This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Happy B-Day 2Pac; Hunting Naked in the Woods Drunk in the Dark with a Machine Gun

apeakunderthehood's picture




 

Big Shout out to My Dogg Pac...

A big shout out to 2Pac-- It would have been your 40th birthday today
had you not gotten yourself shot to death due to some stupid 'rap
battle'.  Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda... fear not Mr. Pac-- your legacy
lives on to this day as white teenagers across the country have sex to
your music in the back of of their parents leased Cadillac and Lexus
SUVs after every homecoming dance... It is good to go out on top.

A long break clears the mind for a writer, and I have to say that my
mind is crystal clear.  This is the complete opposite of the markets.
 The S&P looks pretty beat up these day.  I suppose that is the same
feeling as the Jones' had in 2007 when their 900 sq ft town home
dropped 120K in value and they couldn't cash out enough to support 3
vacations, a few Louis Vuitton bags for the girls, a shiny new leased
Escalade and weekly Bloomin' Onions benders at Outback Steakhouse.  When
the QEII party ends, there is no after party... for the time being that
is (see Nov 2011 if you have a time traveling Delorain to see the next
QE plans).

The markets are in an interesting spot right now.  The limbo bar has
been set pretty low, meaning that 'less-bad' data can come across as
'phenomenal' to those in the doldrums.  Today was a perfect case and
point to this argument.  We had not only another week of crummy jobs
numbers, but the Philly manufacturing numbers were about as ugly as the
VHS tapes you found of your parents doing the nasty to Madonna's 'Like a Virgin',
when you cleaned out their basement before the short-sale.  Just plain
terrible data today-- some of the worst we have seen in years... and the
market shrugged a mid-day sell-off to finish ahead.

We are most likely at a point where the market will kick in a short-term
rally.  The 10-year has been flat for the week despite all the
nastiness from the NY and Philly manufacturing numbers and TLT has
had a bear of a time getting over the 200-day moving average hump.
 This coupled with today's turn-around in the markets points all signs
to (sucker's) rally is immanent.

It should also be pointed out that uber-bull Jimmy Cramer called for a
10% correction, which should be reason in itself to do the complete
opposite and ride a nice shorty run on the SPY. If Cramer Says Sell... BUY BUY BUY

Hunting Naked in the Woods Drunk in the Dark with a Machine Gun

Secular bear markets bring on intense and often erratic short-term
rallies that are often explainable.  Usually the financial porn media
finds a 'reason' and rides the living hell out of it until the rally
fades.  Over the last year we have ridden the 'Rebirth of American Manufacturing,' 'The Jobs Recovery,' and 'The Consumer Renaissance,'
and all of them have been complete bull excrement.  The only reason for
any rally since last October was QEII.  Plain and simple-- kill the
dollar and put upward stress on commodity prices, which in turn will
raise raise equity prices.  Higher equity prices make people's 401Ks
stronger and they spend more money when they go to Dennys (I'll have the
'Moon's Over My-Hammy' please!)  QEII was no different that a
smoke-and-mirrors show the local auto dealer puts on for you when you go
in to buy a car.  Create the illusion of 'something good' right now so
that you will buy in and sign on the dotted line.  QEII worked great for
a few months, but now the party is over.  The effects were similar to
drinking 4 wine-coolers very fast-- a crappy buzz that leaves you
feeling violated with a headache soon after.  And the headache is not
going away because the hair of the dog (QEthrEE) is so far off at this
point due to political hand-slapping.

Still, this market will make you think the grass is brighter in the near
future.  When the markets recover a good portion of the losses you will
hear something about 'Lower gas bringing back the consumer,' or 'Stay-cations bring stronger growth to retail as more consumers shop near home,' or 'job-seekers happy with part-time work as they get more time with family.'  It will be something ridiculous for sure.

The problem is that many people don't know the difference between bad
(advice) press and real (information) data.  A Philly Manufacturing
number that is sliding faster than Tiger Wood's apparel sales is real
data.  A story on Dow to 20.000 in a year is
just bad press.  If you had never been hunting before and you took a
trip to Colorado to land your first kill, you would not know the
difference between bad advice and real information unless you had done
some research.  If you blindly went into your hunting expedition and
your 'guide' told you that all real hunters went hunting naked in the
woods, drunk in the dark with machine gun, you would probably start
tossing back Tequilla in your birthday suit when the sun went down.  You
may actually enjoy the experience (if you can find someone to rent you a
machine gun at 10,000 feet) but you would not have gone hunting.

Remember that real data does not support any rally right now-- jobs
numbers suck, China is falling to pieces, QEII is done, commodities are
falling apart, the dollar is strengthening and Europe is just plain f'd
up (that is 2Pac speaking peeps)... Smells like a recession brewing to
me!  


