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Hey IWM, What Was That?
Quiet, quiet, quiet... Boom.
Lots of odd trading in the SPY-IWM pair all day today.
And while the SPY - IWM delta is where it was at the beginning of the month, the monthly level masks some serious daily turbulence.
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Just what higher beta is supposed to be, I guess :-)
Sometimes I think you guys are looking to hard for conspiracies. Looking at spikes on the one minute graphs.
do we really need to mop the floor with you; i mean its fun to beat you morons with facts and logic and reasoning etc etc; but it gets boring after a while; I'm sure someone will sum it up nice in those four sweet words GFYS
No one is fooled by the fool in Chief. We understand the game in DC and it is well nigh done.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
I'd like to suggest to Tyler and Zero Hedge that the MO of having a chart + terse sarcastic commentary would sometimes be enhanced by also including a more plain English description of what is so interesting/funny/terrifying.
I kind of like it when it's just put up there for the reader to decide.
Bulls may read it as bullish.
Bears may read it as bullshit.
Others may say to themselves: "if it's a bad tick, then why the fuck in this computer driven day and age can't it be corrected within a few minutes or even seconds?"
Interpretive market watching.
+5
hope you've seen this before... had to do a websearch on your handle to see if there were any pornstars with that name (all i got was this image and gwyneth paltrow). http://www.majhost.com/gallery/kolelarson/Fark/dixie.jpeg
That's exactly where it came from.
Too bad there's no audio of the anchor screeching "and congratulations to Dixie Normous, ah...today's ...ah....winner."
Yourself is one word, douchebag.
i am still trying to figure out what the conspiracy was in yesterdays XFL chart :)
it was either a typo or an amusing linkage to the Xtreme Football League which went belly-up only a few years after Vince McMahon (CEO of WWE) started it. It had players named "He Hate Me," amongst other amusing .... oh whatever. Figure out the rest. But it was probably a typo.
Best football games i ever been to. course vegas having its first pro team had nothing to do with that opinion... =)
Show off - just because marla lets you post charts....
I was of course being facetious wrt XFL....
tis very interesting...
i liked your bond call.
We have some extremely angry folks walking around right now. Angry at both parties. Angry at politicians...bureaucrats and lobbyists.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
Andy; the music there stops when crude hits 70$ ... it rose 3.66% today and that was my mark to load up on the shorts again. And when the music stops, there is only one chair for all those economic sectors to sit on. Go to HSI and look at Industrial and Financial Components. you'll see your 2% handle on the 10-yr very very soon. china is a black whole trapped in the twilight zone ( no strong domestic consumption to offset the loss in the US and EU, and easy credit all poured into RE and equities ).
Most futs brokers offer HSI contracts....
Inflation is an event that may occur 3 to 4 years form now. Stagflation (associated with commodity prices) is the best you can get to between now then. And commodities (except for nattie) trade like an asset class and are subject to the same ramp up on liquidity as equities. Thus, they are not great barometers (except for nattie) of true supply/demand.
To much slack in the system, no pricing power, wage and job deterioration, residential real estate still reverting to the mean (with the risk that it exceed on the down side?) and CRE just starting the mean reversion process. I see the 10 year with a 2% handle as a decent call.
I hate crowds, and am skeptical of consensus.
And unless (or until?) the puppet masters can actually get the money (cash that the consumer can spend on crap they don't need) into the hands of the puppets, there will be no velocity to the liquidity that has/is being provided.
Rosie had some decent comments on economists, kool- aid drinkers and deflation today. This is just the highlight reel form ftalphaville.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/18/67511/just-because-the-conventional-economists-are-drinking-the-kool-aid-doesnt-mean-you-have-to/
maybe you are right. maybe you are wrong. who really knows at this point?
Andy,
during the last panic the 10-year bond went to 2.06 yield. My argument against a repeat is simple supply and demand. For such a low yield there needs to be a huge demand for the bond. Current auctions speak against that.
2% for 10 years makes only sense in a long deflation; the debt load is in such a deflation unbearable and the state will go broke.
Hang in there, dude. What's with marking it junk?
There is the possibility that this had nothing to do with pomo, the Fed, or any other means of central planning.
