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The Head Of The World's Biggest Hedge Fund Sees "Economic Collapse" Due To Money Printing By Early 2013
As part of its most recent issue the New Yorker has released a must read interview with Ray Dalio - head of the world's biggest hedge fund, Bridgewater. Dalio's fund, which according to some may now be as large as $80 billion, continues to outperform even in this problematic environment, indicating that unlike various other managers who shall remain nameless, and whose wealth is built up almost exclusively on one trade (and that belonging to someone else in the first place), Dalio, despite rumors that he is preparing to leave his current position and is actively seeking a replacement, is still keenly able to adapt to changing macro conditions. Which is why his warning about future rounds of QE, which he sees as a certainty, should be heeded. Especially since it conforms 100% with the warnings of Zero Hedge - Dalio believes that future inevitable money printing will "lead to a collapse in currencies and bond markets." Dalio is even kind enough to give a time frame. "I think late 2012 or
early 2013 is going to be another very difficult period." He is, to say the least, quite diplomatic.
From the full interview:
Dalio believes that some heavily indebted countries, including the
United States, will eventually opt for printing money as a way to deal
with their debts, which will lead to a collapse in their currency and in
their bond markets. “There hasn’t been a case in history where they
haven’t eventually printed money and devalued their currency,” he said.
Other developed countries, particularly those tied to the euro and thus
to the European Central Bank, don’t have the option of printing money
and are destined to undergo “classic depressions,” Dalio said. The
recent deal to avoid an immediate debt default by Greece didn’t alter
his pessimistic view. “People concentrate on the particular thing of the
moment, and they forget the larger underlying forces,” he said. “That’s
what got us into the debt crisis. It’s just today, today.”
Dalio’s
assessment sounded alarmingly plausible. But when one plays the global
financial markets a thorough economic analysis is only the first stage
of the game. At least as important is getting the timing right. I asked
Dalio when all this would start to come together. “I think late 2012 or
early 2013 is going to be another very difficult period,” he said.
Translation: enjoy your -0.002% Bills and paying uncle Sam to hold your money while you can.
h/t A B
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Optimistic at best...
What are Bridgewaters postions, i.e., Gold Silver etc......?
Is this starting to get top billing on the nightly news over there in the States?
It is over here in Europe.
That's usually a strong indication that a short term bottom is not far off.
I'll take Pladizow's avatar as my "short term bottom"
Such supple breasts...
If only default had such a nice landing.
Hard assets on boobies, boobiez
This is an easy call that will never be verified as it takes place after the Maya 2012 apocalypse. I'm serious.
I'm curious, how do you live your day-to-day life if you seriously think late 2012 is the end of man/world/universe?
the Mayans never said it was the end of the world, just an end of a 5,000+ year old cycle.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230422380457644820419094012...
Had to laugh. Author suggests that you can buy gold, but it has risks... each supposed risk for gold was pretty much the same for Treasuries:
a) Gold - "No intrinsic value" ( vs. Treasuries backed by an insolvent govt)
b) Gold - Doesn't pay dividends (wow! Treasury yields .01%)
c) Gold - Is at an all-time high (... so are bonds. Duh)
d) Gold - Doesn't offset inflation very well (? and bonds do?)
Wisdom from the wall-street crowd....
Isn't the (allegedly predicted) Maya 2012 apocalypse late 2012 also?
Winter Solstice Dec 21
Take a closer look. That bottom's actually a top. Stealth aereoli.
...talk about a stealth aereoli?
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3701059/History-made-as-nipple-is-found-on-foot.html
i don't believe any of these guys....
the crisis is now and coming within 1-2 weeks.....i think obama revalues gold all at once.
buffett that jerkoff just said we need something big well we are going to have something big.
enough of the bs how much is physical gold worth in the us and then lets move forward with rebuilding the country...
No way. They've got lots of options to kick the can...and they will kick it...stabbing repeatedly at the 'print' button being the most obvious. This guy's estimate of end-2012 seems spot-on to me. It also happens to coincide with TPTB's timetable for a collapse into a police state. So, relax and warm another bowl of popcorn.
