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Hinde Capital On What To Do When There Is No Debt Jubilee
A whopping 55 page presentation from Hidne Capital summarizing the key legacy dynamics of the credit boom, and what the future holds.
Debt: there is no jubilee (pdf)
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Not yet, but there maybe soon
There is no joy in Mudville...
What the future holds?
Not much of anything...the future has already been consumed with glee and the cannabalisation is only beginning.
All the inflationists are hoping for a debt jubilee and a get out of jail free card...problem is they have provided enough technology to have rendered themselves useless for the most part. Where this goes is probably beyond comprehension right now.
The world has expanded hundreds of years unnaturally into the future. The consequences of the wealth gap at this juncture, given the necessary glass ceiling for wealth creation, are going to be severe. Presently, I see no viable mechanism to divest our present course/existing class/caste system. Its effects will only become more and more obvious over time, given our likely future.
People also think there is going to be enough money and wherewithal to keep up with all the world killing technologies we've developed in the run up. I hope so, but I certainly don't presume it will occur.
I very much agree with the sentiment, but I think it's not quite right. If we'd really "expanded" hundreds of years into the future, we'd have actually built the technological infrastructure to greatly improve likelihood of our long-term sustainability.
I'd say what we've done instead is consume hundreds of years of future resources to overdevelop a 20th-century model of living, which never had the potential to work for very long.
I see your point, but couldn't every previous generation have said the same thing about their respective generations? Are we any greedier or wasteful than those that came before us?
we were greedy & wasteful because we were "nudged" by Wall St. & "incentivised" by our Government .......... think Alan Greenspan, stock market, ever-rising 401K's & housing prices ...........those of us who were just born into that culture knew no better, this is the world they created for us. ......... & now it is all being taken away by those same entities & it's not going to be pretty.
No it's not going to be pretty. They are hoping to chop off about 90% of the population.
"I can hire half of the working class to kill the other half"
-Jay Gould
Expansion can be fruitful (infrastructure) or unuseful (credit -> ipods -> pollution)... certainly, our population has expanded considerably... based upon expectations of continued productivity that requires finite and scarcer resources... obviously it will not end well.
You presume that just because we linger on for a couple hundred years that we necessarily develop anything meaningful and, further, that this development will not come at considerable expense to our sustainability. Needless to say, our development thus far has come at considerable expense to our sustainability and another couple hundred years of it would ensure that humans will not be around any longer or, at least, in a vastly diminished capacity. In other words, you cannot cherry pick our development and place it in some vacuum filled with unicorns and skittles.
I don't presume much. I believe it is definitely within our capability to improve our efficiency of lifestyle--we're pretty smart monkeys. I make no grandiose prediction about whether we will or won't.
If anyone is cherry-picking "our development," it's the folks predicting total catastrophe and extinction in the next hundred years, twenty years, whatever. Our big problems got rolling with the fossil-fuel era, which is a blink of an eye placed in the context of the modern human's time on Earth. There will be great pain in any global population correction, but there WILL NOT be extinction. Small pockets of resourceful individuals in low-population regions will regain the ability to sustain long-term communities.
The apocalypse is a very popular idea mainly because people don't like the idea of the party going on without them. "If *I'm* going to go in the next cataclysm, EVERYONE is gonna have to die!"
I predict it's not going to work out that way. I don't expect to be one of the survivors, though.
Monetary Mikado. Bernanke's favorite pasttime?
In Other Words...
After the Bank of England and the UK's stooge political class bankrupted the country bailing out UK's TBTF banks and the world's 2nd most corrupt financial sector aka City of London...
You British sheeple must pay...
Put a Beard on Merv and You Have Ben
You English peasants must pay with austerity for the stupidity and thievery of Queeny and her Oligarchy...
Well, they should be used to that by now.
Same as you guys, then. The best thing about the UK is that there are fewer peasants to start with...
...55 pages i will not be reading...it is not necessary. many are still under the impression that they can dictate reason, common sense, and values...they fail to realize that people will determine their own fate regardless of advice from financial advisors. people are and will continue to give themselves their own jubilee...they have been doing so for about three years and counting..."fill-in-the-blank" capital fails to see reality here, in my opinion...but they are small potatoes right?...sure. these people have a conscience and are well aware of what their priorities are and they disregard "laws" for the sake of survival...and i notice that applies to "big" money..."smart" money. 55 pages of advice that can be learned from the ones actually living their jubilee in the street...and their advice would most likely be free, sincere, and true...pdf away boys and girls...and add a few graphs while you are at it...or open your eyes and stand up and be counted.
Good luck with that. They're pitching a gold fund Mr. Philosophy.
...quite aware of that mr. eastwood...do you recall standing up to corruption and defending some gold claims by some common folk yourself there, pale rider?
Sarah Wheeler: Who are you? Who are you... really?
The Preacher: Well, it really doesn't matter, does it?
...or just an actor and an avatar?
There most certainly *is* a Jubilee.
It's not when debts are "forgiven". It's when they're defaulted on.
(Which by the way, was likely the scenario for the original Jubilee as well. If you have uncontrolled defaults, it is a far better policy decision to pretend one has permitted the situation to occur rather than to fight what is otherwise unstoppable).
We will have our Jubilee as well. Don't worry.
