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Here We Go: Goldman Lowers Tomorrow's NFP Forecast From +275K To +200K
The direct line must have rang. Just as expected, and right on cue.
Initial Jobless Claims - Claims Edge Down From Higher Levels; Lowering Payroll Forecast to +200k from +275k
Actual: 439,000
Previous: 445,000
Consensus: 440,000
Released: Thursday, April 01, 2010 at 08:30 (New York time)Claims Edge Down From Higher Levels; Lowering Payroll Forecast to +200k from +275k
BOTTOM LINE: Initial and continuing claims both decline modestly from upward-revised bases. The total number of claimants receiving benefits - including those on extended programs - rises about 240,000 in week ended Mar 13. Consistent with the analysis presented in last night's daily comment, we are lowering our estimate for March nonfarm payrolls to +200k from +275k.KEY NUMBERS:
Initial claims -6k to 439k in week ended Mar 27 vs. median forecast 440k.
Continuing claims -6k to 4.662 million in week ended Mar 20 vs. median forecast 4.618 million.MAIN POINTS:
1. Initial claims for the week ending Mar 27 were in line with expectations, falling 6,000 from a base that was revised up slightly. Continuing claims for regular programs followed a similar pattern, falling 6k - also from an upward revised base - in the week ended Mar 20.2. However, as noted in last night's daily comment, the key outstanding issue for tomorrow's report on payrolls in March is the total number of people receiving benefits during the survey week (week ending Mar 13). That figure rose 238,000 to a level roughly equal to the figure reported for the Feb 13 week. Based on these results, we are lowering our estimate for March nonfarm payrolls to +200k from +275k. The underlying assumptions are +25k in underlying net hiring (vs. +50k previously), +100k for a weather rebound (unchanged), and +75k for temporary Census hires (vs. +125k previously).
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I saw nothing bullish in the initial claims. But, fuggetaboutit summed the whole thing up nicely in yesterday's post. Arguing about the NFP number tomorrow is like worrying who is going to win the WWW wrestling match. The fix is in.
So who's going to win the match? The Hulkster is my hero.
JYD is gonna come in from Mid South and bitch slap all the WWF/WWW pretty boys. LOL.
LOL
There's no "fix" in professional wrestling. They simply coordinate some of the action in advance in order to maintain the excitement level of the crowd. Since the crowd already has an idea who they want to win, they wrestlers are simply satisfying the crowds demands and giving them what they want. Otherwise they will riot and there will be social unrest.
The promoters rightfully should be compensated for their efforts in maintaining a stable crowd excitement level and any talk about out sized bonuses is ridiculous. We need to attract and maintain the best talent we can get, otherwise they will leave wrestling and move to politics.
They already work at the NYSE, FINRA, GS, JPM, etc.
CD, you're a conspiracy theorist. Anybody who thinks that there is planned coordination in the WWE is blah blah blah.
I prefer the title "SCAD Observer" as is "State Crimes Against Democracy Observer".
The powers that be are promoting conspiracy theories via official pronouncements and their lackeys in the mainstream media. I just observe them in operation or post mortem.
For example, the PONZI is an ongoing SCAD.
State crimes against democracy. Oh, come on. You tinfoil hat types.
http://antiwar.com/radio/2010/03/31/jesse-trentadue-2/
so i guess the number is gonna blow past 200,000 right?
Yes, talking it down to play the UPOD game.
I think we need better expecters.
Probably not that big a deal, but challenger job cuts up 60% month on month, effectively ties it with highest level of job cuts since August 2009.
Likely this has no correlation to the ugly miss on ADP ysty, which no one predicted, yet everyone summarily dismissed.
Huuuuuuuuuuge number coming tomorrow, regardless of the fact that objective non-government data tells us private sector is still shedding jobs and the pace of layoffs jumped meaningfully last month.
You hit the nail on the head with your post yesterday. Of course, the MM's will want any excuse to gun the spoos.
Who believes that the Census Department won't be much larger and have a great many more permanent employees after this census is completed?
I'll call that bet and raise you another 100k on a weather rebound.
OK, let 4285 be the baseline figure:
http://www.census.gov/aboutus/who.html
another trap it seems. this happened several months back where GS came out with a slightly more pessimistic revision the day before and the mkt sold off. Number came in better than expected and another squeeze ensued.
Pathetic.
DavidC
Tomorrow's number will be much, much higher than 200k. Don't be shocked to see upwards of 300k.
Harry, why? What's the composition?
That info on tax receipts for the month, although difficult to extrapolate, is pointing toward a very large gain in jobs. Probably all census but it'll look great regardless.
Exactly... tax receipts are pointing to 300K+. They're also going to revise back in the 100K February snowjob numbers. Don't be surprised to see a number above +350K.
The important thing is to parse the government anti-jobs out of it.
http://artfiles.art.com/5/p/LRG/19/1918/34M9D00Z/300.jpg
Them dems want to keep the house and senate this fall so expect the numbers to be whatever will make that possible. Propaganda full steam ahead from here. Look out your window and you can plainly see we are headed for double dip city, and they know it.