Riiiiiight. All you have to do is convince 320 million shopping and teevee addicts to get rid of the Federal Government (and all of its handouts) in its entirety and we can get cracking on it! However, be advised that 535 congress critters will, of course, be resisting this effort and running multi-million dollar teevee campaigns, generously financed by the TBTFs, aimed at those 320 million shoppers to convince them that everything is under control and that there is absolutely nothing to worry about. [Transitory] Shared Sacrifice...Hope and Change...Bright Tomorrow [after the Soft Patch]...For The Children...Gawd Bless Merkah!
So, do you have a Plan B?
Damn rebel cynic! Milestones
I never make a hard date call on economic collapse events, but since this upcoming one is the big one, I'll go out on a limb for the big event.
October 10, 2011 Columbus Day will be a major bond and stock market crash and burn date of biblical proportions.
There will be a few major dislocations before that date which may seem to be the big on, but it's not. October 10, 2011 is the big crash day.
I think the bullshit will go on and on for years. When Gold gets to around $5,000/oz. people will be seriously nervous in the service; right now the majority still have belief system intact from the previous reality.
I'm with the smart guy on this one. Probably yerars and years.
Perhaps gold makes its move to $55,000 once it has reached $5000. FOFOA sez it could happen at moment, now, or in a few years.
I just thank God the debt ceiling will be raised to infinity and QE3 will start right on cue.
I need the biggest bang of an economic bust there can possibly be. My doctor prescribed it for me and my life will not be complete without it.
Wall Street has become evil, pure evil.
It wasn't always that way.
In the past it took its lumps like in so many times past.
But now it has figured out a way where it doesn't have to take any lumps it don't like.
A populist uprising could arrive between Main Street and Wall Street.
yeah... as a poster way down below says "it's the slowest plane crash I've ever seen/been on" Also reminds me of observer remarking few years ago "I'd predicted the end, but I grossly understimated the magnitude of perverse creativity of TPTB" (words to that effect)
true...it's the ONLY thing you can say in Bernanke's defense...instead of a needle dive into the ground we get a "controlled" crash into terrain....."bankers and women 1st"....
I'll go OT tinfoil with the Mayan calendar as Oct 28 2011 not 12/21/12
Look it up or youtube "In Search of" with Lenard Neimoy (sp) Mayan
from the late 70's.
And for what it's worth, the Porter Stansbury adds that have run for
+8months straight on the economic collapse.......
I listened to his ad. He almost had me.....then he asked me for money.
-- Aristotle.
Tim Geithner is the only man for the job.
-- Obama. 2009.
A few days ago S&P threatened to lower Treasuries' rating by a notch within three months if no long-term fix to US debt is agreed to by both parties. That's unlikely, so an S&P downgrade, if it happens, would occur around Oct. 10.
I do.
ori
Hehehe ... creative and adaptive individualists always have a Plan B ... collectivists, not so much -- they're just transfixed in the headlights waiting to follow their next 'leader' (known as a 'decoy' to the rest of us)!
Hey ori
its getting safer to return to the usa
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2015131/Black-men-half-likely-di...
They'll have Chuck Norris roundhouse kick the can before they let stuff collapse before it's been thoroughly looted.
oh, yeah... I just went there.
Tell me what you think of this idea.....time to 'cut' a global deal.
Pick a date, say Aug 1., 2011. (just less than 2 weeks).
Every county gets to issue itself $1T in its own currency. ($5T? $10T?)
So the US gives itself, $1T, the ECB gives itself $800B (or whatever the exchange rate is at that moment), Japan $1T in Yen and so on and so forth with every country.
Three conditions:
Personal note:
Bernanke's personal mission is that there "will be no deflation on my watch". Expect global QE3 and prepare. Fix interest rates on debt at a minimum. For the adventurous, acquire fixed debt and invest in an inflation instrument.
I have 50% net worth cash, 50% net worth gold and silver bullion. Here's a funny one, does this make sense? Suppose I have $500,000 cash and $500,000 bullion. If one doubles and one halves, don't I have $1,250,000?
Blow it up, either way.
Bring it on !
Ahhhh......., the Nominal Amount deception still clings to wealth perceptions.
Sigh.
