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Head and Shoulders Shampoo
After today's action, thousands of technicians will be pulling out their slide rules in order to mull over the "double top" or "head and shoulders" pattern on the NY Composite. With millions of traders worldwide all looking at the same moving averages, the same patterns, the same 5-min. charts, all in real time, the fate of the stock market and the fate of mankind will now be determined by a few squiggly lines. Which way will it go?
Who knows? But the last few days clearly saw the same herd movement and mood changes which seemed to oscillate back and forth within hours, all determined by the micro tick action of the EUR/USD.
Does Trichet know that the mere utterance of one word or another regarding the ECB monetary policy could determine the fate of modern civilization as we know it?
"Come in here, my little flower. Little do you know, I have unlimited power!!!"
As usual, upon the slightest downtick in the EUR/USD, investors immediately dumped oil stocks, material stocks, fertiliizer plays, etc. and where did they go?
Why, of course, the Last Bastions of Safety and Security: Teen Retailers and Office REITS:
Where do we go from here?
Millions of hedge funds want to know. Because the status of their 2010 employment will be determined by their proper positioning the next 6 weeks.
Double nipple top or not?? Can you see the nervousness and unease?
Watch these:
At support:
At resistance:
Will Goldman upgrade the steel producers?
Or will they downgrade the oil service and/or financials?
We just have to watch and wait.
Because Goldman's Prop Desk traders are also watching and waiting...except they already have Monday's playbook.
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Great illustrations!
Shades of Reinhardt's site, mind you his are a bit more riske.
Shades of Reinhardt's site, mind you his are a bit more riske.
Do you mean "risky" or "risque"? Spelling does count.
It is I, Finest Wines.
R's proper Journal doesn't have the same distractions, however welcome. Are you a contributor?
;)
Were those nipples or nine inch nails under that tee shirt?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4VAv8y2hHM
the computers didn't even work up a sweat today.
gotta be the lowest volume day of the year.
can't wait til it all crashes....that's when i start watching cnbc during the day again.
Thats when you see the DOW appear in its own little box in the lower lefthand corner during the noon news on broadcast.
yep...and the pundits go into the patented "how come nobody saw this coming?"
"how could this have happened after the Lehman collapse?"
"how come nobody stopped this?"
it happens on EVERY catastrophe (except hurricanes, e'quakes, etc).
When it happens on our economy/financial system again, i'm going to sit there and laugh as those stupid phucks in congress drag that lying piece of crap geithner up there as well as that pompous piece of fecal matter bernanke.
Even the local news is catching on, though, the other night I heard on the evening broadcast "a falling dollar helped the stock market rise as oil and commodities rose..."
I thought, finally, the message is getting through to someone...
right, except they havent understood the falling dollar is a bad thing for everyone on earth except the govt/tbtf's.
today i almost punched through one of my computer screens when the buy-progs started. not because trades went against me, but because the sheer stupidity of everything in this country has driven me to the brink of insanity.
sometimes... sometimes i wonder what would have happened we hadn't taken the red pill.....
because the sheer stupidity of everything in this country has driven me to the brink of insanity.
I've learned to embrace my insanity.
Try it on Oso, you might like it.
"MARK IT ZERO, DUDE"
Seriously....this is a bat shit crazy time for investors. I had my moment a few months back. You just have to say fuck it and get mean. Take the money. Take his money, take her money, take everybody's fucking money.
If you can't be a predator, you have to get the fuck out and stay out of the market.
I love my country, I love my friends and family....but that has to go on hold for awhile.
You gotta get mean, my friend.
Crazy is the new black.
Crazy is the new Greed (though greed is still as good as ever.)
...ain't seen nuthin' yet, ...wait till you are face to face with the new fear.
That's what I'm afraid of!
