bust and previous levels of growth become more short-lived and unsustainable. Naturally, our leaders have settled on a strategy for addressing the impending energy shortages; endless war disguised as humanitarian intervention. This is the type of shortsightedness that passes as policy.

The main economic indicators are still turned up, but just barely. The economy is hanging by a thread. Loan demand is weak, wages are flat, and markets are on a knife-edge. Here's a clip from The Big Picture:

"...the real problem is loan demand (confirmed while speaking to bank organizations in half a dozen states over the past year). Loans have to be repaid, meaning that the money must be used to finance the acquisition of employees or equipment that will "pay back" the loan. Common sense. But record numbers of owners (as high as 28%) have reported that "weak sales" is their top business problem while only 4% reported "financing" as a top problem..... Ninety-three percent reported all their credit needs met in March, including 53 percent who said they were not even interested in a loan. No customers means no need for a loan to finance hiring, inventory purchases or expansion (only survival – not a good bank loan!).

But they don't get it in Washington D.C. And not understanding the problem produces bad policy, and there has been plenty of that. If lending is picking up, it is because customers are showing up and there is a reason to invest and hire. The reverse doesn't work – you can't force feed the credit to owners and have more customers suddenly show up ....That's "pushing on a string". Just ask the banks." ("Loan Demand, Not Credit, Is the Problem", The Big Picture)

There's no demand for credit because consumers are in the red and need to balance their accounts. ("93 percent reported all their credit needs met in March.") It's pointless to focus on getting the banks to lend, when people are broke and don't want to borrow regardless of rates. Just like its pointless to dump monetary stimulus into the stock market if it pushes up food and energy prices (headline inflation) reducing consumers ability to spend on other things. This isn't hard to figure out; it's Econ 101. So, why is the policy upside-down?

That said, the stock market should continue to trend upward for another couple months until the Fed's bond buying program ends and investors realize that the real economy is stuck in the ditch. But, for now, it's "Party like it's 1929". Bernanke's punch bowl is overflowing and there's still plenty of time to make money. The hangover comes later.

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Tue, 07/26/2011 - 07:16 | 1493790 pama

I googled it looked at it, then my dyslexia kicked in and all became clear :)
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Sun, 07/24/2011 - 09:09 | 1486886 pama

It's given me a lot to think about as reviews editor moving forward. It seems everyone has different thoughts on what a review should do and what the role of a reviewer is, and it's enlightening to read your thoughts. Thanks everyone.
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Sat, 07/23/2011 - 15:58 | 1485380 pama

Tnemnrevog - you got me on that one. I googled it looked at it, then my dyslexia kicked in and all became clear :)
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Sat, 07/16/2011 - 18:33 | 1462675 hama

The Yen, and Japan, raising cash to pay for the reconstruction of the country, is already on the path of Yen appreciation and will be assisted in their efforts by the other central banks. By acting in a co-ordinated fashion they will begin to reverse the worldwide race to the bottom.
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Sat, 07/16/2011 - 18:28 | 1462657 hama

I am not totally clueless but it is pretty complex. The issues I see discussed in almost every thread are: inflation/hyperinflation/deflation, the fed, Goldmann Sachs, Silver and Gold, other commodities, the EU and the default of Portugal at the hands of the Finns, the crisis in Japan, JP Morgan, something that I think starts.
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Fri, 07/15/2011 - 18:19 | 1461092 hama

El descubrimiento de Ptolomeo fue al encuentro de la visión del mundo existente en la Edad Media; su trabajo fue pronto traducido al latín, y ganó un buen impulso con la llegada de la imprenta. Todo ello justo cuando las naciones europeas estaban a punto de emprender sus viajes de descubrimientos.
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Fri, 07/15/2011 - 16:52 | 1460902 hama

The normal guy/gal is scorned here but for what?? Not understanding the effect of Fukishima on the Llama prices in Zimbabwe?? If no one here can agree on anything how does a non-math or non-economic person have a hope of understanding.
Spider Mite Spray

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 09:09 | 1459012 hama

Thanks there lies man's illusion of freedom. If we die grasping for gold we feel life was exciting while it lasted. If we die retching from cold we feel cheated before and after...to the same extent, double whammied.