Lets see..... Im overdrawn on my bank account so I will just write a check on my account and deposit it in my account. That will cure the overdraft.
Then, I will promise not to overdraw my account again. Seriously, this is the last time. Unless its like, you know, an emergency. Or I need to buy something real bad.
Dont see why that wouldnt work.
I have 50% net worth cash, 50% net worth gold and silver bullion. Here's a funny one, does this make sense? Suppose I have $500,000 cash and $500,000 bullion. If one doubles and one halves, don't I have $1,250,000?
That is a Brilliant theory.... how will your CASH double in value again?
Neither will do you jack shit when the collapse comes. Enjoy it now and remember the good 'ole days...
Shhh! He's on a roll with one-way math. You make it up on volume by doubling down.
he's holding Swiss Francs
"enough of the bs how much is physical gold worth in the us and then lets move forward with rebuilding the country"
---
"There's more money to be made in destroying a country than building one"
- Rhett Butler
No play here. The States need a Kardashian or something that isn't difficult to think about in order for the nighty news to play it.
No play here. The States need a Kardashian or something that isn't difficult to think about in order for the nighty news to play it.
This isn't "usually". The human desire to trivialize the study of major markets by constantly opting for one simple story or the other simple story from whatever possible cherry-picked list of theirs that makes up their fiction of "the past" is one of its worst features. Neither the short term nor the long term bottom is on the horizon.
Jungle Juice!!!!!!!!!
we don;t care what these people have to say....
this is coming and coming quick now all at once......
Buffett that jerkoff just said we need something big well its coming buy end of summer.....
let revalue the gold already then move on
Hello? McFly? Anyone home? He mentioned the word COLLAPSE and your asking about gold and silver? PM's will NOT do you any good when it collapses. JiT shuts down, nothing is made, nothing is imported, except very few items, and people are in chaos or in subsistence mode... "money" is not always "gold and silver"...
I heard somewhere that the Anunnaki are coming back real soon now and they value gold above all else. If you ain't got the gold, you'll be in deep shit. Kinda like when Pizzaro locked up the Inca, I think.
I have some doubts, but a few K-Rands just in case can't hurt. It's like going to church, (except I haven't gone that far off the deep end).
I'd say net short. Even metals go south when there is a crisis.
Doesn't want to create a panic. And doesn't want to get run over when heading for the exits. If he says late 2012, subtract 6 months or so as a target.
I think this fall but with Isntreal warmongering we'll just have to see.
[Doesn't want to create a panic. And doesn't want to get run over when heading for the exits. If he says late 2012, subtract 6 months or so as a target.]---centerline
Probably the smartest post I'll read today on this article. Thank you, centerline.
I can't imagine hedge fund managers become successful by announcing what they're really thinking.
NOTHING is going to happend folks, by spanish bonds at 6% life time oportunity !!!
NOTHING is going to happend folks, by spanish bonds at 6% life time oportunity !!!
NOTHING is going to happend folks, by spanish bonds at 6% life time oportunity !!!
so hard for some to catch snark on ZH....
Cat got your tongue?
http://dont-tread-on.me/hong-kong-metals-exchange-opens-silver-contract-...
Cisco -11,500 jobs
Borders - 11,000 jobs
Less[er]jobs recovery, awwwright.
We've been waiting for another Lehman-style credit event for the past couple years.
But it never happens.
And I don't think it will happen.
Instead, we'll just stumble along like a gut-shot bear.
There will be ups. There will be downs.
Unemployment will remain high.
The rich will make mega-profits. The rest of us will pray we find work or don't lose our jobs.
We'll be forced to kiss a lot of ass to keep our employment.
Welcome to the new normal.
http://geraldcelente.proboards.com
It's temporary and sustainable.
transitioning from transitory.
transitorily temporary?
It's a transitorily temporary tradition --- like green shoots growing from mustard seeds in a double dip within a soft patch of the Goldilocks economy after a soft landing.
"...and the seeds sown on rock sprouteth not, but those falling in the quagmire produceth green shoots..."
...and so ends the lesson for today.
sustained.
Bailiff, whack his bond rating.
And now for something completely different..
Unicorns puking rainbow skittles with marshmellow raspberry toppings and spinkles.
