Here Is What Happens After Greece Defaults

Tyler Durden's picture

When it comes to the topic of Greece, by now everyone is sick of prevaricating European politicians who even they admit are lying openly to the media, and tired of conflicted investment banks trying to make the situation appear more palatable if only they dress it in some verbally appropriate if totally ridiculous phrase (which just so happens contracts to SLiME). The truth is Greece will fold like a lawn chair: whether it's tomorrow (which would be smartest for everyone involved) or in 1 years, when the bailout money runs out, is irrelevant. The question then is what will happen after the threshold of nevernever land is finally breached, and Kickthecandowntheroad world once again reverts to the ugly confines of reality. Luckily, the Telegraph's Andrew Lilico presents what is arguably the most realistic list of the consequences of crossing the senior bondholder Styx compiled to date.

What happens when Greece defaults. Here are a few things:

  • Every bank in Greece will instantly go insolvent.
  • The Greek government will nationalise every bank in Greece.
  • The Greek government will forbid withdrawals from Greek banks.
  • To prevent Greek depositors from rioting on the streets,
    Argentina-2002-style (when the Argentinian president had to flee by
    helicopter from the roof of the presidential palace to evade a mob of
    such depositors), the Greek government will declare a curfew, perhaps
    even general martial law.
  • Greece will redenominate all its debts into “New Drachmas” or
    whatever it calls the new currency (this is a classic ploy of countries
    defaulting)
  • The New Drachma will devalue by some 30-70 per cent (probably
    around 50 per cent, though perhaps more), effectively defaulting 0n 50
    per cent or more of all Greek euro-denominated debts.
  • The Irish will, within a few days, walk away from the debts of its banking system.
  • The Portuguese government will wait to see whether there is chaos in Greece before deciding whether to default in turn.
  • A number of French and German banks will make sufficient losses
    that they no longer meet regulatory capital adequacy requirements.
  • The European Central Bank will become insolvent, given its very
    high exposure to Greek government debt, and to Greek banking sector and
    Irish banking sector debt.
  • The French and German governments will meet to decide whether (a)
    to recapitalise the ECB, or (b) to allow the ECB to print money to
    restore its solvency. (Because the ECB has relatively little foreign
    currency-denominated exposure, it could in principle print its way out,
    but this is forbidden by its founding charter.  On the other hand, the
    EU Treaty explicitly, and in terms, forbids the form of bailouts used
    for Greece, Portugal and Ireland, but a little thing like their being
    blatantly illegal hasn’t prevented that from happening, so it’s not
    intrinsically obvious that its being illegal for the ECB to print its
    way out will prove much of a hurdle.)
  • They will recapitalise, and recapitalise their own banks, but declare an end to all bailouts.
  • There will be carnage in the market for Spanish banking sector bonds, as bondholders anticipate imposed debt-equity swaps.
  • This assumption will prove justified, as the Spaniards choose to
    over-ride the structure of current bond contracts in the Spanish banking
    sector, recapitalising a number of banks via debt-equity swaps.
  • Bondholders will take the Spanish Banking Sector to the European
    Court of Human Rights (and probably other courts, also), claiming
    violations of property rights. These cases won’t be heard for years. By
    the time they are finally heard, no-one will care.
  • Attention will turn to the British banks. Then we shall see…

h/t Anthony

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vote_libertarian_party's picture

So it's bullish for stocks...

astartes09's picture

You should get some CDS taken out on that fungus.

jeff montanye's picture

i want to know why Kickthecandowntheroad world is two words (bitch to type but i'm willing to learn).

Dr. Impossible's picture

"So it's bullish for stocks..." NO...it's bullish for lawyers.....

I am Jobe's picture

Get these guys to write the IPO.

CONGRATULATIONS, LINKEDIN! You Just Got Screwed Out Of $130 Million

http://www.businessinsider.com/linked-in-ipo-2011-5-b

MarketTruth's picture

Stocks? It is the golden rule...

He who has the gold makes the rules.

Frankie Carbone's picture

 

in a post 911 world, even bubonic plague and ebola are bullish for stocks. 

carbon's picture

  • Just Great
  • AT LEAST THE GRECCE HAVE THE CLEANEST
  • SEA WATER AND BEACHES IN EUROPE.
  • Every bank in Greece will instantly go insolvent.
  • The Greek government will nationalise every bank in Greece.
  • The Greek government will forbid withdrawals from Greek banks.

