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Here Is Europe's Initial Attempt To Derail The EUR
Some headlines out of a freshly striking Greece, which is doing all it can to remind the world, suddenly, that things in Europe may go full circle back to the conditions from May:
- PAPANDREOU SAYS CONCERNED ABOUT GREECE GOING FORWARD
- GREECE IS STILL IN A STATE OF ALARM, PAPANDREOU SAYS
And here is G-Pap reprising in his role as the US president:
- PAPANDREOU ASKS GREEKS TO CAST A VOTE OF HOPE, CHANGE
- PAPANDREOU ASKS GREEKS TO REJECT CASTING VOTE OF PROTEST
Either this is an attempt to reincite a EUR currency panic, or just simplistic fear mongering to prevent an all out rout in advance of the local elections in November. Our take: a little of both.
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Time to take an absentee-owner yacht from the harbor and steam out of there before things get too much worse, I reckon.
A little of both seems to be the correct conclusion. But as we saw in France where the once angry striking populace is now firmly back in the cafes sipping coffee and wondering what it'll be like to work 20 hours a week for two extra years.
It is not over yet, not by a loooong shot. The French has just begun to become even more militant. Just wait till Sarko tries to push through his next austerity initiative.
Another "just wait until". Ok, let's look at this. Supposedly Greeks would riot crazily and not allow any of the austerity measure to go through. That lasted about a week or two and then they got their asses "austeritized".
Same with the French. Protest for a couple of weeks, get defeated, go back to the cafes until the next measure is announced. Leave the cafes, protest for a couple of weeks, get defeated, go back to the cafes and bitch about it. Over and over.
You give people way too much credit to think the French will react any differently to the next austerity measure.
Harry,
Your posts of late ring with complacency, to the extent that you now feel confident enough to laugh off potentially bad news. Fair enough, as it has been a mighty rally, but can I challenge you to a bet, as you chose to do with a fellow poster?
I would like to bet you even money that there will be a day in the next 365 that the stock market is lock limit down. Certainly, in your world of endlessly bullish "fundamentals" this is an unthinkable possibility, but I think your complacency is utter foolishness, and I'd like put some money on it.
I completely agree that there will be a day when the market opens limit down. I trade long and short. There will be some major news to bring a limit open - that's natural.
But the trend now is upward and continuing higher. I'll just follow along until it doesn't. In the meantime the Dow is about to close today at its high for the year. Not too shabby.
So no wager?
Meaning you are fully cognizant that this market might be a illusion, but you are confident in your ability to find the exit door before everyone else riding the trend?
If so, fair enough, but it certainly doesn't jibe with the sunny assurance of your other posts.
but you are confident in your ability to find the exit door before everyone else riding the trend?
That's why I use very tight stops on all my long trades. The exit point will come, just not until we reach the year's highs again IMO.
I do hope you get caught long when that happens.
PS Nah, Dow didn't close at high of year, and just you enjoy the next few weeks. All of your posts reek of CNBS crap by the way.
Do you know whats significant about July 14th dumb fuck?
Fuck you Harry ...
Sarkozy's teargas will dissipate by this Thursday ...
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2027355,00.html
"After the vote on the law, it's law [and] it must be respected," said Labor Minister Eric Woerth on France 3 television on Oct. 24. "Striking today accomplishes nothing."
All you need to know right there.
Only thing you need to know if you are a slave, Harry.
Yea - I'm sure the protesters are really respectin' the law right now. Go put on your Judge Dredd suit on right now and make 'em respect your authoritah!
"After the vote on the law, it's law [and] it must be respected,"
Except when mega-blowhards get into conflict with it, then it is just ink & paper to be discarded at will.
Just like in Greece.
Not always true in France, example
CPE (Contrat de Première Embauche)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Employment_Contract
The French people need to start building guillotines... and platforms to hang government officials. Seriously.
Uh, the french retirement age was 65 until the early 80's when Mitterand lowered it to 60 despite that being demographic insanity. But, hey, what's insanity to a socialist? Taking it back to 62 is just not that big of a deal. And, apparently, surveys of the french populace show that most of them agree with the move.
True, polls show that 53% approve the move from 60 to 62 (and 65 to 67 at full rate). But polls also show that a large majority (69%) of the French support the unions, strikers and manifestations against the reform :
http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2010/10/22/selon-bva-le-soutien-au-mouvement-social-contre-la-reforme-des-retraites-se-renforce_1429574_823448.html
So does this seem like a contradiction? Nope, the French in principle agree that they are going to have to work longer, but they only agree to this if the reform is socially just : why put all the burden on those who have to work for a living while the rentiers who live from their amassed wealth pay nothing?
At the heart of all these protests, what the French can't accept any longer is that someone like Lilianne Bettencourt, the richest woman in France, only ends up paying 20% tax on the revenues from her capital and nothing for the socail security, while an employee making 100,000 Euros a year in wages ends up paying 50% in taxes and social security contributions.
