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Here Comes The Iran Provocation

Tyler Durden's picture



If indeed this is the first step of a forced provocation (shocking "weapons of mass destruction" discoveries coming?) we can't wait to hear how much more excess capacity Saudi Arabia can suddenly find and come to market with. It may however be slightly troubled to replace lost Russian output too: Reuters now reports that crude products exports blocked in thick ice at Russian Baltic ports according to St Peterburg Port Authority.

Bad news for crude bears all around today.


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Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:41 | 1032792 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

The Ruskies have Iran's back covered. Too many investments at stake.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:46 | 1032811 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

As if on cue, the 33rd parallel comes alive.
The cross to the Axis of Evil (Doing).

Distractions, obfuscations...


Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:47 | 1033069 barbarika
barbarika's picture

ORI, Thanks for good right brain perspectives. Here is another usefull info nugget floated in cyberspace today:

What will be the consequences of mumbai style attack on cricket world cup?

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 13:00 | 1033295 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

barbarika, glad to know they are appreciated.
And boy, an attack during the world cup, especially if during an India Pakistan match? Mayhem. Or Aprilhem.

And try as they may, Indian security is pretty awful.
Would not be pretty at all and could spark something big. Since India/Pakistan, bangladesh and sri lanka are involved, the whole sub-continent could be in trouble.


Thu, 03/10/2011 - 01:28 | 1035664 Hicham
Hicham's picture

Interesting perspective, but when you just start drawing lines on a map every which way you're bound to hit an area of trouble, and find causality in coincidence...something people tend to do.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:57 | 1032879 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Nah, that would be the Chinese. They have $200bn invested in Iranian oil.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 13:36 | 1033414 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

yup and the only thing they need to attack is the dollar..not that we're already doing a pretty good job on that front.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:44 | 1032800 Mae Kadoodie
Mae Kadoodie's picture

U.S. now pushing for a NO ICE resolution for the Baltics.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 03:00 | 1035819 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 LOL. yeah, that's good. Congress could vote on it; "turn up the global warming":. heh, heh. heh. ? Seriously, tho; it's spring time the ice will be gone in ten days. Journalism is wonderful, isn't it ?

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:43 | 1032801 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

"someone" trying to keep a lid on oil today.  when they fail, watch out.  $110.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:43 | 1032802 Hugh Jorgan
Hugh Jorgan's picture

This is all very surprising, given the benevolence of the  Califate in Iran, and of course the global warming that has melted all the ice in the baltics............Are you guys just pulling my leg?

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:45 | 1032817 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

limited nuke exchange by end of october 2011

odds stand at 5:6

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:32 | 1033004 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Israel and Iran?

India and Pakistan?

NK and USA?

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:47 | 1032820 Confused
Confused's picture

Propaganda machine just keeps going back to the well. 

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:53 | 1032863 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Why not?.. It works so well..

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:48 | 1032823 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Last I heard the Russians have the only two atomic powered ice breaking ships in the world... I saw them in action on some PBS show and they bust some seriously thick ice.

Now, suddenly these ice breakers can't cut it?

Maybe the Russians wouldn't mind seeing crude rise a bit more before deploying their ice breakers?

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:12 | 1032931 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Those icebreakers are only utilized in the Arctic ocean, pure waste using them in the Baltic sea where ice never gets that thick.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 12:10 | 1033148 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

It's global warming negationist propaganda! </sarcasm>

P.S. Who wants still to drill crude in the Arctic?

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:48 | 1032828 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

I wonder what Doppelhorn would say about that problem?


Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:49 | 1032830 kaiten
kaiten's picture

If US/NATO attacks Iran, then this year will be the year of 3: QE III, WW III.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:50 | 1032847 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

...and perhaps 3 small tribes of natives left alive somewhere in a jungle rain forest...

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:00 | 1032893 kaiten
kaiten's picture

you seem to be optimist

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:24 | 1032976 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

...and this is why I built a house in the jungles of West Africa.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:33 | 1033009 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Great Depression III

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 13:28 | 1033391 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

When did the second one end?

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:49 | 1032835 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Libya and Iran plus Iraq and the US implementing the crusades or something?

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:49 | 1032837 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

I guess yesterday's footage of the women's liberation parade failed to impress.

