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Jeremy Grantham Guarantees Gold will Crash
h/t Stephen
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Value is contextualization of utilization properties in any environment which has at least one other non-referring contextualization. You need a three entity environment to assess value. Thats the theoretical part of Value.
Also you need to subtract derivatives and excess liquidity and average inflation, supply, demand and assess [subjectively] degree of speculation. Basically gold has 0 value [extremely objectively], and its current value, I am, afraid [and I am really trying in this] can not be calculated.
What Cheeky said, but also:
Nothing has inherent value. Gold has value as a store of wealth and a medium of exchange because that is how it has been utilized by us (man) for the better part of our recorded history (and probably then some).
The reason gold as an asset class has tremendous value in these times is because peoples' faith in other instruments of money and wealth are ebbing downwards. Gold is merely recapturing its historic role as money and wealth.
Study history.
I am Chumbawamba.
the inherent value is in its function as 'money', not as an investment. a fair accounting unit that cannot be run off a printing press. it takes a severely screwed up, unfair system for people to find continually increasing value in metal over government promises and this exactly what we have. how this all plays out is not predictable, but people who are buying PMs as a way to diversify out of fiat money have exactly the right idea.
This guy is the definition of moran.
"I don't like gold because it has no value and I don't know what it's worth."
Yeah, it's not worth the shit still stuck inside your asshole you complete and utter douchebag. It isn't worth the spittle you slathered all over the crowd as you uttered your A-MA-ZING words predicting that lumber will be the asset class to be in as lumber mills find themselves in the greatest slump in recorded history. It is worth the copious amounts of cocaine you consume that leads you to make such IN-CRED-I-BLE predictions.
Fucking fuck. Where do these people come from? How did this guy EVER make any money for ANYONE?
I am Chumbawamba.
Jeremy who?
Wow, I didn't know Jim Jones was still alive.
looks like one of jeremy's fans (leo) or jeremy himself has junked you. td should add a "flag as gold" link (which is the anti-junk)
Watch your mouth Chumba. This guy will do a Price-Earnings analysis on you like his SLAVE OWNING ancestors did and you'll go from house slave to field slave just like that.
This post would be funny if it wasn't sadly and sickly true what this guys approach is about.
It depends on the time frame. Short to intermediate term I can see gold pull back. Long term trend will be up. Short term it depends what type of investors bought paper gold. Physical gold buyers are long term and that portion of the market will steadily gain. Physical buyers aren't buying and selling on short and intermediate trends. Gold paper is a different story. If much of the gold run up is by paper speculators we could have a quick correction soon. I'll be buying on pullbaks. Until the over leveraged gold paper gets exposed, paper buyers will continue to influence the price.
USA monetary base = $2200 billion ; SUPPOSED USA gold supply = 8300 tons ; == $8283/oz http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE
It is amazing how the talking heads poo poo gold in unison and are all excited to call "bubble". Why don't they do that with other asset classes? stocks? bonds? RE? etc.? where were they screaming buy buy buy at the march lows last year? Instead Cramer and company were screaming to pull out your next 5 yrs worth of cash needed out of the market. But today they pimp out all the huge gains since the lows. They are always Monday morning quarterbacks.
Why do they poo poo gold? Gold represents the antithesis to banksters and the financial ponzi scheme. The money elite despise gold and the little guy buying physical and continually opting out of the financial elite's personal ATM machine.
Its hilarious when CNBS talking heads think THEY themselves are a part of the moneyed elite. When in fact they are butts of many jokes by traders. Useful idiots they are.
There is nothing about gold in this report on gold other than the (pathetic) final paragraph. It is all Jeremy Grantham ego-stroking.
Woooo, Grantham doesn't like gold. Give me one Goddamned reason to pay attention to that jackhole. His track record on other topics is entirely irrelevant to me.
Good luck with your GOLD guys. I sold the last of mine today. I was buying regularly when almost everyone hated it in 2001, 2002 & 2003 (Avg price: $343). It's been tough to hold it at times, but my internal alarm finally went off and I'm out. Too many people love it now. I'm not comfortable with that. I really don't care if it goes higher. If it does, good for you folks who ride it out.
I am more interested in ridding myself of all remaining debts as well as growing more food and buying ammo. Gold isn't going to do SH*T for me when TSHTF in the next several years. All I need to worry about is protecting my property. Having a hunk of metal won't mean jack to me........
sure you sold today, of course, HA HA HA
Good luck with your dollars, guess what I sold all my dollars today
I've got a piece of advice for you zombie apocalypse madmaxers. Move to mexico, like Juarez.
See if you live a WEEK with your guns and ammo "defending" your property. I mean put yourself into a situation where you actually HAVE to defend it, like start selling drugs or something. If you last a week, I'll give you every dollar I have.
Anybody thinking they have a snowflake's chance in HELL of defending any land against the types of maniacs out there who are in NUMBERS is a goddamned loon far nuttier than the dopeyest of goldbugs.
I mean, damn, son...do you pay any attention to the favelas in Brazil, to Mexico, to Argentina, to Afghanistan? Do you have any clue what even 3 or 4 disgruntled ex marines would do to you and your family?
Gold is so you can GTFO and go to a functioning society somewhere else. Argentina is already collapsed - gold still has value there. You could move to any of a DOZEN collapsed societies TODAY and trade gold for things of value. If the shit hits the fan and the zombie apocalypse unfolds, nothing, repeat NOTHING you own will matter. All your guns won't stop cholera or a basic infection or a dust bowl or a flood or the business end of an Apache's main gun deciding you're an enemy of "the party."