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Fri, 07/15/2011 - 07:35 | 1458747 hama

same position experienced with a dour sailor's chord as living thread feels like insult being added to injury... there lies man's illusion of freedom. If we die grasping for gold we feel life was exciting while it lasted. If we die retching from cold we feel cheated before and after...to the same extent, double whammied.
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Fri, 07/15/2011 - 05:26 | 1458621 hama

we feel privileged as the fragile link to life is so precious in more ways than one. But the same position experienced with a dour sailor's chord as living thread feels like insult being added to injury... there lies man's illusion of freedom. If we die grasping for gold we feel life was exciting while it lasted. If we die retching from cold we feel cheated before and after...to the same extent, double whammied.
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Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:59 | 1247566 falak pema

Hanging by a golden thread...is fun...even if the void below is not...we feel privileged as the fragile link to life is so precious in more ways than one. But the same position experienced with a dour sailor's chord as living thread feels like insult being added to injury... there lies man's illusion of freedom. If we die grasping for gold we feel life was exciting while it lasted. If we die retching from cold we feel cheated before and after...to the same extent, double whammied.

The wages of the damned are measured by the hope in their hearts not the sweat on their brow...that is life's fatal illusion and evanescent yet lingering charm...

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 01:15 | 1246466 Yen Cross

I'll dissect this thread on the Jet. A man with a ( TAN) hat posted. I respect that MAN!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:51 | 1247534 falak pema

not his hat?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 00:20 | 1246377 PulauHantu29

Food stamps up to 45,000,000.

Shiller tells us "housing to plunge another 20%" at least.

Many stats show actual unemployment around 25%.

The stock market has been ready for a 20% Plunge beginning with silver and oil this week.

The only question is when will The Bernank announce the next QE3 of somewhere around $1 Trillion...or more?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 23:39 | 1246315 RockyRacoon

Just another day in the salt mines....

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 22:13 | 1246184 anony

"....A bleak jobs report sent stocks and commodities tumbling on Wednesday.."

Bullshit.

If all you do is run Wall Street Journal, MSM standardized crap maybe you should just join them.

Why, TD, do you allow this nonsense?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 21:57 | 1246157 Milestones

Off topic--About 3 minutes ago I tried to access ZH and it came up the went blank then a notation came up "access denied" and the screen was blank as I scanned down but the 3 stories at the top of the page remained online so I poked this one and got on board. Anyone else have this same reaction? I have been reading for over a year and have posted for almost a year now but have never run across this before.

Do I now have a smudge on my forehead?? Milestones

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 23:16 | 1246273 davebrik99

Might be having a few server problems.......kinda like Foxnews site.......a lotta traffic!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 21:05 | 1246018 PierreLegrand

Peak Oil is bullshit...

Oil priced in gold is steady...

http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-priced-in-gold-2011-2

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:02 | 1247310 LawsofPhysics

Yeah, there is infinite oil on this finite planet and it just keeps getting easier to access and requiring less energy to refine. (do I really need the sarcasm flags )

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 20:13 | 1245873 I am Jobe

USA is not hanging by a thread, more like the patient is dead, however the operations was a success.As long as the Bitchezzzzzzzzzzzzz in DC and Whore Street continue to lie and continue the charade this will never end. Hang the Bitchez and their families.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 12:04 | 1247824 sensei

The USA was lured into a dark alley in Las Vegas. It was then beaten and robbed. It is now waking up in a tub full of ice in a seedy hotel room only to realize it's internal organs have been harvested for sale on the black market to underworld billionaires. If it survives at all it will be on lifesupport for the remainder of it's days.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:42 | 1245720 cranky-old-geezer

Bernokio has his marching orders: Keep bankster bonues going.

