Here Is Why The ISM Will Drop Below 50 In The Coming Months

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Thu, 09/16/2010 - 09:42 | 585074 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

Is this Goldman that I'm reading?

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 11:13 | 585323 Chemba
Chemba's picture

if you paid attention, and dropped the unhelpful bias, you would know that Hatzius/Tilton have been the most bearish economists since 2002

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 09:46 | 585083 Number 156
Number 156's picture

Trying to gin up the numbers before the elections?

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 09:49 | 585089 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yeah Goldman wants to hang with the cool kids now. Goldman analysts wanna sound like TD and show how really hip and right they are, so ya know you can trust them again with your wealth. 

"Hey everybody listen up: we're not those borgs from Wall Street who just tell you to 'buy,buy,buy'! Na'an! We're the New Kool dudes and dudettes who say stuff like 'bitchez!'. Honest!" 

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 09:49 | 585091 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Got to keep levitating until redemption dates pass and here comes GS playing for the other team now? What happened to our well knit conspiracy?

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 09:49 | 585092 shushup
shushup's picture

if the government controlled the last ISM number then can't they control the next one also? I agree that I'm sick of all the government(s) intervention in the markets and the economy.

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 09:57 | 585103 DarkAgeAhead
DarkAgeAhead's picture

Seems like Goldman just wants to talk up the bad, to force the US Gov't to issue the Next Big QE.  They'll say whatever makes them the most $$.  What they say, might just coincidentally also be true sometimes.

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 09:59 | 585104 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

Pardon me for reposting this from a previous thread.

Speaking on how to dilute a currency,check out this pretty hilarious clip starring comic duo Laurel & Hardy:

A scene onboard a train where a pair of confidence tricksters demonstrate how to turn a $1 into a $10 bill using 'INFLATO'

A Haunting We Will Go:

Mr Hardy:"Gentleman,but isn't that counterfeiting"

FFWD to 14.40 mins for this scene.

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 10:04 | 585125 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Based on this, I'm expecting a suprise upside in the ISM.

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 10:05 | 585130 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Philly Fed -0.7 vs +3.8 expected.

The report also gives insight as to the employment numbers...cutting or work hours instead of cutting workers:

"Firms reported near steady employment this month but lower average work hours for existing employees. The percentage of firms reporting increases in employment (18 percent) narrowly edged out the percentage reporting decreases (16 percent). The index for employment was slightly positive this month, increasing 5 points from its negative reading in August. Indicative of weaker activity, more firms reported declines in average work hours for existing employees (30 percent) than reported increases (8 percent).

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 10:09 | 585143 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

It would sure be nice to see a chart on SS collections wouldn't it?

The crinkling of the tinfoil on my head tells me it would paint a LITTLE bit different picture than the one we're being fed.

Part time jobs, Bitchez!!!

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 10:06 | 585131 cnbcsucks
cnbcsucks's picture

Brian Sack appears to be very busy right here at 10:00.  Look at the 5 minute candle!!! 

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 10:57 | 585292 mephisto
mephisto's picture


Exactly my thoughts.

When did GS start paying atention to Hussman, who has been calling ISM < 50? And did they read the bit about Wall Street advice being the most dangerous part of the investment universe, bar none?

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 10:07 | 585139 msorense
msorense's picture

I agree with a <50 ISM.  I run a manufacturing company that has done nothing but grow steadily from July 09 - Aug 10 but new orders in late Aug early Sept. are definitely down (~30+%) for us.

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 10:14 | 585160 bada boom
bada boom's picture

Not to sound to cynical, but philly fed stayed below 0 and the market rallies. (I know, the day is not done)


Thu, 09/16/2010 - 10:25 | 585195 Tarheel
Tarheel's picture

"not one economist had predicted a number as high" this statement carries no weight since American economist are the worst on earth. They should re-evaluate the curriculam!

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 14:31 | 585899 Manbearpig
Manbearpig's picture

And this differs from the economists of which country, exactly?

Thu, 09/16/2010 - 10:59 | 585298 old_turk
old_turk's picture

Larry Summers has already sent an e-mail to the ISM people letting them know that if they want to stay employed the August number will be 60 and September 64 with October progged in at 70.

Let it be e-mailed, let it be done.

There, next!!!

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 05:56 | 631612 Herry12
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