Et cetera ad nauseum:

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:51 | 1032839 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

The only reason we have not attacked Iran is evidenced by Libya. The "recoveries" cannot chance oil climbing higher. Anyone hear the reports of Gadaffi sending a representative to Egypt to discuss partnership? This whole week has been a wheel turning exercise to keep the markets up praying for a break that goes in the direction of stability. They cannot afford a 5% drop because the climb back will be expensive.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:34 | 1033018 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Good take on events -- already margins getting squeezed, state and local layoffs on the march once budgets officially become approved,  you add $5-6 gasoline at the pump in the US and you will see people turn on Barry Soetero like he was the fat kid that emptied out a buffet line. They need stability without appearing weak, good luck with that  

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:51 | 1032850 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

Big deal.  What's Snooky up to?


Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:33 | 1033012 snowball777
snowball777's picture

About 240lbs give or take (she's hung-over and may or may not have hurled her Sambuca).

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:51 | 1032852 Bryan
Bryan's picture

"We are peaceful country.  We want only nuclear energy for our peoples.  Why you want to take away electricity from innocent citizen?  We never make, how you say, nuclear weapons."

I bet all the naive, peace-loving toads that just loved listening to Ahmadinajad's lies are still in denial.  "But... but... he SAID it was for peaceful purposes!"  lol

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:57 | 1032876 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Well of course. Given the rich history of Iran invading other countries in the last couple hundred years.. As the peace loving Americans buy the pre-emptive invasion  propaganda.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:16 | 1032949 Bryan
Bryan's picture

Not sure if that's sarcasm, but given the agenda to wipe Israel off the map, I would expect either a nuclear threat or even attack on Israel soon, or some kind of pre-emptive strike on Iran shortly.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:27 | 1032988 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

Hi Bryan,

This is not sarcasm, but a serious request.  If you truly believe Iran is thhisss close to attacking Israel (or the US), sign up to fight.  Better yet, become a mercenary.

No sense sitting behind the keyboard when the fate of the world hangs in the balance! 

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:29 | 1032992 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Of course it was sarcasm. There is no agenda to wipe Israel of the map. The statement  was grossly mistranslated. But I'm sure that doesn't matter to Zionist Israeli-Firsters like you.

I'm not out to protect Israel like you are. Are you actually preparing to enlist to go fight these wars of aggression for Israel? I suspect not..

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 12:12 | 1033152 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

+ untold number of civilian casualties!

Who gives a shit if Iran has a nuke, it's not worth starting a war over. Sad to see that all the suckers are still buying the BS pre-emptive doctrine.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 03:08 | 1035826 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Who cares if Iran has a nuke? Wow, it must be wonderful to live on a steady diet of major tranquilizers and soap operas. Iran, my simple friend; is the puss filled center of the Muslim pimple. It funds terrorism everywhere and is deeply committed to a kind of end game where either they win or everyone dies; and they don't much care which. It's a psycopathic nation run by insane cult followers.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 12:43 | 1033250 Bryan
Bryan's picture

There has been an agenda to wipe Israel off the map for hundreds/thousands of years.  What makes you think this arab/muslim leader is any different?  I really do not understand the recent anti-Semite sentiment that seems to be growing.  What is it about Jews or Judaism or God that you don't like?  I believe that our (formerly?) Judeo-Christian nation has a duty to protect the nation of Israel and the Jewish people/religion, if for humanitarian reasons if nothing else.  The hatred and spite between jews and muslims (and atheists?) is really high, and Israel is right in the center of it all!  If you don't think Iran could and would use nukes against Israel, you're pretty naive.


And who keeps junking my posts!!!  Stop that.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 13:05 | 1033325 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Lots of people junking you, because you deserve it. Especially with comments like this:

I believe that our (formerly?) Judeo-Christian nation has a duty to protect the nation of Israel

Commenters on ZH (for the most part) are far to well read to buy this pile of shit..

Go back to your congregation and tell them to prepare. People are wising up to your nonsense..

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 13:06 | 1033328 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture


Curb your dogma....

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 13:37 | 1033423 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

and scoop up after it

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 14:56 | 1033688 andybev01
andybev01's picture

...and before I run it down with my karma.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 13:33 | 1033403 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Protect? Pftt why? They keep starting fights with the region and bring in the US to fight things or play peace maker.

