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The Hard Numbers About Obama’s Anti Business Campaign.
I’m a numbers guy, OK? Give me a set of hard data, and I’m happy to draw my own conclusion. Save the argument, the persuasion, and the spin for someone else.
You may have heard from the media lately that President Obama hates business, deplores businessmen, and is derailing the economic recovery with his anti business policies. So I set out on a hunt for the hard numbers to support these assertions, and found data for S&P 500 earnings going back to 1935 (click here for the chart at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/july-21-2010.html ).
When the former junior Senator from Illinois took office in January, 2009, inflation adjusted earnings, at $7/share, were the lowest in 75 years. They have since rebounded 857% to $60 a share, and most analysts are pegging $75 a share for 2011, close to an all time high. This has been the most rapid recovery of corporate earnings in the history of the country.
So, I thought, this can’t be right. What about Obama’s relentless attacks on greedy banksters and Wall Street fat cats? So I hurried to www.stockcharts.com to see how these pariah institutions have fared. Since inauguration day, Bank of America’s (BAC) stock has rocketed by 220%, while my alma mater, Morgan Stanley, is up a healthy 32%. But I thought the financial reform bill was supposed to drive these people out of business, right?
What about GDP? It has to be terrible. But when I checked the data it showed that the economy has grown during the last 18 months, and that GDP is actually at an historic peak.
I desperately searched everywhere. Rail car loading, container shipments, UPS and Fedex traffic. No matter how hard I looked, the only data I could find showed that business has prospered mightily under Obama, with many, like Citigroup (C), up a stunning 102%, rescued from the edge of bankruptcy.
Then I had my Eureka moment. Jobs! There has been so much talk about unemployment lately that maybe the Department of Labor would help me out in my quest. Aha! Sure enough, the unemployment rate has plunged, and I mean absolutely crashed, from 7.8% to 9.5% (click here for the link at http://www.bls.gov/ ) . That explains why jobs have emerged as the central issue in this year’s congressional races, how Sarah Palin has suddenly become a labor economist, and how Fox News has morphed into the “Where Are the Damn Jobs” channel.
Wait a minute! Didn’t the Bush administration create only 1 million jobs in eight years, compared to 23 million by President Clinton? This must be some sort of statistical anomaly. I frantically scrolled through the BLS site, seeking the smoking gun proving Obama’s anti business proclivities. To my great dismay, all the evidence pointed to an unprecedented improvement in the monthly nonfarm payroll, from a loss of 700,000 to a gain of 100,000, a swing of 800,000 in only 16 months. This is the most dramatic jobs comeback in history.
That’s not what the talking heads on TV are telling me. Isn’t employment supposed to be a deep lagging indicator? I’m confused. Could it be that Obama is actually pro-business, and has only been lashing out at those who caused our current crisis, like super leveraged banks, leaking oil companies, and grasping health insurance monopolies? None of this is making any sense. Help me out here, Sarah. Saraaaaaaah…..!
I think I’ll go back to looking at my numbers.
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.
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The Hard Numbers About Obama’s Anti Business Campaign
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"The Hard Numbers About Obama's Anti-Business Campaign from an Incompetent"
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"The danger to America is not Barack Obama but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the presidency. It will be easier to limit and undo the follies of an Obama presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to a depraved electorate willing to have such a man for their president. The problem is much deeper and far more serious than Mr. Obama, who is a mere symptom of what ails us. Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. The republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, merely a fool. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools such as those who made him their president." -Unknown Author (genius)
Das vi danya, tovaritches!
If someone makes a post on a forum where 98% of the readers are smart enough to know that it is just bullshit propaganda, does it still make a sound?
Third worst ZH post ever. (MHFT currently owns 2 of the top 3)
Was the 3rd in the top three that stupid-ass post about how we need to have a new perspective on Iran and see things from their point of view?
Since most of the other commenters have already covered the ground that I would, no need to be redundant.
I think it's fair to say the the current president is anti- American. Not such a big deal really as much of what passes for the economy is also anti- American ... anti- individual American citizen.
Anyone here trying to get a job? Sell a house? Get a mortgage? Find a place to live within walking distance of your job? The big shots are getting theirs, how about you?
Anyone here needing to see a doctor? How ARE those student loans? How much a credit card balance? How long before you are kicked out of your own house?
Is 'insurance company care' going to bankrupt your parents? Who can you complain to? Is anyone listening in on your phone conversations? Reading your e- mails? Does your neighbor know your credit score? How about who you are sleeping with? Where you go to church? Where your kids go to school?
Sometimes I think the current president would be fine ... for Saudi Arabia! For here ...?