Also, a lot of foreign commentators get hooked on this age "60" as evidence that the French are spoiled brats who want to take it easy. But do these people know that the number of years of work to get full pension benefits, which will be extended with this reform to 41.5 years, and is the only thing that really matters, will be the highest in Europe? Compare with 35 years in Germany, and only 30 years in Spain...
The American people don't need to do anything? Look at our mess, even more devastating than French.
No currency intervention Bitchez
"CAST A VOTE OF HOPE, CHANGE"
is this a bad joke?
Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice......
Gutless rhetoric is all it is.
Hey - it worked for Barack.. why not Europe where they worship him?
Not sure about that. Western EU (Ex-GER of course), but try asking around in Central and East EU.
Ummm...no. Maybe you've been taking Rush Limbaugh seriously? Europeans generally like Obama better than Bush. That's it; "worship" is useless hyperbole.
I take Rush seriously like Democrats with W... Save me the political correctness speak. What's next - I get chastised for calling Barack "Herr Savior" despite his propensity to ensure no one can fail under his watch?
nm
No, that sounds about right!
How can you ask people to hope for a change that merely transfers wealth from the average citizen to the bankers?
dollar is causing eur to rise right? not the other way around?
Currency musical chairs- where will the dollar be when the music stops? The Euro? Yen?
Read an editorial in an Irish newspaper this weekend about them leaving the euro.
judenfetzen is going global bitches.
and you are a racist
and you're not?
Just keep smoking that Hopium, people of the world! NEVER cast a vote of rebellion! Thats BAD! Just keep voting for those who constantly bend you over and shove the ungreased broom handle up your keesters, splinters and all!
Go ahead, tank that Euro and pop that dollar up, collapse the markets! Going to happen anyway, may as well let er rip!
Even as the dollar gains a bit of strength the market continues to push higher. I agree, we've traded higher on the dollar dropping obviously. But there is more to it. Earnings have been pretty decent if not strong in some sectors. Consumer spending is notching up.
So part of the market moving higher is also attributed to stronger fundamentals from corporate earnings as well.
'Earnings' are mark-to-fantasy BS 'beat the street' on wildly lowered estimates like Goldman Sacs farce, accomplished mostly by 'cost cutting'....you know, firing their employees and selling off their assets. Boeing 'surprises the street' by laying off and selling 15 jets? Wow I guess when Boeing and all the other cost cutters finally have 99% of everything sold off, theyll REALLY beat the street!
Intel's street beat was particularly funny, by counting a massive ramp in accounts receivable as profits...stuff those channels with stiff likely to never sell boyz! We got to beat the lowered street concensus!
Really Harry...are you suggesting its best I just be FOOLED by this garbage?
"Earnings have been pretty decent if not strong in some sectors." Boy - those razor-thin expectations by analysts are sooooooooooooo hard to beat.. combined with last second lower guidances by these same companies and VOILA.. the earnings are exceed by a strong margin. So in other words - whatever. There's a reason why you're getting junked heavily.
I'm getting junked heavily because people here want to hear only bad news. Period. They can't see past anything remotely good. If it's reported as good, it must be manipulated or a fraud.
There were some pretty impressive earnings this past Q especially when compared with the doomsday scenarios that have been presented around here by many posters. Look past the headline companies, which I'm sure many here don't do, and look at the earnings of the 490 other companies in the S&P before you make such broad statements on earnings. I can because I have and continue to do so as they report.
Aaaah, no, you are getting junked heavily because you are posting rubbish.
Not that I junked you, you have to say something monumentally stupid for me to bother, but you're as ridiculous to listen to as the MSM.
That's just from the top of my head. And you trump this as "good news". Right.
I would not disagree with most of your points, although I will add that we have seen stabilization in all of the data you posted.
Unemployment is looking bad, yes, but it's not getting worse and has stabilized.
Foreclosuregate continues to be swept under the rug. It's not going to "inflict serious paint" IMO.
Housing was the best M/M rise in 28 years.
And then there is a consumer getting stronger by the minute: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-24/markets-smell-recovery-gaining-as-consumers-drive-retail-sales.html
So while you can tell me how bad things are. I can clearly make the argument that they were terrible and are getting better in many instances while stabilizing in other areas.
Too much of markets smelling recovery, economists seeing signs of recovery, and CEO's hearing customers talk of recovery.
It smells, looks, and sounds like bullshit to me.
Harry, your agenda is wearing thin here, in my opinion. It could be desperation. Maybe it is time for you to go silent for a while, once again?
Everyone where I live on the West Coast says right now:
It's daytime. It's 12:30. It's October 25.
They all agree with that out here so obviously, with your reasoning, it must be bullshit.
There is a big difference between it is, and it is like.
There is a big difference between it is, and it is like. One is fact, the other opinion.
I dunno which financial firm you work for - but I'd strongly warn you stop with your blind bullishness here before you get verbally beat down again when the market went south in May. Didn't you learn from your earlier mistakes of going bulltard earlier this year? I would not side with anyone whose only chance for fortune is heavily dictated by some entity that can make things disappear faster than they can reappear...
For the 1000th time, I am not a perma bull. I was long until May then went short throughout the summer. It was all posted here on ZH as to why I flipped to short at the time. Same with why I flipped back to long. And when the time comes, I'll do it again. It's just that time isn't looking like any time in the near future.
