Here's Why Italy's CDS Are The Biggest Risk For The Eurozone

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Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:36 | 1438210 mayhem_korner
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So with France in the mix, do we get F-PIIGS...

...and with the US, do we get FU-PIIGS?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:49 | 1438267 camaro68ss
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bail them bitchez out! we need to rally on!

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:02 | 1438322 Highrev
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Nice to see some focus (someone send the rating agencies a note on the subject).

It really helps.

As does objectivity.

Speaking of which, have we seen any ZH mention of the extremely light volume on today's melt "down"?

 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 18:19 | 1438510 Don Quixotic
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No. I asked about this earlier as well. The slow pace of trading was downright suspicious today. While it may just be coincidental or a problem with my rig I'll also point this out: the most basic (and free) tools are not reporting today's volume right now. This may change momentarily, but Stockcharts.com shows no volume bar for $spx. Google Finance shows yesterday's volume for .inx. Yahoo Finance will show that volume was bottomed out for the whole day except a spike right at the open but will not show the aggregate volume for the day. Like I said, this may just be a temporary something-or-other and I don't want to get my tinfoil hat out just yet; but, it's annoying the hell out of me since I watched the volume all day and it didn't even come close to being even nearly almost 1 billion shares traded for the S&P. Furthermore, JPM and C (I'm sure there may be others that I didn't catch as well) had volume that was laughably below their averages. 

Someone, please say something about this. Tyler, please tell me what happened today. I don't have the tools to investigate, but I do have the eyes to observe it. It just didn't feel right. Mr. Tyler Durden, I wait for word about this mystery. Please illuminate. I am inthe dark.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 18:33 | 1438542 Don Quixotic
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OK, let me retract that partially. Stockcharts now has volume up there, but it is significantly higher than what they were showing throughout the market day. Apparently, Google Finance and Stockcharts had the same glitchy info. Volume was not actually that bad for the S&P. 

Apologies.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 19:11 | 1438631 Youri Carma
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In Hedge Fund terms Fuck the PIIG's.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 22:07 | 1438969 old naughty
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you left out UK...so it is FUUK-PIIGS

Sat, 07/09/2011 - 16:01 | 1440115 snowball777
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You left out US...so it is FUUK-US-PIIGS.

Sat, 07/09/2011 - 06:54 | 1439327 Nout Wellink
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If you add China and Kameroon as well, you know what is going to happen to Europe :-)

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:37 | 1438216 carbonmutant
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Berlusconi attack on Tremonti is the tip of the iceberg...

 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 18:07 | 1438489 Arius
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w/ tremonti's heart condition thats a dangerous game he is playing ... a smart tax guy would call it quit ...

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:39 | 1438224 mayhem_korner
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At some point, isn't some nation going to just call the whole slow-motion-train-wreck off and go postal via invasion or carpet bombing?

Sat, 07/09/2011 - 14:09 | 1439866 Non Passaran
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If they are led by geniuses such as yourself that, sir, is indeed a possibility.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:39 | 1438227 treemagnet
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Does each country get their respective "15 minutes" or do the dominoes just start falling?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:45 | 1438249 carbonmutant
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They gridlock internally over how to allocate dwindling resources...

and then like a top that's lost its spin they fall over.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:40 | 1438230 Misean
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"the bond vigilantes decided to go straight to the gateway to Europe's core."

The allies tried that. It didn't work out so well...

"the biggest surge in recent months in net notional has not been at Italy, nor Spain, nor any of the other PIIGS, but.. France."

Yeah, that route worked out a bit better...just sayin...

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 21:26 | 1438885 AccreditedEYE
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+1

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:49 | 1438266 AldousHuxley
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Euro-peons, don't hate on slant eyed Chinese for now they own you.

 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:09 | 1438350 coppertop
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its like racism

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 23:00 | 1439046 jeff montanye
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you mean it's.

Sat, 07/09/2011 - 13:35 | 1439796 the tower
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No-one owns Europe... you still do get it do you...