There are very few businesses in America that are lighting the boards up. One is the Multi National Corporations and the other is the very large financial institutions. Obama doesn't have anything to do with the rise of the multi national corporation. This was accomplished through the trade treaties in the early 90's. That sucked millions of jobs out of the USA. He did however get straight in bed with the US TBTF banks in America. This has proven to be dynomite for many lame duck financial institutions, investment banks, Real Estate Investor etc. What about the rest of the businesses in the rest of the economy? Japan. Just look at Japan.
madhedgefundtrader,
Glad I don't have money in your hedgefund, Bernie. Poor choices for data source. Data must have context. Obama is an Alinsky stooge... was Alinsky pro-business?
In regard to fairness, The ideas of "fairness" and "equality" are rooted in greed... think about it.
If you're really a numbers guy, you might want to look at revenues, not earnings...there's a big difference. Revenues are crapola because the whole economy is in the shitter. Earnings are up because: (1) businesses are frantically trying to pull 2011 earnings into 2010, to avoid Mr. Pro-Business' ridiculous tax increases that show up January 1, (2) Businesses have cut expenses...little stuff like fancy toilet paper and EMPLOYEES, and (3) a little talked about provision that goes into effect this year disallows the further use of LIFO costing, and requires that LIFO reserves be brought in...this means that companies like the one I work for, who have a few hundred thousand in LIFO reserve, must now write-up their inventory. Nice, a several-hundred-thousand dollar pop on the income statement with exactly ZERO hitting the Cash Flow Stmt. Like the King is always saying, lets give him some time, like up through the end of Q1 2011. That should pretty much cement the guy's anti-business street cred
Mad, how about a public service annoucement to disclose the name of your fund...so we can stay the fuck away from a PM that actually believes the kind of economic total bullshit that your post offers? I suggest that you subscribe to David Rosenberg's daily analyses. Many here do and we, therefore, understand the real numbers beneath your cherry-picked headline 'numbers' better than you do.
Fucking dickhead.
PD -
You, sir, are my hero of the day...kick-ass comment!
Way to whack the hornet's nest MHT. You got what you wanted, feeling better now? Good, now crawl back to your hole.
Perhaps someone needs to remind the author of this article that
"it ain't over 'til its over." Measuring the score in the middle of the fourth inning is worse than useless -- it's irrelevant!
Too bad we can't junk this article!!! MHFT, Wall Street people like you are the reason why I got out of the market over a year ago. It's ALL BS kiddies!
Neither administration created any jobs. Small businesses created these jobs. MHFT, your post is full of logical errors.
Thank you OT, I could not have said it better.-
Hold on a second MHFT, there is more to the economy than publicly traded companies. President WallStreet and his administration (gang) have certainly done their best to boost Wall Street's earnings. Too bad Main Street has been robbed to do it.
MHT, Obama and his surrogate Ken Salazar have personally attack my family's jobs on two occasions, so you can go cram it up your ass.
Dear Madhedgefundtrader,
Sure am glad I have no money in your hands.
Your story sounded great but did not pass the sniff test, smelled like poo. My favorite part was the employment numbers, pure poo.
But I did read it, just wanted to check and see if the laws of grabity had been repealed. I bin grabbed, yaaaaaa!
Once again, Zero Hedge has done it again; If I voted for Obama am I still a foo?
You bet, Dummy!
Actually, I met a guy who voted for Obamma, he said he thought Obama would start the revolution the country needed.
Ooooh, what logic.
Dont know what Mr Mad is smoking but it must be good.
Highest unemployment since great depression 1. You have to be blind to not see that.
States in most financial trouble, ever, due to borrowing for unemployment and social services.
Highest mortgage default rates, ever
Most currency devaluation, ever.
Companies are profiting not from increasing sales but from savage cost cuts and outsourcing.
Wait til the costs of health care reform and financial reform hit.
Mr Mad thinks this is good? Is he Chinese?
The biggest mistake in this article is not a number. It is a "$" sign around all those numbers. This is no longer well-known DOLLAR with imprinted "In God...." on the back. Today it is no longer "money". It is the group of electrons on hard disk, reflecting the degree of computer idolatry in US. Obama simply legalised what you (known previously as "we the people") citizens of US did for years: paganistic following the false-prophets of US society. Now the rule will be: "the closer to .gov - the more wealthy".
Socialism is - ONE OPINION ONLY, and you "the US people" did choose it 30 years ago. Dont blame Obama - he is a simplified "legalisator" of everythig that was wrong for last 30 years. Yes, Obama did not destroy the business - instead he has destroyed the ... DOLLAR (actually it was David Axelrod and Ben Bernanke). Which in turn will finish the destroying of US business, started by ... yourselves 30 years ago.
As for the actual numbers in the article - this strange situation is not unusual for socialism. This is the first sign of hyper-inflation, when CASH MONEY are starting separation from non-cash (in computer, accounts) money, where visible money in hands are not THAT money in accounts. Get ready for 1000% a year inflation.