No, I don't want him to be 'silenced'. Neither do I want Leo, or anyone else who disagrees with the established view here on ZH. Otherwise, it'll end up as a circle jerk, where no-one is allowed to challenge the established vision.
Listening to both sides of the story is healthy. I can't stand socialism, but I read Marx's Das Kapital. I disagreed with every word of it, but the effort has paid back dividends while arguing with socialists.
Don't worry - despite what we say - no one will silence him. But to hear him constantly repeat what CNBC says all the time - that is not healthy. That's just simply irritating. If he's willing to post CNBC's company line here everyday, we will continue to call him on it.
Amen.
I've always bought and had subscriptions to magazines and newspapers with which I KNEW I would disagree. It can be annoying but it's ultimately healthy to have some idea of what's being said by those of different viewpoints.
It also lets me ask liberals if any of them every read Reason or Liberty magazines or even just National Review. None of them ever do. None. Maybe there are some somewhere out there but the consistency of certainty about other viewpoints being wrong despite never allowing themselves to encounter those viewpoints in writing is pathetic and dismaying but no longer shocking.
This recovery is predicated on creating wealth out of positive returns on all asset classes: bonds, stocks and commodities. Yet none of the returns are positive in real terms because of the plummeting dollar. Only those that beat the market are able to stay afloat above the inflation you purport the fed is creating, even though the existence is easily contestable. Those that cannot beat the market will need to withdraw money out of one of those assets and once one goes so will the others.
Well, I respectfully disagree, but just want to point out it's hardly much of a stretch to see the best M/M housing increase, considering the figures are as bad as they are. Not forgetting, of course, that the figures will be downwards revised next month.
M/M rise in housing is a misleading metric. People closing so kids get into new schools by beginning of school year. Down 19% YOY is the real news here.
"I'm getting junked heavily because people here want to hear only bad news. Period. They can't see past anything remotely good. If it's reported as good, it must be manipulated or a fraud. " Are you really that full of yourself? Oh my.. you really need to buy a clue with all those APPL shares you bought on margin..
What you post is sunshine and lollipops BS rubbish more fit for the Yahoo! boards and the permabulls over there. You just expect everyone else to buy into the BS well I wont, I see all this for the rampant fraud it is and I dont care how much phony bucks Ben throws at it, it wont work.
I kind of miss amd_stockguru. He would enter the amd forum, spawn a lot of nonsense about AMD filing for bankruptcy and selling off their fabs (he had even been told off by the SEC a few times, back when their connection was too slow to download porn!) and the angry responses would be worth gold. Absolute froth-at-mouth trolling moments; Hilarious.
Oh the good old days!
FYI: I respect your posts - always clear with good information to present your case. Definitely one of the smart/educated ones around here. Sometimes it's tough to wade through the loonies but there are plenty of excellent contributors here to make this forum worthwhile.
Politicians do tell the truth sometimes...
LOL
Yup......when "the truth" somehow serves to support prior lies or when it's used to start the next round of lies.
Two kids in the playground:
USA: Our economy is $h!tty--just look at the rampant mortgage fraud!
EU: Nuh uh! Our economy is $h!ttier--Greece is going to tank everything AGAIN!
Thats about the whole thing in a nutshell!
++++
The question is when Greece is actually going to go tits up? We have been waiting for the heartbeat to cease, but it is on life support.
Oh yeah! Your dad could beat up my dad!
I believe most conflicts come down to a fight between the haves, and the have nots.
Just for one week, or even one thread, it would be interesting for everyone posting to indicate if he or she is a have, or a have not. It could be determined by a somewhat arbitrary method such as if you are you above, or below, the 50% line for net worth?
Across all households, the national median net worth is $86,000. Half of your fellow citizens have more than that, half less.
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/retirement/20071101_American_wealth_a1.asp
Half of Americans pay income tax, half do not.
Half of American households receive a monthly payment from the government, half do not.
It is amazing that we are so divided, but are not conquered. Or are we?
I don't think being above $86,000 in Net worth would constitute "a have", and under a "have not".
Not when the distribution of wealth in this country is so lope sided :
the top 3% own more than the bottom 97 % : that's the reality
see this link for a good overview:
http://sociology.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html
"The have" are those top 3% who in their immense majority don't need to work for a living, they are rentiers. The "have not" are the bottom 97% who must work for a living.
Well one thing we know, the canary is laying on the bottom of the cage with it's feet sticking up.
LOL, that is one DEMISED canary for sure!
I dont care how much the CNBC whore crew proclaim they see signs of strength and vigor in it...stone cold dead.
It's just resting. It's the famous Norwegian Blue Canary. It's pining for the fjords.
We knew thee of old,
Oh, divinely restored,
By the lights of thine eyes,
And the light of thy Sword,
From the graves of our slain,
Shall thy valour prevail,
As we greet thee again-
Hail, Liberty! Hail!
--Dionysios Solomos, 1824
A way of getting the Euro to go down, dollar up...
DavidC