Not once have they done anything for peace or for themselves.

Best thing us can do is stop sending aid and weapons.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 15:03 | 1033707 andybev01
andybev01's picture

There is a correlation to this video clip wherein the girlfriend is Israel and the boyfriend is the USA.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 13:38 | 1033419 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

Yeah and people generally don't like being called bigots, and Bryan, that's essentially what you implied, when they are not bigots but simply don't support bombing Iran cause Israel says so. We have a protect America. That's it. I remember one time a synagogue was going to be built in front of my development that would have put a road right in the front of the development and cause all sorts of other problems including getting rid of several bogs and wetlands that would have flooded everyone's houses once the synagogue was built because the water has to go somewhere. And when people complained, the Temple's parishioners came from all over attacking everyone in the neighborhood calling them anti-Semitic. They simply were protecting their homes. The moral: Stop with the anti-Semitic stuff whenever someone disagrees.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 13:44 | 1033441 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

They love to pull out that anti semite bullshit like a cold glass of water on a hot summer day.  And why not, it's working pretty good for them..


Wed, 03/09/2011 - 14:29 | 1033589 Bryan
Bryan's picture

Well it sure sounds anti-Semitic to me.  Maybe you can help me understand this point of view, since I don't seem to have got the memo.  What is it about muslim-jew conflict that I'm not understanding?  And why would America not want to protect an ally surrounded by her enemies?  Unless you are saying that Israel should not be an ally because... I guess, "what has Israel done for us lately?"  Is that the sentiment?

I understand your story about the temple and the development and I would be angry too, especially if they hid behind an 'anti-Semite' (i.e. racist) defense.  I hate it when people play the race card; blacks, whites, jews, indians, whoever.  But that means that everyone gets to hate Israel now?  That part I don't get.  Are you saying "they're all like that -- all them damn Jews?"  Of course not, because that's sort of Nazi-ish isn't it?

Anyway, I would appreciate a sincere answer, without the 'shit-head' and 'pile of shit' comments to muddy it up.  Thanks!

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 14:44 | 1033648 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  Not commenting on your "debate" but if you are new to Zerohedge or "fightclub" there are a few things to be aware:

1) Credibility is earned, not given...

2) You have to give as good as you get...

3) The way to deal with Ad hominems is to outwit your opponent

4) There are a lot of very sharp people here, be sure you pick your battles wisely....

Ask around here, my posts reflect my "adversary"...

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 15:07 | 1033721 Bryan
Bryan's picture

Thanks, Flak.  Yeah, I have never seen the movie Fight Club -- not into watching movies or TV much.  So I admit I'm a little out of the loop in that regard.  I have no credibility, just my own opinion - same as anyone else here.


Anyway, I see I touched a nerve on the Iran nukes issue here, so I'll be quiet I guess.  I really do appreciate the articles here that support my bearish position on the US market and economy, and my disdain for the illusion that the MSM and government tries to present.  I don't mind a wit contest, but I'll keep my religious and political opinions to myself, as the debate doesn't seem welcome here.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 15:11 | 1033725 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

On Iranian nukes, you may be interested in my post below...

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 15:23 | 1033768 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

You say in a post above that you do not subscribe to the MSM reporting on the economic recovery, and yet, you buy the same MSM reporting on the middle east problems and causes. You are a hypocrite and believe what suites your agenda.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 15:35 | 1033807 Bryan
Bryan's picture

Yeah, I don't subscribe to MSM reporting on much of anything.  In fact, most of the news I get comes from this site or what others talk about.  I keep answering your posts here, but I don't want to fill up Tyler's blog with this stuff.  If you want to continue the discussion, I'd be more than happy to if you write to me --, or know another site devoted to this kind of discussion.  I'm always willing to hear others' views - I learn a lot that way.



Wed, 03/09/2011 - 14:17 | 1033547 Bryan
Bryan's picture

I find many commenters on ZH to be quite cynical, arrogant, bigoted and prejudiced.  Ad-hominems are no way to debate people, come on, you can do better than that.  What TV program is your opinion of anti-Israel sentiment coming from?  Or are you actually reasoning that out yourselves?  If so, I'd like to hear your side.  It's got to be something having to do with your non-belief (or hatred?) in the idea of the existance of a God.  Is that it?