CHANGE: It's here to stay.
Yes, we can do.
Conflagration bitchez!
And now we brace ourselves and wait:
- AAPL earnings
- Casey Anthony's whereabouts....
who gives a shit on either?
Put me down as giving a shit about Casey. There are many of us here who would watch Lady Killers, A Spew to a Kill, or, Dial M for Muffdiving as Mr. Mcbags noted today.
i am not clear on Juror nr. 3 ...
I have not been watching establishment media. Did the coroner determine that the child committed suicide or what?!
Tuco
Casey Anthony's whereabouts....
---
Last picture I saw, it looke like she was hiing in the backseat of a car...
Gotta say I agree with him. I think late 2012 could get interesting due to crowd psychology
This will align perfectly with the Mayan calander - not the end of the world, simply the end of the financial/monetary/economic world.
And you can bet they wont give up this opportunity to seperate the sheeple from their "money".
The elite are being handed a once in a lifetime asset grab opportunity (larger then 08-11) they will definitely capitalize.
Like my hispanic maid said, "Y-2-Que?"
Pladizow: are you married to the carrier of those? Kinda distracting, wouldn't you say?
Am I a man?
I'm sorry, I can't answer this question for you; but you probably ought to make up your mind on this point.
don't say it, Pladdy. If those beauties are actually man cans i'll just cry...
but they are beautiful - the Mona and the Lisa of mammeries.
We are D.E.V.O.!
The demon elites engineered the whole freaking thing. Do you think for one minute they don't know basic economics and what they are doing?!
Tuco
"This will align perfectly with the Mayan calander - not the end of the world, simply the end of the financial/monetary/economic world."
---
Plaizow is right... Y'all have been duped... 2012 isn't the MAYAN calendar end... It's the "MAY(ER)AN" calendar end...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayer_Amschel_Rothschild
.perhaps today was the start of the market discounting this outcome????
Yup. Obama wins reelection and Dems take back Congress. Then the REAL spending begins.
That's exactly why it'll be interesting: a self-fulfilling prophecy. People will make it so, even it if it'd be a non-event otherwise. If you just take a look around, you can -feel- it. People are itching for something big. People want chaos. Disaster. War. Suffering. They want an end to this system--and if there's enough people who "want" it, then we'll have it.
As an aside, once again the farce is strong as DOW is pumped 60 points into the close to ensure equities never close down triple digits. Just sickening at this point.
Isn't it beyond belief? An entire nation desperately trying to escape the fate it so richly deserves...How long can they levitate equities? They will collapse in the end- along with every fucking retirement system and 401k. Like dominoes.
Or, you will get your 401k nominally, but it will only buy you a bar of chocolate.
That's the other alternative.
Hooray! I love chocolate!
Wait...wut?
No, we'll have chocolate rations in our work camps. And our alottment will be ever-increasing. Times're always getting better, friend. Never a better time to be alive.
Now, if only there were some victory gin to wash down those chocolate rations.
Re: Or, you will get your 401k nominally, but it will only buy you a bar of chocolate.
Yes, the only way out that keeps the current players in power.
(Not saying they'll be successful, but it's their only "hope".)
Or, you will get your 401k nominally, but it will only buy you a bar of chocolate.
So... what, you're saying we should all be long cocoa?
No. not exactly.
Soylent Green, bitchez!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTG7YRsxTZ8&feature=related
catfood
May the farce be with you, young Jedi.
I am sensing a great disturbance in the force. Its as if a trillion pieces of linen are crying out in pain all at once.
Something terrible must have happened.
...
Wait a minute.
These are the proper coordinates.
But where is planet All-debt-bar-none ?
It's gone.
All we see are pieces of broken printer cartridges floating through space, striking our ship's hull.
That's no moon --- it's a printing press!
ha ha. made my day with that one.
Now that's funny shit right there!
OMG! I'm going to spend the next hour with GIMP and pictures of Death Stars and Money.....
GIMP is the Linux version of Photoshop.
LOL.
+1
Awesome zinger, fillet.
That's one helluva "invisible hand". Watching the DJIA could give an aspirin a headache.
