This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Here Is What To Watch Out For Today In Addition To GDP (Consensus At 2.6%, Range 1.0%-4.0%)
With everyone focusing on today's GDP, it is easy to ignore the other relevant economic data to be released in the one and a half hour block before 10am. In order of appearance, they are: Q2 GDP,the employment cost index, the Chicago PMI, and the final UMichigan consumer sentiment. Below is a summary from a rather bearish Goldman Sachs (which expects a 2.0% GDP print in 15 minutes) on each of these data points.
8:30: GDP for Q2….slower growth and a deeper recession? The first cut on second-quarter growth should show further slowing from the 2.7% rate now on record for the first quarter, though with significant increases in both residential and nonresidential investment (the former due to the transitory effects of the homebuyer tax credit). Trade should be a big drag.
The report comes alongside annual revisions to the past three years that make us less confident in the second quarter call than on most others, because figures for the first quarter will also change. The gap that developed between real GDP and real gross domestic income (GDI) during the recession suggests that the revision to real GDP will most likely show a deeper peak-to-trough setback than the 3.8% now on record.
On GDP, GS: +2.0%; median forecast (of 81): +2.6%, ranging from +1.0% to +4.0%; last (Q1 third estimate) +2.7%.
On the GDP price index, GS: +1.0%; median forecast (of 42): +1.1%, ranging from +0.4% to +1.5%: +1.1%.
On the PCE core index: GS: +1.0%; median forecast (of 20): +1.0%, ranging from +0.3% to +1.4%; last: +0.7%.
8:30: Employment cost index for Q2…a return to smaller gains? Figures for the first quarter were skewed to the high side by a large increase in benefits. We expect the second-quarter data to be more consistent with the moderating trend that had been evident before this latest report.GS: +0.4%; median forecast (of 54): +0.5%, ranging from +0.3% to +0.7%; last +0.6%.
9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index for July…slowing? Virtually all surveys for July show a slowing in industrial momentum. (Yesterday’s Kansas City Fed index was an exception.) We and most other forecasters expect slower activity in the Chicago area as well, though recovery in the auto sector should keep the index from dropping sharply.
GS: 57.5; median forecast (of 53): 56, ranging from 50 to 60; last 59.1.
10:00 (9:55 to subscribers): Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment for July (final)…confirming that sharp decline? The preliminary results for July showed a sharp setback in confidence. Normally, the final index does not move much from the preliminary, and this is reflected in a median forecast that is only ½ point above the preliminary reading (after a 9.5-point drop). For what they are worth, other indexes (Conference Board, ABC) have both deteriorated in the two weeks since the preliminary Michigan survey was taken. The median expectation for inflation five to ten years ahead ticked up to 2.9% in the preliminary report from 2.8% previously.
Median forecast (of 58): 67, ranging from 57.5 to 73; last 66.5 (July prelim).
»
- 3070 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
If there was any sort of realism in the BEA data, the GDP print would be negative. It's obvious the economy has been contracting for a long, long time now. The private sector is hurting bad.
Range 1-4%. LMAO. Do I sense some skeptism?
You also have the ECRI WLI today..
the ECRI is only a noteworthy indicator when it is going up. Expect to to see this given absolutely no mention in the MSM today.
Thanks for pointing that out. I cannot find one economic calendar that has the ECRI on the schedule. WTF?
Anyone know of one online? I'm at a complete loss so far.
-10.7
You can find it here:
http://www.businesscycle.com/resources/
Thats a lot of data that will be ignored come 1PM today as the bots are set to auto pilot and the traders round up the hookers for the drive to the Hamptons.
Hi Tyler...these data are important....but can u tell why the Baltic dry index has been rising for the past couple of days....
Even dead cats bounce.
Haaa! BS figures from the BEA as usual. No truth in them at all.
2.4%. craptacular! lol
Compare and contrast reality - http://www.consumerindexes.com/index.html, with the bullshit that is the BEA - http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/glance.htm
The Gestapo would be proud.
i cant make anything out of this figure of 2.4 % ....what does it suppose to mean now???
we got the weakness everyone was looking for, so they sell stocks preopen based on this? Where do these lemmings come from?
One has to keep up appearances. We can't have 30 days of success in a row (unless you're Goldman Sachs) - that's....
inhuman.
u mean Non- human...they r aliens anyway
Didn't Boeing get a crap ton of orders about a month or two ago? I wonder how many of those orders that were counted in the GDP, will be canceled without ever being built.
don't forget about the 20% revision (downward) that should quietly slip out next quarter. No one will report it though, because it's old news.
Just have to keep looking forward for the next big number - anything suitable for "extend and pretend" pumps.
GBPUSD upside continues, since daily and weekly charts remain bullish.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com/about