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Hinde Capital On How Pervasive "Realism Driven" Fear Is Paralyzing Rational Thought And "Keeping Us Awake At Night"

Tyler Durden's picture


Ben Davies, HindeSight, January 2011

Nessun Dorma: "None Shall Sleep" 2011 (pdf)



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Tue, 01/18/2011 - 11:32 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Valium anybody?

2 for the price of 1


Tue, 01/18/2011 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Hinde sight is 20/20.

Can we have some fore-warned looking analysis now?


Tue, 01/18/2011 - 11:35 | Link to Comment unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture


looking at this market, its up, when C -- government owned -- couldn't even make its numbers with the new particularly accommodating accounting "rules", AAPL faces a real crossroads, and is 20% of the NASDAQ trading, and we have 43 million people on food stamps.

and retail has left the market in droves...

and the market is up....

who is buying  the stock and what happens when they leave?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:14 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

AAPL brought in all the dip buyers as expected this morning. Earnings this evening should put it right back to where it was before the Jobs announcement. Just how the game works now and very predictable. 

Citi still put up some big revenue vs a loss last year. While not a great report, it's leaps and bounds ahead of 2009/2010. It's all about improvement and we're seeing that.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:21 | Link to Comment Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

Nice guess.  Why don't you state how many shares you bought today and at what price?  Otherwise you're just another spammer.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:33 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Been holding AAPL for quite some time as most everyone here knows. Not a nice guess, pretty easy to buy dips like this on AAPL. It's the best company on the planet with tons of growth ahead. Whole thing was engineered with the announcement on a holiday. 

Just play the game, it's not that difficult.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 13:14 | Link to Comment SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

Pretty obvious they have a blowout number or it wouldn't have been set up this way, and close to break even looks like the goal... long term, "the party's over" IMO.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 13:44 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Reggie thinks AAPL's got some serious problems going forward.  I get the impression is that he's given it a lot more thought than you have.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 14:02 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

No we don't know harry. One minute your a student paying for your edumacation by being a stock market wizard chugging through school to fulfill the rediculously stupid 150 hours of cpa credits. The next minute you work at a dildo factory and drive a brand new bmw.

Game over it's not that difficult.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:24 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Harry now simply an Apple spambot...pathetic.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
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One word.


Tue, 01/18/2011 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Regulatory capture is our new reality. Largely hidden and poorly organized, it will eventually coalesce and emerge as the fascism codified in all those BTFD! comments.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 11:42 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
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Hayek was a lone voice crying out in the wilderness, a prophet who predicted the coming of St Vincent and his future supernatural battles with the fearsome demon dwarf GG

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 11:45 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Maybe some are abstaining from the debacle? I make a conscience choice to not involve myself in the rhythm and drum section of the retail sales process any longer.

Just kidding! Buy! The Dips!!! You Dips!!!!


Tue, 01/18/2011 - 11:59 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
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Only a global gold standard will end the Hell we are about to enter.  No matter what fiat currency reigns supreme, the urge to inflate it will persist.  And because of the way FOREX, derivatives, and modern finance are structured, when one prints, it is the same as everyone printing.  All paper fiat is fungible.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:32 | Link to Comment Sean7k
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Couldn't agree more. As the Bankers and large corporations are the main beneficieries of inflatable funny money, perhaps the answer is for the people the world over to go on their own gold or silver shell based system and tell the banks to pound sand. We don't need a "standard" we need the freedom to use the monetary substitute we prefer. 

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 13:54 | Link to Comment jeffgroove102
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And because of the way FOREX, derivatives, and modern finance are structured, when one prints, it is the same as everyone printing.  All paper fiat is fungible.

Bingo! And yet people whom do not own the metals cannot seem to get this, and then they marginalize anyone whom talks about owning gold as a nut job. Gotta wonder how much longer this tired meme can continue.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:59 | Link to Comment Boonie
Boonie's picture

agree re the hell caused by fiat and all of its progeny, but i do not believe a gold standard is an answer, at least as historically applied .  fundamental problem of a gold standard is price of gold is fixed vis a vis the fiat currency .  this is my understanding.  reference point gold as proposed by zoellick or freegold of fofoa is the answer imo.  plus return to a gold standard would not result in the recapitalization of the global monetary system that is required.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:02 | Link to Comment janchup
janchup's picture

Now I understand that the fear I experience at 2:30 a.m. every early morning is 100% rational.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:07 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

I get up at 2:30 every night...turn on Bloomberg and see what is happening in Asia.....then I go pee...I don´t know which one is more productive...

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 13:52 | Link to Comment gaoptimize
Tue, 01/18/2011 - 14:15 | Link to Comment Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

At least you get up to go pee................couldn't resist that reply.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Why should we stay up at night worrying? Hold PMs and let the fools print all the paper bs that their hearts will come to disaster in the end.