To do that he has to keep financial markets trending higher and higher to keep the derivatives balloon inflated, where those bankster bonuses mostly come from.

To keep all those plates spinning he has to keep buying govt debt.

Stop buying govt debt and the whole Ponzi financial system collapses, along with the dollar, and there goes all those bankster bonuses.

But keeping the Ponzi financial system going requires massive dollar printing, which will eventually precipitate a dollar collapse anyway.

Not that Bernokio cares. He has his marching orders.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:09 | 1245628 Zero Govt

"When lauding the economy, Mr. Bernanke..."

You mean when laundering the economy no?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:04 | 1245604 Rainman

The fiat party doesn't have to cease to get the bettors racing to the exits. Just the rumor will do nicely. Besides, Bernank knows QE has to revisit once the bubbles shake out. Additionally, the Euro is finally going bearish as the ECB bullshit wears thin and their manufacturing is getting currency stuffed. The USD becomes the best looking whorehouse in a neighborhood full of crackhouses....as absurd as that sounds.

That sob Soros must have sniffed out the ECB rate hold.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:06 | 1245592 lawton

Most of that peak oil stuff is nonsense. We will get some needed deflation if QE3 does not happen and the balance sheet stays at 3 trillion and then the bankers can eat cake and the common man will get a little relief as all this QE is doing is transfering wealth from the middle class to the banksters and their buddies. Let some of their banks fail since they are insolvent anyway without fantasy accounting. The deflation of commodities will shift enough money into treasuries for quite a while.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 12:13 | 1247888 sun tzu

Take the punchbowl away and the party ends. Do you really think they will let Bank of America and JPM Chase fail? Shift money into US treasuries at ZIRP?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 21:39 | 1246111 EnglishMajor

Yes, and Captain Ahab said that big white whale stuff is bullshit.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:31 | 1245710 chet

"The deflation of commodities will shift enough money into treasuries for quite a while."

Yes, I'm thinking that was the whole point of this week (and next, and...?)

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:58 | 1245573 nah

Ron Paul 2012... lets watch him outlast the Tea Party LOOOOOOOL

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:57 | 1245570 No-1

Here's the minutes from the last FOMC

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=omyUncKI7oU

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:58 | 1245561 Sathington Willougby

Not peak oil. Not even peak corruption. But we're closer to the latter than the former.

Life is too short to leave decision making and resources to central planning dotards.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:40 | 1247473 Don Birnam

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 03:24 | 1246577 Squid-puppets a...

cmon, look at the evidence. if we arent at peak oil we are well onto the shoulder. And let's not play semantics, we're talking about the easily available/refinable light crude

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:24 | 1247397 Kayman

"Peak" resources of any kind depend on pricing. Otherwise it is just emotion.

The question is: For every $10/bbl increase in price, how much new oil is available?

Peak Oil is simply a Marketing Concept.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 11:31 | 1247707 Mountainview

China is now selling more cars than the US. Oil volume consumption in China has been up 7% last year. With this tend in place, times of cheap oil will be over for ever. (the solar airplane doesn't relly take off yet)!!!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:01 | 1245539 Kitler

Scrape up another couple of million barrels of global oil production?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/17/us-saudi-oil-idUSTRE73G14020110417

http://arabnews.com/economy/article371083.ece

And for a change, even President Barack Obama is underlining that supplies are sufficient to meet demand. Speaking at a community college in suburban Virginia last week, he said: “It is true that a lot of what’s driving oil prices up right now is not the lack of supply. There’s enough supply. There’s enough oil out there for world demand.”

Saudis cut 800K barrels citing no physical buyers in the market and the price actually falls.

Clearly there are other factors at play now. Think usual suspects. Think BP, GS, JPM...

Think ICE.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 12:06 | 1247838 sun tzu

Think free money from the Fed

Hanging By A Thread

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