In a way, it's worse than just a "double dip", which would be bad enough. It's going to be debt-overhang driven permanent suckitude for two decades.
Well, they have been re-paving quite a few of the roads in my area.
No way tomorrow's number comes in less than 200k. Then watch it be paraded as a turnaround.
The Macro View
http://themacroview.wordpress.com
Of course. The Ministry of Truth has been walking-back the > 300K talk since early February. The need a huge upside "surprise" to try to get Lord Barack's approval numbers above water again.
This market doesn't need any upside surprises. The Market IS the upside surprise. Just listen to Laksman whatever his name with ECRI. We're up 1% again today on no bullish news. Go figure.
Kent Brockman: Professor, would you say it's time for our viewers to panic?
Professor: Mmm, yes I would, Kent.
From wikipedia. It seems art is imitating life again. Just pull up any mainstream media "news" show to find a real life version of Kent Brockman.
Brockman represents the worst of his profession; frequently judgmental, careerist to the point of absurdity, and more than willing to film and sensationalize a schmaltzy, emotion driven puff piece for the sake of a few extra ratings points. (As with most Simpsons characters, Brockman's ethics and competence vary according to the needs of the episode.) He has been seen throwing tantrums because he cannot find certain snack foods, and in an episode in Season 8 blithely announced that the boom operator on his news program was being fired the next morning (for which he took a clout on the head from the angry soon-to-be-ex-employee). He seems to command excessive levels of power within Channel 6, even having a segment of the news programme to air his own (usually highly reactionary) opinions on current issues called My Two Cents. Despite all of this, he has won a string of media awards, but is most proud of his unspecified trophy from Del Monte.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_Brockman
Govt hiring like crazy in BK Nation, main street sees 20+% unemployment as the 'new norm', hey jump around and call for stawk spikes all you like a civil war is coming.
given all that is currently priced into the market, wouldn't it be ironic if market took a dive on strong job number.
Given that there will likely be pressure on government yields from a higher than expected gain in net jobs (rememeber, Timmy has to finance this mess somehow), perhaps equities do make a turn lower.
Doesn't really matter, though, if the minions are out buying spoo's when nobody else is trading.
Completely ot until the next gold post comes up. In the comments at Calculated Risk someone brought up the fact that if you Google Eric King or King World News you find zip. Nor at the KWN site itself, nor in Wikipedia. As a devotee I was surprised, yet suspicious when I confirmed this. Perhaps, indeed, Janet Tavakoli is closer to the mark than GATA. Can anyone knowledgeably comment?
wow this market is just unbeilavable. Everyday. Is this for real?
I have the same disbelief. It's about as real as Enron earnings were.
I have several unemployed friends, college grads, who will argue with you for hours that the recession ended sometime last summer because, "Hey, look at the stock market, bro."
Believe it.
As I tried to explain to you yesterday, nothing is "for real." Still short, tough guy?
your a fucking idiot. i said if we break 1180 and hold i am out. well see tom, i might be out by monday mrnig or not. I am not like you who bitch and complain and hold for ever. Let me guess you have been short since S & P 900. Fucking moron. go cry wolf, the market is rigged the market is rigged.
so what i lose about 1000, i have been short around s&P 1173. Big deal.
ROFLMAO. Good to know you're not getting emotional about your trade.
Good to know that you are a fucking idiot. Gotta take some risk my freind. I ain't like you who bitch and complain, the market is rigged the little guy sitting in the room says we are gonna be up today. Go trade your 100 shares. Fucking idiot.
I've stepped aside from this trainwreck 'market'. I love hearing people say that they can glean from the squiggly lines and a crystal ball gaze that they're seeing the direction of 'the trade'. Unless youre on Geithners Blackberry speed dial list, you're whats for dinner.
Speaking of Spin City this market is getting bald and the f-ing press is selling Rogaine and Propecia but you look in the mirror and youre :
1. Still outta hair,2. Still outta hair,3.Not growing any hair and 4. Thinking you see 1 little hair coming in.
Now what does the press do ?
1. Show a blown up photo of that one hair 2. Praise that 1 hair as the future. 3. Put up poster size ads of Rogaine breakthroughs . Headline : Rogain stock soars sending market up.
Anything real in this land will be destroyed long live wigs?
If you're short this market, the best thing you could hope for is some insane blowout number maybe 400k. An exhaustion gap is the only way to reverse this trend. If we gap down, another squeeze will follow.
Everything is a "buying opportunity". What can go "wrong", anymore? Someone insightful asked that on ZH a while back. It seems that anything negative that can be exposed by the general media has been nutered and constitute the wall of worry whose function it is to be climbed. We only hear ameliorated negativity.
Not sure there are any black swans that can sufficiently shock the system. I am not sure there even "can" be. I fear there is "only" structural risk and controlled implosions left.
be
46,000 people in New York just exhausted their 99 weeks of unemployment. it was a big story throughout the state today.
the market is so ridiculously overvalued that bernanke et al have set up a huge echo bubble within one year and nothing in regards the major bank crises and credit contraction and debt overload has been fixed. this is so stupid it's almost funny to watch.
the rush from the theatre could get ugly.
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