Dammit, I just want my fucking shorts back!
look on the bright side. Saint JPM's derivative exposures are only 48 times its capital. This makes investing in a hedge fund look like investing in gold bars. Looks to me like the lunatic asylum needs to build another wing.
http://www.occ.gov/ftp/release/2009-114a.pdf
At the rate they are losing viewers, you might be the entire audience. ;-)
Robo,
Your commentary is always insightful; often brilliant.But your visuals are the stuff of genius!
I AM GOLD bitches. (IAG)
We need taxpayer funding for BAC/Merrill so they can loan $1 billion to make really cool movies.
http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/the-hollywood-deal/2007/04/19/summit-entertainments-1-billion-deal/
This looks good so maybe the taxpayers get a pass to opening night?
http://www.twilightthemovie.com/
+1
Aren't those the cutest little bee stings you've ever seen...
Like everything else in life....you can't just focus on what you initally see.......it's important to know what is going on in the background...... :>)
HA! Missed that, thanks for giving me a second look... I laugh Loud...
That's some funny shit Robo. Thanks once again.
thanks Robo, now I can conclude my Friday; got to get myself one of those crocodiles, so I can afford to move into the western west side..
RE & rents in here.. more like OMG what recession :(
p.s.
Forbes came out with the Most Powerful list.. PIMCO's only # 33 or so, BG is way behind black rock, I guess CALPERS downgrade had its consequences...
Looks like a loss of trust in this rally:
NTRS
STT
good observation gilga....i saw someone else mention this on friday. they also had BK in there as i recall.
banks certainly appear to be rolling over....one wonders if the market has decided to expand its forward looking think pattern past a 5 minute chart and into early 2010, at least as far as the banks go.
thanks andy...
i also watch bkx closely.
Who is buying retailers at rich prices going into this holiday season? Just toss your money in the toilet and flush.
The shorts?
Seriously Chet, the buying of retailers continued on the parabolic course once cosumer confidence was released...it was this quote that made me want to vomit...
"When we get depressed, we go shopping," Jeff Kleinfelt (if that's not his name, sorry) some crack-pot analyst explaining why you'd want to buy and own retail now.
I mean seriously has the whole fucking country lost their mind or am I really in the twilight zone?
The action in AGO was truly bizarre today. they got downgraded, but not as much as feared, so they popped.
No worries that the entire business proposition of that industry is based on a ratings arb that may disappear any day.
A little bit more run up in that stock and I will be shorting.
Thanks Robo, I love the show, a nice script, but we have to wait until Monday.
Is this your homepage robo? http://sourceforge.net/projects/robotrader/
Sun was shining strong on Chinese solars today:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=csiq,jaso,ldk,sol,solf,stp,tsl,yge
Could this be the beginning of a bigger trend?
Little gem from the 1990's:
"This decade will be marked by the transition from the fossil-fuel age to a solar age, powered by renewable energy from the sun; a shift that will involve radical changes in our economic and political systems." Fritjof Capra, The Turning Point.
That "New Era" prophecy failed. Time to move on.
Yeah, could be a tradeable low.
I'd like to see them go up when the market goes down, that will be a signal if we get some follow through on Monday or Tues.
I like the crocs lurking.....waiting....
There seems to be much misinformation & anger against head & shoulders patterns on ZH. First Fibozacchi, then Robo. You gentlemen are misinformed. I make my living from trading predominately this pattern. Because of one failure, you trash their validity; rubbish. Any pattern can fail, and knowing what to do when they do fail, is priceless. So please, continue your studies of technical analysis (TA), and learn what to look for regarding probabilities of pattern success or failure. In the mean time, knock off all this non-sense on the head & shoulders pattern. If you want to offer insights on why a particular pattern failed great. Generalizations are not needed.
Learn something here about patterns under Lionhead:
http://dacharts.net/chartsphp/day_index.php?fdate=2009-11-13
What a bullshit market day, perfect evidence of bubble action. Consumer confidence misses huge, causing a sell-off-- for all of 10 minutes. This action would normally augur at least a mild continuation of yesterday's red tape on the day. Instead we see SPY up another buck mid-day and up 57 bp at the close, with after-hours SPY volume still barely over 150m.