Someone feel free to tell me if I am oversimplifying here. I see only two possible scenarios:
1) Central banks inflate away excessive debts; precious metals rise for obvious reasons associated with inflation.
2) Central banks/governments allow deflation; the real value of developed nation debts increases, causing massive bank failures and more sovereign defaults; the forced restructurings and monetary chaos causes investors to take refuge in PMs, causing them to rise.
Am I missing anything? Other than a successful secret plan to suppress prices, how can PMs fail to appreciate in real terms? It seems to me they will do well whether we see inflation or deflation (an interesting debate with smart people on both sides).
The question is how much higher, NOT! whether Gold has Value.
http://goldprice.org/30-year-gold-price-history.html
Lets say that Gold $1,250 ='s Gold 1980's price of $400.
With the historic high being $800(ish)...
So for conversational purposes we are half way to the all time high(ish)...
My concerns are that Goldman and Cramer are now pro-gold, that is a Bad Omen in and of it self... but aside from my gut telling me thats Bad... I must consider how sucessful the Governments of the World have been in the past supressing the Value of Gold... Risk verse reward at $1,250 an oz.?
How high will Gold go? I dont know? but what I do, that people hate... is discuss the downside potential, thusly all the out of work used car salesmen that now sell Gold get all hot and bothered...
So, I am happy to hear your thoughts in a balanced and well thought debate...
Gold just hit headline news....so completely agree with JG....and he alone with the 2% bears on gold
Call me desperate. Sticks 'n' Stones....please throw the shiny yellow stones at me. Pretty please?!?!?
Hardly a bubble!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_1V7wnZxPqok/S9VVq1Grr2I/AAAAAAAAMuQ/KpQUtOVebw...
RE the land vs gold
I have the option on 160 acres Iowa land 60/40 beans/corn this year. Then I have my miniscule PM holdings. If I buy the land and SHTF I don't know if I can hide the sale of the crops from the gov. The locals will come for the taxes. All I get for free is deer meat. If I have to leave I may own it but won't get the value out. At least I can take the PM's with me( as long as the tires have air) and start over where its warm.
Gosh, someone gets it.
I know another "compound" guy who talks about collapse coming and how he has his little hydroponics thing and chickens and all that.
I tell EVERYONE, and I will say this to everybody here - WATCH DR ZHIVAGO.
This was the story of a doctor who had his town house seized by the Party and had a sign affixed to his country home's door: "Property of the Party, do not enter, penalty death." His OWN HOUSE. This was what happened after the Revolution. They forced Zhivago to work for the Army, grabbed his ass right off the road. A nice story, great movie, a classic - and that sort of stuff routinely happened even as far back as 1918.
The government can seize everything you have that it can find; it's really as simple as that. You CANNOT, repeat CANNOT defend your land unless YOU are willing to become a savage just like the warring tribes in Peshawar, who will kill and die and chop off children's heads in order to win. Is that you?
Ask yourself that - do you have a fucking chance in hell against the type of societal dysfunction you're predicting? Are you the type of person who could slaughter a family? I mean there are legions of people who are, right across the border. Happens every week in Mexico, some policeman's head sawn off and his body found somewhere else. Whole families gunned down to prove a point, babies shot pointblank. Is that you?
These are the type of people you'd be defending yourself against. Nevermind our OWN armed services, some of whom got their rocks off opening fire with automatic weapons onto streets filled with civilians. Was I the ONLY one who watched the video when ZH showed that Apache sending 20mm CANNON fire into a crowd of soft targets??!?! I mean, last I heard you weren't supposed to use .50 cal on people but here they are lighting up a group of what turned out to be cameramen with a 20mm gun! Do you think they won't kill YOU and everyone near you if it suits them?
Anyone planning to stand their ground like The Postman is a FOOL. Mobility in an apocalypse is your best asset, along with luck.
Are you trying to scare people or just freaking out.
Sounds close to the truth too me...
All of you high moral ground people and your book club members don't have a very solid grasp on what lights out will truly look like...
I pray for all of you mouth pieces... professional writers fighting the power! sounds all pretty there sugar britches, but what you are writing verse your realities of living in the aftermath of what you pontificate about?! DUHHHHH!
Well suffice to say that I have real concerns about your survivability, Martial Law or other… and when the markets shut down, that’s what you’re going to get… The reality is the people with power, whether the markets are functioning or NOT! will fight to maintain power, or order… maybe a more palatable way to describe you being under martial law for your own protection.
Austerity has equaled nothing more than destruction too the markets, good! Great! Destroy the markets! Martial Law is a wayyyyyyyyyyyyy better quality of life than you have now… (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXfXuk6aWJc&NR=1&feature=fvwp )
So, either you are Praying for the End… thusly part of the rapture crowd... or you are hoping for the destruction of America… but either way, Treason in my book… so here’s to hoping the lights don’t go out and if they do that all of you Treasonous fucks get what’s coming to you…
Yep definitely freaking out.
Trav 777 +1000
this is exactly the truth that has to be faced and dealt with for most people IMO.
if / when it gets really bad TPTB wont hesitate for a second to turn the 20mm on the public, after all they cant even be arsed to officially count civilian deaths in foreign wars.
and for every video that makes youtube how many innocent people do you think have been splashed across the floor without posthumous fame?
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