With a good chance of a short term rally for the S&P, make sure that no matter how much fun you have that you don't wake up naked with a hang-over in a field, out of ammo.... surrounded by ANGRY BEARS!  

I hope you are smarter than that...



Cheers

RandR

PS-- sorry for the break-- took on a new job that required me building
out a sales team on a short time frame.  I promise to post more often.
 Cheers and thanks for reading-- We greatly appreciate the support

http://www.apeakunderthehood.blogspot.com/

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 06/17/2011 - 13:22 | 1378057 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Doesn't matter what you're not wearing, you're never naked with a loaded machine pistol no.5 because it doesn't matter how cold it is out, you'll still have at least 9mm where it counts.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:35 | 1377291 Armando Javier ...
Armando Javier Finkeltein of the Boise Finkelsteins's picture

Tupac was TDS while he ODC so he probably needed ATR but he didn't KWO.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:04 | 1377050 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Don't apologise for the hiatus. We didn't really need another sarcasm-laced tale of QE2 and it's effects anyway.

 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:38 | 1377708 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

+

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:48 | 1377151 2bigtoofail
2bigtoofail's picture

zing!!!

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:01 | 1377046 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

"All hail, the pressure no endeavor can fail
Some missin souls turn to hoes when exposed to jail
In times of war we need somebody raw, rally the troops
like a Saint that we can trust to help to carry us through
Black Jesus, hahahahaha
He's like a Saint that we can trust to help to carry us through
Black Jesus"

"To this click I'm dedicated, criminal orientated
An Outlaw initiated, blazed and faded
Made for terror, major league ni**az pray together
bi**hes in they grave while my real ni**az play together
We die clutchin gla*ses, filled with liquor bomblastic
Creamated, last wishes ni**a smoke my ashes
High sigh why die wishin, hopin for possibilities
I'll mob on, why they copy me sloppily
Cops patrol projects, hatin the people livin in them
I was born an inmate, waitin to escape the prison
Went to church but don't understand it, they underhanded
God gave me these commandments, the world is scandalous
Blast til they holy high; baptize they evil minds
Wise, no longer blinded, watch me shine trick
Which one of y'all wanna feel the degrees?
bi**hes freeze facin Black Jesus"

Searchin for Black Jesus
It's hard, it's hard
We need help out here
So we searchins for Black Jesus
It's like a Saint, that we pray to in the ghetto, to get us through
Somebody that understand our pain
You know maybe not too perfect, you know
Somebody that hurt like we hurt
Somebody that smoke like we smoke
Drink like we drink
That understand where we coming from
That's who we pray to
We need help y'all

(lyrics from Black Jesus)

There is an absolute ton of messages in his music about empowerment and what is going on in the world today.  His music was prophetic.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 08:50 | 1377165 taxpayer102
taxpayer102's picture

@gordongeko

^5

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 07:37 | 1377003 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

You couldn't be further from the truth my friend.  Yeah Tupac was misguided growing up, who wasn't.  If people actually listened to his lyrics and understood the message in the majority of his music in the latter part of his life you would see how ignorant you are by writing what you wrote.  He talked about the illuminati and fearing computer chips long before Dan Brown plagerized Jordan Maxwell!  Tupac was feared by the music industry and ruling oligarchy make no mistake about it.  Lupe Fiasco's "Words I never Said" is about the only song from today's rappers that can compare to what Tupac was about.  RIP Tupac, todays youth need your music now more than ever!!!

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:30 | 1378496 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Rap is "music"?! You're listening to the death of a Civilization. And I'm SURE the Jews running the recording industry were absolutely FEARFUL of all that $$$ Tupac put into their pockets.  You are beyond braindead.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 19:12 | 1379030 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

I guess that's the beauty of an open internet.  Any racist, ig-nant bast'ed can post their opinions.  Opinions are like assholes, everyone has them.  Just a matter of picking thru the shit to find out what's worth reading.lol  

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 19:25 | 1379039 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

+1939

I think we need a Final Solution To The Jew-hater question. 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 12:38 | 1377910 Raynja
Raynja's picture

They realized letting a revolutionary speak to white kids wasn't in TPTB best interest. Rip pac.

still I see no changes

This country ain't ready for a black president

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:18 | 1378435 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

A dead rapper is a good rapper. "White kids"?....you mean, mudsharks.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 17:10 | 1378793 Raynja
Raynja's picture

wow your name pretty much sums it up. hope you catch two in the chest and one to the head.

 

and about

Rap is "music"?! You're listening to the death of a Civilization. And I'm SURE the Jews running the recording industry were absolutely FEARFUL of all that $$$ Tupac put into their pockets.  You are beyond braindead.

ya he put money into their pockets, after he was murdered.  go look up 2pac, if you think he was another rapper then you're probably just lookin at his skin.