From Rasputin:
The bottom line is this:
Rasputin - Fri, Nov 13, 2009 - 05:35 PM
The world's central banks and governments are now well aware that tens
and tens of trillions of fiatscos of debt and derivatives have
evaporated.
And to fight "Great Disintegration I", they have flung at least
twenty trillion nightcrawlers in the form of monetizations,
nationalizations, stimulations and "extend-and-pretend" programs.
So far, they have managed to stop the collapse dead in its tracks and even get stock markets to sky.
However, the rot continues on the balance sheets (and in the dark,
dank, derivatives dungeons) of the failed financial gamblers.
And the "real economy" continues to deteriorate, with tens of
millions of proles in the U.S. alone either thrown out of work outright
or had their hours and wages cut.
As a consequence, the entire ten-trillion fiatsco McMansion market
is now solely under the control of Uncle Sugar and the Fed, who are
desperately trying every trick in the book to move McDebtors into
McBoxes--or to try to keep the sheeps from moving out due to
foreclosure.
Finally, our exporter/debt enablers need to keep shipping
gimcracks and geegaws to the U.S. or world trade/"Bretton Woods II"
continues to collapse.
So, the bottom line is this:
All the central banks and governments of the world know that they either:
Inflate
...or:
Die
...and they WILL continue to
inflate/print/monetize/stimulate/backstop/nationalize until ALL
currencies are burnt to the ground.
And you can forget about unwinding to any great degree any of the
myriad "Alphabet Soup" programs instituted by the Fed and other central
banks for probably the next ten years, at least.
So, I'm not particularly worried about Crimex shenanigans at this point.
Because the greater trend is:
"Weimar Meets Zimbabwe"
...on a global scale.
And even the central banks themselves are tacitly admitting it by piling into useless, barbarous, yellow rocks.
Which should be a huge hint that not even they trust their own fiat system.
I've basically given up on my "deep analysis" days.
Because no matter how many five-thousand word missives I carefully construct, it doesn't change the basic facts:
1. "Great Disintegration I" continues
2. So too does the government and central bank's fiat flinging to fight it
3. The general populace of all countries are basically clueless.
...however, since I'm waiting for my Twinkie-and-SlimJim casserole
dinner to finish baking, I will take a little time to answer your
questions:
(JJ): Why the Fed can inflate?
(Ras):Because if they don't, Congress will legislate the Fed
out of existence. Therefore, Bernanke will be swallowin' heapin'
helpin's of Uncle Sugar's debt in "Quantative Sleazing 2.0"
(JJ): How far can the monetization go?
(Ras):Bernanke stated in Congressional testimony that he would
have, and I quote "No problem taking the Fed's balance sheet to TEN
TRILLION fiatscos, on good collateral". I heard him say that with my
own two rat-like Rasputin ears.
(JJ): What are the conditions to force the end of the money printing?
(Ras)Nothing less than the complete and utter collapse of the U.S. fiatsco.
(JJ): What exactly is "collapse"? The end of the monetization must lead to "collapse"?
(Ras):"Collapse" is what was happening back in September, 2008,
before Uncle Sugar and the Fed stepped in and completely took over the
entire financial system. And yes, the end of
monetization/nationalization/stimulation will lead to the immediate
resumption of "Great Disintegration I".
(JJ): How the different outcomes affect the financial markets and world power balance differently?
(Ras):There's a small chance that deflationary debt and
derivatives collapse could overwhelm the efforts of the world's central
banks and governments, but I doubt these guys will EVER give up
flinging fiat in all directions to fight it.
Regarding the geo-political scene, I have also written dozens of
jillion-word essays on the U.S., China, Russia, the EU--all to no great
impact. Who knows what will light off World War III? However, I will
say this much: global economic collapse, combined with the fall of an
imperial power (such as the U.S.) AND the rise of a imperial power
(such as China), usually lead to very bad geo-political outcomes. Mix
in a little "Peak Oil" and you've got yourself a good plot for a
disaster movie.
