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Here’s the Winner of the November Election
What has been one of the best performing trades in the world since Obama took office in January, 2008? You could have bet that the Republicans would take control of the House of Representatives in the November, 2010 election, the probability of which has risen from 18% to 80%, a gain of 444%, and last traded at 70.7%.
Those are the odds offered at the online site, Intrade, (click here for their site at http://www.intrade.com/ ), where you can bet on the likelihood of everything from the outcome of elections, to the chance of baseball great Roger Clemens pleading guilty to lying to Congress (80.8%), to the possibility that Israel will launch an air strike against Iran by the end of 2011 (24%).
Intrade determines these probabilities by matching real buyers and sellers who are seeking to take a flyer on the outcome of an event, or simply protect a portfolio from a sudden surprise. The site rates the chances of the Republicans taking more than 50 seats in November at only 47.5%, Senate majority leader Harry Reid defeating Tea Party activist Sharron Angle at 56.9%, and California’s senator Barbara Boxer beating challenger Carly Fiorina at 59.9%.
After watching this site with some amusement for years, I should caution potential traders that these prices are subject to huge swings, are often wrong, and come with hefty dealing spreads. Expectation often meets a tragic end at the hands of reality. They can also be very contradictory. While predicting a Democratic slaughter in two months, they also anticipate that Obama has a 60.1% chance of winning the 2012 presidential election.
Still, with no other metric to rely on beyond the endless, and often paid for, blather offered by talk show hosts (Hi Larry!), it is the only game in town. Full disclosure: the Tea Party attempted to buy all the advertising at this site for the next six months and I turned them down. I gave the same answer to the California gay marriage people. I reserve the right to maintain my neutrality and discriminate against everyone.
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.
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I'm feeling even more optimistic now that I read mhft hopes..umm..predictions.
Intrade will have some predictive value a week before the November election. It has no current predictive value for the 2012 election
No mention of "me" or "you" in the text. I guess that's out of the question.
There is no "the Tea Party", only individual groups. Even Dick Armey's group is just one group that likes to pretend that it is national. So if you're going to name names, then name them. Thanks.
"Still, with no other metric to rely on beyond the endless, and often paid for, blather offered by talk show hosts (Hi Larry!), it is the only game in town."
Um, no. You may not like them, but Gallup and the other pollsters are still a better way to evaluate political races than Intrade. Argue all you want about the phrasing of the questions, but at least they are not subject to being fiddled with money bombs and the like.
I don't agree with MHFT often but this is one statement I completely agree with.
Obama (or Clinton) stands a chance in '12, solely because things aren't going to turn around regardless of who gets elected.
Voted in Obama in '08? Spent like an effer; it didn't work. Vote in conservatives for austerity? Inner city rioting and continued financial crises. Oh and btw, the new "conservatives" are pretty damn RINO after all..... Better give the Dems. another chance.
Bottom line? Epic ass carnage.
If Obama is losing in two years, expect a race war. The media will hype one for sure
Here is some hype or denigration using key words-since we are approaching the mid-terms.
Notice the use of insurgents
Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, Wisconsin and the District of Columbia will all hold primaries Tuesday. And if current trends hold, they will probably present at least a few unpleasant surprises for a national political establishment that's already seen plenty of shocks. In the Senate alone, veteran incumbents Robert Bennett (R-Utah), Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) have all fallen to insurgent challenges this primary season.
Challenger's would have been the correct word.
in·sur·gent
(n-sûrjnt)
adj.1. Rising in revolt against established authority, especially a government. 2. Rebelling against the leadership of a political party.
I won't take the bet against Intrade on the Repubs, but I will on Obama. 60% to win a second term? That's giving away money.
This is the 2nd worst post I have ever seen on here.
The worst was this one: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/our-sun-will-eventually-turn-multi-tril...
What's next, a post about roulette betting systems?
If it identifies a winning strategy for roulette, then I'd welcome such a post.
Always bet (China) red.
Here my prediction: Obama will not make it to the end of his first term as he will be physically removed from the White House. Hopeful out the door they take the trash out of.
Keep us up to date on that prediction. I'm eager for your continued outlook.
2 terms - pure BS. Unless of course by the second term his title is changed from "president" to "dictator"
and to the possibility Israel will launch a counter-attack after Iran launches ....
zero