 

oh ya, go fuck yourself

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:04 | 1377389 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

"only god can judge me"  (tupac)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_A8Ya9SzA8

 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 05:38 | 1376897 eazyas
eazyas's picture

Hi all, Im a new user, Many thanks for allowing me to join .

 

Im here for the excellent material provided by tyler and the comments posters, been a lurker for a few months now, came over from the keisers site.

 

R.I.P Pac

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 05:21 | 1376892 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

Although I was lost in nostalgia, I believe the premise of the article was to make sure you have plenty good liquor and loaded belts for your mg-42. Things are going to get ugly soon enough.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 01:26 | 1376765 bakken
bakken's picture

OMG Just read the Finucane article!!!  So now I know!  Wait until the Dow hits 20,055 then sell like hell!  Great.  If I die before that happens, I will leave instructions for my daughter in my Last Will.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 01:19 | 1376755 bakken
bakken's picture

I guess I have to ask,  "When the hell do you bail out of a Bear market rally???????  How do you know when to pull the rip cord to avoid going down the  drain with the schmucks?"  I mean, how does an investor guage the depth of blind optimism in a flighty crowd of investor pigeons?  Sadly, when tops blow, they fall FAST!!!

Any advice on tell tales or signs to watch for?  Right now I am afraid of playing because I am afraid of whiplash when the blow-out happens.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:07 | 1377213 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

It's a little bit like this. A whole lot of risk assets have been brought with some very cheap money. These boys are not stupid. They see the game has come to exhaustion so they make a market, a sucker rally, to sell the overpriced stocks into. They get out (thanks sucker) you buy in and the next day the market goes even lower. Rinse and repeat until you dispose of all the overpriced crap. Then, when they have you where they want you comes a bidless market crash.

Some a getting quite a wad together, ready to buy quality assets by selling an IPO of complete crap to the Cramer crowds. Not long now. bide your time

Really a long term investor is a trader who failed to get out when they could

 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 01:17 | 1376744 percolator
percolator's picture

"The effects were similar to drinking 4 wine-coolers very fast-- a crappy buzz that leaves you feeling violated with a headache soon after."

Wow, that brought back a bad memory.  Back in the day a friend and I slammed some California Coolers as fast as we could to quench our thirst and put a buzz on.  Yeah, we got a crappy buzz, but the belly ache was something I'll never forget.  Never had another wine cooler since then.  

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:29 | 1377473 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Annie Green Springs....   uuggghhh.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:51 | 1377333 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

The hard lemonade/cranberry products are even worse in the headache/bellyache department.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 00:55 | 1376725 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

Your mind might be crystal clear, but this article is not.  T'was a bit manic.  And the point was, "the grass is brighter in future?"

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 00:48 | 1376723 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

Drunk...naked...in the mountains of Colorado at night (in the fall during hunting season when it gets pretty damn cold)...with a machine gun.

Any three of those together would probably be ok, but mix in all four and it's a deadly combination.  Take it from an experienced drunk, naked hunter from Colorado...don't try this at home kids!

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 07:29 | 1376976 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

OldTrooper

Hunter S Thompson? The rumors of your demise must have been greatly exaggerated.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 00:44 | 1376717 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Wasn't he really 1-pac?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 07:12 | 1376951 CPL
CPL's picture

2pac of donuts while yer out at the store...

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 07:28 | 1376974 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

CPL

Get your narrow Black ass to the store and grab your Moms a forty and two pack of smokes.

 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:41 | 1377303 CPL
CPL's picture

<pushing back tears of joy>  Reminds me of home as a child....<sliently weep..>

 

Come to think of it...I used to be given a note and money to run down to the store as a kid to pick up cigarettes.  Somehow I doubt anyone could get away with that now.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 19:20 | 1379034 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

Yep. My mother used to do that too. The local corner store was owned and operated by the same family for 30 years and they knew my family well. 

So, I'd trot down to the Harris Hill Deli with 60 cents and a note from mom for a pack of Salem's. Since I was 10 years old, and I had 60 cents, the smokes were 45 cents, I'd get the smokes for mom and a candy bar for me. 

Now all the corner stores are corporate franchises and the employees neither know you nor give a shit about you. The smokes are 6 bucks, the candy bar a buck twenty-five, and the note is an instant ticket to a Child Protective Services investigation and hell of a lot of legal headaches. 

 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 00:22 | 1376692 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You have a mountain under your hood?  Interesting...

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:08 | 1377393 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

Question, is apeakunderthehood a moron?

 

answer, you bet!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!