In fact Ireland has just printed Euro 51 Billion without even permission of the ECB or any issuance of bonds to cover the issuance.

If Ireland can print money without ECB approval why should California, Illinois, NY, Nevada, Florida, et al, refrain from doing the same?

How would you like to be a hard working German citizen and find that Ireland is printing your money by the billions of Euros...while you are diligently work for your Euros?

If Ireland can go this route why should Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Greece refrain from printing their own Euros?

To say that the printing is out of control is not to do the situation justice.

"The Irish Central Bank has crossed the Rubicon in European Union currency terms.  They have printed up about 25% of their GDP in electronic credits, and stuffed those credits into their banks.  These deposits, if you will, do not have new debt issued behind them.

This is a form of hyperinflation if you will, at least in context that a Central Bank, with no actual printing press, or a functioning bond market, has now electronically printed up new currency units for their banks without issuing debt behind these actions.

While this has happened before in history, it has not happened in the Euro currency project officially before today. This act is going to move the monetary policy of the union, to the individual capitals.  The capacity to print electronic credits, with out the creation of cash currency or debt, is a new wrinkle in the economic landscape."


Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

+100, but they didn't print money- they did something much worse to my mind- they created credits and stuffed them into the banks balance sheets. What accounting system allows for that? Who is to say it isn't happening all over the Central Bank world? Why would you buy bonds, knowing the value could be the result of phantom deposits?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 14:12 | Link to Comment Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

Pretty sure that's same thing as "Quantitative Easing" -- Fed credits bond sellers' accounts with electronic credits (but do not let the word out - the Fed doesn't really have any money!).  Albeit Ireland is doing it with a currency shared with others. 

But in reality, as a reserve currency, the US$ is a currency shared with others.  So Germany's sentiment about Ireland's actions are congruous with many countries' thoughts about US QE.  Nothing too shocking here -- more of the same.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 14:28 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

The problem is it ISN'T the same thing. The FED goes through the charade of issuing bonds. This was an addition to the balance sheet- on one side only. It no longer balances! They have thrown accounting out the window.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:20 | Link to Comment janchup
janchup's picture

Sleep tight: “a gigantic entrenched corporate client state ‘managed’ by a 150-year-old political duopoly, desperately wrestling with the tertiary stage of a collapsing social Ponzi scheme”

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:21 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well these Wall St types who are now sleepless at night should have spoken up when all this fiasco started rolling 2 years ago. But they wanted the free money, now theyre real nervous. Oh well, suck down more valiums Wall St and hope the day rioters show up there on Wall and K streets busting up the place and demanding your heads isnt today at least.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Ben Davies is a well spoken investor with the gold (and therefore) credibility to back him up.

This time, "Debt: There Is No Jubilee"

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:30 | Link to Comment Djirk
Djirk's picture

before my micro econ professors started on his whole supply and demand BS, he said the real drivers of the market are fear, greed and envy. OK he forgot vanity but got most of it right.


Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:37 | Link to Comment nontaxpayer
nontaxpayer's picture

I hope Davies fixes all the typos and grammatical errors before sending this to his investors. Gives a sloppy picture.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:48 | Link to Comment Sabremesh
Sabremesh's picture

Good stuff, but Hinde Capital is preaching to the converted on ZH.

A few typos in there, though (eg Weimar not Wiemar).

Also, in the final section: "Japan has $30 trillion of debt, some 60% of GDP"? I don't think so.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 13:00 | Link to Comment jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

ROFL, empiricism?  Empiricsim sucks.  Lots of flaws. Just because you follow this DOES NOT mean you get a true answer.

But in true Pavarotti fashion (and power like the three tenors), when it comes to Glass-Steagall, how it'll be implemented, the switchover from British Fascist Corporate Imperial Monetarism, to American Credit system I say this...

"All'alba vincerò!
vincerò, vincerò!"


P.S. Her name is the Queen of England.  It doesn't help to keep it secret dumb bitch...we can smell the fish n chips from here.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 13:02 | Link to Comment DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

Climate Change?  Good Christ.  Idiots

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 15:05 | Link to Comment Segestan
Segestan's picture

Hinde needs to stay clear of mankind issues where a moral high ground might seem right and stick to economic, political and demograhic reality.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 15:43 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Global warming is a commie fraud --  the dangerous commies need to stay away from our food supplies and away from our energy supplies and given no validation or consideration in financial reports in the same breath as morality.


Tue, 01/18/2011 - 16:06 | Link to Comment Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

But Obama was supposed to bring the "Change".

Yes we can! -- (Oh, yes we can certainly monetize the fucking world)

I like Gerald Celente the best, a very outspoken person.


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