Urban Redneck's picture

All this was known before they jumped into bed with the ECB & IMF.

LaLiLuLeLo's picture

 

  • "We are out of money, but we can pay you in fish."

silly icelander, slavery is for PIIGS

http://youtu.be/ZowKXiPdk6c

 

RobotTrader's picture

Sound like it was written by Nic Lenoir.  Where has Nic been, lately, anyway??

dogbreath's picture

Robo

Did you see the hit Peter Schiff did on Mega Precious Metals claiming NIA was trying to pump and dump them.   The stock is near its 52wk lows and they have good properties and management.  There is also a spike in volume and there is somthing odd about this story.  I am not a trader but am familiar with many exploration companies.  You seem to have a impartial broad view of the markets, whats your take on this.

The reason I ask is Mega is drilling a 3000 meter hole on its headway property in Red Lake Ontario.  The stakes are high because they started the hole in early 2010 and there is no news or results yet.  They believe they are down dip from Gold Corp and so IF they hit it will be huge.   At the same time it could be just another 1.3 million dollar hole in the ground.  

 

oddjob's picture

Jim Rogers who runs MGP was mine manager for Goldcorp in Red Lake. Mega is a credible exploration company unlike 80% of the other stocks that list on the TSX-V.

dogbreath's picture

Thats part of my WTF reaction when Schiff claimed this stock was being P&D'd.  That ultra deep hole with no news????  

RockyRacoon's picture

Isn't that a big jump from Greece to Ireland?  There are too many possibilities to choose just one "next step" but I guess you had to start somewhere.

jeff montanye's picture

rocky, could the other side of this be that china learns from the mistakes of the u.s. and japan (1929 and 1989) and does NOT stay long equities but puts their (third) world record foreign exchange pile into gold, silver ...?

jeff montanye's picture

this is solipsistic but the u.s. did just that when it got gold at $20.67 and repriced it at $35.  fdr's first worst....  maybe most of what we've got left.  only 90% gold -- not really tradable.

Confuchius's picture

The USSA no longer sets the price of Gold, or Silver, or anything else.

Confuchius's picture

The USSA no longer sets the price of Gold, or Silver, or anything else.

M.B. Drapier's picture

Well, the Irish banks (and likely Irish sov. debt) are almost certainly toast very soon after any Greek default. Unless the EU really hurried to agree a huge Euro-devaluation spree in response, maybe. There would surely be other exciting things happening around the same too, but you can understand a UK newspaper focussing on Ireland - an Irish meltdown would be Bad News for the UK in several ways. If anything the piece doesn't jump directly enough from trouble in Ireland to trouble in the UK.

knukles's picture

Aaaaarraghhhhhhhhhhh!!
A major role for Goldilocks!
ECB prints their/Greece/EU way out of insolvency (just like the Fed, etc.)
So, since they (EBC) cannot buy their own debt that they issue, they issue debt to Goldman, have daily POMO like activities whereby they Don't Monetize their Own Debt, they just wash it through none other than the magical and wondrous..........

Oh, Jesus H Fucking Christ.
Another round of enrich the investment banker, at the expense of the public.

XenoFrog's picture

If you can't trust your central bank leadership, who can you trust? come on!

johnnynaps's picture

your federal politician?

 

jeff montanye's picture

i overheard someone explain what the federal reserve does:  "they protect our money".

desgust's picture

No.

Freegold. ECB. Reference Point Gold. Zoellick.

This article is too stupid.

BlackSea's picture

That comes after the currency collapse (hyperinflation) that these clowns introduce through their "helpfull" measures.

Misthos's picture

Silly fairy tales.  What have European policymakers done so far to give anyone the idea that EU Freegold will occur?  The architecture of the Euro is faulty.  You can back the Euro with all the gold you want, but the different economies in Europe can never share the same currency.   Surplus and Debt imbalances will always exist under a common currency without trade surplus recycling.

It's not just a paper debt issue, but a currency and political issue.  Europe is not one big happy family.  If ANOTHER truly exists - it's time for him to speak up.

The fact that Freegold/ECB has not happened yet proves that the system is broken.

michigan independant's picture

Instead of being told what to do from the cheerfull and usefull idiots I remember a chart of who is, and who not on task. Greek productivity was not that bad in the scope of things. I would be interested more on the ground intel on prices and reality of the common man since they are the glue to keep things togeather overall. As long debt equates wealth nothing will change. Getting tired of the left, right morons who are stiffling the moderate position as they are in the States. 

snowball777's picture

Careful, that kind of insightful thought will get you ostracized from all the best parties.