Ras Conclusion): We're scroomed, and the central banks and
governments know it. This is why they have hijacked the entire credit
creation/backstop process.
Because if they hadn't, then the world would have already imploded.
Now it's just a matter of time before all fiat currencies are
burned to the ground in a valiant attempt to overcome tens of trillions
of fiatscos of ADDITIONAL debt and derivatives collapse.
I cannot over-emphasize that the ENTIRE credit
creation/backstop process for the ENTIRE economy now depends on Uncle
Sugar and the Fed.
Period.
And when, not if, Uncle "hits the wall" in terms of how much our
foreign debt-enablers will lend us at cheap rates, then it's either
back to:
"Great Disintegration I"
...which was well underway in the Fall of 2008, before the Fed and Uncle stepped in, or:
"Weimar Meets Zimbabwe"
...when, not if, the Fed has to step in and institute "Quantative
Sleazing 2.0" and buy up every single outstanding and new issue of NOT
ONLY MBS and housing debt, BUT ALSO, tens of trillions of additional
Uncle Sugar Treasuries.
(Ras Conclusion):To use a tired, worn-out analogy, we are
now in the "eye of the hurricane" and the backwall of the storm is just
now smashing into the economy.
And the central banks and governments are furiously flinging fiat
at the beast, and will continue to do so, until we either drown in a
sea of fiatscos, or are flattened by the hurricane itself.
So, enjoy whatever few months (or, if we're REALLY lucky, a few more years) left there in the Bay Area.
Because life is going to become a living nightmare.
Sorry if this missive is less than my usual too-wordy responses.
I'm just tired of typing my fingers to the bone when: "Inflate or Die"
so succinctly sums up the situation, and besides, my
Twinkie-and-SlimJim casserole is now finished baking.
Another fresh, new, record, closing high:
Thanks for the IAG chart Robo. IAG is a freight train. This is for you on this rainy Friday nite:
http://cocoperez.com/2009-11-13-leightons-putting-it-out-there
Robo
Are you Windysurf from CS?
Inquiring minds want to know...
Optical
Yep....
Those were the good old days of lots of strung-out hookers and eye-candy before the censoring got so bad...
RT,
I like your posts and your style.
But, let me repeast from the other night. You give GS too much credit,
RL "Conviction Buy" on Tuesday. I said it then and will say it again - how is that working out? Check you screen.
I wouldn't have pictures of alligators there.
More like the 3 Stooges.
PS My straddle on AZF paid mint.
Trade Well.
I'm just not trading at all now. One day junk up, next commodities up, next everything down, next gold up & commodities flat, next...
Perhaps this brittle state of affairs is NOT entirely manufactured. Perhaps we are at a breaking point? Which way? We sorely, sorely, sorely need to see those bond vigilantes...time to cut off credit and send the fear of default into the governments and establishment. But I can't see that happening. They will be able to sell as many bonds as they like FOREVER. After all, it IS largely central bank and mega-commercials buying holding up the long bond price. Do they ever have an independent thought in their heads? Do they ever think ahead? No.
Dollar UP and my gold and commodities get crucified, unjustly. Dollar DOWN and my consumer short positions erode even further, unjustly. Is this trade too crowded?
Actually Obama in China could trump GS....He really pisses them off when he downplays the tariffs, he is so clueless how mad he has made them in their Newspapers. Also, look at the daily a/d of the NYSE...that is also a h and S that is so close to finishing the right shoulder on....and last, Robot, thank you for just swimming gators...not the other pic you normally post, poor zebra...
I'm still expecting a significant USD rally when the bear market rally in equities finishes.
And the DOW bearish rising wedge lines on the daily chart are converging ...