I can't think of any other reason for the immediate bile spewed out at the mention of something positive about Israel.  Wow... that's kinda scary, you know?  Someone read The Revelation and tell me how it ends.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 15:12 | 1033730 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Just because you hide your insults behind so called civil discourse does not lift it to reasonable debate. And no, I do not see Israel as an ally but more of a liability and an obstacle to peace in the region.

You hide behind YOUR interpretation of a so called Holy Book that the majority of us in here view with objectivity rather than blind faith.

You are full of nonsense and you have come to the right place to be called out on it..

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 15:28 | 1033780 Bryan
Bryan's picture

I appreciate your candid comments.  I did not intend to insult you all in my first post.  I apologize for calling you all toads.  I guess I assumed that the view of Ahmadinajad as a corrupt political leader who has a vendetta against Israel is not universal.  Nor that he, like most politicians, lies in order to cover his true motives.


Anyway, I was not trying to hide anything and sincerely wanted to read any opposing views, which I have.  And I'm not trying to hide behind my interpretation of the Bible or my faith.  I realize that many or most here do not share my beliefs, although I really did not realize that Israel and Jews were hated by non-muslims as much as they are.


But, 'nonsense'?  It makes perfect sense to me... if it doesn't to you, it's not automatically nonsense is it?  Wouldn't that be what 'bigotry' is?  ;-)

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 15:42 | 1033823 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

So are you going to volunteer to fight or what?  Or is conflict the sort of thing you'd prefer to leave to brainwashed, naive, 20 year olds from rural communities with bleak future prospects?

Because, you know, as an older person (assuming the photo is you), you've had enough time to absorb the way the world works.  Your uprooting and taking up the cause on behalf of Isis-Rah-Baal will not only get you a spiffy uniform with all kinds of shiny trinkets......but you'll "earn the respect" of wrongheaded Zionistas everywhere.

Lead by example.  Don't be scared.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 16:04 | 1033881 Bryan
Bryan's picture

Um... no, I'm not going to volunteer to fight.  Don't be obtuse. Come out and tell me what your point is.  Or are you just having fun just lashing your crafty wit at me?  hehe

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 16:24 | 1033937 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

Above you wondered aloud whether or not Israel was worthy of US protection.  I assume, based on your posts above, you are in favor of US protection of Israel.  My apologies if my assumption is wrong.

However if I am correct, and you feel Israel IS worthy of US protection yet refuse to volunteer to help......well, I think you get where I'm going with this.

So man up.  Or think this situation through a bit stating your support for US protection of Israel you are endorsing the (unnecessary) murder of US citizens.  The LEAST you could do is join the cause.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 16:51 | 1034021 Bryan
Bryan's picture

OK, thanks for the clarification.  Yes, I feel Israel is worthy of US protection.  I do join the cause by paying taxes, voting for candidates that share my view, and by prayer.  I don't think I need to personally shoot things to be involved.  Besides, I'm a lousy shot.  ;-)  I know my position is probably irrational to you, because it's based on a belief and faith that you don't share.  My personal experience has led me to this position, like yours has led to your positions.

It seems I'm really bringing out the vitriol in people here for nothing other than what I believe.  I really didn't mean to stir it up like that; I like the debate, but maybe not here in Fight Club - it doesn't sound like my kind of movie after all.  Sorry guys, I should probably un-register and not stir things up like that.  Take care.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 16:30 | 1033945 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

by Bryan
on Wed, 03/09/2011 - 15:04

Um... no, I'm not going to volunteer to fight.  Don't be obtuse. Come out and tell me what your point is.  Or are you just having fun just lashing your crafty wit at me?  hehe


1. Old Guy who is all peace, love and fucking sit in while smoking weed.. for 40 fucking years you let this shit go on.. politically correct is dead, because your old, fatass generation killed it by doing nothing, for.. once again.. 40 FUCKING YEARS!

2. Iran or the Jew Haters? here may be somewhat out of your league as once again, being politically correct... has had its day.. that day is dead..

3. the simple fact the think / wanna believe real bad that being polite is far more important to a conversation than the content.. never mind.