The problem in our case is that with proper record keeping, the jubilee may create perpetual classes. In other words, the stigma of default will remain long after the price has been forgotten. We'll have a jubilee alright, but those fortunate enough to "win" at the wealth gap casino will be in a position of power not seen for centuries. We presume that the power structure will fall away with a collapse of the government. It will not, it will only change and, in substantial likelihood, be much less forgiving.
Buried in the 55 pages is the nugget something to the effect having a market without defaults is like religion without sin.
The day of reckoning is always looming. Best to fess up, acknowledge the fault, seek forgiveness and move on. Unfortunately, the bankers have too much pride to take this admirable course of action and the sovereign citizenry will not be accepting their apologies once that day arrives.
imo.
Another gold bubble parasite...
They are no better than GS you lemmings..
Deleveraging: Growth, Austerity, Devaluation or Default
Yup, that's pretty much what it's all about right there. That's the whole picture.
They will instruct their government lackey's to fill up the camps and seize property before they forgive debts.
They could have done this in one page. Maybe one sentence. Let's try....
When everyone is on the hyperinflation station, gold Bitchezz!
What I am coming to understand it that it WILL fail, and they may be able to keep this going for years still. Live life accordingly.
Lost in a Masquerade, George Benson
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpEfAV1T5b0
.
No jubilee? A damned shame. Jubilee is implied on the Liberty Bell but I hear it cracked.
If there was a debt forgiveness jubilee every fifth year would you loan out money in the third or the forth year? Obviously no loans would be made for years at at time and there would be no reliable credit system whatsoever.
We don't have a reliable credit system now.
What's your point? If the credit system is not reliable does it make sense to propose a solution which would also fail?
There are / were several aspects to the jubilee requirements. The 50 year program had to do with real estate and limited the amount of time a family could remain separated from their allotted plot. Lease agreements took into consideration that only x number of years remained before the land reverted to the original holders.
Then after the 50th year, the family could elect to re-lease or move back onto it. These records were all 9-11nd in the 70 AD sack of the temple in Jerusalem which destroyed not only any Isrealite / jew from legitimately tracing their family's lineage to an original tribe but destroyed the written / legal documents needed to establish / re-establish chain of ownership.
I wanna see Goldman get fucked like a nerdy girl on prom night.
It may have occurred to a few others, that are not busy squandering their time in filthy the pursuit of filthy lucre or a perfect score on the latest game video, that an Old Testament prescription like this would cause the anti-semitic 'thinkers' to reassess one or two of their biases.
The descendants of a tribe that can produce such enlightened legislation should perhaps be afforded the extenuations that all peoples claim when guilt or innocence is proclaimed in events such as the current predicament the world finds itself.
Hinde Capital is pretty good. Of course, the world is broke-- still.
The only way out is to inflate the currency -- which is de facto default.
So that's what they're doing. It's always 'worked' before.
Know it, breath it, love it, because we can't change it.
Perhaps no official jubilee. But when there is no mail service and the bank down at the corner is a burnt out shell and you have no idea if anyone living wants your mortgage payment it has the same effect.
The longer they kick the can and avoid any default the greater the chances the end collapse will be of that sort.
Just decide to give yourself a "debt jubilee."
It's already happening on an individual basis. Why wait for "permission" or some "official decree"?
JUST DON'T FUCKING PAY ANYTHING ANYMORE!
PS - this CAPTCHA THING IS BULLSHIT!
Correct. Once you understand that:
fiat money == fraud
debt money == fraud
fractional reserve == fraud
... you have no obligation to pay; and ethically you almost have an obligation to not pay (or just run off copies of FRNs on a laser printer to repay).
A fifth alternative for debt reduction the Author omitted is to target loans in the future. This works for China. Allow debt only for building productive infrastructure. Most of the issuance of debt today goes to wasteful activities: M&A, state&federal government programs, defense, speculation, stock buy-backs etc. Put the rates at 20% for those activities and 1% for industrial expansion, infrastructure, and research and development.
It's how you spend debt money that counts!
Perhaps we misunderstand "Jubilee Year".
It would seem enormously wise to declare a Jubilee Year in which all debts become unenforcible.
Thus credit will always be extended to persons who have high credibility...real credibility. Such parties will always make true effort to repay debt regardless of opportunity to legally default.
Know your client.
Unenforceable debt would apply where any unfairness was involved, such as trickery or misunderstanding or non-transparency or threats/pressures, even medical emergencies or starvation.
What's to complain?
Perhaps we misunderstand "Jubilee".
It would seem enormously wise to declare a Jubilee in which all debts become unenforcible.
Thus credit will always be extended to persons who have high credibility...real credibility. Such parties will always make true effort to repay debt regardless of opportunity to legally default.
Know your client.
Unenforceable debt would apply where any unfairness was involved, such as trickery or misunderstanding or non-transparency or threats/pressures, even medical emergencies or starvation.
What's to complain?
Perhaps we misunderstand "Jubilee".
It would seem enormously wise to declare a Jubilee in which all debts become unenforcible.
Thus credit will always be extended to persons who have high credibility...real credibility. Such parties will always make true effort to repay debt regardless of opportunity to legally default.
Know your client.
Unenforceable debt would apply where any unfairness was involved, such as trickery or misunderstanding or non-transparency or threats/pressures, even medical emergencies or starvation.
What's to complain?
That is what I have been trying to remember reading a few months ago about leviticus. I think it should be done and forgive peoples debt. Because there is so much private and public debt that their is no way to pay it off. Besides, by wiping the slate clean it would enable the economy again.