"could give an aspirin a headache"--I like that. I think I'll rememberize it for future misuse.
+1
Sad but true. We are headed to Mugabe 2.
REPUDIATION - coming in almost every form. Means don't intend to live up to obligations and that sums up many Euro countries and the USA these days. Don't intend to honor pensions, health care, or drivable roads. This is going to get old as I see "repudiation" everywhere so will be commenting on it frequently. Am writing a longer explanation and will add later.
Meanwhile, and OT a tad, isn't Apple as "flight to quality" increasingly interesting? I think another angle on increasing lack of faith in Treasuries and others as stalwarts.
how can it be any other way? huge debt, small tax base, banks in control of the political process, regulators and central bank. seems obvious.
+ $1605 Lieutenant.
Hyperinflation seems to be the most likely scenario.
Investors can buy (physical) gold as a true hedge. Or they can buy LULU, NFLX or AAPL as RobotTrader would suggest, LOL...
The time may be growing short to prepare! Get going!
you're right. i've got as much physical as i can in the short run.
ZH readers will agree with him. We are such a micro community that to call us a minority is a gross understatement. At 40 dollar levels...I still see silver as a screaming buy. The only protection available when the world's fiat scheme blows the fuck up.
catchy...
Can you guys share your views on what is going to happen to those who have mortgages, student loans, car loans and other loans? When everything starts will banks immediately require to pay off the mortgages and other loans? Or in case of a huge inflation, it makes sense to purchase a new car with lets say a 5 year loan, and lock the interest rates so they dont change. Does the same apply for a real estate mortgage? Or any of this is a bag idea??? Will the student loans be written off? Can someone post your thoughts, because I cant find info on the web what are the possible outcomes for those who have loans. Thank you.
They'll enact legislation requiring all debt to be repaid at pre-inflation equivalent. Acting on the way up is key IMHO (beat the new laws and still benefit from new 'values' new rates, etc.) otherwise those in debt enjoy their hamster wheel perpetually.
.
Mirror
Sorry
Okay, I'll bite, just what is this "outperforming" hedge fund holding? Numbers and details please, don't lower your own standards Tyler.
Thing is, a timeline of '2012-2013' is basically meaningless as it assumes as all these guys do theres a comfortable cushion period until 'things get rough'. Has this guy ventured out of Manhattan lately? And none of them ever saw 9-11 coming, and another one of those is due any day so all I take from this article is implosion is certainly coming, and no one know if its tomorrow or months away.
They're in Westport, Conn. And they say they are the best, so it must be true, eh? - http://www.bwater.com/home/our-company/company.aspx.
But, and it a big but, Dalio makes a lot of sense. I'd never heard of him, but I am obviously an ignorant primitive who actually likes to live in the woods.
Read this - http://webreprints.djreprints.com/2633820217926.html
Doomer supreme, with an argument.
Ray Dialo is not like the rest. He has been at it for about 36 years. He has an incredible track record, the largest fund and is a serious guy who has far less of an agenda than quick hit hedge funds.
"He has been at it for about 36 years. He has an incredible track record, the largest fund and is a serious guy who has far less of an agenda"
---
Great - Then if you have such big slapping balls, take COMEX down tomorrow & spare me the drama
As usual, spot on SheepDog-One. Yes, days, weeks, months or years away? False flag due anytime now.
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez
Phew! Got a year yet to get ready.
Recent headdings had got me freadked.
Europe will soon start to print so I don't share his view in that.
Also: 2013: It's like global warming. First they said that the north pole would be ice free by 2100. Now it's already 2035.
It will all be monkeybrains soup by the summer of 2012, maybe even by newyear.
Agreed. Sooner than later. But I believe we will not see a total collapse before WWIII. They need something to blame it on and a cry for mercy by the people (because the people can't stomach anymore poverty, death, and destruction) to usher in the NWO currency/gov. You know....no more borders. No more currency wars = no more real wars. Until someone like Hitler is given the reigns.
Agreed. 2012 will be a very tight battle for control, and they could lose that battle easily at any point in the year. Likely, when the loft effects of QE3 peter out.
Define "they". The parasite or the befuddled and corrupt host?