That's Chris Dodd's campaign money hitting the tape. LMAO!!
bad print
SPY Selling on strength today:
http://etfdailynews.com/blog/?p=5503
Check out the 1 minute on gld on friday at 1:30 when the FDIC went broke. That was a wacking from you know who.
Is that print still showing?
I'm not seeing it on my charts.
not on my charts.
The market is being manipulated upwards and provided support to such an extent that it is laughable. As Todd Harrisson says... never underestimate the motivation of a cornered animal (he doesn't say who the animal is... but I like the phrase because it reflects my analysis, in which the animal is... the US government and the US TBTF banks).
Geithner often reminds me of a cornered animal.
perfect synopsis. The sad part is listening to the bulltards (to include all those reaidng sell side research & "technicals") rationalize why everything is indeed getting better. The latest meme: why shouldn't the markets be where they were pre lehman (weren't s/p estimates at that point in the $100 range?) It is a bit like having a friend who compulsivily exaggerates. After a while you just let it slide feeling an inward disgust stoke contempt stroke embarrasment for them as they misrepresent not out of malice or ignorance rather evolution and their unfortunate shortchanging.
the SPY accumulated volume differential (5-day) is an absolute disgrace today. What a joke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm getting a kick out of CNN Money these days (hey, it's just where I go to check the ticker). They seem to be literally alternating the headlines every other day:
"Market bounces on consumer hopes"
"Market falls on consumer fears"
I think it's hilarious that news sites feel they have to try and identify the "one thing" that is effecting markets that day and put it in a headline. Nobody has a clue what is moving this market day to day.
Not correct. Few have a clue what is moving the market because they are the ones that move the market.
Monday and Friday were "liquidity events".
This market's up on Lipgloss and down on Drano.
I don't have that "blip" on my Thomson ONE chart. Could be a bad data feed from your vendor.
Jack:
"We dance round in a circle and suppose,
but the secret sits in the middle and knows."
At least I know what Cheeky Bastard is saying with GFYS. But wait...yourself is only one word. Shouldn't it be GFY or GFYAH (no wait, asshole is one word also). GFYA
This is so much fun!
I don't get it?
i assure you that at least in NY, it is GFY....very common usage here.
D.O.D.
Neither do I. That's my point.
I don't get 75% of what is posted here. But the good news is I can now figure out 25%.
This site has a very high learning curve, which I find very intriguing.
Well sometimes when your faking you 61.8 percent retracement you get a little lazy and have to really dig deep and come up with something really intense to keep the show going.
http://www.gata.org/node/7692
Thanks. Direct link to the report is here:
http://www.gata.org/files/PrecisionCapitalMarketManipulation-08-02-2009.pdf
"With record funding requirements by Treasury, looming refinancing disasters in CRE, massive upcoming defaults in prime, Alt-A, and credit cards, waning enthusiasm for the US Dollar; [Bernanke] can ill-afford the economic meltdown that a massive repatriation of US Treasuries and Dollars would have. Once long term yields reach a critical level (which we do not know and would be difficult to estimate), the FR becomes locked in a money printing cycle that will ultimately become hyperinflationary and result in FR having to buy every US Bond, Note, and Bill in order to prevent economic Armageddon that comes with a panicked exodus from US debt and currency. Such a meltdown would be 10 on a scale of 1 to 10 wheres last Fall [2008] was perhaps a 2 or 3, at best. "
Come to think of it, we should all become bankers and just lend money to each other. Imagine how many green shoots that would fertilize.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
I traded out of my short term gold and silver positions today. I still have massive long position -- but short-term the COTs do not look favourable. I think we are in for another round of forced deleveraging across multiple asset classes.
Let's take bets on how far a global equity crash kicks the USDX. 81? 89? 72?
I don't think equities will crash. I think both bonds and equities will come down together. Gold refuses to go under 930 for very long. With about 25 trillion US dollars flying all over the world suddenly come back home. I don't know. I've never seen a reserve currency get dumped. It's gotta be a bit unpredictable. But if you're looking for something like the last crash I don't think that would be wise. It'll be more like a completely frozen everything while people timidly and forcefully try to re-evaluate everything.
You might be right. Nothing would surprise me anymore, not even USDX 92.
...some serious daily turbulence, as depicted here -
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM:SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p10561220599