Yen Cross's picture

Finally! You live. GET IT DONE! The Blue Helmet is (BEST).

snowball777's picture

The UN?! Or are you a Canuck?

Yen Cross's picture

 Nope. Just a white boy on a trip in your neck of the woods. I hope you and your family are safe.

zuuuueri's picture

well, to make a long story short, the reality of the common man in greece is 

that he is being bled dry. 

Aside from the politically connected few, people tend to work hard and get very little money for it. A few exceptions exist, which of course get tons of attention- the public sector , for the most part, doesn't do jack shit, but the salaries there are pathetically small as well. 

There are a few strong unions in the private sector which also pull several times the

average income of the typical working man, and they get a lot of attention too. 

You'd think that everyone in greece was working one of those cushy jobs, but

of course, the truth is that very few do. 

 

In the urban scene, most people under the age of 35 are lucky if they get some 

job that's technically part time, but sometimes might offer the chance to work 50-60 hour

weeks just so that the boss renews thier contract. These people might make 800 euros a month, and if theyre lucky maybe get up to about 900. breaking a thousand a month is

out of reach for most. 

 

For the majority of the public sector flunkies, similar salaries prevail- 

most of them are in the 1000 a month range. 

 

there is a small slice of people, private and public sector, who have

worked their way through this 800-1000 euros barrier and either by

playing office politics (public sector) or busting their asses (private sector) 

manage to pull in between 2 and 3k a month. They are usually aware that 

they got where they are by their own ability and they are often very

aware that while they are comfortable, they are not in the actually

wealthy class. There are a lot of yuppy types in this segment, sadly, 

being told by foriegn television what they should want. 

 

Like the americans who make six digits but have negative net worth,

about half of the people in this middle class in greece fell for the

consumer fantasy, so they are in debt and basically fucked. The

other half are a bit more responsible and often had a lot of savings, 

maybe in some rental property, maybe more recently in the banking

system. Those people, represent wealth yet to be robbed, so

they _will_ be fucked, just as soon as someone get around to ripping

them off one way or another.

 

In the cities, supermarkets and all sorts of things are controlled by 

cartels, mostly foriegn owned now. It's cheaper to buy greek products in a

supermarket in germany where there is competition, than the same products in a

supermarket in greece, owned by the same parent company as the german one.. why? 

partly because they can. 

 

The self-employed are doubly screwed. Most business in greece is still under the shadow of

this medieval system of concessions and monopolies farmed out by politicians to their cronies or friends or maybe if they owe someone a favor. As a small 

independent (almost always just a family business, because to hire 

someone outside of the family is a sure way to bankrupt such

a fragile venture), not only are there heavy taxes to deal with (comparable 

to western europe), but there is an immense bureacracy set up 

partly to obstruct anyone from competing with these politically connected 

shitheads. Lets not forget how corrupt folks like tax inspectors are. 

They will size you up to get a feel for just how much they can squeeze

out of you, then make up some kind of numbers from pure fantasy,

just to force you to cut a deal with them. 

 

so, you have to deal with that shit, then you have to deal with the mountain of 

permits, paperwork, etc, all opportunities not so much even for

bribes to be collected by the people in the machinery, but to force you

to, in a sense, pay into the franchise of the bigshot who owns the

monopoly on whatever the hell is is youre trying to do. you can even

bribe officials , etc, but if you fail to pay into the bigshot's syndicate,

then you'll be busted for bribing an official, or something. 

 

At least this shitty system is so far not enforced so much by thugs as it is by 

courts and sheer paperwork. 

 

If you have any money left over to support your family, well, you are lucky. 

 

There are 'closed professions' like civil engineers, lawyers, etc, where

you have to somehow get a license from someone who already has one - inherit one or buy it - and those guys, along with the services they sell, often name their price. 

 

curiously doctors are not a closed profession- full on competition, and

private sector cash-customer healthcare costs are actually affordable, 

though maybe not if you're one of the poor SOBs making 800 euros a month.

 

smart, capable, ambitious people, if they dont have any real ties , family 

reasons, etc, to stay in greece, usually leave to find work abroad, paying 5x what 

they could get in greece. almost all of them would wish they could stay in greece, 

but they are so fed up with this shitty system, and the lack of oppurtunities, 

that they give up and move away. 