Because he bails out the banksters and the S&P earnings recovers quickly that makes him pro-business? WTF are you smoking. He is pro-cashinhispocket and pro-crony. Dipstick.
Slightly off-topic, bet you didn't know that the new FinReg bill that Mr. Pro-Business, head of the Most Transparent Administration in the History of History, just signed into law makes the SEC exempt from FOIA requests.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2010/07/28/sec-says-new-finreg-law-exempts-public-disclosure/
admin gives SEC crims free pass to continue enabling fraud without public oversight. disgusting.
from: http://www.deepcapture.com/moral-hazard-at-the-sec/
"The only reason we know what little we do about the SEC’s culture of irresponsibility is the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), which imposes much transparency on government by empowering citizens seeking access to official records. It was through FOIA that we were finally able to grasp of the true depth of the illegal naked shorting problem. FOIA also helped to identify the motives behind the illegal firing of SEC investigator Gary Aguirre and the extent of the Commission’s failures in stopping the Madoff and Stanford Ponzi schemes. And not least, FOIA made it possible for Dave Patch to acquire the above-cited internal report detailing the SEC’s role in supporting Anthony Elgindy’s illegal trading racket.
In each of these cases, the SEC was held responsible for its screw-ups only after documentary evidence was revealed – and that was only possible through FOIA requests submitted by the public and news organizations.
Today, Fox Business reports that the SEC is claiming Section 929I of the recently-signed financial reform bill exempts it from complying with FOIA. In other words, the SEC currently finds itself in a regulator’s wonderland: all of the authority and none of the accountability. If ever there was a reason to urgently contact your representative in Congress, this is it. That body must be made aware of the disaster of unintended consequences buried in the legislation they just passed. Please contact yours immediately (you can find their contact information here)."
Could it be that Obama is actually pro-business,...
Haa! Sold to you!!
Give me $5T (+$20T here and there) and I will also show you a good time!
Can I ride shotgun?
MHFT,
You need to understand what fascism is...the corporate-state. What has been doing well over the past several decades?, corporations and government. They take care of each other to the point where they become one and the same. Hitler's dream come true.
Godwin's law? Or does one have to wish all bankers dead for it to apply? Well, maybe not all of them, just a select bunch.
Since I have never heard of Godwin's Law, I just looked it up. Funny as hell.
The suggested inevitability matches the ZH mantra....on a long enough timeline.....
Perhaps more truth than philosophy, therein.
Speaking of experience, do you believe madhedgefundtrader even uses his real name in his radio broadcasts?
QE1 was good for business? Tax hikes? Health bill?
Conveniently timed snapshot a president does not make.
Obama is a community organizer
As soon as he gets some experience running a lemonade stand or Dairy Queen, I'll decide whether or not he's good or bad for business.
Running a Banana Republic doesn't count...
Your moniker is right...you are mad.
And please don't ever confuse headline-making big business matters with the entire commercial environment of the USA. That is a fallacy of composition.
Obama has done NOTHING for commerce in this country but destroy it and grab a piece of the scraps for himself and his toadies at the bargaining tables of failed ventures.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/22/senate-votes-30-billion-in...
Of course, Obama gets no credit for this move since the Senate is doing it. He has done NOTHING to help small business. (Beware of absolutes, they'll bite ya in the butt.) If Obama does do anything to help it is characterized as a bailout. For those who don't like him, it's a win-win! Let's face it, the focal point is far from economic. It's about making or breaking Obama.
Rocky,
We may want to wait a bit to determine if credit - or blame - is due for this move. It may very well turn out to be just as screwed up and ineffective as all the other bailouts and stimulation. Personally, I suspect this will be a pretty screwed up mess that is targeted, in various ways, to regions that supported the current regime. And you know FL and OH are getting something for those 2 votes.
For the record, if McCain had won we'd be talking about how screwed up HIS bailouts and stimulations were. It's not about Obama. It's about the proper role of government, no matter who is in which office.
Correct! You get the gold award. My point is that demonizing one man is not constructive. It is a misconception that he is a stalking horse. He's just a fella who puts on his pants the same way we do. Yep, he's clueless about a lot of things, but how can he be the genesis of all that is wrong with a system that has been in place for nearly a century? Those who focus their wrath on a single person are just as clueless as they deem the object of their ire to be. I have no respect for people who give him clever derogatory names in order to make a fake outrageous stand. "It's the system stupid!"
http://www.cobdencentre.org/2010/07/improper-fractions/
+100
BofA and other banks have had large money provided by the Fed. Small business can not get money from these banks. Unemployment numbers may be in the teens to 20+% depending how you spin it. The Federal Government is less than honest. College graduates are jobless and those about to graduate have little prospect of jobs. The rich may be doing well and the super rich very well. The middle class is being destroyed and the under dogs class are screwed. Obama may be pro big bucks business because that is where donations and political support money is the largest. The government is living on borrowed money that has no prospect of being paid back in an honest manner.