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:53 | 1438276 Atomizer
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A little background music while your reading article.

Johnny Cash - Ring of fire

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lhf9U5Wf3Q&feature=related

 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:55 | 1438293 Caviar Emptor
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But but...can't we lie our way out of this one too?

Say what you will, but we got some of the world's great liars assembled in the ECB and the Fed these days. Hehe even the politicians get baffled! 

So with the combined lying power of the ECB, Fed, IMF, Euro and US politicians, you would think we could just get through another debt crisis one more time

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:13 | 1438367 Ghordius
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Yes! What is economy: the cooperation of individuals toward a lie: a goal in a future that might exist...
Good liars vs trembling lips...

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:23 | 1438391 Caviar Emptor
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Yes! But the success of the economy depends on the ability of the liars to stay one step ahead of the truth and the skeptics. So we need really, really olympic level liars to have a great economy. We're in trouble now because these guys started believing their own lies in 2005-2008. "The fundamentals of our economy are sound". And Bernanke thought he could have prevented the Great Depression from his computer, so he got overconfident. Now they realize they have to start lying really well again

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:27 | 1438403 coppertop
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vague, nonspecific, disorganized

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 22:59 | 1439044 jeff montanye
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vague and nonspecific are near synonyms.  redundant.

Sat, 07/09/2011 - 16:00 | 1440111 snowball777
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Or just billions upon billions of really stupid sheeple.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:55 | 1438297 GeneMarchbanks
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Who were the underwriters on the Italian CDS? I'm actually asking, not being coy. Surely the US banks have some exposure here,no? Tyler?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:10 | 1438354 Milstar
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It's almost impossible to say without some entity making an annoucement that they are holding the bag.  That will never happen.  CDS's can be created and then sold to other entities so who knows who has what until they are cleared.

Sat, 07/09/2011 - 15:58 | 1440107 snowball777
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The president would like to order a pepperoni and mushroom cloud. ;) (My dad worked at Teledyne back in the day)

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:56 | 1438298 baby_BLYTHE
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It's hard to keep sinking ships afloat

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 18:04 | 1438479 disabledvet
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Awwwww.

Sun, 07/10/2011 - 17:53 | 1441997 rajat_bhatia
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lol

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 18:23 | 1438517 dearth vader
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Not when they're already stranded.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 14:21 | 1444732 mediavirus
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Still they'll sink in all the quicksand :)

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:57 | 1438304 NotApplicable
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I wonder how much of the France CDS increase has to do with failing to conquer Libya?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:59 | 1438312 Caviar Emptor
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Look, US consumers, if you promise to max out all your credit cards at the mall this weekend, then we promise you we'll take care of the banking booboos

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:02 | 1438324 bobbydelgreco
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this is huge!! western civilzation started in italy & its end begins in italy

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:42 | 1438444 richard in norway
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someone said that about greece last week

 

anyhow it's so euro centric

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:09 | 1438340 THE DORK OF CORK
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I always thought Italians had low private debt levels !

Whats the total private debt in Italy ?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 19:01 | 1438614 NotApplicable
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Doesn't that just mean they have an extra pound of flesh to donate to the cause?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 23:04 | 1439050 jeff montanye
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also they say their central bank holds a fair slug of gold.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

Sun, 07/10/2011 - 17:59 | 1442004 rajat_bhatia
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2451  Ton  = $110,306,470,680.00

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 18:05 | 1438485 disabledvet
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Huge. Like their love.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:10 | 1438355 coppertop
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its tough to engineer cross collateral loans in Bulgarian

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:25 | 1438398 Traianus Augustus
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I want to give a big round of applause to the Markit team that posts their Peripheral Sovereign CDS Pricing table on FT Alphaville!  They are clearly doing their part by not updating the spreads all day today.  I wonder if they got a call from Timmy to just stale it and call it an early weekend!!!

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:25 | 1438400 YesWeKahn
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Bernanke will print all that, no worry.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:41 | 1438440 TheGoodDoctor
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No UK?

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