4. it is Fight Club, pussies exit stage right.


And as much as you can ignore this line of thinking right now.. I promise sometime in the very ear future you will have a chance to regret not engaging and getting your old ass up to speed. Because like it or not, compared to what is going to come marching down your street, we are very fucking polite you old pussy.


5. would it kill you to join hair club for men?


Wed, 03/09/2011 - 17:11 | 1034085 andybev01
andybev01's picture

I was wondering when you or Israelhol were going to chime in. :-)

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 12:59 | 1033309 caconhma
caconhma's picture


listen shit-head. You want to fight? Then go there together with all your family and friends.

American people are sick and tired to die for your zionist-terrorist agenda.

Your fking propaganda and lie are not working to good recently.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:56 | 1032868 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Russian ports blocked with ice?  Could it be that these people: are far more interested in continuing their funding than accurately reporting?

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 16:32 | 1033961 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Global Warming is a Lie!!! they just needed the extra ice for mixed drinks! you shut up or I'm gonna cry!

Drill! Baby!! Drill!!!

Praise!! Jesus!!!

Stop!! Abortion!! Now!!! let them starve later!

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:58 | 1032877 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Hitlery Fembot will kick their asses with other people's children!

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:01 | 1032891 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Sabre rattling re:Iran should calm things down nicely.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:06 | 1032915 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

The Bad Crude Bears

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:12 | 1032930 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

Claims that Iran wants nukes?  VERY old "news."

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 22:20 | 1034964 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Given what happened to Iraq and Afghanistan, etc, how could anyone fault Iran for wanting to join the Nuke club?  See anyone of sound mind agitating for invading China?

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:17 | 1032944 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

This is my take on the Iranian nuclear issue:

1) The Persians have always been proud independent people. They have also been fucked around the by West for 60 years. It is not surprising that they would want a deterrant

2) Iran has a serious electricity issue. Cutting into their hydrocarbon exports is not desirable. After all, it is tough when next leading exports are saffron and rugs... If Iran burns its reserves for power, they compromise their only serious source of hard currency...

3) If the West had leaders of true vision they would have come up with the following compromise:

- We understand your need for nuclear power

- We will enable your nuclear industry with the proviso that all processing of fuel will be controlled by international personal, beyond your control.

Not only could we have come across as gracious and magnaminous, we could have had a hammer to really keep the Shia jihadists in line. Just to be clear, they are a tiny minority whose cause is only furthered by the asinine policies we choose to follow.

Instead we got a Mexican standoff, do not be naive, the Chinese want a big slice of Iranian hydrocarbons. They rely on them now. They will not accept Western hegemony in Iran. The Russians also do not want American presence there. Look at the map, look at the hydrocarbons in the sphere of Russian influence and the pipelines....

Always, always, follow  the energy. The money follows the energy and the politics follows the money..

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:31 | 1033005 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Good post Flak,


One enigma on the energy trail as per Iran's current oil production : Pre 1979, in Shah's days, when Us contractors+ oil majors ran their oil industry, oil production was at 6 million bpd. Since the Iranians run their own oil infrastructure it is peaking at 4 million bpd. Iran has huge oil/gas reserves. It could pump more. Why this step down? Is is technical incompetence or political design? Having said that, the Ayatollah regimes have not been strong on efficiency, quite the contrary. Its more decadence than anything else even though they have independence.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:54 | 1033090 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

   Here is the quickest thing I can find on Iranian oil

Select Iran in the pull down:

Production dropped like a bomb post Revolution. Recovery was tempered by two things, the Iran-Iraq war and "weak" prices in the 1980s. It is clear that they did not re-invest for these two reasons. Moreover, hard currency was needed to fund the war.

Production has been slowly rising since 1990, but, at a much slower rate than internal consumption. They appear to have plateaued. You are well aware of the fictitious increase in reserves in the 1980's

and more recently summarized here

My take is that they have maxed out what is easy to pump and do not have the hard currency to develop any additional reserves. They are caught in the spiral of declining net exports, subsidized fuel and a growing population.