Ponzi schemes have a finite life span. When the numbers hit the trillions mark and keep growing, saving the big boys/good old boys while Americans continues to sink under water along with the National dept for future generations------- the Big Lie is not longer acceptable, regardless of the source.
I usually read and enjoy your contributions.
Well I officially have one less thing to read a day when you post. Best way to come to awesome conclusions is have the government unicorn spray some rainbow colored data out of its glory hole and then do some half ass statistical analysis on it. And trying to base reality off of the ticker print is funny. That only works in a free market, and one thing I'm sure of is Maoboma and his merry band of Marxists aren't trying to do is remove government from the American economy and let the free market work. When you are done with this very exciting project why don't you analyze some of the U.S.S.R production data during the glory years; I'm sure that will lead to some fascinating conclusions on how communism is just as efficient as Engels and Marx cracked it up to be.
I cant believe how stupid this guy is.. really.
I've almost vomited reading THAT KIND OF ANALYSIS..
#1 Is Obama pro or contra business?
it depends .. you like watching Beck etc.. he's ..
if you have BRAINS IN YOUR HEAD ( that certainly author lacks) then choice is neither..
Obama is part of elite.. he was chosen to allow elite keep on ##cking my fellow Americans,
shifting jobs to Asia etc etc..
#2 Is Obama responsible for current situation ?
not bit a chance.. it was Clinton 's deregulation , Bush's war on terrorism and GREED OF MY AMERICAN FELLOWS..
#3 What is Obama responsible for?
it's easy .. no financial reform, no political reform, no labor reform .. NOTHING NADA ZILCH..
he's just ordinary professor who cant even talk w/out teleprompter..
alex
ps
shame on author about earnings.. hey' stupid
if earnings increased by 10x is it supposed 'corp. taxes' paid should have increased
about +- same amount.. here's answer .. BIG NO .. to prove see daily/monthly treasury
psps
personally to Tyler Durden .. stop printing material from this stupid asshole.. his stuff is embarrassment to your great site
personally to Tyler Durden .. stop printing material from this stupid asshole.. his stuff is embarrassment
Agreed, the author is spinning numbers & data that is not even correct. Just tripe. "GDP is at a historic Peak" LOL
Yes, a historic Peak for the worst GDP numbers coming out of a deep recession....ever.
Amen.
This guys seems like a fraud to me. He bragged about being a war vet. Turns out, he was a civilian who was briefly commissioned to courier pilots to and from Europe to the Gulf during the first gulf war. Officer? I guess, but I'd be careful bragging about it. I notice he keeps dusting off old interviews with various folks, treating them as new.....very suspect.
Regardless, he is a drunk on the Obama koolaid, giving complete support to Bernanke and Summers, whom are obvious failures to the sober eye.
"Is Obama actually a closet pro-business president? Is Obama actually a closet pro-business president?"
What is this guy freaking stupid or does he merely think we are? First Obama gave the banks trillions, deferred all prosecutions and did not increase their taxes or fees. Next he does a blatant giveaway to healthcare companies by taxing people for breathing (mandate). Next he does everything in his power to minimize BP's liability after their skimp on safety go heavy on the advertising culture causes the largest oil spill in history and this bozo says he's a "closet" pro-business President. CLOSET? Like I said is this idiot freaking stupid or does he merely think we are?
You are right. Those banks sure got off easy. It's a good thing that all this happened after Obama was elected. Oh, wait...
And I'm sure you'll be able to explain to us which of the bank bailouts Obama didn't support when he was (nominally, at least) the serving junior Senator from IL, right?
Hey! I never said he wasn't keeping the plates spinning. He just didn't put them on the sticks. And thanks for the junking, I get so few I feel left out.
First, I didn't junk you.
Second, maybe you missed the point that he was a sitting United States Senator at the time Boy George went on his bailout frenzy. He provided the plates.
Oh, alright. He was the only one and now he's President -- so, fuck it.
Your iron-clad logic has convinced me. What next?
Jim Rogers had it right on a recent CNBS interview. When making comparisons where you start makes a lot of difference. Things were very bad when Obama started. Perhaps the improvement has been more in spite of Obama than because of him. Not to mention the gazillions of dollars provided by the bearded one.
Saying a lot when all you need to know is that Jamie Dimon is number 2 on his speed dial, and at the number one spot is Larry Fink of Blackrock.
If that ain't pro-business, or worse, kissing their asses, then what is?
Yea madhedge well ObaMao will use business to his benefit, when its deemed no longer beneficial he will turn and throw business to the wolves. He's a Marxist and a fascist, ObaMao is pro communism, thats all.