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
This is it in a nutshell. It's all -100% - about the direction of the dollar, and Rasputin said it very well, that in turn is simply a product of the program of "printing until further notice." Certain Hannity-Kudrow type politically oriented bulls smugly point to mere basis points of "look, it's not getting worse" as evidence that the equities market somehow, through remarkable prescience, sees dead ahead the Bright New Day of a suddenly flourishing American economy (doing what, I might ask), when in fact the reason for the equities market "rally" (itself a term that implies some broad support for a "cause celebre") is much much malignant: a dollar slowly sinking under the weight of so many dilutive presses in full print mode, in a last-ditch effort to fill a hole created by money trapped in slowly decomposing heaps. For now, buy equities, buy gold, and yes, buy oil. But tuck away some insurance - consider some contrarian holdings pro the dollar and pro long treasuries. I see the day coming when the presses work no more, and then, I'll grant you, when deflation wins the inflate or die war and the debt must be destroyed, that there is a chance that the dollar will win (as the surviving, in the sense of last man standing, global currency, in effect) and this phenomenon reverse, only it may be tough to time it or see it coming. I think though that upon successive reversals that are not promptly bid back up, there may be a sign.
NYA Chart.....one mans head & shoulders is another mans cup and handle!
As a Canadian I do not understand why you Americans dont just go nuts and buy Canadian Stocks, banks, oil companies, gold companies, income trusts. Then you stop worrying about the falling US dollar and all the scams from Goldman Sachs.
if america falls, so do you. if our stocks, the dollar, commodity prices hyperinflate - hyperdeflate, your Canadian Stocks, banks, oil companies, gold companies, income trusts... are worthless. you are not solely invested in yourselves.
Disagree. They can trade oil and gold for Chinese rice. What are we gonna trade? Vacant malls in Florida or the right to provide health insurance to the destitute in California?
I mostly agree. Canadian banks are very well run. Canadian debt to GDP reported by IMF in June 2009 was 75%. US figure was 87%. Goldman Sachs leverage in derivatives in Q2 was 340 to 1. Pretty much all the currencies in the western world are crap.
http://www.occ.gov/ftp/release/2009-114a.pdf
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1016894.shtml
Thanks for those links Blue. That OCC report on derivatives is amazimg. The numbers are stagering. On page 6 there is a pie chart which says that 35% of the credit derivatives are "sub-investment" grade. That doesn't sound too good.
Non-confirmations... SLV, GDX, USO, XLB, XLE, XLF, IYT ...
what breadth??... 38% of Nazdogs close the week above 50 day moving average ?!! IWM ???
The morning after the Dow theory sell signal... BRK buys BNI @ 100 ... Can Buffett defeat Hamilton and Rhea ? Buffett: "BNI purchase not a bargain...It's not cheap... 100 to 200 years..."
Bond yields poised to break lower on weekly chart ???
Barrick finally throws in the towel and capitulates on it's hedge book ... the ultimate margin call ?!!! Did they just buy the top tick ???
I'm sure the machines don't care about any of this old skewl stuff... but, if something goes wrong & six sigma takes control, the machines will follow.
well said Anon... speaking my language. writing a piece on warren, madoff & alternation right now. film at 11.
... do you think that 'saving' the Trannies was a stipulation within the GS warrant giveaway??
Not only another quality piece but what an excellent first paragraph. Nice work RobotTrader !
Six-sigma and they close the markets (all of them) for two weeks. Gather G20 plus GS, SocGen, et al. to the Oval and turn off the computers for another month.
Is it true that the dollar is a 15-month low right now? Is this an all-time low?
No double top here. Market ready to move up next week
with Bernanke's blessings. Remember he has not been
confirmed to his second term yet ....
The market is in that skewed mode of +200 points on good news and +20 points on bad news. All news is good news and this continues until an event.
yeah i wonder if they will upgrade us steel to bust through resistance it raced up to 40 pretty quick after a sell off.
The USD may well rally like it did last year...
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
Appreciate the info, it’s good to know.
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