Just a general comment, a lot of people like to denigrate producers for techical incompentence, that is just not the case. If a NOC is being bleed for cash, then no competence can compensate, e.g. Venezuela, Mexico. Russian fields were a mess, but that was a function of the collapse of the USSR. All of OPEC are on top of the technical game, whether they properly shepherd it is a different story.  Also, Cantarell was probably the most techically sophisticated Elephant field ever exploited, one more reason why when it collapsed, it fell off the cliff. 

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 14:02 | 1033485 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture
Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari

Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari (1946 – October 30, 2007) was a senior expert employed by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). He held a number of senior positions with this organization beginning in 1971. He was also an advisor to the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre.

He held a PhD in chemical engineering from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, Switzerland. He had been a part-time lecturer for the Technical Faculty at Tehran University for many years. Bakhtiari wrote a number of short essays and is the author of Peaks and Troughs which is about the modern history of Iran.

Dr Bakhtiari suggested that it would require an act of god for the world to avoid warring over depleting energy resources. He also believed that a peak in natural gas would be more shocking than peak oil because natural gas is less fluid and requires pipelines and LNG facilities to export overseas.

Bakhtiari was featured in the film The End of Suburbia.

Dr. Bakhtiari died suddenly and unexpectedly of a heart attack. His funeral and burial were in Tehran, Iran. He is survived by his children, Amir Bahman and Golbenaz Samsam Bakhtiari.


"The big risk in Saudi Arabia is that Ghawar's rate of decline increases to an alarming point. That will set bells ringing all over the oil world because Ghawar underpins Saudi output and Saudi undergirds worldwide production." - Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari

"As for Iran, the usually accepted official 132 billion barrels (2.10×1010 m3) is almost 100 billion barrels (1.6×1010 m3) over any realistic assay."



for “Middle Eastern Five,” according to the major assessors

Country Oil & Gas Journal (1) BP Statistical Review (2) Colin Campbell (3) Bakhtiari’s Estimate (4) Iran 132.5  132.5 69.0 35-45 Iraq 115.0 115.0 61.0 80-100 Kuwait 101.5 99.0 54.0 45-55 S. Arabia 264.3 262.7 159.0 120-140 UAE 97.7 97.8 44.0 40-50 TOTAL 711.0 707.0 387.0 320-390


The chart didnt post well

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 14:06 | 1033515 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Bakhtiari made a number predictions on C+C production. His curves were among the best at the time. Dig into the oildrum archives to see what I mean.

You could say he was the first "Deepthroat" that emerged from behind the OPEC veil of secrecy....

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 14:19 | 1033555 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

good analogy though I doubt the iranians made a porn star out him

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 14:22 | 1033568 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

For shits and giggles, check my prediction of Brent prices over in "Wholesale.."

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:18 | 1032954 Weimar Ben Bernanke
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A war between Israel and Iran would go down like this. Israel would attack Iran's nuclear centers successfully but they would face reprisals. Iran,Syria,Hamas,and Hezbollah would fire missiles at Israel. Israel's David Sting,and Iron Dome systems would be overwhelmed. the Israeli air force would have to retreat from the north and go south because hezbollah has M-600 missiles,Syria,Iran would fire a multitude of missiles at Israel. Israel would then plan a ground invasion of Gaza and southern Lebanon. Israel at this time will do a bombing devastating blitz of Gaza,Syria,and Lebanon. Syria is getting anti ship[ missiles from Russia which with no doubt be sent to Hezbollah. So Hezbollah would sink at least one Israeli ship like last time. The air war over Lebanon will be very different. with upwards of 40,000 Katyusha rockets stockpiled, Hezbollah still retains the terror option. If Hezbollah’s plentiful M600s were fired in high-volume volleys, the Arrow system could be overwhelmed. If the IRGC [Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps] launched Iranian high-value Shahab-3Bs and variants timed with Hezbollah’s M600s, the Islamic republic could deal telling blows to strategic targets…. Hezbollah is said to be flush with the Russian-made SA-7 “Grail”, the SA-14 “Gremlin” and the SA-18 “Grouse."
These shoulder-fired SAMs are a point defense for covering mobile missile launchers like the M600 when exposed during the firing and retirement cycle. Also in the bargain came the SA-8 “Gecko”, a mobile launcher with a range of about 16 kilometers and a height of 12,000 meters. Mix these new capabilities with Syria’s new radar system supplied by Tehran… For Israel, the cost of setting back Iran’s nuclear program a few years before dealing decisively with Hezbollah and Syria is now at an all-time high
If Israel goes to invade southern Lebanon they will fall into a trap. The Lebanese military made a clear a couple of months ago that if Israel invades Lebanon that they will fight along side Hezbollah. So Israel will face a bloody guerilla campaign. In Gaza it will be an urban warfare nightmare.