 

the actually rich people? the politically connected, or folks who were positioned well

and making money from back in the days when there was a healthier economy (like, in the 70s), those guys are living in another world entirely. Some of them are well off because of

actual genuine hard work, but the majority of them got their money from

the corrupt machinery of power. They're obviously not going to give

it back, and theyre obviously not going to squeeze themselves to 

pay off a government bond, either. 

 

There is a humongous gap between 30 years odl and 40 years old

in greece. people younger than early 30s know the system is full of

shit, they have no confidence at all that it works or will keep any

promises, they see all politicians as lying scumbags, and for the most

part they know the thing is falling apart around them. They are

largely not inclined to violence, either.  The demonstrations, etc, 

you see, are _so far_ organized. There was always a small hooligan

element in , big surprise, spoiled middle class kids, who would go

make some trouble to stick it to 'the man' (their parents, usually

in the middle class i mentioned), break some shit, spray some graffiti,

and then hang out in a cafe and brag to each other and on facebook

how they were resisting being oppressed. 

That was a common formula for a friday night around the university.

Someone would then call the cops, the cops would show up, they'd

all go through the drill, chase the kids for a few blocks , and then go home. 

the kids would then, go hang out and brag about how they were 

resisting being oppressed by cops. 

 

and every so often this might culminate in the recreational torching of

a macdo or maybe a foriegn bank. 

 

The demonstrations are not usually those kids, because demonstrations

aren't just a thing on the whim of the moment some friday night... 

most of the demonstrations are organized by unions and political parties, 

mostly, so far, on the left, and mostly they are about people bitching

and moaning to protect some bit of their share of the gravy train. 

yes, sometimes it does get out of hand. 

 

when the actual hard working sucker making 800 a month gets 

pissed enough to start smashing things, look out, because the whole

country would go up in flames. As these people are increasingly

unemployed, some of the tension in the streets is beginning to be

genuine and not just organized. This is not organized by any parties,

though there is a growing awareness that the huge about of illegals

in the country working the bottom-rung below minimum wage jobs 

are there to drive down the price of labor at the low end, and i would

expect to see more tension between them (also now out of work in

large numbers, but not yet leaving the country in large numbers) and

unemployed greeks. 

 

 

The attitude in the country has changed immensely in the past year

or two. everyone, whether he's a 'worker' making 800 a month

or whether he's a small time self-employed businessman or a farmer

or whatever, knows that the system is hopelessly corrupt, cannot be fixed, 

and is bleeding them dry to pay for it all, while behind them the banks

loaned fantasy printing press money to them with the premeditated goal of foreclosing on them anyway.. and they almost all agree that the main goal of the euro is

to allow germany to dominate the rest of europe, and that it's a bad deal

for greece. almost everyone who doesnt directly depend on the

status quo knows and says this, and they are all just waiting for

the moment when it breaks. Announcing default is what that means for 

a lot of them. 

 

Greek police will go on strike if they are ordered to really use force 

to control the population- the violence you see so far is mild compared to other

countries and , really, genuinely, the police in greece are up and down

the ranks , not trained, indoctrinated, or expected to employ force against 

the population. When two years ago a cop shot a kid in a demonstration,

even though the court found that he fired in self defence, the cop

went to jail for murder. You don't find cops brought to account like

this in other countries either. This does not put a smile on the faces of the

empire-builders, but they can't change it overnight either. 

 

the army? if the army was ordered to use force against the population... 

the army would probably gently assist the government in abdicating, like what

happened in egypt recently.

 

 

Orly's picture

Thanks for that perspective, z.

binky's picture

Happiness is a warm printing press.

Smiddywesson's picture

"Isn't that a big jump from Greece to Ireland?  There are too many possibilities to choose just one "next step" but I guess you had to start somewhere."

I'm with Rocky, it's impossible to know the details, but then again, when a big bag of sh*t is trod upon, it's likely to spurt it fragrent putresence in the direction of the weakest point confining it.  That could be Ireland.

So much to dwell upon.  These are indeed exciting time for people hedged in physical gold...FIRE!!!

Just kidding.

mt paul's picture

Question please

what is the average length and interest % on the national debt ...

figure the" hedge" is the place for honest intel

thanx ..

Manthong's picture

Preposterous - That's about as crazy as if a single company like AIG could take down the whole US financial system if it went broke.

It's not as if Greece is systemically important to the EU or anything.

Nobody is crazy enough to let one entity become that critical to the whole system.