Define "they". The Banks that drink the sweet milk from the trasuries teats or the government's that drink the sweet milk of future taxes?
Agreed.
Hold on WW3. Don't see how, even including the Iran-Israel option.
Please, give me a depression instead of super-inflation! Anytime!
I note the pressure on Germany re EuroBonds and EuroTreasury is rising through certain media. The parasites are preparing a new host. Yummy, fees and EuroCDS make fat delicious bonuses!
Please, give me a depression instead of super-inflation! Anytime!
---
Since you asked so politely... We'll give you both in due time...
Can someone explain why the US "can" print itself out of debt and the EU/ECB cannot do the same? Is it all because of $ reserve currency status, and if so, how exactly does that work?
Think of European countries as states that do not have the individual ability to print currency (in fact, they are NOT sovereign). Example, the US can print trillions of dollars, but that doesn't do shit to keep California from going broke.
works for me.
Oil is in US dollars. Nixon dictated that it be so when he removed the Gold standard.
Therefore, US dollars are the international dollar trade. Only the US can print its own dollars.
Mish and I don't always see eye to eye, but here we do; though not with you:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/ridiculous-hype-over-...
"Ten Simple Facts
1) Oil is priced in dollars.
2) Oil trades in Dollars and Euros right now in spite of the pricing unit being dollars. OPEC has recently admitted this fact.
3) Clearly oil does not have to be priced in Euros to trade in Euros, or for that matter priced in Yen to trade in Yen. The same applies to any major currency.
4) Neither Venezuela or Iran hold any dollar reserves. To the extent that either is taking trades in dollars, there is clearly nothing forcing them to hold dollars. By extension there is nothing forcing any OPEC country to hold dollars if it doesn't want to.
5) It takes less than a second for Forex trades to take place. 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, one can sell any currency they want and buy any other currency.
6) The above logic applies to any currency and any commodity.
7) Nothing is stopping anyone at any time anywhere from selling dollars for whatever currency they want to hold. Nor is anything stopping anyone anywhere at any time from selling any major currency for U.S. Dollars.
8) Because currency conversion is instantaneous no one has to hold U.S. dollars to buy oil, copper, gold, iron, lead, wheat, soybeans, or anything else.
9) Dollars are held (or not held) for reasons totally unrelated to pricing unit. Some of those reasons are political, some are based on sentiment, some on trade patterns and trade relationships, and some to suppress the value of local currencies to improve exports.
10) Currencies float and so do the price of oil and commodities. Pricing oil (or any other commodity) in Euros will not cause a price change in dollars. Look at gold which is simultaneously priced in everything as proof."
Fungible.
#4 is incorrect. Secretary of State demon Henry Kissinger cut a deal with the most of the Mideast oil exporting countries in 1970s whereby the U. S. would cap its huge oil reserves domestically (yes peak oilers we do have them) in turn the U. S. would buy cheap Mideast oil with U.S. Dollars. Then OPEC promised to spend a great deal of those dollars buying U. S. debt and we would protect them militarily. That deal is still on except that the Saudis and others now realize that they are being double crossed in that the U. S. debt they hold will eventually become worthless and the U. S. and NATO are now undermining regimes throughout MENA. Saudi Arabia will be the last to fall. Hence, we see Saudi Arabia running into the arms of the Russians and Chinese as well as the Pakistanis to assist in local insurrection. So, for now, at least, there is something forcing most OPEC countries to hold U. S. Dollars but those days are numbered.
It isn't so cheap anymore. Time to uncap them.
Only the US can prints its own dollars.
Can't argue with that but what's stopping other countries printing their own currency and buying dollars with it...same outcome is it not?
"Can't argue with that but what's stopping other countries printing their own currency and buying dollars with it"?
Ans. GS alumnis or wanna-be's governing central banks; collusion?
...& what's to stop ALL OF THE ABOVE from printing "dolleuryenrealyuans" & buying Au with it?
That's just some fine print just like the fact that EU country's can only have a debt GDP of 60%.
I wonder how many meet the standard these days...
And fine print is so easily erased...
Fineprint? Wait for Draghi! He learned all about fineprint at the Squid!
didn't you hear? California, already went broke
.