Iranian special forces and Iraqi Shiite militias will start cutting the long US supply line alone Route Tampa from Kuwait City. Then the Shiites on southern Iraq will start a campaign on attacking the reaming 50,000 US troops. Iranian irregulars would cross the border to give support and man power for the Shiite militia. Shiites in the Iraqi army and police will defect to the side of the militias and start killing US troops. The troops will be able to hold their own but we would be forced to retreat from Iraq. The reason because at this time the Iraqi govt would collapse and all gains that was made from the surge will be un done for good. We could possibly see at least 100-180 US troops being killed when the Shiites cut the supply line temporarily(because our air support will stop the blockage) and start conducting guerrilla attacks on them.Our troops would be stuck in Iraq and surrounded. It would be like the battle of Mogadishu timess 1000. On Afghanistan we could see Iran reluctantly giving the Taliban SAMs. That would make the war effort harder to win.

Iran's proxies would try to instill violence on Arab govts. For example we could see the shia majority in Bahrain overthrow the monarchy. This would make things real uncomfortable for us since the 5th fleet in in Bahrain. The could try to make the shia minority in eastern saudi arabia start a revolt against the House of sauds. The revolts around the arab world would get worse and violent.

Iran has formidable asymmetrical retaliatory capabilities. For example, all of these are vulnerable to Iranian sabotage or hundreds of Iranian missiles on the eastern side of the Gulf: from the narrow Straits of Hormuz, which still handles 25 percent of the world’s oil traffic; to Bahrain, the U.S. Fifth Fleet’s headquarters where the population is two-thirds Shiite and the royal family is Sunni; to Dubai, where about 400,000 Iranians live, including many who are “sleeper agents” or favorable to Tehran; to Qatar, now the world’s richest country with per-capita income at $78,000, which supplies the United States with the world’s longest runway and sub-headquarters for CENTCOM, and whose LNG facilities are within short missile range of Iran’s coastal batteries; to Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura, the world’s largest oil terminal, and Abqaiq, nerve center of Saudi’s eastern oil field.
So an attack against Iran would be disastrous in multiple levels. Yes conventionally they are a paper tiger,but their strength is in asymmetrical warfare. they will try to destabilizes the region and create as much casualties on us and Israel. Israel will be bogged down in Lebanon fighting a combined Hezbollah and Lebanese military guerrilla force. ,we would be forced to either retreat from an Iraq descending into chaos or stand and fight until reinforcements come but face very high casualties in which the America citizen would not stomach since the Iraq war is very unpopular. Pakistan could collapse with violent Islamic demonstrations. And the war in Afghanistan gets worse with the Taliban getting SAM missiles to hinder the war effort. And the middle east more destabilized and dangerous then before. oil will skyrocket and hurt the already collapsing global economy. Any one with a modicum knowledge in economics and military strategy anf tactics know this would be a disaster and blow up Israel and our face literally. 

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:35 | 1033014 bankonzhongguo
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The Israelis have a "zero azimuth" nuke retaliation strategy.  If they are attacked by strategic missiles they will nuke the capitals of all surrounding Arab (Persian) countries and then wait to see who is left to fight them on the ground.  This was the inevitable "cold peace" that convinced Sadat to take the US money and stop fighting Israel.

Israel puts gun to the Arabs and says, 'if Iran hurts me, then I kill you."

Unfortunately, the protesting Arab rabble in ME streets did not get the memo.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:37 | 1033026 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Have you been reading the War Nerd articles?

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 12:02 | 1033116 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Not going to comment on the details, but I think he trying to channel Tom Clancy...

Meant to ask you about your avatar, my recollection is that is a photo of a member of DAK, correct? The irony of being probably taken in Libya is not lost on me...

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 12:18 | 1033180 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Hey Flak, no - it's not a member of DAK, it's a Johnny Depp image from "Fear And Loathing in Las Vegas"

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 12:58 | 1033310 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hilarious movie...better book..

You can now understand my confusion :) Looked to me like he was wearing a scarf... my bad

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 16:57 | 1034033 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

great book

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 12:17 | 1033171 bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

contrary to popular belief, nuclear weapons have made the world FAR SAFER. 

no one likes to admit that the combination of 1) mutually assured destruction between major nuclear powers  with 2) unilatterally assured nuclear incineration of cities in a 'back against the wall' conflict   , has actually drastically decreased the odds of unpredictable conflicts. when there is full scale non-nuclear war now, it is much more predictable and more easily negotiated. 

however, much like the use of leverage and cheap financing on wall street, nuclear weapons may well have retarded the short term prospects of various conflicts across the world, at the expense of guaranteeing the next full scale global war to result in unbelievably more destructive nuclear  destruction.

as einstein said. i do not no know what weapons world war three will be fought with, but world war four will be fought with sticks and stones. that's all good, but what if world war three doesn't erupt for another 500 years, in 2511?


Wed, 03/09/2011 - 11:26 | 1032987 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

The US is not going to attack Iran. Not going to happen, unless you see a ton og gnerals being fired in the process.

We do not have the conventional war resources to go after any 70 million country.  We couldn't do with with Iraq with half the population.  If would take a year of pre-positioning and air strikes and will only strengthen the Iranian resolve - supported by Russia and China.  Heaven help everyone if we commence a preemptive nuke war doctrine.  The Persian identity is very old and very strong.  EVERY Iranian, either a old stoic Islamic revolutionary or some 20 something facebooker is proud of their country producing 'the bomb.'  Think Pakistan.  How many Pakistanis think they should give up their nukes because it makes the Indians or Israeli unhappy.  Please.

Would Texas give up their nukes if a Connecticut hedge fund manager could not sleep at night?

The World knows we cannot even police our border, win in AfPak, shoot down a plane over the Gulf of Sidra or get rid of African pirates.  The consensus is Amerika has had her best days.  Thank CFR Zakaria.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 12:02 | 1033108 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

There is at least a 50-50 chance that the order to attack/invade Iran would be the end of any president who gave that order.


Although many on the sidelines and interested in the future of other countries besides the U.S. may scream for the blood of the raggies, the mil know it would be a catastrophe.

I make the chance of the overthrow of the U.S. gvt in that scenerio more likely than the Irainian.


You heard it here first.


After all , let go of your propaganda from the MSM flaks, it is CLEAR that mullahs/dictators , you name it will sell oil.

Israel, nah not gonna happen.



Wed, 03/09/2011 - 12:00 | 1033114 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

wwIII started in 1971 and we are nearing the end. ww4 will be fought over diminishing oil supplies. It trumps all other concerns and will dictate any non-conventional strategy. Those Irainian enrichment sites are toast though.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 12:48 | 1033279 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Two Issues:

  • The other ticking bomb.

    As Raymond Davis’s immunity case nears its March 14th hearing (now March 16th), Washington is scrambling to avoid what one Pakistani source labels “an atomic bomb.” Davis, who stands accused of murdering two Pakistani civilians, has been fully outedas a present CIA and former Blackwater contractor with Special Forces experience. Yet the White House still insists that Davis enjoys diplomatic immunity, with President Barack Obama appealing to “a broader principle at stake” and Marc Grossman, U.S. special envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, calling for Davis’s immediate and unconditional release.

  • In conclusion, more prisoner swaps are in the works.


Wed, 03/09/2011 - 13:25 | 1033380 caconhma
caconhma's picture

<Davis, who stands accused of murdering two Pakistani civilians>

Check you facts before you post nonsense. These two "civilians" were members of Pakistani intelligence/security forces.

There will be any prisoner swaps.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 13:55 | 1033484 Atomizer
Wed, 03/09/2011 - 22:33 | 1034997 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Methinks he will be shot while attempting to escape...

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 14:03 | 1033508 docmac324
docmac324's picture

Ahmadinejad is not your fathers Gaddafi.  Gaddafi destroys oil wells, Admad will destroy Israel, not.


False flag me thinks.

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